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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Yesterday’s interviews could prove to have been Alex Salmond’s Sheffield rally moment

Those of us who are old enough remember the great Labour Sheffield rally before the 1992 General Election which came over in the media as a celebration of the victory that the party presumed was going to happen the following Thursday.

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JosiasJessop

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

felix

I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.

MikeSmithson

JosiasJessop said:

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.

Innocent_Abroad

Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.

JosiasJessop

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.

But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.

I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.

There are greater forces at work.

(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?

Paul_Mid_Beds

More like Dwayne Dibleys Sheffield moment by proxy. He is now playing the price for not ruling out working with Salmond. Sure he ruled out a coalition but nothing about ruling out supply and confidence.

SNP are the new Militant Tendancy worming their way into Labour it seems.

Indigo

youtu.be/7TOgB3Smvro?t=1m30s

Paul_Mid_Beds

FPT

david_herdson said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

notme said:

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Actually I jest a little re:

"If I was Major, I would have repealed the Parliament Act in 1996 and replaced it with an act disbarring all life peers and prohibiting any more hereditary peers to be created except when a line dies out and needing an 80% majority in both houses to repeal. That would have stopped Brown opening the spending spigots in 2001."

Do you think if a government actually did that the Monarch would intervene?

I think the fact that *she* could intervene is enough to make a government think twice. Its something a monarch could only get away with once, and i doubt it would happen. What would happen is that in their weekly chats, she would express her displeasure. By all accounts she is extremely intelligent and astute. No PM would be crazy enough to go to the wire with her, there would be compromise, all done entirely in private.

Thirty years ago when I was at Croydon college we had a general studies lecturer who was a liberal councillor in Kingston. We had an interesting discussion one day as to whether she could dissolve parliament to stop a perfidious government in its tracks.

He was of the opinion that she could de jure but only de facto if it was a matter of critical importance that the people - and armed forces who are hers not parliaments - would support. The example he gave was if a government attempted to repeal the representation of the people act to avoid submitting themselves for re election.

Would certainly be interesting if she went all Charles II.

I would agree with that.

Well, almost. Thirty years ago, the better reserve power to use would be to dissolve parliament on her own initiative in that situation. One would assume that the other main parties would oppose the controversial measure and that it was a critical issue in the public's mind. If either wasn't the case, it'd be near-enough impossible to justify an extraordinary use of a reserve power but assuming both were, then it would be better put to the electorate than vetoing outright.

However, now that she doesn't have that power any more, the veto would be the only option.

Didn't realise she had lost that power. Which PM did that to her?

That said, if she had the army and people on her side she could regain it pretty sharpish.

ThomasNashe

I think it's likely to go down very badly with English voters - and we can be sure they won't be voting SNP.

Innocent_Abroad

Paul [6.16 am] I think the relevant precedent is Greece in 1967.

JackW

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.

Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.

JackW

Latest ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election & "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdown :

26 hours 26 minutes 26 seconds

PeterC

felix said:

I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.

Which is of course exactly what he wants.

Dair

There seems to be a misunderstanding in all the commentary in England on Salmond' speech that they are dealing with a Miliband or a Cameron. Someone who will gaffe and say things they don't intend to, someone flustered in a moment where they lose control.

A man who has grown the SNP from a Fringe Party to a natural party of government.

A man who has taken the desire of the Scottish public for full Independence from around 15% when he first became leader to solidly 48% today.

A man who in the two year Indyref campaign grew the Yes vote from around 25% to 45%.

A man who ran a minority government for four years in the teeth of a hostile Labour Party who only had ONE seat less than the SNP but never dared to try and vote him down.

A man who delivered the utterly unthinkable and won a majority in an AMS D'Hondt PR electoral system - a system specifically designed and chosen so he could NEVER win a majority.

When Salmond does an interview on The Andrew Marr show he knows exactly what he will say. He knows exactly how the London press corps will cover it. He knows exactly how it will play out back home. This is a man who regularly does the unthinkable not because it is impossible but because his opponents haven't ever considered he could.

If you think the answer to the SNP problem is that Salmond will gaffe, the electorate will reject them and Scotland will go back in its box.... you've been asking the wrong question.

Innocent_Abroad

JackW said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.

Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.

They'd be the parties that have their real HQs in London, Jack. Although it's possible that Mr Murphy has a fall-back position of Ulsterizing Glasgow politics with himself as the leader of the Caledonian branch of Sinn Fein...

Paul_Mid_Beds

Will this now be the "If you want the Scotsnats as a neighbour vote Labour" election?

alex.

PeterC said:

felix said:

I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.

Which is of course exactly what he wants.

Well yes, why would he actually want to be propping up a probably extremely unpopular Labour Govt? Much better to have the Conservatives in power with the SNP (despite holding almost all Scottish seats) powerless to stop them doing what they want.

AlastairMeeks

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Paul_Mid_Beds

alex. said:

PeterC said:

felix said:

I'd be very surprised if he does not win in Gordon but I suspect that his arrogance resonates much less well outside Scotland. It could push some wanderers back to the Conservatives.

Which is of course exactly what he wants.

Well yes, why would he actually want to be propping up a probably extremely unpopular Labour Govt? Much better to have the Conservatives in power with the SNP (despite holding almost all Scottish seats) powerless to stop them doing what they want.

I suspect that's exactly what he wants as it gives him a huge chance of winning a thumping majority in Holyrood next year and then winning the independence referendum he demands and gets off the back of it - or declaring UDI with popular support if Cameron refuses it.

Sean_F

The bigger impact might be South of the Border.

AlastairMeeks

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.

But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.

I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.

There are greater forces at work.

(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?

Here you go:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1YndxUDVSWjI0d1k/view?usp=sharing

Dair

antifrank said:

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.

Comedy Gold.

chestnut

The SNP could kill Labour in England and Wales.

If the only way they can legislate is with SNP help, they're done for. Similarly, if Labour rely on Tory help to legislate over Scotland, the same is on the cards there.

The debate format is a terrible one for Labour. Farage and Sturgeon present, and everything potentially turning into England/Wales v Scotland.

scotslass

I saw Salmond's interview yesterday. He was funny polite and engaging. To stick up the Daily Mail and pretend that it reflects anything close to reality is a new low for Mike.

DavidL

The difference with Sheffield is that I do not see this hurting the SNP. Labour, on the other hand, I would not be so sure about.

I heard a snippet over the weekend of Salmond saying he had checked his top pocket and as far as he could see Ed wasn't there. He didn't seem to regard it as much of a loss but the line that if you want a real left wing government you should vote SNP is consistent with SNP tactics to date and an effective line for the SNP to take in Scotland. Sturgeon has quipped before being more left wing than Labour was so easy even John Swinney (her Finance Minister) could manage it.

The Tory poster was one of the more effective of recent times. This can hurt Labour in England. I got a Tory e-mail about it over the weekend as well. It is a point that they are pushing hard and it plays into the Ed is weak meme very effectively. Since the SNP priority is to destroy SLAB Labour will get hit from both ends with this. There is a mutuality of interest between the SNP and the Tories that will keep this running.

PeterC

The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.

AlastairMeeks

Dair said:

antifrank said:

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.

Comedy Gold.

Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.

edmundintokyo

Cold northern bits of larger countries (Alaska, Hokkaido etc) often seem to elect MPs who are semi-detached from the larger political disputes and concentrate on bringing in pork for their constituents. Their constituents generally seem to be happy with this, even to the point where they don't mind if their MP goes to prison for a bit, as long as they resume bringing home the bacon once they get out. I don't know much about Scotand but I don't see why voters there would be upset about Salmond preemptively chortling about how much leverage he'll be exercising on their behalf.

JosiasJessop

antifrank said:

JosiasJessop said:

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.

But this is hardly the same, is it? 2012 were just 'ordinary' local elections, whilst, the indy ref appears to have totally changed the Scottish political landscape. The question is how long that change will last.

I'm on the record as saying things will not be as bad for Scottish Labour as the polls currently show (*), but it feels, to me at least, that current events are bigger than any one person's comments can derail.

There are greater forces at work.

(*) AIUI, the majorities are so large in some Scottish Labour constituencies that an unwinding of just a few percent could take many out of the SNP's hands. This has to be what Murphy and co. are working towards. Is there an easily-accessible table / chart anywhere showing the current Scottish majorities for all seats?

Here you go:

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0Bygi8eZw-4q1YndxUDVSWjI0d1k/view?usp=sharing

Thanks, that's very useful.

Innocent_Abroad

PeterC said:

The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.

It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...

Scott_P

@TimGatt: Ed is out of his depth: poll shows Miliband is not trusted to lead UK abroad or keep us safe http://t.co/9JZsdfp9SS http://t.co/WNyUpbWPtp

DavidL

Innocent_Abroad said:

PeterC said:

The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.

It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...

Ask the Scottish Lib Dems (assuming you can still find one) how that is likely to go. Even Ed is not that stupid.

Scott_P

Innocent_Abroad said:

There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...

Eh?

The chancellor sets the budget. If a 20% cut to the DWP budget is then implemented by the minister, was that idealogical or not?

scotslass

Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.

MonikerDiCanio

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Dair

antifrank said:

Dair said:

antifrank said:

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.

Comedy Gold.

Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.

Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.

Scott_P

The Guardian election live blog is up from today

@Claire_Phipps: The @guardian #election2015 live blog starts today, right now – come and read our essential morning briefing http://t.co/lg80CTT4LC

This bit is very useful

Diary

Ed Miliband and Jim Murphy are speaking in Clydebank at 9am. The Guardian’s Scotland correspondent, Severin Carrell, will be there: keep an eye on his tweets @severincarrell.

At 10.30am, home secretary Theresa May will make a speech on tackling extremism.

Nigel Farage, along with Ukip deputy leader Paul Nuttall and economics spokesman Patrick O’Flynn, will be lifting the lid on the party’s economy policy in Heywood and Middleton at 11.15am.

Separately, a Ukip disciplinary hearing is due to take place into Janice Atkinson, an MEP and the party’s candidate in Folkestone & Hythe, suspended over allegations that a member of her staff attempted to obtain an inflated receipt to claim EU expenses.

From 2.30 to 4.30 Sky News hosts its “ask the chancellors” debate. George Osborne is first up, followed by Ed Balls, each questioned separately for 30 minutes followed by 15 minutes of questions via Facebook.

At 3.30pm, David Cameron will make a statement on the EU summit.

At 4pm, Lord Ashcroft will tweet the results of his latest national poll.

At 4.15pm, the IFS and OBR are up before the Treasury select committee to be quizzed on the budget. Keep an eye on our business live blog for more on this one.

Dair

PeterC said:

The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.

Personally I would love this. Labour lose any chance of ever recovering in Scotland. The SNP would probably reshuffle their Westminster hierarchy so Salmond becomes Leader of Her Majesties Loyal Opposition (that's the only circumstance they will switch Westminster hierarchy).

Just think of the damage Salmond would do to Miliwonk or Cameron at a PMQs. Ratings would go through the roof.

DavidL

Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?

Paul_Mid_Beds

Dair said:

antifrank said:

Dair said:

antifrank said:

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.

Comedy Gold.

Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.

Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.

No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.

Innocent_Abroad

Scott_P said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...

Eh?

The chancellor sets the budget. If a 20% cut to the DWP budget is then implemented by the minister, was that idealogical or not?

It wouldn't work quite that way. The Chancellor would have to get the Cabinet to agree to his (or even her) Budget, and where the cuts would fall. In practical terms, a Grand Coalition wouldn't make any further tax cuts (and would prioritize turning avoidance into evasion). This of course is why Tory activists would hate it. Labour activists would hate it for other reasons.

Many voters will like the idea of a government that both red and blue activists hate.

scotslass

Daiir

And my point is that nothing in the Daily Hate/Mike presentation reflects the reality of Salmond's interview. It reflects a combination of the Mail's prejudices and Mike's fears that the Lib/Dems are about to lose all their seats!

foxinsoxuk

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

Easterross

Good morning all and fascinating how the Eck interventions are being portrayed on both sides of Hadrian's Wall. North of the Border it is being seen that the English want the Scots to remain in the Union but not to have any part in running it. South of Hadrian's Wall we are seeing Eck as Miliband's puppet master pulling Miliband's strings. If it drives English voters back to the Tories it will achieve its aim. Salmond's aim of course is to drive even more Scots Labour voters to the SNP.

Dair

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Dair said:

antifrank said:

Dair said:

antifrank said:

At the swings that the SNP are registering, tactical voting against them is unlikely to cost them more than a couple of seats.

Since SNP supporters want the SNP to be influencing the direction of the UK government, I doubt that his comments yesterday will put many who were previously considering voting for them off. Though the SNP does need to watch the hubris.

Having Tory ministers pissing themselves in terror while sat next to Alex Salmond on the Andrew Marr Show does a lot to help too. Pretty sure Anna Soubry added a few tenths of a percent to the SNP polling numbers with her "Outraged of Tunbridge Wells" performance.

Comedy Gold.

Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.

Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.

No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.

You should perhaps scroll back to my first post in this thread.

If you believe anything Salmond says or does is "unwitting", you haven't been paying attention.

[Deleted User]

Tories on 36% with Opinium:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3006958/Conservatives-enjoy-biggest-poll-lead-2010-Party-enjoys-three-point-advantage-36-cent-wake-budget.html

Is the budget starting to influence the numbers? I think if they get 36% on the day then likely Dave stays in No.10.

Dair

DavidL said:

Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?

I'm not sure how much Creepy Jim will be thinking clearly at all.

The only thought I expect is going through his head, all day, is "Help".

Indigo

scotslass said:

Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.

No, lets ignore the front page of the most widely read online newspaper in the world, that's a much better idea. The SNP don't like it, who cares what the other 60m people in the country think.

scotslass

Fox etc

Ah yes FPP. What a dreadful system. Which parties support it again? Wasn't Salmond lucky that they didn't have PR in the Scottish Parly when he swept to an overall majority in 2015.

Indigo

Dair said:

antifrank said:

Conservative ministers are catering for a different slice of the market: the UKIP/Conservative waverers who really don't like the SNP. Anna Soubry will have won herself a lot of brownie points in Downing Street for her performance yesterday.

Yes, you're quite right but that's not my point. The Thread is about how Salmond's appearance is a potential Sheffieldesque gaffe by Salmond. My point is that in Scotland, it is far from this, it is a positive for the SNP campaign.

I disagree. Its not about Salmond at all, its taken as read he will have most of Scotland, its about Miliband and the damage appearing to be beholden to the SNP will do to Labour in the rest of the UK. This matters to the SNP to the extent that Labour is damaged enough by weakness stories that there is a CON/LD coalition which then ignores the SNP for 5 years.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

No one south of Hadrians wall cares how it went down in Scotland, they are more interested in why Salmod is seemingly unwittingly becoming Lynton Crosbys useful idiot.

Precisely.

Easterross

Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!

DavidL

I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.

My guess for a while is that the SNP will have about 30 gains getting them up to about 36. Quite a number of these are from the Lib Dems (Kincardine, Inverness, Argyll, NE Fife and probably a couple of others) so the damage to Labour is more like the mid 20s than some of the frothier claims. Trying to argue this "disappointing" result was a consequence of hubris is an advocacy task I would not wish on my worst enemy.

Never is a strong word but Scottish politics will not be the same for a very long time.

Dair

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

AlastairMeeks

Easterross said:

Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!

It would be refreshing if just once a pollster tweeted: "New poll coming out at 4pm. Don't expect too much in the way of movement."

malcolmg

JackW said:

Innocent_Abroad said:

Mike, that was before the Referendum. The "English" parties are finished in Scotland - except, perhaps, for the Tories in the Borders.

Which "English parties" would they be? Scotland doesn't belong to the SNP.

Labour , Tories and Lib Dems which are all English parties with pretendy regional offices ran by sockpuppets

Ishmael_X

MikeSmithson said:

JosiasJessop said:

First?

And on topic: I doubt it will make much of a difference. What is happening in Scotland at the moment is far more seismic than anything in the 1992 election.

Remember in 2012 when Salmond told the world that the SNP would take control of Glasgow in the local elections. What happened. Labour was returned in the city with overall control.

So that one prediction about a local election outweighs everything else in his career? Why?

I thought Salmond looked frightening yesterday. I did not think Kinnock looked frightening on 1 4 92, I thought he looked a twat. Big difference. And I also strongly disagree that Sheffield actually swung it, I think the reality was always that Neil Kinnock Would Never Be Prime Minister. The thesis of this post is like a crime wave in a multi storey car park - wrong on so many different levels.

I expect Soubry's performance will have rattled the competition in Broxtowe , mind.

JPJ2

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

malcolmg

Indigo said:

scotslass said:

Ah the grand coalition. That will go down a bomb in Scotland. I still think any self respecting site should not as a matter of principle present the Daily Hate as a subject for discussion and pretend that it reflects anything other than the concocted prejudices of people that none of us would invite around for diner.

No, lets ignore the front page of the most widely read online newspaper in the world, that's a much better idea. The SNP don't like it, who cares what the other 60m people in the country think.

Only fools and dullards take that toilet paper seriously , and americans do not have a vote in the election

scotslass

Indigo

The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.

timmo

And in other news Paddy Ashdown finally says that the LibDems believe the Pope is Catholic..

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/liberaldemocrats/11488848/Lib-Dems-throw-weak-MPs-to-the-wolves.html

DavidL

Easterross said:

Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!

Don't panic. This is a Monday. Things are usually better for the Tories on Mondays. A quick bill to bring the election date forward 3 days might be the most useful thing the Coalition could do in its dying days.

Dair

DavidL said:

I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.

Unless you mean a subsample you didn't see a 41% since the discredited TNS leading question poll back in January

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Indigo

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

I think almost all the people of England don't actually care who runs Scotland, its rapidly becoming another country, and the number of English that wish the Scots would just "go away" is escalating every day. They care to some extent about who will be running the next UK government, they were already concerned about EdM's weakness, and Salmond strutting around on the TV is just going to alarm them more. It wont damage Salmond at all, it might be fatal for Miliband.

malcolmg

scotslass said:

I saw Salmond's interview yesterday. He was funny polite and engaging. To stick up the Daily Mail and pretend that it reflects anything close to reality is a new low for Mike.

Desperate times require desperate measures , we are at Lord Haw Haw situation.

foxinsoxuk

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

AlastairMeeks

scotslass said:

Indigo

The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.

Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?

malcolmg

Innocent_Abroad said:

PeterC said:

The debate which dare not speak its name is grand coalition. Might this be the only way to secure stability and to shut out the SNP? Its what the Germans have done twice in recent years, and Germany is a rather well run country, I think.

It's bound to come up in the debates, methinks. There must be a lot of voters who like the idea of a Tory Chancellor whilst Labour run places like the DWP and DCLG. Sound finance plus a guarantee that cuts to services are not ideologically driven...

Ho Ho Ho , so desperate the unionists need to gang up on SNP at home now , they really are doing well, under siege in Westminster and flapping like the jessies they are.

Indigo

The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.

Ishmael_X

Easterross said:

Lord Ashcroft tweeting his 4pm is interesting. That is usually code for disastrous for the Tory party. Bugger!

I think there is a genuine consensus on this site that Lord Ashcroft's Monday efforts represent a Christmas 1914 opportunity to set aside our differences and laugh till our ribs come adrift. I really wouldn't worry too much about it.

Any polls today from named BPC pollsters?

Dair

JPJ2 said:

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

It's not just the people in Scotland that believe Nicola Sturgeon is the UK's best leader.

The Yougov Poll for the Sunday Times included Sturgeon in the leadership approval question

Sturgeon +7
Cameron -5
Milliband -39
Clegg -47

Clearly the hard graft she is putting in with the London media is paying off. While Salmond plays the bogeyman (a role he plays very well) she plays Good Cop and the public take a shine to her.

malcolmg

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

One day when you grow up Monica you will understand these things

MonikerDiCanio

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

malcolmg

DavidL said:

Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?

He is just taking orders from his English Lord and Master as the sub regional parties have to.

scotslass

The key point about the SNP and Salmond is this. He understands better than anyone that the party has been squeezed in Westminster elections because they were seen to be marginal to the campaign. They seem to have solved that problem!

TheWatcher

MonikerDiCanio said:

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.

MarqueeMark

Folks from the Midlands south are canny enough to know that a Labour-SNP arrangement means they can say cheerio to any chance of major infrastructure funding.

Actually, I'm not sure how well it will it play in Lancashire or Yorkshire either. There is only one party talking about a Northern Powerhouse that extends beyond the Central Belt.

Dair

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

MarqueeMark

DavidL said:

Oh lord, Ed has come to Scotland again? What is Murphy thinking?

That it will give one of them the chance to look like a future leader?

malcolmg

Dair said:

DavidL said:

I am sure I saw a poll reported somewhat second hand indicating that the SNP were down to 41, 10% ahead of Labour. I think it was a Yougov and in the ST but I didn't have much time to read it yesterday. Only 1 poll but it did suggest something of a recovery for SLAB and I really don't see how having Ed speak in Scotland will help that.

Unless you mean a subsample you didn't see a 41% since the discredited TNS leading question poll back in January

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

Wishful thinking

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.

You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.

asjohnstone

Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.

Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England

It's entirely by design.

timmo

The story in the Telegraph about the LibDems throwing certain MPs to the wolves is interesting but it is also just part of an expectations management exercise. What would be more interesting is to know which MPs they have decided to throw to the wolves but I expect that won't come out..

MarqueeMark

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?

Interesting.....

malcolmg

Indigo said:

The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.

I thought you had won saddo, yet you seem a bit glum.

Scott_P

@SophyRidgeSky: Here's the Times' take on the Tory attack ad showing Miliband in Salmond's pocket... http://t.co/s9cFSUBJKK

Dair

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.

Salmond is the decoy. It's working very well. While all the commentators concentrate on berating him, Sturgeon is quietly building her reputation with people outside Scotland and is already the most popular party leader UK wide.

TheWatcher

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.

You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.

Massive self awareness failure from Malky, king of the Turnips.

Financier

The results from the 1st round of French Local elections, show a firm rejection for the Left - especially their economic madness - , but people do not yet have faith in the extreme right. A future return for Sarkozy?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32006268

scotslass

Dair

Great post. Salmond and Sturgeon have been the most successful double act bar none. They still are. Salmond will not give a stuff about the Daily Hate or Mike for that matter. His aim will be to ensure that the SNP are front and centre of this campaign and it is working.

Dair

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?

Interesting.....

Thinking Westminster can block another referendum indicates a complete lack of understanding of just how useful the UK's unwritten constitution can be.

malcolmg

asjohnstone said:

Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.

Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England

It's entirely by design.

They prefer to think he is stupid and pretend it is really not happening

Pulpstar

antifrank said:

scotslass said:

Indigo

The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.

Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?

Higher. There is only one paper that counts in Scotland though tbh.

malcolmg

TheWatcher said:

malcolmg said:

TheWatcher said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

JPJ2 said:

Having heard Salmond on both Marr and Monaghan, I would say (surprise!) that the Mail headline is a blatant lie.

I also see little or no resemblance to the Sheffield rally (this wasn't even a rally!)

I am sorry to say that Mike Smithson is no longer a useful interpreter of the political scene in Scotland, those Lib Dem blinkers are simply too effective.

AND, while people in England may still see Salmond as the SNP prime mover, the people of Scotland do not see Sturgeon as anything other than the leader she is.

Salmond is yesterday's man, Sturgeon should do us all a favour and instruct him to shut up and let her get on with the good job she's doing.

Nicola needs to grow a pair and put him back in his place. Salmond's clearly got issues with not being Top Dog anymore. Sad really.

You clowns are not really here for the politics are you.

Massive self awareness failure from Malky, king of the Turnips.

Better than being just a Turnip, or a swede in your case , don't you think

Flightpath

For once I find myself agreeing with Mr Smithson's comments. Has Salmond blown it?
Only a fool would vote Labour in England knowing that with their collapse in Scotland the Labour Party, the English, would be dictated to by the minority and far leftish SNP. Its probably worth separating out the SNP from Scotland here.
But equally will this boasting and plain divisiveness help the SNP in Scotland?
How can the Tories finesse this to their advantage north and south of the border?

The point I would make is that even with a significant number of seats in Scotland then Labour are always going to be running scared.

Dair

Pulpstar said:

antifrank said:

scotslass said:

Indigo

The Daily Hate is not respected in either Scotland or England. Nor is it by Mike. This thread is merely Mike's opportunity to continue his campaign to save something/anything from the Lib/Dem wreckage. I repeat nothing in the Mail or Mike's commentary reflects the interview which I watched yesterday.

Is the Daily Mail's circulation in Scotland higher or lower than that of The National?

Higher. There is only one paper that counts in Scotland though tbh.

I'm trying to work out what you mean by this.

The Sunday Post? Not any more.
The Daylate Record? Not any more.
The Super Soaraway Scottish Sun? Possibly?

Even if you mean in regional concentration, then both the P&J and Courier are very popular still (ridiculously so in the current market).

Flightpath

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?

Interesting.....

There will not be a second referendum.

Indigo

malcolmg said:

Indigo said:

The level of smugness and general hubris of the Nats is approaching suffocating. It's almost, almost, worth putting up with a Labour Majority government just to get that warm feeling of teeth being ground north of the border for another five years as no one cares what they think once more.

I thought you had won saddo, yet you seem a bit glum.

Only glum because Scotland is clearly another country, clearly doesn't want to be part of the UK, and yet couldn't get its act together and leave at the Indy Ref, and now we have to put up with the Nats mithering for another decade until you get another referendum and hopefully do it right next time.

Flightpath

asjohnstone said:

Doesn't every one realise that the SNP wants a tory administration, but can never say it.

Hence Salmond plays up stuff like this which will go down well in Scotland, but like a cup of cold sick in England

It's entirely by design.

I'd be surprised if it went down well in Scotland.

foxinsoxuk

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

Better have some better answers to the currency question and a few others prepared by then.

To lose one referendum is unfortunate, to lose a second could be fatal for the SNP.

Far better to work constructively for a workable devo-max, which appears to be what Scots actually want. I think that Sturgeon will find that easier to negotiate with the Conservatives.

Dair

Flightpath said:

MarqueeMark said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Dair said:

foxinsoxuk said:

MonikerDiCanio said:

It isn't necessary to remember Sheffield. Salmond organized street parties celebrating a Yes victory days before his historic defeat.

Also worth noting that the SNP are polling in the high 40's. The majority of Scots do not support the SNP, it is the FPTP system that will deliver the seats.

An absolute majority of Scotland votes for a Pro-Independence party now. Every poll demonstrates this - SNP + Green + SSP + Solidarity is over 50%.

Six months too late! Couldn't persuade them for the vote of a lifetime.

It's certainly delayed the inevitable but nothing is lost and the second referendum is just around the corner.

It will be interesting to see if the SNP use the momentum to call the second referendum in 2017 or if they wait till 18 or 19. Personally I prefer 2017 as the demographics alone will already be a Yes win even before you factor in the continued polling growth.

I suspect they will probably go for 2018 though.

This second referendum will be one not sanctioned by London?

Interesting.....

There will not be a second referendum.

There is no mechanism and no method by which you can stop it.

The precedent has already been set. And in the UK, with an unwritten constitution, precedent is everything.