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Hillary overwhelming favorite to win Democratic Party presidental nomination. This from Betfair Sportsbook pic.twitter.com/PknJupwC1J
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Labour bounce back into the lead in this week's ELBOW, after a Tory lead of 0.4% last week.
12 polls with fieldwork end-dates 5th-11th April, sample 14,570
Lab 34.3% (+0.5)
Con 33.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 13.7 (nc)
LD 8.2 (+0.2)
Green 4.9 (+0.1)
Lab lead 1.2% (+1.6)
* Biggest Lab lead since 15th February, and their highest ELBOW score since Xmas week - another holiday period!
* Lowest Con ELBOW score since 9th March!
* Biggest LD score since 24th August 2014!
* UKIP's slow decline halted for now (13.7 two weeks in a row), but still below where they were at end of August 2014
* Greens' decline also halted, but still below where they were in late October 2014
Will this post-Easter bounce for Lab last, or will the previous trend of ever-smaller Lab leads and nascent Tory lead return next week?
Struck me as an odd way to keep the troops happy in a marginal seat. Perhaps the Labour ground war is weak, or divided.
No sign of any colours in windows or on estate agent type posts - though two Conservative billboards - one with Ed in Salmond's pocket.
That seems somewhat unlikely.
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Labour, while 24 % disagreed.
So on a net basis
+14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
YouGov Times poll
43% of voters said that the health service would get worse under a Tory government, compared with 25% for Labour.
39% said that it would improve under Lab, while 24 % disagreed. +14% say the NHS would improve under Lab, -19% for the Tories
Hillary win would be boring if it's too easy. Let us hope it is not.
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Guardian front page -
Labour’s big promise: no extra borrowing
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/trfvIVSY07
Was there a delay in your post appearing here or have I had too much Bacardi tonight
Nick SuttonVerified account
@suttonnick Monday's Telegraph front page:
Labour plea to voters: the economy is safe with us
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers
Would be great if they exceed that.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CCa89eaWgAAXzW_.jpg
Do you have any changes to your GE 2015 forecast yet?
Fair enough.
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Sun front page:
No Ed for business
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/U7Xahji3IX
Yet another letter,this time from 100 small traders.
Labour will get between 15-45 gains from the Conservatives. No more than 11 gains from the Lib Dems, and lose between 24-38 seats to the SNP.
Labour's ceiling is 290 seats. But that's if absolutely everything goes in their favour.
Harry Cole @MrHarryCole
If Labour manifesto is as costed as they're boasting it's going to be another terrible week for the Tories. Where is the magic money tree?
https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/587365322715492353
How the hell can you have a tie when there is a 7 seat market ?
Can you stop the blatant partisanship while you are editing atleast?
It`s really annoying!
Nick Sutton ✔ @suttonnick
Monday's Times front page:
Passionate Cameron outlines his
Tory dream
#tomorrowspaperstoday #bbcpapers pic.twitter.com/qPQGZywCRe
3rd piece of election literature has arrived, and its a 2nd UKIP leaflet, a big improvement on the previous effort that I criticised on here.. this time its bright and informative with pictures of a purple horse beating a blue horse in a tight finish..
"Labour cant win, The Tories dont deserve to win.. UKIP can win"
Says Labour know they cant win and aren't trying.. but the only other bit of election propaganda I have received is the Labour leaflet.. surprisingly nothing from the Tories
To balance that, I drove to Brentwood today and there are Tory placards everywhere... probably saw a dozen. Havent even looked at the odds but as Eric Pickles is the MP guess its too short a certainty to bet on
I will look and edit...
1/100 best price!
It wouldn't be as much fun if he did?
take a chill pill, and smile.
Does anyone think Milliband might have been less crap than they thought?
"Yet another letter,this time from 100 small traders."
I think the Pimlico pole dancers are coming out for the Greens
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 5s 5 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
More a spirits man myself, but wine works as well.
slàinte mhath!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by three: CON 33%, LAB 36%, LD 7%, UKIP 13%, GRN 5%
EICIPM
Edit. It looks like they do. This has to be the most right wing Tory government since the early 80's.
Clegg talking to Miliband is another nail in his coffin.
Labour can work with (I say in the loosest sense of the word) PC, SNP, LD, DUP, SDLP, Respect, Green.
Conservatives have DUP, LD and UKIP.
Dave's potential allies are skinny.
Tories gain Glasgow North?
Love it!
The most outlandish Con gain is probably Stirling in Scotland I reckon. And I'd want about 10 million to one on it.
Top left corner of YG site
You mean that the Tories are piste off?
No hopers (almost).
Can't say I've noticed anything much on the doorstep - two Con->Lab switchers and one the other way, but otherwise much as usual. FWIW one Con->Lab switcher was motivated by the £1M IHT promise, which is irrelevant up here - "I see the Tories are just looking after themselves again, I've had enough of that". The Lab->Con one woudn't say why!
"Labour can work with (I say in the loosest sense of the word) PC, SNP, LD, DUP, SDLP, Respect, Green."
Apart from UKIP who I would say are now to the left of the Tories I can't see any party touching the Tories with a bargepole. They've gone nasty again
Depends if Miliband comes up with a big rail announcement tbh. That could swing it.
Lab 34.3% (+0.5)
Con 33.1 (-1.0)
UKIP 13.7 (nc)
LD 8.2 (+0.2)
Green 4.9 (+0.1)
Lab lead 1.2% (+1.6)
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587369426271477760
Berwickshire Roxburgh Selkirk remains a delicious mystery.
#megapollingmonday
CON woeful, no fight, no good ideas, heading for defeat!
I as a working class CON supporter (apparently in the top 1% income wish I could see it) condemn the total failure of CON to send out any sensible message to decent working class people who want to get on and whose vote they rely on!
Budget = absolute rubbish, ISA to buy will inflate house market and tax free interest proposals means everyone has to fill in a tax return
CAMO's 3 day volunteering will cost business - and worst
Let's hammer working people to pay for IHT breaks!!!!! Why do CAMO and OSBO take from working people to pay for those with inherited wealth?
That's why we are behind in the polls. That's why we will lose. LAB will get 300 we will be lucky to get 230. I live in London and there will be an 8% swing against us here because not everyone has the Dave and George family money who are the only beneficiaries in CON policies!
PS Smarmeron
I still reckon 290 for EIC looks about right for now.
If the rest of the campaign goes like the first 2 weeks over 300 a distinct possibility for LAB.
EWNBPM looking remote tonight but still over 3 weeks to go.
PS - GO LYNTON!!!!
The Conservative IHT policy announcement is a disappointment. In fact, it looks pretty bonkers to me. If I understand it correctly, a widow living in a house which has grown in value to a chunky sum, but with no other assets and with minimal income, would have a perverse tax incentive not to do the sensible thing and downsize. That makes no sense as a policy.
Still, in the overall scheme of things, the key point is that it remains the case that a Miliband government, and especially a weak minority Labour government in thrall to the SNP, will be a disaster, and anyone who hasn't yet taken whatever protective measures they can should get on with it. Sadly, most people are not in a position to protect themselves.
The few euro sceptic MP's in your party are your best MP's.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
But enjoy the 1.2% Lab lead while you can!