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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four

SystemSystem Posts: 11,002
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four polls have their parties level pegging

This is extraordinary. In all the time I’ve been covering polling I cannot recall a sequence like the one we are seeing this week. Four polls on the trot all reporting LAB and CON with the same vote shares.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • First!
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124
    "For neutrals (and are there any?) this is wonderful election to watch. Uncertainty makes it a much more absorbing spectacle."

    Neutrals? Only you Mike :):):)
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "Jack" Dozen" Projection Countdown :

    75 hours
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)
  • Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    Moving average chart of the 100 most recent YouGov polls. Click to enlarge...

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    As I always say, much of the Labour vote is, in fact, an anti-Tory vote. So the key to the election is the extent to which anti-Tory voters are motivated enough to kick the Tories out. It may be worth seeing the budget in that context. As generally agreed, it was "Meh" - so did little to animate the anti-Tories.

    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    I suspect that many people will be focussed upon the forthcoming Easter holidays, and will only begin to notice the subsequent election once these are over.

    That said, some people must be paying attention, and my chart below does appear to point towards a definitive slippage away from UKIP and the Greens, in favour of Tory/Labour/LibDem.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

    Spot on - but the bit I cannot fathom is the whole Scotland effect - who will come off best there - Labour or Tories? If the SNP look like doing as well as we think how will this play in the rUK? Has Salmond over-egged the haggis? And how will this all impact after May on the UK economy? If you haven't bought your £s for your Costa hols yet it's almost too late :)
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    On every question except the voting intention the Tories are at least 10 points ahead of labour, including

    Who is the better PM
    Who is the better chancellor
    Will the economy be better under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Would you be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Will the country be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Is the country better or worse than in 2010

    The voting intention of 35/35 dosent make sense. Labour are going to be slaughtered.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    felix said:

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

    Spot on - but the bit I cannot fathom is the whole Scotland effect - who will come off best there - Labour or Tories? If the SNP look like doing as well as we think how will this play in the rUK? Has Salmond over-egged the haggis? And how will this all impact after May on the UK economy? If you haven't bought your £s for your Costa hols yet it's almost too late :)

    The SNP will come off best. Clearly, though, on a UK-wide basis the Labour collapse in Scotland favours the Tories. I doubt the Salmond stuff will have much direct impact on votes in England.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    We have so many polls these days that such unlikely coincidences become inevitable. Give it another decade at this polling frequency and the two-party shares will be identical, rather than just equal, in a run of polls, at some time or another.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    edited March 2015

    On every question except the voting intention the Tories are at least 10 points ahead of labour, including

    Who is the better PM
    Who is the better chancellor
    Will the economy be better under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Would you be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Will the country be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Is the country better or worse than in 2010

    The voting intention of 35/35 dosent make sense. Labour are going to be slaughtered.

    As far as I can see, under the supplementaries Labour is getting pretty close to its voting intention. That says labour voters think they'll be OK under Labour, but voters of other parties think they will be better off under the Tories. If you are still a LibDem, for example, the chances are that you think the government - and by extension Cameron/Osborne - has done OK.

  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    It looks like the pollsters read PB as well as the Political Parties campaign teams.

    I watch the behaviour and attitudes of the Party Hierarchies to get a feeling of what they think is actually happening from their own inhouse polls and door knocking results. I suspect that they are all getting different answers from the Pollsters but are not quite sure how to proceed.

    The parties cannot be critical of the published Polls, as since the media pay for them, the politicians would be torn to shreds as unbelievers in the truth, honour and respect of the press (sorry, I couldn't stop giggling for several minutes after re-reading the paragraph).
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Gadfly said:

    I suspect that many people will be focussed upon the forthcoming Easter holidays, and will only begin to notice the subsequent election once these are over.

    That said, some people must be paying attention, and my chart below does appear to point towards a definitive slippage away from UKIP and the Greens, in favour of Tory/Labour/LibDem.

    That's what people said about Christmas. Then they said it about Valentine's Day.

    'Just wait, after May day people will start paying attention and the Tory vote will reappear'
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171

    On every question except the voting intention the Tories are at least 10 points ahead of labour, including

    Who is the better PM
    Who is the better chancellor
    Will the economy be better under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Would you be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Will the country be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Is the country better or worse than in 2010

    The voting intention of 35/35 dosent make sense. Labour are going to be slaughtered.
    The British public are recognising the remarkable performance of this Tory led government. In 2010 did anyone on here predict the economy would be in this position? The government approval in the latest you gov poll is now in its best position since 2010 . Despite this it is very likely that the British public will not vote to return such an excellent government and will throw the country into the clutches of labour supported by the snp. Go figure
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)

    Your equation looks like a second GE within a year to me.
  • ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Dair said:

    The internet is going to be unbearable with mewling Kippers once their manifesto hits and 10% seems like paradise.

    FPT - oh my, the lack of self awareness in this comment is breathtaking. Nationalist heal thyself....
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    currystar said:

    On every question except the voting intention the Tories are at least 10 points ahead of labour, including

    Who is the better PM
    Who is the better chancellor
    Will the economy be better under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Would you be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Will the country be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Is the country better or worse than in 2010

    The voting intention of 35/35 dosent make sense. Labour are going to be slaughtered.
    The British public are recognising the remarkable performance of this Tory led government. In 2010 did anyone on here predict the economy would be in this position? The government approval in the latest you gov poll is now in its best position since 2010 . Despite this it is very likely that the British public will not vote to return such an excellent government and will throw the country into the clutches of labour supported by the snp. Go figure

    If that happens it will be as a direct result of the first past the post voting system that the Tories strongly advocate.

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)

    Your equation looks like a second GE within a year to me.
    I hope so, more betting chances.

    Although it does require a turkey to vote for Xmas. Much more likely is a SNP flounce during the 2016 Holyrood elections
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    The last two YG sub-samples have had the SNP-Lab gap down to 5 and 2.

    They seem to have these two day aberrations in some of their data, but worth keeping an eye on, just in case.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,669
    Gadfly said:

    I suspect that many people will be focussed upon the forthcoming Easter holidays, and will only begin to notice the subsequent election once these are over.

    That said, some people must be paying attention, and my chart below does appear to point towards a definitive slippage away from UKIP and the Greens, in favour of Tory/Labour/LibDem.

    Another UKIP candidate quits.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-32038485
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,074
    O/T: Carnyx: Vanilla mail for you.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    On those arguments I would have thought the over/under markets on UKIP seats a better bet. If UKIP cannot hold Rochester then they would be heading for a single seat.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    currystar said:

    On every question except the voting intention the Tories are at least 10 points ahead of labour, including

    Who is the better PM
    Who is the better chancellor
    Will the economy be better under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Would you be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Will the country be better off under cameron and osborne or miliband and balls
    Is the country better or worse than in 2010

    The voting intention of 35/35 dosent make sense. Labour are going to be slaughtered.
    The British public are recognising the remarkable performance of this Tory led government. In 2010 did anyone on here predict the economy would be in this position? The government approval in the latest you gov poll is now in its best position since 2010 . Despite this it is very likely that the British public will not vote to return such an excellent government and will throw the country into the clutches of labour supported by the snp. Go figure

    If that happens it will be as a direct result of the first past the post voting system that the Tories strongly advocate.

    They advocate it because under PR there would be 90 odd kippers ;)
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)

    Your equation looks like a second GE within a year to me.
    Yep! The amount of work and time that the Westminster Politicians will have to put in, running a minority, or a rag tag C&S government will have all sides wanting a clean workable majority. Suggest people read up about the government in the late 70's and the pressures involved. I watched it, not pretty.

    What will happen after May 8 if there is a change in the leadership of the losing party/ies running into the autumn election. More betting opportunities?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    The advocates of a strong swingback must now be concerned, especially those that have backed it with money. Whilst the Tories have clearly recovered from the dog days of mid term the effect to date is minimal compared with previous Parliaments.

    I do not find this surprising. Con/Labour switchers have always been non existent. In fact Tory support has been remarkably solid losing less than 10% points at its worst. The downside of this is there is not much to swing back and what there is has largely occurred now.

    As Mike has been pointing out throughout this Parliament the most important polling information has been and remains the switch of the red Liberals to Labour. This is the source of almost all of Labour's anaemic recovery from 2010. They have persuaded almost no one else. This will hurt the Tories in marginals with a significant 2010 Lib Dem vote waiting to be squeezed.

    Will this be enough to offset the Scottish losses and make Labour the largest party? I suspect so but it will be close. Whether that actually matters in terms of putting a government together is another question.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Mortimer said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

    Which one of those parties do you see letting the Tories into power aka electoral suicide?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Mortimer said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

    Consider the scenario where CON get somewhere around 290, Lab somewhere around 260, Cameron forms the government, the LAB+SNP vote down their Queen's speech. One suspects such an action from the Scottish separatists would do their campaign a power of good, roundly being blamed in England for saddling us with an unwanted government, especially if we then see a load of "Mr Miliband was forced to postpone his policy of X because he was unable to gain support from Mr Salmond and his nationalists" type of headlines.

    Bring down Cameron + Cripple Miliband = "Go away Scotland" mandate at the next election for anyone brave enough to moot the policy.
  • RE the comments on my previous post. I think Southam Observer makes the good point that people tell pollsters pretty accurately which Party they support, but are much less honest about how likely they are to vote. After all, it's costless to appear "civic" and claim to be 10/10 in their voting likelihood.

    I have actually bet on the election outcome (first time ever I've placed a bet - and I'm 66 next month :( ) on the basis that lefties will disproportionately stay at home (or peel off to the Greens) whilst the Tories pick up soft Kippers. The latter seems to be happening already, which is sooner than I (and, I think, Tory strategists) expected.
  • ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    On those arguments I would have thought the over/under markets on UKIP seats a better bet. If UKIP cannot hold Rochester then they would be heading for a single seat.
    There are at least two seats where imho UKIP stand a better chance of winning than at Rochester. Which over/under markets do you have in mind specifically which you consider offer better value than the bet I have suggested?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    RE the comments on my previous post. I think Southam Observer makes the good point that people tell pollsters pretty accurately which Party they support, but are much less honest about how likely they are to vote. After all, it's costless to appear "civic" and claim to be 10/10 in their voting likelihood.

    I have actually bet on the election outcome (first time ever I've placed a bet - and I'm 66 next month :( ) on the basis that lefties will disproportionately stay at home (or peel off to the Greens) whilst the Tories pick up soft Kippers. The latter seems to be happening already, which is sooner than I (and, I think, Tory strategists) expected.

    I wouldn't even go that far, people vote tactically, why not poll tactically to "send a message" to your party of choice. Lots of Conservatives will be polling kipper because they want Cameron to take a tougher line on immigration, but probably won't vote kipper. Lots of Labour supporters probably poll Green because they want Miliband to be more anti-austerity, but probably will vote Labour.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191
    edited March 2015
    Freggles said:

    Gadfly said:

    I suspect that many people will be focussed upon the forthcoming Easter holidays, and will only begin to notice the subsequent election once these are over.

    That said, some people must be paying attention, and my chart below does appear to point towards a definitive slippage away from UKIP and the Greens, in favour of Tory/Labour/LibDem.

    That's what people said about Christmas. Then they said it about Valentine's Day.

    'Just wait, after May day people will start paying attention and the Tory vote will reappear'
    That is not necessarily my view, but it's a not an unreasonable theory. In 2010 the Tory vote began to pull ahead 5 weeks prior to the election, but then of course the TV debates changed everything.

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762
    There have been a lot of comments about the possibility of a second election. If the government of the losers hangs together for any period of time it will be a government that the Tories would be going into without David Cameron, their largest single asset. Just a thought.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Freggles said:

    Mortimer said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

    Which one of those parties do you see letting the Tories into power aka electoral suicide?
    No such govt felling event required - Dave is current PM, when he retains most votes he will likely continue in a minority govt when it turns out that Mili would not form a govt with SNP (I imagine, under the threat of most of his Scottish party, and the Northern England MPs threatening to defect).
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Freggles said:

    Mortimer said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

    Which one of those parties do you see letting the Tories into power aka electoral suicide?
    It's not so much that, they might hug each other tightly for the reason you suggest, but its going to look like complete chaos on the news and in the papers, with endless bickering and refusing to support each others policies, what would the economic policy for such a grouping look like for example ? Then you have to consider how many by-elections in the average year, 5-6 ? Kippers would have a field day, and the majority of the government, such as it it, would evaporate in fairly short order.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    On those arguments I would have thought the over/under markets on UKIP seats a better bet. If UKIP cannot hold Rochester then they would be heading for a single seat.
    There are at least two seats where imho UKIP stand a better chance of winning than at Rochester. Which over/under markets do you have in mind specifically which you consider offer better value than the bet I have suggested?
    Under 4.5 UKIP seats at Ladbrokes is on 1.83 too.

    Which would be a safer bet; if Rochester is lost then the other seats are unlikely to come in.

    But I think Rochester will be a kipper hold.
  • PeterCPeterC Posts: 1,274
    edited March 2015



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    @isam of this parish is offering 10-11, though I have no idea how much liability he wants to rack up on it.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Indigo said:

    Freggles said:

    Mortimer said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    If the leader of such a disparate group of magic money tree-ers is already considered weak, just how do you think they would look when every appearance of their name in a headline is preceded or followed by 'propped up' or 'facing rebellion' or 'having to make a u turn to keep office'.

    You may be constitutionally correct - it is unlikely to be de facto accurate. Whoever wins the most seats will be PM.

    Which one of those parties do you see letting the Tories into power aka electoral suicide?
    It's not so much that, they might hug each other tightly for the reason you suggest, but its going to look like complete chaos on the news and in the papers, with endless bickering and refusing to support each others policies, what would the economic policy for such a grouping look like for example ? Then you have to consider how many by-elections in the average year, 5-6 ? Kippers would have a field day, and the majority of the government, such as it it, would evaporate in fairly short order.
    It would be a minority government and would likely have to pass individual laws with the help of the Lib Dems and SNP. Similar to what will happen if Tories form government
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,762

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    DavidL said:

    There have been a lot of comments about the possibility of a second election. If the government of the losers hangs together for any period of time it will be a government that the Tories would be going into without David Cameron, their largest single asset. Just a thought.

    I am not sure we can draw that conclusion. Just because Cameron out polls his party, that doesn't necessarily mean other people in the party can't out poll their party either. Boris almost certainly can, and probably more so than Cameron does. There are several able performers in the Conservative party that might well outperform Dave, but the party as a whole is weighed down by a group of duck-ponders and bufton tuftons.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

    I think it'll come down to whether Labour's new found voters actually turn out.

    Tories have every reason to, and are pretty solid. Much of Labour's new support didn't vote Labour in GE2010, and are highly sceptical about Miliband. So their sole motivation is to stop the Tories.

    I'm not sure that's enough, but we'll see.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Yesterday's yougov internals show that red kippers have come home but Conservative are gaining more ex Labour than the reds and the 2010 Lib Dem gap has narrowed a bit.

    The Scottish weighting was slightly dubious too (Yes yes I know it isn't weighted for Scotland to be accurate...) - overall I read the Conservatives slightly ahead from last night's Yougov but obviously that's swamped by MoE on one poll.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    There have been a lot of comments about the possibility of a second election. If the government of the losers hangs together for any period of time it will be a government that the Tories would be going into without David Cameron, their largest single asset. Just a thought.

    That's the case either way, though, isn't it? If he is the PM of a minority government that cannot last the course he is out, because that is his second term done. Alternatively, if the Tories lose office in May, he will stand down or be forced out.

  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

    I think it'll come down to whether Labour's new found voters actually turn out.

    Tories have every reason to, and are pretty solid. Much of Labour's new support didn't vote Labour in GE2010, and are highly sceptical about Miliband. So their sole motivation is to stop the Tories.

    I'm not sure that's enough, but we'll see.

    The Red LDs are not the issue; they will turn out and are very motivated anti-Tories. The issue is much more the traditional Labour vote. I can see parts of it doing what many traditional Tories did in 97 - stay at home.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all and unless something dramatic is said, I would expect today's final PMQs to be overshadowed by the French plane crash and the ongoing tragedy.

    Alex Salmond is really doing his best for the Tory campaign in England. His announcement that the SNP would block a minority Tory government should go down like a bag of sick in the southern shires.
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Over the longer term, UKIP's ascendancy never really affected the Tories.

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    I agree, but where does that leave DC? His off the cuff remark that he wouldn't stand for a third election will be thrown back at him, plus all the shifting alliances being formed behind him in the race to replace him whether he says that it was a full term parliament he was talking about, or he just walks.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    It would largely depend on how UKIP holds together. The internal contradictions may become very overt over the 5 years.

    And with a Euroreferendum out of the way (assuming a Tory govt), and Cameron replaced, what would a UKIP party offer?
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    And then you notice Alex Salmond sitting next to him smirking at PMQs. And then we start hearing headline about how this or that policy was being shelved because the SNP wouldn't support it.

    The SNP are left leaning, but broadly pro-business, I wonder what they will make of the sort of big government, politically correct, red-tape nightmares that Hattie regularly tries to foist on the country.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    In 2020 we may well have had the referendum and made the decision, which will have shot UKIP’s fox. Unless of course a) Ed wins, doesn’t hold a referendim but his government (thanks to Salmond?) lasts the course . If that happens and there’s still thought to be an issue with “europe” then they might do well, although a significant share of their current vote may well have died off!
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited March 2015

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    It would largely depend on how UKIP holds together. The internal contradictions may become very overt over the 5 years.

    And with a Euroreferendum out of the way (assuming a Tory govt), and Cameron replaced, what would a UKIP party offer?
    The IndiRef is out the way, I didn't notice it slowing the SNP down.

    If Cameron wins the EU referendum by say 55/45 (that number sounds familiar) it is going to be the rallying cry for every "we was robbed" grievance merchant within 1000 miles (that sounds familiar as well). The 45% who wanted OUT might decide to try and get it through the ballot box instead. Conversely five years of EdM euro-idiocy will stiffen their vote quite considerably I would expect.

    In 2020 we may well have had the referendum and made the decision, which will have shot UKIP’s fox. Unless of course a) Ed wins, doesn’t hold a referendim but his government (thanks to Salmond?) lasts the course . If that happens and there’s still thought to be an issue with “europe” then they might do well, although a significant share of their current vote may well have died off!

    I don't by the died off bit, there will be just as many people with blue rinses in five years time as there are now, different people, but lots of people get more conservative, and more insular as they get older.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    In light of a post I made last week about differences in attitudes between Scotland and the south of England, I found this amusing. (regional differences)

    Where does my personality fit in?
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31816926
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    When you are totting up combinations of seats to work out a potential government, remember to look at the actual seats. The best Ashcroft has achieved from a Labour point of view is 39 out of their top 50 Tory targets. Given that from tomorrow the sitting MPs will be available to campaign on a daily basis and many (like Esther McVeigh, Nicky Morgan and Anna Soubry) will achieve a fair amount of media coverage, it is possible we will see Labour leads in these marginals start to fall and as with Worcester, disappear.
  • Paul_Mid_BedsPaul_Mid_Beds Posts: 1,409
    Gadfly said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Over the longer term, UKIP's ascendancy never really affected the Tories.

    Simple, Free Image and File Hosting at MediaFire
    That's because a good proportion of the ex tory Kippers stopped bothering to vote after the ERM fiasco - until now.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    Indigo said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    And then you notice Alex Salmond sitting next to him smirking at PMQs. And then we start hearing headline about how this or that policy was being shelved because the SNP wouldn't support it.

    The SNP are left leaning, but broadly pro-business, I wonder what they will make of the sort of big government, politically correct, red-tape nightmares that Hattie regularly tries to foist on the country.
    If Salmond leads a big block of SNP MP’s then he’s made it plain he won’t do a Clegg. He’ll be on the benches opposite and we’ll have the curious spectatcle of 60% of the Opposition benches shouting abuse at the PM at PMQ’s and 20% of it cheering. The other 20% will be the MP’s (mostly female) who are apallled at that somewhat juvenile behaviour!
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Quite.. How big is the Labour awkward squad these days ? Must be 30ish MPs.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited March 2015
    Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Callaghan and Wilson managed it for 5 years. In very trying circumstances.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    300 seats makes a Conservative government very likely, in my view.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    Sean_F said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    300 seats makes a Conservative government very likely, in my view.
    Well yes, unless the Lib Dems have suffered complete wipeout.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Labour have benefitted from a reduction in Green support. The Conservatives from a reduction in UKIP support.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765
    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    It would largely depend on how UKIP holds together. The internal contradictions may become very overt over the 5 years.

    And with a Euroreferendum out of the way (assuming a Tory govt), and Cameron replaced, what would a UKIP party offer?
    The IndiRef is out the way, I didn't notice it slowing the SNP down.

    If Cameron wins the EU referendum by say 55/45 (that number sounds familiar) it is going to be the rallying cry for every "we was robbed" grievance merchant within 1000 miles (that sounds familiar as well). The 45% who wanted OUT might decide to try and get it through the ballot box instead. Conversely five years of EdM euro-idiocy will stiffen their vote quite considerably I would expect.

    In 2020 we may well have had the referendum and made the decision, which will have shot UKIP’s fox. Unless of course a) Ed wins, doesn’t hold a referendim but his government (thanks to Salmond?) lasts the course . If that happens and there’s still thought to be an issue with “europe” then they might do well, although a significant share of their current vote may well have died off!

    I don't by the died off bit, there will be just as many people with blue rinses in five years time as there are now, different people, but lots of people get more conservative, and more insular as they get older.
    Even if the Conservatives form a minority government, they may not have the votes to carry a referendum bill.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
  • Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Callaghan and Wilson managed it for 5 years. In very trying circumstances.
    Indeed. And quite who would a Tory opposition be minded to attack, given that the Party hasn't won an election outright since 1992, its donors are pro-European and its activists pretty much all Kippers in posh shoes?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Good morning, everyone.

    Aye, the plane crash will overshadow everything. Tricky for Miliband. He won't want to have the final PMQs just be sombre, but diving in without any mention of the crash would look crass. Probably a 2/4 or 3/3 split, I'd guess, with the latter questions of a party political nature.
  • ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    On those arguments I would have thought the over/under markets on UKIP seats a better bet. If UKIP cannot hold Rochester then they would be heading for a single seat.
    There are at least two seats where imho UKIP stand a better chance of winning than at Rochester. Which over/under markets do you have in mind specifically which you consider offer better value than the bet I have suggested?
    Under 4.5 UKIP seats at Ladbrokes is on 1.83 too.

    Which would be a safer bet; if Rochester is lost then the other seats are unlikely to come in.

    But I think Rochester will be a kipper hold.
    Yes, I agree that <4.5 UKIP seats bet at 1.83 with Laddies looks like good value - it doesn't seem to feature on Oddschecker but I found it hidden away on the bookie's own site.

    Should the Tories fail to retake R & S then they are in very serious trouble. I'd expect them to secure a comfortable majority of between 1,500 - 3,000.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    300 seats makes a Conservative government very likely, in my view.
    Agreed. DUP will have about 8-9 seats and I can't see the Lib-Dems falling below 30 in reality so I can't see a party with 40 seats less taking power in that scenario.

    Either we'll have Coalition 2.0 (still an absolute majority in that scenario) or a Tory minority with confidence and supply.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    It would largely depend on how UKIP holds together. The internal contradictions may become very overt over the 5 years.

    And with a Euroreferendum out of the way (assuming a Tory govt), and Cameron replaced, what would a UKIP party offer?
    The IndiRef is out the way, I didn't notice it slowing the SNP down.

    If Cameron wins the EU referendum by say 55/45 (that number sounds familiar) it is going to be the rallying cry for every "we was robbed" grievance merchant within 1000 miles (that sounds familiar as well). The 45% who wanted OUT might decide to try and get it through the ballot box instead. Conversely five years of EdM euro-idiocy will stiffen their vote quite considerably I would expect.

    In 2020 we may well have had the referendum and made the decision, which will have shot UKIP’s fox. Unless of course a) Ed wins, doesn’t hold a referendim but his government (thanks to Salmond?) lasts the course . If that happens and there’s still thought to be an issue with “europe” then they might do well, although a significant share of their current vote may well have died off!

    I don't by the died off bit, there will be just as many people with blue rinses in five years time as there are now, different people, but lots of people get more conservative, and more insular as they get older.
    Even if the Conservatives form a minority government, they may not have the votes to carry a referendum bill.
    If a minority Tory government introduces a referendum bill that cannot get through, who will be blamed?

  • We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    edited March 2015

    I can't see the Lib-Dems falling below 30 in reality

    Crikey - 20 maybe, can definitely see them below 30.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    Sean_F said:

    Indigo said:

    Indigo said:

    DavidL said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    So much Kipper support comes from NOTA and DNV that their decline in areas where they are not thought to be at the races is hardly a surprise. They reach parts of the electorate which the other parties don't and frequently ignore or belittle. There is not a lot of incentive to return to any of the mainstream parties for those in this category.
    I suspect the kippers are much more handicapped by the appearance of not being in contention for many seats than any image problem they might have. There might be any number of people that like the cut of Farage's jib, but if the kippers are currently fourth in their seat, they are unlikely to give him their vote while there is an important Ed/Dave contest which appears too close to call.

    If the kippers come second in 50-100 seats this time around as seems likely, GE2020 is going to be a completely different kettle of fish.
    It would largely depend on how UKIP holds together. The internal contradictions may become very overt over the 5 years.

    And with a Euroreferendum out of the way (assuming a Tory govt), and Cameron replaced, what would a UKIP party offer?
    The IndiRef is out the way, I didn't notice it slowing the SNP down.

    If Cameron wins the EU referendum by say 55/45 (that number sounds familiar) it is going to be the rallying cry for every "we was robbed" grievance merchant within 1000 miles (that sounds familiar as well). The 45% who wanted OUT might decide to try and get it through the ballot box instead. Conversely five years of EdM euro-idiocy will stiffen their vote quite considerably I would expect.

    In 2020 we may well have had the referendum and made the decision, which will have shot UKIP’s fox. Unless of course a) Ed wins, doesn’t hold a referendim but his government (thanks to Salmond?) lasts the course . If that happens and there’s still thought to be an issue with “europe” then they might do well, although a significant share of their current vote may well have died off!

    I don't by the died off bit, there will be just as many people with blue rinses in five years time as there are now, different people, but lots of people get more conservative, and more insular as they get older.
    Even if the Conservatives form a minority government, they may not have the votes to carry a referendum bill.
    If a minority Tory government introduces a referendum bill that cannot get through, who will be blamed?

    Tim Farron.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    300 seats makes a Conservative government very likely, in my view.
    Well yes, unless the Lib Dems have suffered complete wipeout.
    Tories 300, Lib Dems 20 and DUP 9, plus a few UKIP and away you go.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,765

    Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Callaghan and Wilson managed it for 5 years. In very trying circumstances.
    Callaghan and Wilson almost had a majority. Labour on 260 seats would be 63 short.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842
    @Sean_F I can't see Labour in with only 260, but if they are in with say 270 then I can't see the next election being anything other than a huge Conservative majority.
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516

    Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game,



    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Callaghan and Wilson managed it for 5 years. In very trying circumstances.
    And what happened in 1979?

    Apart from which, while I know that Westminster is a very different place from the 70's, where MP's in hospital (some of whom were literally on their death beds) were sent by ambulance to cross into the Westminster courtyard so that their vote could be counted.

    While technology has brought more changes in the chances of MP's not getting caught by the respective whips offices in rebellions before they happen.

    All whilst looking after their own constituency work, trying to sort out who the powerbrokers are and what opportunities there are for their own advancement.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008

    Morning all

    Very odd polling indeed this week - I’m not normally one for conspiracy theories but…! :)

    You may have a point. Reasons to distrust the polls have often been discussed here, and I suspect the pollsters themselves have far less faith in their product than they had in past elections.

    The polls seem reasonable to me. The country is pretty evenly divided. But the key to the election is voter motivation. And right now just about the only motivation Labour voters have to vote is to prevent a Tory majority. With EdM the alternative, will that really be enough? I can't see it myself.

    On the other hand, if you are a Tory voter the government has delivered for you by and large over the last five years. Why wouldn't you go out and vote Tory again?

    I think it'll come down to whether Labour's new found voters actually turn out.

    Tories have every reason to, and are pretty solid. Much of Labour's new support didn't vote Labour in GE2010, and are highly sceptical about Miliband. So their sole motivation is to stop the Tories.

    I'm not sure that's enough, but we'll see.

    The Red LDs are not the issue; they will turn out and are very motivated anti-Tories. The issue is much more the traditional Labour vote. I can see parts of it doing what many traditional Tories did in 97 - stay at home.

    I'm not sure I fully agree. If they were that motivated to stop the Tories, surely they would all have voted Labour in GE2010.

    But they didn't. And it's not as if Nick Clegg was an obvious left-winger back then either, certainly not compared to Charles Kennedy.

    I think it's much more complicated than that, but can see why Labour want to bank on it.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Sean_F said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Labour have benefitted from a reduction in Green support. The Conservatives from a reduction in UKIP support.
    The first, certainly. I'm still to be convinced by the latter.
  • isamisam Posts: 40,729

    ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    You can have 10/11 with me
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,008
    Sean_F said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    300 seats makes a Conservative government very likely, in my view.
    295+ seats means the Conservatives stay in office, but, given the number and composition of the Lib Dems post election, I can't see that government being particularly "Conservative".

    310 is the magic number to be sure of carrying the EU referendum Bill. 315 seats if they want to implement the vast majority of their programme.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 31,715
    edited March 2015
    We’ll probably, IMHO, be looking at a Tory minority government. Whether Labour would be able to be looking for the kill is probably the question. If they don’t win, will Ed go, voluntarily or not, or will they go in for the kill? If Labour fight among themselves, then a Tory minority would manage in the same way as Wilson/Callaghan.
    If the Tories loses seats in May and there’s a Labour minority government then I suspect that “fighting like ferrets in a sack” will be a mild way of describing the Tory benches! They might actually split.
  • @Andrew_ComRes: ComRes/Daily Mail voter reaction to Cameron's 2 terms comments: 45% 'honest' 28% 'arrogant' http://t.co/8BcRm8byMM
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 23,559

    We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    meanwhile down in dockside land US sailors are negotiating how many pounds they'll get for a dollar

    cough cough

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11492825/What-happens-on-a-night-out-with-5000-American-sailors.html
  • Edin_RokzEdin_Rokz Posts: 516
    Indigo said:

    Edin_Rokz said:

    PeterC said:



    EdM + Scotland + improving economy + cautious campaign = Tories getting most seats, surely.

    The Tories can only throw it away from here.

    Why do we think most seats gives the tories anything ?

    323 is the effective number. If Labour / Greens / SNP / SDLP / Respect add up to 323 then Ed is PM. Doesn't matter if the Tories are on 300 seats vs 260 Labour.

    Media can spin a coalition of the losers / moral mandate meme all they want, at the end of the day it's just the numbers. With the Lib Dems dying, even staying 300+ isn't going to cut it for the tories.

    I don't see a plausible result that doesn't have Milliband in power.

    (I have no skin in the game, no longer live in the UK, I'm just about the betting)
    You are right that it is the numbers which in the end count. But so does political common sense. The coalition of the losers you postulate would be a desperately unstable government which would be portrayed as having been foisted on the English. Labour is going to be hammered in Scotland. Taking office in the circumstances you envisage would lead to a fairly swift second election in which they would be hammered in England too. Just because you are offered a poison chalice does not mean you have to drink of it.

    The poison chalice comes with ministerial red boxes, big pay rises, limos and the ability to spend tax payers money on patronage for their interest groups. Pretty sure they'd drink from that chalice.

    I'm not sure the 2nd election hammering is a foregone conclusion either, Miliband may be difficult to envision as PM, but when you see him in a government limo driving from the Palace to Downing St it becomes a whole lot easier.
    Disagree, trying to run a minority or very small majority Westminster government is very difficult for all concerned.

    The deals to keep your own MP's in line, while getting backing for C&S from minor parties and disillusioned members of the other side is a nightmare while the strain on your own MP's puts them in hospital/coffins etc.. An attack minded opposition would make being in government a living hell.
    Quite.. How big is the Labour awkward squad these days ? Must be 30ish MPs.
    And how big is the Tory one? DC, GO et al are not popular and there are too many who would like to stick a knife into their backs. When are the Ides of March anyway?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited March 2015
    I think that circumstances could easily create a joint 330-350 bloc of Tory/SNP that would drive through a pact on EV4EL and Super Devo-Max.

    It's in the mutual interest.
  • Those bonuses must be big - being spent AGAIN

    norman smith‏@BBCNormanS·54 secs54 seconds ago
    Labour @JimForScotland says will pay for 5,000 Scottish jobs with £1 billion from tax on City bonuses
  • We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    meanwhile down in dockside land US sailors are negotiating how many pounds they'll get for a dollar

    cough cough

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11492825/What-happens-on-a-night-out-with-5000-American-sailors.html
    I understand the good ladies are offering a "Lib Dem May 2015" experience.
  • If no Party attains 300 seats either the pressure for a Grand Coalition will build and build (because of the 5 Year Act) or almost the first thing the Parliament will do will be to repeal the 5YA - or even both.

    If we have, say, Tory 290, Labour 260 &c then I would expect Miliband to offer a Grand Coalition & Cameron to refuse it (and regret it later, but, hey, that's life).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,842

    We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    We saw something similar during the Indyref with a four or five polls in a row giving no a 4% lead

    meanwhile down in dockside land US sailors are negotiating how many pounds they'll get for a dollar

    cough cough

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/defence/11492825/What-happens-on-a-night-out-with-5000-American-sailors.html
    Rachel McDonald (00:40)'s mum has warned her.
  • isam said:

    ***** Betting Post *****

    My tip of the week suggestion this time is for the Tories to recapture the Rochester & Strood seat they lost last November after Mark Reckless defected to UKIP and successfully defended the seat in the subsequent by-election with a modest majority of a little over 2,000 votes.

    The recent polls are suggesting that UKIP has lost a significant share, perhaps as much as a third of their support since then, added to which the Tories will benefit considerably from the inevitably very much higher turnout in the forthcoming General Election (65% in 2010), compared with the 50% who voted at the by-election.

    Taken together therefore, Reckless looks likely to be roundly defeated in six weeks time and on this basis the best available odds of 5/6 (1.83 decimal) on a Tory win from those nice people at SkyBet appear to offer sound value.

    As ever DYOR.

    You can have 10/11 with me
    Reaches for his betting notes.... what was my bet again?
  • GadflyGadfly Posts: 1,191

    Sean_F said:

    Interestingly, UKIP's relative decline in these polls does not seem to have disproportionately benefited the Tories.

    Labour have benefitted from a reduction in Green support. The Conservatives from a reduction in UKIP support.
    The first, certainly. I'm still to be convinced by the latter.
    The LibDems also appear to have lost some support in favour to UKIP, which appears to be returning.

    I question whether the Kippers are simply returning to their former polarisations as the election approaches, or whether they have noticed the disaster that a populist party has foisted upon Greece. Front National and Podemus seem to be in similar decline.

This discussion has been closed.