Dair Really, the SNP have won one majority in the Scottish Parliament, one minority, and lost a referendum, virtually every other major party in the EU has a historically stronger record, and Syriza came from even further behind to win national power
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
This is pretty much what Salmond said in February. Amendments are the key.
@paulwaugh: Tories 1030pm break 2 stories, one five years rail freeze, the other volunteering leave. Miliband now on ITV. Interesting late nite politics
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Now for the Question Time car crash to top off Black Thursday.
One stupid sentence from Fallon has totally derailed the Tory campaign and Liz Truss now having to eat a shit sandwich on QT defending the stupid old fart.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.
That won't make a difference to the army. As much as I want UKIP to do well on the basis I want more parties to have more seats (no more than 5 though I hope, as I have money on that), I do get bemused at the sorts of comments about how LibLabCon etc are irrelevant and don't get it how the whole country hates them, even as they will still get millions of votes and maybe even the LDs could get equal with them (though I have my doubts about that one). I don't see those sorts of comments as much now though, I get the feeling UKIP are feeling more realistic, and are happy with the prospect of 3-10 seats, which in the upcoming parliament could still be pretty influential.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Great news for lost deposit bets.
True, also good for my Greens to outpoll the Lib Dems bet.
It's hard to come up with a good name for a fuzzy ideology, especially as opponents will easily make fun of it. I recall seeing a comment about how The Big Society just sounded like an NHS campaign about Obesity in Britain, and I cannot get it out of my head. It's another reason it seems like a lot of posters and the like are a waste of time.
The rail freeze is a very Labour 2015 idea and volunteering leave is very Conservative 2010. The rail freeze may help in the commuter towns outside London.
@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead (compared to last week) SNP 49 +3 Lab 25 -4 Con 18 +2 LD 4 +1
I'm going to make ...
Hope you had the tissues handy...
I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !
The reason the SNP are so good, is that everyone underestimates the SNP.
They are, by far, the most effective and successful political party in Western Europe.
CDU.
Or possibly Luxembourg's CSV.
The difference with the CSV (especially) and the CDU is that they have long established bases. The SNP grew into where they are today, with skill, ability, turning down the option of money. Arbeiderpariet would be the the same ballpark as CSV and CDU if they hadn't ended up causing domestic terrorism. SNP are ahead, they're in a winning position but they're STILL trying to get the rest of Scotland on board. That's almost unique in a 50% VI party. It certainly is in Western Europe.
Not sure that this new market restricting Tory party will win any votes they didn't already have. Ed has already sewn that up, now the moves like this are just jumping on the bandwagon.
As I have said a lot of times, the only way the Tories can win a lot of votes is to make buy-to-let unprofitable. If it pisses off private landlords then so be it, they are going to vote Tory anyway. They literally have nowhere else to go. If they are going to make anti free market moves then the better way to do it is to hit the private rental sector.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
I think Lincoln and South RIbble are the only two marginals where the Greens aren't standing.
The rail freeze is a very Labour 2015 idea and volunteering leave is very Conservative 2010. The rail freeze may help in the commuter towns outside London.
I see there was a question on whether it getting to know the wives and families of the leaders is important, with a resounding no. Though if we are to be subjected to it we might as well formalise it across the board - have a partners debate for the 7 leaders. If they don't have won they can turn up themselves.
Also, imagine the pressure if you were involved but not yet married. 'Darling, it's been going great, and I think we should move to the next level...marriage? Oh no, I mean could you appear with me canvassing in Bootle?
Now for the Question Time car crash to top off Black Thursday.
One stupid sentence from Fallon has totally derailed the Tory campaign and Liz Truss now having to eat a shit sandwich on QT defending the stupid old fart.
Fallon scored a hit, bought the Trident discussion to the fore and flushed out responses from Labour and the SNP.
If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !
I made that point yesterday.
The Nats need to get out and vote. Complacency is the enemy !
I hope they put those 100,000 members to good work on election day wheeling Granny out the hospital on her drip to put a cross in the SNP box as she "doesn't vote Labour for the first time in 50 years"
Not sure that this new market restricting Tory party will win any votes they didn't already have. Ed has already sewn that up, now the moves like this are just jumping on the bandwagon.
As I have said a lot of times, the only way the Tories can win a lot of votes is to make buy-to-let unprofitable. If it pisses off private landlords then so be it, they are going to vote Tory anyway. They literally have nowhere else to go. If they are going to make anti free market moves then the better way to do it is to hit the private rental sector.
It's not an anti-free market move.
Rules of the concessions are simple: if fare income goes down, then it is balanced by an increase in subsidy.
This is basically a bung from taxpayers money to commuters in the South.
Now for the Question Time car crash to top off Black Thursday.
One stupid sentence from Fallon has totally derailed the Tory campaign and Liz Truss now having to eat a shit sandwich on QT defending the stupid old fart.
If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !
But in that case either the government will lose English-only votes or every English-only vote will be well and truly determined by SNP MPs. Do you really think that's going to go down well?
If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !
But in that case either the government will lose English-only votes or every English-only vote will be well and truly determined by SNP MPs. Do you really think that's going to go down well?
No - it was once the short campaign started as Mr Smithson well knows. Even I did and mentioned it on a recent thread. That change gave labour a lead. Mr Smithson is clearly desperate to rubbish the tories - he is becoming a one man BBC.
Tories are painting Miliband as driven, determined, resourceful and hugely successful with women. His ratings are going to soar
Or slippery, indecisive and a reputation for not telling the full story to those close to him - brother, partner-wife, ex girlfriend, Cameron on Syria...
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
I will be doing my weekend piece on precisely this point but to reply briefly, is Ed really going to say no if Cameron's already handed back his seals of office?
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
I will be doing my weekend piece on precisely this point but to reply briefly, is Ed really going to say no if Cameron's already handed back his seals of office?
Would the Lib Dems be up for a minority coalition ?
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
Confidence and Supply is absolutely on the table. All Ed needs to do is make one little change, one so small little change to Labour policy. He will.
If the SNP get 55 seats - which is looking a realistic possibility now, Ed can become PM on 265 !
With Scotland lost, Labour need substantial gains just to stand still. The Midlands look really tough, The South is impossible, Yorkshire and the East hmm; and that basically leaves London, Wales and the NW. I cannot see where 30-40!gains are coming from, let alone the 50-60 required to be biggest party.
Greg McClymont on Scotland Tonight looks like a broken man.
His Twitter feed is the epitome of Scottish Labour.
I've got £270 against him xD
If only one Labour seat fell to the SNP, I would put every penny on it being McClymont. 2011 tells you he;s dead, his reputation tells you he's dead, SLAB tells you he's dead. That he won't even get a Portlillo moment live tells you he's dead and buried.
A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
I don't think Labour would be up for running a minority government which is 60 odd seats away from passing anything. Labour would need a firm confidence and supply deal or a coalition with the SNP to make it stable and both seem off the table.
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
I will be doing my weekend piece on precisely this point but to reply briefly, is Ed really going to say no if Cameron's already handed back his seals of office?
Would the Lib Dems be up for a minority coalition ?
I don't see it - they might be up for a minority C&S, but the question then is with whom. Anyway, I'll go into this in more detail on Saturday. For now, to bed.
"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
The rail freeze is a very Labour 2015 idea and volunteering leave is very Conservative 2010. The rail freeze may help in the commuter towns outside London.
"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
You have to Vote Tory now.
Looks like thanks to the Scots, we're going to experience partition in this country.
Labour have a disastrous record when it comes to partitioning countries.
"TSE, Richard Nabavi, Flightpath, Scott P, Marquee Mark, Stark Dawning, Plato, Fitalass, can you hear me? TSE, I have a message for you in the middle of the election campaign. I have a message for you: Your boys took a hell of a beating! Your boys took a hell of a beating!"
You have to Vote Tory now.
Looks like thanks to the Scots, we're going to experience partition in this country.
Labour have a disastrous record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Vote Tory to spare us a re-run of 1947
Only a Labour win in Ilford North can bring stability to a Miliband Gov't.
@jonwalker121: Polling suggests Labour's non-doms policy is popular but listening to @Douglas4Paisley it seems Lab not really abolishing it outright #bbcqt
Exactly. They said that yesterday. They are not abolishing it at all, because that would cost money (Ed Balls was right)
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Mmmm.... lost deposits...
PS you can still get evens with betfair sportsbook on the Greens holding fewer than 20% of deposits. Should probably be 1/3.
But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode
Tories: intervention into electricity market bad. Fixing prices is a disgraceful attempt to manipulate prices. Don;t vote for Ed he is anti markets and that is anti business. Intervention into railway market good. Fixing prices is good for hard working families. Vote for Dave because fixing prices is pro markets and good for business
@jonwalker121: Polling suggests Labour's non-doms policy is popular but listening to @Douglas4Paisley it seems Lab not really abolishing it outright #bbcqt
Exactly. They said that yesterday. They are not abolishing it at all, because that would cost money (Ed Balls was right)
If the Tories do form the next government it's going to be one hell of a ride. There'll be the EU referendum and permanent confrontation with Scotland. Dull, it won't be.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Mmmm.... lost deposits...
PS you can still get evens with betfair sportsbook on the Greens holding fewer than 20% of deposits. Should probably be 1/3.
But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode
The Green Party's party political broadcast - shown on telly today - has to be one of the worst, if not *the* worst, in the history of political broadcasts.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
Mmmm.... lost deposits...
PS you can still get evens with betfair sportsbook on the Greens holding fewer than 20% of deposits. Should probably be 1/3.
But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode
How is our Pandas bet looking?
I've had worse bets.
PS "Clegg only" @ 25/1 in their "which of Farage/Clegg/Salmond will be MPs" might appeal.
Didn't Cameron stab David Davis in the back (front?) in December 2005?
Is Cameron Davis' brother from another mother? Or merely a fellow MP?
Old Etonian still scuppered working class lad's chances of leading the Tories!
Yes. And I know you said 'stabbed in the front'. There was no implicit or explicit understanding between them. In fact the back stabbing has all come from Davis, which is why he has shown himself to be unfit. So your analogy is quite fair - just from the wrong end of the telescope. And so too does Davis' backstabbing show up the veracity of Fallon's point. He was just hamfisted making it - although to be fair to him his remark was err, unremarkable in the context of bis overall attack on Miliband.
Comments
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586283587353370624
Tories to promise to freeze rail fares in line with inflation for five years. Sounds good.
Some putting it will cost £1.8bn,any detail how cons going to fund it.
Has me!
Labour need a minimum of 15 seats in Scotland to go into power in my opinion.
I'm not sure I'll ever forgive you for that.
The Green party will field parliamentary candidates in almost 95 per cent of seats in England and Wales, it emerged yesterday.
The selection of 535 candidates represents a major leap from the slate of 335 people that the party fielded in 2010. Almost 40 per cent of all Green candidates are women, a higher proportion of female representation than the other main Westminster parties.
One stupid sentence from Fallon has totally derailed the Tory campaign and Liz Truss now having to eat a shit sandwich on QT defending the stupid old fart.
As I have said a lot of times, the only way the Tories can win a lot of votes is to make buy-to-let unprofitable. If it pisses off private landlords then so be it, they are going to vote Tory anyway. They literally have nowhere else to go. If they are going to make anti free market moves then the better way to do it is to hit the private rental sector.
Also, imagine the pressure if you were involved but not yet married. 'Darling, it's been going great, and I think we should move to the next level...marriage? Oh no, I mean could you appear with me canvassing in Bootle?
18 to 24s: 42
65+: 181
And surprise surprise the result is a Con lead.
I hope they put those 100,000 members to good work on election day wheeling Granny out the hospital on her drip to put a cross in the SNP box as she "doesn't vote Labour for the first time in 50 years"
Rules of the concessions are simple: if fare income goes down, then it is balanced by an increase in subsidy.
This is basically a bung from taxpayers money to commuters in the South.
Stephen Moss @StephenMossGdn
Tories are painting Miliband as driven, determined, resourceful and hugely successful with women. His ratings are going to soar
Mr Smithson is clearly desperate to rubbish the tories - he is becoming a one man BBC.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/odd/snp-activist-caused-dog-to-lose-leg-claims-owner-1-3742128
I wouldn't take odds below 3.0 right now - if any serious punters disagree, I'd love to understand your rationale. Anyone?
We need to wait for other Scotland only polls to see if this is a trend.
Looks like thanks to the Scots, we're going to experience partition in this country.
Labour have a disastrous record when it comes to partitioning countries.
Vote Tory to spare us a re-run of 1947
Exactly. They said that yesterday. They are not abolishing it at all, because that would cost money (Ed Balls was right)
But since I'm on at 8/1 I'll leave the evens for anyone else who wants it /smugmode
PS "Clegg only" @ 25/1 in their "which of Farage/Clegg/Salmond will be MPs" might appeal.
Inarticulate and not good at defending policy.
But great quote from Lacas on Vince making babyeating seem reasonable and right!
In fact the back stabbing has all come from Davis, which is why he has shown himself to be unfit. So your analogy is quite fair - just from the wrong end of the telescope. And so too does Davis' backstabbing show up the veracity of Fallon's point. He was just hamfisted making it - although to be fair to him his remark was err, unremarkable in the context of bis overall attack on Miliband.