politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB edge a notch up in the “most seats” betting but CON sti

antifrank said:

isam said:

Wtf?

Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
27/03/2015 08:37
Uh oh. Joey Essex to quiz Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage for ITV2 on #GE2015, reveals @WillPayneTV thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/s…

Very dangerous for all the party leaders.

Never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and then beat you with experience.

Joey Essex is a bit of a Miliband fan iirc - could be dangerous territory for Ed.

http://i .dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/14/article-2523626-1A0E939100000578-987_634x622.jpg

If Labour are so confident, why leave Miliband off so many leaflets?

Scott_P said:

@SebastianEPayne: By simply turning up and not falling over, Miliband ‘wins’ - why last night vindicated the Tory strategy on debates http://t.co/bB4m9bGfMX

I've seen this theory a lot this morning. But the reason Ed Miliband performed relatively well as compared with David Cameron was mainly that David Cameron was unusually poor. He was at his most patrician, vague and patronising.

The real question of course is how many of those 2.7m were floating voters or even persuadable? I suggest very few.

The secondary effects of how it is reported on and in the media may be more significant and I don't think Ed will be too displeased at that.

"Conservative activists have taken to wearing Salmond masks outside Miliband campaign events as a way of goading the Labour leader." from the Torygraph itself with photographic evidence.

Looks like the Tory pranks have come unstuck. Or perhaps The Telegraph should take the blame for their blatent misreporting of Salmond on Marr. Or perhaps Salmond should hold a press conference, a la Jim "the egg" Murphy, and accuse the Tories of stirring up violence and hatred - it certainly would be nearer the mark.

Or perhaps English political parties and their newspapers should grow up!

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 32s33 seconds ago
Independent Police Complaints Commission investigate 3 further police corruption claims - officers accused of protecting VIP child abusers

DavidL said:

The real question of course is how many of those 2.7m were floating voters or even persuadable? I suggest very few.

The secondary effects of how it is reported on and in the media may be more significant and I don't think Ed will be too displeased at that.

Radio 4 had "54% of the poll preferred David Cameron, but 52% of floating voters may now vote Labour as opposed to 30% for the Conservatives."

So a spin as expected from Radio 4 a fair and balanced view.

Politics aside, North Uist looks lovely judging by twitter photos.

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 35s35 seconds ago
Lawyer for 'Top Gear' producer Oisin Tymon who was punched by Jeremy #Clarkson says he has told police he does not want to press charges.

BBC digging a hole re Top Gear?

dr_spyn said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

Wtf?

Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
27/03/2015 08:37
Uh oh. Joey Essex to quiz Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage for ITV2 on #GE2015, reveals @WillPayneTV thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/s…

Very dangerous for all the party leaders.

Never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and then beat you with experience.

Joey Essex is a bit of a Miliband fan iirc - could be dangerous territory for Ed.

http://i .dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/14/article-2523626-1A0E939100000578-987_634x622.jpg

Joey Essex living proof that Blair's mantra of Education, Education Education was no more than hot air.

You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil must be lead.

DavidL said:

The real question of course is how many of those 2.7m were floating voters or even persuadable? I suggest very few.

The secondary effects of how it is reported on and in the media may be more significant and I don't think Ed will be too displeased at that.

I would suggest that those who watched the 'debates' last night are already politically engaged and therefore not entirely representative of the majority – there will be some who could be regarded as ‘floating voters’ per se, but as you say, they will be few and far between imho.

Bit damning aside in the weekly SU email

"Currently only around 1% of ... University students are registered to vote in the General Election. "

antifrank said:

dr_spyn said:

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

isam said:

Wtf?

Tom Newton Dunn (@tnewtondunn)
27/03/2015 08:37
Uh oh. Joey Essex to quiz Cameron, Miliband, Clegg and Farage for ITV2 on #GE2015, reveals @WillPayneTV thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/s…

Very dangerous for all the party leaders.

Never argue with an idiot because he'll drag you down to his level and then beat you with experience.

Joey Essex is a bit of a Miliband fan iirc - could be dangerous territory for Ed.

http://i .dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/12/14/article-2523626-1A0E939100000578-987_634x622.jpg

Joey Essex living proof that Blair's mantra of Education, Education Education was no more than hot air.

You can lead a horse to water, but a pencil must be lead.

+1.

Makes a change from you can lead a whore to culture but you can't make her think.

dr_spyn said:

Sky News Newsdesk ‏@SkyNewsBreak 35s35 seconds ago
Lawyer for 'Top Gear' producer Oisin Tymon who was punched by Jeremy #Clarkson says he has told police he does not want to press charges.

BBC digging a hole re Top Gear?

Perhaps he wants a job with the new improved Clarkson company. He is now a bit short of work...

North Uist:

Benbecula retired social worker Andrew Walker has been elected as councillor to represent Benbecula & North Uist, standing as an Independent.
He beat Roslyn MacPherson by a clear margin, polling 437 votes to her 302.

Walker is an ex SNP man - Labour didn't bother with a candidate

Good news for the Blues from Prof. Stephen Fisher this morning!
With his imput data showing the Tories 2% ahead of Labour on 34% compared with 32%, there is a corresponding shift in his updated projection of GE seats.
The Tories are shown as winning 296 seats (+12 compared with last week), Labour are on 261 (-17) with the LibDems unchanged on 21 seats.
The SNP are on a new high of 47 seats with UKIP on 5, Plaid on 3 and the Greens holding onto their one existing seat.
The Tories are givrn a 74% chance of winning the most seats and a 16% chance of achieving an overall majority, where he gives Labour only a 1% chance!
Stand by for a significant shift in the betting odds.

peter_from_putney said:

Good news for the Blues from Prof. Stephen Fisher this morning!
With his imput data showing the Tories 2% ahead of Labour on 34% compared with 32%, there is a corresponding shift in his updated projection of GE seats.
The Tories are shown as winning 296 seats (+12 compared with last week), Labour are on 261 (-17) with the LibDems unchanged on 21 seats.
The SNP are on a new high of 47 seats with UKIP on 5, Plaid on 3 and the Greens holding onto their one existing seat.
Stand by for a significant shift in the betting odds.

The odds already reflect this position.

Matt Forde political party... I went to see his show with David Lammy on Wednesday. Great fun, here are the podcasts from previous shows... The Paul Nuttall one sheds some light on Amjad Bashir

When is he going to be unleashed as the Tory secret weapon?

http://www.mattforde.com/

Pulpstar said:

I note that Glenrothes is a 25% probability for SNP according to electionforecast and 36% according to Electoral Calculus...

Will Labour honestly get every single one of the extra voters who will turn out at the GE ?

I have it as as SNP by a shade under 500 votes/1% on current turnout

Scott_P said:

@ElectionsEtc: No electoral-system bias this time? New #GE2015 forecast: 74% chance Tories win most votes, 74% they win most seats http://t.co/vZolp8nukS

I've banged out that line for yonks that the electoral bias has essentially disappeared now.

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

@ElectionsEtc: No electoral-system bias this time? New #GE2015 forecast: 74% chance Tories win most votes, 74% they win most seats http://t.co/vZolp8nukS

I've banged out that line for yonks that the electoral bias has essentially disappeared now.

I've been playing with that scenario for a while, in fact, I think there's a chance that the Tories could have the fewest votes but most seats if the Con to UKIP switchers are in the safe Tory seats.

DavidL said:

notme said:

Did anyone notice a possible sleight of hand by Miliband last night, in his promise to control "the deficit". He talked about the £75 billion deficit (its not, it is £91 billion), it seems strange that he would want to downplay the government's inability to get it down quick enough.

It's because him and Balls have thought up a new wheeze, which the mainstream commentators seem to have let slide. The 'deficit' he is referring to is not the 'deficit' that we know, but something called the "current account deficit".

http://www.adamsmith.org/research/think-pieces/should-we-be-concerned-about-the-uks-current-account-deficit/

It might not be sleight of hand, maybe just using a simpler message to distinguish between capital spending and recurring spending. But I'm suspicious of the repeated use of "current account deficit".

I made this point last night when he said it. Paxo really should have nailed him on it because it would have been a lot more informative than calling him a north London geek.

Labour still think it is ok to borrow to invest, even when we are way more than half way through the economic cycle and it will all too soon be necessary for borrowing to increase again. Unless this is a very unusual economic cycle indeed (and it does have some unusual features such as a zero interest rate policy deep into the recovery) the economy will turn down again some time in the next Parliament turning all surplus and "paying down the debt" plans into a ball of chalk.

The question is what state will we be in when this happens? It really, really needs to be a much better state than this. As a deficit hawk I think the tories have not done enough on this and are storing up a world of pain for us all as a result. Irresponsible does not come close to what I think of Labour's plans.

The media let Miliband and Balls get away with this every time. They always say "balance the books" by the end of next parliament, which doesn't mean what you or I think it means, merely that the current account will be reduced to zero (they promise) but the capital account will still have its taps open to the tune of billions every year.

Millsy said:

The media let Miliband and Balls get away with this every time. They always say "balance the books" by the end of next parliament, which doesn't mean what you or I think it means, merely that the current account will be reduced to zero (they promise) but the capital account will still have its taps open to the tune of billions every year.

And of course the two Eds will re-use the old Brown line of reclassifying current expenditure (on education, for example), as 'investment'.

Theuniondivvie said:

dr_spyn said:

ITV News ‏@itvnews 4s5 seconds ago
North Yorkshire Police say they are still looking into the assault of a Top Gear producer by Jeremy Clarkson http://www.itv.com/news/story/2015-03-27/jeremy-clarkson-producer-will-not-press-charges-over-fracas/ …

Will they be chasing up some of the threats of violence from Top Gear fans that the producer received via Twitter?

Probably outsourcing the work to Police Scotland.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Pulpstar said:

Scott_P said:

@ElectionsEtc: No electoral-system bias this time? New #GE2015 forecast: 74% chance Tories win most votes, 74% they win most seats http://t.co/vZolp8nukS

I've banged out that line for yonks that the electoral bias has essentially disappeared now.

I've been playing with that scenario for a while, in fact, I think there's a chance that the Tories could have the fewest votes but most seats if the Con to UKIP switchers are in the safe Tory seats.

I had a £400 (I think) or so hole on that result at on point but Corals and Paddy have allowed me to cover it, and the rest.

I'm on it at 100/1 with Paddy

Pulpstar said:

I've banged out that line for yonks that the electoral bias has essentially disappeared now.

Yes, but remember, Dave "can't win from here..."

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have the most important result regarding who won the debate, and unfortunately it is not good:

Nabavi 0
Shadsy 5

Looks like Shadsy saw you coming.

Alanbrooke said:

surbiton said:

Gadfly said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Labour will make important gains in London in the general election, according to a special Guardian/ICM telephone poll which shows the party winning several seats in the capital.

The party is set to advance by 5 percentage points from its previous general election performance to reach 42% – and is a full 10 points ahead of the Tories, who fall back 3 points from their 2010 result to land at 32%.

On a uniform swing, these numbers would deliver eight gains for Labour, mostly in the west of the city – where Brentford and Isleworth, Ealing Central and Acton, and Harrow East would all be picked up from the Tories.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/27/london-labour-gains-general-election-poll

I can believe it. London is a very different city, now.

I blame all the immigrants.

Bloody foreigners - coming over here, and paying our taxes :-)

It's worse that that - coming over here, doing the work we would not do and then paying their taxes :-)

So your company doesn't train its workforce ?

Surbiton ignores the elephant in the room.

If things were as bad as some on the left say they are people would have to take those jobs to survive. we are now in a position where people can make a lifestyle choice not to work and the rest of us get to pay for it.

This is not hyperbole- I personally know 2 people who have decided that getting up early and working long hours is to much hassle and they left their jobs voluntarily to sit on their ar ses.

Yet Labour scream if anyone tries to do something about this.

Flightpath said:

rural_voter said:

"This goes to the heart of the issue. Two generations ago, people voted on class lines and the parties' policies reflected this, e.g. the Tories' promise, in the 1950s, to build more Council houses than Labour. "

Bring back Harold Macmillan!

Talk but no real action since this report

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Affordability_of_housing_in_the_United_Kingdom

It was not just council houses - it was a mix of public and private.

I agree. But the total was about 450,000 /year.

Richard_Nabavi said:

I have the most important result regarding who won the debate, and unfortunately it is not good:

Nabavi 0
Shadsy 5

I hope the Nabbers funds will stretch to some gruel for the weekend?

If not try one of the Coalition's excellent food banks where the PM will be doing penance for not knowing the precise number of these outlets.

" Willie Nelson to open chain of marijuana stores
Veteran country star plans to launch his own brand of weed, Willie’s Reserve, to sell is states where marijuana is legal"

I wonder what his advert for it will be?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfgZH8kFAKc

@toadmeister: Here's why the studio audience was so warm towards Cameron last night -- he sang to them in the ad break http://uk.businessinsider.com/david-cameron-benny-hill-ernie-sky-debate-miliband-battlefornumber10-2015-3

Guilty pleasure... Tidy!

Kay Burley (@KayBurley)
27/03/2015 10:30
This is how my night ended! #BattleForNumber10 pic.twitter.com/i2nKUzLDXf

surbiton said:

OldKingCole said:

I’m still amazed at Dave’s extraordinary comment that the rise in foodbank use is because Job Centres now tell people about them!

He is from a different world. In many ways, almost like a royal. Not only has he not experienced poverty, he actually cannot imagine what it is like. For people like him, poverty is tackled by ticking gift tax box.

So Harriett Harman and Ed have faced poverty have they?

FFS try thinking before you spout your lines.

I understand Ed's little 2 kitchen pad is worth more than 2 million and is more expensive than Cameron's place......

Talking about royalty *cough* Harman *cough*

Casino_Royale said:

Sean_F said:

JohnO said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

I am still stunned over the Bercow matter and the ineptitude of Cameron and his people's handling of the Conservative MPs. Maybe it is better for the party (and in 5 years time the country) that he and Osborne are removed following loss of office than to stagger on in office losing touch with the party that they lead. Twould have been better that Major had lost in 92.

Er, you mean the 23 - and pretty well the entireity of the bad, mad and dispossessed - out of a Parliamentary party of 304? As DavidL commented yesterday it is the thought that a Tory Government might have to rely on this unlovely crew for 'support' were it to gain a majority, that fills many of us with a sense of deep foreboding.

I don't know what they see in the Gollum of British Politics.

Without giving away sources I know two of those Tories are personal friends of Bercow. Of the rest, I think they like him because he calls them regularly to ask awkward and embarassing questions of Cameron, whom they don't have time for.

The enemy of my enemy is my friend.

That tends to inform my view of Bercow.

Conservative majority looks high to me at 7.8 right now.

@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-), UKIP 16 (-), Greens 5 (-), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/7XhlYV48U6

@JohnRentoul: Everything Yes voters believe about the Scottish #indyref is wrong @alexmassie http://t.co/3xxfzw2Hg2

@blairmcdougall: End of the pink champagne betrayal narrative? Just 3.4% voted no because of The Vow while 5.2% voted no because they didn't trust Salmond.

@TheScreamingEagles
Rigged poll and outlier!

Oh and first, among many.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-), UKIP 16 (-), Greens 5 (-), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/7XhlYV48U6

Rinse. Repeat.

OblitusSumMe said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Disgrace that Miliband was attacked. With that, the attack on Galloway, and the vile behaviour towards Farage, it seems politics is becoming uglier.

The big problem with this (on top of physical assault being unacceptable in itself) is that it makes politicians even less inclined to meet ordinary people in uncontrolled environments, because doing so not only puts them at risk of facing embarrassing questions, but now also of being assaulted by their political opponents. Also means that politics is likely to become even more the preserve of weirdos who either find such tactics acceptable or tolerable.

Thankfully pbc contributors would never stoop to such bad behaviour.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/election/article-1268082/General-Election-2010-Tory-council-candidate-Martin-Coxall-arrested-John-Prescott-visit.html

isam said:

GIN1138 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 33 (-), Con 31 (-), LD 9 (-), UKIP 16 (-), Greens 5 (-), Others 6 (-). Tables here: http://t.co/7XhlYV48U6

Rinse. Repeat.

6 non movers! A first?

Makes you wonder whether Populus just ask's the same people twice a week...

I reckon take some of the 7.8 on offer for CON majority with Betfair at the moment.

Optimistic CON punters will surely back it in

Last night's by election result in Vale of Glamorgan looks good for COn prospects too.

Tissue_Price said:

I rather like the more general suggestion that Speakers should be elected at the start of a Parliament for one Parliament only [with a peerage at the end of it]. Exceptions could perhaps be made for Parliaments lasting fewer than 2 years.

You're more likely to get government stooges that way. The Commons does need a Speaker who will stand up to the executive.

Mr. K, point of order: that's South Yorkshire you're thinking of.

That said, if the producer doesn't want to press charges, I would've thought that would be that.

Edited extra bit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLRna0RRvxo

The stuff about Miliband being attacked and punched by six people with Alex Salmond masks, doesn't make sense or at least The Mirror's account begs a few questions.

"Labour activist Rachel Penn, 42, said: "He was pretty shaken up. It was quite dramatic.

"His path was blocked by two people who were being very aggressive. He was shoved out of the way and couldn't get in the car. "One guy punched Ed in the chest and shut the car door so he couldn't get in."

Labour supporter Neil McEwan said: "The group came out of nowhere. Ed only had four of five steps to get to the car but they set upon him immediately. "He was definitely pushed but he shrugged it off and made his way to the far side of the car.

http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-punched-shoved-protesters-5409428

So his minders were looking out for trouble, looking the other way, incapable of organising a piss up in a brewery? Must have been about as competent as Franz Ferdinand's security team.

No photographs taken by witnesses or minders, waiting driver hadn't noticed people in Alex Salmond masks?

Paul Nuttall on Matt Forde podcast

'When I've done Question Time I've not found anyone to be really objectionable... Except Diane Abbott'

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

Conservative majority looks high to me at 7.8 right now.

I am trying to back the 8.0 :-) Please feel free to accommodate me...

Hah So it was your £300 in at that price :P

The 7.8 is selling fast by the way, will be lay price soon.

Yep, all gone now. Will leave the 8.0 anyhow and probably get matched there - I'd laid the 1.22 NOM to free up the funds...

roserees64 said:

Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored. Secondly, the fact that Tory activists were pretending to be SNP is scraping the barrel in terms of honour.The shabby treatment of Bercow was another example of Tory low and base principles. Who won the discussion is not as important as retaining a sound moral perspective.

What are the flaws in fishers model?

roserees64 said:

Some points to consider, Fisher's analysis is deeply flawed and should be ignored. Secondly, the fact that Tory activists were pretending to be SNP is scraping the barrel in terms of honour.The shabby treatment of Bercow was another example of Tory low and base principles. Who won the discussion is not as important as retaining a sound moral perspective.

Professor Stephen Fisher, who helped produce the very accurate exit poll at the last election.

What are you qualifications and experiences on the polling front?