politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now some polling news to cheer the blue team up
Today's YouGov for Sun had LAB lead down to just 6%
CON 32
LAB 38
LD 10
UKIP 13
Comments
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It is the lack of ties at Enniskillen wot did it.
Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.0 -
Cameron is "best PM" across all UK regions, both sexes, all age groups and both social grades.
EdM is supported by 58% of LAB VI and 48% of 2010 LAB.0 -
It could be a bit of an outlier, but Labour's lead is now below 10% with all main polling organisations.0
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4% of Labour voters want a Conservative government.0
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It is interesting that London voters who as usual are more in favour of Labour than the Cons, support DC over EdM by 40/17 and a Con majority by 34/25 over a Labour majority.0
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Yet in the, "what do you want" section, 41% of people appear to want a labour led administration in some form (29 + 12), including 25% of UKIP voters.
2% of labour voters think a conservative majority would be best for the country? I can only assume they surveyed Dan Hodges.0 -
Joking apart, no doubt a few days of Cameron looking Prime Ministerial will have helped - I suspect "events" will drag him back down a tad over the coming week - tho it may also be the fruits of Labour revealing policies,,,,,AveryLP said:It is the lack of ties at Enniskillen wot did it.
Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
OT - sad news on the 51 year old Gandolfini:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22980414#FBM2530370 -
If only Labour back benchers panicked like Tory ones......Sean_F said:It could be a bit of an outlier, but Labour's lead is now below 10% with all main polling organisations.
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Even 2010 Lib Dems prefer Cameron to Miliband. Maybe he should have made all those Red Conservative announcements instead of his shadow ministers?
Time will tell but doesn't look like Miliband is managing to repeat Brown's old trick. Remember this from September 2007?
In the wide-ranging interview, Mr Brown's first with a quality newspaper since he entered No 10, he disclosed how he intends to force Mr Cameron off the centre ground. "I want this government to be not partisan but speak for the whole of Britain. I want us not to be in any way sectional but be a government that genuinely unifies the country. And I will tell my own party, too."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1890396/posts0 -
It's just one poll.0
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Ed Milliband < Neil Kinnock0
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Looks like Burnham is preparing the ground for Labour's next U-turn:
"Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham has told Pulse that the NHS is already ‘lost’ and any further privatisation would make it ‘irretrievable’."
‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK00 -
Drifty very drifty.
For a change of government vote you need reasons. Negatives vs the Cons are diminishing. Positive for Labour ? There arent any.0 -
Three reasons why Labour's lead is being wittled and Ed is slipping
!. Twigg APPEARING to agree with Gove's education policy. BIG MISTAKE
2. Ed shocking at PMQ's according to most BBC commentators
3. Camden council describing why they were being forced to house a girl with a child outside the borough because they couldn't meet her requirements-a ground floor flat with two bedrooms and a garden because she had a three year old child and bad legs- with the £26,000 cap. She turned up with a lawyer and a labour councillor. The story got a lot of publicity and the public reaction was unanimously hostile.
The last two days produced the perfect storm. He'll rise like a phoenix.....0 -
Having seen the reaction of Labour supporters on the NHS on here and elsewhere, I have shifted my position on the NHS. The NHS as an organisation may or may not be safe in Conservative hands, but patients aren't safe in Labour's hands.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Burnham is preparing the ground for Labour's next U-turn:
"Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham has told Pulse that the NHS is already ‘lost’ and any further privatisation would make it ‘irretrievable’."
‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK0
Labour seems more interested in the NHS as an organisation - or an ideal - than they are in the welfare of patients. Yesterday's report into the CQC shows this very well. An organisation set up by Labour to regulate healthcare and social services, and a year later it is covering up wrongdoings.
Add to this the payments to whistle-blowers.
Add to this the attacks on relatives trying to get justice in Stafford and elsewhere.
Putting all of this together, it becomes obvious that some see the NHS as an ideal worthy of protection, rather than an organisation dedicated to helping patients.
And Labour is complicit in this mindset.0 -
Yougov have ballsed it up this week. They always tend to go for the best poll for the Conservatives for a Friday so it can calm their activists down......revert back to 9% Labour lead tomorrow. Shows sign of the times "Now the best batch of polling news for the Tories for months" Labour overall 6% in front, Labour ahead in every region bar the south, Labour ahead in both grouped social classes, labour ahead with both women and men and labour ahead in all age groups par the over 60's. At least it will get Dan Hodges excited and he can start talking about Ed Milliband being crap ........again.
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Did anyone find out how long Red Mick Gove was out on strike for by the way? http://politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/gove_picket.jpg-1
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TBH I doubt any of these registered with voters - only saddos like us!Roger said:Three reasons why Labour's lead is being wittled and Ed is slipping
!. Twigg APPEARING to agree with Gove's education policy. BIG MISTAKE
2. Ed shocking at PMQ's according to most BBC commentators
3. Camden council describing why they were being forced to house a girl with a child outside the borough because they couldn't meet her requirements-a ground floor flat with two bedrooms and a garden because she had a three year old child and bad legs- with the £26,000 cap. She turned up with a lawyer and a labour councillor. The story got a lot of publicity and the public reaction was unanimously hostile.
The last two days produced the perfect storm. He'll rise like a phoenix.....
This poll is still within MOE - as would be a Labour lead of 12 tomorrow.....
IF these lower leads are sustained we may be seeing a slow improvement in the economy - and the continuing lack of any coherent alternative Labour narrative of what they would do differently.0 -
@JosiasJessop - I think you may be painting Labour with slightly too broad a brush on the NHS - tho as with Education, they do often appear to be in thrall to the producers (Teachers) rather than consumers (pupils) and inputs (number of nurses/teachers) rather than outputs (health outcomes / educational attainment).0
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CarlottaVance - "TBH I doubt any of these registered with voters - only saddos like us! " Never a truer set of words. The only time some people generally see the leaders is for a five minute clip about PMQ's on the news (and they are only the ones watching the news) or something in the papers. I would say most peoples voting urges come from their own personal circumstances.0
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Carlotta
"TBH I doubt any of these registered with voters - only saddos like us!"
Normally I'd agree with you but i've hardly been following politics recently but just heard this background noise which kept suggesting Ed was being pretty useless. If I'd been a floating voter filling in a yougov poll yesterday I wouldn't be supporting ED.
There was some real anger towards this girl from Camden and her backers because of her sense of entitlement. Unless you live in Central London £26,000 for a Mother and child sounds quite generous.
This benefit cap is a serious elephant trap for Labour and one they'll have to sort out.0 -
You make my point for me. The fury directed at a woman who is trying to get justice for her dead relative at Stafford is quite something, and just because she had the temerity to speak up and show the NHS in a poor light.CarlottaVance said:@JosiasJessop - I think you may be painting Labour with slightly too broad a brush on the NHS - tho as with Education, they do often appear to be in thrall to the producers (Teachers) rather than consumers (pupils) and inputs (number of nurses/teachers) rather than outputs (health outcomes / educational attainment).
I'd like to more if Labour spoke up for such relatives rather than just saying stupid soundbites such as 'three months to save the NHS'.0 -
@Roger - I guess we should have spotted Ed was in trouble when Dan Hodges did his "Ed is Brilliant" column a week or so ago.....0
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Since you're the only one interested in a story a quarter of a century old - why don't you?RedRag1 said:Did anyone find out how long Red Mick Gove was out on strike for by the way? http://politicalscrapbook.net/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/gove_picket.jpg
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Didn't he ?tim said:
You want cynicism regarding the NHS then imagine how outraged you'd be if Brown had made promises using his son who suffers from Cystic Fibrosis and had then gone on to break them at the first possible opportunity.JosiasJessop said:
You make my point for me. The fury directed at a woman who is trying to get justice for her dead relative at Stafford is quite something, and just because she had the temerity to speak up and show the NHS in a poor light.CarlottaVance said:@JosiasJessop - I think you may be painting Labour with slightly too broad a brush on the NHS - tho as with Education, they do often appear to be in thrall to the producers (Teachers) rather than consumers (pupils) and inputs (number of nurses/teachers) rather than outputs (health outcomes / educational attainment).
I'd like to more if Labour spoke up for such relatives rather than just saying stupid soundbites such as 'three months to save the NHS'.0 -
Moderately encouraging numbers. A 6 per cent lead over a mid-term government implementing unpopular measures isn't exactly stellar.
I still think everything hinges on the economy. If by 2015 voters can see the sunny uplands of increasing real income and greater job security then there is no great incentive to switch to Labour. If the opposite is true (which I increasingly doubt) then we'll face the horrendous prospect of Prime Minister Ed Milliband.
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The Daily Mail has named two out of three names from the "read my lips" meeting - and contrasts the payoff failing NHS bosses got with the treatment of a whistle blower:JosiasJessop said:
I'd like to more if Labour spoke up for such relatives rather than just saying stupid soundbites such as 'three months to save the NHS'.CarlottaVance said:@JosiasJessop - I think you may be painting Labour with slightly too broad a brush on the NHS - tho as with Education, they do often appear to be in thrall to the producers (Teachers) rather than consumers (pupils) and inputs (number of nurses/teachers) rather than outputs (health outcomes / educational attainment).
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2344721/Exposed-bosses-hospital-deaths-cover-Two-women-hid-baby-deaths-evidence.html0 -
Firstly, it is only 1 poll.
Secondly, it is a Yougov poll.
Thirdly, 6% behind isn't that great.
Having said all that it does seem that Labour have strategic difficulties. Having spent 2 years not having any policies they have basically adopted the Coalition policies on spending limits (with a trivial £10bn of capital spending as a supposed difference), education and health.
This was an interesting article that was linked in the overnight thread: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/06/18/labour-is-still-headed-for-trouble-in-next-week’s-spending-review/
It points out the problems that Labour are likely to have next week in respect of the spending review. When it is increasingly part of the consensus that austerity will last through the next Parliament as well hard choices would have to be made. Newsnight last night indicated by the middle of the next Parliament 1/3 of all government spending will be on health. The price of ring fencing for all other spending is massive.
Does Labour have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
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tim said:
@TGOHF
Don't forget the PB Golden Rule
PB always overestimates David Cameron.
It's why the PB Tories got the last election so badly wrong
Cameron gets plenty of criticism on PB.tim said:@TGOHF
Don't forget the PB Golden Rule
PB always overestimates David Cameron.
It's why the PB Tories got the last election so badly wrong
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given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools0 -
David Cameron gets criticised unfairly for a lot of things. He doesn't get criticised for many of the things that he does get wrong.0
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"7 April: In its first week, the CQC is forced to defend Cynthia Bower's appointment as its chief executive. She had been chief executive of the NHS's West Midlands strategic health authority in 2006-08, when concern first emerged about what the Healthcare Commission later called "appalling" care at Stafford hospital, and was criticised for doing too little to investigate. Between 400 and 1,200 patients died due to poor treatment, the commission estimated.
The shadow health secretary, Andrew Lansley, says her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/feb/23/care-quality-commission-problems-timeline
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A single poll and the G8 meeting should have given Cameron a blip. It led the news for a day or so and that's all that most people see. But Labour has a problem with Ed .... he doesn't look like a PM.
Bring back the Badger, gas the badgers.0 -
Indeed - most of it from the right.Sean_F said:tim said:@TGOHF
Don't forget the PB Golden Rule
PB always overestimates David Cameron.
It's why the PB Tories got the last election so badly wrong
Cameron gets plenty of criticism on PB.tim said:@TGOHF
Don't forget the PB Golden Rule
PB always overestimates David Cameron.
It's why the PB Tories got the last election so badly wrong
Commentary from the left rarely rises above "fops" and "chumocracy"....
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@another_richard:
The cryptic remark last night was a gentle dig at your tendency to see/assume the worst in the Tories. Instead of the person on Newsnight being daft, it must all be a conspiracy, surely...
Separately you may have missed it - would recommend Deer Hunting with Jesus for you. I think you'd enjoy it (this is a serious comment).0 -
Not just in education either.Alanbrooke said:
given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
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From the Guardian article:
"As part of a "light-touch" regulatory regime, one of Bower's first acts is to disband the CQC's central NHS investigations team inherited from the Healthcare Commission, despite its track record in exposing scandals such as the one at Stafford. The decision is met with consternation from inside the organisation and the wider NHS. Critics feel it will send the wrong message to hospitals which want to keep failings secret."0 -
That's one to remember.AveryLP said:It is the lack of ties at Enniskillen wot did it.
Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
And now that I see you can make predictions how about your prediction as to when Britain gets a single month of trade surplus.
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I wouldn't have been outraged. Unlike your faux-outrage at Cameron that you constantly trot out to stop having to answer any questions about what happened in the NHS under Labour.tim said:
You want cynicism regarding the NHS then imagine how outraged you'd be if Brown had made promises using his son who suffers from Cystic Fibrosis and had then gone on to break them at the first possible opportunity.JosiasJessop said:
You make my point for me. The fury directed at a woman who is trying to get justice for her dead relative at Stafford is quite something, and just because she had the temerity to speak up and show the NHS in a poor light.CarlottaVance said:@JosiasJessop - I think you may be painting Labour with slightly too broad a brush on the NHS - tho as with Education, they do often appear to be in thrall to the producers (Teachers) rather than consumers (pupils) and inputs (number of nurses/teachers) rather than outputs (health outcomes / educational attainment).
I'd like to more if Labour spoke up for such relatives rather than just saying stupid soundbites such as 'three months to save the NHS'.
"Look! Squirrel!"0 -
I don't see how Miliband hopes to win on the back of former Lib Dem voters (sort of left of centre soft radicals) by copying the government on welfare, spending, education and maybe even Europe as well in time.0
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Polling wise the bottom line is that EdM has failed to seal the deal, just as Cameron did before him.
In 2015 its highly likely that we'll have an election campaign in which neither party has a realistic chance of an outright majority.
In which case all the talk will be about minority governments, possible coalitions, which manifesto commitments are or are not available for negotiation etc.
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The CQC started on April Fool's Day:
2009
1 April: The Care Quality Commission (CQC) is established as the regulator of health and social care in England in a merger of three watchdogs: the Healthcare Commission, the Commission for Social Care Inspection and the Mental Health Act Commission. The merger was the idea of the prime minister, Gordon Brown, who wanted to cut the cost of regulation.
The CQC begins with a smaller budget than the combined funding of its three predecessors and, according to both supporters and critics, too broad a remit.
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Don't Be A Child in Labour Wales
"Numeracy: Pupils struggle with sums in Wales says Estyn.
Pupils in half of Wales' secondary schools and 40% of primary schools have weak numeracy skills, according to the schools watchdog.
Estyn says children struggle with basic sums, such as multiplying, and rely on a calculator. As a result, they are unable to do harder calculations......
The Welsh government said the report would help to raise numeracy standards.(After 13 years in power!!)....
Estyn discovered that some pupils it saw during inspections found it difficult to carry out basic sums, such as fractions, percentages and decimals.
In a report which focused on children in key stage 2 and 3 (ages seven to 14), it also said many could not recall important number facts, such as how to multiply.
It meant young people were unable to apply reasoning to solve more advanced mathematical problems.
It pointed to a number of improvements needed, such as better monitoring of pupils and ensuring that schools have a clear numeracy policy that applies across all classes and departments.
Chief inspector Ann Keane said it was key that children were taught the basic skills so they did not need to rely on calculators....
"We know that many schools have not given as much attention to numeracy as they have done for literacy, but it is vital that schools have clear plans for developing numeracy skills.
"The plans need to address young people's weak numeracy skills so that they can do mental arithmetic, grasp numerical reasoning and don't have to rely on a calculator.
"Basic numeracy is an essential life skill that is needed in most jobs and in managing personal finances.
"But a majority of pupils struggle to understand how numeracy is relevant to their everyday lives and this needs to be tackled."
Estyn also recommended that local authorities or education consortia should support teachers in improving their knowledge, skills and confidence in teaching numeracy skills."
Test yourself with these sample numeracy questions
Year 3 (age 7-8): Double 14p =
Year 4 (age 8-9): 96 tins are divided equally into 6 boxes. How many tins in each box?
Year 5 (age 9-10): Nine pens cost £3.15. How much do three pens cost?
Year 6 (age 10-11): 2,700 divided by 30 =
Year 7 (age 11-12): 2% of £1,700 =
Year 8 (age 12-13): Round 256.34505 to two decimal places
Year 9 (age 13-14): Work out 13.8 × 0.2 =
Source: Learning Wales Sample Numeracy Material.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-22977378
I have an early Victorian work-book of a child aged nine who was doing sums far harder than these. It would appear that Wales has regressed since then - forget about competing globally.0 -
Owen Paterson making a very robust case for GM on Today - even indulging in the shroud waving of GM opponents.0
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I think they must have meant 1/3 of all departmental spending as opposed to total government spending. That would be about right.tim said:DavidL said:Firstly, it is only 1 poll.
Secondly, it is a Yougov poll.
Thirdly, 6% behind isn't that great.
Having said all that it does seem that Labour have strategic difficulties. Having spent 2 years not having any policies they have basically adopted the Coalition policies on spending limits (with a trivial £10bn of capital spending as a supposed difference), education and health.
This was an interesting article that was linked in the overnight thread: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/06/18/labour-is-still-headed-for-trouble-in-next-week’s-spending-review/
It points out the problems that Labour are likely to have next week in respect of the spending review. When it is increasingly part of the consensus that austerity will last through the next Parliament as well hard choices would have to be made. Newsnight last night indicated by the middle of the next Parliament 1/3 of all government spending will be on health. The price of ring fencing for all other spending is massive.
Does Labour have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
" 1/3 of all government spending will be on health"
Don't be absurd.
And the pressure on the NHS comes largely from Camerons decision to put council run services outside the ring fence and block all DGH closures.
He broke his sensible promise on a reorganisation and kept the idiotic promise to fight "tooth and nail" for every DGH.
Now read the Darzi report regarding reconfiguring health services, and see what was happening in London and the savings the Tories threw out of the window due to Lansley's ideological opposition to polyclinics and Camerons DGH promise.
Health is currently 18% of total government spending.
The pressure on health comes because although this government has committed itself to increasing health spending in real terms (by a tiny amount) health cost inflation is higher than in the economy as a whole as a result of the cost of new treatments, equipment, obselesence of older equipment and, at least historically pay. So even maintaining spending means that there is increasing pressure over time.
Hopefully the reorganisation (which seems to be proceeding remarkably quietly) will reduce admin costs freeing resources for this.
I agree with you about DGHs although principally on the grounds of quality of care rather than cost savings.
I repeat my question. What does Labour have to say about all this?0 -
Agreed, long overdue. I suspect there would, initially at least, have to be a fairly rigourous labelling regime but so long as people know what they're getting I struggle to see the arguments against it.tim said:Good for the Govt on GM crops, long needed u turn hopefully
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Pretty similar to my perspective, though unleashing the hyenas of the private sector on the wounded NHS as all three parties have done and will do again will not be pleasant.JosiasJessop said:
Having seen the reaction of Labour supporters on the NHS on here and elsewhere, I have shifted my position on the NHS. The NHS as an organisation may or may not be safe in Conservative hands, but patients aren't safe in Labour's hands.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Burnham is preparing the ground for Labour's next U-turn:
"Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham has told Pulse that the NHS is already ‘lost’ and any further privatisation would make it ‘irretrievable’."
‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK0
Labour seems more interested in the NHS as an organisation - or an ideal - than they are in the welfare of patients. Yesterday's report into the CQC shows this very well. An organisation set up by Labour to regulate healthcare and social services, and a year later it is covering up wrongdoings.
Add to this the payments to whistle-blowers.
Add to this the attacks on relatives trying to get justice in Stafford and elsewhere.
Putting all of this together, it becomes obvious that some see the NHS as an ideal worthy of protection, rather than an organisation dedicated to helping patients.
And Labour is complicit in this mindset.
tim: I look forward to Labours "vote Labour to close your local hospital" campaign. Local DGHs are popular even when they are not very good.
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Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.another_richard said:
Not just in education either.Alanbrooke said:
given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx0 -
This is not a story that will shift many votes but it is critically important to the economy: http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/banksandfinance/10131483/Barclays-Co-op-Nationwide-RBS-and-Lloyds-responsible-for-higher-than-expected-capital-shortfall-of-27.1bn.html
Our banking sector is still seriously undercapitalised and has made grossly inadequate provision for bad debts. RBS, as usual, is in the most serious condition requiring £13bn of new capital, £10bn of which is allegedly in hand by planned disposals.
This stress testing is urgent. If the bubble starts to burst in China, as it is threatening to, we could have a new banking crisis on our hands relatively quickly. Our banks are simply not strong enough to withstand that at the moment.
In the meantime it means we will have more of what we have seen over the last 3 or 4 years with banks very cautious about lending, deleveraging and reducing their balance sheets and a private sector struggling to get credit for investment. It has been and remains probably the biggest single constraint on growth.0 -
There is an segment of Labour supporters who are NHS cultists.JosiasJessop said:
Having seen the reaction of Labour supporters on the NHS on here and elsewhere, I have shifted my position on the NHS. The NHS as an organisation may or may not be safe in Conservative hands, but patients aren't safe in Labour's hands.CarlottaVance said:Looks like Burnham is preparing the ground for Labour's next U-turn:
"Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham has told Pulse that the NHS is already ‘lost’ and any further privatisation would make it ‘irretrievable’."
‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK0
Labour seems more interested in the NHS as an organisation - or an ideal - than they are in the welfare of patients. Yesterday's report into the CQC shows this very well. An organisation set up by Labour to regulate healthcare and social services, and a year later it is covering up wrongdoings.
Add to this the payments to whistle-blowers.
Add to this the attacks on relatives trying to get justice in Stafford and elsewhere.
Putting all of this together, it becomes obvious that some see the NHS as an ideal worthy of protection, rather than an organisation dedicated to helping patients.
And Labour is complicit in this mindset.
Equally there is a segment of Conservative supporters who are City cultists.
Each group has elevated its cult to the mentality of a religion and demands that the focus of the nation should be to support its god.
Any criticism of these gods is regarded as heresey and the 'unbelievers' viewed as worthless.
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Vincent Kane - It's the Economy, Stupid
On Tuesday evening on BBC1 Wales at 22.35 on Week In, Week Out, "Legendary broadcaster Vincent Kane returned to Wales to deliver his verdict on the Welsh economy and asks - is Wales dying a slow death while the politicians look on?"
He concluded that unless the Welsh Government act very quickly on education and the economy, it will quickly become an economic backwater with a dominant poverty-stricken public sector.
He said that if nothing is done quickly, then Cromwell's famous words should be used to the Welsh Assembly, "YOU HAVE BEEN SAT TOO LONG HERE FOR ANY GOOD YOU HAVE BEEN DOING. DEPART, I SAY, AND LET US HAVE DONE WITH YOU. IN THE NAME OF GOD, GO!"
This was a fair but hard-hitting review with a pathetic response by a Welsh Assembly Minister.
It is worth watching and available on BBC iplayer at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b02xgkfw0 -
Good morning. Sad news of the death of actor James Gandolfini. Mind you,he always looked a lot older than his years.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-229804140 -
Are there many Cameron doubters among the Tories? Cameron haters seems a more accurate description. I doubt a run of decent polls will change their minds. It may shut them up for a while, but they'll be looking for any excuse to start mouthing off again.0
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@MalcolmG David Cameron appears to be a good negotiator. He has comprehensively outwitted the Lib Dems in government at almost every stage. He has a good track record internationally in identifying Britain's interests and then securing the essential parts of them.
He called Libya right.
He has carried out the role of leading Britain admirably, looking and sounding the part.
He does not have a majority and has managed the realities of coalition government well. His party don't seem half as alive to this as he is.
Fundamentally, he is a tactician rather than a strategist. He's a very good tactician, but the strategy has to come first.
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Ha, ha!CarlottaVance said:Looks like Burnham is preparing the ground for Labour's next U-turn:
...‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK0
I bet they are cursing Gormless and his 'unbreakable' Carrier-contract! Yet another "not-thought-through" Labour moment....0 -
I don't follow the BoT stats day to day, but surely that is going to be a work of years to rebuild the manufacturing base.another_richard said:
That's one to remember.AveryLP said:It is the lack of ties at Enniskillen wot did it.
Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
And now that I see you can make predictions how about your prediction as to when Britain gets a single month of trade surplus.
Additionally, I'm not sure that BoT is the most important stats - British Invisibles are a very important income stream as well and BoT excludes them (I believe)0 -
I quite like Cameron. Being PM in a coalition can't be easy and fair play to him and Clegg, they have held it together well. Hardly any underhand spinning or smearing is heard in the press - disagreements are largely kept indoors, and that's a sign of mature people in charge. Only Lord Oakeshott has made a dick of himself.SouthamObserver said:Are there many Cameron doubters among the Tories? Cameron haters seems a more accurate description. I doubt a run of decent polls will change their minds. It may shut them up for a while, but they'll be looking for any excuse to start mouthing off again.
A lot of Cameron haters want some perfect right-wing PM that doesn't exist. Someone who doesn't compromise, smashes the left out of the park, tells the EU to p*ss off, sends immigrants back home, lowers the tax rate etc etc. It's unrealistic really, not to mention unelectable.
As much as I enjoy Farage's gusto I couldn't ever imagine him representing the UK at the G8. When all the intransigent Cameron haters vote for Farage at the next GE they'll effectively be voting for him to become PM, inadvertently putting in Ed Miliband as PM instead.0 -
Good summation.antifrank said:@MalcolmG David Cameron appears to be a good negotiator. He has comprehensively outwitted the Lib Dems in government at almost every stage. He has a good track record internationally in identifying Britain's interests and then securing the essential parts of them.
He called Libya right.
He has carried out the role of leading Britain admirably, looking and sounding the part.
He does not have a majority and has managed the realities of coalition government well. His party don't seem half as alive to this as he is.
Fundamentally, he is a tactician rather than a strategist. He's a very good tactician, but the strategy has to come first.
The only criticism is that he is a bit blancmange-like. Critically, he must establish if this is because he is in a coalition so daren't be more assertive, or whether that's just him.
Like many Cons supporters I very much hope it is the former although we've only seen the latter so far.
He's still the best of the bunch, that said.0 -
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.CarlottaVance said:Owen Paterson making a very robust case for GM on Today - even indulging in the shroud waving of GM opponents.
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Good morning, everyone.
F1: Mercedes and Pirelli face the F1 Inquisition today. Depending how things go some think that Mercedes could leave the sport or Pirelli sue the FIA:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22974180
Personally, I think Mercedes will not leave whatever happens. You don't hire Hamilton, and Lowe, and Wolff and then decide to leave a year later. However, they may decide to throw Brawn overboard, which is something that has been rumoured since before the tyre issue arose.
Personally, I think that's insane. Brawn's one of the best leaders in F1.
In unrelated news, the Xbox One has become renamed the Xbox One80 after they u-turned on features that, a few days ago, were absolutely integral to the system:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22980973
The used games nonsense and 24 hour online check-in have been axed, probably because at E3 Sony treated Microsoft like Star Trek treats unnamed extras in red uniforms. However, the always-on camera and $100 extra cost remain.
I suspect lots of Xbox fans who were reluctant boycotters will gladly go back, but Microsoft won't win Playstation fans over, and I'd be surprised if this were enough for the neutrals to jump their way.0 -
The "just one poll" Comical Ali's may not want to look at this graph
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
"There is no downward trend on the red line "0 -
LOL adding salmon DNA to wheat is perfectly natural!Charles said:
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.CarlottaVance said:Owen Paterson making a very robust case for GM on Today - even indulging in the shroud waving of GM opponents.
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Yes and no. Take maize which has had a genome from a bacterium put into it - that would be hard to occur naturally.Charles said:
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.CarlottaVance said:Owen Paterson making a very robust case for GM on Today - even indulging in the shroud waving of GM opponents.
Whilst I dismiss most of the fears of the anti-GM brigade, it is an area where caution is advisable. That does not mean not use them: just that we need to thoroughly work out any consequences of their use.
GM crops should be used to help people out of starvation, not as a cash-cow for the food companies.
Besides, I believe I am right in saying that much of the problem with food is not one of production, but of distribution.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/10/18/163034053/top-five-myths-of-genetically-modified-seeds-busted0 -
How will HS2 benefit the regions? There are more to the regions than afew big cities.JosiasJessop said:
Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.another_richard said:
Not just in education either.Alanbrooke said:
given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
In 20 years time you might be able to get from Leeds and Manchester to London a bit quicker.
Or you might if you're rich or have an expense account.
If you want to benefit transport outside London then spend the money on transport outside London not on a new railway to London.
You could go to every town and county in the country and find ways in which transport could be improved now if the money being wasted on HS2 was available.
And HS2 is being used as an excuse to build Crossrail 2.
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We must stop these heretic alchemists rotating crops around the fields year on year to increase the yield with their blacke magjyk !!Blue_rog said:
LOL adding salmon DNA to wheat is perfectly natural!Charles said:
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.CarlottaVance said:Owen Paterson making a very robust case for GM on Today - even indulging in the shroud waving of GM opponents.
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indeed m'boy in the standard Japanese school (which can be somewhat victorian (Meiji-esque, i suppose) does much more challenging stuff than this. Although it is to be hoped this is a minimum standard, rather than an averageFinancier said:
I have an early Victorian work-book of a child aged nine who was doing sums far harder than these. It would appear that Wales has regressed since then - forget about competing globally.0 -
On maths, at secondary school, in the sixth form, we had a Chinese student. He revealed that surds (which we were then covering) were fairly easy, because he learnt them in primary school.0
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Oops,JosiasJessop said:Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
Do you travel on The Tube? It is Nineteenth-Century architecture for a Twenty-First Century, global city. The days of underfed, polite Londoners are long gone (as my return breaks to my home-city remind me).
London needs better infrastructure to accomodate all the gawping Africans and the obese in-breds that trundle along her transport arteries. And England needs London to work....
D-.0 -
It might have been a good idea then if Cameron and Osborne had pointed out the manufacturing base needed rebuilding instead of buying into Browns' 'economic miracle'.Charles said:
I don't follow the BoT stats day to day, but surely that is going to be a work of years to rebuild the manufacturing base.another_richard said:
That's one to remember.AveryLP said:It is the lack of ties at Enniskillen wot did it.
Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
And now that I see you can make predictions how about your prediction as to when Britain gets a single month of trade surplus.
Additionally, I'm not sure that BoT is the most important stats - British Invisibles are a very important income stream as well and BoT excludes them (I believe)
The trade balance includes services as well as goods and has been in continuous deficit since early 1998.
IIRC it doesn't include tourism - which is another thing which Britain runs a huge and continuous deficit in.
Britain's underlying problem isn't that we produce too little its that we consume too much.
And its that underlying problem which Cameron and Osborne have shown no interest in tackling - the contrary in fact with their obsession abour restarting household borrowing.
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I recently came across this description of a blancmange from an eastern perspective. it made me chuckle.TOPPING said:
The only criticism is that he is a bit blancmange-like.
"Jelly looks like a jewel, but its trembling and shaking deprive it of the solidity of a yokan; while that intricately shaped heap of sugar and milk which they call blancmange is an absurdity which is beyond the power of words to describe"
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"How will HS2 benefit the regions? There are more to the regions than afew big cities."another_richard said:
How will HS2 benefit the regions? There are more to the regions than afew big cities.JosiasJessop said:
Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.another_richard said:
Not just in education either.Alanbrooke said:
given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
In 20 years time you might be able to get from Leeds and Manchester to London a bit quicker.
Or you might if you're rich or have an expense account.
If you want to benefit transport outside London then spend the money on transport outside London not on a new railway to London.
You could go to every town and county in the country and find ways in which transport could be improved now if the money being wasted on HS2 was available.
And HS2 is being used as an excuse to build Crossrail 2.
In the following ways:
1) It will speed up the hub-to-hub travel between Leeds and Manchester and Birmingham, as well as London.
2) It will increase paths and reduce congestion on existing lines.
Of these, point 2) is the most important. Just ask residents of areas of Stoke who had their local stations closed during the West Coast Main Line upgrade farce just to help Branson run his trains a little faster.
And the WCML upgrade is a big argument against the practicality of massively upgrading existing lines. £8-10 billion, massively more than planned, late, and for far less functionality. Another example of Jessop's first rule of engineering...
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The whole point about HS2 is to expand capacity not journey times. It's no good just tweaking the existing system. If we don't build a new railway you won't have the capacity for regions such as the NorthWest in a couple of decades.another_richard said:
How will HS2 benefit the regions? There are more to the regions than afew big cities.JosiasJessop said:
Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.another_richard said:
Not just in education either.Alanbrooke said:
given the metropolitan areas have had gold shoved down their throats for years you'd expect something. This has been at the expense of English shire counties which have been underfunded for years.tim said:Don't be a poor child in a Tory run area
"In the last 20 to 30 years, standards in schools in major cities such as London, Birmingham, Greater Manchester, Liverpool and Leicester have been transformed, and problems of under-achievement have shifted to deprived coastal towns and rural areas of the country, especially in the East and South East of England, Sir Michael will argue."
http://news.sky.com/story/1105936/poor-children-are-being-failed-by-schools
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
In 20 years time you might be able to get from Leeds and Manchester to London a bit quicker.
Or you might if you're rich or have an expense account.
If you want to benefit transport outside London then spend the money on transport outside London not on a new railway to London.
You could go to every town and county in the country and find ways in which transport could be improved now if the money being wasted on HS2 was available.
And HS2 is being used as an excuse to build Crossrail 2.
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It wouldn't surprise me.Morris_Dancer said:On maths, at secondary school, in the sixth form, we had a Chinese student. He revealed that surds (which we were then covering) were fairly easy, because he learnt them in primary school.
Yet, my three year old has been in nursery this year learning cursive writing! And I didn't start that until 2nd year of Junior school. Apparently it helps massively with reading because of the spacing.
I'd be hard pushed to remember the correct shapes for all cursive letters.
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Hard to occur, but not impossible, The commonest way to make a GM plant is to use Agrobacterium- a bacterium which transfers its own genes into plant cells.JosiasJessop said:
Yes and no. Take maize which has had a genome from a bacterium put into it - that would be hard to occur naturally.
Crops do have to constantly be bred to withstand new challenges- new pathogens etc (look at ash dieback, and imagine if it happened to wheat)JosiasJessop said:
Whilst I dismiss most of the fears of the anti-GM brigade, it is an area where caution is advisable. That does not mean not use them: just that we need to thoroughly work out any consequences of their use.
GM crops should be used to help people out of starvation, not as a cash-cow for the food companies.
Besides, I believe I am right in saying that much of the problem with food is not one of production, but of distribution.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/10/18/163034053/top-five-myths-of-genetically-modified-seeds-busted
And climate is probably becoming more unstable, so more challenges there.
But as you say, distribution and waste is key.
But probably the most effective way to reduce starvation is to get girls into education worldwide, and stabilize the population...0 -
Fair comment. Even if he could turn water into wine they'd complain it wasn't single Malt!SouthamObserver said:Are there many Cameron doubters among the Tories? Cameron haters seems a more accurate description. I doubt a run of decent polls will change their minds. It may shut them up for a while, but they'll be looking for any excuse to start mouthing off again.
0 -
The key to the next election will be how both the UKIP and 'anti' lib dem votes unwind and how much they unwind. UKIP seem to be falling back somewhat now they aren't front page news, but could come back at the euro elections.
Still a long long road to 2015, and anything could happen.0 -
Not really. There are many cases where genes have naturally moved from symbiotic bacteria to the main cell's chromosomes. In some cases, this has reached the point where the symbiote has no genes left, reducing it to a mere organelle.JosiasJessop said:
Yes and no. Take maize which has had a genome from a bacterium put into it - that would be hard to occur naturally.Charles said:
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.
Plant have also naturally acquired genes from animals, probably transferred by bacteria. Legumes use a hemoglobin variant in their root nodules, which is clearly derived from vertebrate hemoglobin.
Of course, just because it happens naturally doesn't mean it's safe, but the claim that inter-species gene transfer never happens in nature is plain false.0 -
More like sweet sherry for the UKIPers...CarlottaVance said:
Fair comment. Even if he could turn water into wine they'd complain it wasn't single Malt!SouthamObserver said:Are there many Cameron doubters among the Tories? Cameron haters seems a more accurate description. I doubt a run of decent polls will change their minds. It may shut them up for a while, but they'll be looking for any excuse to start mouthing off again.
0 -
Ed could become non-crap ?Slackbladder said:.
Still a long long road to 2015, and anything could happen.
0 -
Well.... steady on now.. 'almost anything' could happen maybe.TGOHF said:
Ed could become non-crap ?Slackbladder said:.
Still a long long road to 2015, and anything could happen.
Some things are just universal.0 -
When you say anything could happen, I assume you mean anything except a Conservative majority. Because it doesn't look like they'll be able to get an 11% lead over Labour in 99 weeks time...Slackbladder said:The key to the next election will be how both the UKIP and 'anti' lib dem votes unwind and how much they unwind. UKIP seem to be falling back somewhat now they aren't front page news, but could come back at the euro elections.
Still a long long road to 2015, and anything could happen.0 -
Mr. Sheffield, that's a very interesting post.0
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May UK retail sales have blown away estimates: up 2.1% against a 0.8% forecast. Economic statistics keep getting better. I would note that this is not just a UK phenomenon, although we're doing better than most.0
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Laura Kuenssberg @ITVLauraK 1m
Healthy retail sales - up 1.9 pc in May
Labour plank of 'the economies crap' seems to be getting flimsier...0 -
FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
0 -
I travel on the tube occasionally, although I try to avoid peak times. I used to live in London, and used it extensively.FluffyThoughts said:
Oops,JosiasJessop said:Oh lordy. HS2 will benefit the regions. Which is dramatically unlike the £16 billion Crossrail, which will just benefit London and the Home Counties.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
Do you travel on The Tube? It is Nineteenth-Century architecture for a Twenty-First Century, global city. The days of underfed, polite Londoners are long gone (as my return breaks to my home-city remind me).
London needs better infrastructure to accomodate all the gawping Africans and the obese in-breds that trundle along her transport arteries. And England needs London to work....
D-.
Crossrail was talked about since 1948, and was consistently put off because it made little sense from a cost-benefit POV. Indeed, it only really makes sense in conjunction with a Thames Estuary airport.
But my main point is the way the massive cost of Crossrail has gone with barely a murmur, yet HS2 to Birmingham (within a billion of the price) is suddenly a waste of money, despite much bigger advantages.
Although a large reason of the lack of angst over Crossrail is people realising it will increase the value of houses that are near the stations.
And calling the tube a nineteenth-century architecture is rather ignoring the advances that have been made since then.
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US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
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:strawman:JosiasJessop said:Crossrail was talked about since 1948....
How long did it take to go from conception to implementation regarding the Chunnel...?
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Aye, I know that, which is why I said 'hard to occur naturally', not impossible.Robert_Of_Sheffield said:
Not really. There are many cases where genes have naturally moved from symbiotic bacteria to the main cell's chromosomes. In some cases, this has reached the point where the symbiote has no genes left, reducing it to a mere organelle.JosiasJessop said:
Yes and no. Take maize which has had a genome from a bacterium put into it - that would be hard to occur naturally.Charles said:
GM is just the application of scientific techniques to what farmers have been doing for thousands of years.
Plant have also naturally acquired genes from animals, probably transferred by bacteria. Legumes use a hemoglobin variant in their root nodules, which is clearly derived from vertebrate hemoglobin.
Of course, just because it happens naturally doesn't mean it's safe, but the claim that inter-species gene transfer never happens in nature is plain false.0 -
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.redcliffe62 said:
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
0 -
Ignore the current exchange-rate and look at ten-year gilt yields. Best way to "guess" long-term currency movements methinks.TGOHF said:Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.
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TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.TGOHF said:
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.redcliffe62 said:
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.0 -
What would a typical Labour voter think?DavidL said:Firstly, it is only 1 poll.
Secondly, it is a Yougov poll.
Thirdly, 6% behind isn't that great.
Having said all that it does seem that Labour have strategic difficulties. Having spent 2 years not having any policies they have basically adopted the Coalition policies on spending limits (with a trivial £10bn of capital spending as a supposed difference), education and health.
This was an interesting article that was linked in the overnight thread: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/06/18/labour-is-still-headed-for-trouble-in-next-week’s-spending-review/
It points out the problems that Labour are likely to have next week in respect of the spending review. When it is increasingly part of the consensus that austerity will last through the next Parliament as well hard choices would have to be made. Newsnight last night indicated by the middle of the next Parliament 1/3 of all government spending will be on health. The price of ring fencing for all other spending is massive.
Does Labour have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
You realised they’d run the country into the ground. You wouldn’t dream of voting Cons, so you switched to LD. Now what?
Turns out the LDs are fighting their corner, winning a bit, losing a bit, restraining the evil Tories, erring on the side of saving the country rather than out-Labouring Labour and, critically, they’re in government. Hurrah. Let’s give them a B-.
But what about a homecoming? And hold on – here’s Twigg agreeing with Gove, Balls agreeing with Jeffrey, and you still think that EdM is manifestly unfit for office. So what do you get from going back to Labour? Nicer people? Of course – but what if there’s no country left to be nice in? Cons? You’d still rather stick pins in your eyes. What about LDs? That might keep this coalition going and you know what? Through gritted teeth you realise they’re not doing a bad job at what needs to be done (“tough decisions” which you don’t think Lab can make).
And I agree with you.
And therefore I think the LD vote will be stickier than some (on here) are forecasting.
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Sounds like the Eurozone crisis is over ? No mention of Germany ?rcs1000 said:
TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.TGOHF said:
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.redcliffe62 said:
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
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Well, I wouldn't go as far as to say 'over'. Greece is going to default again; Cyrpus still has capital controls and the economy continues to be in free fall.TGOHF said:
Sounds like the Eurozone crisis is over ? No mention of Germany ?rcs1000 said:
TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.TGOHF said:
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.redcliffe62 said:
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
However, it's clear that Ireland and Spain have dragged themselves back from the brink. Portugal is also on the mend. And the jury is still out on Italy, where the government has been very slow to pass structural reforms.
Right now, I worry (as an investor) far more about Australia and Canada, which are resource dependent economies with housing bubbles. Household debt in Australia is something like 250% of GDP (as compared to a fifth of that level in Germany, France and Italy). Any slowdown there could look really ugly.
And Japan is going to be an interesting one.0 -
I would expect Spains unemployment to fall during the summer, given its tourism and agriculture...rcs1000 said:
TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.TGOHF said:
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.redcliffe62 said:
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $.TGOHF said:FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.0
