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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term anno
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » ICM finds voters totally split by Cameron’s third term annoucement
A new Guardian/ICM poll, just issued, of those planning to watch tomorrow’s C4 leaders’programme finds voters split 38-38 on 3rd term announcement
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https://twitter.com/Andrew_ComRes/status/580642995785064449
Anyone know what was the heckle hurled in the direction of Michael Connarty MP when he was called, which seemed to cause such amusement?
Most English and Welsh will believe he is. I'd be very narked if I were Ms Sturgeon.
Or is it a coordinated campaign against SLAB?
TSE - it was before he asked his question, not after Dave's cock-up.
Police are investigating threatening messages sent to the anti-Ukip protesters who forced the party leader Nigel Farage to flee his local pub on Sunday.
After the demonstration, which the Ukip leader said caused distress to his two youngest children, the activists were sent abuse via text and email, as well as on Twitter and Facebook.
Some of the protesters were sent messages detailing what the senders believed were their addresses and phone numbers, and some messages threatened reprisals. One Facebook post read: “If they think they are safe from being slaughtered, they are not.”
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/police-investigate-ukip-protest-threat-nigel-farage-pub
So not a normal x-section of society then ?
"This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares."
This is because the polls are flawed. And the pollsters? Well you all know my views on them.
'Ukip has distanced itself from the threatening messages. A spokesman said it “in no way” condoned them. “In fact we condemn them. Two wrongs never make a right.”'
It is thus very misleading to say they are 'BFFs'.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/03/Salmond-Miliband-Misery.jpg
" it would look less like partnership and more like a Stephen King novel with Miliband tied to his parliamentary bed by the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act"
Coming to a billboard near you...
The party of the Union harping on about the Scottish MPs having a say in the make-up of the next UK Government?
I fear this plays into the wrong hands, and also risks pee'ing off what remaining Scots Tories there still are.
I don't honestly see either of those two possibilities happening. The potential contenders will not want to rock the boat over the next month and a half as it would adversely affect their chances in 2015 if Cameron loses while adversely affecting their cabinet prospects after the election if he wins. There's every incentive to play ball. As for the media, while they love the personalities game, there's more than enough else on to keep them occupied, particularly if the potential candidates aren't providing copy to fit that narrative.
https://adityagangadharan.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/27ea0-jumbojumbled.jpg?w=700
I don't see it as very relevant for the election. I don't believe that anyone who is a floating voter really cares either way that much.
It makes no odds either way if he loses, so it can only be relevant if he wins.
The main advantage I can see is that it to some extent defuses the hostility that the Conservative right feels towards him in the next Parliament - they don't have all that long to wait until he's gone, so why invest political capital in getting rid of him?
And it allows him to step down gracefully after any hypothetical EU election, regardless of the result.
I've looked at the switching matrix on the recent mega YouGov poll (8000+ respondents 18-25 March). Page 1.
It shows 17% of 2010 Tories intend to vote UKIP. Of these 25% (of the 17%) say they will definitely or may possibly consider voting Tory (Page 3).
I've run two scenarios - one with the 17% sticking with UKIP and one with 25% of them coming back to the Tories:
1. 17% of former Con voters stay with UKIP
.... share .... seats
Con... 33.5%... 258
Lab ...33.5% ...279
LD...9.0% ...34
SNP ...3.8% ...55
Grn ...4.9% ...1
UKIP ...14.7% ...2
2. 25% (of the 17%) go back to Con
.... share .... seats
Con... 35.1%... 273
Lab ...33.5% ...269
LD...9.0% ...29
SNP ...3.8% ...55
Grn ...4.9% ...1
UKIP ...13.1% ...2
It seems to me that the most seats result depends to a large extent on how successful the Tories are in wooing back a chunk of UKIP voters. But it looks from the mega YouGov poll as if only 25% of UKIP voters will even consider it.
I guess they are also going to give every household one of these...
http://www.commonwealthfoundation.org/imgLib/20100728_Growingmoneyontrees072810.jpg
However if we're getting a inherently unstable SNP + Lab Govt, Dave reckons there might be a second election within 18months.
People I've spoken to across the political spectrum, think if the Tories win the most seats/votes in May but are turfed out by Lab/SNP then a second election shortly will return the Tories 315+ MPs,
And this is his way of hanging on until then..
Dan Glass should be ashamed... a pub lunch is NOT the UKIP party conference, no wonder people are put off going into politics with the loons of the far left and right around these days.
For me it is no surprise they've received the endorsement of Britain First and Nick Griffin in recent months.
But who will voters believe?
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"
Brown was reportedly furious about Blair's pledge to "serve a full term" in the run-up to the 2005 general election, and I think it makes sense in such a context of Cameron wishing to determine the timing and nature of his departure, rather than having it forced upon him by others.
Still I'll miss Top Gear with the trio but all good things and all that.
He really couldnt have played it better. If Cameron and Osborne all along have intended to make the pledge, got to give GO a heck of a lot of credit for holding back at the select committee. He held the line, and passed it to Cammo to use in the best possible way at the best possible time.
I felt for Miliband. He built it all up, how he was pleased the PM liked to give straight answers. And he's thinking here is an answer he wont give a straight question to. It's going to be dockside hooker time for my last PMQs.
He asks it. Cameron cant believe his luck. It's like some loony tunes cartoon setup with bugs bunny and porkie pig.
Cameron slickly talks about the number of PMQs hes done and then, bang he gives him the straight answer to the straight question.
It was painful.
So presume it was all gaffe-gate.
I see we've got a bad news for dave thread for a change.
The lead item on the hourly news bulletin was Clarkson.
As you know, most rolling news networks divide their schedule into 'programs'. CNN has 'At this hour', Fox has 'Happening Now', and so on. The BBC World News show covering the crash has the unfortunate name of 'Impact'.
PMQs 25/03/15
Some think the Beeb has done this only ostensibly for waving his fists at some 'lazy Irish cnut' but in reality because Auntie's lefty suits can't bear his politics and worldview. So...I have a rocking great idea:
Kick off the new Top Gear on the BBC with presenters Frankie Boyle, Jimmy Carr and Ricky Gervais. It'd be a riot!
If so could you email me them ?
"It is understood a report into the so-called ‘fracas’ at a North Yorkshire hotel, concluded that presenter spent 20 minutes verbally abusing producer Oisin Tymon, before launching a 30 second physical assault on him. [Daily Telegraph]"
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/andrew-marr-british-politics-broken-centre-cannot-hold
I'd quibble with one or two things. I still think the Union is salvagable if only because we'll muddle through and I'm not convinced Scotland is that far to the left of England. The SNP seemto be left wing when they feel like it. I'm also surprised that he expects enough Tory/Ukip MPs to demand a Euro referendum.
As it is they will put up income tax, have a bonus and mansion tax (which will rapidly become a tax on all houses not just £2 mio mansions) and increase taxes on pensions. I expect them to increase NI, introduce some council tax bands at the top end, tax pensions more and maybe even place more restrictions on tax free savings above a certain amount and limit exceptions to inheritance tax. I also expect some moves on CGT and stamp duty. I would not be in the slightest bit surprised if they increased VAT as well.
Labour is not the party you vote for if you want lower taxes. They may as well make a virtue out of necessity rather than try and claim - wholly implausibly - that they can spend more and reduce the deficit without raising tax on more than a few hundred bankers living in posh houses in Chelsea.
What a frabjous day for the blues. PMQs may not resonate with the general public but ed has sure as hell carpet-bombed his party's morale at exactly the right time. Well done him!
Salmond pretty much does not appear in Scottish media, his only appearances in the last 3 months I can recall being his interviews with BBC and STV politics shows on the day his book launched. Nothing before or since.
Meanwhile Nicola is building a very strong support base, both in Scotland and England. She is already the most popular party leader UK-wide and she's only done two days of public relations in England so far.
Meanwhile the media is too obsessed with Salmond to try to attack Nicola at all. It's a strong strategy and working well.