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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Big hope for the Tories: Labour’s cack-handed campaigning will alienate 2010 LD switchers and tacticals
The only chance that LAB has on May 7th is by keeping on board the 2010 LD switchers who’ve moved since last time and winning support of yellow tactical voters in the marginals. Labour’s polling position has been buttressed the ex-LDs for the past four years.
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Test0
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Has everyone gone to bed?0
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Nope!0
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OMG I think that is my first first
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Don't see the issue. Some voters may not be happy with cuts to Police and the Lib Dems being soft on crime. Will it win votes ? Pass
I would hope that Labour have other messages for the people of Bedford.0 -
I thought I saw this tweet this morning... clearly OGH is displeased....
Probably Lucy Powell's brightest idea.0 -
Seeing a few comments from parties in the last few days when asked about coalition possibilities, and sticking to the script re 'focusing on a majority' on all that, part of me wonders if they shouldn't change the script by now.
Obviously no-one wants to give the impression they are planning for such an outcome, or think it is likely, but the current evasive answer has had it's short lifespan already I feel, and surely doesn't fool anyone with its carefully phrased generalities. Just mix up the words and say something like 'We are confident we will win and that is our focus, but obviously we will consider the situation carefully whatever happens, but cannot confirm what would happen before then'. Ok, maybe it shows a little less bravado than they want, but how much would it hurt, honestly, to say they think they will win (even if they do not think that), and even if they didn't wouldn't guarantee working with anyone else.0 -
Come on Mike....join the Blue Liberals. You know you want to.
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The mind boggles - Bercow related?TheScreamingEagles said:Tomorrow's Sun is being hyped
https://twitter.com/craigawoodhouse/status/5844519462469959690 -
Get over it!felix said:OMG I think that is my first first
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I'd put the leaflet's focus as unnecessary more than anything else. The Red Liberals don't need that much urging it would seem
Is that Tory voters who are more liberal than most, or LD voters who are more conservative than most?chestnut said:Come on Mike....join the Blue Liberals. You know you want to.
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@alanbeattie: UKIP candidate stands down at last minute to emigrate for work abroad. Yes, really. (h/t @campaigner) http://t.co/NtvEwEg8JD0
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From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.0 -
Now,now your turn next.peter_from_putney said:
Get over it!felix said:OMG I think that is my first first
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Gordon Brown to be the source of the Sturgeon-leak....
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Quite a lot of last minute withdrawals... this one, Dundee the other day...Scott_P said:@alanbeattie: UKIP candidate stands down at last minute to emigrate for work abroad. Yes, really. (h/t @campaigner) http://t.co/NtvEwEg8JD
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This forum has problems tonight. When you log on the comments box is missing and you have to refresh the screen to get it to appear. Also sometimes comments appear to have gone missing, but another refresh shows the comments. It does not normally do this.0
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I hope you cleared that joke with the DG...Scrapheap_as_was said:Gordon Brown to be the source of the Sturgeon-leak....
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If Mark Reckless loses Rochester, their willingness to jump might be rather limited...TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.0 -
This thread is spot on the money.
Almost every beneficial Lib vote is now with Labour. It has tapped the well to its absolute extreme. Campaigning for more with anti-Liberal strategies is a complete waste of time.0 -
I will put you down as a maybe then....TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Farage can 'believe' what he likes. But unless he provides evidence, it just more purple hot airrcs1000 said:
If Mark Reckless loses Rochester, their willingness to jump might be rather limited...TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.0 -
Bye Bye TPD!rcs1000 said:
If Mark Reckless loses Rochester, their willingness to jump might be rather limited...TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.0 -
I think former LD supporters will know that LDs have supported every single Tory cut and be pretty disgusted with the LDs.
Attacking them from the right as per that poster pretty dumb though0 -
Agree. Insane leaflet. Labour have always had this idea that to appear TOUGH and illiberal is the way to win the public's hearts and minds. It's completely off putting and not just to Lib Dems0
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Broxtowe voter?FrancisUrquhart said:I will put you down as a maybe then....
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It is reminding people of lost Police officers under the coalition. But of course this means that Labour are committed to spending more on Police. Have not heard them say that.Dair said:This thread is spot on the money.
Almost every beneficial Lib vote is now with Labour. It has tapped the well to its absolute extreme. Campaigning for more with anti-Liberal strategies is a complete waste of time.0 -
RE: LDs
A poster on UK Polling Report put up a graph of 2010 LD voters current VI over time. It appears to show a late swing to the Conservatives.
http://i.imgur.com/y5ZMjFJ.png
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9327/comment-page-3#comment-9870760 -
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Greetings from Amshterdam!
Part-ELBOW for the week so far updated for Opinium - Tory lead pegged back ever so slightly to 0.4%. Only YouGov (assuming there's one overnight) can spoil the first official Tory lead* in ELBOW since the series begain last August!
(*There was a Tory lead of 0.01% a few weeks ago but this was rounded down to 0.0%!)0 -
Well with Labour going to cut about as much as the Tories (particularly as the Tories have rather awkwardly for Labour not done the job properly and left plenty of cuts left to come), apparently their disgust will only be around how much they think the person doing the cutting is enjoying doing it if as it seems they will be voting Labour now. Strikes me as pretty silly to make that distinction, but whatever works for them.bigjohnowls said:I think former LD supporters will know that LDs have supported every single Tory cut and be pretty disgusted with the LDs.
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How many more defections were predicted / expected after Rochester?TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.
And then in the New Year?
I remember specifically that defections were "expected" once it got past the date when a by-election could no longer be called.0 -
No, I voted tactically in 2010 and will do so again this year. In Ludlow it doesn't make a great deal of difference mind... The LD's would currently be making a decent fist of tempting me back from a flirtation with Green if it wasn't for the fear that they'll spend another 5 years enabling the forces of evil.0
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@NCPoliticsUK: Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews) http://t.co/SqRmz0SB7X0
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What the pub landlord isn't in the running?Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews) http://t.co/SqRmz0SB7X
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Nobody is going to 'jump' if that happensTheScreamingEagles said:UKIP buried poll showing Farage losing Thanet South
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxl4e2WIAAOoSx.jpg0 -
What a fabulous chart. It appears to show:anotherDave said:RE: LDs
A poster on UK Polling Report put up a graph of 2010 LD voters current VI over time. It appears to show a late swing to the Conservatives.
http://i.imgur.com/y5ZMjFJ.png
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/9327/comment-page-3#comment-987076
1. The LibDem -> Labour switchers have been in decline
2. LibDem -> Conservatvies are on the rise
3. LibDem -> UKIP has been flat
4. LibDem -> LibDem has been awful for a long-time, but is not getting any worse
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Sorry that's not how political campaigning works.hucks67 said:
It is reminding people of lost Police officers under the coalition. But of course this means that Labour are committed to spending more on Police. Have not heard them say that.Dair said:This thread is spot on the money.
Almost every beneficial Lib vote is now with Labour. It has tapped the well to its absolute extreme. Campaigning for more with anti-Liberal strategies is a complete waste of time.
There's only two types of political message. Hope/Change and X=Bad. This is an X(Liberal)=Bad. It's completely wasted. People don't vote for more police or less crime. They vote for a better future or to stop an enemy.0 -
Farage feels the cold knife of betrayal in his back. Played like a Stradivarius by the Mail for 5 years but now thrown under a bus.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
Beware of leaks!Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews) http://t.co/SqRmz0SB7X
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I thought it was "interesting" ? Lib Dem up a lot I guess.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
@NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/Times:
CON 34 (-3)
LAB 33 (-2)
LIB 10 (+3)
UKIP 13 (+1)
GRN 4 (-1)
Fieldwork 3rd-4th
Cleggmania 2? Daily roundup to follow!
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Farage losing would be glorious. Less so than Salmond losing, though!Scott_P said:
Nobody is going to 'jump' if that happensTheScreamingEagles said:UKIP buried poll showing Farage losing Thanet South
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxl4e2WIAAOoSx.jpg
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Tim Shipman @ShippersUnbound · 1 min1 minute ago
YouGov/Sunday Times poll: Tories lead by 1 point.
Con 34%
Lab 33%
LD 10%
Ukip 13%
SNP/PC 5%
Green 4%
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It is not that interesting - but to come out of that 'debate' in front will keep the Blues smilingTheScreamingEagles said:
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The YG poll is surprisingly ok for the Tories.0
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@ShippersUnbound: S.Times splash: Tories now the party of workers. 56% say Cons good for employees of large firms, 12% say they’re bad. Lab 28% good, 27% bad
@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times: Cameron personal rating now +2 (was -1 last week), Miliband -260 -
I believe some of us pointed out that 'they would say that wouldn't they' if the opposite was true - re recent reports on PB from our kipper friends who were reporting the Tories had given up in S Thanet and were nowhere, the blues needed to support Nigel to stop Labour....Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews) http://t.co/SqRmz0SB7X
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EIC?TheScreamingEagles said:@ShippersUnbound: S.Times splash: Tories now the party of workers. 56% say Cons good for employees of large firms, 12% say they’re bad. Lab 28% good, 27% bad
@ShippersUnbound: YouGov/Sunday Times: Cameron personal rating now +2 (was -1 last week), Miliband -26
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I think the Conservatives will be reasonably happy with that.
Still ahead in a poll taken immediately after the debate.
5 weeks to go by when the debate will be long forgotten.0 -
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Lol the Smithson effect and the Red liberals swing back in full flow.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/Times:
CON 34 (-3)
LAB 33 (-2)
LIB 10 (+3)
UKIP 13 (+1)
GRN 4 (-1)
Fieldwork 3rd-4th
Cleggmania 2? Daily roundup to follow!
#GE2015 0 -
Tonights YG - EICIPM (just about)
Not sure what ramping earlier was about
Or has the Sunday Sun got another YG?0 -
I must admit I find it hard to take The Independent seriously these days. They certainly aren't independent and do love to overplay their hand.TheScreamingEagles said:Time to lay Theresa May as next Tory leader
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/5844558382549524480 -
Huzzah, This means YG guarantees a Tory lead in an official end-of-week ELBOW for the first time!!!0
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Anybody got an idea of the detail in that Thanet polling?
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Ha! Not as dramatic a round of changes as I would have liked for amusement's sake, but not bad. Let's see if the LDs can keep a double digit score for a couple of days, and we'll all have been fools for doubting their strategy of turtling up.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: YouGov/Times:
CON 34 (-3)
LAB 33 (-2)
LIB 10 (+3)
UKIP 13 (+1)
GRN 4 (-1)
Fieldwork 3rd-4th
Cleggmania 2?
Bit harsh on the Greens, given Bennett did alright and was left free to put her views without being attacked in the debates, which could have improved her personal image somewhat. Hasn't filtered through to the party VI if it has happened I guess.
Quite apart from my unionist quavering at the SNP landslide, Salmond losing would be a fantastic result simply because it seems such a foregone conclusion. Massive upsets always nice to see. A loss to the Commons if he did lose though.RobD said:
Farage losing would be glorious. Less so than Salmond losing, though!Scott_P said:
Nobody is going to 'jump' if that happensTheScreamingEagles said:UKIP buried poll showing Farage losing Thanet South
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxl4e2WIAAOoSx.jpg0 -
Lib Dems up 30%. Not bad!0
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It`s really bizarre.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!0 -
I think the 'interesting' thing is that like all the other polls this w/e there is virtually no change. A nice bit of egg on the faces of the broadcasters.bigjohnowls said:Tonights YG - EICIPM (just about)
Not sure what ramping earlier was about
Or has the Sunday Sun got another YG?0 -
(a) Farage has form of making fanciful claims about Tory defects. He knows he's losing traction and wants to try to destabilize the Tories. I smell BS.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.
(b) If the Tories don't have enough votes to get a referendum approved by the HoC it doesn't happen. So either the LibDems get to dictate the terms, or there isn't a vote. Now personally, I think they'd be crazy to try and amend the terms of the referendum (eg including EU nationals) as it will really piss off a lot of voters who will think it a fix but the pro-EU side. Far better to trade it for something valuable for themselves (eg STV for local elections) than mess around.
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Read the OP -- this leaflet was targeted at LibDem voters -- so (a) don't start by insulting them, and (b) don't campaign on authoritarianism.hucks67 said:Don't see the issue. Some voters may not be happy with cuts to Police and the Lib Dems being soft on crime. Will it win votes ? Pass
I would hope that Labour have other messages for the people of Bedford.0 -
Sunder Katwala @sundersays · 2 mins2 minutes ago
Sunder Katwala retweeted Nick Sutton
Mail on Sunday splash claims UKIP commissioned South Thanet poll which showed Farage in 3rd place behind Cons & Lab
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30th anniversary of the death of Willie McRae tomorrow.0
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Dave's leader ratings are back up to positive territory.SMukesh said:It`s really bizarre.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Which I believe is an indicator of upcoming increase in Tory VI.0 -
If I was Labour I'd be going after the Red Ukkippers - unfortunately Ed has tied himself to the pro-European mast very heavily (going after the lib dems). Unless of course I think I've lost them permanently and are desperately scrabbling for votes.
I think we can expect ever more ludicrous spending/ nationalising policies from Ed in the next 4+ weeks as desperation kicks in.0 -
@jonwalker121: Sunday Times reporting former NY Mayor @MikeBloomberg could be Tory candidate 4 London mayor (@karren_brady has also said she's interested)0
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EXC: Nigel Farage tells Sunday Times six more Tory MPs set to defect to Ukip if Cameron tries another coalition with Lib Dems.0
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I think that's the highest Lib Dem score with YouGov since August last year.Neither Survation or Opinium found any Lib Dem boost though.0
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Nobody defects to a loser...FrancisUrquhart said:EXC: Nigel Farage tells Sunday Times six more Tory MPs set to defect to Ukip if Cameron tries another coalition with Lib Dems.
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Anyone else not seeing links to twitter posts? I thought people were making an odd point by posting blank spaces somehow, which admittedly would have as much content as one of my average comments, but alas was not the case as I could see when 'quoting' the empty spaces. Not seen that error before.0
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He does. Although to be fair, eventually a couple did come true.Charles said:
(a) Farage has form of making fanciful claims about Tory defects.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.0 -
NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK · 13 mins13 minutes ago
Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews)
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Tories ahead with women, surely that can't be correct.TheScreamingEagles said:I think there's a wisdom index in the Telegraph
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxo_KlWMAAO9D7.jpg0 -
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Not as likely to win a by-election I suspect, and ruing the precedent those two had set. A few of them I am sure can act for UKIP in deed if not word just as well under the Tory banner.john_zims said:@TSE
'AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.'
What happened to the ten Tory MP's that were going to defect to UKIP after Carswell & Reckless.0 -
I'm hoping Mr Clegg will provide a TV treasure for election night.RobD said:
Farage losing would be glorious. Less so than Salmond losing, though!Scott_P said:
Nobody is going to 'jump' if that happensTheScreamingEagles said:UKIP buried poll showing Farage losing Thanet South
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CBxl4e2WIAAOoSx.jpg
(Gordon Brown would have been even better.)0 -
Farage losing would be my Portillo moment in the early hours of 8th May...
Particularly as he said he would step down as leader - how delicious0 -
This relies on the assumptions that 2010 Lib Dems are primarily motivated by being socially liberal, and that the ones who are the most socially liberal are the Labour defectors. The polling evidence is against both of these theories.0
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Could you link to a post saying that Cameron did fantastically well in the debates, please? I will then immediately apologise for calling you a trolling sockpuppet.SMukesh said:It`s really bizarre.
PBers tell us Cameron did fantastically well in the debates,yet there is a collective sense of relief if Con lead is reduced!
Thanks.
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Tykejohnno said:
NumbrCrunchrPolitics @NCPoliticsUK · 13 mins13 minutes ago
Mail have seen a leaked private poll showing CON leading in Thanet South, UKIP second, LAB close third (Via @SkyNews)
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Put up or shut up0 -
One thing it is clear, UKIP themselves are on very safe ground with respect to defecting MPs. Bless.0
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Increases for LDs and UKIP - sleazy Tories and Labour on the slide.0
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Thanet ukip poll - Con 31% ukip 30% lab 29%.
Wow,close all 3 parties.0 -
Farage, Clegg, Dougie Alexander, Charlie Kennedy - there are shitloads of potential Portillo moments this time.oxfordsimon said:Farage losing would be my Portillo moment in the early hours of 8th May...
Particularly as he said he would step down as leader - how delicious0 -
Does ComRes weight their polls against 2010 GE voting which may explain collapse in UKIP vote in Thanet South in comparison to Survation?0
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There's a lot of game playing going on by all sides in Thanet South, probably expected for a tight three way marginal where each side are fighting for the same voters. The fact Farage could come third in one poll and 11% ahead in another shows that it's an unpredictable seat and Farage will have no idea if he will be a MP until election night itself.
Edit-Farage could easily still be ahead going on that poll.0 -
c) If I was a particularly mischievous Tory backbencher, I might waste Farage's time by talking to him about defecting, and report back to CCHQ everything that was said, and especially names. If I was particularly mischievous I might go further, and lead Farage to call the press pack out to the middle of nowhere and not turn up. :-)Charles said:
(a) Farage has form of making fanciful claims about Tory defects. He knows he's losing traction and wants to try to destabilize the Tories. I smell BS.TheScreamingEagles said:From the Sunday Times
AT LEAST six Tory MPs will defect to Ukip if David Cameron tries to form another coalition with the Liberal Democrats, Nigel Farage believes.
The Ukip leader claims Conservatives who do not want another power-sharing deal with Nick Clegg “under any circumstances” are preparing to jump ship after the election.
In an interview with The Sunday Times, Farage said he had had conversations with “more than a handful” of Tories about joining Ukip if Cameron offers an in-out referendum on EU membership on terms dictated by the Lib Dems.
(b) If the Tories don't have enough votes to get a referendum approved by the HoC it doesn't happen. So either the LibDems get to dictate the terms, or there isn't a vote. Now personally, I think they'd be crazy to try and amend the terms of the referendum (eg including EU nationals) as it will really piss off a lot of voters who will think it a fix but the pro-EU side. Far better to trade it for something valuable for themselves (eg STV for local elections) than mess around.0
