Another triumph for social services. The boy they wanted to stay in the NHS hospital and essential die quietly is now pronounced cancer free after receiving treatment everyone swore would do him no good, and after jailing his parents for trying to take him to the treatment that has apparently saved his life.
Clearly it suits the Tories to talk up Salmond controlling Miliband, just as it suits Labour to talk up the Tories raising VAT.
One has a basis in fact, the other is just a groundless Labour smear....
Groundless in the sense that the last two times the Tories won an election they put up VAT after saying that they wouldn't?
It is, of course, demonstrably false that the only way Labour can form a government after May would be to do a deal with the SNP.
So if the Tories will put up VAT "because they did it before", I take it you will accept that it is a similar given that Labour will feck the economy and leave the number in work lower than they inherited?
Thank you for that confirmation.
I have no idea, but it is a perfectly reasonable argument for the Tories to make.
The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.
I thought you had won saddo, yet you seem a bit glum.
Only glum because Scotland is clearly another country, clearly doesn't want to be part of the UK, and yet couldn't get its act together and leave at the Indy Ref, and now we have to put up with the Nats mithering for another decade until you get another referendum and hopefully do it right next time.
Well they managed to scare enough people scared about their pensions , union jacks etc to just hold on , but it was only a stopgap.
This report estimates that leaving the EU would cost Britain between £18 and 50 billion a year. A tighter range than yesterday's report from Open Europe.
I reckon we'll make £20billion a year more, feel free to re-tweet it.
You'll need to show your workings first.
A back of a fag packet might suit some but the Open Europe think tank has published a few more details than that. Founded in the real world. It points out that to make money outside of the EU would require policies that would 'make Thatcher look like a socialist'.
That is going to be required sooner or later anyway, because those are to sorts of policies in the countries we are competing against. We can afford a another decade of smug warm feeling and crap productivity if we are lucky, but after that its going to be a fight for survival.
Open Europe point out that free trade would need free movement of labour. To get the best out of leaving the EU we would need lots of immigration. We could be like Singapore with Singapore's levels of totalitarianism.
Clearly it suits the Tories to talk up Salmond controlling Miliband, just as it suits Labour to talk up the Tories raising VAT.
One has a basis in fact, the other is just a groundless Labour smear....
Groundless in the sense that the last two times the Tories won an election they put up VAT after saying that they wouldn't?
In the same way that every Labour government has left office with a high national debt than when it came to power, and worse unemployment.
Not in the same way at all, even if your charges are accepted, because the Conservatives must have known they were planning to put up VAT, and must therefore have been economical with the actualite during the campaign. Twice.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
'Once in a generation' not mean anything to you? I doubt you'll be so keen for Indy by 2050.
I, as a voter, get to decide when there will be another referendum. Not Alex Salmond or anyone else other than any individuals capacity as a voter. Salmond's Call To Action was perfectly logical, not a promise and not a declaration. It was what it was - a Call to Action.
You know this. Southam Observer knows this. Most of the Loyalists who make the claim know this. It doesn't change a thing.
The SNP will offer a Referendum at the 2016 Holyrood election and they will win a Majority in Holyrood. At that point it is just a question of the date. Nothing you can do will stop this. Nothing Westminster can do will stop this.
Thats what Ian Smith thought in Rhodesia. That turned out well. Scotland can only hold another referendum on independence if a Westminster act authorising it is passed. Organising an illegal referendum and declaring independence off the back of it is Treason
It would mean Salmond passing an Oliver Twist Act. 'please sir can I have some more'.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
This report estimates that leaving the EU would cost Britain between £18 and 50 billion a year. A tighter range than yesterday's report from Open Europe.
I reckon we'll make £20billion a year more, feel free to re-tweet it.
You'll need to show your workings first.
A back of a fag packet might suit some but the Open Europe think tank has published a few more details than that. Founded in the real world. It points out that to make money outside of the EU would require policies that would 'make Thatcher look like a socialist'.
That is going to be required sooner or later anyway, because those are to sorts of policies in the countries we are competing against. We can afford a another decade of smug warm feeling and crap productivity if we are lucky, but after that its going to be a fight for survival.
Open Europe point out that free trade would need free movement of labour. To get the best out of leaving the EU we would need lots of immigration. We could be like Singapore with Singapore's levels of totalitarianism.
Yes.
Or we can be bankrupt.
Tough choice.
(Incidentally you can only immigrate to Singapore other than on a tourist visa if you have a job, if you lose your job, you have to leave, if you can stay employed for 5 years, you get citizenship)
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
Another triumph for social services. The boy they wanted to stay in the NHS hospital and essential die quietly is now pronounced cancer free after receiving treatment everyone swore would do him no good, and after jailing his parents for trying to take him to the treatment that has apparently saved his life.
Front page of The Sun. This might be a bigger story than Salmond preaching to the SNP choir, if anyone runs with it.
"On the Curtice projections, Labour would in fact lose all but one – Glasgow North East – of its existing seats. The other seat it would win, East Dumbartonshire, would be picked up from the Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson as a result of her party’s collapse."
I would be very very surprised if labour pick up east Dunbartonshire.
I saw Salmond's interview yesterday. He was funny polite and engaging. To stick up the Daily Mail and pretend that it reflects anything close to reality is a new low for Mike.
Desperate times require desperate measures , we are at Lord Haw Haw situation.
I suppose we're going to have toget your permission to post after May 8 :-)
Alan, One of the first sensible posts this morning
On Curtice’s alternative projection, which takes into account the SNP’s disproportionate surge in Labour’s heartlands, the SNP would snatch 53 of Scotland’s 59 seats.
The three other parties would split the remaining six equally – with two seats apiece. The extraordinary implication is that Scottish Labour would be left with no more representation than the Scottish Tories, who have been semi-extinct at Westminster since 1997.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
As a Tory in favour of electoral reform, I'm delighted to report more and more of my fellow Tories are becoming in favour of electoral reform.
They are working on the lazy assumption that all UKIP voters are ex Tories who would give the Tories their second preferences.
Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.
No, lets ignore the front page of the most widely read online newspaper in the world, that's a much better idea. The SNP don't like it, who cares what the other 60m people in the country think.
Only fools and dullards take that toilet paper seriously , and americans do not have a vote in the election
You do really hate everyone without a sporran don't you.
LOL< if you base anything on the Daily Heil your opinions are warped
Mr. Observer, let us leave aside the Satanic awfulness of PR for a moment - why do you think the effluence of Beelzebub which is PR would save the union?
Clearly it suits the Tories to talk up Salmond controlling Miliband, just as it suits Labour to talk up the Tories raising VAT.
One has a basis in fact, the other is just a groundless Labour smear....
Groundless in the sense that the last two times the Tories won an election they put up VAT after saying that they wouldn't?
In the same way that every Labour government has left office with a high national debt than when it came to power, and worse unemployment.
Not in the same way at all, even if your charges are accepted, because the Conservatives must have known they were planning to put up VAT, and must therefore have been economical with the actualite during the campaign. Twice.
Labour should know that their business model is broken. It has the same consequences every time they implement it.
That Britain is fecked. More precisely, that the poorest of Britain are fecked. They must know this will be the outcome of what is in their manifesto. But they repeatedly go ahead and do it anyway. And then have the audacity to proclaim they are the party that stands up for the poorest in society.
Ignoring that in many instances, it is Labour that has punched them to the floor in the first place.
Leaving tribal loyalties aside I'm genuinely excited to see what this will do to UK democracy post 7th May (assuming these Scottish VIs follow through and there doesn't seem to be a reason they won't). There is a whiff of major change in the air.
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.
I disagree. Its not about Salmond at all, its taken as read he will have most of Scotland, its about Miliband and the damage appearing to be beholden to the SNP will do to Labour in the rest of the UK. This matters to the SNP to the extent that Labour is damaged enough by weakness stories that there is a CON/LD coalition which then ignores the SNP for 5 years.
No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.
Precisely.
Glad you make the point. If this turns the English voters off labour and gives the tories a majority then Salmond has shot himself in the foot. The clear move of the SNP to the far left ought to help the tories in Scotland as well. Ultimately I still think this attitude could undo the SNP surge.
LOL< you really are up on your knowledge on Scotland, next you will be talking Tory surges
I saw Salmond's interview yesterday. He was funny polite and engaging. To stick up the Daily Mail and pretend that it reflects anything close to reality is a new low for Mike.
Desperate times require desperate measures , we are at Lord Haw Haw situation.
I suppose we're going to have toget your permission to post after May 8 :-)
Alan, One of the first sensible posts this morning
Another triumph for social services. The boy they wanted to stay in the NHS hospital and essential die quietly is now pronounced cancer free after receiving treatment everyone swore would do him no good, and after jailing his parents for trying to take him to the treatment that has apparently saved his life.
Front page of The Sun. This might be a bigger story than Salmond preaching to the SNP choir, if anyone runs with it.
People on here were backing the hospital/police rather than the parents who have saved their child's life by taking action. Incredible but true
Local factors and personal votes could ride to the rescue of some Labour MPs, and the SNP could still undershoot much more widely if many of those Scots – 66% in Monday’s poll – who now insist that they are certain to turn out fail to do so on the day.
So it won't require an extraordinarily high turnout either...
And looking at the Daily Mail front pages - we're into rightwing press meltdown phase. The polls haven't shifted in the way rightwing press editors have decreed.
So now we're witnessing the final desperate Hail Mary lurches - rebellious Scots must be crushed! Absolute self interested lunacy by the Right.
Not the voters problem if your precious Tories are not popular enough to win an outright majority. And this is the voting system you favoured in the AV referendum, remember?
Mr. Observer, let us leave aside the Satanic awfulness of PR for a moment - why do you think the effluence of Beelzebub which is PR would save the union?
Because the true wishes of Scottish voters would be represented at Westminster. The SNP would get less than 30 seats, instead of over 50.
Leaving tribal loyalties aside I'm genuinely excited to see what this will do to UK democracy post 7th May (assuming these Scottish VIs follow through and there doesn't seem to be a reason they won't). There is a whiff of major change in the air.
There is a huge opportunity in the offing to rework the entire UK constitutional settlement. It will be ignored and we will rumble on until the entire thing falls down.
If in, for argument's sake, 50 seats the SNP candidate gets most votes then 50 SNP MPs *is* a true reflection of what the Scottish people want. I simply do not buy the argument that PR represents what people want and FPTP does not.
Mr. Eagles, if that happened it'd be Lab and (informally) the SNP. Catastrophic for the Lib Dems and disappointing for UKIP. Not great for the blues, but 272 is a respectable point for rebuilding, unlike 2001 and 2005 when they only had around 190-200 or so.
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Danny Alexander Gordon Birtwistle Annette Brooke (standing down, replacement Vikki Slade) Jeremy Browne (standing down, replacement Rachel Gilmour) Sir Malcolm Bruce (standing down, replacement Christine Jardine) Lorely Burt Sir Menzies Campbell (standing down, replacement Tim Brett) Michael Crockart Lynne Featherstone Stephen Gilbert David Heath (standing down, replacement David Rendel) John Leech Tessa Munt Alan Reid Sir Robert Smith, Bt. Ian Swales Jo Swinson Sarah Teather (standing down, no replacement candidate yet) David Ward Jenny Willott Simon Wright
Up against it (evens to 2/1)
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen) Duncan Hames Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson) Sir Nick Harvey Michael Moore Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow Andrew George John Hemming Julian Huppert Mark Hunter Charles Kennedy Stephen Lloyd Dan Rogerson Adrian Sanders Mike Thornton Mark Williams Roger Williams Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
If in, for argument's sake, 50 seats the SNP candidate gets most votes then 50 SNP MPs *is* a true reflection of what the Scottish people want. I simply do not buy the argument that PR represents what people want and FPTP does not.
Mr. Eagles, if that happened it'd be Lab and (informally) the SNP. Catastrophic for the Lib Dems and disappointing for UKIP. Not great for the blues, but 272 is a respectable point for rebuilding, unlike 2001 and 2005 when they only had around 190-200 or so.
We disagree.
If the Tories do not get most seats it's farewell Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.
Mr. Observer, unless there's a very rickety, unstable government (numbers forecast by Thrasher would be too stable) then I agree Cameron's gone. Osborne may well remain.
And looking at the Daily Mail front pages - we're into rightwing press meltdown phase. The polls haven't shifted in the way rightwing press editors have decreed.
So now we're witnessing the final desperate Hail Mary lurches - rebellious Scots must be crushed! Absolute self interested lunacy by the Right.
Not the voters problem if your precious Tories are not popular enough to win an outright majority. And this is the voting system you favoured in the AV referendum, remember?
The irony being that an unreformed Tory party with the kippers largely still on-board, showing a bit more eurosceptic leg, and with the same benefits of a recovering economy and reducing deficit would be in a clear winning position. So the only reason Labour is in the running, is because Dave is trying to make the Conservative Party like Blair's Labour but without Brown's economics.
The beauty of the SNP score with ICM is it has all the same pull back factors that create the lowish UKIP scores in England... so they must be over 43% in the 'raw'
A Labour election candidate has been forced to apologise to a Tory MP for trolling her with “demeaning” and “racial” slurs.
Treasury minister Priti Patel turned on her Labour rival for the seat of Witham in Essex after a string of obnoxious tweets and campaign leaflets.
And she revealed her anger to SunNation after Labour admitted their man John Clarke had gone too far.
In one tweet, Mr Clarke called the popular Ms Patel the “village idiot” and in another compared her to an Asian character in a fictional TV documentary:
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Danny Alexander Gordon Birtwistle Annette Brooke (standing down, replacement Vikki Slade) Jeremy Browne (standing down, replacement Rachel Gilmour) Sir Malcolm Bruce (standing down, replacement Christine Jardine) Lorely Burt Sir Menzies Campbell (standing down, replacement Tim Brett) Michael Crockart Lynne Featherstone Stephen Gilbert David Heath (standing down, replacement David Rendel) John Leech Tessa Munt Alan Reid Sir Robert Smith, Bt. Ian Swales Jo Swinson Sarah Teather (standing down, no replacement candidate yet) David Ward Jenny Willott Simon Wright
Up against it (evens to 2/1)
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen) Duncan Hames Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson) Sir Nick Harvey Michael Moore Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow Andrew George John Hemming Julian Huppert Mark Hunter Charles Kennedy Stephen Lloyd Dan Rogerson Adrian Sanders Mike Thornton Mark Williams Roger Williams Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
My pb.com competition entry has them losing all but the 17 safest.
" Speaking of tricky situations - Ed Miliband is in Scotland this morning. He'll no doubt be question on the Salmond remarks (jumped on by the right-wing press) that the SNP would try and get concessions to a Labour budget, and back Labour on a vote by vote basis. One things Salmond wants is for HS2 to start in Scotland, but using infrastructure projects as bartering chips seems like the opposite of good government. And it's worth noting - again - that the SNP worked with the Tories from 2007-2011 in the Scottish Parliament, and that between 2005 and 2010, SNP MPs voted with the Tories on 88% of Finance Bills.
I'm not saying they're Tartan Tories - but I am saying that the idea that they won't work with the Tories is fanciful. And Anthony Painter outlined an all too-plausible Tory/SNP deal this weekend. A new ICM poll this morning shows just how far Scottish Labour have fallen, with the SNP still holding a 16 point lead."
It's amazing that some people on here think a child can go missing from hospital and the police and authorities not get involved.
They're often the same sort of people who expect the police and authorities to get highly involved in child welfare in other areas that are of rather obsessive interest to them.
(That is not excusing the later arrest warrant; but the parents did deliberately remove the child without telling the hospital, and made it very hard to be contacted by switching off their mobiles. What do people expect the hospital and police to do?)
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
Is Miliband in favour of PR? Could he rally his party behind it?
There seems to be a misunderstanding in all the commentary in England on Salmond' speech that they are dealing with a Miliband or a Cameron. Someone who will gaffe and say things they don't intend to, someone flustered in a moment where they lose control.
A man who has grown the SNP from a Fringe Party to a natural party of government.
A man who has taken the desire of the Scottish public for full Independence from around 15% when he first became leader to solidly 48% today.
A man who in the two year Indyref campaign grew the Yes vote from around 25% to 45%.
A man who ran a minority government for four years in the teeth of a hostile Labour Party who only had ONE seat less than the SNP but never dared to try and vote him down.
A man who delivered the utterly unthinkable and won a majority in an AMS D'Hondt PR electoral system - a system specifically designed and chosen so he could NEVER win a majority.
When Salmond does an interview on The Andrew Marr show he knows exactly what he will say. He knows exactly how the London press corps will cover it. He knows exactly how it will play out back home. This is a man who regularly does the unthinkable not because it is impossible but because his opponents haven't ever considered he could.
If you think the answer to the SNP problem is that Salmond will gaffe, the electorate will reject them and Scotland will go back in its box.... you've been asking the wrong question.
Michael Heaver (@Michael_Heaver) 23/03/2015 09:22 Roma gipsy girls as young as 12 are being ‘forced to live in arranged marriages in scandal-hit Rotherham’ dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…
It's amazing that some people on here think a child can go missing from hospital and the police and authorities not get involved.
They're often the same sort of people who expect the police and authorities to get highly involved in child welfare in other areas that are of rather obsessive interest to them.
(That is not excusing the later arrest warrant; but the parents did deliberately remove the child without telling the hospital, and made it very hard to be contacted by switching off their mobiles. What do people expect the hospital and police to do?)
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
Probably right, but under FPTP we don't know the reasons for people voting one way or another. Most likely a lot of the votes are against rather than for. So I would expect the polls to be showing different values if we had a proportional system such as STV simply because people could then express their true preferences rather than trying to game the FPTP system.
No-one has told Ed that Labour has signed up for "no detriment" in the Smith Commission. However at least he remembered to talk about the deficit. Must have had magic mirrors!
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Danny Alexander Gordon Birtwistle Annette Brooke (standing down, replacement Vikki Slade) Jeremy Browne (standing down, replacement Rachel Gilmour) Sir Malcolm Bruce (standing down, replacement Christine Jardine) Lorely Burt Sir Menzies Campbell (standing down, replacement Tim Brett) Michael Crockart Lynne Featherstone Stephen Gilbert David Heath (standing down, replacement David Rendel) John Leech Tessa Munt Alan Reid Sir Robert Smith, Bt. Ian Swales Jo Swinson Sarah Teather (standing down, no replacement candidate yet) David Ward Jenny Willott Simon Wright
Up against it (evens to 2/1)
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen) Duncan Hames Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson) Sir Nick Harvey Michael Moore Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow Andrew George John Hemming Julian Huppert Mark Hunter Charles Kennedy Stephen Lloyd Dan Rogerson Adrian Sanders Mike Thornton Mark Williams Roger Williams Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
My pb.com competition entry has them losing all but the 17 safest.
Personally I'd add Burstow, Thornton, Huppert to the "Safe" list, probably Stephen Williams too.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
Is Miliband in favour of PR? Could he rally his party behind it?
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
Is Miliband in favour of PR? Could he rally his party behind it?
Indeed, Is ther any proof what-so-ever that labour (on a whole) want PR. FPTP still works very very well for them.
Labour would be the big loser without FPTP, they are the only party which can get a majority on 35/sub 35% of the vote.
The biggest winner would be UKIP, as they would easily become king-makers.
In an interview with the New Statesman, Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale Labour MP, said, “any Labour politician that says to you they knock on a door and Ed Miliband is popular are telling lies. They’re just telling lies. It’s just not true. I spend four hours knocking on doors on a Sunday – they [constituents] say things like ‘you’re doing an alright job as MP but I don’t want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, so I won’t vote for you.’ So it’ll cost me votes.
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.
I disagree. Its not about Salmond at all, its taken as read he will have most of Scotland, its about Miliband and the damage appearing to be beholden to the SNP will do to Labour in the rest of the UK. This matters to the SNP to the extent that Labour is damaged enough by weakness stories that there is a CON/LD coalition which then ignores the SNP for 5 years.
No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.
Precisely.
Glad you make the point. If this turns the English voters off labour and gives the tories a majority then Salmond has shot himself in the foot. The clear move of the SNP to the far left ought to help the tories in Scotland as well. Ultimately I still think this attitude could undo the SNP surge.
LOL< you really are up on your knowledge on Scotland, next you will be talking Tory surges
It's amazing that some people on here think a child can go missing from hospital and the police and authorities not get involved.
They're often the same sort of people who expect the police and authorities to get highly involved in child welfare in other areas that are of rather obsessive interest to them.
(That is not excusing the later arrest warrant; but the parents did deliberately remove the child without telling the hospital, and made it very hard to be contacted by switching off their mobiles. What do people expect the hospital and police to do?)
Clearly it suits the Tories to talk up Salmond controlling Miliband, just as it suits Labour to talk up the Tories raising VAT.
One has a basis in fact, the other is just a groundless Labour smear....
Groundless in the sense that the last two times the Tories won an election they put up VAT after saying that they wouldn't?
It is, of course, demonstrably false that the only way Labour can form a government after May would be to do a deal with the SNP.
So if the Tories will put up VAT "because they did it before", I take it you will accept that it is a similar given that Labour will feck the economy and leave the number in work lower than they inherited?
Thank you for that confirmation.
On that basis they'll liquidate a million or two brownish people too, because that's also a thing with Labour now.
One thing they won't do again is have Damian McBride set up a smear unit to spread the lie that David and Samantha Cameron have a son who is disabled because he was born with an STD that David gave Samantha, for which smear the Labour leader will have to write Cameron an apology.
We know this won't happen because David Cameron no longer has a disabled son. Bummer for Labour there.
That aside, Labour will always remember that the Labour Parteh is a moral crusade or it is nothing. Narcissistically reassured by this this bit of onanistic self-regard it will simply find new ways to be utterly disgusting and morally incompetent, while applauding itself - without a trace of irony - for being better than its victims whom it envies and hates.
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Danny Alexander Gordon Birtwistle Annette Brooke (standing down, replacement Vikki Slade) Jeremy Browne (standing down, replacement Rachel Gilmour) Sir Malcolm Bruce (standing down, replacement Christine Jardine) Lorely Burt Sir Menzies Campbell (standing down, replacement Tim Brett) Michael Crockart Lynne Featherstone Stephen Gilbert David Heath (standing down, replacement David Rendel) John Leech Tessa Munt Alan Reid Sir Robert Smith, Bt. Ian Swales Jo Swinson Sarah Teather (standing down, no replacement candidate yet) David Ward Jenny Willott Simon Wright
Up against it (evens to 2/1)
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen) Duncan Hames Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson) Sir Nick Harvey Michael Moore Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow Andrew George John Hemming Julian Huppert Mark Hunter Charles Kennedy Stephen Lloyd Dan Rogerson Adrian Sanders Mike Thornton Mark Williams Roger Williams Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
My pb.com competition entry has them losing all but the 17 safest.
Personally I'd add Burstow, Thornton, Huppert to the "Safe" list, probably Stephen Williams too.
There might yet be a couple of safe seats that fall on a bad night.....swapping out with a couple of those you mention who do better than they should.
I see Michael Thrasher for SKY also has the LibDems on 17. Spooky.....
It's amazing that some people on here think a child can go missing from hospital and the police and authorities not get involved.
They're often the same sort of people who expect the police and authorities to get highly involved in child welfare in other areas that are of rather obsessive interest to them.
(That is not excusing the later arrest warrant; but the parents did deliberately remove the child without telling the hospital, and made it very hard to be contacted by switching off their mobiles. What do people expect the hospital and police to do?)
The parents have no obligation to justify themselves to the hospital in any shape or form, the child was not admitted with any suspected abuse, and there was no evidence to suggest the parents had anything other than the child'd best interests at heart. It is in all respects the nanny state gone mad. We arrest and harass loving parents trying to obtain the best treatment for their children when told by the NHS that the treatment would do no good (when clearly they had advise to the contrary), and yet we ignore hundreds of children being raped and abused in the northern and midland cities - not sure our priorities are quite right here.
It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?
Interesting.....
There will not be a second referendum.
There is no mechanism and no method by which you can stop it.
The precedent has already been set. And in the UK, with an unwritten constitution, precedent is everything.
The precedent is that Westminster has to agree to a referendum. Obviously, one can be organised without Westminster co-operation, but the result then has to be implemented. And there is no way that can be done without Westminster.
You're not thinking through what your saying. Your own sentence tells the answer even though it's not what you mean.
The precedent is that Westminster has to agree to a referendum.
Say it with the right stress on the right words. has to
This may help with your understanding of precedent
If Ukip are on 7% in Scotland does 9% in the uk as a whole fit?
In the commentary in the article, the 7% figure is talked of as half their level of support nationally, so it would seem that the Guardian won't hang their hat on the GB-wide scores for UKIP from ICM.
It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
'Once in a generation' not mean anything to you? I doubt you'll be so keen for Indy by 2050.
I, as a voter, get to decide when there will be another referendum. Not Alex Salmond or anyone else other than any individuals capacity as a voter. Salmond's Call To Action was perfectly logical, not a promise and not a declaration. It was what it was - a Call to Action.
You know this. Southam Observer knows this. Most of the Loyalists who make the claim know this. It doesn't change a thing.
The SNP will offer a Referendum at the 2016 Holyrood election and they will win a Majority in Holyrood. At that point it is just a question of the date. Nothing you can do will stop this. Nothing Westminster can do will stop this.
Thats what Ian Smith thought in Rhodesia. That turned out well. Scotland can only hold another referendum on independence if a Westminster act authorising it is passed. Organising an illegal referendum and declaring independence off tbe back of it is Treason
Could a way be found at all to include Tony Blair in the required hangings?
Clearly it suits the Tories to talk up Salmond controlling Miliband, just as it suits Labour to talk up the Tories raising VAT.
One has a basis in fact, the other is just a groundless Labour smear....
Groundless in the sense that the last two times the Tories won an election they put up VAT after saying that they wouldn't?
It is, of course, demonstrably false that the only way Labour can form a government after May would be to do a deal with the SNP.
So if the Tories will put up VAT "because they did it before", I take it you will accept that it is a similar given that Labour will feck the economy and leave the number in work lower than they inherited?
Thank you for that confirmation.
On that basis they'll liquidate a million or two brownish people too, because that's also a thing with Labour now.
One thing they won't do again is have Damian McBride set up a smear unit to spread the lie that David and Samantha Cameron have a son who is disabled because he was born with an STD that David gave Samantha, for which smear the Labour leader will have to write Cameron an apology.
We know this won't happen because David Cameron no longer has a disabled son. Bummer for Labour there.
That aside, Labour will always remember that the Labour Parteh is a moral crusade or it is nothing. Narcissistically reassured by this this bit of onanistic self-regard it will simply find new ways to be utterly disgusting and morally incompetent, while applauding itself - without a trace of irony - for being better than its victims whom it envies and hates.
Good point - if Cons put up VAT because "that's what they did last time", then only safe to assume that a vote for Labour is a vote to start a war in the 3rd world.
It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.
Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.
An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.
Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.
It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.
It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.
I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.
This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?
Interesting.....
There will not be a second referendum.
There is no mechanism and no method by which you can stop it.
The precedent has already been set. And in the UK, with an unwritten constitution, precedent is everything.
The precedent is that Westminster has to agree to a referendum. Obviously, one can be organised without Westminster co-operation, but the result then has to be implemented. And there is no way that can be done without Westminster.
You're not thinking through what your saying. Your own sentence tells the answer even though it's not what you mean.
The precedent is that Westminster has to agree to a referendum.
Say it with the right stress on the right words. has to
This may help with your understanding of precedent
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen) Duncan Hames Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson) Sir Nick Harvey Michael Moore Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow Andrew George John Hemming Julian Huppert Mark Hunter Charles Kennedy Stephen Lloyd Dan Rogerson Adrian Sanders Mike Thornton Mark Williams Roger Williams Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
I think Vince Cable and Simon Hughes might both lose their seats, but I'd be reasonably comfortable that Huppert will hold his . It's also possible that the Viscount's personal vote will get him over the edge.
If you want a complete flyer on the LibDems doing slightly better than expected, than can I suggest Bradford East?
" Speaking of tricky situations - Ed Miliband is in Scotland this morning. He'll no doubt be question on the Salmond remarks (jumped on by the right-wing press) that the SNP would try and get concessions to a Labour budget, and back Labour on a vote by vote basis. One things Salmond wants is for HS2 to start in Scotland, but using infrastructure projects as bartering chips seems like the opposite of good government. And it's worth noting - again - that the SNP worked with the Tories from 2007-2011 in the Scottish Parliament, and that between 2005 and 2010, SNP MPs voted with the Tories on 88% of Finance Bills.
I'm not saying they're Tartan Tories - but I am saying that the idea that they won't work with the Tories is fanciful. And Anthony Painter outlined an all too-plausible Tory/SNP deal this weekend. A new ICM poll this morning shows just how far Scottish Labour have fallen, with the SNP still holding a 16 point lead."
There is no chance whatsoever of the SNP propping up the Conservatives in Westminster.
- Sturgeon has explicitly ruled it out. - It would in a stroke alienate all the culturally anti-Tory voters they've just picked up from Labour. - It would run counter to all their current policy direction. - They'd take a load of flack for the austerity measures (they'd get this to an extent from propping up Labour but nothing like as much).
There is all the difference in the world between being a SNP government that does deals with the Tories and being an SNP minority party that does deals with a Tory government.
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
My pb.com competition entry has them losing all but the 17 safest.
Personally I'd add Burstow, Thornton, Huppert to the "Safe" list, probably Stephen Williams too.
There might yet be a couple of safe seats that fall on a bad night.....swapping out with a couple of those you mention who do better than they should.
I see Michael Thrasher for SKY also has the LibDems on 17. Spooky.....
I see the Labour MP Simon Danczuk has the same door step experience as you
In an interview with the New Statesman, Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale Labour MP, said, “any Labour politician that says to you they knock on a door and Ed Miliband is popular are telling lies. They’re just telling lies. It’s just not true. I spend four hours knocking on doors on a Sunday – they [constituents] say things like ‘you’re doing an alright job as MP but I don’t want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, so I won’t vote for you.’ So it’ll cost me votes.
“You get it on the doorstep. If we’re having a straight conversation about this, he [Miliband] has an image of being more of a toff than David Cameron. That’s how the public see it. And what they mean by that is that he’s seen as more aloof. They’d prefer to go for a pint with David Cameron than they would with Ed Miliband, that’s the reality of it.”
My first chance to comment on yesterday's events as I was out living my life.
The hounding of Nigel Farage was appalling and while I'm no friend of his or UKIP the man is entitled to have lunch with his family in peace and from personal experience I can thoroughly recommend lunch at the Queen's Head in Downe. Mr Stodge Senior and I have visited on a few occasions, last time in January but we avoid the Sunday hordes and go on Saturday.
The food on every occasion has been excellent though I certainly wouldn't describe it as a "south London pub". Downe is a charming village which though technically in London (Bromley) is more like the villages of Chipstead and Underriver (also excellent hostelries there). .
As for Salmond vs Soubry, I've watched the recording and I'm much less convinced about Soubry then all her cheerleaders on here (especially those who seem more interested in preventing the re-election of the former Labour MP). Of course, Salmond was being combative - could you imagine if Nick Clegg had said it before the last GE - and it may well be that a Conservative-SNP deal is more plausible than many suppose but it was a different approach to deal-making and we'll see.
Soubry's faux outrage was fairly repellent - she might complain about Salmond controlling Labour but would she complain if the DUP were the ones helping the Conservatives ? I suspect not and for all her comments about the "failure of Labour", the truth is the Conservatives are the ones who have failed in Scotland. From a plurality in the 50s to a wipe out in 1997 and one seat now. One could easily argue the rise of the SNP is far more the product of the failure of the Conservatives in Scotland than anything Labour has done.
The data also shows that Ed Miliband is more unpopular than David Cameron in Scotland. The prime minister’s net personal rating is -33, while the Labour leader’s is -39.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
It is ironic that Scottish Labour MPs have been among those most opposed to PR. Looks like they are going to pay the price, big time.
Another irony of this election, the Lib Dems are going to be saved by FPTP, but they would have got mullered under AV.
PR to save the Union.
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
Is Miliband in favour of PR? Could he rally his party behind it?
Indeed, Is ther any proof what-so-ever that labour (on a whole) want PR. FPTP still works very very well for them.
Labour would be the big loser without FPTP, they are the only party which can get a majority on 35/sub 35% of the vote.
The biggest winner would be UKIP, as they would easily become king-makers.
Ed M has rule out changing the voting system (for MPs):
Another triumph for social services. The boy they wanted to stay in the NHS hospital and essential die quietly is now pronounced cancer free after receiving treatment everyone swore would do him no good, and after jailing his parents for trying to take him to the treatment that has apparently saved his life.
Can social workers be jailed for misfeasance in public office? If not, why not? The concept of corporate manslaughter should cover criminal negligence wherever found.
Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.
Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.
I disagree. Its not about Salmond at all, its taken as read he will have most of Scotland, its about Miliband and the damage appearing to be beholden to the SNP will do to Labour in the rest of the UK. This matters to the SNP to the extent that Labour is damaged enough by weakness stories that there is a CON/LD coalition which then ignores the SNP for 5 years.
No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.
Precisely.
Glad you make the point. If this turns the English voters off labour and gives the tories a majority then Salmond has shot himself in the foot. The clear move of the SNP to the far left ought to help the tories in Scotland as well. Ultimately I still think this attitude could undo the SNP surge.
LOL< you really are up on your knowledge on Scotland, next you will be talking Tory surges
Says the turnip who called the indyref wrong.
Dear old Malcolm assured us that UKIP couldn't get an MEP in Scotland. His opinions on Scottish affairs have repeatedly been shown to be worthless. He's an idiot.
The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..
Here's a list not prepared by the Lib.Dems. from last month.
But I expect polls in Scotland may have changed the list of 'safe' since then.
Here's an up to date list based on the best price odds as before:
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Norman Baker Tom Brake Vince Cable Alistair Carmichael Nick Clegg Edward Davey Tim Farron Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley) Martin Horwood Simon Hughes Norman Lamb David Laws Greg Mulholland John Pugh Bob Russell Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart) Steve Webb
My pb.com competition entry has them losing all but the 17 safest.
Personally I'd add Burstow, Thornton, Huppert to the "Safe" list, probably Stephen Williams too.
There might yet be a couple of safe seats that fall on a bad night.....swapping out with a couple of those you mention who do better than they should.
I see Michael Thrasher for SKY also has the LibDems on 17. Spooky.....
I see the Labour MP Simon Danczuk has the same door step experience as you
In an interview with the New Statesman, Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale Labour MP, said, “any Labour politician that says to you they knock on a door and Ed Miliband is popular are telling lies. They’re just telling lies. It’s just not true. I spend four hours knocking on doors on a Sunday – they [constituents] say things like ‘you’re doing an alright job as MP but I don’t want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, so I won’t vote for you.’ So it’ll cost me votes.
“You get it on the doorstep. If we’re having a straight conversation about this, he [Miliband] has an image of being more of a toff than David Cameron. That’s how the public see it. And what they mean by that is that he’s seen as more aloof. They’d prefer to go for a pint with David Cameron than they would with Ed Miliband, that’s the reality of it.”
Comments
Another triumph for social services. The boy they wanted to stay in the NHS hospital and essential die quietly is now pronounced cancer free after receiving treatment everyone swore would do him no good, and after jailing his parents for trying to take him to the treatment that has apparently saved his life.
Daily Mail Online (@MailOnline)
23/03/2015 07:54
Aussie terrorist Khaled Sharrouf's daughter aged 14 marries fellow jihadi 17 years her senior dailym.ai/1xrstmt pic.twitter.com/AuOvo74x2K
Labour faces electoral rout in Scotland
Exclusive: Poll suggests Scottish Labour will lose 29 of the 41 seats Gordon Brown won in 2010, with Nicola Sturgeon’s SNP still way out in front
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/23/labour-faces-electoral-rout-scotland-snp
We could be like Singapore with Singapore's levels of totalitarianism.
Further analysis for the Guardian suggests that the dire headline figures could be an underestimate of the catastrophe confronting Scottish Labour.
ICM used postcodes to place its 1,002 respondents into individual seats, which were then lumped into four categories – including “Labour heartland” (where the 2010 lead over the SNP exceeded 25 points) and “more marginal Labour”.
Prof John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, Scotland’s pre-eminent psephologist, calculated the post-2010 swing in each class of constituency, and concluded that Scottish Labour could be wiped out in all but two seats.
Or we can be bankrupt.
Tough choice.
(Incidentally you can only immigrate to Singapore other than on a tourist visa if you have a job, if you lose your job, you have to leave, if you can stay employed for 5 years, you get citizenship)
I wonder which two seats John Curtice attributes to Labour on these figures. East Renfrewshire and Glasgow North East?
We know it's useless for the UK, and the by elections suggest it's useless for England.
Would be amusing to see Labour gain a seat in Scotland, but still end up on only two.
"On the Curtice projections, Labour would in fact lose all but one – Glasgow North East – of its existing seats. The other seat it would win, East Dumbartonshire, would be picked up from the Liberal Democrat Jo Swinson as a result of her party’s collapse."
I would be very very surprised if labour pick up east Dunbartonshire.
It ain't going to happen, jim.
The three other parties would split the remaining six equally – with two seats apiece. The extraordinary implication is that Scottish Labour would be left with no more representation than the Scottish Tories, who have been semi-extinct at Westminster since 1997.
Scottish Tory Surge?
It looks like after the next GE it will only be the Tories that oppose it.
They are working on the lazy assumption that all UKIP voters are ex Tories who would give the Tories their second preferences.
But I consider it progress.
That Britain is fecked. More precisely, that the poorest of Britain are fecked. They must know this will be the outcome of what is in their manifesto. But they repeatedly go ahead and do it anyway. And then have the audacity to proclaim they are the party that stands up for the poorest in society.
Ignoring that in many instances, it is Labour that has punched them to the floor in the first place.
Humza Yousaf has just retweeted one of my tweets.
So it won't require an extraordinarily high turnout either...
So now we're witnessing the final desperate Hail Mary lurches - rebellious Scots must be crushed! Absolute self interested lunacy by the Right.
Not the voters problem if your precious Tories are not popular enough to win an outright majority. And this is the voting system you favoured in the AV referendum, remember?
https://twitter.com/adamboultonSKY/status/579937557749862400
Scotland Swing is proportional not universal.
Note at the bottom, is this the first time an election leaflet has used betting odds?
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAxamaKXIAAODV-.jpg
If in, for argument's sake, 50 seats the SNP candidate gets most votes then 50 SNP MPs *is* a true reflection of what the Scottish people want. I simply do not buy the argument that PR represents what people want and FPTP does not.
Mr. Eagles, if that happened it'd be Lab and (informally) the SNP. Catastrophic for the Lib Dems and disappointing for UKIP. Not great for the blues, but 272 is a respectable point for rebuilding, unlike 2001 and 2005 when they only had around 190-200 or so.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAxa7zEWoAApWJj.jpg
Doomed (2/1 or longer)
Danny Alexander
Gordon Birtwistle
Annette Brooke (standing down, replacement Vikki Slade)
Jeremy Browne (standing down, replacement Rachel Gilmour)
Sir Malcolm Bruce (standing down, replacement Christine Jardine)
Lorely Burt
Sir Menzies Campbell (standing down, replacement Tim Brett)
Michael Crockart
Lynne Featherstone
Stephen Gilbert
David Heath (standing down, replacement David Rendel)
John Leech
Tessa Munt
Alan Reid
Sir Robert Smith, Bt.
Ian Swales
Jo Swinson
Sarah Teather (standing down, no replacement candidate yet)
David Ward
Jenny Willott
Simon Wright
Up against it (evens to 2/1)
Sir Alan Beith (standing down, replacement Julie Pörksen)
Duncan Hames
Mike Hancock (expelled from party, replacement Gerald Vernon-Jackson)
Sir Nick Harvey
Michael Moore
Viscount John Thurso
At risk (1/2 to evens)
Paul Burstow
Andrew George
John Hemming
Julian Huppert
Mark Hunter
Charles Kennedy
Stephen Lloyd
Dan Rogerson
Adrian Sanders
Mike Thornton
Mark Williams
Roger Williams
Stephen Williams
Safe (1/2 or shorter)
Norman Baker
Tom Brake
Vince Cable
Alistair Carmichael
Nick Clegg
Edward Davey
Tim Farron
Don Foster (standing down, replacement Steve Bradley)
Martin Horwood
Simon Hughes
Norman Lamb
David Laws
Greg Mulholland
John Pugh
Bob Russell
Sir Andrew Stunell (standing down, replacement Lisa Smart)
Steve Webb
The end game here is clear and has been since last September.
Super Devomax (short of independence) + EV4EL
A Tory/SNP carve up.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAxbgHlW4AAjOo2.jpg
If the Tories do not get most seats it's farewell Mr Cameron and Mr Osborne.
Treasury minister Priti Patel turned on her Labour rival for the seat of Witham in Essex after a string of obnoxious tweets and campaign leaflets.
And she revealed her anger to SunNation after Labour admitted their man John Clarke had gone too far.
In one tweet, Mr Clarke called the popular Ms Patel the “village idiot” and in another compared her to an Asian character in a fictional TV documentary:
http://www.sunnation.co.uk/tory-mp-priti-patel-trolled-on-twitter-by-labour-rival-john-clarke/
" Speaking of tricky situations - Ed Miliband is in Scotland this morning. He'll no doubt be question on the Salmond remarks (jumped on by the right-wing press) that the SNP would try and get concessions to a Labour budget, and back Labour on a vote by vote basis. One things Salmond wants is for HS2 to start in Scotland, but using infrastructure projects as bartering chips seems like the opposite of good government. And it's worth noting - again - that the SNP worked with the Tories from 2007-2011 in the Scottish Parliament, and that between 2005 and 2010, SNP MPs voted with the Tories on 88% of Finance Bills.
I'm not saying they're Tartan Tories - but I am saying that the idea that they won't work with the Tories is fanciful. And Anthony Painter outlined an all too-plausible Tory/SNP deal this weekend. A new ICM poll this morning shows just how far Scottish Labour have fallen, with the SNP still holding a 16 point lead."
It's amazing that some people on here think a child can go missing from hospital and the police and authorities not get involved.
They're often the same sort of people who expect the police and authorities to get highly involved in child welfare in other areas that are of rather obsessive interest to them.
(That is not excusing the later arrest warrant; but the parents did deliberately remove the child without telling the hospital, and made it very hard to be contacted by switching off their mobiles. What do people expect the hospital and police to do?)
The Nat pantomime needs a villian - not a dork.
23/03/2015 09:22
Roma gipsy girls as young as 12 are being ‘forced to live in arranged marriages in scandal-hit Rotherham’ dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2…
No-one has told Ed that Labour has signed up for "no detriment" in the Smith Commission. However at least he remembered to talk about the deficit. Must have had magic mirrors!
Labour would be the big loser without FPTP, they are the only party which can get a majority on 35/sub 35% of the vote.
The biggest winner would be UKIP, as they would easily become king-makers.
One thing they won't do again is have Damian McBride set up a smear unit to spread the lie that David and Samantha Cameron have a son who is disabled because he was born with an STD that David gave Samantha, for which smear the Labour leader will have to write Cameron an apology.
We know this won't happen because David Cameron no longer has a disabled son. Bummer for Labour there.
That aside, Labour will always remember that the Labour Parteh is a moral crusade or it is nothing. Narcissistically reassured by this this bit of onanistic self-regard it will simply find new ways to be utterly disgusting and morally incompetent, while applauding itself - without a trace of irony - for being better than its victims whom it envies and hates.
I see Michael Thrasher for SKY also has the LibDems on 17. Spooky.....
https://xkcd.com/1122/
SNP 38
Lab 15
Con 4
UKIP 1
LD 1
If you want a complete flyer on the LibDems doing slightly better than expected, than can I suggest Bradford East?
- Sturgeon has explicitly ruled it out.
- It would in a stroke alienate all the culturally anti-Tory voters they've just picked up from Labour.
- It would run counter to all their current policy direction.
- They'd take a load of flack for the austerity measures (they'd get this to an extent from propping up Labour but nothing like as much).
There is all the difference in the world between being a SNP government that does deals with the Tories and being an SNP minority party that does deals with a Tory government.
In an interview with the New Statesman, Simon Danczuk, the Rochdale Labour MP, said, “any Labour politician that says to you they knock on a door and Ed Miliband is popular are telling lies. They’re just telling lies. It’s just not true. I spend four hours knocking on doors on a Sunday – they [constituents] say things like ‘you’re doing an alright job as MP but I don’t want Ed Miliband as Prime Minister, so I won’t vote for you.’ So it’ll cost me votes.
“You get it on the doorstep. If we’re having a straight conversation about this, he [Miliband] has an image of being more of a toff than David Cameron. That’s how the public see it. And what they mean by that is that he’s seen as more aloof. They’d prefer to go for a pint with David Cameron than they would with Ed Miliband, that’s the reality of it.”
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2015/03/exclusive-labour-mp-says-public-think-ed-miliband-aloof-and-more-toff-cameron
My first chance to comment on yesterday's events as I was out living my life.
The hounding of Nigel Farage was appalling and while I'm no friend of his or UKIP the man is entitled to have lunch with his family in peace and from personal experience I can thoroughly recommend lunch at the Queen's Head in Downe. Mr Stodge Senior and I have visited on a few occasions, last time in January but we avoid the Sunday hordes and go on Saturday.
The food on every occasion has been excellent though I certainly wouldn't describe it as a "south London pub". Downe is a charming village which though technically in London (Bromley) is more like the villages of Chipstead and Underriver (also excellent hostelries there). .
As for Salmond vs Soubry, I've watched the recording and I'm much less convinced about Soubry then all her cheerleaders on here (especially those who seem more interested in preventing the re-election of the former Labour MP). Of course, Salmond was being combative - could you imagine if Nick Clegg had said it before the last GE - and it may well be that a Conservative-SNP deal is more plausible than many suppose but it was a different approach to deal-making and we'll see.
Soubry's faux outrage was fairly repellent - she might complain about Salmond controlling Labour but would she complain if the DUP were the ones helping the Conservatives ? I suspect not and for all her comments about the "failure of Labour", the truth is the Conservatives are the ones who have failed in Scotland. From a plurality in the 50s to a wipe out in 1997 and one seat now. One could easily argue the rise of the SNP is far more the product of the failure of the Conservatives in Scotland than anything Labour has done.
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/ed-miliband-no-change-voting-5259855
But, I believe I have read in the past that he personally supports PR.
Note thought that this leaves the door open for PR for local elections in a deal with LibDems.