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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

SystemSystem Posts: 12,215
edited April 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Vince Cable the next Lib Dem leader?

VINCE CABLE, the business secretary, is being tipped by senior Liberal Democrats as the party’s next leader if Nick Clegg loses his seat or resigns after a poor result in the general election.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Couldn't care less
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    QTWTAIN
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,222
    edited April 2015
    FPT and Cable will be irrelevant should he lose his seat.
    tlg86 said:

    isam said:

    Last night Matthew Goodwin tweeted three reasons why this South Thanet poll is flawed.. he seems to have deleted the tweets though

    !) UKIP were 5pts ahead in the 1st question
    2) People were asked to "think about current MP" in the 2nd question.. Current MP is standing down
    3) The final question was framed "if it were a legal obligation to vote...."

    ComRes have been polling in this way for nearly ten years and have been asking questions in the form they have. I agree the VI question could have been better. The wording

    Please now think specifically about your own constituency of South Thanet, the issues it faces, the local MP and the different candidates. Who do you think you will vote for in the General Election on May 7th?

    On a general point I'm finding the incessant complaints from UKIP about anything and everything really rather tiresome. All they do is moan. Grow up.
    I think that's unfair Mike. The piece in the Mail on Sunday was flawed in a couple of ways as it was comparing polls from two different pollsters. They also compared current GE VI polls with the result of the 2014 Euro Elections which have a different electoral system (and don't matter!).

    Polls can, in theory, drive voter behaviour. But, if anything, the ComRes poll does Ukip a bit of a favour. It tells us that Ukip have a chance of winning, which we already knew. But it also tells us that Labour have a realistic chance of winning. It would have been far more damaging for Ukip if the poll had shown the Tories and Ukip well ahead of Labour and perhaps prompted some Labour voters to switch to the Tories to keep stop Ukip from winning.

    Ultimately it's up to us as individuals to analyse the state of play and bet accordingly. If you think Ukip aren't going to do that well (what ever well may be), then it's your prerogative to bet as you see fit. But if others want to question your analysis - or anyone else's analysis - then that's their right too.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Does "nuclear" Cable have any credibility left?

    For this to happen you'd need a simultaneous set of: Clegg loses his seat AND Cable keeps his AND the party chooses Cable. I'd want more than 8/1 on that.

    Surely the odds of Clegg losing his seat while Cable keeps his must be quite slim to start with, even before thinking would the party choose to have him as leader?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited April 2015
    FPT:
    Dair said:

    Indigo said:

    Dair said:

    Japan is stagnant because it has virtually no immigration and negative net migration and has had for decades. It's labour protectionism is destroying it.

    If Kippers want to see what their idealised paradise of a post free labour movement country looks like, they just need to consider Japan.

    Are you still continuing with this horsesh*t ? How do you get from "controlled immigration" to "no immigration" ? I suppose you think we had no immigration prior to 1973 ? The "Windrush Generation" never happened ?
    Again Kippers like to look at half the picture. You don't consider just how many were coming to the UK in the 50s and 60s JUST to make up for all the £10 Poms in an age where far more working age Britons were leaving the country than today.

    The Kipper ideas will deliver NONE of their claims. Wages won't increase, productivity won't rise and as the country plummets into economic turmoil, as ALWAYS happens with Blame Parties, instead of admitting their error, they will just say "we need to do more" so reduce it to zero. Then start kicking people out.
    So as with many things, you actually have no clue, and you are just off on another rant, glad that's clear. You first attach some ideas to a party they didn't have, they you say those ideas are a bad idea for reason that are economically illiterate on the rare occasions they are intelligible, and then you generalise it to the sort of people you don't like. Tories, Kippers, SLab, Westminster elites, uncle Toby Cobley, its all the same isn't it.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    Wasn't Ming 'too old' at 66?
  • He's too old already to take on the job. That said, if there are only around 15-20 LibDem MPs in the HoC after the next GE, with no ministerial responsibilities then I suppose it's not that big a deal.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Seems a bit old to take over in opposition, and if the LibDems are staying in government wouldn't Clegg stay, too?

    I guess the interesting angle is if Clegg loses his seat while Cable wins his, and the LibDems need a quick coronation so the country can have a government. At that point his age becomes beneficial, because young cardinals vote for old popes.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    If the LDs want to do a deal with someone, Uncle Vince seems like a poor choice, since he was the personification of the sort of bitching and briefing against the coalition that people really hated, and probably did a lot of damage to the LDs by making them look like an opposition party in government.

    If they want to go onto the back benches and lick their wounds I would have thought there were people better placed to gee up the moral of the party and set the ground work for rebuilding their activist base. Someone with charisma maybe.

    When I worked at IBM they had an acronym IPR (In Plant Retiree) which was used to denote an employee that has stopped working but still appears to be on the payroll, Vince might work hard behind the scenes, but its not the impression he gives voters.
  • @ComResPolls: Full statement about South Thanet poll and tables now published on our website http://t.co/BvOnds95eD
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Funeral directors call them NYD = Not Yet Dead.
    Indigo said:

    If the LDs want to do a deal with someone, Uncle Vince seems like a poor choice, since he was the personification of the sort of bitching and briefing against the coalition that people really hated, and probably did a lot of damage to the LDs by making them look like an opposition party in government.

    If they want to go onto the back benches and lick their wounds I would have thought there were people better placed to gee up the moral of the party and set the ground work for rebuilding their activist base. Someone with charisma maybe.

    When I worked at IBM they had an acronym IPR (In Plant Retiree) which was used to denote an employee that has stopped working but still appears to be on the payroll, Vince might work hard behind the scenes, but its not the impression he gives voters.

  • Ouch

    There have been a number of incorrect reports of the methodology used for this poll which this statement aims to clarify.

    UKIP were reported to have said that the poll's headline figures understated support for Nigel Farage 'because it included people who were not likely to vote and who tended to lean towards the traditional parties'. The tables prove that both assertions are plainly wrong.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    What has Vince done since his one notable Mr Bean jibe, other than make a fool of himself waving his nuclear option in front of a couple of young female journalists. He would struggle to be yesterday's man, never mind tomorrows.

    Vince the man who correctly forecasted 12 of the last 3 recessions, was exposed by Andrew Neil and never recovered.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    Indigo said:

    If the LDs want to do a deal with someone, Uncle Vince seems like a poor choice, since he was the personification of the sort of bitching and briefing against the coalition that people really hated, and probably did a lot of damage to the LDs by making them look like an opposition party in government.

    If they want to go onto the back benches and lick their wounds I would have thought there were people better placed to gee up the moral of the party and set the ground work for rebuilding their activist base. Someone with charisma maybe.

    When I worked at IBM they had an acronym IPR (In Plant Retiree) which was used to denote an employee that has stopped working but still appears to be on the payroll, Vince might work hard behind the scenes, but its not the impression he gives voters.

    Is there any polling on the impression he gives the voters?
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited April 2015
    When I asked the question of JackW just a few days ago, he suggested Lynne Featherstone as a worthwhile outside bet, subject of course to her successfully defending her seat at the GE.
    I take Jack to be an an expert in such matters and accordingly I've backed her with Laddies at odds of 50/1.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Well if the LDs want to completely destroy their party Vince is the man to do it.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Years ago I saw a replica of the Colditz escape plane at the Imperial War Museum - amazing. http://test.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/Colditz-Glider/IMAGES/museum-colditz-glider.jpg

    kingbongo said:

    Plato said:

    OT I feel stupid for never knowing of this chappy of Colditz fame

    ... and even a board game.

    A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
    Cool glider ;) I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London.
    Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg
    Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
    They were big on gliders between the wars too, no?
    I hadn't thought of that, but Wiki seems to agree with you. The Germans tried to get gliding into the Olympics in 1936.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliding#History

    BTW did you see the request earlier for the return of the Donate button?

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Much depends on the Lib Dems' final performance and the extent of their influence. But Vince Cable could only be a transitional leader at his age, so is only a possibility if the Lib Dems expect another election imminently or if, as EiT says, the Lib Dems need a power broker at short notice and Nick Clegg is indisposed. That doesn't sound like an 8/1 bet to me - maybe 25/1.

    The Lib Dem eminences grises are lining up against Tim Farron, but they have yet to line up behind anyone. They'll need to identify a preferred candidate quickly after 7 May, because Mr Farron is going to be out of the traps like a greyhound chasing the rabbit.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    LOL! :D
    Plato said:

    Funeral directors call them NYD = Not Yet Dead.

    Indigo said:

    If the LDs want to do a deal with someone, Uncle Vince seems like a poor choice, since he was the personification of the sort of bitching and briefing against the coalition that people really hated, and probably did a lot of damage to the LDs by making them look like an opposition party in government.

    If they want to go onto the back benches and lick their wounds I would have thought there were people better placed to gee up the moral of the party and set the ground work for rebuilding their activist base. Someone with charisma maybe.

    When I worked at IBM they had an acronym IPR (In Plant Retiree) which was used to denote an employee that has stopped working but still appears to be on the payroll, Vince might work hard behind the scenes, but its not the impression he gives voters.

  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited April 2015
    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Years ago I saw a replica of the Colditz escape plane at the Imperial War Museum - amazing. http://test.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/Colditz-Glider/IMAGES/museum-colditz-glider.jpg

    kingbongo said:

    Plato said:

    OT I feel stupid for never knowing of this chappy of Colditz fame

    ... and even a board game.

    A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
    Cool glider ;) I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London.
    Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg
    Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
    They were big on gliders between the wars too, no?
    I hadn't thought of that, but Wiki seems to agree with you. The Germans tried to get gliding into the Olympics in 1936.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliding#History

    BTW did you see the request earlier for the return of the Donate button?

    Apparently the ban was after WW1 not WW2, then it all makes sense.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glider_infantry

  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Seems a bit old to take over in opposition, and if the LibDems are staying in government wouldn't Clegg stay, too?

    I guess the interesting angle is if Clegg loses his seat while Cable wins his, and the LibDems need a quick coronation so the country can have a government. At that point his age becomes beneficial, because young cardinals vote for old popes.

    Do you have to be an MP to be Lib Dem leader? What does their rule book say?

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Would be the oldest leader of a major political party since Attlee in 1955, and would probably beat him, becoming the oldest since Churchill, also in 1955...
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015
    Thanet S tables look very good indeed for Con.

    Doesn't weight by past vote. 2010 vote in weighted sample is Con 242, Lab 232. But 2010 result was actually Con 48, Lab 31.

    Con has higher retention rate of 2010 voters than Lab. Con 69% retention, Lab 64% retention. On top of that more 2010 LDs go Con than Lab (though only tiny number anyway).

    Finally 31% of 2015 UKIP didn't vote in 2010. 13% of Con 2015 and 15% of Lab 2015 didn't vote in 2010.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    If Vince was the LD leader post 2015 GE, then if there was an equal coalition opportunity then he would chose Labour due to his political background and inbuilt bias, irrespective what was best both for the LD party and the country. Really, should a failed business secretary be assigned that position?
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    That vain old blowhard?

    If thats the best they've got then good luck to them.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    He has to hold his seat.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,275
    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    Kennedy. Leader?

  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    A couple of years ago I might have agreed with you, now I think it really isn't a serious proposition. Kennedy not making any serious contribution during the rerendum was as much a sign of his sadly diminished capabilites as anything.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    @ComResPolls: Full statement about South Thanet poll and tables now published on our website http://t.co/BvOnds95eD

    Looking at the tables Farage leads 28 to 23&23 for the other two and 18% D/K&Refused, but the reallocation of those less than 5/10 and the D/K&Refuse makes it 30/31/29
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    We don't think Vince is going to be turfed out then? ;)
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    I very much doubt whether Kennedy has any influence any more.

    If Clegg fails to hold Hallam or resigns in the aftermath of the election the parliamentary party will elect a deputy leader who would act as an interim leader while a leadership election took place. My guess is that Vince wouldn't win the support of his parliamentary colleagues and it would got to Norman Lamb. The latter would then be ideally placed as the stop Farron at all costs option.

  • kingbongokingbongo Posts: 393

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Years ago I saw a replica of the Colditz escape plane at the Imperial War Museum - amazing. http://test.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/Colditz-Glider/IMAGES/museum-colditz-glider.jpg

    kingbongo said:

    Plato said:

    OT I feel stupid for never knowing of this chappy of Colditz fame

    ... and even a board game.

    A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
    Cool glider ;) I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London.
    Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg
    Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
    They were big on gliders between the wars too, no?
    I hadn't thought of that, but Wiki seems to agree with you. The Germans tried to get gliding into the Olympics in 1936.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliding#History

    BTW did you see the request earlier for the return of the Donate button?

    Apparently the ban was after WW1 not WW2, then it all makes sense.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glider_infantry

    the Germans have been keen on gliding since Otto Lilienthal in the 19th Century - it was one reason they were able to quickly develop the infrastructure to use gliders for Luftwaffe training between the wars
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited April 2015
    IF LD get say 25 seats (or say 30) does anyone have a list of who those 25 / 30 people would most likely be?

    Would be useful re whether they are more likely to lean Con or Lab (though obviously depends enormously on circumstances of the actual numbers). If genuine straight Con/ Lab choice I expect them to go Lab. But if choice of Con or Lab (but requiring SNP)?

    Off the top of my head:

    Leaning Con: Clegg, Laws, Lamb, Davey, Carmichael
    Leaning Lab: Cable, Farron, Kennedy, Hughes, Baker

    Can anyone do a list at say 25 / 30 MPs?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    A couple of years ago I might have agreed with you, now I think it really isn't a serious proposition. Kennedy not making any serious contribution during the rerendum was as much a sign of his sadly diminished capabilites as anything.
    I'm sure that Kennedy not campaigning for scottish independence has diminished him in the eyes of the SNP.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    MikeL said:

    IF LD get say 25 seats (or say 30) does anyone have a list of who those 25 / 30 people would most likely be?

    Would be useful re whether they are more likely to lean Con or Lab (though obviously depends enormously on circumstances).

    Off the top of my head:

    Leaning Con: Clegg, Laws, Lamb, Davey, Carmichael
    Leaning Lab: Cable, Farron, Kennedy, Baker

    Can anyone do a list at say 25 / 30 MPs?

    Kennedy would certainly be leaning.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Good afternoon, everyone.

    It's sunny, and warm, which is rather odd.

    Cable as leader? Doubt it. Age by itself isn't the issue, it's looking past it (same applies to Kennedy). I doubt Lord Oakshott's venom-spewing helped the Cable cause either.

    Is there a [relatively] rightwing potential leader? Or are they all veering off to the left?
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    TSE et al. you said that individually constituency polls were too expensive for parties with capped campaign spending to undertake. How was it that UKIP were able to do one in South Thanet?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004

    Sandpit said:

    FPT:

    rcs1000 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Plato said:

    Years ago I saw a replica of the Colditz escape plane at the Imperial War Museum - amazing. http://test.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/Colditz-Glider/IMAGES/museum-colditz-glider.jpg

    kingbongo said:

    Plato said:

    OT I feel stupid for never knowing of this chappy of Colditz fame

    ... and even a board game.

    A friend of mine owned the game when I was kid - it was actually pretty good as I remember!
    Cool glider ;) I should head to the IWM next time I'm in London.
    Funny that I learned to fly in the similar but German k8
    http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/26/Schleicher_K_8b_D-5727.jpg
    Germany now make almost all of the world's best gliders, they started after WWII when they were banned by international treaty from making powered aeroplanes.
    They were big on gliders between the wars too, no?
    I hadn't thought of that, but Wiki seems to agree with you. The Germans tried to get gliding into the Olympics in 1936.
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gliding#History

    BTW did you see the request earlier for the return of the Donate button?

    Apparently the ban was after WW1 not WW2, then it all makes sense.

    http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glider_infantry

    Yes, you're right, started with the Treaty of Versailles.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    saddened said:

    What has Vince done since his one notable Mr Bean jibe, other than make a fool of himself waving his nuclear option in front of a couple of young female journalists. He would struggle to be yesterday's man, never mind tomorrows.

    Vince the man who correctly forecasted 12 of the last 3 recessions, was exposed by Andrew Neil and never recovered.

    The Mr Bean jibe wasn't even his - it was in Guido earlier that week and doubtless elsewhere too. And yes, in his day he was just a sandwich-board streetpeddler of doom and lies.

    Anyway, I've got Cable in the DeadPool on a couple of websites - one of which has a prize - so I need him to be otherwise engaged pretty soon.
  • Grandiose said:

    TSE et al. you said that individually constituency polls were too expensive for parties with capped campaign spending to undertake. How was it that UKIP were able to do one in South Thanet?

    They carried it out before the short campaign. The fieldwork was before the short period began.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,155
    edited April 2015
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    A couple of years ago I might have agreed with you, now I think it really isn't a serious proposition. Kennedy not making any serious contribution during the rerendum was as much a sign of his sadly diminished capabilites as anything.
    I'm sure that Kennedy not campaigning for scottish independence has diminished him in the eyes of the SNP.
    What the SNP think about Kennedy in this context is irrelevant. If you can point to one significant intervention, policy speech, media appearance or HoC contribution that Kennedy has made since 2010 I'm happy to revise my opinion. His last QT appearance was pitiful.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    If UKIP was really projecting the right message, then it would win seats in places like Rotherham, Rochdale and Oxford. However, it appears to be failing in this respect as it has failed to create and maintain a groundswell of opposition to the failed administrations that were/are in place locally. Can PB UKIPers give the reason why?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    edited April 2015
    Grandiose said:

    TSE et al. you said that individually constituency polls were too expensive for parties with capped campaign spending to undertake. How was it that UKIP were able to do one in South Thanet?

    This wasn't commissioned by UKIP but by a party donor and the work took place before the official short campaign started.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Speedy said:

    Speedy said:

    I think it depends on the make up of the remnants of the LD's, how many of it's MP's and members will be on the left or on the right, and will the taint of being a minister of the coalition be too much of a negative.

    I think it all comes down to Kennedy, if he retains his seat he will be either leader or kingmaker.

    A couple of years ago I might have agreed with you, now I think it really isn't a serious proposition. Kennedy not making any serious contribution during the rerendum was as much a sign of his sadly diminished capabilites as anything.
    I'm sure that Kennedy not campaigning for scottish independence has diminished him in the eyes of the SNP.
    We predicted that he would rue the day.
  • I think ComRes are really pissed off by UKIP

    @Andrew_ComRes: #UKIP statement quoted here http://t.co/UChIlZvivq contains factual 'inaccuracies', for correct methodology read http://t.co/598ch1z0ij
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited April 2015
    If the same people voted as in 2010 for the big 3 and no one else, then the result according to that table will be CON 35.4 LAB 23.7 UKIP 19.2 LD 18.1.

    So the LD would be up 3% on their 2010 result, quite improbable.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.
  • state_go_awaystate_go_away Posts: 5,818
    been looking through the tissues and think the best bet out there at the moment is Farage to get less of a percentage share of the vote in his seat than Clegg (his only rival really) ,Cameron, Miliband and Salmond- at 5/4. (betfair sportsbook)

    If you think its just between Clegg and Farage then Clegg is a more strong favourite to win his seat and there is only 1 main rival in Hallam
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004

    Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.

    Not just that but it's clearly a 3-way marginal, so no tactical voting and everything to play for in the next month to get out the vote.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I prefer Q3, Table 3 as a more clear cut comparison with the Survation poll.
  • Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.

    Well they should spreading inaccuracies about the poll and the methodology therein.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?

    Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    antifrank said:

    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?

    Wilkinson is effectively a double "son" - Will, Wilkins, Wilkinson. Though I appreciate that's not exactly what you're looking for.
    Thanks for that , much appreciated .
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Cable has passed his sell-by-date and is fraying at the edges, TSE. 2007 is a long time ago for ageing men, and he is a lot less spritely now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    Totally off topic .

    I am doing some research on surnames with reference to those appended by Son for example OGH Smithson .
    In Scandinavia it is not uncommon to find names appended by the similar dotter ( daughter )
    Does anyone know of any English surnames ending in daughter ?
    And perhaps a stranger question does anyone know of any surnames ending in two sons eg
    Smithson(s)son ?

    Used to be a cycle shop in Southend.... James Browning & Daughter.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Mr. Senior, if that's relevant then Pugh might be of interest to you. It comes from 'ap Hugh' meaning 'son of Hugh'.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Comparing the tables of Comres with the Survation ones I think Farage has gone down 5% since mid-February.
    Pretty much in line with the national UKIP decline.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    "War hero's fury as Ukip poster outside his home defaced with SWASTIKAS" >>> http://t.co/HP24PNLMj7 #UKIP pic.twitter.com/Iieojk1Gxj

    — Kirk Kus (@KirkKus) April 5, 2015
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    The old reliable method for losing money from Clacton and Rochester?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015

    Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.

    Well they should spreading inaccuracies about the poll and the methodology therein.
    Only person I noticed doing that was Matthew Goodwin, who isn't a Kipper.

    Who else?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    isam said:

    The old reliable method for losing money from Clacton and Rochester?
    Wait: weren't the opinion polls from Clacton and Rochester both broadly right?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    Anyway UKIP -6.5 vs Tories in South Thanet

    Even money still available
  • isam said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.

    Well they should spreading inaccuracies about the poll and the methodology therein.
    Only person I noticed doing that was Matthew Goodwin, who isn't a Kipper.

    Who else?
    UKIP did

    Ukip has seized on this as ‘wishful thinking and numerical trickery which only the establishment parties gain from’. A spokesman said in a statement:

    ‘The poll shows that amongst those likely to vote, Nigel Farage is five points ahead of both the Conservative and Labour in South Thanet. It’s only after ComRes’s questionable methodology is applied, including weighting back to 2010 vote share, and producing a question which includes a false incumbency factor by alluding to the previous MP that the numbers magically change. The figures even include people who say they aren’t voting this time.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-poll-that-could-mean-the-end-for-nigel-farage/
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712
    edited April 2015
    Can't think of an equivalent to "dottir" in either English or Welsh, although I'm told that the large number of hyphenated surnames in Wales is because custom specified, after surnames were introduced, that if a man gave his son his wife's maiden name, then the son would inherit from both families.

    Hence Rhys Jones, the son of Mary Griffiths and Twn Jones would inherit from Twm's father, but if he was Rhys Griffiths-Jones he would inherit from both grandparents.
    My father believed this, and practised it, but neither my sister nor II got anything from our maternal grandfather. Mind, he was English, so probably didn't accept the custom. He also died before either of us was born!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    The old reliable method for losing money from Clacton and Rochester?
    Wait: weren't the opinion polls from Clacton and Rochester both broadly right?
    Yes, it was Heywood & Middleton that was nearly the surprise upset - on the same night as Clacton.
  • Vince appears to have a tremor these days. Check it out next time he is on tv. He should be retiring.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    The old reliable method for losing money from Clacton and Rochester?
    Wait: weren't the opinion polls from Clacton and Rochester both broadly right?
    They both had UKIP winning easily, and they did both times I guess
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015

    isam said:

    Mr. Eagles, I'm surprised if UKIP are annoyed by the poll finding. Doesn't it have them 1% off winning? That's not bad.

    Well they should spreading inaccuracies about the poll and the methodology therein.
    Only person I noticed doing that was Matthew Goodwin, who isn't a Kipper.

    Who else?
    UKIP did

    Ukip has seized on this as ‘wishful thinking and numerical trickery which only the establishment parties gain from’. A spokesman said in a statement:

    ‘The poll shows that amongst those likely to vote, Nigel Farage is five points ahead of both the Conservative and Labour in South Thanet. It’s only after ComRes’s questionable methodology is applied, including weighting back to 2010 vote share, and producing a question which includes a false incumbency factor by alluding to the previous MP that the numbers magically change. The figures even include people who say they aren’t voting this time.

    http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/04/the-poll-that-could-mean-the-end-for-nigel-farage/
    Hmm that statement is a paraphrase of Goodwin's deleted tweets...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    ComRes Thanet.
    Looking at table 7
    "Which party do you think would be your second choice to vote for on 7th May?"

    Labour voters prefer UKIP to Con.
    Con voters prefer UKIP to Lab
    LD voters prefer: Con 21%, Lab 17%, UKIP 4%

    http://ht.ly/Ldybq
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Vince would need to explain what he's actually achieved as Business secretary. Will Hutton is a fan but even he admits he's about the only one.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Can't think of an equivalent to "dottir" in either English or Welsh, although I'm told that the large number of hyphenated surnames in Wales is because custom specified, after surnames were introduced, that if a man gave his son his wife's maiden name, then the son would inherit from both families.

    Hence Rhys Jones, the son of Mary Griffiths and Twn Jones would inherit from Twm's father, but if he was Rhys Griffiths-Jones he would inherit from both grandparents.
    My father believed this, and practised it, but neither my sister nor II got anything from our maternal grandfather. Mind, he was English, so probably didn't accept the custom. He also died before either of us was born!

    I thought the welsh custom was to give lineage by 'son of':

    John ap Paul ap Ringo ap George
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Scotland latest
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG

    Hint of a slight uptick for Labour, could just be noise...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587
    I'd have thought a genuine leadership contender would not have to so publicly dismiss the leadership credentials of a rival, they'd have someone able to do that for them without being too obvious about it.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    I honestly think Cable would make a lot of sense as the next Lib Dem leader.

    The thing about Farron is that the general public don't know who he is. And I think the risk is that, any "new" Lib Dem who comes along in the future, people are just going to project their general image of the party (untrustworthy and weak pushovers) onto that person and not even really give them a chance. I think to cut through, any Lib Dem is already going to have to already have established their own individual identity separate from the party.

    Vince has the advantage of already being established to the public, and of still retaining some kind of trust and popularity (I think the polls usually show he's one of the more popular members of the govt of either party). In fact he's pretty much the only Lib Dem left who ticks both the established and trusted boxes, unless we're counting Charlie Kennedy, may God rest his soul.
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 664
    edited April 2015
    The boards are going out in North Oxford for the Lib Dems and my parents are joining in. There is some enthusiasm left in the LD machine but not as much as needed. It is time the Lib Dems pass the baton to the next generation and I cant see the LD joining any new coalition. If Vince does become leader it will be temporary as before.

    This is not the election for UKIP but their time will come as they have some strong arguments that need addressing. The coalition's foreign policy has been very weak. Hague has probably underperformed more than any other minister. UKIP have little to say on domestic policy.

    On the other hand I see this as the peak for the SNP. The party existed for a single major issue which was devolution of power from Westminster. This project is yet to be completed but will be soon. The diehard nationalists are growing old and the young generation as my son points out are very fickle and not really that concerned about nationalism. Nicola's communistic style plays well with a section of the population (some in England) but ultimately does not represent the new generation of Scots and the oil price drop has killed the idea that the population can be bought off to vote for independence. Yet for one election and probably one election only Scottish Labour is to be wiped out. Cant say I will miss them.



  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,712

    Can't think of an equivalent to "dottir" in either English or Welsh, although I'm told that the large number of hyphenated surnames in Wales is because custom specified, after surnames were introduced, that if a man gave his son his wife's maiden name, then the son would inherit from both families.

    Hence Rhys Jones, the son of Mary Griffiths and Twn Jones would inherit from Twm's father, but if he was Rhys Griffiths-Jones he would inherit from both grandparents.
    My father believed this, and practised it, but neither my sister nor II got anything from our maternal grandfather. Mind, he was English, so probably didn't accept the custom. He also died before either of us was born!

    I thought the welsh custom was to give lineage by 'son of':

    John ap Paul ap Ringo ap George
    Yup. Then English-style surnames came in.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    edited April 2015
    antifrank said:

    Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.

    I've been laying Gordon Brown, David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon not to win a seat at sub 10.0 this morning. Am I missing something here or are the backers just being daft ?

    Not done D Miliband but same principle surely...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    No Simon Hughes?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    isam said:

    Anyway UKIP -6.5 vs Tories in South Thanet

    Even money still available

    I'll take £100 on that.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited April 2015
    rcs1000 said:

    isam said:

    Anyway UKIP -6.5 vs Tories in South Thanet

    Even money still available

    I'll take £100 on that.
    Righto

    Anyone else its UKIP -5.5
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    antifrank said:

    Those nice people at Coral still have 1/5 on Labour retaining Ashfield. This was always a nice price, but recent news makes it very generous.

    Unfortunately there is no constituency poll for Ashfield, Labour won it with a very low 34% and a majority of 192 from the LD, with the LD out of contention but Labour not very high it's a straight LAB-UKIP fight, but LAB should win easily with UKIP being down in the polls.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    Not a single woman !!!
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140
    rcs1000 said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    No Simon Hughes?
    The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited April 2015
    surbiton said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    Not a single woman !!!
    There's a few women standing in current Lib Dem seats where the incumbent isn't running (Hazel Grove, Berwick upon Tweed, Poole, Gordon) but I'm not sure any of those are even in the bag for them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,963
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Elect.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,636
    Danny565 said:

    surbiton said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    Not a single woman !!!
    There's a few women standing in current Lib Dem seats where the incumbent isn't running (Hazel Grove, Berwick upon Tweed, Poole, Gordon) but I'm not sure any of those are even in the bag for them.
    None of those are likely LibDem holds - although if someone will offer me 5-1 on the LibDems getting at least one, I'd probably take it :-)
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    RodCrosby said:

    Scotland latest
    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/13331381/Scotland.PNG

    Hint of a slight uptick for Labour, could just be noise...

    Unless Labour hits 32%, it doesn't mean much. Above that, there is a rich seam of seats to be had.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Pulpstar said:
    It would be interesting to look at the ComRes one, to see if they did anything different to this Thanet poll, but the PDF link is dead.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    ukelect said:

    rcs1000 said:

    ukelect said:

    LD MPs forecast to survive by UK-Elect are: John Hemming, Roger Williams, Stephen Williams
    Julian Huppert, Tom Brake, Mark Williams, Mark Hunter, Martin Horwood, Bob Russell, Stephen Lloyd, Mike Thornton, Edward Davey, Greg Mulholland, Norman Baker, Dan Rogerson, Nick Harvey, Norman Lamb, Alistair Carmichael, John Pugh, Paul Burstow, Steve Webb, Adrian Sanders, Vince Cable, Tim Farron, David Laws. If that's right the next leader would presumably be one of them...

    No Simon Hughes?
    The prediction is of a defeat by 68 votes.
    How safe a hold do you think Stephen Williams is, and who is in 2nd there ?

    Also do you have Gerald Vernon Jackson in 2nd place, and if so by how far ?
  • ukelectukelect Posts: 140

    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Elect.

    Thank you. I've been reading it for years, and even commented once or twice before under a different name that I've forgotten.
  • Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    'If the named prospective candidate fails to stand at the next UK general election, all bets on that person will be void.'
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    This talk of Vince as an interim "safe pair of hands" leader makes it look very much like the Party think Clegg will lose his seat....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,004
    edited April 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/politics/market?id=1.118019181

    Utterly risk free 5% laying David Miliband and Nicola Sturgeon to win a seat at the GE @ 20.0.

    Ha Ha Ha - Pile in!
    Well Spotted ;)
This discussion has been closed.