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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now some polling news to cheer the blue team up
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Now some polling news to cheer the blue team up
Today's YouGov for Sun had LAB lead down to just 6%
CON 32
LAB 38
LD 10
UKIP 13
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Crossover by Christmas.
2015 Con Maj Nailed On.
EdM is supported by 58% of LAB VI and 48% of 2010 LAB.
2% of labour voters think a conservative majority would be best for the country? I can only assume they surveyed Dan Hodges.
OT - sad news on the 51 year old Gandolfini:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22980414#FBM253037
Time will tell but doesn't look like Miliband is managing to repeat Brown's old trick. Remember this from September 2007?
In the wide-ranging interview, Mr Brown's first with a quality newspaper since he entered No 10, he disclosed how he intends to force Mr Cameron off the centre ground. "I want this government to be not partisan but speak for the whole of Britain. I want us not to be in any way sectional but be a government that genuinely unifies the country. And I will tell my own party, too."
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1890396/posts
"Shadow health secretary Andy Burnham has told Pulse that the NHS is already ‘lost’ and any further privatisation would make it ‘irretrievable’."
‘The more time goes on, the more irretrievable the situation becomes – the more contracts are signed, the more services that are privatised, the harder it becomes for me to bring it back."
http://www.pulsetoday.co.uk/news/political-news/the-nhs-is-lost-says-burnham/20003308.article#.UcKZPsu9KK0
For a change of government vote you need reasons. Negatives vs the Cons are diminishing. Positive for Labour ? There arent any.
!. Twigg APPEARING to agree with Gove's education policy. BIG MISTAKE
2. Ed shocking at PMQ's according to most BBC commentators
3. Camden council describing why they were being forced to house a girl with a child outside the borough because they couldn't meet her requirements-a ground floor flat with two bedrooms and a garden because she had a three year old child and bad legs- with the £26,000 cap. She turned up with a lawyer and a labour councillor. The story got a lot of publicity and the public reaction was unanimously hostile.
The last two days produced the perfect storm. He'll rise like a phoenix.....
Labour seems more interested in the NHS as an organisation - or an ideal - than they are in the welfare of patients. Yesterday's report into the CQC shows this very well. An organisation set up by Labour to regulate healthcare and social services, and a year later it is covering up wrongdoings.
Add to this the payments to whistle-blowers.
Add to this the attacks on relatives trying to get justice in Stafford and elsewhere.
Putting all of this together, it becomes obvious that some see the NHS as an ideal worthy of protection, rather than an organisation dedicated to helping patients.
And Labour is complicit in this mindset.
This poll is still within MOE - as would be a Labour lead of 12 tomorrow.....
IF these lower leads are sustained we may be seeing a slow improvement in the economy - and the continuing lack of any coherent alternative Labour narrative of what they would do differently.
"TBH I doubt any of these registered with voters - only saddos like us!"
Normally I'd agree with you but i've hardly been following politics recently but just heard this background noise which kept suggesting Ed was being pretty useless. If I'd been a floating voter filling in a yougov poll yesterday I wouldn't be supporting ED.
There was some real anger towards this girl from Camden and her backers because of her sense of entitlement. Unless you live in Central London £26,000 for a Mother and child sounds quite generous.
This benefit cap is a serious elephant trap for Labour and one they'll have to sort out.
Do you think the the Conservative press will give Ed a free pass for the election.
Think Kinnock 92 with knobs on and from far out ....
Drip drip ....
I'd like to more if Labour spoke up for such relatives rather than just saying stupid soundbites such as 'three months to save the NHS'.
I still think everything hinges on the economy. If by 2015 voters can see the sunny uplands of increasing real income and greater job security then there is no great incentive to switch to Labour. If the opposite is true (which I increasingly doubt) then we'll face the horrendous prospect of Prime Minister Ed Milliband.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2344721/Exposed-bosses-hospital-deaths-cover-Two-women-hid-baby-deaths-evidence.html
Secondly, it is a Yougov poll.
Thirdly, 6% behind isn't that great.
Having said all that it does seem that Labour have strategic difficulties. Having spent 2 years not having any policies they have basically adopted the Coalition policies on spending limits (with a trivial £10bn of capital spending as a supposed difference), education and health.
This was an interesting article that was linked in the overnight thread: http://labour-uncut.co.uk/2013/06/18/labour-is-still-headed-for-trouble-in-next-week’s-spending-review/
It points out the problems that Labour are likely to have next week in respect of the spending review. When it is increasingly part of the consensus that austerity will last through the next Parliament as well hard choices would have to be made. Newsnight last night indicated by the middle of the next Parliament 1/3 of all government spending will be on health. The price of ring fencing for all other spending is massive.
Does Labour have anything to say about this? Anything at all?
The shadow health secretary, Andrew Lansley, says her record at the strategic health authority "provided a very poor basis for Cynthia Bower to be given her new job as the head of the independent health regulator. It is impossible for us to have confidence in Cynthia Bower's ability to perform adequately in this new role unless and until we have an independent inquiry into what went wrong at Stafford hospital."
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/feb/23/care-quality-commission-problems-timeline
Bring back the Badger, gas the badgers.
Commentary from the left rarely rises above "fops" and "chumocracy"....
The cryptic remark last night was a gentle dig at your tendency to see/assume the worst in the Tories. Instead of the person on Newsnight being daft, it must all be a conspiracy, surely...
Separately you may have missed it - would recommend Deer Hunting with Jesus for you. I think you'd enjoy it (this is a serious comment).
Transport funding especially has been concentrated on urban areas, culminating in the HS2 madness.
"As part of a "light-touch" regulatory regime, one of Bower's first acts is to disband the CQC's central NHS investigations team inherited from the Healthcare Commission, despite its track record in exposing scandals such as the one at Stafford. The decision is met with consternation from inside the organisation and the wider NHS. Critics feel it will send the wrong message to hospitals which want to keep failings secret."
And now that I see you can make predictions how about your prediction as to when Britain gets a single month of trade surplus.
"Look! Squirrel!"
In 2015 its highly likely that we'll have an election campaign in which neither party has a realistic chance of an outright majority.
In which case all the talk will be about minority governments, possible coalitions, which manifesto commitments are or are not available for negotiation etc.
2009
1 April: The Care Quality Commission (CQC) is established as the regulator of health and social care in England in a merger of three watchdogs: the Healthcare Commission, the Commission for Social Care Inspection and the Mental Health Act Commission. The merger was the idea of the prime minister, Gordon Brown, who wanted to cut the cost of regulation.
The CQC begins with a smaller budget than the combined funding of its three predecessors and, according to both supporters and critics, too broad a remit.
"Numeracy: Pupils struggle with sums in Wales says Estyn.
Pupils in half of Wales' secondary schools and 40% of primary schools have weak numeracy skills, according to the schools watchdog.
Estyn says children struggle with basic sums, such as multiplying, and rely on a calculator. As a result, they are unable to do harder calculations......
The Welsh government said the report would help to raise numeracy standards.(After 13 years in power!!)....
Estyn discovered that some pupils it saw during inspections found it difficult to carry out basic sums, such as fractions, percentages and decimals.
In a report which focused on children in key stage 2 and 3 (ages seven to 14), it also said many could not recall important number facts, such as how to multiply.
It meant young people were unable to apply reasoning to solve more advanced mathematical problems.
It pointed to a number of improvements needed, such as better monitoring of pupils and ensuring that schools have a clear numeracy policy that applies across all classes and departments.
Chief inspector Ann Keane said it was key that children were taught the basic skills so they did not need to rely on calculators....
"We know that many schools have not given as much attention to numeracy as they have done for literacy, but it is vital that schools have clear plans for developing numeracy skills.
"The plans need to address young people's weak numeracy skills so that they can do mental arithmetic, grasp numerical reasoning and don't have to rely on a calculator.
"Basic numeracy is an essential life skill that is needed in most jobs and in managing personal finances.
"But a majority of pupils struggle to understand how numeracy is relevant to their everyday lives and this needs to be tackled."
Estyn also recommended that local authorities or education consortia should support teachers in improving their knowledge, skills and confidence in teaching numeracy skills."
Test yourself with these sample numeracy questions
Year 3 (age 7-8): Double 14p =
Year 4 (age 8-9): 96 tins are divided equally into 6 boxes. How many tins in each box?
Year 5 (age 9-10): Nine pens cost £3.15. How much do three pens cost?
Year 6 (age 10-11): 2,700 divided by 30 =
Year 7 (age 11-12): 2% of £1,700 =
Year 8 (age 12-13): Round 256.34505 to two decimal places
Year 9 (age 13-14): Work out 13.8 × 0.2 =
Source: Learning Wales Sample Numeracy Material.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-22977378
I have an early Victorian work-book of a child aged nine who was doing sums far harder than these. It would appear that Wales has regressed since then - forget about competing globally.
Health is currently 18% of total government spending.
The pressure on health comes because although this government has committed itself to increasing health spending in real terms (by a tiny amount) health cost inflation is higher than in the economy as a whole as a result of the cost of new treatments, equipment, obselesence of older equipment and, at least historically pay. So even maintaining spending means that there is increasing pressure over time.
Hopefully the reorganisation (which seems to be proceeding remarkably quietly) will reduce admin costs freeing resources for this.
I agree with you about DGHs although principally on the grounds of quality of care rather than cost savings.
I repeat my question. What does Labour have to say about all this?
tim: I look forward to Labours "vote Labour to close your local hospital" campaign. Local DGHs are popular even when they are not very good.
As usual, clueless people are concentrating their fire in the wrong place. And now Boris is talking about an even more pointless (and expensive) Crossrail 2 ...
http://www.tfl.gov.uk/corporate/projectsandschemes/27405.aspx
Our banking sector is still seriously undercapitalised and has made grossly inadequate provision for bad debts. RBS, as usual, is in the most serious condition requiring £13bn of new capital, £10bn of which is allegedly in hand by planned disposals.
This stress testing is urgent. If the bubble starts to burst in China, as it is threatening to, we could have a new banking crisis on our hands relatively quickly. Our banks are simply not strong enough to withstand that at the moment.
In the meantime it means we will have more of what we have seen over the last 3 or 4 years with banks very cautious about lending, deleveraging and reducing their balance sheets and a private sector struggling to get credit for investment. It has been and remains probably the biggest single constraint on growth.
Equally there is a segment of Conservative supporters who are City cultists.
Each group has elevated its cult to the mentality of a religion and demands that the focus of the nation should be to support its god.
Any criticism of these gods is regarded as heresey and the 'unbelievers' viewed as worthless.
On Tuesday evening on BBC1 Wales at 22.35 on Week In, Week Out, "Legendary broadcaster Vincent Kane returned to Wales to deliver his verdict on the Welsh economy and asks - is Wales dying a slow death while the politicians look on?"
He concluded that unless the Welsh Government act very quickly on education and the economy, it will quickly become an economic backwater with a dominant poverty-stricken public sector.
He said that if nothing is done quickly, then Cromwell's famous words should be used to the Welsh Assembly, "YOU HAVE BEEN SAT TOO LONG HERE FOR ANY GOOD YOU HAVE BEEN DOING. DEPART, I SAY, AND LET US HAVE DONE WITH YOU. IN THE NAME OF GOD, GO!"
This was a fair but hard-hitting review with a pathetic response by a Welsh Assembly Minister.
It is worth watching and available on BBC iplayer at:http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b02xgkfw
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-22980414
He called Libya right.
He has carried out the role of leading Britain admirably, looking and sounding the part.
He does not have a majority and has managed the realities of coalition government well. His party don't seem half as alive to this as he is.
Fundamentally, he is a tactician rather than a strategist. He's a very good tactician, but the strategy has to come first.
I bet they are cursing Gormless and his 'unbreakable' Carrier-contract! Yet another "not-thought-through" Labour moment....
Additionally, I'm not sure that BoT is the most important stats - British Invisibles are a very important income stream as well and BoT excludes them (I believe)
A lot of Cameron haters want some perfect right-wing PM that doesn't exist. Someone who doesn't compromise, smashes the left out of the park, tells the EU to p*ss off, sends immigrants back home, lowers the tax rate etc etc. It's unrealistic really, not to mention unelectable.
As much as I enjoy Farage's gusto I couldn't ever imagine him representing the UK at the G8. When all the intransigent Cameron haters vote for Farage at the next GE they'll effectively be voting for him to become PM, inadvertently putting in Ed Miliband as PM instead.
The only criticism is that he is a bit blancmange-like. Critically, he must establish if this is because he is in a coalition so daren't be more assertive, or whether that's just him.
Like many Cons supporters I very much hope it is the former although we've only seen the latter so far.
He's still the best of the bunch, that said.
F1: Mercedes and Pirelli face the F1 Inquisition today. Depending how things go some think that Mercedes could leave the sport or Pirelli sue the FIA:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/formula1/22974180
Personally, I think Mercedes will not leave whatever happens. You don't hire Hamilton, and Lowe, and Wolff and then decide to leave a year later. However, they may decide to throw Brawn overboard, which is something that has been rumoured since before the tyre issue arose.
Personally, I think that's insane. Brawn's one of the best leaders in F1.
In unrelated news, the Xbox One has become renamed the Xbox One80 after they u-turned on features that, a few days ago, were absolutely integral to the system:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-22980973
The used games nonsense and 24 hour online check-in have been axed, probably because at E3 Sony treated Microsoft like Star Trek treats unnamed extras in red uniforms. However, the always-on camera and $100 extra cost remain.
I suspect lots of Xbox fans who were reluctant boycotters will gladly go back, but Microsoft won't win Playstation fans over, and I'd be surprised if this were enough for the neutrals to jump their way.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/voting-intention-2
"There is no downward trend on the red line "
Whilst I dismiss most of the fears of the anti-GM brigade, it is an area where caution is advisable. That does not mean not use them: just that we need to thoroughly work out any consequences of their use.
GM crops should be used to help people out of starvation, not as a cash-cow for the food companies.
Besides, I believe I am right in saying that much of the problem with food is not one of production, but of distribution.
http://www.npr.org/blogs/thesalt/2012/10/18/163034053/top-five-myths-of-genetically-modified-seeds-busted
In 20 years time you might be able to get from Leeds and Manchester to London a bit quicker.
Or you might if you're rich or have an expense account.
If you want to benefit transport outside London then spend the money on transport outside London not on a new railway to London.
You could go to every town and county in the country and find ways in which transport could be improved now if the money being wasted on HS2 was available.
And HS2 is being used as an excuse to build Crossrail 2.
Do you travel on The Tube? It is Nineteenth-Century architecture for a Twenty-First Century, global city. The days of underfed, polite Londoners are long gone (as my return breaks to my home-city remind me).
London needs better infrastructure to accomodate all the gawping Africans and the obese in-breds that trundle along her transport arteries. And England needs London to work....
D-.
The trade balance includes services as well as goods and has been in continuous deficit since early 1998.
IIRC it doesn't include tourism - which is another thing which Britain runs a huge and continuous deficit in.
Britain's underlying problem isn't that we produce too little its that we consume too much.
And its that underlying problem which Cameron and Osborne have shown no interest in tackling - the contrary in fact with their obsession abour restarting household borrowing.
"Jelly looks like a jewel, but its trembling and shaking deprive it of the solidity of a yokan; while that intricately shaped heap of sugar and milk which they call blancmange is an absurdity which is beyond the power of words to describe"
In the following ways:
1) It will speed up the hub-to-hub travel between Leeds and Manchester and Birmingham, as well as London.
2) It will increase paths and reduce congestion on existing lines.
Of these, point 2) is the most important. Just ask residents of areas of Stoke who had their local stations closed during the West Coast Main Line upgrade farce just to help Branson run his trains a little faster.
And the WCML upgrade is a big argument against the practicality of massively upgrading existing lines. £8-10 billion, massively more than planned, late, and for far less functionality. Another example of Jessop's first rule of engineering...
Yet, my three year old has been in nursery this year learning cursive writing! And I didn't start that until 2nd year of Junior school. Apparently it helps massively with reading because of the spacing.
I'd be hard pushed to remember the correct shapes for all cursive letters.
And climate is probably becoming more unstable, so more challenges there.
But as you say, distribution and waste is key.
But probably the most effective way to reduce starvation is to get girls into education worldwide, and stabilize the population...
Still a long long road to 2015, and anything could happen.
Plant have also naturally acquired genes from animals, probably transferred by bacteria. Legumes use a hemoglobin variant in their root nodules, which is clearly derived from vertebrate hemoglobin.
Of course, just because it happens naturally doesn't mean it's safe, but the claim that inter-species gene transfer never happens in nature is plain false.
Some things are just universal.
Healthy retail sales - up 1.9 pc in May
Labour plank of 'the economies crap' seems to be getting flimsier...
Crossrail was talked about since 1948, and was consistently put off because it made little sense from a cost-benefit POV. Indeed, it only really makes sense in conjunction with a Thames Estuary airport.
But my main point is the way the massive cost of Crossrail has gone with barely a murmur, yet HS2 to Birmingham (within a billion of the price) is suddenly a waste of money, despite much bigger advantages.
Although a large reason of the lack of angst over Crossrail is people realising it will increase the value of houses that are near the stations.
And calling the tube a nineteenth-century architecture is rather ignoring the advances that have been made since then.
If China sneezes, Australia catches syphilis.
How long did it take to go from conception to implementation regarding the Chunnel...?
You realised they’d run the country into the ground. You wouldn’t dream of voting Cons, so you switched to LD. Now what?
Turns out the LDs are fighting their corner, winning a bit, losing a bit, restraining the evil Tories, erring on the side of saving the country rather than out-Labouring Labour and, critically, they’re in government. Hurrah. Let’s give them a B-.
But what about a homecoming? And hold on – here’s Twigg agreeing with Gove, Balls agreeing with Jeffrey, and you still think that EdM is manifestly unfit for office. So what do you get from going back to Labour? Nicer people? Of course – but what if there’s no country left to be nice in? Cons? You’d still rather stick pins in your eyes. What about LDs? That might keep this coalition going and you know what? Through gritted teeth you realise they’re not doing a bad job at what needs to be done (“tough decisions” which you don’t think Lab can make).
And I agree with you.
And therefore I think the LD vote will be stickier than some (on here) are forecasting.
However, it's clear that Ireland and Spain have dragged themselves back from the brink. Portugal is also on the mend. And the jury is still out on Italy, where the government has been very slow to pass structural reforms.
Right now, I worry (as an investor) far more about Australia and Canada, which are resource dependent economies with housing bubbles. Household debt in Australia is something like 250% of GDP (as compared to a fifth of that level in Germany, France and Italy). Any slowdown there could look really ugly.
And Japan is going to be an interesting one.