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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?
VINCE CABLE, the business secretary, is being tipped by senior Liberal Democrats as the party’s next leader if Nick Clegg loses his seat or resigns after a poor result in the general election.
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For this to happen you'd need a simultaneous set of: Clegg loses his seat AND Cable keeps his AND the party chooses Cable. I'd want more than 8/1 on that.
Surely the odds of Clegg losing his seat while Cable keeps his must be quite slim to start with, even before thinking would the party choose to have him as leader?
I guess the interesting angle is if Clegg loses his seat while Cable wins his, and the LibDems need a quick coronation so the country can have a government. At that point his age becomes beneficial, because young cardinals vote for old popes.
If they want to go onto the back benches and lick their wounds I would have thought there were people better placed to gee up the moral of the party and set the ground work for rebuilding their activist base. Someone with charisma maybe.
When I worked at IBM they had an acronym IPR (In Plant Retiree) which was used to denote an employee that has stopped working but still appears to be on the payroll, Vince might work hard behind the scenes, but its not the impression he gives voters.
There have been a number of incorrect reports of the methodology used for this poll which this statement aims to clarify.
UKIP were reported to have said that the poll's headline figures understated support for Nigel Farage 'because it included people who were not likely to vote and who tended to lean towards the traditional parties'. The tables prove that both assertions are plainly wrong.
Vince the man who correctly forecasted 12 of the last 3 recessions, was exposed by Andrew Neil and never recovered.
I take Jack to be an an expert in such matters and accordingly I've backed her with Laddies at odds of 50/1.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliding#History
BTW did you see the request earlier for the return of the Donate button?
The Lib Dem eminences grises are lining up against Tim Farron, but they have yet to line up behind anyone. They'll need to identify a preferred candidate quickly after 7 May, because Mr Farron is going to be out of the traps like a greyhound chasing the rabbit.
http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glider_infantry
Doesn't weight by past vote. 2010 vote in weighted sample is Con 242, Lab 232. But 2010 result was actually Con 48, Lab 31.
Con has higher retention rate of 2010 voters than Lab. Con 69% retention, Lab 64% retention. On top of that more 2010 LDs go Con than Lab (though only tiny number anyway).
Finally 31% of 2015 UKIP didn't vote in 2010. 13% of Con 2015 and 15% of Lab 2015 didn't vote in 2010.
If thats the best they've got then good luck to them.
I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.
If Clegg fails to hold Hallam or resigns in the aftermath of the election the parliamentary party will elect a deputy leader who would act as an interim leader while a leadership election took place. My guess is that Vince wouldn't win the support of his parliamentary colleagues and it would got to Norman Lamb. The latter would then be ideally placed as the stop Farron at all costs option.
Would be useful re whether they are more likely to lean Con or Lab (though obviously depends enormously on circumstances of the actual numbers). If genuine straight Con/ Lab choice I expect them to go Lab. But if choice of Con or Lab (but requiring SNP)?
Off the top of my head:
Leaning Con: Clegg, Laws, Lamb, Davey, Carmichael
Leaning Lab: Cable, Farron, Kennedy, Hughes, Baker
Can anyone do a list at say 25 / 30 MPs?
It's sunny, and warm, which is rather odd.
Cable as leader? Doubt it. Age by itself isn't the issue, it's looking past it (same applies to Kennedy). I doubt Lord Oakshott's venom-spewing helped the Cable cause either.
Is there a [relatively] rightwing potential leader? Or are they all veering off to the left?
Anyway, I've got Cable in the DeadPool on a couple of websites - one of which has a prize - so I need him to be otherwise engaged pretty soon.
@Andrew_ComRes: #UKIP statement quoted here http://t.co/UChIlZvivq contains factual 'inaccuracies', for correct methodology read http://t.co/598ch1z0ij
So the LD would be up 3% on their 2010 result, quite improbable.
If you think its just between Clegg and Farage then Clegg is a more strong favourite to win his seat and there is only 1 main rival in Hallam
I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
Smithson(s)son ?
Pretty much in line with the national UKIP decline.
Who else?
Even money still available
Ukip has seized on this as ‘wishful thinking and numerical trickery which only the establishment parties gain from’. A spokesman said in a statement:
‘The poll shows that amongst those likely to vote, Nigel Farage is five points ahead of both the Conservative and Labour in South Thanet. It’s only after ComRes’s questionable methodology is applied, including weighting back to 2010 vote share, and producing a question which includes a false incumbency factor by alluding to the previous MP that the numbers magically change. The figures even include people who say they aren’t voting this time.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-poll-that-could-mean-the-end-for-nigel-farage/
Hence Rhys Jones, the son of Mary Griffiths and Twn Jones would inherit from Twm's father, but if he was Rhys Griffiths-Jones he would inherit from both grandparents.
My father believed this, and practised it, but neither my sister nor II got anything from our maternal grandfather. Mind, he was English, so probably didn't accept the custom. He also died before either of us was born!
Looking at table 7
"Which party do you think would be your second choice to vote for on 7th May?"
Labour voters prefer UKIP to Con.
Con voters prefer UKIP to Lab
LD voters prefer: Con 21%, Lab 17%, UKIP 4%
http://ht.ly/Ldybq
Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
John ap Paul ap Ringo ap George
https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG
Hint of a slight uptick for Labour, could just be noise...
The thing about Farron is that the general public don't know who he is. And I think the risk is that, any "new" Lib Dem who comes along in the future, people are just going to project their general image of the party (untrustworthy and weak pushovers) onto that person and not even really give them a chance. I think to cut through, any Lib Dem is already going to have to already have established their own individual identity separate from the party.
Vince has the advantage of already being established to the public, and of still retaining some kind of trust and popularity (I think the polls usually show he's one of the more popular members of the govt of either party). In fact he's pretty much the only Lib Dem left who ticks both the established and trusted boxes, unless we're counting Charlie Kennedy, may God rest his soul.
Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
This is not the election for UKIP but their time will come as they have some strong arguments that need addressing. The coalition's foreign policy has been very weak. Hague has probably underperformed more than any other minister. UKIP have little to say on domestic policy.
On the other hand I see this as the peak for the SNP. The party existed for a single major issue which was devolution of power from Westminster. This project is yet to be completed but will be soon. The diehard nationalists are growing old and the young generation as my son points out are very fickle and not really that concerned about nationalism. Nicola's communistic style plays well with a section of the population (some in England) but ultimately does not represent the new generation of Scots and the oil price drop has killed the idea that the population can be bought off to vote for independence. Yet for one election and probably one election only Scottish Labour is to be wiped out. Cant say I will miss them.
Not done D Miliband but same principle surely...
Anyone else its UKIP -5.5
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rochester_and_Strood_by-election,_2014
Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
Well Spotted