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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement
A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on 3rd term announcement
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Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?0 -
SNP gain I thinkBob__Sykes said:Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?0 -
Probably SNP gain.Bob__Sykes said:Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?0 -
I think it was Dave said Mr Connarty was standing down at the election, and he said he wasn't, and one of the Nats said something "you wish you had stood down" and "SNP Gain"Bob__Sykes said:Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?0 -
Anyone would think he was still in charge.
Most English and Welsh will believe he is. I'd be very narked if I were Ms Sturgeon.
Or is it a coordinated campaign against SLAB?Scott_P said:0 -
Scott_P said:
SNP gain I thinkBob__Sykes said:Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?
Thanks. Yes, that would make sense.JonathanD said:
Probably SNP gain.Bob__Sykes said:Just catching up on the end of PMQs.
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?
TSE - it was before he asked his question, not after Dave's cock-up.0 -
@JGForsyth: For those on the Tory side who hope that this campaign will be like 1992 all over again, PMQs today was v encouraging http://t.co/ZPXcW3WPR90
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Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub0 -
"A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme"
So not a normal x-section of society then ?0 -
In all the noise of answering the question about going on and on..one honest [non]answer that Cameron gave, that nobody seems to have picked up upon, was when he was asked if he enjoyed the job, and he basically said no.0
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The main downside with Cameron's comments is the speculation it will continually cause during the next term if he continues as Prime Minister. Public opinion is unlikely to shift on something like this.0
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Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!0
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Good afternoon. FTLT, Mike Smithson can't remember recalling anything like it:
"This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares."
This is because the polls are flawed. And the pollsters? Well you all know my views on them.0 -
FPT
I agree that the government would collapse but Salmond won't bring it down before the 2016 Holyrood elections. The very fact that he would be kingmaker in that position is of itself an incentive *not* to bring the house of cards down: it places him in a very powerful position, able to continually extract concessions. Once the SNP force a new election - or once the other parties do, if by-elections take a sufficient toll - all that power melts away.SeanT said:Right now I foresee a tiny Labour plurality, with Prime Minister Miliband forced to rely on the Scot Nats, vote by vote.
This government will likely collape due to inherent instability (i.e. mischievous Alex Salmond) and we'll have a second election within a year.
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The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.0 -
Your ELBOW seems to be concordant with Rod Crosby's sample machine.Sunil_Prasannan said:Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!
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Alex Salmond says he’ll back Labour unconditionally
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/03/Salmond-Miliband-Misery.jpg
" it would look less like partnership and more like a Stephen King novel with Miliband tied to his parliamentary bed by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act"
Coming to a billboard near you...0 -
Not sure the Tories aren't shooting themselves in the foot with all the anti-SNP, anti-Salmond, and therefore by extension, anti-Scottish rhetoric.
The party of the Union harping on about the Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the next UK Government?
I fear this plays into the wrong hands, and also risks pee'ing off what remaining Scots Tories there still are.0 -
On topic, it won't shift any votes by itself, either way. It may have an impact if Tory leadership contenders start positioning themselves, or if the media becomes obsessed with the issue.
I don't honestly see either of those two possibilities happening. The potential contenders will not want to rock the boat over the next month and a half as it would adversely affect their chances in 2015 if Cameron loses while adversely affecting their cabinet prospects after the election if he wins. There's every incentive to play ball. As for the media, while they love the personalities game, there's more than enough else on to keep them occupied, particularly if the potential candidates aren't providing copy to fit that narrative.0 -
Just caught up on PMQs. I find it hard to believe that Labour/Ed/Ed were stupid enough to believe that Osborne's reticence over ruling out a VAT increase was anything but a trap. Surely no one could be that stupid.0
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Ed Miliband at PMQ's....
https://adityagangadharan.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/27ea0-jumbojumbled.jpg?w=7000 -
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.0 -
The SNP and Alex Salmond are very different from Scottishness. Criticizing one does not mean criticizing the other. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the UK government, but there is something very wrong with an anti-UK party having a say in the make-up of the UK government. Not least because they have an incentive in being destructive to the unity of the UK from the very top.Bob__Sykes said:Not sure the Tories aren't shooting themselves in the foot with all the anti-SNP, anti-Salmond, and therefore by extension, anti-Scottish rhetoric.
The party of the Union harping on about the Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the next UK Government?
I fear this plays into the wrong hands, and also risks pee'ing off what remaining Scots Tories there still are.
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http://media.tumblr.com/tumblr_lta21gPm3U1qhy4uu.gifSunil_Prasannan said:Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!
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@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance0
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I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.0 -
This is from the man who tried to convince us that despite having a household income of £500k+ a year, living in a £2 million house, has a kitchen so crap that most students saw it and said even our kitchen is better than that.MaxPB said:Just caught up on PMQs. I find it hard to believe that Labour/Ed/Ed were stupid enough to believe that Osborne's reticence over ruling out a VAT increase was anything but a trap. Surely no one could be that stupid.
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The Lab + SNP Jock-Bloc will be bigger than it is now, thanks to the forthcoming LibDem collapse. With the SNP almost taking the Labour whip, this makes a change of government more likely, not less.0
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That 18% will vote Tory come what may. They have survived Maggie, the poll tax and devolution. Since they only have one MP north of the border I'm also not sure that it matters. The Tories need to consolidate their position in England more than they need to hold onto the one seat in Scotland.Bob__Sykes said:Not sure the Tories aren't shooting themselves in the foot with all the anti-SNP, anti-Salmond, and therefore by extension, anti-Scottish rhetoric.
The party of the Union harping on about the Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the next UK Government?
I fear this plays into the wrong hands, and also risks pee'ing off what remaining Scots Tories there still are.0 -
To infinity - and beyond!Sunil_Prasannan said:Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!
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Conservatives are increasing their lead in seats over Labour on Sporting Index - which surprises me in view of the latest polls.
I've looked at the switching matrix on the recent mega YouGov poll (8000+ respondents 18-25 March). Page 1.
It shows 17% of 2010 Tories intend to vote UKIP. Of these 25% (of the 17%) say they will definitely or may possibly consider voting Tory (Page 3).
I've run two scenarios - one with the 17% sticking with UKIP and one with 25% of them coming back to the Tories:
1. 17% of former Con voters stay with UKIP
.... share .... seats
Con... 33.5%... 258
Lab ...33.5% ...279
LD...9.0% ...34
SNP ...3.8% ...55
Grn ...4.9% ...1
UKIP ...14.7% ...2
2. 25% (of the 17%) go back to Con
.... share .... seats
Con... 35.1%... 273
Lab ...33.5% ...269
LD...9.0% ...29
SNP ...3.8% ...55
Grn ...4.9% ...1
UKIP ...13.1% ...2
It seems to me that the most seats result depends to a large extent on how successful the Tories are in wooing back a chunk of UKIP voters. But it looks from the mega YouGov poll as if only 25% of UKIP voters will even consider it.
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So Labour are going to try and sell no cuts and no tax rises (except for bankers and mansion owners and which has already been spent 20 times over) and that will sort out £90bn of deficit....Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
I guess they are also going to give every household one of these...
http://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/imgLib/20100728_Growingmoneyontrees072810.jpg0 -
Absolutely. If parliament is seriously deadlocked then Lab/Con would have to sink their differences in one guise or another so that Salmond is given no opportunity to work his mischief. There will be enough Labour MPs who will not vote themselves into the trap of becoming dependent on the SNP.JEO said:
The SNP and Alex Salmond are very different from Scottishness. Criticizing one does not mean criticizing the other. There is absolutely nothing wrong with Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the UK government, but there is something very wrong with an anti-UK party having a say in the make-up of the UK government. Not least because they have an incentive in being destructive to the unity of the UK from the very top.Bob__Sykes said:Not sure the Tories aren't shooting themselves in the foot with all the anti-SNP, anti-Salmond, and therefore by extension, anti-Scottish rhetoric.
The party of the Union harping on about the Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the next UK Government?
I fear this plays into the wrong hands, and also risks pee'ing off what remaining Scots Tories there still are.
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And he needs Eck to sign it offFrancisUrquhart said:So Labour are going to try and sell no cuts and no tax rises (except for bankers and mansion owners and which has already been spent 20 times over) and that will sort out £90bn of deficit....
I guess they are also going to give every household one of these...
http://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/imgLib/20100728_Growingmoneyontrees072810.jpg0 -
From reading the relevant Wikipedia article, the Congress Party was directly implicated in those riots. Are you suggesting that UKIP are directly implicated in these death threats? I am naturally opposed to UKIP as I believe we should stay in the European Union and that immigration benefits this country, but the constant unfair treatment of them makes me very sympathetic at times.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.0 -
He should have told Ed.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
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Making it up as they go along more like.TGOHF said:
He should have told Ed.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
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I have this theory, that Dave like most of us, thinks, if he ceases to be PM in May, he'll be gone as Tory leader PDQ.antifrank said:I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.
However if we're getting a inherently unstable SNP + Lab Govt, Dave reckons there might be a second election within 18months.
People I've spoken to across the political spectrum, think if the Tories win the most seats/votes in May but are turfed out by Lab/SNP then a second election shortly will return the Tories 315+ MPs,
And this is his way of hanging on until then..0 -
@jonwalker121: Ed Balls made pledge not to raise NI about an hour after difficult PMQs in which Miliband failed to make same pledge http://t.co/OWSezhmOUGTGOHF said:He should have told Ed.
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Clarkson officially gone....everything else is off the headlines then.0
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What happened to Farage in the pub was an utter disgrace, the Guardian article on it is too. He was the victim there - I'd say exactly the same about any other PPC here too, even Afzal Amin wouldn't have deserved that.
Dan Glass should be ashamed... a pub lunch is NOT the UKIP party conference, no wonder people are put off going into politics with the loons of the far left and right around these days.0 -
For ages, I've been saying UKIP's tone is going to lead to problems.JEO said:
From reading the relevant Wikipedia article, the Congress Party was directly implicated in those riots. Are you suggesting that UKIP are directly implicated in these death threats? I am naturally opposed to UKIP as I believe we should stay in the European Union and that immigration benefits this country, but the constant unfair treatment of them makes me very sympathetic at times.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.
For me it is no surprise they've received the endorsement of Britain First and Nick Griffin in recent months.0 -
The speculation would happen anyway. By the back-end of 2019, he'd have been Tory leader for 14 years and PM for over 9. If he didn't make a statement, there'd be a huge number of questions about his intentions for a third term. This way, while making him a bit of a lame duck, it also much reduces the chances of him being pushed out in a disorganised manner.antifrank said:I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.0 -
BBC running writ large with this long planned announcement.Scott_P said:
@jonwalker121: Ed Balls made pledge not to raise NI about an hour after difficult PMQs in which Miliband failed to make same pledge http://t.co/OWSezhmOUGTGOHF said:He should have told Ed.
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Totally agree. Whatever one thinks of the man he is entitled to go out for lunch with his family, and at that sort of time he should be left alone.Pulpstar said:What happened to Farage in the pub was an utter disgrace, the Guardian article on it is too. He was the victim there - I'd say exactly the same about any other PPC here too, even Afzal Amin wouldn't have deserved that.
Dan Glass should be ashamed... a pub lunch is NOT the UKIP party conference, no wonder people are put off going into politics with the loons of the far left and right around these days.0 -
Unless that's a spoof twitter account , the BBC are barking mad... they were anyway, but this just confirms it.0
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It paves the way for GO. If Dave serves a full second term as PM, neither May nor Boris will be contenders for the job.antifrank said:I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.
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Dancing to Cameron's tune desperately trying to play catch-up whilst being throttled by Alex Salmond. and the campaign proper hasn't even started yet.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
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Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
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At least he hasn’t used his expenses to renovate it!FrancisUrquhart said:
This is from the man who tried to convince us that despite having a household income of £500k+ a year, living in a £2 million house, has a kitchen so crap that most students saw it and said even our kitchen is better than that.MaxPB said:Just caught up on PMQs. I find it hard to believe that Labour/Ed/Ed were stupid enough to believe that Osborne's reticence over ruling out a VAT increase was anything but a trap. Surely no one could be that stupid.
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@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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So why announce it an hour afterwards making it look panicked?Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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Just like Miliband forced Cameron to make his announcement on VAT.SimonStClare said:
Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
But who will voters believe?
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About as believable as the kitchen excuse.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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Farage should be left in peace to have Sunday lunch in a pub. The BBC producer should be allowed to do his job and not be subjected to an assault. Shouldn't need saying, really.SquareRoot said:Unless that's a spoof twitter account , the BBC are barking mad... they were anyway, but this just confirms it.
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"0 -
One suggestion I have seen is that Team Boris were putting it about that Cameron would step down after the EU referendum, which will be held no later than 2017. Now that Cameron has announced that he will not contest the 2020 election, it's plausible that he would stand aside for a new Conservative leader in 2019.antifrank said:I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.
Brown was reportedly furious about Blair's pledge to "serve a full term" in the run-up to the 2005 general election, and I think it makes sense in such a context of Cameron wishing to determine the timing and nature of his departure, rather than having it forced upon him by others.0 -
I'm guessing Cameron was going to announce it if asked about it. Don't think the NI announcement was planned, given how rushed it was.Barnesian said:
Just like Miliband forced Cameron to make his announcement on VAT.SimonStClare said:
Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
But who will voters believe?0 -
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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And on that Bombshell!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Yeah as much as I like Clarkson he needs to sort his life out, sounds like the actions of a man with a drinking/anger problem to me. I noted a comment on here that "Tymon looked like a bad gap year student" on here the other day... talk about beside the point - he's the victim here, not Clarkson.logical_song said:
Farage should be left in peace to have Sunday lunch in a pub. The BBC producer should be allowed to do his job and not be subjected to an assault. Shouldn't need saying, really.SquareRoot said:Unless that's a spoof twitter account , the BBC are barking mad... they were anyway, but this just confirms it.
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"
Still I'll miss Top Gear with the trio but all good things and all that.0 -
Miliband forced Cameron to make his VAT announcement in a way Cameron could never have dreamed had gone so well.Barnesian said:
Just like Miliband forced Cameron to make his announcement on VAT.SimonStClare said:
Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.Scott_P said:@PoliticalYeti: EXCLUSIVE Ed Balls says Labour manifesto will contain pledge not to increase National Insurance
But who will voters believe?
He really couldnt have played it better. If Cameron and Osborne all along have intended to make the pledge, got to give GO a heck of a lot of credit for holding back at the select committee. He held the line, and passed it to Cammo to use in the best possible way at the best possible time.
I felt for Miliband. He built it all up, how he was pleased the PM liked to give straight answers. And he's thinking here is an answer he wont give a straight question to. It's going to be dockside hooker time for my last PMQs.
He asks it. Cameron cant believe his luck. It's like some loony tunes cartoon setup with bugs bunny and porkie pig.
Cameron slickly talks about the number of PMQs hes done and then, bang he gives him the straight answer to the straight question.
It was painful.
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Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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Or the Pakistani military condemned the anti-Bengali attacks in 1971?TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.0 -
Just back bleedin wife had a puncture so got called out just as the bleedinfg last PMQs started...
So presume it was all gaffe-gate.
I see we've got a bad news for dave thread for a change.0 -
They were up to their necks in it.JEO said:
From reading the relevant Wikipedia article, the Congress Party was directly implicated in those riots. .TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.0 -
That's why it's called PMQs!SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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I know the two Eds have problems getting along, but do they never talk to each other?Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
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You are right. It is irritating. Brown used to do it, but that was because he was bad at PMQs, Cameron does it because he likes to rub Milibands nose in it. It would be easy for the Speaker to make a ruling, that the opposition leader is not here to answer questions, and he will not allow them to be asked, or for him to answer them.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
French Accident Investigators expected to hold a press conference at 3pm UK time...0
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Monte Carlo? More of a Montreux man myself!Pulpstar said:
Your ELBOW seems to be concordant with Rod Crosby's sample machine.Sunil_Prasannan said:Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!
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So true - the correct time is a rushed Balls interview just 60 mins after your dear leader has been reamed at PMQs.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
I would imagine that the Labour announcement on National Insurance doesn't extend to Employers' contributions. Has any journalist been awake enough to ask?0
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I'm watching BBC World News coverage of the plane crash near Seyne Les Alpes. Suddenly the crawler just repeats ad nauseam that the BBC will not renew the contract of Jeremy Clarkson.FrancisUrquhart said:Clarkson officially gone....everything else is off the headlines then.
The lead item on the hourly news bulletin was Clarkson.
As you know, most rolling news networks divide their schedule into 'programs'. CNN has 'At this hour', Fox has 'Happening Now', and so on. The BBC World News show covering the crash has the unfortunate name of 'Impact'.
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Prime Ministers Questions? Sounds like he can ask the LotO questions!Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's why it's called PMQs!SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
Meanwhile in the real world Ed gets totally rogered again.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
From what I have heard it was rather good, although I'll catch up with it after work.Scrapheap_as_was said:Just back bleedin wife had a puncture so got called out just as the bleedinfg last PMQs started...
So presume it was all gaffe-gate.
I see we've got a bad news for dave thread for a change.
0 -
Not Quite...Scrapheap_as_was said:Just back bleedin wife had a puncture so got called out just as the bleedinfg last PMQs started...
So presume it was all gaffe-gate.
I see we've got a bad news for dave thread for a change.
PMQs 25/03/15
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I am sure he was. But it is a statement of fact that the LOTO does not answer questions at Prime Minister's Question Time.felix said:
Meanwhile in the real world Ed gets totally rogered again.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
So Clarkson delenda est (for 5 minutes until he and May and Hammond reappear with a lookalike show for twice the money on Sky or somesuch).
Some think the Beeb has done this only ostensibly for waving his fists at some 'lazy Irish cnut' but in reality because Auntie's lefty suits can't bear his politics and worldview. So...I have a rocking great idea:
Kick off the new Top Gear on the BBC with presenters Frankie Boyle, Jimmy Carr and Ricky Gervais. It'd be a riot!0 -
Do you have the daily VIs to 1 dp by the way ?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Monte Carlo? More of a Montreux man myself!Pulpstar said:
Your ELBOW seems to be concordant with Rod Crosby's sample machine.Sunil_Prasannan said:Tory lead in ELBOW across the six VI polls so far this week! 0.1%!
If so could you email me them ?
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One could say the same about the tone of the anti-UKIP advocates in leading to a man's family being harassed during a private lunch in a pub. It is about as reasonable to say the Conservatives and Labour are responsible for that incident as to say UKIP are responsible for the Tweets of Britain First members.TheScreamingEagles said:
For ages, I've been saying UKIP's tone is going to lead to problems.JEO said:
From reading the relevant Wikipedia article, the Congress Party was directly implicated in those riots. Are you suggesting that UKIP are directly implicated in these death threats? I am naturally opposed to UKIP as I believe we should stay in the European Union and that immigration benefits this country, but the constant unfair treatment of them makes me very sympathetic at times.TheScreamingEagles said:
In the same way the Congress Party condemned the anti Sikh attacks in 1984JEO said:
The very article you quoted there had the following line,TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like UKIP's BFFs Britain First are living up to their promises
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.
For me it is no surprise they've received the endorsement of Britain First and Nick Griffin in recent months.0 -
Taking on the Top Gear seat would be like David Moyes taking over at Man U after Sir Awex.0
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Now that is an excellent point. I'll just put on the kettle so I can settle back and enjoy watching it all unravel.Richard_Nabavi said:I would imagine that the Labour announcement on National Insurance doesn't extend to Employers' contributions. Has any journalist been awake enough to ask?
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A fair point. When the Tories promised to repeal Brown's NI insurance rise before the last election and then didn't afterwards, they did put a package together for employers to ameliorate things. Not for employees though.Richard_Nabavi said:I would imagine that the Labour announcement on National Insurance doesn't extend to Employers' contributions. Has any journalist been awake enough to ask?
0 -
Very disappointed with Labour's decision to continue with the Tory VAT rise campaign. That's effectively calling the PM a liar. Also their campaign theme on the NHS grates. Labour have said that their campaign will not be personal and not negative. Frankly at this stage it is relentlessly negative.0
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OR, it could be because nobody is allowed to attack another BBC employee and get away with it.Patrick said:So Clarkson delenda est (for 5 minutes until he and May and Hammond reappear with a lookalike show for twice the money on Sky or somesuch).
Some think the Beeb has done this only ostensibly for waving his fists at some 'lazy Irish cnut' but in reality because Auntie's lefty suits can't bear his politics and worldview. So...I have a rocking great idea:
Kick off the new Top Gear on the BBC with presenters Frankie Boyle, Jimmy Carr and Ricky Gervais. It'd be a riot!
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"0 -
Shouldn't that be 'should not answer'? There must have been been at least one instance in history where the LotO has answered a question asked of him/her.SouthamObserver said:
I am sure he was. But it is a statement of fact that the LOTO does not answer questions at Prime Minister's Question Time.felix said:
Meanwhile in the real world Ed gets totally rogered again.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
A very good long piece by Andrew Marr in The New Statesman. Balanced if with a sense of having a underlying liberal left sympathy.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/andrew-marr-british-politics-broken-centre-cannot-hold
I'd quibble with one or two things. I still think the Union is salvagable if only because we'll muddle through and I'm not convinced Scotland is that far to the left of England. The SNP seemto be left wing when they feel like it. I'm also surprised that he expects enough Tory/Ukip MPs to demand a Euro referendum.0 -
I simply don't believe either of the political parties when they say taxes won't go up. Of the two main parties, I expect Labour to put up taxes more because it is what they do and what they want to do.
As it is they will put up income tax, have a bonus and mansion tax (which will rapidly become a tax on all houses not just £2 mio mansions) and increase taxes on pensions. I expect them to increase NI, introduce some council tax bands at the top end, tax pensions more and maybe even place more restrictions on tax free savings above a certain amount and limit exceptions to inheritance tax. I also expect some moves on CGT and stamp duty. I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if they increased VAT as well.
Labour is not the party you vote for if you want lower taxes. They may as well make a virtue out of necessity rather than try and claim - wholly implausibly - that they can spend more and reduce the deficit without raising tax on more than a few hundred bankers living in posh houses in Chelsea.0 -
I agree. You just can't bully and assualt someone in a workplace and expect a mere slap on the wrist. Unless you're Gordon Brown, I suppose.logical_song said:
OR, it could be because nobody is allowed to attack another BBC employee and get away with it.Patrick said:So Clarkson delenda est (for 5 minutes until he and May and Hammond reappear with a lookalike show for twice the money on Sky or somesuch).
Some think the Beeb has done this only ostensibly for waving his fists at some 'lazy Irish cnut' but in reality because Auntie's lefty suits can't bear his politics and worldview. So...I have a rocking great idea:
Kick off the new Top Gear on the BBC with presenters Frankie Boyle, Jimmy Carr and Ricky Gervais. It'd be a riot!
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"0 -
It's always introduced by speaker Bercow as "Questions to the prime minister".RobD said:
Prime Ministers Questions? Sounds like he can ask the LotO questions!Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's why it's called PMQs!SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
Really? It seems to me that "Let me tell him, Mr Speaker" is about ed's most persistent (and annoying) catch phrase at PMQs.SouthamObserver said:
I am sure he was. But it is a statement of fact that the LOTO does not answer questions at Prime Minister's Question Time.felix said:
Meanwhile in the real world Ed gets totally rogered again.SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
What a frabjous day for the blues. PMQs may not resonate with the general public but ed has sure as hell carpet-bombed his party's morale at exactly the right time. Well done him!0 -
It's a good cop, bad cop routine.Plato said:Anyone would think he was still in charge.
Most English and Welsh will believe he is. I'd be very narked if I were Ms Sturgeon.
Or is it a coordinated campaign against SLAB?
Salmond pretty much does not appear in Scottish media, his only appearances in the last 3 months I can recall being his interviews with BBC and STV politics shows on the day his book launched. Nothing before or since.
Meanwhile Nicola is building a very strong support base, both in Scotland and England. She is already the most popular party leader UK-wide and she's only done two days of public relations in England so far.
Meanwhile the media is too obsessed with Salmond to try to attack Nicola at all. It's a strong strategy and working well.0 -
Ah, 'Speaker Bercow'. How much longer before we do not have to hear those words?Tim_B said:
It's always introduced by speaker Bercow as "Questions to the prime minister".RobD said:
Prime Ministers Questions? Sounds like he can ask the LotO questions!Sunil_Prasannan said:
That's why it's called PMQs!SouthamObserver said:
Statement of fact. Leader of the opposition asks the questions at PMQ, he does not answer them.TGOHF said:
Desperate stuff.Scott_P said:
@BBCNormanS: Labour say Ed Miliband did not rule out Nics rise cos PMQs "not right time" to make announcementSimonStClare said:Looks like Cameron has managed to bounce Balls into this new announcement #winwin.
0 -
Why on earth not? May would only be 63 in 2020 and Boris 56. I think an older Boris might come across as more PM material to the electorate than he does now.SouthamObserver said:
It paves the way for GO. If Dave serves a full second term as PM, neither May nor Boris will be contenders for the job.antifrank said:I've racked my brains trying to think about why David Cameron has decided to announce his plans in this way. I don't believe it was accidental - he's a smart guy.
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.0 -
Have there been England-only polls on Nicola? I wouldn't call two days of PR "building a very strong support base".Dair said:
It's a good cop, bad cop routine.Plato said:Anyone would think he was still in charge.
Most English and Welsh will believe he is. I'd be very narked if I were Ms Sturgeon.
Or is it a coordinated campaign against SLAB?
Salmond pretty much does not appear in Scottish media, his only appearances in the last 3 months I can recall being his interviews with BBC and STV politics shows on the day his book launched. Nothing before or since.
Meanwhile Nicola is building a very strong support base, both in Scotland and England. She is already the most popular party leader UK-wide and she's only done two days of public relations in England so far.
Meanwhile the media is too obsessed with Salmond to try to attack Nicola at all. It's a strong strategy and working well.0
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