LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
Not a single woman !!!
Sanders ain't in that list. Not if I have anything to do with it!
Mr. Elect, aye, you're not the first chap to regenerate into a new incarnation. Picked a good time to start posting again, what with this rather interesting election less than five weeks away.
Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
News from the Ukip activists that aren't going to bother helping Tim Aker in Thurrock
Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17) 05/04/2015 16:46 Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU
Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand in Doncaster.
LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
No Simon Hughes?
The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
How safe a hold do you think Stephen Williams is, and who is in 2nd there ?
Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
Stephen Williams prediction is of a 5.15% majority. Lab second. Gerald Vernon Jackson is predicted to win by 43 votes.
Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand in Doncaster.
That's an interesting idea. Can I change my name by deed poll and back again later, being David Miliband for a few weeks?
Vince Cable one of the most useless ministers in the Coalition.
It is very easy to be the BBC's fav politician and give the pros and cons of economic situation without ultimately then having to make a tough decision, but as a minster he has done the square root of f##k all, other than bitch about being in Coalition with the Tories.
There isn't a single piece of legislation or economic decision he has made that anybody will remember in a few years. Compare his non-achievements against other Lib Dems like Steve Webb or Danny Alexander.
Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
Is there anyone else called David Miliband we can persuade to stand somewhere? And does a candidate have to sign their own nomination papers? Can I nominate anyone?
Can you also find a Nicola Sturgeon and Gordon Brown ?
I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.
I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson . In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter ) Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ? And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg Smithson(s)son ?
Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
Again not exactly, but you could look at prenoms as well
I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.
You aren't the only one.
Ever have nightmares about "Lib Dem Gain Thanet South" ?
News from the Ukip activists that aren't going to bother helping Tim Aker in Thurrock
Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17) 05/04/2015 16:46 Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU
I am up to my eyeballs in South Thanet bets. Managed to get an average of around 4/1 on the Tories and 11/1 on Labour. If the odds on Farage lengthen it may be worth taking profits.
You aren't the only one.
Ever have nightmares about "Lib Dem Gain Thanet South" ?
It did cross my mind last night when I totalled all the bets up and it worked out slightly more than expected.
What are everyone's thoughts on the Lib Dem and Green vote being squeezed by Labour?
Farage commented on not being able to lead the party from the Westminster Arms implying the leader would need a seat in the HoC. Out of all the possible UKIP seats Carswell looks like the only realistic choice for leader. This is presuming they get enough MPs. Could make an interesting bet straight after the results of the GE are announced and Farage doesn't win.
Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).
Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.
Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).
Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.
Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.
Unfortunately there is no constituency poll for Ashfield, Labour won it with a very low 34% and a majority of 192 from the LD, with the LD out of contention but Labour not very high it's a straight LAB-UKIP fight, but LAB should win easily with UKIP being down in the polls.
Unfortunately? It's only the lack of a constituency poll keeping these odds from 1/20. Thank the Lord for imperfect information keeping this market from the correct price.
LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
No Simon Hughes?
The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
How safe a hold do you think Stephen Williams is, and who is in 2nd there ?
Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
Stephen Williams prediction is of a 5.15% majority. Lab second. Gerald Vernon Jackson is predicted to win by 43 votes.
Hmm The only Scottish seat I'm on the wrong side of your prediction in is Inverclyde. The pandas saver and Glasgow 4-3/3-4 bets kick in if you are right
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).
Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.
Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)
The Tribes did have princely aspirations, hence the usage!
If the expected bloodbath takes place then Farron is a cert. Having distanced himself from the government would put him in the position to say "I told you so". If the LDs do unexpectedly well (?40+) seats then that would not be so effective.
I am no Farron fan, but he would be effective in rebuilding the party.
If the expected bloodbath takes place then Farron is a cert. Having distanced himself from the government would put him in the position to say "I told you so". If the LDs do unexpectedly well (?40+) seats then that would not be so effective.
I am no Farron fan, but he would be effective in rebuilding the party.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.
Mr. X, I agree with you, although the York names do seem to have changed drastically from start to end, whereas Llyn Din[sp] to London via Londinium is not much change at all.
Best of luck working out a 'correct' tactical vote in BRS, Edi West, D&G or WAK.
This is actually a pro-tory article! It doesn't really matter to the Telegraph whether Labour or the SNP win a seat as they will collude. What would matter is if a Lib Dem or a Conservative win a seat due to tactical voting.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson . In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter ) Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ? And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg Smithson(s)son ?
Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
Nah. Wilkin is a diminutive, Wilkinson means "Bill's son". Although I guess that sometimes a diminutive was used to differentiate a son from a similarly named father.
You sometimes find matronymics, Mallinson is Mary's son.
Icelanders still use patronymics and you should refer to them by first name, even if speaking about, for example, the President. Something which always escapes British journalists.
LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.
Mulholland is best priced 4-9.
The one I would query is John Hemming in Birmingham Yardley where it is even money both LD and Lab..
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
The successive names of York are all derived from the Latin which is presumably close to the the original Celtic, plus the element "wic" which means town . Itself from Latin "vicus" meaning "settlement near the camp". The Old English eofor means boar but seems to have been applied to York as a sort of false etymology. Similarly London has had a few names including Lundenwic and Londinium, but again all derived from the same source.
Ton is a short form of town and is the same word as German Zaun meaning fence, I think it originally meant enclosure. Ham is again cognate to German heim and English home and I think means something like farmstead.
Miss Plato, how names and so on develop can be pretty interesting. York's had at least four (Eboracum, Eoferwic, Jorvik and York), whereas London's has remained relatively unchanged.
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
I think what Istvan Steve posted on your blog is so much horseshit. If Attila's name was Germanic it is more likely to mean "Eddie" than Charlie. Kiraly is Hungarian for King because it was derived from Charles, just as many words for King or emperor are derived from Caesar (such as Tsar, Kaiser).
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Mr. Lilburne, it's certainly an unorthodox view, but I do find it interesting to learn the more 'out there' views people have (likewise the other theory I referred to, that 300 or so years of Western history never happened because Otto III made them up so he could be emperor in 1000AD).
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
Ley is still used to mean farmed pasture, as opposed to permanent pasture, so perhaps in old english a ley was farmed clearing as opposed to a natural clearing in woodland.
As in Ardsley or Stanley, farmed clearings in the Wakefield Outwood. Suspect if it's on the east of the pennines it's likely of Danish origin.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
Torpenhow = hillhillhill and also benefits from a trick pronunciation (tripenner, roughly).
Evening all and just a thought on this thread, is everyone so certain Vince Cable will still be an MP in 5 weeks time? His majority at 20% may seem huge but then so was Lembit Opik's in 2005 and he still lost on a 13% swing. Isn't Boris out to unseat him as part of his London campaign?
Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.
I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
Ley is still used to mean farmed pasture, as opposed to permanent pasture, so perhaps in old english a ley was farmed clearing as opposed to a natural clearing in woodland.
As in Ardsley or Stanley, farmed clearings in the Wakefield Outwood. Suspect if it's on the east of the pennines it's likely of Danish origin.
If your starting point is an entirely wooded country (which it is) "farm" and "clearing" come to the same thing. "Natural clearing" is a bit self-contradictory.
LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
I think Greg Mulholland will do well to hang on in Leeds North-West. Maybe the new registration rules will help him.
Mulholland is best priced 4-9.
The one I would query is John Hemming in Birmingham Yardley where it is even money both LD and Lab..
The prediction for Birminham Yardley is a LD majority of 358..
Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.
I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.
Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.
Unfortunately there is no constituency poll for Ashfield, Labour won it with a very low 34% and a majority of 192 from the LD, with the LD out of contention but Labour not very high it's a straight LAB-UKIP fight, but LAB should win easily with UKIP being down in the polls.
Unfortunately? It's only the lack of a constituency poll keeping these odds from 1/20. Thank the Lord for imperfect information keeping this market from the correct price.
(Pun intended)
As I noted yesterday, it is quite amusing how many markets are as they are based on Ashcroft polls. I noted that in several 2010-Conservative seats, like Lincoln, Amber Valley and Hove, Conservative holds look far too long-odds because of slender Labour leads taken at a time when his national polls had the Conservatives on around 27-29 per cent.
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
Not so far away is the village "Houghton on the Hill" (high town on the hill) but it is not so daft as it sounds. There is another village nearby called Hoton, and apparently until the suffix was added farm labour used to turn up at the wrong village.
Townsville in Queensland has an excellent name, but apparently named for a Mr Towns...
As a member of the LD electorate, the first question is or would be Vince's role ? Sir Malcolm Bruce is the Deputy Leader but isn't contesting the Gordon seat so if Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, I have to be honest I'm not sure what would happen in terms of leadership.
I imagine the Federal Executive and the Party President would move quickly with the Parliamentary Party to choose an acting leader before a proper contest is arranged. This might be where Vince fits in if he holds on in Twickenham.
None of this would prevent the Party forming a negotiating team (if required) and being part of the negotiations around the formation of a new Government (if required). Constitutionally, I believe any formal arrangement needs the approval of a Special Party Conference.
Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?
In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.
Mr. Lilburne, '-ley' also means farm (derived from the Viking, hence Ilkley, Morley, Batley etc).
And cognate to "leigh" Old English I think meaning forest clearing. Because spellings change it is hard to decide which is English and which Norse. Wiki gives an English derivation for Morley, Danish for Batley, and is silent on Ilkley.
I think my favourite place name in England is Breedon on the Hill in Leicestershire.
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
Not so far away is the village "Houghton on the Hill" (high town on the hill) but it is not so daft as it sounds. There is another village nearby called Hoton, and apparently until the suffix was added farm labour used to turn up at the wrong village.
Townsville in Queensland has an excellent name, but apparently named for a Mr Towns...
Even better - it's actually the City of Townsville.
Cable has been useless as a minister and useless for the LDs in promoting the coalition government - their own government.
I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.
Hanging out with Team2015 again?
Gosh no. (is that how young people speak?) These people were quite a mix. No real party affiliations. Relatively young in my context is pushing middle aged.
Mr. Charles, it was interesting to read of how princes [and some others] in England took their 'of' names from their birthplace (ie John of Gaunt).
Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.
Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)
MD old chum, the problem with that theory is that they lived 200 years apart and at opposite ends of Europe.
Territorial designations form one of the two principal basis for surnames as we know them today. Occupation is the other. My ancestor Freskyn took the name De Moravia recognising the huge tracts of Northern Scotland given to him by his cousin David I as a reward for knocking 6 bells out of the Viking supporting locals.
@DPJHodges: Now Douglas Carswell is effectively running as an independent, Ukip's entire election strategy is now based on winning 1 seat.
You have to think Hodges is being a bit cheeky, but he does have a point. 'That Tory' Carswell is hardly fitting in with the 'ugly nativists'. What was he expecting I wonder?
LDs can surely find a better not-Farron candidate than Vince.
Anyway Vince may well lose his seat in May (quite keen on that bet). Clegg too for that matter.
I think that the next LD leader is an almost unknowable thing because all of the candidates will either not be MPs or rule themselves out for one reason or another (Farron for being Farron for example).
I wonder about Dorothy Thornhill in Watford. Some signs she might create a LD gain - and that on a night of general oblivion might swing it. (I know very little about the Lady though - just watching the tealeaves)
Surely though if the LDs need a leader with a bit of nouse there's a candidate that could be swiftly ennobled and made leader closer to home! Always a good bet that fella too!
435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
He has said he will stand down if he doesn't win in Thanet South, so I don't think its a case of surviving, he'd jack it in I suppose.
The PP tweet is just another way of saying he has a 70%ish chance of winning.. it was 5/6 (54%ish) about 2 months ago and odds against last year..
I took 7/4
Bookie relentlessly tweeting for publicity/lemmngs doing their work for them by putting it on here
435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.
Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
No single seat is a reliable indicator of anything but itself.
IIRC those North East seats had swings last time which, taken at face value, would have forecast a substantial Con majority.
You need about 30 results to accurately forecast the overall outcome, and not even then, if it's going to be close, either in seat parity or near the majority threshold...
@pppolitics: South Thanet odds over recent weeks say Farage is less and less likely to win a seat. Now 2/5 to be leader at yr end http://t.co/PJptbRFUJi
Jermain Defoe to score first was 7.2 on Betfair at 3pm, 8.8 at 3.50pm and scored the first goal at 4.44pm
On another note, do you think Farage would survive failing to gain a seat (given Carswell, at the very least, will hang on)?
He has said he will stand down if he doesn't win in Thanet South, so I don't think its a case of surviving, he'd jack it in I suppose.
The PP tweet is just another way of saying he has a 70%ish chance of winning.. it was 5/6 (54%ish) about 2 months ago and odds against last year..
I took 7/4
Bookie relentlessly tweeting for publicity/lemmngs doing their work for them by putting it on here
As a member of the LD electorate, the first question is or would be Vince's role ? Sir Malcolm Bruce is the Deputy Leader but isn't contesting the Gordon seat so if Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, I have to be honest I'm not sure what would happen in terms of leadership.
I imagine the Federal Executive and the Party President would move quickly with the Parliamentary Party to choose an acting leader before a proper contest is arranged. This might be where Vince fits in if he holds on in Twickenham.
None of this would prevent the Party forming a negotiating team (if required) and being part of the negotiations around the formation of a new Government (if required). Constitutionally, I believe any formal arrangement needs the approval of a Special Party Conference.
Hmm. Formally, I'm sure you know of what you speak. But could a party without either a leader or a deputy leader credibly discuss what would no doubt be a controversial choice of governing partners? Realistically, aren't they going to say "We won't bring down whatever government forms for now, hope that's helpful, call us again in 3 months"?
As it's becoming a names thread, Palmers have a curious history. The original word was Psalmer, and it was a profession that stemmed from the irritating habit of the Church of Rome requiring rich landowners to make an annual pilgrimage there. As is always their wont, the wealthy chaps found a way round it - they won agreement that they could send someone to pray on their behaslf. A psalmer would toddle over to Rome for Baron X, intone some powerful psalms in the Baron's name, and come home for a decent wage.
I've always thought that didn't sound a bad job, really.
Thank you for the link and have bookmarked for reference. Interesting to see that 3 of the 4 Fife seats in Scotland are likely to declare fairly early at 2:00am. Fife as region voted almost exactly the same as the rest of Scotland in the Indyref. One of the seats is currently held by the Libdems with the SNP on just 14% and in 4th place last time, the other 2 seats are places where the SNP have been challenging Labour in Holyrood and local council elections but miles behind upto now for Westminster elections. The 3 of them combined should give a very good idea as to what is going to happen in the rest of Scotland
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Lab<->UKIP swing is the key issue for GE betting in my view. Unfortunately it's really quite a slippery thing to get hold of, and that's sort of why it's important anyway.
Con<->UKIP is I think reasonably stable.
I'm rather interested in the Grimsby area as a UKIP barometer. Greater Grimsby is a possible UKIP gain, although I'm not so sure. There's Cleethorpes and the Hull constituencies in the mix too.
Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?
In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.
Reminds me of Portillo's comment on BBC1 This Week a couple of weeks ago.
He said that on the Monday before the 1997 GE a national newspaper (Daily Mail?) had the headline "Heseltine and Portillo to battle for Tory leadership"
A few days later Portillo had lost his seat and Heseltine had had a heart attack.
435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Dunno, Labour 45%, UKIP 25% could be very good for Ed over the course of the evening.
Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
I'm expecting more redkippers then bluekippers when it comes down to the ballot box.
Houghton and Sunderland South (1st to declare)
LAB 50.3% CON 21.4% LIB 13.9% MIN 6.5% OTH 5.2% UKIP 2.7% Green 0.0%
Labour is expected (on UNS) to get 54.5%, Conservatives 17.6% and UKIP 14.2% (Electoralcalculus)
So if Labour get 45% and UKIP 25% then (if the Tory vote holds up) EICIS
There's a report in The Times that Mr Farage did deploy his HIV tactics to pump up his core vote. No surprises here but interesting to see it confirmed by "party sources". Apparently his was going with TB until someone pointed out that HIV cost more to treat.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4401914.ece
Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?
In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.
Reminds me of Portillo's comment on BBC1 This Week a couple of weeks ago.
He said that on the Monday before the 1997 GE a national newspaper (Daily Mail?) had the headline "Heseltine and Portillo to battle for Tory leadership"
A few days later Portillo had lost his seat and Heseltine had had a heart attack.
Portillo is a good guy. I hoped (in those days) that he would be Tory leader. In retrospect I'm not sure it would have been a good thing. I'm sure we've finished up with a better Portillo, but who knows about the country.
As another in the LD electorate, Stodge's comment is the most useful in the thread.
Cable's chances rely on the Lib Dems winning enough seats to negotiate a coalition but with Clegg losing his seat. Clegg is facing an epic swing away, so not impossible there will be 35 LDs but the leader gone. However I'd price us above 8/1 already.
You then need the parliamentary party to elect a caretaker leader, actually I think Vince could win this as he performed admirably in this role before. However the Tories don't trust him so this would only work with a Lab negotiation, getting it through the party's procedures ( federal executive, parliamentary party, special conference) he then stands down once full leader elected. Not impossible but you are looking at 40/1 ish on all the above from here.
It's shaping up to be a Monty Python fight between sensible vs silly, those who want to achieve whatever they can with compromise, against the more vocal campaigning that's much easier in opposition. One candidate is already in place, Tim Farron in the second category. Lamb vs Davey for the first - as it's AV no need for them to come to an arrangement - but Davey has no chance. Vince sits awkwardly between the two camps, and his star has waned. If it's as above, then Faron walks it.
However any woman re-elected may go for it (Swinson, Featherstone, Burt, Munt, Willott) The LDs well aware of their poor gender balance would make whoever ran a very credible candidate - but none of them are favourites to hold their seats.
There's a report in The Times that Mr Farage did deploy his HIV tactics to pump up his core vote. No surprises here but interesting to see it confirmed by "party sources" thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4401914.ece
So the only possible salvation for his soul - that it was a spur of the moment thing that just slipped out - has gone.
He's on the down escalator, come the Pearly Gates.
435 Nuneaton 01:00 will give a huge steer as to whether Ed will become PM.
Even the Sunderland Seats will have interesting data on what the LAB--> UKIP swing is going to be - most are traditional Labour (ex heavy industry) rather than Public Sector.
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Sunderland makes more cars than Italy. its heavy industry has moved on. Nissan's workforce (which supports a mass of other jobs locally) is hugely motivated to continually do better. Its about to start building the Infinity Q30. They want a stable economy, economic and political certainty. If anything its in their narrow selfish interests for us to join the Euro, let alone leave the EU. That aspect of UKIP ought not to gain any traction. Equally the Conservative Party ought to hold no fears, the tory party was in the forefront of bringing Nissan to Sunderland. The seats will of course stay Labour, but a couple of them had quite large pro tory swings last time so it will be worth looking at. But as they are pretty safe seats the size of the swing if any this time may not be a good indicator.
Sunderland Central was one of those seats where the UKIP candidate suddenly withdrew at short notice in March.
Comments
Dan Jukes (@DanJukes17)
05/04/2015 16:46
Keep finding this litter on the floor all over Grays. Doing my bit to #KeepBritainTidy pic.twitter.com/BrznvNmNWU
It is very easy to be the BBC's fav politician and give the pros and cons of economic situation without ultimately then having to make a tough decision, but as a minster he has done the square root of f##k all, other than bitch about being in Coalition with the Tories.
There isn't a single piece of legislation or economic decision he has made that anybody will remember in a few years. Compare his non-achievements against other Lib Dems like Steve Webb or Danny Alexander.
e.g. Fitz meaning "bastard son"
So Fitzgeraldson would also have the double "son"
Ever have nightmares about "Lib Dem Gain Thanet South"
If they stay in government Clegg will stay on. If they're out they'll go for someone untainted by the coalition.
Which Lib Dem activist would vote for one of the quasi Tories to get the top job?
That just leaves Farron. Put your house on him.
"If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void."
Unless you can find some independents running to change their name to David Miliband, Nicola Sturgeon and Gordon Brown shortly.
What are everyone's thoughts on the Lib Dem and Green vote being squeezed by Labour?
Farage commented on not being able to lead the party from the Westminster Arms implying the leader would need a seat in the HoC. Out of all the possible UKIP seats Carswell looks like the only realistic choice for leader. This is presuming they get enough MPs. Could make an interesting bet straight after the results of the GE are announced and Farage doesn't win.
Speaking of names, I had a comment on an old blog post I wrote comparing Attila and Charlemagne, asserting they were the same chap. Now, that's an unorthodox theory, but apparently Attila is a form of Charles (as Carolus is), which I found quite interesting.
Charlemagne - Charles the Great (Charles Magnus)
(Pun intended)
'Top 30 tactical voting seats to defeat SNP
These are the top 30 seats where tactical voting could defeat the SNP'
https://archive.today/FeQEW#selection-803.0-807.71
I might write an article about the 'strongest' comment which was Alexander's last words. When he was dying, his generals asked to whom he left his empire (he had a brother, but he had learning difficulties, and a pregnant wife [who eventually gave birth to a boy]). He was said to have replied 'to the strongest', but the Greek for 'strongest' is something like 'krateroi', so he may well have said Craterus, his most able general (who, ironically, got killed very early on in the wars of the Diadochi/Successors). Unfortunately, Craterus was away from the army, and unable to assume command. If he had still been there, he might have successfully led a unified Macedonian Empire, stretching from Albania to Afghanistan.
Link, for those interested in the Attila post/comment [just me rambling about history. Ahem]: http://thaddeusthesixth.blogspot.co.uk/2012/02/similarities-of-charlemagne-and-attila.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tribes_of_Galway
I am no Farron fan, but he would be effective in rebuilding the party.
You sometimes find matronymics, Mallinson is Mary's son.
Icelanders still use patronymics and you should refer to them by first name, even if speaking about, for example, the President. Something which always escapes British journalists.
The one I would query is John Hemming in Birmingham Yardley where it is even money both LD and Lab..
http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_2015_by_time.php
Bree- is derived from Bre- which was the pre Saxon word meaning hill
Don- is derived from the Old English word meaning hill
So Breedon on the Hill actually means "Hillhill on the Hill"
That reminds me of the town in Back To The Future > Hill Valley
As in Ardsley or Stanley, farmed clearings in the Wakefield Outwood. Suspect if it's on the east of the pennines it's likely of Danish origin.
I was talking to some relatively young people today who unprompted scoffed at Clegg in the debates as soon as he started attacking Cameron. Why? Because they had been in govt for 5 years. Words like 'cherry picking' came to the fore. The hand in pocket stance did not go down well either, which shows the perils of over preparing and affected delivery. Likewise Milibands apparent over obvious 'thank you Jason' style grated significantly.
Townsville in Queensland has an excellent name, but apparently named for a Mr Towns...
As a member of the LD electorate, the first question is or would be Vince's role ? Sir Malcolm Bruce is the Deputy Leader but isn't contesting the Gordon seat so if Nick Clegg loses in Hallam, I have to be honest I'm not sure what would happen in terms of leadership.
I imagine the Federal Executive and the Party President would move quickly with the Parliamentary Party to choose an acting leader before a proper contest is arranged. This might be where Vince fits in if he holds on in Twickenham.
None of this would prevent the Party forming a negotiating team (if required) and being part of the negotiations around the formation of a new Government (if required). Constitutionally, I believe any formal arrangement needs the approval of a Special Party Conference.
Once that is out of the way (if required), the election of a new leader can proceed. I don't think Vince would be a runner in that race - the question is how many survivors will make it into the lifeboats and who will they be ?
In the same way as many would have backed Portillo to lead a post-1997 Conservative Party, I think we need to see the runners and riders (so to speak). Farron looks to be a runner and I imagine there are a few other possibles but that's a long way off.
These people were quite a mix. No real party affiliations. Relatively young in my context is pushing middle aged.
Territorial designations form one of the two principal basis for surnames as we know them today. Occupation is the other. My ancestor Freskyn took the name De Moravia recognising the huge tracts of Northern Scotland given to him by his cousin David I as a reward for knocking 6 bells out of the Viking supporting locals.
Anyway Vince may well lose his seat in May (quite keen on that bet). Clegg too for that matter.
I think that the next LD leader is an almost unknowable thing because all of the candidates will either not be MPs or rule themselves out for one reason or another (Farron for being Farron for example).
I wonder about Dorothy Thornhill in Watford. Some signs she might create a LD gain - and that on a night of general oblivion might swing it. (I know very little about the Lady though - just watching the tealeaves)
Surely though if the LDs need a leader with a bit of nouse there's a candidate that could be swiftly ennobled and made leader closer to home! Always a good bet that fella too!
Labour 45% --> Ed is doomed
Labour 50% --> Ed stays on as LOTO
Labour 55% --> Ed is PM
Labour 50%, UKIP 5% may not be...
The PP tweet is just another way of saying he has a 70%ish chance of winning.. it was 5/6 (54%ish) about 2 months ago and odds against last year..
I took 7/4
Bookie relentlessly tweeting for publicity/lemmngs doing their work for them by putting it on here
IIRC those North East seats had swings last time which, taken at face value, would have forecast a substantial Con majority.
You need about 30 results to accurately forecast the overall outcome, and not even then, if it's going to be close, either in seat parity or near the majority threshold...
As it's becoming a names thread, Palmers have a curious history. The original word was Psalmer, and it was a profession that stemmed from the irritating habit of the Church of Rome requiring rich landowners to make an annual pilgrimage there. As is always their wont, the wealthy chaps found a way round it - they won agreement that they could send someone to pray on their behaslf. A psalmer would toddle over to Rome for Baron X, intone some powerful psalms in the Baron's name, and come home for a decent wage.
I've always thought that didn't sound a bad job, really.
Interesting to see that 3 of the 4 Fife seats in Scotland are likely to declare fairly early at 2:00am. Fife as region voted almost exactly the same as the rest of Scotland in the Indyref. One of the seats is currently held by the Libdems with the SNP on just 14% and in 4th place last time, the other 2 seats are places where the SNP have been challenging Labour in Holyrood and local council elections but miles behind upto now for Westminster elections. The 3 of them combined should give a very good idea as to what is going to happen in the rest of Scotland
Con<->UKIP is I think reasonably stable.
I'm rather interested in the Grimsby area as a UKIP barometer. Greater Grimsby is a possible UKIP gain, although I'm not so sure. There's Cleethorpes and the Hull constituencies in the mix too.
He said that on the Monday before the 1997 GE a national newspaper (Daily Mail?) had the headline "Heseltine and Portillo to battle for Tory leadership"
A few days later Portillo had lost his seat and Heseltine had had a heart attack.
Houghton and Sunderland South (1st to declare)
LAB 50.3%
CON 21.4%
LIB 13.9%
MIN 6.5%
OTH 5.2%
UKIP 2.7%
Green 0.0%
Labour is expected (on UNS) to get 54.5%, Conservatives 17.6% and UKIP 14.2% (Electoralcalculus)
So if Labour get 45% and UKIP 25% then (if the Tory vote holds up) EICIS
@PickardJE: Introducing Labour's "Living Dead" - its 40 beleagured Scotland MPs. http://t.co/57T14BUgVp “I’m now set to Defcon f***ed,” says one.
The article is worth a read though.
Clacton - 4:30
Rochester and Strood - 5:00
Thanet South - 6:00
Castle Point - 2:00
Basildon South & Thurrock East - 3:00
Boston & Skegness - 5.00
Great Yarmouth - 5:30
So Farage's own seat could well be last... likely to have to answer questions (whether good or bad) without kowing his own future.
Cable's chances rely on the Lib Dems winning enough seats to negotiate a coalition but with Clegg losing his seat. Clegg is facing an epic swing away, so not impossible there will be 35 LDs but the leader gone. However I'd price us above 8/1 already.
You then need the parliamentary party to elect a caretaker leader, actually I think Vince could win this as he performed admirably in this role before. However the Tories don't trust him so this would only work with a Lab negotiation, getting it through the party's procedures ( federal executive, parliamentary party, special conference) he then stands down once full leader elected. Not impossible but you are looking at 40/1 ish on all the above from here.
It's shaping up to be a Monty Python fight between sensible vs silly, those who want to achieve whatever they can with compromise, against the more vocal campaigning that's much easier in opposition. One candidate is already in place, Tim Farron in the second category. Lamb vs Davey for the first - as it's AV no need for them to come to an arrangement - but Davey has no chance. Vince sits awkwardly between the two camps, and his star has waned. If it's as above, then Faron walks it.
However any woman re-elected may go for it (Swinson, Featherstone, Burt, Munt, Willott) The LDs well aware of their poor gender balance would make whoever ran a very credible candidate - but none of them are favourites to hold their seats.
He's on the down escalator, come the Pearly Gates.
They want a stable economy, economic and political certainty. If anything its in their narrow selfish interests for us to join the Euro, let alone leave the EU. That aspect of UKIP ought not to gain any traction. Equally the Conservative Party ought to hold no fears, the tory party was in the forefront of bringing Nissan to Sunderland.
The seats will of course stay Labour, but a couple of them had quite large pro tory swings last time so it will be worth looking at. But as they are pretty safe seats the size of the swing if any this time may not be a good indicator.
Sunderland Central was one of those seats where the UKIP candidate suddenly withdrew at short notice in March.