politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture f

Dair Really, the SNP have won one majority in the Scottish Parliament, one minority, and lost a referendum, virtually every other major party in the EU has a historically stronger record, and Syriza came from even further behind to win national power

@paulwaugh: Tories 1030pm break 2 stories, one five years rail freeze, the other volunteering leave. Miliband now on ITV. Interesting late nite politics

Scott_P said:

Allegra Stratton on Newsnight says The Big Society is making a comeback. 3 days off work for volunteering

Lol, maybe they will get Steve Hilton back as well!

old_labour said:

Ed Miliband pledges to freeze rail fares for 5 years in real terms.

Wow.Is that true or have you just made it up?

Great HIGNFY advert

Tykejohnno said:

Some putting it will cost £1.8bn,any detail how cons going to fund it.

Newsnight costed it at 100 million a year

SMukesh said:

old_labour said:

Ed Miliband pledges to freeze rail fares for 5 years in real terms.

Wow.Is that true or have you just made it up?

I think the story is the Tories changing the cap from RPI+1 to RPI.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

I like the Scottish poll for my betting position. Closing out is for fearties.

Could the English please start making up their minds?

I only closed out, because you mentioned earlier on that night.

Pulpstar - Yes Carmichael is the enemy of PBers

Don't blame me! I only thought about it. I think about five hundred things an hour. Some of them are even sensible.

It's all your fault, telling me to back the SNP in all those long odd constituencies last summer.

I'm not sure I'll ever forgive you for that.

In case it hasn't been mentioned before

The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.

The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.

Newsnight just called Ed, David

RobD said:

SMukesh said:

old_labour said:

Ed Miliband pledges to freeze rail fares for 5 years in real terms.

Wow.Is that true or have you just made it up?

I think the story is the Tories changing the cap from RPI+1 to RPI.

Interesting.

Scott_P said:

MarqueeMark said:

Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.

@MattChorley: Farage's People's Army could be about to be overtaken by the Lib Dems. THE LIB DEMS. http://t.co/oC2Wofohn5 http://t.co/4ohaUPYb0e

That won't make a difference to the army. As much as I want UKIP to do well on the basis I want more parties to have more seats (no more than 5 though I hope, as I have money on that), I do get bemused at the sorts of comments about how LibLabCon etc are irrelevant and don't get it how the whole country hates them, even as they will still get millions of votes and maybe even the LDs could get equal with them (though I have my doubts about that one). I don't see those sorts of comments as much now though, I get the feeling UKIP are feeling more realistic, and are happy with the prospect of 3-10 seats, which in the upcoming parliament could still be pretty influential.

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

I like the Scottish poll for my betting position. Closing out is for fearties.

Could the English please start making up their minds?

I only closed out, because you mentioned earlier on that night.

Pulpstar - Yes Carmichael is the enemy of PBers

Don't blame me! I only thought about it. I think about five hundred things an hour. Some of them are even sensible.

It's all your fault, telling me to back the SNP in all those long odd constituencies last summer.

I'm not sure I'll ever forgive you for that.

Given the cringeworthy arselicking he's got from you ever since he is probably finding it difficult to forgive himself

Pong said:

Pulpstar said:

Btw:


Tories Most Seats, Labour Most votes is a REAL possibility

Cover this now if you have a red there tbh

I think someone might have tipped that at 50/1 a while back....

Take a bow Mr. Herdson.

66/1 actually.

It's hard to come up with a good name for a fuzzy ideology, especially as opponents will easily make fun of it. I recall seeing a comment about how The Big Society just sounded like an NHS campaign about Obesity in Britain, and I cannot get it out of my head. It's another reason it seems like a lot of posters and the like are a waste of time.

david_herdson said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
(compared to last week)
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1

I'm going to make ...

Hope you had the tissues handy...

I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !

The reason the SNP are so good, is that everyone underestimates the SNP.

They are, by far, the most effective and successful political party in Western Europe.

CDU.

Or possibly Luxembourg's CSV.

The difference with the CSV (especially) and the CDU is that they have long established bases. The SNP grew into where they are today, with skill, ability, turning down the option of money. Arbeiderpariet would be the the same ballpark as CSV and CDU if they hadn't ended up causing domestic terrorism. SNP are ahead, they're in a winning position but they're STILL trying to get the rest of Scotland on board. That's almost unique in a 50% VI party. It certainly is in Western Europe.

Not sure that this new market restricting Tory party will win any votes they didn't already have. Ed has already sewn that up, now the moves like this are just jumping on the bandwagon.

As I have said a lot of times, the only way the Tories can win a lot of votes is to make buy-to-let unprofitable. If it pisses off private landlords then so be it, they are going to vote Tory anyway. They literally have nowhere else to go. If they are going to make anti free market moves then the better way to do it is to hit the private rental sector.

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

I made that point yesterday.

In God we Truss?

I see there was a question on whether it getting to know the wives and families of the leaders is important, with a resounding no. Though if we are to be subjected to it we might as well formalise it across the board - have a partners debate for the 7 leaders. If they don't have won they can turn up themselves.

Also, imagine the pressure if you were involved but not yet married. 'Darling, it's been going great, and I think we should move to the next level...marriage? Oh no, I mean could you appear with me canvassing in Bootle?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

I made that point yesterday.

The Nats need to get out and vote. Complacency is the enemy !

I hope they put those 100,000 members to good work on election day wheeling Granny out the hospital on her drip to put a cross in the SNP box as she "doesn't vote Labour for the first time in 50 years"

I fear tonight's Tory leads may not be enough to cancel out Lab's part-ELBOW 2.5% lead (up until Survation/Panelbase).

Bob__Sykes said:

Now for the Question Time car crash to top off Black Thursday.

One stupid sentence from Fallon has totally derailed the Tory campaign and Liz Truss now having to eat a shit sandwich on QT defending the stupid old fart.

Yep.

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

But in that case either the government will lose English-only votes or every English-only vote will be well and truly determined by SNP MPs. Do you really think that's going to go down well?

Stephen Moss @StephenMossGdn

Tories are painting Miliband as driven, determined, resourceful and hugely successful with women. His ratings are going to soar

https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/586287989443190785

Stark_Dawning said:

Tykejohnno said:

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour · 5 mins5 minutes ago
Tories to promise to freeze rail fares in line with inflation for five years. Sounds good.

Some putting it will cost £1.8bn,any detail how cons going to fund it.

Why would anyone need to fund it? The inflation-busting fare hikes can only be for the rail companies to feather their own nests.

Just as they've been doing for the last five years. This is looks like a panic move. Tory freeze good, Labour freeze bad.

Didn't Cameron stab David Davis in the back (front?) in December 2005?

Artist said:

david_herdson said:

Artist said:

A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.

You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?

The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.

I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.

Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.

I will be doing my weekend piece on precisely this point but to reply briefly, is Ed really going to say no if Cameron's already handed back his seals of office?

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

I made that point yesterday.

Ed Miliband as Prime Minister on 250 seats is entirely possible.

It is, looks like David Herdson is going to beat me to the thread on it

david_herdson said:

Artist said:

david_herdson said:

Artist said:

A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.

You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?

The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.

I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.

Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.

I will be doing my weekend piece on precisely this point but to reply briefly, is Ed really going to say no if Cameron's already handed back his seals of office?

Would the Lib Dems be up for a minority coalition ?

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

With Scotland lost, Labour need substantial gains just to stand still. The Midlands look really tough, The South is impossible, Yorkshire and the East hmm; and that basically leaves London, Wales and the NW. I cannot see where 30-40!gains are coming from, let alone the 50-60 required to be biggest party.

SouthamObserver said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Tykejohnno said:

Patrick Wintour ‏@patrickwintour · 5 mins5 minutes ago
Tories to promise to freeze rail fares in line with inflation for five years. Sounds good.

Some putting it will cost £1.8bn,any detail how cons going to fund it.

Why would anyone need to fund it? The inflation-busting fare hikes can only be for the rail companies to feather their own nests.

Just as they've been doing for the last five years. This is looks like a panic move. Tory freeze good, Labour freeze bad.

Yup. This won't help them.

"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

Pong said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !

I made that point yesterday.

Ed Miliband as Prime Minister on 250 seats is entirely possible.

Yet still lots of money wanting to back DC @ 1.9-2.0

I wouldn't take odds below 3.0 right now - if any serious punters disagree, I'd love to understand your rationale. Anyone?

2/1 is exactly my estimate of David Cameron's chances of staying Prime Minister. I'm betting accordingly.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Didn't Cameron stab David Davis in the back (front?) in December 2005?

Is Cameron Davis' brother from another mother? Or merely a fellow MP?

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

You have to Vote Tory now.

Looks like thanks to the Scots, we're going to experience partition in this country.

Labour have a disastrous record when it comes to partitioning countries.

Vote Tory to spare us a re-run of 1947

TheScreamingEagles said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"

You have to Vote Tory now.

Looks like thanks to the Scots, we're going to experience partition in this country.

Labour have a disastrous record when it comes to partitioning countries.

Vote Tory to spare us a re-run of 1947

Only a Labour win in Ilford North can bring stability to a Miliband Gov't.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

LibDems on 12 with ComRes? Must be an outlier!

Broken sleazy LDs on the rise? Doesn't sound right, that's for sure.

RochdalePioneers said:

Tories: intervention into electricity market bad. Fixing prices is a disgraceful attempt to manipulate prices. Don;t vote for Ed he is anti markets and that is anti business. Intervention into railway market good. Fixing prices is good for hard working families. Vote for Dave because fixing prices is pro markets and good for business

The railway market is regulated. And subsidised.

Flightpath said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Didn't Cameron stab David Davis in the back (front?) in December 2005?

Is Cameron Davis' brother from another mother? Or merely a fellow MP?

Old Etonian still scuppered working class lad's chances of leading the Tories!

Sunil_Prasannan said:

In God we Truss?

There's better channels for that sort of thing...

If the Tories do form the next government it's going to be one hell of a ride. There'll be the EU referendum and permanent confrontation with Scotland. Dull, it won't be.

Tissue_Price said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In case it hasn't been mentioned before

The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.

The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.

Mmmm.... lost deposits...

PS you can still get evens with betfair sportsbook on the Greens holding fewer than 20% of deposits. Should probably be 1/3.

But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode

How is our Pandas bet looking?

Tory lead in Ilford North's wards was only 2.0% in Redbridge Council election last year. It was 11.5% at the GE 2010!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

Tissue_Price said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

In case it hasn't been mentioned before

The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.

The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.

Mmmm.... lost deposits...

PS you can still get evens with betfair sportsbook on the Greens holding fewer than 20% of deposits. Should probably be 1/3.

But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode

How is our Pandas bet looking?

I've had worse bets.

PS "Clegg only" @ 25/1 in their "which of Farage/Clegg/Salmond will be MPs" might appeal.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Flightpath said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Didn't Cameron stab David Davis in the back (front?) in December 2005?

Is Cameron Davis' brother from another mother? Or merely a fellow MP?

Old Etonian still scuppered working class lad's chances of leading the Tories!

Yes. And I know you said 'stabbed in the front'. There was no implicit or explicit understanding between them.
In fact the back stabbing has all come from Davis, which is why he has shown himself to be unfit. So your analogy is quite fair - just from the wrong end of the telescope. And so too does Davis' backstabbing show up the veracity of Fallon's point. He was just hamfisted making it - although to be fair to him his remark was err, unremarkable in the context of bis overall attack on Miliband.