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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local election preview

Rhyl South West on Denbighshire (Lab defence)
Result of council at last election (2012): Labour 18, Independents 12, Conservatives 9, Plaid Cymru 7, Liberal Democrat 1 (No Overall Control, Labour short by 6)
Result of ward at last election (2012): E denotes elected
Labour: Pat Jones 797 E, Margaret McCarroll 647 E (70%)
Independents:

Read the full story here

adamandcat

1

SimonStClare

2

Ishmael_X

3 4 5

once I caught a fish alive

jayfdee

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

kle4

Nice info on the goings on in Wales. Might as well have been Mars for as much as I knew about its politics.

kle4

Nice info on the goings on in Wales. Might as well have been Mars for as much as I knew about its politics.

FrancisUrquhart

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

Flightpath

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

Flightpath

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

saddened

Flightpath said:

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

Good job their usp isn't that they are different from liblabcon, because that would be embarrassing and not a little Hypocritical.

jayfdee

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

I suspect it is because we are Lonsdale Fell Runners,and a quick Google found our website www.lonsdalefellrunners.co.uk and they made contact. They are obviously interested in Farron and his prospects if Clegg is deposed.
Emily is doing a series of runs with local clubs around the country.
I am in Morecambe and Lunesdale,but many of our runners are in Westmorland and Lonsdale,Farron country so hence the connection.

Charles

@bigjohnowls

Interesting that you chose to rely on part of a quote from someone rather than commenting on the official data that I linked to

Ave_it

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

Flightpath

jayfdee said:

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

I suspect it is because we are Lonsdale Fell Runners,and a quick Google found our website www.lonsdalefellrunners.co.uk and they made contact. They are obviously interested in Farron and his prospects if Clegg is deposed.
Emily is doing a series of runs with local clubs around the country.
I am in Morecambe and Lunesdale,but many of our runners are in Westmorland and Lonsdale,Farron country so hence the connection.

I see why your area, but why are they interested in fell runners?

Purseybear

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

Flightpath

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

The alternative attitude denies the truth of the financial problem. How do you cut the deficit which is caused by overspending without cutting the overspending?

currystar

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

So do you think people will vote for increases in borrowing?

Purseybear

Fp and currystar. Don't know & not sure people care that much. Arguments over how big govt borrowing is doesn't mean a lot to most pple. They want to see £££ back in their pockets. Income tax cut would've been the big tory winner.

Thing is, most households are racked up in debt [something the tory elite prob don't understand] so banging on about govt debt isn't gonna cut much ice.

jayfdee

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Flightpath said:

jayfdee said:

Quick plug me and my fellrunning club are on newsnight tonight,with Emily Maitlis,discussing the GE. We did about 2 hours filming,no doubt condensed to 2 minutes.
We did a bit of gentle running over Arnside Knot,and a bit of a chat outside the Pub,then retreated to a Cafe for refreshments
I prefer to stay anonymous,so you will have to guess who I am.
I never normally discuss politics with my friends,but I was surprised to hear the universal venom that was expressed towards UKIP.
We are in Farron country,where he is absolutely guaranteed to win,this is Labour lost deposit territory,but the cons will also fight their corner.

Is there a reason for Newsnight selecting you?

I suspect it is because we are Lonsdale Fell Runners,and a quick Google found our website www.lonsdalefellrunners.co.uk and they made contact. They are obviously interested in Farron and his prospects if Clegg is deposed.
Emily is doing a series of runs with local clubs around the country.
I am in Morecambe and Lunesdale,but many of our runners are in Westmorland and Lonsdale,Farron country so hence the connection.

I see why your area, but why are they interested in fell runners?

Emily likes her running,they planned to do a road run,but we talked her out of it,they did do a bit of filming on the road with the cameraman sat in the boot of the car,very entertaining. The rest of the filming was just some light off road stuff.All good fun,but on the serious side,our club attracts everyone from nuclear scientist,GPs engineers,self employed,Painter decorators,Postmen,etc,a very good cross section of voters.

chestnut

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

Labour were 25-30 points clear in March 1997. They won by 10.

They start level this time.

Austerity? 0% interest rates, frozen council tax, TV tax, falling food and petrol prices and tax free pay to £11k?

Garethofthevale

Very surprised UKIP not standing in the Rhyl by-election. Would have thought it would be prime Kipper territory

Purseybear

Jayfdee good for you. Lots of analogies of running to political races etc. Will work well. As you say too massive x-section of society are runners so fair play. Don't forget to record it.

FrancisUrquhart

Budget over...Mirror back to the important story...CLARKSON.... :-)

Don't they call themselves the intelligent tabloid or some such nonsense now?

Big_G_NorthWales

Purseybear said:

Fp and currystar. Don't know & not sure people care that much. Arguments over how big govt borrowing is doesn't mean a lot to most pple. They want to see £££ back in their pockets. Income tax cut would've been the big tory winner.

Thing is, most households are racked up in debt [something the tory elite prob don't understand] so banging on about govt debt isn't gonna cut much ice.

Don't rule it out of the manifesto - expect Inheritance Tax will be slashed plus moves to restrict child benefit both of which are very popular in recent surveys

Casino_Royale

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

I'm embarrassed for him.

currystar

Purseybear said:

Fp and currystar. Don't know & not sure people care that much. Arguments over how big govt borrowing is doesn't mean a lot to most pple. They want to see £££ back in their pockets. Income tax cut would've been the big tory winner.

Thing is, most households are racked up in debt [something the tory elite prob don't understand] so banging on about govt debt isn't gonna cut much ice.

Most households racked in debt? over the course of the last 5 years personal borrowing has reduced. In fact more people in this country now own their own home outright than have a mortgage on it. It does annoy me when people talk of the Tory elite . This government has been far more redistributive than the previous labour administration . Just look at the personal tax allowance and compare it to the last year of the labour government .

Scott_P

Casino_Royale said:

I'm embarrassed for him.

@MarkReckons: So far no Lib Dems defending today's statement. Considering how many Lib Dems follow me that's very telling.

Scott_P

@politicshome: Tomorrow's Daily Telegraph front page: 'Tories to take 1m out of 40p tax'
#tomorrowspaperstoday http://t.co/sEbqZlM3ju

Casino_Royale

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

At the back of my mind, I wonder if the electorate might think ;"Tories have done their job; it's fixed now. Now, it's safe to get rid of them again. Phew, thank God that's over."

So it wouldn't surprise me if the Yougov is a "no change" - i.e. a tie, or even a small Labour lead.

Ave_it

Scott_P said:

@politicshome: Tomorrow's Daily Telegraph front page: 'Tories to take 1m out of 40p tax'
#tomorrowspaperstoday http://t.co/sEbqZlM3ju

Go Conservative!!!

Next stop - scrap the Additional Rate!

I just missed the AR by £3,000 in 2014/2015!!

HYUFD

BBC interview with Nicola Sturgeon Apparently she is terrified of dogs and was hurt by an MSPs insult that she 'has big hair and is a wee lassie!' Otherwise not a bad interview

Purseybear

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

At the back of my mind, I wonder if the electorate might think ;"Tories have done their job; it's fixed now. Now, it's safe to get rid of them again. Phew, thank God that's over."

So it wouldn't surprise me if the Yougov is a "no change" - i.e. a tie, or even a small Labour lead.

Yeah me too.

Currystar - great piece of cchq speak there but most everyone I know has more debt racked up than ever. Just can't see cutting Govt debt as a vote winner but maybe I'm wrong. I've misjudged Ozzy/Cammie for best part of 2 yrs.

Dair

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

He really did look a woeful and forlorn character lecturing an empty house with a nothing speech. Time for him to move on to other things.

Flightpath

saddened said:

Flightpath said:

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

Good job their usp isn't that they are different from liblabcon, because that would be embarrassing and not a little Hypocritical.

Does the list include Jonathan Stanley
The UKIP election candidate,
''has resigned from the party claiming he is sick of 'open racism and bullying'. Mr Stanley lasted four months in his role as a political candidate for Westmorland and Lonsdale before denouncing his membership, claiming Ukip was 'not serious' about winning the seat. The Scotland-based surgeon said: 'I have given my full resignation to the party because of issues happening in Scotland: open racism and sanctimonious bullying within the party. This sectarian racist filth in Scotland needs cleaning up. it is a great threat to the Eurosceptic cause and civil society.' ''

isam

91% book in Great Yarmouth

Cons EVS Coral
UKIP 10/3 Lads
Lab 9/2 b365

jayfdee

Purseybear said:

Jayfdee good for you. Lots of analogies of running to political races etc. Will work well. As you say too massive x-section of society are runners so fair play. Don't forget to record it.

OH yes it will be recorded,we never talk politics when running,actually it is almost impossible to talk whilst out on the fells,and in the pub afterwards we talk about other things. Yes we have an excellent cross section of voters in the club,and the analogies to the political race are very apt.
It may be very embarassing,but we had fun filming.

RobD

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!

Didn't one of the shadow bench throw a red book at him. Surely that is unparliamentary?

FrancisUrquhart

Tick tick tick...

https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/578682972100018176

currystar

Purseybear said:

Casino_Royale said:

Purseybear said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I presume the lack of Tom Newton Dunn's tweets on post budget polling it will be Labour +1/+2.

I'm still not confident Ozzy / Cammie got this right for the tories. Last time the tories sorted out the economy and went to the country for more of the same they got a pasting. will people really want 5 more yrs austerity or might they say 'ta very much for sorting it now's time to chill and be nicer to people'? Don't know to be truthful but I was a bit disappointed by the budget if I'm honest.

At the back of my mind, I wonder if the electorate might think ;"Tories have done their job; it's fixed now. Now, it's safe to get rid of them again. Phew, thank God that's over."

So it wouldn't surprise me if the Yougov is a "no change" - i.e. a tie, or even a small Labour lead.

Yeah me too.

Currystar - great piece of cchq speak there but most everyone I know has more debt racked up than ever. Just can't see cutting Govt debt as a vote winner but maybe I'm wrong. I've misjudged Ozzy/Cammie for best part of 2 yrs.

Haha I'm just speaking the truth. Is it the governments fault that people have got into debt?

MP_SE

Flightpath said:

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

What were the HR consultancies findings on Riger Bird's conduct?

Tykejohnno

Ed Miliband Failing To Get Message Out Because Of Right-Wing Media Bias, Says Alastair Campbell

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/19/ed-miliband-alastair-campbell_n_6901032.html

lol

FrancisUrquhart

A real mixed bag of front pages tomorrow and very little focus on the budget / IFS analysis of it.

SMukesh

So Cam going to be empty-chaired after all!

Ave_it

All beginning to implode for Labour!

Next stop - restore personal allowance for everyone!!

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Osborne wins Budget personal bounce - 40% now say he is doing a good job, best rating since July 2010 (2/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Casino_Royale

HYUFD said:

BBC interview with Nicola Sturgeon Apparently she is terrified of dogs and was hurt by an MSPs insult that she 'has big hair and is a wee lassie!' Otherwise not a bad interview

Impressive. I can't abide her politics but she comes across as a normal human being there without (crucially) obviously being a typical politician *trying to look like* a normal human being.

I can see why she might have appeal in Scotland; even more so than Salmond.

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

News has just reached George Osborne....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAadoGTUgAEQQ0i.jpg:large

Scott_P

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Theuniondivvie

Survation a go go.

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Ave_it

Survation get in!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

FrancisUrquhart

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

They must have locked Newton Dunn in a cupboard all afternoon to stop him tweeting the news.

DavidL

Dair said:

Ave_it said:

Good to see Labour looking like a credible party of government!



https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_5vc36r6SOY

He really did look a woeful and forlorn character lecturing an empty house with a nothing speech. Time for him to move on to other things.

This better for his health nonsense from the Speaker is so pratty as to be infuriating. No doubt the Lib Dems thought this would be a good idea but they ended up looking irrelevant. Sad.

Flightpath

HYUFD said:

BBC interview with Nicola Sturgeon Apparently she is terrified of dogs and was hurt by an MSPs insult that she 'has big hair and is a wee lassie!' Otherwise not a bad interview

Poor dear. Imagine if she was Danny Alexander and all the 'beaker' insults. It would be amazing if it was anything other than a 'not bad' interview - a neatly quaffed and tailored sunlit windswept stroll along a beach. Frankly I thought it was politically pathetic ... regurgitating Thatcher and putting feminism to the forefront.
Interesting to see that her husband was general secretary of the SNP.

NickPalmer

2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

HYUFD

TUD David Clegg, is that the new leader of the Coalition?

FrancisUrquhart

Mirror hacking case 'unparalleled', High Court told

He told Mr Justice Mann it was the result of a conspiracy involving "teams of journalists" across three national newspapers: The Mirror, The Sunday Mirror and the People.

But he said it had been revealed in court that about 100 other people had come forward to bring claims against the group.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-31976227

Ed....Ed...I'm waiting....

Are the Mirror going to be able to afford all the payouts? Upto £400k the lawyers are asking per person.

Dair

Theuniondivvie said:

Survation a go go.

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Lol even bigger lead in the second Survation Scotland VI.

Creepy Jim must be ready to throw in the towel. Perhaps he will take a break from his 6 media appearances a day.

Ave_it

NickPalmer said:

2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

It'll be 8% in 7 weeks time!!!!!

SquareRoot

NickPalmer said:

2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

Tick tock Mr Palmer.. Tick tock.

Pulpstar

I'll take this pair of polls for my bets.

RobD

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

News has just reached George Osborne....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAadoGTUgAEQQ0i.jpg:large

Holy crap.

HYUFD

Casino Indeed, but unlike Salmond she is not really a dyed in the wool Scottish nationalist, she just sees independence as a means to an end, ie a more social democratic Scotland

saddened

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

They must have locked Newton Dunn in a cupboard all afternoon to stop him tweeting the news.

I'm not sure why you insist on flogging this dead horse, it's been shown to be bollocks more often than Ed Milliband has had a hot bacon butty.

saddo

Tykejohnno said:

Ed Miliband Failing To Get Message Out Because Of Right-Wing Media Bias, Says Alastair Campbell

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/19/ed-miliband-alastair-campbell_n_6901032.html

lol

Campbell's becoming a sad old parody of himself. Old Al would never say such a thing about the media; he'd sort them out.

DavidL

Theuniondivvie said:

Survation a go go.

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

That is pretty terrible still but is it not a slight recovery for Labour from recent polls that have had the SNP over 50 and Labour struggling to beat 20?

Ave_it

GE2015 Scotland!

LAB 1.... CON 2!!!!

FrancisUrquhart

saddened said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Successful Budget gives Osborne a record 20 point lead over Ed Balls as best Chancellor; 40% v 20% (3/3) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

They must have locked Newton Dunn in a cupboard all afternoon to stop him tweeting the news.

I'm not sure why you insist on flogging this dead horse, it's been shown to be bollocks more often than Ed Milliband has had a hot bacon butty.

Calm down, its just a bit of fun. You have to say, he can get a bit excitable old Newton Dunn though.

RobD

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

Looks like we are on course for a reverse double un-crossover...!

http://goo.gl/9RfFdf

Kippers tanking!

steve_garner

Wot no EICIPM, basilicious or tick tock?

SquareRoot

saddo said:

Tykejohnno said:

Ed Miliband Failing To Get Message Out Because Of Right-Wing Media Bias, Says Alastair Campbell

http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2015/03/19/ed-miliband-alastair-campbell_n_6901032.html

lol

Campbell's becoming a sad old parody of himself. Old Al would never say such a thing about the media; he'd sort them out.

But Campbell got his lies out day in day out by bullying the media.. it just means Labour's media op is crap or that the media don't want to listen.

kjohnw

when are we going to see Ed Miliband in Downfall, with his generals telling him its all gone wrong on the scottish front

Danny565

Hmm...could be a Budget bounce but not beyond bounds it could be natural variation. We'll have to see. Labour still in with a chance of an ELBOW lead this week.

FrancisUrquhart

Question...If Labour take the kinda of pounding the polling suggests in Scotland, what are the odds on another referendum in the next 5 years?

AlastairMeeks

I do like that Scottish poll.

MaxPB

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11484316/George-Osborne-Ed-Milibands-cost-of-living-election-pitch-has-been-demolished.html

An article for BJO. Note this:

"Mr Johnson said that the Tories and Labour are using two different measures to assess living standards.

Labour has claimed people's gross earnings are £1,600 less than they were in 2010, while the Tory figures are based on disposable incomes.

Mr Johnson said that while there is "much truth" in both figures, Mr Osborne's figures give a "fuller" picture of living standards."

From the head of the IFS.

Flightpath

MP_SE said:

Flightpath said:

FPT
ScotP said ...
''Not that anyone is counting

@GoodallGiles: #Ukip has now suspended 18 councillors, 14 candidates, 2 MEPs, 1 national secretary, 1 youth sec, 1 Scottish chair & an entire local branch''

Does that include Bird?

What were the HR consultancies findings on Riger Bird's conduct?

Where is Roger Bird?

HYUFD

Scott P According to Anthony Wells tonight's yougov gives Tory 295, Labour 309, LD 18. Subtract 30 Scottish seats from Labour and you get Tory 295, Labour 279, so probably a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply. I cannot see much else changing from now until polling day beyond the debates

Pong

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

MaxPB

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Survation a go go.

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

That is pretty terrible still but is it not a slight recovery for Labour from recent polls that have had the SNP over 50 and Labour struggling to beat 20?

No the SNP are up within the MOE in this poll. Only the subsamples in UK wide polls have Labour below 20 and the SNP above 50.

SimonStClare

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

News has just reached George Osborne....

two weeks on the naughty step for you Mr Urquhart

MikeSmithson

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

SquareRoot

HYUFD said:

Scott P According to Anthony Wells tonight's yougov gives Tory 295, Labour 309, LD 18. Subtract 30 Scottish seats from Labour and you get Tory 295, Labour 279, so probably a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply. I cannot see much else changing from now until polling day beyond the debates

Seat calculators.. pah..., I'd rather read Ave It's Watford predictions.

Theuniondivvie

HYUFD said:

TUD David Clegg, is that the new leader of the Coalition?

He's Daily Record pol editor - SLab through & through.

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 2 mins2 minutes ago
Exclusive: Bombshell Daily Record poll shows majority of Scots now support independence http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/exclusive-bombshell-daily-record-poll-5366657 …

HYUFD

Ironically if Cameron had PR the Tory/UKIP total would be 48%, more than Labour and the LDs and Greens combined on 47%, so without Scotland and the SNP a Tory/UKIP government would be likely

Ave_it

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

Keep on hoping Mike!

Theuniondivvie

Pong said:

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.

steve_garner

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

Must be the Tory collapse in England eh Mike.

SquareRoot

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

You are the Anti Dan Hodges party and I claim my £5.. You haven't a good word to say for the Tories, ever, its always with clenched teeth when you can no longer avoid the evidence./

RobD

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

Bet you're fun at parties

RobD

Theuniondivvie said:

Pong said:

Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

SNP 47
Labour 28
Conservatives 14
Liberal Democrats 4
UKIP 3
Greens 2

and

David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.

Why?

Casino_Royale

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@tnewtondunn: Excl: Budget wins Tories a poll bounce: up 3 points to lead by 2 - CON 35%, LAB 33%, UKIP 13%, LD 8%, GRN 6% (1/2) http://t.co/aK8oea32pg

News has just reached George Osborne....

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAadoGTUgAEQQ0i.jpg:large

It will dissipate, but on those numbers the English % score would be something like 34.5% to the Tories 38.5%.

That's barely a 1% decrease for the Tories in England on GE2010, but over a 6% rise for Labour. Or a roundabout a 4% swing.

It looks like those Lib Dem switchers again.

kjohnw

Ave_it said:

GE2015 Scotland!

LAB 1.... CON 2!!!!

lol

MikeL

Where has the other Survation been officially reported? Who is it for?

Ave_it

#5moreyears

#cheerioed

#toprate20percentsoon

HYUFD

SquareRoot Yes, Scotland though means seat predictors are less reliable

Artist

No interesting supplementary questions from Survation, I thought they'd ask about Labour ruling out a coalition with the SNP and what the preferred government of voters would be.

HYUFD

Chuka Umunna and Sajid Javid on QT tonight

MaxPB

On the budget polling bounce itself, I'm surprised it has showed up so soon and I feel this could just be regular YouGov variation.

On why the Tories are still pushing austerity, well it's simple. The Tories are trusted by the public to fix the public finances and Labour are trusted to boost public services. If this election is framed around boosting public services and spending, they would be fighting on Labour's turf. In a dogfight over cutting spending the Tories can appeal to the 40-45% of people who think austerity is a necessity and try and consolidate as much of that as possible from the current Con/UKIP vote base while Labour will have to fight on Tory territory and either pledge to cut spending and turn their own base off, or pledge to increase spending and concentrate the minds of the 40-45% who could unite under the Tory banner and deliver them the most seats.

Framing the election around spending cuts and restraint gives the Tories a fighting chance, they absolutely have to ensure that Labour can't drag debate onto increasing spending and making higher borrowing acceptable which means they need to make it personal. Take the £40bn difference between the two plans and call it £2,500 additional tax/debt per household and drive that message home.

kjohnw

MikeSmithson said:

So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

lets see where we are in seven days when its filtered through