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System Posts: 12,578
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final polls of the day make it rather a mixed picture for LAB

YouGov/Sun poll has CON back in lead
CON 35 (+1)
LAB 34 (-1)
LD 8 (=)
UKIP 12 (-1)
GRN 4 (-1)
So only GB poll to have LAB position down.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited April 2015
    KEEP CALM and do not pay undue attention to any one poll.

    Could the site masthead be edited to say this for the duration of the campaign?

    And first again!
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Second, like Labour :)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/586276275515424768
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesTimes/status/586272441925632000

    Time to hide Murphy and push Ed in Scotland?
  • Itwasrigged
    Itwasrigged Posts: 154
    Is this a Hell Yeah or Who Cares day? :)
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Hmmmmmmm.....
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Great timing by me to close out my SNP SPIN position last Friday
  • JPJ2
    JPJ2 Posts: 380
    Surely Salmond can't win Gordon against this background :-)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @toadmeister: Wonder if the Guardian will have time to include the YouGov Scotland poll in later editions?
    SNP 49 +3
    Lab 25 -4
    Con 18 +2
    LD 4 +1
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    I stand by all my previous critiques of the tory approach but also the earlier remarks that this is easter.

    Wait 'til next week. Neither blue not red can claim too much today.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    The longstanding, proven, high pedigree pollsters have Tory leads, and Labour getting de-kilted in scotland.

    The unproven, no track record, how much integrity does our sample have(?), internet pollsters have Labour ahead.

    A 'mixed' day indeed.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iankatz1000: As new YouGov poll shows SNP surging in Scotland, @bbclaurak reports tonight from seat Labour never imagined it could lose #newsnight
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/586277417284718592
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Yay Sturgeon! For winning even when she obviously didn't.

    Also for being an ILF (no children). But what is it about the shoulders on all her debating outfits? Very Star Trek, not in a good way.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    I have 5 of your earth pounds on SNP to take Shetland and Orkney.

    I feel okay.

    I was thinking of closing g my Glasgow NE position but never got round to it. I think i will let it ride a little longer. Maybe to May 7th.
  • nu123
    nu123 Posts: 25
    Remember Tories ahead by one point still means Ed is PM. A sobering thought..
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    @Freggles

    One needs to have fun when one can ;-)
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    Reasonably good polls for Labour. The force seems to be with them but more significantly Ed has turned from Clark Kent into Superman. He finally looks and sounds like a Prime Minister.

    I'm not sure I'd say the same about Dave today
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Is Sterling on the rebound?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @bbclaurak: And v interesting details emerging about campaign for tactical voting building in Scotland ...claims 600 activists working round the country
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/586277417284718592

    A new ITV News POLL or just prediction?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Could shy Tories be a problem in Scotland? Perhaps we're already ahead of Labour? :D
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    BLACK SWAN ALERT

    https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    On topic, I don't accept that this was an Easter effect. Much more likely it was a delayed Debate Effect. The shift is real but I doubt it's deep: a better than expected performance by Ed (or two, if we count Paxman) will not be enough to see him over the line in May. However, he has another two debates to go and if he's not quite looking human, nor is he looking android.

    FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

    p.s. By 'win', I don't mean an outright majority. I mean enough for Miliband to become PM.
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Didn`t YOUGUV bizarrely have Nicola Sturgeon winning the 1st debate completely out of kilter with other polls?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: And v interesting details emerging about campaign for tactical voting building in Scotland ...claims 600 activists working round the country

    Tactical voting campaign has collapsed twice now, third time a charm?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Danny565 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/586277417284718592

    A new ITV News POLL or just prediction?
    Tom from ComRes has put the ComRes figures into his seat projector.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BLACK SWAN ALERT

    https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288

    That's not a black Swan. A black Swan is something people don't (or can't) predict. Grexit has been on the cards for at least five months.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 15 mins15 minutes ago
    SNP more popular than Labour, Tory and Lib Dems COMBINED. Astonishing figures.

    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 13 mins13 minutes ago
    What's even more worrying for Scottish Labour is their core vote is now the elderly. A huge generational shift towards the SNP. #GE2015
  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Lets see how tomorrow goes. Must say that a ComRes poll showing the same swing towards Labour as the other polls from earlier in the day being hailed by Blues as "we're saved" shows how desperate things have become
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Artist said:

    A SNP landslide would almost certainly mean a second election within a year. If you're operating a minority government, a vote by vote deal only works when you have more than one choice of party to work with.

    You seriously think Sturgeon and Salmond would risk letting the Tories back in before the Holyrood elections?

    The SNP may well vote down all sorts of measures a Miliband minority government might put forward but the Queens' Speech and Budget will go through, as will votes of confidence.
  • Flightpath
    Flightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    @toadmeister: Wonder if the Guardian will have time to include the YouGov Scotland poll in later editions?
    SNP 49 +3
    Lab 25 -4
    Con 18 +2
    LD 4 +1

    So following the Guardian headline puffing up labour we have 2 polls putting the tories in the lead and another giving a wipe out in Scotland, plus the Scottish tory leader beating the specially imported SLAB leader.
    Easy to see why crybaby Miliband gets so weepy over his backstabbing past, whilst at the same time happy to get personal when it suits him and his party with 'bully bullingdon boy' Cameron.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    SMukesh said:

    Didn`t YOUGUV bizarrely have Nicola Sturgeon winning the 1st debate completely out of kilter with other polls?

    No, sturgeon did well in all polls.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    Labour extinction event in Scotland.

    As I have said for months, SNP likely to break 50%. And I am hardly an SNP cheerleader.....

    Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.

    And the Tories haven't even unveiled their Manifesto yet.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    nu123 said:

    Remember Tories ahead by one point still means Ed is PM. .

    Quite. Far from being overexcited by one poll, or a few polls, I think most people reacting to them would be because they were yet more polls clearly not showing significant Tory leads, and that is what is needed to shift the result, which combined with only a few weeks being left means those few polls not showing that Tory favouring result is more of a reason to panic than a few weeks ago, even if the overall picture has not changed.

    I actually feel a little sorry for the Tories - it's unlikely that any of their potential coalition partners will have enough seats to together add up to a workable majority, and the ones who might - the LDs, if they were very lucky or the Tories v. close to winning outright - might not be inclined to enter another coalition in any case.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BLACK SWAN ALERT

    https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288

    That's not a black Swan. A black Swan is something people don't (or can't) predict. Grexit has been on the cards for at least five months.
    Well it means I can update my weekend thread, with the headline "ACROPOLIS NOW!"
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Lets see how tomorrow goes. Must say that a ComRes poll showing the same swing towards Labour as the other polls from earlier in the day being hailed by Blues as "we're saved" shows how desperate things have become

    Slippage for Labour with YouGov, though.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tories set to cap rail fare rises at inflation rate
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Danny565 Murphy is being dragged down by Ed, if/when Labour loses the election he will be able to rebuild the remains of Scottish Labour on his own terms for Holyrood 2016, with probably a more popular UK Labour leader. On newsnight last week indeed, one Scottish voter said Miliband looked defeated while Murphy had more passion
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited April 2015
    Surely a better way of reading several polls in one day is to take the net improvement figure for each party and then look at that over a week?

    Calling today a draw seems quite ridiculous

    So today would be

    Lab +1 -1 +2 +4 +1 so they score 7 (+1.4)
    Con -2 +1 -1 -2 -3 so that's -7 (-1.4)
    Ukip 0 -1 -3 -1 +3 so -2 (-0.4)
    Lib Dem +3 0 0 +1 0 so +4 (+0.8)



  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Lets just wait and see Monday onwards when most people are back. Some private schools still don't return until 20th but it'll mostly be back to norms next week.

    Probably all a waste of space today & we'll be looking back and laughing at ourselves.
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Repost FPT:

    I'm hardly a Cassandra. There is absolutely no evidence from anywhere that Cameron has a hope in hell of retaining power other than some vague hypothetical assumption that the Tories will do considerably better than the polls say. They probably will but the idea they'll even get to 7 points clear of Labour to repeat 2010 is laughable. 

    The Ten was a car crash for the Tories. Sure Landale mentioned the two polls showing Tory leads butthe direction is all to Labour and EdM is having a great campaign so far. Fallon's dickish comments today were manna from heaven. 

    Black Thursday. I'm sure Dave had an amiable time meeting and dining with activists though....
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: And v interesting details emerging about campaign for tactical voting building in Scotland ...claims 600 activists working round the country

    I have seen leaflets left around town asking people to vote for the pro-union parties in the 2 neighbouring seats ie Conservative in Perth and North Perthshire and Labour in Ochil and South Perthshire.
    Probably a complete waste of time since SNP will win both but it does show that people are trying to get voters to join up to beat the nationalists.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Great timing by me to close out my SNP SPIN position last Friday

    Ya great feartie turnip....
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
    (compared to last week)
    SNP 49 +3
    Lab 25 -4
    Con 18 +2
    LD 4 +1

    I'm going to make ...
    Hope you had the tissues handy...
    I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !
    The reason the SNP are so good, is that everyone underestimates the SNP.

    They are, by far, the most effective and successful political party in Western Europe.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    MarqueeMark said:

    Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.

    @MattChorley: Farage's People's Army could be about to be overtaken by the Lib Dems. THE LIB DEMS. http://t.co/oC2Wofohn5 http://t.co/4ohaUPYb0e
  • Eh_ehm_a_eh
    Eh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: And v interesting details emerging about campaign for tactical voting building in Scotland ...claims 600 activists working round the country

    Laura behind the times, that's been on the go for weeks.
    DavidL will be touring Dundee West with his reversible rosette on this week.

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    chestnut said:

    Tories set to cap rail fare rises at inflation rate

    Sickening interference tin the free market. Dunder headed lack of understanding of economics, etc...
  • JohnO
    JohnO Posts: 4,312
    Bob__Sykes said:

    Repost FPT:

    I'm hardly a Cassandra. There is absolutely no evidence from anywhere that Cameron has a hope in hell of retaining power other than some vague hypothetical assumption that the Tories will do considerably better than the polls say. They probably will but the idea they'll even get to 7 points clear of Labour to repeat 2010 is laughable. 

    The Ten was a car crash for the Tories. Sure Landale mentioned the two polls showing Tory leads butthe direction is all to Labour and EdM is having a great campaign so far. Fallon's dickish comments today were manna from heaven. 

    Black Thursday. I'm sure Dave had an amiable time meeting and dining with activists though....

    Well, either you or Southam Observer is going to be a total and utter dick on May 8th.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 15 mins15 minutes ago
    SNP more popular than Labour, Tory and Lib Dems COMBINED. Astonishing figures.

    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 13 mins13 minutes ago
    What's even more worrying for Scottish Labour is their core vote is now the elderly. A huge generational shift towards the SNP. #GE2015

    Pride goeth before a fall. If the SNP really want to skewer Scottish Labour, then they need a resurgent Scottish Lib Dems to fill the centre-left unionist vote and a resurgent Scottish Tories to bank the centre-right. Without that, Labour will at some time recover just on the swing of the pendulum.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited April 2015
    david_herdson said:

    On topic, I don't accept that this was an Easter effect. Much more likely it was a delayed Debate Effect. The shift is real but I doubt it's deep: a better than expected performance by Ed (or two, if we count Paxman) will not be enough to see him over the line in May. However, he has another two debates to go and if he's not quite looking human, nor is he looking android.

    FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

    p.s. By 'win', I don't mean an outright majority. I mean enough for Miliband to become PM.

    Dead right. Sadly. But still right. There aren't enough "rich" to pay ( be milked ) for reducing the deficit and for decent public services. There will be a hangover. The Scots will behave well till after 2016 the Holyrood elections then they'll turn the heat up.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    HYUFD said:

    Danny565 Murphy is being dragged down by Ed, if/when Labour loses the election he will be able to rebuild the remains of Scottish Labour on his own terms for Holyrood 2016, with probably a more popular UK Labour leader. On newsnight last week indeed, one Scottish voter said Miliband looked defeated while Murphy had more passion

    Murphy looks like a raving lunatic.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited April 2015
    isam said:

    Surely a better way of reading several polls in one day is to take the net improvement figure for each party and then look at that over a week?

    Calling today a draw seems quite ridiculous

    So today would be

    Lab +1 -1 +2 +4 +1 so they score 7 (+1.4)
    Con -2 +1 -1 -2 -3 so that's -7 (-1.4)
    Ukip 0 -1 -3 -1 +3 so -2 (-0.4)
    Lib Dem +3 0 0 +1 0 so +4 (+0.8)

    Why allocate equal weighting to models that haven't been equal in accuracy before?

    Some pollsters aren't worth taking notice of. Their samples are impure and too open to orchestrated manipulation or situational bias.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    john_zims said:

    @Scott_P

    '@SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead'

    Can't be right surely?

    Roger told us that Murphy easily won and to expect a Labour surge in Scotland..

    Rogerdamus seems to be keeping his solid record on predictions.
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    rcs1000 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BLACK SWAN ALERT

    https://twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288

    That's not a black Swan. A black Swan is something people don't (or can't) predict. Grexit has been on the cards for at least five months.
    Grexit has been on the cards for five years. It actually happening would be a black swan (well, a grey one anyway). However, I don't expect it this time either. Both sides are clearly upping the stakes though.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    I daren't bet on Murphy's seat tbh - don't want to jinx it ^________________^
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    chestnut said:

    isam said:

    Surely a better way of reading several polls in one day is to take the net improvement figure for each party and then look at that over a week?

    Calling today a draw seems quite ridiculous

    So today would be

    Lab +1 -1 +2 +4 +1 so they score 7 (+1.4)
    Con -2 +1 -1 -2 -3 so that's -7 (-1.4)
    Ukip 0 -1 -3 -1 +3 so -2 (-0.4)
    Lib Dem +3 0 0 +1 0 so +4 (+0.8)

    Why allocate equal weighting to models that haven't been equal in accuracy before?

    Some pollsters aren't worth taking notice of. Their samples are impure and too open to orchestrated manipulation or situational bias.
    Also wouldn't this exaggerate outliers? Perhaps using a clipped mean?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Any hints as to what it might be? Sam Cam date night?
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I like the Scottish poll for my betting position. Closing out is for fearties.

    Could the English please start making up their minds?
  • stodge
    stodge Posts: 14,908
    david_herdson said:


    FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

    p.s. By 'win', I don't mean an outright majority. I mean enough for Miliband to become PM.

    At least Mr Herdson offers a more rational analysis than some of his activist colleagues. It may simply be that after years of austerity, being told the economy is recovering and doing well by Osborne has led people to suppose the days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly-rising asset values are back.

    Throwing figures like £70 billion for the deficit means nothing to most people - it's an absurd number. "2.5% growth" - meaningless. I know from my personal economic circumstance's I have at best stood still since 2010 - my pay hasn't risen much but most of the necessities haven't risen much either but it's been five years of stagnation.

    Yes, the Coalition had to do what it has done but Labour under Brown is a lifetime ago - it seems that Cameron has been Prime Minister forever and those who don't take well to him want rid.

  • old_labour
    old_labour Posts: 3,238
    Ed Miliband pledges to freeze rail fares for 5 years in real terms.
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Cheer up Tories. At least you haven't peaked too soon in the campaign
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited April 2015
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Any hints as to what it might be? Sam Cam date night?
    It is about [MODERATED] and [REDACTED] doing [BLIMEY YOU WON'T BELIEVE IT I HAD TO LOOK IT UP ON URBAN DICTIONARY]
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SamCoatesTimes: Exclusive: Awful news for Labour in Scotland as SNP take biggest YouGov lead
    (compared to last week)
    SNP 49 +3
    Lab 25 -4
    Con 18 +2
    LD 4 +1

    I'm going to make ...
    Hope you had the tissues handy...
    I can't believe I laid off Coatbridge last weekend !
    The reason the SNP are so good, is that everyone underestimates the SNP.

    They are, by far, the most effective and successful political party in Western Europe.
    CDU.

    Or possibly Luxembourg's CSV.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MarqueeMark said:

    Labour extinction event in Scotland.

    As I have said for months, SNP likely to break 50%. And I am hardly an SNP cheerleader.....

    Kippers going to face a hard choice in the next four weeks. Stay with Farage's vanity project - and have Ed as PM. Or take the In/Out referendum on offer from the Tories.

    And the Tories haven't even unveiled their Manifesto yet.

    TBH all this is relatively early skirmishing and Labour have fired off most of the shots. The last two weeks will almost certainly be the clash of the big 2 - Labour NHS Vs Tory Economy.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    antifrank said:

    I like the Scottish poll for my betting position. Closing out is for fearties.

    Could the English please start making up their minds?

    Well Labour can't be doing too badly at all iN England and Wales if its gone from 43 to 25% in Scotland.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @AGilinsky: Two Lab-Tory marginals in Scotland where rising SNP might let the Conservatives win: Dumfries and Galloway & Renfrewshire East.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Any hints as to what it might be? Sam Cam date night?
    It is about [MODERATED] and [REDACTED] spit roasting [BLIMEY YOU WON'T BELIEVE IT]
    Bloody Nora!
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Scott_P said:

    @iankatz1000: As new YouGov poll shows SNP surging in Scotland, @bbclaurak reports tonight from seat Labour never imagined it could lose #newsnight

    Laura Keunssberg must be sick to her SLAB stomach.

    See, I'm not nasty, I didn;'t say "SLAB filled".
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Any hints as to what it might be? Sam Cam date night?
    It is about [MODERATED] and [REDACTED] spit roasting [BLIMEY YOU WON'T BELIEVE IT]
    When SPIN comes back up it's going to be a "This is what you could have won"

    Face it there is no bigger enemy of political betting.com than Alistair Carmichael.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    This link is great - not for the article, but close to the end there is a video about Cameron visiting the Game of Thrones set.

    You don't even have to watch the video - just look at the first frame and the expression on SamCam's face as she listens to her husband wittering on about Valerian steel...

    :lol:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3032693/Lib-Dems-level-UKIP-time-2013-New-poll-shows-parties-equal-12-cent-Conservatives-lead-36-cent.html
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Freggies

    'Cheer up Tories. At least you haven't peaked too soon in the campaign'

    At least we haven't prematurely creamed our jeans.
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    I daren't bet on Murphy's seat tbh - don't want to jinx it ^________________^

    I think I have a tenner on renfrewshire east.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    The polls are all over the place.. Stick to ICM as the closest you can get to received wisdom..

  • RochdalePioneers
    RochdalePioneers Posts: 30,611
    Tories: intervention into electricity market bad. Fixing prices is a disgraceful attempt to manipulate prices. Don;t vote for Ed he is anti markets and that is anti business. Intervention into railway market good. Fixing prices is good for hard working families. Vote for Dave because fixing prices is pro markets and good for business
  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Purseybear said:

    Lets just wait and see Monday onwards when most people are back. Some private schools still don't return until 20th but it'll mostly be back to norms next week.

    Probably all a waste of space today & we'll be looking back and laughing at ourselves.

    The schools don't go back to the 20th in Hampshire
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    BLACK SWAN ALERT

    https:// twitter.com/DJack_Journo/status/586277961252364288

    They made their IMF payment today.

    The Greeks will talk and talk but bow down on the day. It's all just politics.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    fitalass said:

    One question for you, who actually went off and hunted for this wee lassie on twitter until they found her? And please stop trying to peddle the myth of death threats and physical attacks against pro-indy supporters every time the bad behaviour from cybernats is exposed as if it can somehow mitigate their bad behaviour now! As I pointed earlier in the thread, didn't we see enough of this behaviour during the Indy Ref? I wouldn't touch that Wings site with a barge pole.

    Carnyx said:

    fitalass said:

    I wouldn't bother with the usual wings spin on this, I was actually around on twitter last night and saw this whole sorry but totally predictable nasty witch hunt unfold in real time. Didn't we see enough of this during the Independence Referendum?!

    Carnyx said:

    Stereotomy said:

    I haven't been around today. Have the nats here apologised for perpetuating the lies and bullying about that girl who asked the question in the scottish debate?

    Have a look at Wings over Scotland for a rather different story.



    That's right, it was and is an offence to question the Unionist Weltanschauung. Remember all the death threats against pro-indy supporters, and the physical attacks?

    What is so interesting about thw article by Wings - who always gives his, often Unonist, sources - is that you can see precisely such an anti=indy witchhunt, of the kind you rightly decry, develop in real time. How he got blamed personally for attacking a woman who was outed bu the LDs in the first place.


    FPT - apparently the LDs but I have not looked into it in detail: the point is that the Wings site is actually showing the concoction of spin myths by the Unionists. (If I can read the DT and PB postings by you, you can just as well read Wings.)

    On the violence and death threats, there was plenty of evidence at the time, as I pointed out at the time. Like *** actual court cases ***.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Btw:


    Tories Most Seats, Labour Most votes is a REAL possibility

    Cover this now if you have a red there tbh
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,459
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Surely Ed can't have FOUR kitchens?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Allegra Stratton on Newsnight says The Big Society is making a comeback. 3 days off work for volunteering
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ftwestminster: Cameron harks back to Big Society http://t.co/zh4A4oOOoM
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Pulpstar said:

    Btw:


    Tories Most Seats, Labour Most votes is a REAL possibility

    Cover this now if you have a red there tbh

    I think someone might have tipped that at 50/1 a while back....

    Take a bow Mr. Herdson.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I daren't bet on Murphy's seat tbh - don't want to jinx it ^________________^

    I think I have a tenner on renfrewshire east.
    I was considering backing Labour in Glasgow NE today when I heard of this "newsworthy" poll.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    stodge said:

    david_herdson said:


    FWIW, I think Labour's going to win. The country doesn't have an adequate appreciation of how much shit we're all in and are going to vote for sparkly trinkets and the nice fuzzy feeling of having other people pay for the state to take care of all the responsibilities in their lives. It's mindless, ignorant, selfish and childish but that doesn't mean it's not going to happen.

    p.s. By 'win', I don't mean an outright majority. I mean enough for Miliband to become PM.

    At least Mr Herdson offers a more rational analysis than some of his activist colleagues. It may simply be that after years of austerity, being told the economy is recovering and doing well by Osborne has led people to suppose the days of cheap food, cheap fuel, cheap money and endlessly-rising asset values are back.

    Throwing figures like £70 billion for the deficit means nothing to most people - it's an absurd number. "2.5% growth" - meaningless. I know from my personal economic circumstance's I have at best stood still since 2010 - my pay hasn't risen much but most of the necessities haven't risen much either but it's been five years of stagnation.

    Yes, the Coalition had to do what it has done but Labour under Brown is a lifetime ago - it seems that Cameron has been Prime Minister forever and those who don't take well to him want rid.

    You are correct that growth and debt to gdp figures etc are meaningless to the average punter.

    However, unemployment isn't. Nor is the mortgage rate. Nor the tax free allowance.

    The last one was actually the most popular proposal at the last budget - so somewhere along the line, the principle of "I can earn, and the government won't take it" has stuck in the minds of the electorate.

    I expect a Tory premium of 2.5% on whatever the polling gap is on 7 May.
  • Hertsmere_Pubgoer
    Hertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/586280335941439488

    Any hints as to what it might be? Sam Cam date night?
    It is about [MODERATED] and [REDACTED] doing [BLIMEY YOU WON'T BELIEVE IT I HAD TO LOOK IT UP ON URBAN DICTIONARY]
    If you had to look it up on Urban Dictionary.
    Blooming heck!

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    antifrank said:

    I like the Scottish poll for my betting position. Closing out is for fearties.

    Could the English please start making up their minds?

    I only closed out, because you mentioned earlier on that night.

    Pulpstar - Yes Carmichael is the enemy of PBers
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SMukesh said:

    Didn`t YOUGUV bizarrely have Nicola Sturgeon winning the 1st debate completely out of kilter with other polls?

    Yougov were the only pollster to ask the question "IGNORING PARTY PREFERENCES". That's why it is the most reliable debate poll. Even accepting party preference, Sturgeon did incredibly well. Three to Five times her voter base. All others got less than their voter base except Farage who was about 20% up.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586282639394525184
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    john_zims said:

    @Freggies

    'Cheer up Tories. At least you haven't peaked too soon in the campaign'

    At least we haven't prematurely creamed our jeans.

    If you will read the last thread it's the right wingers on here who got a bit emotional not LAB
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    How many seats will Labour get in Scotland? Under five now looks as likely as not. Calum is tipster of the year.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Tories: intervention into electricity market bad. Fixing prices is a disgraceful attempt to manipulate prices. Don;t vote for Ed he is anti markets and that is anti business. Intervention into railway market good. Fixing prices is good for hard working families. Vote for Dave because fixing prices is pro markets and good for business

    One is a freeish market (if flawed). The other are a series of licenses to operate granted by the government where fares are part of the contract negotiation.

    Fixing fares is fine. It just reduces the value of the concession.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    DON'T FORGET - YOUGOV IS NOW 7 DAYS A WEEK, WE GET ONE TOMORROW NIGHT AS WELL
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Alistair said:

    Scott_P said:

    @bbclaurak: And v interesting details emerging about campaign for tactical voting building in Scotland ...claims 600 activists working round the country

    Tactical voting campaign has collapsed twice now, third time a charm?
    BBC Scotland and SLABbers like Laura Keunssberg (I know she's now BBC London) will keep trying.
  • Theuniondivvie
    Theuniondivvie Posts: 44,327
    edited April 2015
    david_herdson said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 15 mins15 minutes ago
    SNP more popular than Labour, Tory and Lib Dems COMBINED. Astonishing figures.

    Aidan Kerr ‏@Aidan_Kerr1 13 mins13 minutes ago
    What's even more worrying for Scottish Labour is their core vote is now the elderly. A huge generational shift towards the SNP. #GE2015

    Pride goeth before a fall. If the SNP really want to skewer Scottish Labour, then they need a resurgent Scottish Lib Dems to fill the centre-left unionist vote and a resurgent Scottish Tories to bank the centre-right. Without that, Labour will at some time recover just on the swing of the pendulum.
    Aidan Kerr is a young hack who 'defected' from the SNP which gives his tweets some extra currency.
    Of course the pendulum swings, but I just can't see where the quality folk are going to come from in SLab to take advantage of said swing. Murphy and Alexander are supposed to be their brightest and best, and they just ain't hacking it.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Alistair In your opinion, he took over Scottish Labour at its nadir, he will not be able to fully rebuild until after the election
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586282639394525184

    That change wasn't today though, was it?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/586282639394525184

    That change wasn't today though, was it?
    This week
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