But Prof Kay suggested voters should only back independence if support the principle of Scotland being a separate country, in the same way as the American or Irish public did previously
Welcome aboard the good ship "FT" as she [sic] tries to navigate the path to Engerlisch Scots independence....
(I joke that Spain is an 'Arab Spring' play. Essentially, the revolutions in North Africa, and the riots in Turkey and Greece are sending Northern European tourists to Southern Spain and Portugal. It's likely to be a best ever year for tourism there. Combine that with a recovery in industrial Northern Spain, and a beginning to the sorting out of the Spanish property building boom, and you have the makings of an extraordinary opportunty.)
FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $. If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.
TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.
I would expect Spains unemployment to fall during the summer, given its tourism and agriculture...
This made me laugh: a new Spanish submarine has been made 70 tons overweight. The excess is so large that there are fears that if it submerges, it may not be able to surface again.
Treat the story - and especially the cause - with a pinch of salt. But it does look as though they have significant problems, and they've signed a contract with the US's Electric Boat to help fix it. Just as we did after design problems with the Astute class.
(I joke that Spain is an 'Arab Spring' play. Essentially, the revolutions in North Africa, and the riots in Turkey and Greece are sending Northern European tourists to Southern Spain and Portugal. It's likely to be a best ever year for tourism there. Combine that with a recovery in industrial Northern Spain, and a beginning to the sorting out of the Spanish property building boom, and you have the makings of an extraordinary opportunty.)
Anecdotally I have a mate with rental properties in Spain - its his worst year for 5 years - he's certainly not feeling the good times rolling back in.
(I joke that Spain is an 'Arab Spring' play. Essentially, the revolutions in North Africa, and the riots in Turkey and Greece are sending Northern European tourists to Southern Spain and Portugal. It's likely to be a best ever year for tourism there. Combine that with a recovery in industrial Northern Spain, and a beginning to the sorting out of the Spanish property building boom, and you have the makings of an extraordinary opportunty.)
Anecdotally I have a mate with rental properties in Spain - its his worst year for 5 years - he's certainly not feeling the good times rolling back in.
Where in Southern Spain? I was in Marbella at the Marriott vacation club three weeks ago, and they were booked up through the summer for the first time in five years.
(I joke that Spain is an 'Arab Spring' play. Essentially, the revolutions in North Africa, and the riots in Turkey and Greece are sending Northern European tourists to Southern Spain and Portugal. It's likely to be a best ever year for tourism there. Combine that with a recovery in industrial Northern Spain, and a beginning to the sorting out of the Spanish property building boom, and you have the makings of an extraordinary opportunty.)
Anecdotally I have a mate with rental properties in Spain - its his worst year for 5 years - he's certainly not feeling the good times rolling back in.
I wonder if he's losing out from the sudden uptick in Southern Spain property sales? The Spanish banks have been forcing the construction companies to offload inventory, even if its at substantial losses. This means (a) loans are effectively being shifted from Banco Popular to Deutsche Bank, and (b) there are fewer empty, new flats - essentially, the supply of rental property has increased.
This made me laugh: a new Spanish submarine has been made 70 tons overweight. The excess is so large that there are fears that if it submerges, it may not be able to surface again.
(I joke that Spain is an 'Arab Spring' play. Essentially, the revolutions in North Africa, and the riots in Turkey and Greece are sending Northern European tourists to Southern Spain and Portugal. It's likely to be a best ever year for tourism there. Combine that with a recovery in industrial Northern Spain, and a beginning to the sorting out of the Spanish property building boom, and you have the makings of an extraordinary opportunty.)
Anecdotally I have a mate with rental properties in Spain - its his worst year for 5 years - he's certainly not feeling the good times rolling back in.
Where in Southern Spain? I was in Marbella at the Marriott vacation club three weeks ago, and they were booked up through the summer for the first time in five years.
One of Red Micks babies is in trouble "Inspectors were severe on the primary school's leadership, saying its governors failed to grasp the school's "serious shortcomings", while school leaders "believe the school is far better than it is".
The inspection team gave the school the lowest grade, of "inadequate", in three of four categories, for pupil achievement, quality of teaching, leadership and management. "Too many pupils are in danger of leaving the school without being able to read and write properly," inspectors concluded. "Unless this is put right quickly, pupils are unlikely to flourish in their secondary schools and future lives."
In other news, George Osborne is considering splitting RBS. Under the new proposals, a bad bank would be spun out, leaving two entities: Bad Bank RBS and Even Worse Bank RBS.
In other news, George Osborne is considering splitting RBS. Under the new proposals, a bad bank would be spun out, leaving two entities: Bad Bank RBS and Even Worse Bank RBS.
The bad bank will retain the RBS name The good bank will be RBE
Cameron's performance has been reasonable. He's handled the coalition well---in particular, Nick Clegg. His charm and likeability has been effective.
He's surrounded himself, at minister level, competently enough. His choices at The Home Office, Foreign Office, Education, CoE have not been too shabby.
On a personal level, it appears as though he has been too narrow in his selection of close associates.
Cameron has done worst with the EU and UKIP. He has not been honest, and has looked thin-skinned, frustrated and quite without empathy towards UKIP members and voters.
The bad bank will retain the RBS name The good bank will be RBE
Perhaps the whole shebang could be renamed Newco Royal Bank and be given a few years to regain its confidence amongst the tiddlers of the banking world?
2010 Lib Dem voters who have switched to Labour now probably never were going to vote CON anyway. They are a bunch of lefty commie pinkos who basically couldn't stomach voting for Brown but have an overriding hatred of the Tories anyway.
Strategically better to try and keep them Lib Dem voters. But the LD voter in the CON-LAB marginal is going to go the way of the dodo. Sadly, another net gain for the reds.
@rcs1000 Doubt it will happen - it would be a multiyear project, because it involves a lack of faith in the bank at the moment (also it may require a full nationalisation, I think). Ploughing more money in isn't politically palatable nor is scaring the markets ahead of Lloyds' sale.
"Almost 900,000 people on the Government's flagship Work Programme have yet to find a job, according to new figures.The Employment Related Services Association (ERSA), which represents the programme's providers, found only 327,000 out of 1.2m on the scheme had found work.The ERSA also warned that they do not have enough resources to deal with the complex employment needs of sick and disabled people on the programme."....so when will they end up back on the unemployment figures or do they just keep sending them on programmes knowing there is very little chance of a job at the end of it?
Something amazing in Bristol, Labour, Conservatives and Lib Dems working together and voting together on an amendment calling for a postponement of Residents' Parking Zones. However, this vote may just be symbolic, and the Councillors may not be able to deter George Ferguson rolling it out.
An unholy alliance has buried the hatchet in the Mayor - but for all sorts of different reasons.
The bad bank will retain the RBS name The good bank will be RBE
Perhaps the whole shebang could be renamed Newco Royal Bank and be given a few years to regain its confidence amongst the tiddlers of the banking world?
"Osborne was so keen to cut welfare rather than departmental spending that he offered to reopen discussions about further taxes on the wealthy. He reasoned that if the Liberal Democrats could show that the rich were paying yet more in tax, they might be more open to further benefit cuts. But Clegg simply wasn’t interested."
FTSE down 2% on day already - must be the yougov poll or the mansion house speech
US banking statement and Chinese growth figures at less than 8%, which in Chinese terms equates to a recession. Oz dollar going down toilet in comparison, down 12% in 6 weeks. Down 10% against pound too. From 68p to 60.5 p to $. If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
Question for gurus - as the EU is going down the toilet and the Uk seems to be at least on a modest recovery why is the £ so static against the € ? Been stuck at 1.16-1.18 since January.
TGOFH: you're reading of economic statistics is inaccurate: China is weakening, while the US and much of Europe is improving. Take Spain, the latest industrial production statistics showed 7.1% year-over-year growth; unemployment has fallen by 150,000 in the last two months; and it now runs both a trade surplus and a current account surplus. Certainly, France is weakening, and Greece is still a basketcase - but, by and large, the European statistics in the last quarter have been much more positive than negative.
I would expect Spains unemployment to fall during the summer, given its tourism and agriculture...
The unemployment numbers are seasonally adjusted.
We have had this discussion before.
Here is a breakdown and analysis of the unemployment falls mainly focussed on Andalusia. There is also a compelling graph of year on year trends.
There does appear to be a slight improvement in the growth rates of unemployment but the figures are still a long way from indicating a recovery.
Summary:
The new contracts are mainly seasonal contracts, in other words in the Autumn these people will return to be on the unemployed statistics. It’s quite clear that no quality jobs are being created, but above all seasonal work in tourism & agriculture has slightly changed the situation.
As for the balance of payments returning to surplus, Spain seem to have adopted an 'another richard' solution: balancing through a massive fall in imports rather than growth in exports.
@jameschappers BREAKING CQC will publish names of those accused of baby deaths cover up later today
The Mail has already published two of them, of one of whom, when appointed in 2009, Lansley said:
"her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
I think the difference between you and I is that I am looking at the improvement in Spain, and you are - quite correctly - thinking Spain, 25% unemployment, that's pretty sh1t.
Here is a list of the indicators that have 'gone positive' in the last three months in Spain.
1. Adecco back in April reported that Spanish temporary worker demand had gone positive in March. (Temping agencies, like Adecco, are the single best forward indicator of improvements. I'll let you know when and if they go positive in Greece.)
2. Retail sales have shown month-on-month improvements in three of the last four months. These aren't at UK levels of growth, but this comes after three years of shrinking sales.
3. Spanish household debt-to-GDP has now come down almost 15% from its peak (it's around 85%, from 100%)
4. The Spanish current account has turned positive, for the first time since the 1990s.
5. Spanish industrial production rose 7.3% year-over-year in April (the last date we have numbers for).
8. Spanish unemployment fell by 48,000 people in April and 98,000 in May.
Now, don't get me wrong, Spain is still very much in the doldrums. Any country with 50% youth unemployment is in a pretty bad way. But almost every economic indicator has started pointing upwards in the last three months. And the riots in Turkey, and the continued problems in Egypt are making Spain look an increasingly attractive holiday destination, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue over the summer.
@jameschappers BREAKING CQC will publish names of those accused of baby deaths cover up later today
The Mail has already published two of them, of one of whom, when appointed in 2009, Lansley said:
"her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
Nothing to see.....move along.....
Good - the Info Commissioner said this morning using the Data Protection Act to hide the names was wrong.
@politicshome The Care Quality Commission will publish the names of those accused of a cover-up over the deaths of infants later today.
And about time too! I hope this is the start of getting rid of the corrupt, mendacious and unprofessional top people and others at the NHS. However I don't hold out much hope of this happening.
@jameschappers BREAKING CQC will publish names of those accused of baby deaths cover up later today
The Mail has already published two of them, of one of whom, when appointed in 2009, Lansley said:
"her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
Nothing to see.....move along.....
Good - the Info Commissioner said this morning using the Data Protection Act to hide the names was wrong.
The Guardian actually beat the Mail in dropping very heavy hints:
"Since the names have been redacted we cannot be sure who uttered the words: "Are you kidding me? This can never be in a public domain nor subject to FoI [Freedom of Information request]". Or who in the organisation realised that events in Cumbria sounded "just like Mid Staffs to me", a reference to a hospital trust that appeared to record hundreds of excess deaths and where patients suffered appalling care.
In evidence to the Francis inquiry, there had been claims that Bower "did not wish to criticise organisations" she had previously led. She was formerly chief executive of the NHS West Midlands' strategic health authority, where she was responsible for supervising the performance of Stafford hospital."
so when will they end up back on the unemployment figures or do they just keep sending them on programmes knowing there is very little chance of a job at the end of it?
They are already on the figures - unlike previous schemes (such as New Deal) participants in the Work Programme stay on their base benefit throughout. There is a programme of "intensive support" for them including daily signing at the Jobcentre for six weeks.
@MikeK it's a start. I would like to see the senior manager concerned prosecuted for Misconduct in Public Office, it is about time it was regarded as unacceptable to keep information from the public. In addition, the stories of all those NHS employees who received payoffs with gagging clauses should be made public - the Crown simply needs to state that it will not attempt to enforce them.
I think the difference between you and I is that I am looking at the improvement in Spain, and you are - quite correctly - thinking Spain, 25% unemployment, that's pretty sh1t.
Here is a list of the indicators that have 'gone positive' in the last three months in Spain.
1. Adecco back in April reported that Spanish temporary worker demand had gone positive in March. (Temping agencies, like Adecco, are the single best forward indicator of improvements. I'll let you know when and if they go positive in Greece.)
2. Retail sales have shown month-on-month improvements in three of the last four months. These aren't at UK levels of growth, but this comes after three years of shrinking sales.
3. Spanish household debt-to-GDP has now come down almost 15% from its peak (it's around 85%, from 100%)
4. The Spanish current account has turned positive, for the first time since the 1990s.
5. Spanish industrial production rose 7.3% year-over-year in April (the last date we have numbers for).
8. Spanish unemployment fell by 48,000 people in April and 98,000 in May.
Now, don't get me wrong, Spain is still very much in the doldrums. Any country with 50% youth unemployment is in a pretty bad way. But almost every economic indicator has started pointing upwards in the last three months. And the riots in Turkey, and the continued problems in Egypt are making Spain look an increasingly attractive holiday destination, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue over the summer.
You may have chosen the right time to get in, Robert, but the downside risks are horrendous.
The sheer size of the property problem cannot be easily solved:
Madrid consultants RR de Acuna said last December that there are almost 2m properties waiting to be sold, including 800,000 used homes on the market, and 700,000 units on the books of developers, 450,000 seized or in foreclosure and 250,000 still being built.
The group said prices are likely to fall a further 30pc in Madrid, Barcelona and other big cities before touching the bottom in 2018, with even steeper drops lasting a decade in some of the coastal areas that ran wild during the bubble. It said acres of concrete would have to be torn down and returned to pasture.
Spanish banks are beginning to offload the unempty properties on their books but there is a massive backlog. Can the banks survive the impact on their balance sheets without further radical recap?
And the benefits of tourist trade moving from Turkey will only be shortlived if riots and strikes return to Spanish streets and cities.
I just hope your returns are sufficient to cover the risks!
Curiously the index has not moved off 0.1% 'nowcast' for Q2 2013 UK Quarter on Quarter growth although the Year on Year figure is for 1.1%.
SWIFT's forecasts for Q3 2013 are much more encouraging with QoQ growth forecast to be 1.3% and YoY 1.4%.
SWIFT were one of the very few forecasters to get Q1 2013 right at 0.3% QoQ growth but their forecasts and nowcasts for Q2 have been persistently low. With almost all main forecasters going for 0.5% growth in Q2, could they be right again but on the other side?
Is astateofdenmark lurking? If so, have you seen anything in published figures to date which might support SWIFT's relative pessimism?
Comments
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10131610/Scots-should-ignore-economy-in-independence-debate.html Welcome aboard the good ship "FT" as she [sic] tries to navigate the path to Engerlisch Scots independence....
This made me laugh: a new Spanish submarine has been made 70 tons overweight. The excess is so large that there are fears that if it submerges, it may not be able to surface again.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2336953/Spains-1-75bn-submarine-programme-torpedoed-realising-near-complete-vessel-70-tonnes-heavy.html
Treat the story - and especially the cause - with a pinch of salt. But it does look as though they have significant problems, and they've signed a contract with the US's Electric Boat to help fix it. Just as we did after design problems with the Astute class.
http://www.thinkdefence.co.uk/2013/05/and-you-thought-hms-astute-had-problems/
Please read comments....
The inspection team gave the school the lowest grade, of "inadequate", in three of four categories, for pupil achievement, quality of teaching, leadership and management. "Too many pupils are in danger of leaving the school without being able to read and write properly," inspectors concluded. "Unless this is put right quickly, pupils are unlikely to flourish in their secondary schools and future lives."
The good bank will be RBE
He's surrounded himself, at minister level, competently enough. His choices at The Home Office, Foreign Office, Education, CoE have not been too shabby.
On a personal level, it appears as though he has been too narrow in his selection of close associates.
Cameron has done worst with the EU and UKIP. He has not been honest, and has looked thin-skinned, frustrated and quite without empathy towards UKIP members and voters.
Overall: a poor negotiator, but a good mediator.
31+8 vs 29+12. Ultmiately geography of voters still gives Labour the seat advantage though.
Also perhaps Lloyds could be split:
We could call the good bank Lloyds and the bad bank HBoS.
Oh wait.
Strategically better to try and keep them Lib Dem voters. But the LD voter in the CON-LAB marginal is going to go the way of the dodo. Sadly, another net gain for the reds.
It rhymes after all.
So iff the economy improves between now and polling day the VI may change.
I think we just need to see how those pesky 2010 Lib Dem voters choose to go in 2015.
I mean, Ed is crap after all...
http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/daily-mail-agrees-pay-substantial-damages-tv-psychic-sally-morgan-over-report-suggesting-she-cheated
*Innocent Face*
An unholy alliance has buried the hatchet in the Mayor - but for all sorts of different reasons.
Sevco !!!!
Australia coach Mickey Arthur says his side have the "best bowling attack in the world" and can put England under pressure in the Ashes.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/cricket/22982588
http://www.spectator.co.uk/columnists/politics/8940631/george-osbornes-own-personal-recovery/
"Osborne was so keen to cut welfare rather than departmental spending that he offered to reopen discussions about further taxes on the wealthy. He reasoned that if the Liberal Democrats could show that the rich were paying yet more in tax, they might be more open to further benefit cuts. But Clegg simply wasn’t interested."
Here is a breakdown and analysis of the unemployment falls mainly focussed on Andalusia. There is also a compelling graph of year on year trends.
http://bit.ly/10zT0gy
There does appear to be a slight improvement in the growth rates of unemployment but the figures are still a long way from indicating a recovery.
Summary:
The new contracts are mainly seasonal contracts, in other words in the Autumn these people will return to be on the unemployed statistics. It’s quite clear that no quality jobs are being created, but above all seasonal work in tourism & agriculture has slightly changed the situation.
As for the balance of payments returning to surplus, Spain seem to have adopted an 'another richard' solution: balancing through a massive fall in imports rather than growth in exports.
You are too long on Spain, Smithson Jr,
http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2013/jun/20/daily-mail-libel-damages-tv-psychic?CMP=twt_fd
The Mail has already published two of them, of one of whom, when appointed in 2009, Lansley said:
"her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
Nothing to see.....move along.....
*Innocent Face*
LOL
I think the difference between you and I is that I am looking at the improvement in Spain, and you are - quite correctly - thinking Spain, 25% unemployment, that's pretty sh1t.
Here is a list of the indicators that have 'gone positive' in the last three months in Spain.
1. Adecco back in April reported that Spanish temporary worker demand had gone positive in March. (Temping agencies, like Adecco, are the single best forward indicator of improvements. I'll let you know when and if they go positive in Greece.)
2. Retail sales have shown month-on-month improvements in three of the last four months. These aren't at UK levels of growth, but this comes after three years of shrinking sales.
3. Spanish household debt-to-GDP has now come down almost 15% from its peak (it's around 85%, from 100%)
4. The Spanish current account has turned positive, for the first time since the 1990s.
5. Spanish industrial production rose 7.3% year-over-year in April (the last date we have numbers for).
6. Spanish exports have been rising at a very rapid pace. See http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/exports and stretch the graph back to 2006 or so.
7. Spanish worker productivity is up 15% in the last five years, and continues to climb. See http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/productivity
8. Spanish unemployment fell by 48,000 people in April and 98,000 in May.
Now, don't get me wrong, Spain is still very much in the doldrums. Any country with 50% youth unemployment is in a pretty bad way. But almost every economic indicator has started pointing upwards in the last three months. And the riots in Turkey, and the continued problems in Egypt are making Spain look an increasingly attractive holiday destination, so I wouldn't be surprised to see that continue over the summer.
The Care Quality Commission will publish the names of those accused of a cover-up over the deaths of infants later today.
And about time too! I hope this is the start of getting rid of the corrupt, mendacious and unprofessional top people and others at the NHS. However I don't hold out much hope of this happening.
"Since the names have been redacted we cannot be sure who uttered the words: "Are you kidding me? This can never be in a public domain nor subject to FoI [Freedom of Information request]". Or who in the organisation realised that events in Cumbria sounded "just like Mid Staffs to me", a reference to a hospital trust that appeared to record hundreds of excess deaths and where patients suffered appalling care.
In evidence to the Francis inquiry, there had been claims that Bower "did not wish to criticise organisations" she had previously led. She was formerly chief executive of the NHS West Midlands' strategic health authority, where she was responsible for supervising the performance of Stafford hospital."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/society/2013/jun/19/cynthia-bower-report-cumbrian-hospital-baby-deaths
http://www.exaronews.com/articles/5012/hmrc-alarms-contractors-with-clampdown-on-off-payroll-deals
Would never have happened under a Labour government....
The sheer size of the property problem cannot be easily solved:
Madrid consultants RR de Acuna said last December that there are almost 2m properties waiting to be sold, including 800,000 used homes on the market, and 700,000 units on the books of developers, 450,000 seized or in foreclosure and 250,000 still being built.
The group said prices are likely to fall a further 30pc in Madrid, Barcelona and other big cities before touching the bottom in 2018, with even steeper drops lasting a decade in some of the coastal areas that ran wild during the bubble. It said acres of concrete would have to be torn down and returned to pasture.
Spanish banks are beginning to offload the unempty properties on their books but there is a massive backlog. Can the banks survive the impact on their balance sheets without further radical recap?
And the benefits of tourist trade moving from Turkey will only be shortlived if riots and strikes return to Spanish streets and cities.
I just hope your returns are sufficient to cover the risks!
Curiously the index has not moved off 0.1% 'nowcast' for Q2 2013 UK Quarter on Quarter growth although the Year on Year figure is for 1.1%.
SWIFT's forecasts for Q3 2013 are much more encouraging with QoQ growth forecast to be 1.3% and YoY 1.4%.
SWIFT were one of the very few forecasters to get Q1 2013 right at 0.3% QoQ growth but their forecasts and nowcasts for Q2 have been persistently low. With almost all main forecasters going for 0.5% growth in Q2, could they be right again but on the other side?
Is astateofdenmark lurking? If so, have you seen anything in published figures to date which might support SWIFT's relative pessimism?