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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As Dave and Ed limber up for their final PMQs the last four

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    Voters split over David Cameron's decision to rule out third term

    Guardian/ICM poll finds 38% of respondents believe PM was right to impose a term limit on himself and 38% think he was wrong

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/voters-split-over-david-camerons-decision-to-rule-out-third-term
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Labour source on NI rise "there's absolutely no need to raise National Insurance". No need, no plans, but...don't rule it out #Hoist #Petard
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TGOHF said:

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m7 minutes ago
    Labour says it will continue with Tory VAT bombshell posters even though Cameron has just categorically ruled out a rise #pmqs

    Seems a shame not to do so as they've been printed off and paid for - what's another lie? :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Do you think Kippers will stymie his previous vote this time around? They ambushed Labour. IIRC wasn't EdM planning a victory lap until the morning of the horror result?

    I'll be watching it closely too.

    Plato said:

    Is Mr Galloway standing again?

    Didn't watch PMQs but having just checkd the reaction on the BBC it seems Cameron did his usual thing of not bothering to anwser the questions put to him. On a different note I see the reaction on here from Tories was that it was yet another stellar peformance by Dave and I'll give you this, he's good at tub thumping and boosting morale on his own side. But succeeding in politics involves persuading the waverers not simply preaching to the converted. Dave seems to have a 35% strategy, he just doesn't realise it.

    I'm not a tory,I've posted on here when Ed as had a good PMQ's,just reporting how I saw it.

    Indeed he is plato,but how can you not vote for this Guy.

    http://www.ukip-bradford.org.uk/tags/bradford_west
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    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,011

    Alistair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Sounds bleak for Ed. But I predict that no voters will care and the polls will be unmoved until we really get going.

    I think Ed will be ruling out a NI tax increase very shortly, if he doesn't, then the Tory attack lines really kick up a notch.
    £150k rate of tax up to 50p is Labour's plan isn't it ?
    I think so.

    I read somewhere on the reasons why the Tories went along with the big increases on the personal allowance, as it made the national insurance contributions look even larger on the average payslip.

    So they could use this line of attack in 2015.
    I've always found it slightly flabbergasting the way the rate of Employee NI gets cut from 12% to 2% when you move to the 40% income tax rate. It effectively means you only have a marginal 10% tax rise rather than 20% on your higher earnings.

    That's a feature, not a bug.
    Indeed, it used to be zero. However aligning the NI higher limit and 40% tax band is fairly recent I think.

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    NEWSFLASH: A load of rabid Tories think David Cameron did brilliantly at PMQ's shock. Tories announce no rise in VAT should they win the election. History points to what actually happens next.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,125

    NEWSFLASH: A load of rabid Tories think David Cameron did brilliantly at PMQ's shock. Tories announce no rise in VAT should they win the election. History points to what actually happens next.

    Tories win the election?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Plato said:

    Do you think Kippers will stymie his previous vote this time around? They ambushed Labour. IIRC wasn't EdM planning a victory lap until the morning of the horror result?

    I'll be watching it closely too.

    Plato said:

    Is Mr Galloway standing again?

    Didn't watch PMQs but having just checkd the reaction on the BBC it seems Cameron did his usual thing of not bothering to anwser the questions put to him. On a different note I see the reaction on here from Tories was that it was yet another stellar peformance by Dave and I'll give you this, he's good at tub thumping and boosting morale on his own side. But succeeding in politics involves persuading the waverers not simply preaching to the converted. Dave seems to have a 35% strategy, he just doesn't realise it.

    I'm not a tory,I've posted on here when Ed as had a good PMQ's,just reporting how I saw it.

    Indeed he is plato,but how can you not vote for this Guy.

    http://www.ukip-bradford.org.uk/tags/bradford_west
    No,I think labour on they own doing a great job.

    http://www.yorkshirestandard.co.uk/news/bradford-west-labour-candidate-amina-ali-confirms-resignation-10366/

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Printed already? I'd be very surprised. Has anyone in poster display noticed block booking of key sites yet?

    How much money does Labour have? In 2010, they used the media to push a single poster = then a car crashed into a bus stop.

    And let's not forget Cameron as Gene Hunt...

    TGOHF said:

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m7 minutes ago
    Labour says it will continue with Tory VAT bombshell posters even though Cameron has just categorically ruled out a rise #pmqs

    Seems a shame not to do so as they've been printed off and paid for - what's another lie? :)
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Hello Mike :smile:

    NEWSFLASH: A load of rabid Tories think David Cameron did brilliantly at PMQ's shock. Tories announce no rise in VAT should they win the election. History points to what actually happens next.

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Voters split over David Cameron's decision to rule out third term

    Guardian/ICM poll finds 38% of respondents believe PM was right to impose a term limit on himself and 38% think he was wrong

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/voters-split-over-david-camerons-decision-to-rule-out-third-term

    Another ICM poll?
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626

    NEWSFLASH: A load of rabid Tories think David Cameron did brilliantly at PMQ's shock. Tories announce no rise in VAT should they win the election. History points to what actually happens next.

    I am intrigued by this line of attack. In effect it is saying the Tories lie; don't believe them. But doesn't this simply invite the same inspection of labour's pledges and broken promises?

    Won't this just put undecideds off completely and depress turnout?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    And the winner is...

    CCHQPress: No straight answers from @Ed_Miliband- refused THREE times to rule out a rise in NI, the jobs tax #SameOldLabour http://t.co/McjLtl4YNf
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Damn you TSE!

    ELBOW now shows a Tory lead of 0.1%, when we include the Times Mega Poll!
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    Voters split over David Cameron's decision to rule out third term

    Guardian/ICM poll finds 38% of respondents believe PM was right to impose a term limit on himself and 38% think he was wrong

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/25/voters-split-over-david-camerons-decision-to-rule-out-third-term

    Another ICM poll?
    It's an instant response poll, bit like we saw in the debates of past.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    isam said:

    Cameron won that easily, but I find it a bit intellectually dishonest for the prime minister of a coaltion to be taunting the opposition for them possibly being in a future coalition because 'they can't win on their own'

    Its politically astute though.
    How intellectually dishonest is it for Farage to say we can repeal the race relations act? How much of a liar is he to say UKIP are colour blind.
    As a party they are completely colour blind. Just as I would hope the Tories and Labour are.

    All three parties (as well as the Lib Dems) contain small numbers of racists and homophobes. The important point is that they do not remain part of the party structure when the are exposed.

    How is Ken Gregory by the way? Still happily serving as a Tory councillor in Thanet?
    I do not give a monkey's for Ken Gregory or anybody who makes crass comments like that. He was suspended from the Tory group at the time and should never have been readmitted no matter how pious an apology. He is not fit to serve as a politician.
    Pointing out that there are odious morons in the country is hardly an excuse for saying as UKIP do that we can safely repeal the race relations act. All that dog whistle does is make the ones who would like to see it abolished salivate wag their tails and run and vote for you. It is I repeat intellectually dishonest. A dishonesty shouted out by UKIP's leader, not some oaf of a local Councillor.
    Good luck and good riddance to that vote - UKIP are welcome.
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    Damn you TSE!

    ELBOW now shows a Tory lead of 0.1%, when we include the Times Mega Poll!

    Why am I getting damned?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @faisalislam: Cons point to this 14 year old Obs article by @bbckamal and @gabyhinsliff as showing NI is Miliband's "favourite tax" http://t.co/uIplVHP9nt
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    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
    I think the days of large expensive billboards are over - in fact I have a sneaky suspicion the posters we see on the web and their numerous Micky takes will never leave the digisphere
    Plato said:

    Printed already? I'd be very surprised. Has anyone in poster display noticed block booking of key sites yet?

    TGOHF said:

    James Chapman (Mail) ‏@jameschappers 7m7 minutes ago
    Labour says it will continue with Tory VAT bombshell posters even though Cameron has just categorically ruled out a rise #pmqs

    Seems a shame not to do so as they've been printed off and paid for - what's another lie? :)
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    NEWSFLASH: A load of rabid Tories think David Cameron did brilliantly at PMQ's shock. Tories announce no rise in VAT should they win the election. History points to what actually happens next.

    So the New Statesman are also rabid Tories, who knew?

    PMQs review: Cameron's surprise pledge not to raise VAT floors Miliband

    The Labour leader was caught unawares by the PM's promise not to increase the tax.

    http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/pmqs-review-camerons-surprise-pledge-not-raise-vat-floors-miliband
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Using Rod Crosby's tool with a bit of artistic license, I get Tories with a lead of 0.03
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    Poor Hortence, even Kevin Maguire called it for Dave, is he rabid Tory as well now?

    https://twitter.com/Kevin_Maguire/status/580707017893023744
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Was that after 3000000000000000000 Monte Carlos?
    Pulpstar said:

    Using Rod Crosby's tool with a bit of artistic license, I get Tories with a lead of 0.03

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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311

    Damn you TSE!

    ELBOW now shows a Tory lead of 0.1%, when we include the Times Mega Poll!

    Why am I getting damned?
    Only kidding!

    But Labour had a lead of 0.5% so far this week, until you pointed out the Times poll!
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Plato said:

    Was that after 3000000000000000000 Monte Carlos?

    Pulpstar said:

    Using Rod Crosby's tool with a bit of artistic license, I get Tories with a lead of 0.03

    More of a Montreaux man myself :lol:
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,470
    edited March 2015

    Damn you TSE!

    ELBOW now shows a Tory lead of 0.1%, when we include the Times Mega Poll!

    Why am I getting damned?
    Only kidding!

    But Labour had a lead of 0.5% so far this week, until you pointed out the Times poll!
    So me getting damned turned out to be Blasphemous rumours?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited March 2015
    Plato said:

    Was that after 3000000000000000000 Monte Carlos?

    Pulpstar said:

    Using Rod Crosby's tool with a bit of artistic license, I get Tories with a lead of 0.03

    I do wish the pollsters would give their VI to 1 dp though. Would make analysis more accurate.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @VickiYoung01: The popcorn's ready for last #PMQs with 1st time voters in @Everymancinema. Most have never watched it before. http://t.co/8yytqoG4xd

    @VickiYoung01: Our 1st time voters see a clear win for Cameron at #pmqs. They all think he put Miliband on back foot by answering question on VAT
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    MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    new thread

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    Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 30,951

    isam said:

    Cameron won that easily, but I find it a bit intellectually dishonest for the prime minister of a coaltion to be taunting the opposition for them possibly being in a future coalition because 'they can't win on their own'

    Its politically astute though.
    How intellectually dishonest is it for Farage to say we can repeal the race relations act? How much of a liar is he to say UKIP are colour blind.
    As a party they are completely colour blind. Just as I would hope the Tories and Labour are.

    All three parties (as well as the Lib Dems) contain small numbers of racists and homophobes. The important point is that they do not remain part of the party structure when the are exposed.

    How is Ken Gregory by the way? Still happily serving as a Tory councillor in Thanet?
    I do not give a monkey's for Ken Gregory or anybody who makes crass comments like that. He was suspended from the Tory group at the time and should never have been readmitted no matter how pious an apology. He is not fit to serve as a politician.
    Pointing out that there are odious morons in the country is hardly an excuse for saying as UKIP do that we can safely repeal the race relations act. All that dog whistle does is make the ones who would like to see it abolished salivate wag their tails and run and vote for you. It is I repeat intellectually dishonest. A dishonesty shouted out by UKIP's leader, not some oaf of a local Councillor.
    Good luck and good riddance to that vote - UKIP are welcome.
    The point you are so willfully ignoring (what a surprise) is that your party - who apparently are so much better than UKIP when it comes to this sort of thing - did indeed let him stay as a TORY councillor and stand again as a TORY councillor in the last elections.

    Of course you are such a bloody hypocrite that you ignore this and instead pretend that UKIP is the racist and homophobic party and that the Tories are somehow better than all the rest when it comes to this. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    You're attitude is shameful and hypocritical - as I will continue to enjoy pointing out.
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This, apparently, is a big Scottish Labour team:

    Peter Higgins ‏@PeterWHiggins · 51m51 minutes ago
    Big @UsdawUnion #LabourDooorstep team out in Falkirk today for @Karen4Falkirk & @scottishlabour #Win2015

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA8dcnBWYAA2NDH.jpg
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,311
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Was that after 3000000000000000000 Monte Carlos?

    Pulpstar said:

    Using Rod Crosby's tool with a bit of artistic license, I get Tories with a lead of 0.03

    I do wish the pollsters would give their VI to 1 dp though. Would make analysis more accurate.
    I calculate ELBOW to 2dp (though I always Tweet or post here to 1 dp)
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,419
    SeanT said:

    Right now I foresee a tiny Labour plurality, with Prime Minister Miliband forced to rely on the Scot Nats, vote by vote.

    This government will likely collape due to inherent instability (i.e. mischievous Alex Salmond) and we'll have a second election within a year.

    I agree that the government would collapse but Salmond won't bring it down before the 2016 Holyrood elections. The very fact that he would be kingmaker in that position is of itself an incentive *not* to bring the house of cards down: it places him in a very powerful position, able to continually extract concessions. Once the SNP force a new election - or once the other parties do, if by-elections take a sufficient toll - all that power melts away.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    Will the tories "Jobs Tax Bombshell" poster be released before or after their "Ed as Salmond's poodle" cartoon?

    Could go either way

    Tory poster depicting Salmond (with Ed in his pocket?) sat astride a tax thermonuclear bombshell as it plummets to earth.
    'Dear Ed' chalked on the side perhaps?
    http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/almost-everything-in-dr-strangelove-was-true
    http://farscape.wikia.com/wiki/Dr._Strangelove
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    antifrank said:

    This, apparently, is a big Scottish Labour team:

    Peter Higgins ‏@PeterWHiggins · 51m51 minutes ago
    Big @UsdawUnion #LabourDooorstep team out in Falkirk today for @Karen4Falkirk & @scottishlabour #Win2015

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CA8dcnBWYAA2NDH.jpg

    I doubt many constituencies have more than this number on a regular basis out working.
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    FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    isam said:

    Cameron won that easily, but I find it a bit intellectually dishonest for the prime minister of a coaltion to be taunting the opposition for them possibly being in a future coalition because 'they can't win on their own'

    ...

    How is Ken Gregory by the way? Still happily serving as a Tory councillor in Thanet?
    I do not give a monkey's for Ken Gregory or anybody who makes crass comments like that. He was suspended from the Tory group at the time and should never have been readmitted no matter how pious an apology. He is not fit to serve as a politician.
    Pointing out that there are odious morons in the country is hardly an excuse for saying as UKIP do that we can safely repeal the race relations act. All that dog whistle does is make the ones who would like to see it abolished salivate wag their tails and run and vote for you. It is I repeat intellectually dishonest. A dishonesty shouted out by UKIP's leader, not some oaf of a local Councillor.
    Good luck and good riddance to that vote - UKIP are welcome.
    The point you are so willfully ignoring (what a surprise) is that your party - who apparently are so much better than UKIP when it comes to this sort of thing - did indeed let him stay as a TORY councillor and stand again as a TORY councillor in the last elections.

    Of course you are such a bloody hypocrite that you ignore this and instead pretend that UKIP is the racist and homophobic party and that the Tories are somehow better than all the rest when it comes to this. Nothing could be further from the truth.

    You're attitude is shameful and hypocritical - as I will continue to enjoy pointing out.
    You can't read.
    The tories brought in the same sex marriage act. The tories are not proposing to abolish the race relations act. Its the tory party that has taken a step forward away from 1950.
    Do you support the abolition of the race relations act? Would you vote for a party that would abolish the race relations act? What do you think of a party leader who would propose to abolish the race relations act? Why do you think people would vote for a party that wants to abolish the race relations act? Is it intellectually honest to pretend that it can be abolished because it is not needed? The example you quote and we can quote endless others shows that it is still needed. We all know why, like all his other dog whistles, Farage said it. You are the hypocrite for pretending otherwise.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    French Accident Investigators expected to hold a press conference at 3pm UK time...
This discussion has been closed.