I still expect the Tories to sneak it but if anyone is to blame for it being so tight it's got to be Cameron. Who in their right mind would employ Lynton Cosby? Surely after the Andy Coulson debacle the last thing you'd want running your campaign is another right wing sleazebag.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
DPM in talks with EIC and you trust he will prop up Dave?
I think the phrase in all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic will not stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
Nick Clegg still in Government. No matter who wins !
Can see it now.
I wrote about that a couple of years ago.
The Lib Dems/Clegg the only constant in government this decade.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
Ali Campbell's recent attack on Boris does, I think, show that Labour are scared sh8tless of him...
Boris argues the Conservative case, unapologetically, from first principles. Something I've never seen Cameron do, except when he's prepared (or been given) a set-piece speech.
On the downside, Boris is soft on immigration, very self-obsessed, does not have much time for detail and isn't particularly trustworthy. But there's never a perfect candidate.
The Sunday Times said today Liam Fox will throw his hat into the ring.
If he wins, I'm quitting the party.
Don't you already vote LD?
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
DPM in talks with EIC and you trust he will prop up Dave?
I think the phrase iN all likleyhood the electoral arithmetic doesn't stack up and you will have voted for a man prepared to prostitute himself to EIC
There's too much enmity between Ed and Nick for that.
I still have a property in Manchester Central.
Is it too late for me to register there and waste my vote with impunity?
Emnity won't be an issue when Nick gets another chance for the big Ministerial cars
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Our policies have been brilliant 2010 to 2015 except we should have cut all benefits but weren't allowed to by Nick
But the leadership is useless and we won't win again - we will be under a LAB led left wing regime for ever - no point voting
I am in a place of despair as well, Ave It. I wanted a Conservative government to ensure we were properly defended, bring immigration under control, radically reform our relationship with the EU, proudly stand up for the country, its culture, values and traditions, and put an end to Labour's socio-cultural policy obsessions.
Not impressed at all by the IHT wheeze - perverse incentives created both in the policy itself and in the pension changes dreamt up to "pay" for it. Politics elevated above economics.
Marginal rates of tax shouldn't jump up and then back down again - it's unfair and arbitrary. Both parties have form in this regard.
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
I remember the period very well. What was interesting about the mid-sixties until 1979 was that everyone knew the country was in a disastrous position, but voters kept voting for more fudging. Wilson fudged it. Heath fudged it, and when he finally got round to making a stand on 'Who governs Britain?' the answer was 'Dunno, but not you mate'. Callaghan spent his entire time fire-fighting.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
ARF!, not seen Basil this downhearted since omnishambles. Just bought a pile of Tramadol, something tells me his back is about to go and those PB Hodge polling goalposts wont carry themselves.
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 1m1 minute ago #Labour leads in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) since August 2014. Regain lead, w/e 12th April = 1.2%
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
I have a memory of a Nigel Lawson interview where when this is suggested and he starts talking about how the economy, employment and VI numbers were all ticking up before the Falklands.
But we'll never know.
(This might have been the series of Thatcher DVDs the Telegraph gave out a few years ago. I think they were expecting her to peg out.)
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
The campaign could change in the next few weeks but the first week or so is an example of how not to do it. Go personal on Miliband, make a total debacle of the will he/wont he tv debates, then first time they actually get to make the headlines it includes the words Tory, tax cuts and million.
Not complaining, but I hope someone at Tory HQ has kept the reciept they got when they bought Lynton Crosby.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think your summing up highlights one reason the problems in the 2nd paragraph have arisen. There seems to be a strand of thought, either by choice or out of confusion, that it wouldn't be that bad to lose now as Ed M will surely be so bad that they will rebound next time while also becoming more right wing or some such.
The problem is the idea Ed M will be a disaster is based on assuming he will be as extreme and uncautious as people believe, and personally I think he is too experienced and canny for that, he will be crappy but not a disaster. That would mean it is no guarantee the Tories will win outright in 2020, and their lack of enthusiasm for the fight this time will not necessarily pay off in 5 years.
Ed Miliband is a man who thinks, in all seriousness, that the next James Bond should be a woman.
Although he is tactically and strategically sharper than almost all Conservatives gave him credit for, but in both economic, social and cultural policy he is (unquestionably) an old-school Lefty.
If the Conservatives want to win next time, they need to win the intellectual arguments on values and principles first. And that is about so much more than a few PR stunts and contriving greater visual diversity of their candidate base.
Should be fun when we start getting the immigration figures under a miliband government
For a start,the looney left that run the labour party will want thousands more refugee's from Syria,that's just the start.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Daily Mail stuff is presumably all about getting UKIP back in the Con column. To be fair, that part of the plan may be working. It's just the rest of it at the moment...
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Seriously? Look, I expect Labour to win, and his personal comments about Miliband were uncalled for and unnecessary, but making uncalled for comments about the opponent is nothing special and certainly nothing confined only to one side of the political spectrum.
Night all. Prepare for Ed in No.10. My entirely unscientific prediction is the Tories have about a 10% chance of getting in (higher chance of being largest party though)
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
The Conservatives are going to have a big big problem if Labour chance the boundaries to a population basis as I suspect. Increasingly the Conservative vote trends white/Jewish but all other ethnicities trend more Labour I think.
This is one way Labour could be able to make use of it's current inefficiencies in Inner London vote.
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
I think Sean Fear said he thought his leadership had been terminal for the Conservative Party.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
I have a memory of a Nigel Lawson interview where when this is suggested and he starts talking about how the economy, employment and VI numbers were all ticking up before the Falklands.
But we'll never know.
(This might have been the series of Thatcher DVDs the Telegraph gave out a few years ago. I think they were expecting her to peg out.)
Thatcher was always going to be re-elected in 1983. Foot as LOTO saw to that. What Galtieri did was to make the victory bigger than it otherwise might have been.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Your right,it's a load of bollox.
Prudence rides again. We know how that ended.
With an unfunded tory £8bn NHS pledge and a £12bn black hole in unexplained welfare cuts.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Can't claim to be an expert on the Tory party, but Fallon seemed like a nice guy saying something he didn't mean under orders. When I have seen him on TV he seems like a reasonable guy, so was out of character and forced.
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
@compouter2 I have said before that Lynton has only ever had one strategy. For the Tories to change now, would be sensible, but also a huge step. 50/50 chance?
ARF!, not seen Basil this downhearted since omnishambles. Just bought a pile of Tramadol, something tells me his back is about to go and those PB Hodge polling goalposts wont carry themselves.
Fisher the Joker is a plonker !!
You realise Fisher currently forecasts an Ed Miliband Gov't right ?
The Conservatives are going to have a big big problem if Labour chance the boundaries to a population basis as I suspect. Increasingly the Conservative vote trends white/Jewish but all other ethnicities trend more Labour I think.
This is one way Labour could be able to make use of it's current inefficiencies in Inner London vote.
They won't get a gerrymander through on 270-275 MPs.
Our policies have been brilliant 2010 to 2015 except we should have cut all benefits but weren't allowed to by Nick
But the leadership is useless and we won't win again - we will be under a LAB led left wing regime for ever - no point voting
This time I agree with Ave It. There is no point for you to vote. And your pension contributions - the Tories are taking it and giving it to Londoner's children.
@compouter2 I have said before that Lynton has only ever had one strategy. For the Tories to change now, would be sensible, but also a huge step. 50/50 chance?
Not gonna happen. It either works or it doesn't. I'm still in the former camp.
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
I have a memory of a Nigel Lawson interview where when this is suggested and he starts talking about how the economy, employment and VI numbers were all ticking up before the Falklands.
But we'll never know.
(This might have been the series of Thatcher DVDs the Telegraph gave out a few years ago. I think they were expecting her to peg out.)
Thatcher was always going to be re-elected in 1983. Foot as LOTO saw to that. What Galtieri did was to make the victory bigger than it otherwise might have been.
Correct. She probably would have won with a very small overall majority.
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
Listen here you downcast Tories. You are talking like all is lost. But, you know, you know you have a secret weapon.... Grant the Schnapper, wonderkid, darling of the UK, he of the stinking rich, you just need to deploy Grant and a majority is nailed on.
Cameron and Osborne and Crosby have kept the Schapper secret because they know that when he is unleashed victory is certain. It is only a matter of time when we will see Grant in full throttle.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Can't claim to be an expert on the Tory party, but Fallon seemed like a nice guy saying something he didn't mean under orders. When I have seen him on TV he seems like a reasonable guy, so was out of character and forced.
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
I agree massive over reaction to tonights poll still all to play for
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
I think you have hit the nail on the head with your comments on UKIP making inroads in the north. Labour will continue to push their progressive agenda which whilst appealing to their voters in London and other metropolitan areas, will not appeal to many of their northern voters. UKIP will hopefully be able to take some of Labour's strongholds which the Tories did not stand a chance in.
Absurd. 'Strongholds'? All UKIP might do is deny an opportunity for labour to lose in their marginals.
Heywood and Middleton, Great Grimsby, Rother Valley, Rotherham. None of which are marginals.
Coming within 600 votes in a seat where UKIP did not try particularly hard suggests they can make inroads or am I being absurd? Please correct me if I am wrong but I don't think Heywood and Middleton has been considered a marginal seat for a long while/if ever.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Can't claim to be an expert on the Tory party, but Fallon seemed like a nice guy saying something he didn't mean under orders. When I have seen him on TV he seems like a reasonable guy, so was out of character and forced.
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
It does make cracking viewing though. Big Tory lead tomorrow and it will be Cameron majority nailed on.....is nailed on.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
Welcome. That's why I support controlled immigration, and a massive increase in housing supply.
The Conservatives have disappointed on both, with only minor reforms to each. Labour I expect to be far worse on the former, and make only limited progress on the latter.
Their work on the latter will be easily undone by wrecking the economy.
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
I have a memory of a Nigel Lawson interview where when this is suggested and he starts talking about how the economy, employment and VI numbers were all ticking up before the Falklands.
But we'll never know.
(This might have been the series of Thatcher DVDs the Telegraph gave out a few years ago. I think they were expecting her to peg out.)
Thatcher was always going to be re-elected in 1983. Foot as LOTO saw to that. What Galtieri did was to make the victory bigger than it otherwise might have been.
The issue wasn't the 1983 election itself, but getting there in one piece. The unions were out to destroy the government's ability to run the country, just as they had destroyed all the previous governments from In Place of Strife onwards. Without the Falklands factor, Maggie would simply not have had enough political capital to take them on.
1. There should be one, because the Heath & Wilson options are bad!
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
I remember the period very well. What was interesting about the mid-sixties until 1979 was that everyone knew the country was in a disastrous position, but voters kept voting for more fudging. Wilson fudged it. Heath fudged it, and when he finally got round to making a stand on 'Who governs Britain?' the answer was 'Dunno, but not you mate'. Callaghan spent his entire time fire-fighting.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
The polls started turning for the Tories around February 1981 though? Before the Falklands...
No doubt the Falklands sped things up, but I think Maggie would have won in 83 even without that...
In all seriousness a lot of people would have been travelling today at the end of the Easter holidays. The morning fast ferry from Dublin to Holyhead was full this morning, though many of its passengers were less full than when they boarded by the time it reached Holyhead, so rough were the seas...
Remember that if say half of one slice of electorate is away, it makes no difference to the polls (which will simply upweight the other half) unless the half that are away differ in some unexpected way from the rest. For instance, if Tories currently on holiday were more or less loyal than Tories not currently on holiday. It doesn't seem very likely.
I guess the manifestos may move polling around a bit, but I expect we'll be back where we were in a week.
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
If you find (as I think you will) that Clegg then joins Labour to make up a Miliband coalition, you'll have recreated the perfect 2010 tactical Labour voter experience. :-)
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
Listen here you downcast Tories. You are talking like all is lost. But, you know, you know you have a secret weapon.... Grant the Schnapper, wonderkid, darling of the UK, he of the stinking rich, you just need to deploy Grant and a majority is nailed on.
Cameron and Osborne and Crosby have kept the Schapper secret because they know that when he is unleashed victory is certain. It is only a matter of time when we will see Grant in full throttle.
I am sure multi-millionaire internet marketing guru Grant Shapps still has a few tricks up his sleave.
Rather amusingly a chap called Michael Green is taking on Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
Is Ed still planning Mugabe style land grabs to build house's or has he moved on to another mad policy?
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Can't claim to be an expert on the Tory party, but Fallon seemed like a nice guy saying something he didn't mean under orders. When I have seen him on TV he seems like a reasonable guy, so was out of character and forced.
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
It does make cracking viewing though. Big Tory lead tomorrow and it will be Cameron majority nailed on.....is nailed on.
No it won't, even with a big Tory lead. The passion and pessimism may spike from the single polls and some few switch fews back and forth, but it is one of the bigger fallacies on here that it only occurs from those single polls. 'Look at people overeacting to this one poll' it is said, but in fact is is the trend. Lab 4 up, Con 4 up, tie, continues the current trend. Con 4 up, Con 4 up, Con 4 up would not. We are getting the first sort at the moment, and so the pessimism ratchets up the longer the wait for the latter goes fruitless.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
Is Ed still planning Mugabe style land grabs to build hose's or has he moved on to another mad policy?
The last we heard Ed's brilliant wheeze was to encourage housebuilding by fining housebuilding companies who had the temerity to buy land to build houses on.
It looks like Ed will become PM. And he will be the most left-wing and disastrous Prime Minister in living memory. Truly, truly awful. I'd actually prefer Gordon Brown, and massively prefer Tony Blair.
I expect to actively detest and despise every single one of Miliband's policies, each of which will damage this country. But the Conservatives have been timid, apologetic, complacent, and coy, and just simply lost the values arguments. And the electorate simply doesn't realise the parlous state we're still in.
However, there is some (small) silver lining. I also expect Ed to become extremely unpopular inside a year. Labour are in a far worse strategic position IMHO. Their vote is at risk of haemorrhaging to UKIP in the North, the Greens in urban areas, as well as the SNP, in the next parliament.
If a strong opposition Tory party of 280-285 seats can hold together, under the leadership of Boris, there is a prospect of grinding Labour down through trench warfare, absorbing UKIP defectors if Farage loses, further consolidating at the Lib Dems expense (particularly if they do a deal with Labour) and going for an outright win in 2020.
If Ed does somehow become PM the resulting Tory civil war may make his life easier than it would otherwise be.
I'm not sure there will be much of a Tory civil war to be honest...
There will be.
As night follows day.
I posted last night that I cannot see how the Tories could cope with losing. Armed with a popular leader, economy and stable coalition they are facing the Ed's and Labour's woeful economic polling. The Tories will be so angry- they'll blame the electorate for sure, each other for sure, and anyone else for sure. If they cannot win this election is there any possible election they could win? Starter for ten.
Not impressed at all by the IHT wheeze - perverse incentives created both in the policy itself and in the pension changes dreamt up to "pay" for it. Politics elevated above economics.
Marginal rates of tax shouldn't jump up and then back down again - it's unfair and arbitrary. Both parties have form in this regard.
It's the sort of absurd policy making that you would how would be severely punished by the electorate. Unfortunately I think Balls is even worse for that sort of thing.
In all seriousness a lot of people would have been travelling today at the end of the Easter holidays. The morning fast ferry from Dublin to Holyhead was full this morning, though many of its passengers were less full than when they boarded by the time it reached Holyhead, so rough were the seas...
Remember that if say half of one slice of electorate is away, it makes no difference to the polls (which will simply upweight the other half) unless the half that are away differ in some unexpected way from the rest. For instance, if Tories currently on holiday were more or less loyal than Tories not currently on holiday. It doesn't seem very likely.
I guess the manifestos may move polling around a bit, but I expect we'll be back where we were in a week.
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
If you find (as I think you will) that Clegg then joins Labour to make up a Miliband coalition, you'll have recreated the perfect 2010 tactical Labour voter experience. :-)
In all seriousness a lot of people would have been travelling today at the end of the Easter holidays. The morning fast ferry from Dublin to Holyhead was full this morning, though many of its passengers were less full than when they boarded by the time it reached Holyhead, so rough were the seas...
Remember that if say half of one slice of electorate is away, it makes no difference to the polls (which will simply upweight the other half) unless the half that are away differ in some unexpected way from the rest. For instance, if Tories currently on holiday were more or less loyal than Tories not currently on holiday. It doesn't seem very likely.
I guess the manifestos may move polling around a bit, but I expect we'll be back where we were in a week.
I'm voting to make sure Dave remains PM after May.
If you find (as I think you will) that Clegg then joins Labour to make up a Miliband coalition, you'll have recreated the perfect 2010 tactical Labour voter experience. :-)
If the Lib Dems join Labour (and why would they when the SNP will have sufficient seats to make a left wing coalition possible), then Clegg won't be in charge. the enmity between Clegg and Cameron is synthetic; between Clegg and Miliband its real.
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Your right,it's a load of bollox.
The pledge is for the deficit to come down every year. As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it.
I think that's a really smart pledge. I've never voted Labour in my life, but that's defanged my biggest worry about a Milliband administration.
I have no idea what Cameron's playing at. Failed on the deficit, immigration and defence. I can't actually believe he's a Tory. All the announcements so far seem to be aimed at the SE.
I think the likes of the Daily Mail in particular have been actively unhelpful to the Conservatives this Election Cycle.
A new day, a new article attacking Miliband's kitchen, or ex girlfriends, or his Dad. It's the paper that's cried wolf too many times and I reckon it's political articles are viewed with about the same level of seriousness as the Daily Mash.
Leveson and the ridiculous over-reaction to it from alot of the centre-right media may well win this for Labour.
The Mail/Express/Scum/Times have done a brilliant job in rallying soft Labour voters to rally behind the party. And long may it last.
Fallon should get a knighthood , unless he already has one, for his services to elect a Labour government. Reminded everyone what a Nasty party really means.
Can't claim to be an expert on the Tory party, but Fallon seemed like a nice guy saying something he didn't mean under orders. When I have seen him on TV he seems like a reasonable guy, so was out of character and forced.
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
It does make cracking viewing though. Big Tory lead tomorrow and it will be Cameron majority nailed on.....is nailed on.
No it won't, even with a big Tory lead. The passion and pessimism may spike from the single polls and some few switch fews back and forth, but it is one of the bigger fallacies on here that it only occurs from those single polls. 'Look at people overeacting to this one poll' it is said, but in fact is is the trend. Lab 4 up, Con 4 up, tie, continues the current trend. Con 4 up, Con 4 up, Con 4 up would not. We are getting the first sort at the moment, and so the pessimism ratchets up the longer the wait for the latter goes fruitless.
We're just seeing level polls and variance around the zero mark to be honest. And that's good enough for Ed.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
Is Ed still planning Mugabe style land grabs to build hose's or has he moved on to another mad policy?
The last we heard Ed's brilliant wheeze was to encourage housebuilding by fining housebuilding companies who had the temerity to buy land to build houses on.
What is really funny is that Ed has set up so many hostages to fortunes with his silly rhetoric on house building and lowering house prices and capping people's bills, as though all these things are so easy...
Unpopularity the like of which we've not seen before surely awaits when people realize all his promises count for nothing and instead we just lurch from crisis after crisis after crisis....
@Richard_Nabavi The problem governments have is that they need rising house prices to maintain the myth of a growing economy. Build sufficient affordable houses, and the price will plummet. Interesting choice, and one somebody will have grasp
Fecked up last post. Meant to congratulate Ave It on his football team this year, although they will lose out in play offs. I have always sensed he is a closet Labourite and I am sure he will do the right thing on May 7th. You know you want to, Ave It.
To be fair to Ave It, he is a "working" Tory [ there are a few ! ].
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
Listen here you downcast Tories. You are talking like all is lost. But, you know, you know you have a secret weapon.... Grant the Schnapper, wonderkid, darling of the UK, he of the stinking rich, you just need to deploy Grant and a majority is nailed on.
Cameron and Osborne and Crosby have kept the Schapper secret because they know that when he is unleashed victory is certain. It is only a matter of time when we will see Grant in full throttle.
I am sure multi-millionaire internet marketing guru Grant Shapps still has a few tricks up his sleave.
Rather amusingly a chap called Michael Green is taking on Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield.
I just love Grant. That cheeky grin, the twinkle in his eyes, that youthful face. Grant Shapps is the believable face of the Tories. Jezzer hunt comes a close second. When Hunt speaks of his compassion for the NHS my heart melts. His love of the over 75's and his wish to get them seen within 24 hours is unparalleled in political vision. Go Jezzer.
Delurking - fed up with Tory overload in comments. House prices are too high and Osborne makes an announcement today that will put them higher still. Labour will increase the house supply which is the only way to give Generation Rent hope of being owners.
Is Ed still planning Mugabe style land grabs to build hose's or has he moved on to another mad policy?
The last we heard Ed's brilliant wheeze was to encourage housebuilding by fining housebuilding companies who had the temerity to buy land to build houses on.
What is really funny is that Es has set up so many hostages to fortunes with his silly rhetoric on house building and lowering house prices and capping people's bills, as though all these things are so easy...
Unpopularity the like of which we've not seen before surely awaits when people realize all his promises count for nothing and we instead we just lurch from crisis after crisis after crisis....
It's the Food Banks numbers which will get him. There's no escaping that one, given his ludicrous and high-profile blaming of this government for the increasing take-up. Maybe he'll have to outlaw them.
Oh do give it a rest please!! You always fail to mention the fact that Cameron's satisfaction ratings among 'Conservative members' remains very high. Its far more telling that people like yourself continue to peddle the myth that Cameron has somehow failed you and folk like Sean Fear personally. And all because he took the party from a position of being a very poor and ineffective Opposition, languishing with less than 200 MP's for a decade to within touching distance of a majority, and then into Government and a successful five year Coalition. Cameron has been a very effective Leader and PM, again, check his personal ratings among the electorate. He even more popular in Scotland than Ed Miliband right now!
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
I think Sean Fear said he thought his leadership had been terminal for the Conservative Party.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
One danger when everyone expects a hung Parliament is that everyone can come out with daft populist policies safe in the knowledge that they'll end up on the cutting room floor in the post-election negotiations.
Separately, if Labour's first budget would cut the deficit every year, are we to infer that they have no intention of actually ever eliminating it?
What is so special about eliminating the deficit ? in how many years in the 80 years , was there a surplus ?
When Tories want a surplus, what they really want is to destroy the public sector except defence !
Oh do give it a rest please!! You always fail to mention the fact that Cameron's satisfaction ratings among 'Conservative members' remains very high. Its far more telling that people like yourself continue to peddle the myth that Cameron has somehow failed you and folk like Sean Fear personally. And all because he took the party from a position of being a very poor and ineffective Opposition, languishing with less than 200 MP's for a decade to within touching distance of a majority, and then into Government and a successful five year Coalition. Cameron has been a very effective Leader and PM, again, check his personal ratings among the electorate. He even more popular in Scotland than Ed Miliband right now!
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
I think Sean Fear said he thought his leadership had been terminal for the Conservative Party.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
Very good post Fitalass. I do not know what planet these right wing ideologues live on. Cameron has been the best thing to happen to the Tories in a generation. If they think there is something better out there, good luck. Labour turned on Blair, but Blair was bonkers- he had to go.
O/T- noone is obviously watching the golf, but what a charismatic star golf has found in Speith.
That is about the least credible thing he has ever said.
Even his proposed tax hikes won't cover the pledges his party has made over recent years. How many times has the Bank Bonus tax been spent? Close to a dozen at last count. And that was before the EU bonus cap.
Your right,it's a load of bollox.
The pledge is for the deficit to come down every year. As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it.
I think that's a really smart pledge. I've never voted Labour in my life, but that's defanged my biggest worry about a Milliband administration.
I have no idea what Cameron's playing at. Failed on the deficit, immigration and defence. I can't actually believe he's a Tory. All the announcements so far seem to be aimed at the SE.
Ed has yet to spell out where he will cut. Considering he has opposed every spending cut this last parliament. And he hasn't said how much he will cut deficit each year by.it's very vague.
Oldest son is very happy tonight, he usually has a punt on a couple of golfers where he thinks they might have a chance and the odds are good. He put a tenner on both Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose to win the Masters about a week ago.
The Conservatives are going to have a big big problem if Labour chance the boundaries to a population basis as I suspect. Increasingly the Conservative vote trends white/Jewish but all other ethnicities trend more Labour I think.
This is one way Labour could be able to make use of it's current inefficiencies in Inner London vote.
Yes - plus they'll lower the voting age to 16, plus maybe make voting compulsory for your first GE (ie 16 to 20s) - do all that and Con will never, ever, have any chance whatsoever.
Oldest son is very happy tonight, he usually has a punt on a couple of golfers where he thinks they might have a chance and the odds are good. He put a tenner on both Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose to win the Masters about a week ago.
Finally, the golf. Speith is a revelation- the accuracy and cleanliness of his ball striking was astonishing- he was so far beyond the others. If he can figure out the blustery conditions of Links golf, the world is his.
I think that's a really smart pledge. I've never voted Labour in my life, but that's defanged my biggest worry about a Milliband administration.
I have no idea what Cameron's playing at. Failed on the deficit, immigration and defence. I can't actually believe he's a Tory. All the announcements so far seem to be aimed at the SE.
Smart as in "might actually make me vote Labour" or only as in "makes me feel slightly less appalled at the idea"? Just curious - there has been so little switching either way between Lab and Con that it's starting to seem like an uncrossable gulf.
@Richard_Nabavi The problem governments have is that they need rising house prices to maintain the myth of a growing economy. Build sufficient affordable houses, and the price will plummet. Interesting choice, and one somebody will have grasp
The decline in home ownership, especially amongst the young, means that the 2nd option will become more palatable.
'What is really funny is that Es has set up so many hostages to fortunes with his silly rhetoric on house building and lowering house prices and capping people's bills, as though all these things are so easy...'
Yes, Ed's promise to cut the cost of living, millions of voters now expecting to be better off with prices cut across the board and or a substantial salary increase in the next 12 months.
@Richard_Nabavi The problem governments have is that they need rising house prices to maintain the myth of a growing economy. Build sufficient affordable houses, and the price will plummet. Interesting choice, and one somebody will have grasp
The decline in home ownership, especially amongst the young, means that the 2nd option will become more palatable.
You think making voting compulsory for first time voters only is going to be a vote winner for the Labour party among that age group? I have always voted at every GE, but not sure I would have appreciated being singled out and then compelled to do so as a way to improve one parties chances. The SNP pushed for the lowering of the voting age for the Indy Referendum because they thought that younger voters would be more likely to favour independence, that didn't prove to be the case in the end.
The Conservatives are going to have a big big problem if Labour chance the boundaries to a population basis as I suspect. Increasingly the Conservative vote trends white/Jewish but all other ethnicities trend more Labour I think.
This is one way Labour could be able to make use of it's current inefficiencies in Inner London vote.
Yes - plus they'll lower the voting age to 16, plus maybe make voting compulsory for your first GE (ie 16 to 20s) - do all that and Con will never, ever, have any chance whatsoever.
'What is really funny is that Es has set up so many hostages to fortunes with his silly rhetoric on house building and lowering house prices and capping people's bills, as though all these things are so easy...'
Yes, Ed's promise to cut the cost of living, millions of voters now expecting to be better off with prices cut across the board and or a substantial salary increase in the next 12 months.
Can't wait.
And the cost of living crisis,hitting the poor,it be funny if ed put's up petrol,cigs and beer.
This place seems to have gone completely mad in the last hour.
I'd love to see a poll where they ask:
"Name as many things as you can that have happened in the GE campaign - ie anything any leader has said, anything any leader has done, any policy anyone has announced ....."
Seriously I doubt even 10% of people could name a single thing - other than that there was a debate. If anything I suspect the most quoted thing would be that the SNP are doing really well and will have a big impact.
I don't believe anything that has happened in the last two weeks is going to have any material effect on voting intentions.
Most of the comments on here are a colossal over-reaction.
Oldest son is very happy tonight, he usually has a punt on a couple of golfers where he thinks they might have a chance and the odds are good. He put a tenner on both Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose to win the Masters about a week ago.
Finally, the golf. Speith is a revelation- the accuracy and cleanliness of his ball striking was astonishing- he was so far beyond the others. If he can figure out the blustery conditions of Links golf, the world is his.
BBC Sporf (@BBCSporf) April 13 VIDEO: A 14 year-old Jordan Spieth predicts he will win The Masters one day! Dream come true!..bit.ly/1OqhWfm pic.twitter.com/A0zDVPC8Ou
Tyson, I am no golf fan. But I was struck by my oldest lad's enthusiasm when he singled out this very talented golfer as one to watch even before the Masters teed off last week when I asked him who he thought might win.
Oldest son is very happy tonight, he usually has a punt on a couple of golfers where he thinks they might have a chance and the odds are good. He put a tenner on both Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose to win the Masters about a week ago.
Finally, the golf. Speith is a revelation- the accuracy and cleanliness of his ball striking was astonishing- he was so far beyond the others. If he can figure out the blustery conditions of Links golf, the world is his.
This place seems to have gone completely mad in the last hour.
I'd love to see a poll where they ask:
"Name as many things as you can that have happened in the GE campaign - ie anything any leader has said, anything any leader has done, any policy anyone has announced ....."
Seriously I doubt even 10% of people could name a single thing - other than that there was a debate. If anything I suspect the most quoted thing would be that the SNP are doing really well and will have a big impact.
I don't believe anything that has happened in the last two weeks is going to have any material effect on voting intentions.
Most of the comments on here are a colossal over-reaction.
Nope,I've joined the bob sykes brand,he's proving himself right.
Oldest son is very happy tonight, he usually has a punt on a couple of golfers where he thinks they might have a chance and the odds are good. He put a tenner on both Jordan Spieth and Justin Rose to win the Masters about a week ago.
Finally, the golf. Speith is a revelation- the accuracy and cleanliness of his ball striking was astonishing- he was so far beyond the others. If he can figure out the blustery conditions of Links golf, the world is his.
BBC Sporf (@BBCSporf) April 13 VIDEO: A 14 year-old Jordan Spieth predicts he will win The Masters one day! Dream come true!..bit.ly/1OqhWfm pic.twitter.com/A0zDVPC8Ou
Such a nice story. The manner he won it was quite touching. It normally takes me a few years to take to sporting stars (i.e. Federer), but Speith- he really is someone that one warms to immediately- and players like Faldo only get adulation after their star has faded. Speith could be the next Sevvie.
Most birdies in Masters History, beating Phil's 25.
Tied Tiger's lowest score in Masters history at -18.
Second youngest winner in Masters history (Tiger).
Youngest wire to wire winner in golf history, tying Walter Hagen
He is an ardent Dallas Cowboys fan.
His class at the University of Texas will graduate next month, wondering what to do with their lives. His path looks set.
How different it might have been if his approach shot to 13 had been a foot shorter and fallen into Rae's Creek. But he took a risk and took the reward.
After Tiger shot this score they made wholesale changes to the course. Expect changes next year. Augusta doesn't think -18 is appropriate.
Oh do give it a rest please!! You always fail to mention the fact that Cameron's satisfaction ratings among 'Conservative members' remains very high. Its far more telling that people like yourself continue to peddle the myth that Cameron has somehow failed you and folk like Sean Fear personally. And all because he took the party from a position of being a very poor and ineffective Opposition, languishing with less than 200 MP's for a decade to within touching distance of a majority, and then into Government and a successful five year Coalition. Cameron has been a very effective Leader and PM, again, check his personal ratings among the electorate. He even more popular in Scotland than Ed Miliband right now!
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
I think Sean Fear said he thought his leadership had been terminal for the Conservative Party.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
Hi fitalass, spot on as always.
The most absurd thing of all is all this stuff posted on here about "insulting people". An insult is a personal thing - how can you insult someone you don't even know?
What it boils down to is that there are a number of people with views way out from the mainstream who have taken offence because Cameron has had the guts to handle issues like gay marriage in a common sense way in tune with 75% of the country.
RE: Crewe and Nantwich I find the Cheshire constituencies fascinating for this election, not least because there are all-out council elections in Cheshire West and Cheshire East going on at the same time, which changes the dynamic somewhat.
For example, where Labour might have previously put in a half-hearted effort in Eddisbury, they are going all-out to maximise the vote in Winsford for the Council, making them a decent bet for second place. Likewise, the Tory campaign in Ellesmere Port and Neston has been squeezed by putting in a heavy defense in City of Chester and Weaver Vale.
Putting aside the fairly safe seats (Tatton - CON; Eddisbury - CON; Congleton - CON; Macclesfield - CON; Ellesmere Port and Neston - LAB; Halton - LAB; Warrington North - LAB). That leaves: - Weaver Vale (CON Maj 2.25%) - Warrington South (CON Maj 2.83%) - City of Chester (CON Maj 5.52%) - Crewe and Nantwich (CON Maj 11.84%)
Ashcroft recorded a 10% lead for Labour in City of Chester last month. A similar swing in Crewe and Nantwich makes that race very close indeed.
Agreed, a bit of perspective is needed here this weekend. Most of the country is enjoying the Easter break right now, the kids up here in Scotland are just entering their second week of their Easter hols. I won't be around as much following politics for the next week as I am on holiday Auntie duties, so just looked out and dusted down National Trust family membership card etc and been told my laptop will be confiscated if I am caught visiting this site among others too often.
This place seems to have gone completely mad in the last hour.
I'd love to see a poll where they ask:
"Name as many things as you can that have happened in the GE campaign - ie anything any leader has said, anything any leader has done, any policy anyone has announced ....."
Seriously I doubt even 10% of people could name a single thing - other than that there was a debate. If anything I suspect the most quoted thing would be that the SNP are doing really well and will have a big impact.
I don't believe anything that has happened in the last two weeks is going to have any material effect on voting intentions.
Most of the comments on here are a colossal over-reaction.
Most birdies in Masters History, beating Phil's 25.
Tied Tiger's lowest score in Masters history at -18.
Second youngest winner in Masters history (Tiger).
Youngest wire to wire winner in golf history, tying Walter Hagen
He is an ardent Dallas Cowboys fan.
His class at the University of Texas will graduate next month, wondering what to do with their lives. His path looks set.
I am usually very partisan on sports, and I have followed Justin Rose for years. But tonight I wanted Speith to win because of the way he carried himself. In Wood's lean years we have seen a variety of imposters, but Speith strikes me as someone who will take golf up a notch or two
Tiger's post-game interviews and press conferences are always a bit zen like - Tiger never gives you anything.
Today he revealed that he dislocated a finger on his second shot on 9, hitting a root in the pine needles. It clearly hurt when shown on TV. But then he said he replaced it himself on the back 9.
Asked to evaluate the state of his game, he said he was pleased that he was able to come to Augusta and 'contend'. He didn't contend for a minute. BUT his game is coming back. He's never going to be the Tiger of old, but when he can put it all together he may indeed contend again one day.
RE: Crewe and Nantwich I find the Cheshire constituencies fascinating for this election, not least because there are all-out council elections in Cheshire West and Cheshire East going on at the same time, which changes the dynamic somewhat.
For example, where Labour might have previously put in a half-hearted effort in Eddisbury, they are going all-out to maximise the vote in Winsford for the Council, making them a decent bet for second place. Likewise, the Tory campaign in Ellesmere Port and Neston has been squeezed by putting in a heavy defense in City of Chester and Weaver Vale.
Putting aside the fairly safe seats (Tatton - CON; Eddisbury - CON; Congleton - CON; Macclesfield - CON; Ellesmere Port and Neston - LAB; Halton - LAB; Warrington North - LAB). That leaves: - Weaver Vale (CON Maj 2.25%) - Warrington South (CON Maj 2.83%) - City of Chester (CON Maj 5.52%) - Crewe and Nantwich (CON Maj 11.84%)
Ashcroft recorded a 10% lead for Labour in City of Chester last month. A similar swing in Crewe and Nantwich makes that race very close indeed.
It's going to make for an interesting night.
There's no Green candidate in Crewe and Nantwich, which will help Labour even further in that seat.
Most birdies in Masters History, beating Phil's 25.
Tied Tiger's lowest score in Masters history at -18.
Second youngest winner in Masters history (Tiger).
Youngest wire to wire winner in golf history, tying Walter Hagen
He is an ardent Dallas Cowboys fan.
His class at the University of Texas will graduate next month, wondering what to do with their lives. His path looks set.
I am usually very partisan on sports, and I have followed Justin Rose for years. But tonight I wanted Speith to win because of the way he carried himself. In Wood's lean years we have seen a variety of imposters, but Speith strikes me as someone who will take golf up a notch or two
Rory is not an impostor. Speith has had a good run and is clearly a major talent, but it's too early to say 'he's the man' yet. If we end up with a Jordan - Rory rivalry it'll be good for the game. The game needs rivalries, not a dominant single player.
It's not Tiger's fault, but although he increased purses at events, and increased TV audiences, and crowds - he didn't increase the number of golfers, it decreased, he didn't get more blacks into the game.
One last Masters note - although Ben Crenshaw announced that this year's Masters would be his last in competition, that doesn't mean he won't be at Augusta National for Masters Week next year.
On the Tuesday night of Masters Week there is a Champions Dinner at the club, for all previous Masters champions, with a menu picked by last year's champion. Byron Nelson used to be the host, and on his retirement Ben Crenshaw became the host. He has let it be known he will continue to be.
Don't be surprised if he pops up on the Par 3 competition either. Being a Masters Champion is a lifetime commitment.
Incidentally, Jack Nicklaus' wife Barbara organizes a Tuesday night dinner for the spouses of those at the Champions Dinner - one of whom is her husband.
Oh do give it a rest please!! You always fail to mention the fact that Cameron's satisfaction ratings among 'Conservative members' remains very high. Its far more telling that people like yourself continue to peddle the myth that Cameron has somehow failed you and folk like Sean Fear personally. And all because he took the party from a position of being a very poor and ineffective Opposition, languishing with less than 200 MP's for a decade to within touching distance of a majority, and then into Government and a successful five year Coalition. Cameron has been a very effective Leader and PM, again, check his personal ratings among the electorate. He even more popular in Scotland than Ed Miliband right now!
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
I think Sean Fear said he thought his leadership had been terminal for the Conservative Party.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
Popularity figures among party members for leadership mean nothing, people upset tend to leave and therefore it is possible to be both deeply unpopular and at the same time increase your popularity rating from party members. Out of curiousity I went to look for party membership prompted by this conversation
Looks like those unhappy people voted with their feet to me so I certainly view the "popularity" figure with a certain contempt. Same naturally applies to all parties with a falling membership, it distorts those figures
Popularity figures among party members for leadership mean nothing, people upset tend to leave and therefore it is possible to be both deeply unpopular and at the same time increase your popularity rating from party members. Out of curiousity I went to look for party membership prompted by this conversation
Looks like those unhappy people voted with their feet to me so I certainly view the "popularity" figure with a certain contempt. Same naturally applies to all parties with a falling membership, it distorts those figures
is that adjusted for those that have shuffled off this mortal coil?
The conservative party has these demogrraphic problems, the saem as teh republicans in the US, doesn't it? In that sense, Dave is no doubt right to try to get the younger metrosexuals in. The older lads may be more certain to vote, but they're also more certain to be leaving us soon
Popularity figures among party members for leadership mean nothing, people upset tend to leave and therefore it is possible to be both deeply unpopular and at the same time increase your popularity rating from party members. Out of curiousity I went to look for party membership prompted by this conversation
Looks like those unhappy people voted with their feet to me so I certainly view the "popularity" figure with a certain contempt. Same naturally applies to all parties with a falling membership, it distorts those figures
is that adjusted for those that have shuffled off this mortal coil?
The conservative party has these demogrraphic problems, the saem as teh republicans in the US, doesn't it? In that sense, Dave is no doubt right to try to get the younger metrosexuals in. The older lads may be more certain to vote, but they're also more certain to be leaving us soon
Frankly I have no idea, I was merely pointing out that saying x is popular with party members is pretty meaningless when you have lost a load of members. Some undoubtedly died, some left like SeanF because they didn't like Cameron, some left for other reasons.
The simple fact is we don't know the proportions therefore the "fact" that a party leader has good popularity amongst members is meaningless as we can't measure how many have dropped membership because they don't like the leader. Quoting the fact as some sort of trump card is therefore risible
One danger when everyone expects a hung Parliament is that everyone can come out with daft populist policies safe in the knowledge that they'll end up on the cutting room floor in the post-election negotiations.
Separately, if Labour's first budget would cut the deficit every year, are we to infer that they have no intention of actually ever eliminating it?
What is so special about eliminating the deficit ? in how many years in the 80 years , was there a surplus ?
When Tories want a surplus, what they really want is to destroy the public sector except defence !
The national debt has almost doubled in the last five years.
As the debt increases, the debt servicing costs also increases meaning that a larger proportion of total government spending goes on debt servicing cost rather than spending on government services.
Public sector employees should want a balanced budget.
Comments
2. I think you're wrong about the 1983 election.
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Thatcher book recommendation: "Just in Time: inside the Thatcher revolution" by John Hoskyns.
It's out of print, but your local library could probably get hold of a copy.
The Lib Dems/Clegg the only constant in government this decade.
For EIC at this rate.
Now I wonder if it will ever happen. Goodnight.
Marginal rates of tax shouldn't jump up and then back down again - it's unfair and arbitrary. Both parties have form in this regard.
Maggie finally came to the rescue, but it was a bloody close thing. Before the Falklands, she didn't look as though she'd last the course.
He just wanted PM on his CV - worst CON PM ever! He can go back to his family money now!
GN all go Ed hope Justine is measuring up the curtains. Nicola can help
#Labour leads in ELBOW (Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week) since August 2014. Regain lead, w/e 12th April = 1.2%
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/587381169324498944
But we'll never know.
(This might have been the series of Thatcher DVDs the Telegraph gave out a few years ago. I think they were expecting her to peg out.)
Ignore all polls till after the new prince is born. Nothing like a royal baby to make the plebs grateful after all?
Not complaining, but I hope someone at Tory HQ has kept the reciept they got when they bought Lynton Crosby.
Night all. Prepare for Ed in No.10. My entirely unscientific prediction is the Tories have about a 10% chance of getting in (higher chance of being largest party though)
This is one way Labour could be able to make use of it's current inefficiencies in Inner London vote.
I'm not sure I'd go that far, but it's bloody close. He's managed to shed almost half the membership (including me, and Sean) by being complicit in allowing his aides to piss them off and slag them off.
A brave leader would have led his party, not told them to FIOFO.
Thats what you call Prudence?
I don't really understand the Tory pessimism though, this site is so bipolar, its always either too hot or too cold, never the right temperature, and no one ever says they don't know, its always...boom or bust!
I have said before that Lynton has only ever had one strategy.
For the Tories to change now, would be sensible, but also a huge step.
50/50 chance?
Listen here you downcast Tories. You are talking like all is lost.
But, you know, you know you have a secret weapon.... Grant the Schnapper, wonderkid, darling of the UK, he of the stinking rich, you just need to deploy Grant and a majority is nailed on.
Cameron and Osborne and Crosby have kept the Schapper secret because they know that when he is unleashed victory is certain. It is only a matter of time when we will see Grant in full throttle.
Coming within 600 votes in a seat where UKIP did not try particularly hard suggests they can make inroads or am I being absurd? Please correct me if I am wrong but I don't think Heywood and Middleton has been considered a marginal seat for a long while/if ever.
'Thats what you call Prudence?'
You forgot the 'no more boom or bust',.
The Conservatives have disappointed on both, with only minor reforms to each. Labour I expect to be far worse on the former, and make only limited progress on the latter.
Their work on the latter will be easily undone by wrecking the economy.
No doubt the Falklands sped things up, but I think Maggie would have won in 83 even without that...
I guess the manifestos may move polling around a bit, but I expect we'll be back where we were in a week. If you find (as I think you will) that Clegg then joins Labour to make up a Miliband coalition, you'll have recreated the perfect 2010 tactical Labour voter experience. :-)
Rather amusingly a chap called Michael Green is taking on Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/apr/10/man-called-michael-green-to-stand-against-grant-shapps-in-election
Bollox,let Russia ,Iran and Saudi Arabia take they fair share,they have more to do with the civil war than we do pal.
Why should we take any notice of you on immigration when you want open borders for everyone.
I have no idea what Cameron's playing at. Failed on the deficit, immigration and defence. I can't actually believe he's a Tory. All the announcements so far seem to be aimed at the SE.
Unpopularity the like of which we've not seen before surely awaits when people realize all his promises count for nothing and instead we just lurch from crisis after crisis after crisis....
The problem governments have is that they need rising house prices to maintain the myth of a growing economy.
Build sufficient affordable houses, and the price will plummet.
Interesting choice, and one somebody will have grasp
Jezzer hunt comes a close second. When Hunt speaks of his compassion for the NHS my heart melts. His love of the over 75's and his wish to get them seen within 24 hours is unparalleled in political vision. Go Jezzer.
When Tories want a surplus, what they really want is to destroy the public sector except defence !
'It does make cracking viewing though. Big Tory lead tomorrow and it will be Cameron majority nailed on.....is nailed on.'
Yes, you may have prematurely creamed your jeans again and we won't hear from you until there's another Labour lead.
Cameron has been the best thing to happen to the Tories in a generation. If they think there is something better out there, good luck. Labour turned on Blair, but Blair was bonkers- he had to go.
O/T- noone is obviously watching the golf, but what a charismatic star golf has found in Speith.
PoliticsHome @politicshome
Tomorrow’s Daily Mail front page: Show passport to use the NHS pic.twitter.com/ecGx3tum24
'What is really funny is that Es has set up so many hostages to fortunes with his silly rhetoric on house building and lowering house prices and capping people's bills, as though all these things are so easy...'
Yes, Ed's promise to cut the cost of living, millions of voters now expecting to be better off with prices cut across the board and or a substantial salary increase in the next 12 months.
Can't wait.
Not until you get immigration under control.
I'd love to see a poll where they ask:
"Name as many things as you can that have happened in the GE campaign - ie anything any leader has said, anything any leader has done, any policy anyone has announced ....."
Seriously I doubt even 10% of people could name a single thing - other than that there was a debate. If anything I suspect the most quoted thing would be that the SNP are doing really well and will have a big impact.
I don't believe anything that has happened in the last two weeks is going to have any material effect on voting intentions.
Most of the comments on here are a colossal over-reaction.
April 13
VIDEO: A 14 year-old Jordan Spieth predicts he will win The Masters one day! Dream come true!..bit.ly/1OqhWfm pic.twitter.com/A0zDVPC8Ou
Nope,I've joined the bob sykes brand,he's proving himself right.
'And the cost of living crisis,hitting the poor,it be funny if ed put's up petrol,cigs and beer.'
That's guaranteed in his first budget.
lowest 36 and 54 hole total in Masters history.
Most birdies in Masters History, beating Phil's 25.
Tied Tiger's lowest score in Masters history at -18.
Second youngest winner in Masters history (Tiger).
Youngest wire to wire winner in golf history, tying Walter Hagen
He is an ardent Dallas Cowboys fan.
His class at the University of Texas will graduate next month, wondering what to do with their lives. His path looks set.
How different it might have been if his approach shot to 13 had been a foot shorter and fallen into Rae's Creek. But he took a risk and took the reward.
After Tiger shot this score they made wholesale changes to the course. Expect changes next year. Augusta doesn't think -18 is appropriate.
The most absurd thing of all is all this stuff posted on here about "insulting people". An insult is a personal thing - how can you insult someone you don't even know?
What it boils down to is that there are a number of people with views way out from the mainstream who have taken offence because Cameron has had the guts to handle issues like gay marriage in a common sense way in tune with 75% of the country.
I find the Cheshire constituencies fascinating for this election, not least because there are all-out council elections in Cheshire West and Cheshire East going on at the same time, which changes the dynamic somewhat.
For example, where Labour might have previously put in a half-hearted effort in Eddisbury, they are going all-out to maximise the vote in Winsford for the Council, making them a decent bet for second place. Likewise, the Tory campaign in Ellesmere Port and Neston has been squeezed by putting in a heavy defense in City of Chester and Weaver Vale.
Putting aside the fairly safe seats (Tatton - CON; Eddisbury - CON; Congleton - CON; Macclesfield - CON; Ellesmere Port and Neston - LAB; Halton - LAB; Warrington North - LAB). That leaves:
- Weaver Vale (CON Maj 2.25%)
- Warrington South (CON Maj 2.83%)
- City of Chester (CON Maj 5.52%)
- Crewe and Nantwich (CON Maj 11.84%)
Ashcroft recorded a 10% lead for Labour in City of Chester last month. A similar swing in Crewe and Nantwich makes that race very close indeed.
It's going to make for an interesting night.
'The pledge is for the deficit to come down every year.
As he doesn`t make many pledges,he probably intends to keep it'
Until he tells us by how much it's a totally worthless pledge and will be seen as such by the money markets.
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/article1543026.ece
Today he revealed that he dislocated a finger on his second shot on 9, hitting a root in the pine needles. It clearly hurt when shown on TV. But then he said he replaced it himself on the back 9.
Asked to evaluate the state of his game, he said he was pleased that he was able to come to Augusta and 'contend'. He didn't contend for a minute. BUT his game is coming back. He's never going to be the Tiger of old, but when he can put it all together he may indeed contend again one day.
It's not Tiger's fault, but although he increased purses at events, and increased TV audiences, and crowds - he didn't increase the number of golfers, it decreased, he didn't get more blacks into the game.
Crossover.
On the Tuesday night of Masters Week there is a Champions Dinner at the club, for all previous Masters champions, with a menu picked by last year's champion. Byron Nelson used to be the host, and on his retirement Ben Crenshaw became the host. He has let it be known he will continue to be.
Don't be surprised if he pops up on the Par 3 competition either. Being a Masters Champion is a lifetime commitment.
Incidentally, Jack Nicklaus' wife Barbara organizes a Tuesday night dinner for the spouses of those at the Champions Dinner - one of whom is her husband.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10316950/Conservative-Party-membership-has-halved-since-David-Cameron-and-clique-came-to-power.html
Looks like those unhappy people voted with their feet to me so I certainly view the "popularity" figure with a certain contempt. Same naturally applies to all parties with a falling membership, it distorts those figures
The conservative party has these demogrraphic problems, the saem as teh republicans in the US, doesn't it? In that sense, Dave is no doubt right to try to get the younger metrosexuals in. The older lads may be more certain to vote, but they're also more certain to be leaving us soon
The simple fact is we don't know the proportions therefore the "fact" that a party leader has good popularity amongst members is meaningless as we can't measure how many have dropped membership because they don't like the leader. Quoting the fact as some sort of trump card is therefore risible
As the debt increases, the debt servicing costs also increases meaning that a larger proportion of total government spending goes on debt servicing cost rather than spending on government services.
Public sector employees should want a balanced budget.