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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture f
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB
YouGov/Sun poll has CON back in lead
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
So only GB poll to have LAB position down.
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Could the site masthead be edited to say this for the duration of the campaign?
And first again!
SNP 49 +3
Lab 25 -4
Con 18 +2
LD 4 +1
Wait 'til next week. Neither blue not red can claim too much today.
The unproven, no track record, how much integrity does our sample have(?), internet pollsters have Labour ahead.
A 'mixed' day indeed.
Also for being an ILF (no children). But what is it about the shoulders on all her debating outfits? Very Star Trek, not in a good way.
I feel okay.
I was thinking of closing g my Glasgow NE position but never got round to it. I think i will let it ride a little longer. Maybe to May 7th.
One needs to have fun when one can ;-)
I'm not sure I'd say the same about Dave today
https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288
FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.
p.s. By 'win', I don't mean an outright majority. I mean enough for Miliband to become PM.
SNP more popular than Labour, Tory and Lib Dems COMBINED. Astonishing figures.
Aidan Kerr @Aidan_Kerr1 13 mins13 minutes ago
What's even more worrying for Scottish Labour is their core vote is now the elderly. A huge generational shift towards the SNP. #GE2015
The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
Easy to see why crybaby Miliband gets so weepy over his backstabbing past, whilst at the same time happy to get personal when it suits him and his party with 'bully bullingdon boy' Cameron.
As I have said for months, SNP likely to break 50%. And I am hardly an SNP cheerleader.....
Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.
And the Tories haven't even unveiled their Manifesto yet.
I actually feel a little sorry for the Tories - it's unlikely that any of their potential coalition partners will have enough seats to together add up to a workable majority, and the ones who might - the LDs, if they were very lucky or the Tories v. close to winning outright - might not be inclined to enter another coalition in any case.
Calling today a draw seems quite ridiculous
So today would be
Lab +1 -1 +2 +4 +1 so they score 7 (+1.4)
Con -2 +1 -1 -2 -3 so that's -7 (-1.4)
Ukip 0 -1 -3 -1 +3 so -2 (-0.4)
Lib Dem +3 0 0 +1 0 so +4 (+0.8)
Probably all a waste of space today & we'll be looking back and laughing at ourselves.
I'm hardly a Cassandra. There is absolutely no evidence from anywhere that Cameron has a hope in hell of retaining power other than some vague hypothetical assumption that the Tories will do considerably better than the polls say. They probably will but the idea they'll even get to 7 points clear of Labour to repeat 2010 is laughable.
The Ten was a car crash for the Tories. Sure Landale mentioned the two polls showing Tory leads butthe direction is all to Labour and EdM is having a great campaign so far. Fallon's dickish comments today were manna from heaven.
Black Thursday. I'm sure Dave had an amiable time meeting and dining with activists though....
Probably a complete waste of time since SNP will win both but it does show that people are trying to get voters to join up to beat the nationalists.
They are, by far, the most effective and successful political party in Western Europe.
DavidL will be touring Dundee West with his reversible rosette on this week.
Some pollsters aren't worth taking notice of. Their samples are impure and too open to orchestrated manipulation or situational bias.
Could the English please start making up their minds?
Throwing figures like £70 billion for the deficit means nothing to most people - it's an absurd number. "2.5% growth" - meaningless. I know from my personal economic circumstance's I have at best stood still since 2010 - my pay hasn't risen much but most of the necessities haven't risen much either but it's been five years of stagnation.
Yes, the Coalition had to do what it has done but Labour under Brown is a lifetime ago - it seems that Cameron has been Prime Minister forever and those who don't take well to him want rid.
Or possibly Luxembourg's CSV.
See, I'm not nasty, I didn;'t say "SLAB filled".
Face it there is no bigger enemy of political betting.com than Alistair Carmichael.
You don't even have to watch the video - just look at the first frame and the expression on SamCam's face as she listens to her husband wittering on about Valerian steel...
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3032693/Lib-Dems-level-UKIP-time-2013-New-poll-shows-parties-equal-12-cent-Conservatives-lead-36-cent.html
'Cheer up Tories. At least you haven't peaked too soon in the campaign'
At least we haven't prematurely creamed our jeans.
The Greeks will talk and talk but bow down on the day. It's all just politics.
On the violence and death threats, there was plenty of evidence at the time, as I pointed out at the time. Like *** actual court cases ***.
Tories Most Seats, Labour Most votes is a REAL possibility
Cover this now if you have a red there tbh
Take a bow Mr. Herdson.
Blooming heck!
However, unemployment isn't. Nor is the mortgage rate. Nor the tax free allowance.
The last one was actually the most popular proposal at the last budget - so somewhere along the line, the principle of "I can earn, and the government won't take it" has stuck in the minds of the electorate.
I expect a Tory premium of 2.5% on whatever the polling gap is on 7 May.
Pulpstar - Yes Carmichael is the enemy of PBers
Fixing fares is fine. It just reduces the value of the concession.
Of course the pendulum swings, but I just can't see where the quality folk are going to come from in SLab to take advantage of said swing. Murphy and Alexander are supposed to be their brightest and best, and they just ain't hacking it.