politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local election preview

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Nice info on the goings on in Wales. Might as well have been Mars for as much as I knew about its politics.

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

I suspect it is because we are Lonsdale Fell Runners,and a quick Google found our website www.lonsdalefellrunners.co.uk and they made contact. They are obviously interested in Farron and his prospects if Clegg is deposed.
Emily is doing a series of runs with local clubs around the country.
I am in Morecambe and Lunesdale,but many of our runners are in Westmorland and Lonsdale,Farron country so hence the connection.

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

The alternative attitude denies the truth of the financial problem. How do you cut the deficit which is caused by overspending without cutting the overspending?

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

I suspect it is because we are Lonsdale Fell Runners,and a quick Google found our website www.lonsdalefellrunners.co.uk and they made contact. They are obviously interested in Farron and his prospects if Clegg is deposed.
Emily is doing a series of runs with local clubs around the country.
I am in Morecambe and Lunesdale,but many of our runners are in Westmorland and Lonsdale,Farron country so hence the connection.

I see why your area, but why are they interested in fell runners?

Emily likes her running,they planned to do a road run,but we talked her out of it,they did do a bit of filming on the road with the cameraman sat in the boot of the car,very entertaining. The rest of the filming was just some light off road stuff.All good fun,but on the serious side,our club attracts everyone from nuclear scientist,GPs engineers,self employed,Painter decorators,Postmen,etc,a very good cross section of voters.

Very surprised UKIP not standing in the Rhyl by-election. Would have thought it would be prime Kipper territory

Budget over...Mirror back to the important story...CLARKSON.... :-)

Don't they call themselves the intelligent tabloid or some such nonsense now?

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

I'm embarrassed for him.

Casino_Royale said:

I'm embarrassed for him.

@MarkReckons: So far no Lib Dems defending today's statement. Considering how many Lib Dems follow me that's very telling.

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

At the back of my mind, I wonder if the electorate might think ;"Tories have done their job; it's fixed now. Now, it's safe to get rid of them again. Phew, thank God that's over."

So it wouldn't surprise me if the Yougov is a "no change" - i.e. a tie, or even a small Labour lead.

BBC interview with Nicola Sturgeon Apparently she is terrified of dogs and was hurt by an MSPs insult that she 'has big hair and is a wee lassie!' Otherwise not a bad interview

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

He really did look a woeful and forlorn character lecturing an empty house with a nothing speech. Time for him to move on to other things.

91% book in Great Yarmouth

Cons EVS Coral
UKIP 10/3 Lads
Lab 9/2 b365

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!

Didn't one of the shadow bench throw a red book at him. Surely that is unparliamentary?

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

At the back of my mind, I wonder if the electorate might think ;"Tories have done their job; it's fixed now. Now, it's safe to get rid of them again. Phew, thank God that's over."

So it wouldn't surprise me if the Yougov is a "no change" - i.e. a tie, or even a small Labour lead.

Yeah me too.

Currystar - great piece of cchq speak there but most everyone I know has more debt racked up than ever. Just can't see cutting Govt debt as a vote winner but maybe I'm wrong. I've misjudged Ozzy/Cammie for best part of 2 yrs.

Haha I'm just speaking the truth. Is it the governments fault that people have got into debt?

Ed Miliband Failing To Get Message Out Because Of Right-Wing Media Bias, Says Alastair Campbell

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/19/ed-miliband-alastair-campbell_n_6901032.html

lol

So Cam going to be empty-chaired after all!

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

HYUFD said:

BBC interview with Nicola Sturgeon Apparently she is terrified of dogs and was hurt by an MSPs insult that she 'has big hair and is a wee lassie!' Otherwise not a bad interview

Impressive. I can't abide her politics but she comes across as a normal human being there without (crucially) obviously being a typical politician *trying to look like* a normal human being.

I can see why she might have appeal in Scotland; even more so than Salmond.

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Survation get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Dair said:

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

He really did look a woeful and forlorn character lecturing an empty house with a nothing speech. Time for him to move on to other things.

This better for his health nonsense from the Speaker is so pratty as to be infuriating. No doubt the Lib Dems thought this would be a good idea but they ended up looking irrelevant. Sad.

2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

Mirror hacking case 'unparalleled', High Court told

He told Mr Justice Mann it was the result of a conspiracy involving "teams of journalists" across three national newspapers: The Mirror, The Sunday Mirror and the People.

But he said it had been revealed in court that about 100 other people had come forward to bring claims against the group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31976227

Ed....Ed...I'm waiting....

Are the Mirror going to be able to afford all the payouts? Upto £400k the lawyers are asking per person.

NickPalmer said:

2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

It'll be 8% in 7 weeks time!!!!!

I'll take this pair of polls for my bets.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

They must have locked Newton Dunn in a cupboard all afternoon to stop him tweeting the news.

I'm not sure why you insist on flogging this dead horse, it's been shown to be bollocks more often than Ed Milliband has had a hot bacon butty.

GE2015 Scotland!

LAB 1.... CON 2!!!!

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Looks like we are on course for a reverse double un-crossover...!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Kippers tanking!

saddo said:

Tykejohnno said:

Ed Miliband Failing To Get Message Out Because Of Right-Wing Media Bias, Says Alastair Campbell

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/19/ed-miliband-alastair-campbell_n_6901032.html

lol

Campbell's becoming a sad old parody of himself. Old Al would never say such a thing about the media; he'd sort them out.

But Campbell got his lies out day in day out by bullying the media.. it just means Labour's media op is crap or that the media don't want to listen.

Hmm...could be a Budget bounce but not beyond bounds it could be natural variation. We'll have to see. Labour still in with a chance of an ELBOW lead this week.

I do like that Scottish poll.

MP_SE said:

Flightpath said:

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

What were the HR consultancies findings on Riger Bird's conduct?

Where is Roger Bird?

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

News has just reached George Osborne....

two weeks on the naughty step for you Mr Urquhart

HYUFD said:

Scott P According to Anthony Wells tonight's yougov gives Tory 295, Labour 309, LD 18. Subtract 30 Scottish seats from Labour and you get Tory 295, Labour 279, so probably a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply. I cannot see much else changing from now until polling day beyond the debates

Seat calculators.. pah..., I'd rather read Ave It's Watford predictions.

Ironically if Cameron had PR the Tory/UKIP total would be 48%, more than Labour and the LDs and Greens combined on 47%, so without Scotland and the SNP a Tory/UKIP government would be likely

Pong said:

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

You are the Anti Dan Hodges party and I claim my £5.. You haven't a good word to say for the Tories, ever, its always with clenched teeth when you can no longer avoid the evidence./

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.

Why?

Ave_it said:

GE2015 Scotland!

LAB 1.... CON 2!!!!

lol

#5moreyears

#cheerioed

#toprate20percentsoon

No interesting supplementary questions from Survation, I thought they'd ask about Labour ruling out a coalition with the SNP and what the preferred government of voters would be.

On the budget polling bounce itself, I'm surprised it has showed up so soon and I feel this could just be regular YouGov variation.

On why the Tories are still pushing austerity, well it's simple. The Tories are trusted by the public to fix the public finances and Labour are trusted to boost public services. If this election is framed around boosting public services and spending, they would be fighting on Labour's turf. In a dogfight over cutting spending the Tories can appeal to the 40-45% of people who think austerity is a necessity and try and consolidate as much of that as possible from the current Con/UKIP vote base while Labour will have to fight on Tory territory and either pledge to cut spending and turn their own base off, or pledge to increase spending and concentrate the minds of the 40-45% who could unite under the Tory banner and deliver them the most seats.

Framing the election around spending cuts and restraint gives the Tories a fighting chance, they absolutely have to ensure that Labour can't drag debate onto increasing spending and making higher borrowing acceptable which means they need to make it personal. Take the £40bn difference between the two plans and call it £2,500 additional tax/debt per household and drive that message home.