Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield’s local election preview

24

Comments

  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited March 2015
    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seems to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    :lol::lol::lol: cont p94
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,116
    edited March 2015
    TUD Sensational new poll when only last month they had No narrowly ahead by the same margin and Yes is still on 45% before don't knows are excluded, so sensational for Daily Record PR machine yes, not much beyond that

    Shame about David Clegg he would be the ideal candidate for the Coalition
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,527
    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Why?
    An almost identical poll taken over almost the same period by the same pollster? What's the point?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Why?
    An almost identical poll taken over almost the same period by the same pollster? What's the point?
    Surely that is a good thing, less chance of an outlier. Anyway, they are a business and don't do this as a charity.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,527
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    Anyway, they are a business and don't do this as a charity.

    No shit, I hadn't realised that.



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    Ed Balls. "I would reverse none of this budget"

    Roger's record remains untarnished...
  • 2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

    As a matter of interest why hasn't labour commented on the hacking by Trinity Mirror Group
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232

    RobD said:

    Anyway, they are a business and don't do this as a charity.

    No shit, I hadn't realised that.

    So why expect them not to take someones money when offered? It's not as if they used the same numbers for both polls.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

    Possibly because the Tories remain on 35 and Labour have climbed 2 whilst UKIP has dropped 1.
    Alternatively Labour had a 1 point lead last Wednesday.

    Poll leads need to factor in the BBC's publicity. I think the trend will still be too close to call again by next week. The Conservatives need to start campaigning.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    HYUFD said:

    Scott P According to Anthony Wells tonight's yougov gives Tory 295, Labour 309, LD 18. Subtract 30 Scottish seats from Labour and you get Tory 295, Labour 279, so probably a Tory minority government with LD and DUP confidence and supply. I cannot see much else changing from now until polling day beyond the debates

    I think you'd have about 35 Con marginals falling to Labour on a 4% swing*. Offset by 10 Lib Dem gains for Labour, and 12 for the Tories, a further 4 Tory losses to UKIP, and at least 26 Labour losses to the SNP.

    So Tories 278, Labour 277, Lib Dems 25, SNP 40.

    *assuming something special with further poll moves, late anti-Miliband swing, turnout or incumbency doesn't shave off another 20 seats in the Tories favour
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Voodoo poll alert: Scots Labour propaganda rag has 64.5% saying they'll vote SNP on their poll :D
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    That's good for Ed.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    every attack line from labour has now failed, 5million unemployed - fail, too far too fast -fail, double dip - fail, triple dip - fail, cost of living crisis - fail, 1930s levels of cuts - fail, weaponise the NHS - fail, HSBC deeds of variation gate - fail, Ed Miliband - FAIL
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046

    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.

    I too mourn the passing of Grammar Schools but the prize for the person who closed the most goes to one Margaret Thatcher.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,741

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Why?
    An almost identical poll taken over almost the same period by the same pollster? What's the point?
    But WHERE is the 2nd poll?

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    'I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.'

    Not 'till they are pretty close to going below 200 seats'?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

    As a matter of interest why hasn't labour commented on the hacking by Trinity Mirror Group
    Maybe somebody would like to ask Ed's spin doctor for a comment about what it was like to work at the Mirror during this time? I mean he only worked at the Mirror during the 10 years this industrial scale hacking was going on.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Ave_it said:

    'I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.'

    Not 'till they are pretty close to going below 200 seats'?

    226-250 seats if Labour is going to take a pounding please.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,496
    edited March 2015

    So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

    Think we need to wait for the weekend polls to really see how the budget has gone down, but the ratings for George look very good. Whether that translates into people wanting to give the Tories another go remains to be seen....

    It's possible the general view could be "well done, now p*ss off"! :smiley:

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Tabman said:

    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.

    I too mourn the passing of Grammar Schools but the prize for the person who closed the most goes to one Margaret Thatcher.

    Every Government for the last fifty years is to blame, but Williams and others began the process and she should be shamed not wheeled out to give her warped opinions.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tabman said:

    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.

    I too mourn the passing of Grammar Schools but the prize for the person who closed the most goes to one Margaret Thatcher.

    Welcome back Tabman!

    Are you the same one who used to post here in 2005?

    Are you still LD? :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    edited March 2015
    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    All that will do is concentrate the minds of the 40-45% of people in the country who believe austerity is a necessity. If Labour are going to push the cuts line it won't help them. It hasn't helped them for the last 5 years and I don't see why it would start now, if anything it would just make them look even more irresponsible. Clearly Ed Balls agrees which is why he has accepted all of the budget measures.
    GIN1138 said:

    So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

    Think we need to wait for the weekend polls to really see how the budget has gone down, but the ratings for George look very good. Whether that translates into people wanting to give the Tories another go remains to be seen....

    It's possible the general view could be "well done, now p*ss off"! :smiley:

    The whole point the Tories are pushing more cuts and austerity is to avoid this very fate. "The job isn't done, don't squander all of our gains!".
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SMukesh said:

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.

    Ed Balls "I would reverse none of this budget"
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Ave_it said:

    Tabman said:

    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.

    I too mourn the passing of Grammar Schools but the prize for the person who closed the most goes to one Margaret Thatcher.

    Welcome back Tabman!

    Are you the same one who used to post here in 2005?

    Are you still LD? :lol:
    I've taken over his body!
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

    As a matter of interest why hasn't labour commented on the hacking by Trinity Mirror Group
    Maybe somebody would like to ask Ed's spin doctor for a comment about what it was like to work at the Mirror during this time? I mean he only worked at the Mirror during the 10 years this industrial scale hacking was going on.
    It's an uneasy stand off. The second Ed lisps 'Coulson', Baldwins name will be scatter gunned across the media.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Im about half an hour into the Trevor Philips programme... I take it he says 'enoch was right' at some point?

    Or maybe if he reads PB he'll say 'isam was right' ... He is saying all the things that Tim et al slaughtered me for
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Labour will announce more tax rises to plug a £1.5 billion gap left by George Osborne’s raid on its campaign war-chest, a senior figure in the party said yesterday.

    The chancellor stole two of Labour’s key money-raising measures to fund his own giveaways for first-time buyers, savers and workers in Wednesday’s budget.

    Ed Balls yesterday chose to match all the handouts, even though that leaves a hole in funding earmarked for policies such as the pledge to cut tuition fees.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4387525.ece

    I expect the Tories will hammer tax rises till they are pretty close to a majority...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
    Well Osborne has briefed the Telegraph about taking a million out of 40p tax band. I presume there are other things he is going to claim the Lib Dem's wouldn't sign off.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Maybe we'll have printz back soon!

    And ColinW (also known as ColinC) :lol:
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    edited March 2015
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    The most curious thing about the LibDem alternative budget stunt - apart from how it got past the inevitable 'Err, wouldn't that make us look a bit silly?' objection - is that Danny A actually had a seriously good announcement to make today about clamping down on tax avoidance and evasion, which has been thrown away.

    Oh well.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    The lady from the Tax Payers Alliance should not be allowed any form of human contact in her role as she is an appalling speaker.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Labour will announce more tax rises to plug a £1.5 billion gap left by George Osborne’s raid on its campaign war-chest, a senior figure in the party said yesterday.

    The chancellor stole two of Labour’s key money-raising measures to fund his own giveaways for first-time buyers, savers and workers in Wednesday’s budget.

    Ed Balls yesterday chose to match all the handouts, even though that leaves a hole in funding earmarked for policies such as the pledge to cut tuition fees.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4387525.ece

    I expect the Tories will hammer tax rises till they are pretty close to a majority...

    New Banker's Bonus Tax?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,741
    Peston on BBC1 10pm started off bad for Con but then put up a graph showing National Debt much higher under Lab - so all in all not too bad.

    But what was hilarious was that the National Debt figures were for 2035/36 - NOT a typo!

    When we can't forecast what will happen over the next 12 months how crazy is it to even talk about what the figures may be in 20 years time!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
    Indeed, the spending rises pencilled in for 2018/19 and 2019/20 would easily be able to cover a real terms spending increase for the NHS and possibly even meeting the 2% military spending target by the end of spending period. Neutralise Labour's strong point and appeal to traditional Tory values with phantom numbers that Labour have no answer to. Sounds like an Osborne ploy.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Shirley Williams seems to be.... less sharp than she once was.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    So... twice as many people want Osborne to be Chancellor as Balls. No one want Miliband to be PM. Everyone hates Clegg. 55% of Scotland want to stay in the union 100% of English people want EVEL. The Green leader cannot walk and chew gum at the same time and UKIP have just lost 2 more candidates on the same day.
    To be honest if only Cameron were the most popular of the party leaders I'd be tempted to put a bet on the Tories to win.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,527
    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Why?
    An almost identical poll taken over almost the same period by the same pollster? What's the point?
    But WHERE is the 2nd poll?

    http://tinyurl.com/lnqvobe
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    The most important figures to be released tomorrow will be the results of Biogen's report on the first full data in human trials from research on BIIB037 at an Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease conference in Nice, France. A billion dollar bet by the company but more important for millions of sufferers and their families.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624

    2-point Tory lead as I suggested earlier. I think it'll be maintained on Saturday, then slide back to a tie.

    As a matter of interest why hasn't labour commented on the hacking by Trinity Mirror Group
    Maybe somebody would like to ask Ed's spin doctor for a comment about what it was like to work at the Mirror during this time? I mean he only worked at the Mirror during the 10 years this industrial scale hacking was going on.
    It's an uneasy stand off. The second Ed lisps 'Coulson', Baldwins name will be scatter gunned across the media.
    So far it is interesting that Tories haven't attacked appointment of Baldwin. Obviously not directly, but through dark arts. Lots of material about him in Ashcroft's book.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    James Chapman (Mail) @jameschappers

    .@Survation for Record has SNP extending lead: SNP 47 LAB 26 CON 16 LIB 4. Voters would back independence 45/43 in a second #indyref

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    MikeL said:

    Peston on BBC1 10pm started off bad for Con but then put up a graph showing National Debt much higher under Lab - so all in all not too bad.

    But what was hilarious was that the National Debt figures were for 2035/36 - NOT a typo!

    When we can't forecast what will happen over the next 12 months how crazy is it to even talk about what the figures may be in 20 years time!

    Long-term Economic Plan!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Just checked the dates.

    First Survation Scotland VI published today was 10th to 16th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 28
    19pts

    Second Survation Scotland VI was 12th to 17th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 26
    21pts
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,449
    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
    Indeed, the spending rises pencilled in for 2018/19 and 2019/20 would easily be able to cover a real terms spending increase for the NHS and possibly even meeting the 2% military spending target by the end of spending period. Neutralise Labour's strong point and appeal to traditional Tory values with phantom numbers that Labour have no answer to. Sounds like an Osborne ploy.
    That's my view. There was an awful lot of cash he didn't pledge to spend on Wednesday. He might want to match the £30bn pa projected NHS "funding gap" in its entirety (or at least a fair chunk of it) with the savings from the fiscal consolidation.

    He'll say Labour could never afford to do it. So the NHS will be better off in Tory hands.

    I don't think he'll commit to the 2% target for defence, because it's too expensive, but I do expect some sort of additional pledge on defence. Perhaps on army numbers.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years, why would it suddenly do so now? People just don't believe Labour on the economy. It is why Ed Balls accepted the budget measures and Ed Miliband has not been seen or heard while it is all still in the news. He will pop up next week some time and make a speech about the NHS and completely ignore the economy because Labour can't win on the economy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    No UKIP on QT - Do they rotate them and the Lib Dem these days ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,232
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    Just checked the dates.

    First Survation Scotland VI published today was 10th to 16th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 28
    19pts

    Second Survation Scotland VI was 12th to 17th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 26
    21pts

    So up at 1% a day? 100% come May 7th??
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    MaxPB said:

    DavidL said:

    Survation a go go.

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    That is pretty terrible still but is it not a slight recovery for Labour from recent polls that have had the SNP over 50 and Labour struggling to beat 20?
    No the SNP are up within the MOE in this poll. Only the subsamples in UK wide polls have Labour below 20 and the SNP above 50.
    Two IPSOS Mori telephone polls had the SNP on 52%
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Trevor Phillips C4 documentary is a shocker for Labour.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,741

    MikeL said:

    RobD said:

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Why?
    An almost identical poll taken over almost the same period by the same pollster? What's the point?
    But WHERE is the 2nd poll?

    http://tinyurl.com/lnqvobe
    Thanks - so they are both for Daily Record?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
    Indeed, the spending rises pencilled in for 2018/19 and 2019/20 would easily be able to cover a real terms spending increase for the NHS and possibly even meeting the 2% military spending target by the end of spending period. Neutralise Labour's strong point and appeal to traditional Tory values with phantom numbers that Labour have no answer to. Sounds like an Osborne ploy.
    That's my view. There was an awful lot of cash he didn't pledge to spend on Wednesday. He might want to match the £30bn pa projected NHS "funding gap" in its entirety (or at least a fair chunk of it) with the savings from the fiscal consolidation.

    He'll say Labour could never afford to do it. So the NHS will be better off in Tory hands.

    I don't think he'll commit to the 2% target for defence, because it's too expensive, but I do expect some sort of additional pledge on defence. Perhaps on army numbers.
    On the 2% target I think he will make it an aspiration to be above the target by the end of the spending period and make no mention of the in between years where there will be no pledge to maintain 2%. It will give him the headlines without committing real money.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    MP_SE said:

    The lady from the Tax Payers Alliance should not be allowed any form of human contact in her role as she is an appalling speaker.

    Seems fine from here, pointing out some sensible money saving policies to my mind tbh. But neither Labour nor Conservatives are going to touch the triple lock/winter fuel with a barge poll
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Pong said:

    Please someone, correct me if I'm wrong, but there appear to be 2 survation polls out tonight.

    SNP 47
    Labour 28
    Conservatives 14
    Liberal Democrats 4
    UKIP 3
    Greens 2

    and

    David Clegg ‏@davieclegg 48s48 seconds ago
    New @Survation / Daily Record poll Westminster voting intention: SNP 47%; LAB 26%; CON 16%; LD 4%; OTHER 7% #GE2015

    Yep, there are 2. Bit naughty of Survation not to let one or other of their clients know.
    Technically they're both for the same client - The Labour Party. One for its Daily Record unit, one for its Unison unit.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Pulpstar said:

    No UKIP on QT - Do they rotate them and the Lib Dem these days ?

    Pulpstar said:

    No UKIP on QT - Do they rotate them and the Lib Dem these days ?

    I think the shouty woman from the Taxpayers Alliance is filling in.

    Shirley Williams is well past her sell by date.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years.
    The worry may be that it doesn't have to cut through for everyone, just a few. So long as Labour bafflingly hold on to the 'no cuts' crowd, and the 'maybe the Labour cuts won't be as bad because Labour don't get an erection from hurting people unlike the Tories' crowd, that few should be enough.

  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited March 2015
    Chuka is shifting awkwardly in his seat everytime the conversation goes back to Wikipedia entries.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    Sajid Javid to Will Self: "I have worked for the minimum wage actually" Maybe Self has no idea about Sajid's upbringing #bbcqt

    Why do the bbc keep bringing this prat on.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years, why would it suddenly do so now? People just don't believe Labour on the economy. It is why Ed Balls accepted the budget measures and Ed Miliband has not been seen or heard while it is all still in the news. He will pop up next week some time and make a speech about the NHS and completely ignore the economy because Labour can't win on the economy.
    Mate.Do you guys even live in the real world?

    If it was all going so swimmingly and Labour`s campaign wasn`t working,why did your genius chancellor had to row back from his supposed austerity measures in the autumn statement?
  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Ave_it said:

    Maybe we'll have printz back soon!

    And ColinW (also known as ColinC) :lol:

    Bring back Rik and Jack W!

    Whatever happened to Mike Smithson???
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,116
    Casino Clearly it will be potentially very close to the last minute
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    @isam - Grays in Essex Question Time :D

    Aker on ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,116
    Tykejohnno So Yes on 45% as in September
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    GIN1138 said:

    So YouGov post budget CON lead is just half what it was at the start of last week

    Think we need to wait for the weekend polls to really see how the budget has gone down, but the ratings for George look very good. Whether that translates into people wanting to give the Tories another go remains to be seen....

    It's possible the general view could be "well done, now p*ss off"! :smiley:

    It may be one glass of chablis too many, but i have lost track, yougov now have the tories with a two point lead. Which is half the level of last week ?? So last week was four points, Did i miss that.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    MikeL said:

    Peston on BBC1 10pm started off bad for Con but then put up a graph showing National Debt much higher under Lab - so all in all not too bad.

    But what was hilarious was that the National Debt figures were for 2035/36 - NOT a typo!

    When we can't forecast what will happen over the next 12 months how crazy is it to even talk about what the figures may be in 20 years time!

    That is pretty hilarious. Honestly I don't know how anyone with an economic forecast even bothers.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Kjohn

    "every attack line from labour has now failed"

    Well every news bulletin managed to contain the snippet that depending on the fraction of a percent you use will determine whether we're talking about Osborne taking spending back to the early sixties or the early thirties!

    This was usually followed by Danny Alexander mentioning "Cathy Come Home". Not exactly a great sell for us Ken Loach fans
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    HYUFD said:

    Tykejohnno So Yes on 45% as in September

    Add the don't knows to "No" imo.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,624
    edited March 2015
    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years, why would it suddenly do so now? People just don't believe Labour on the economy. It is why Ed Balls accepted the budget measures and Ed Miliband has not been seen or heard while it is all still in the news. He will pop up next week some time and make a speech about the NHS and completely ignore the economy because Labour can't win on the economy.
    It did work to some extent last time though. Fear is a powerful driver as we saw with Scottish Independence Referendum.

    Tories promising huge cuts, Labour are promising no cuts after next year...Both are bollocks, but people don't understand much beyond this kind of level and the media don't really explain it.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    MikeL said:

    Peston on BBC1 10pm started off bad for Con but then put up a graph showing National Debt much higher under Lab - so all in all not too bad.

    But what was hilarious was that the National Debt figures were for 2035/36 - NOT a typo!

    When we can't forecast what will happen over the next 12 months how crazy is it to even talk about what the figures may be in 20 years time!

    I take your point, but if Brown had had a care for figures 20 years ahead in 2000 then we would not have been in this mess in the first place. Where Brown was thinking was just to 2006 when he wanted to become leader. To make matters worse he kept the careless spending going until he had bludgeoned everyone into submission.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    Osborne will want to spike Labour's guns on the NHS. Then Labour will have nowhere else to run to.

    I predict a big spending commitment in the coming weeks on that for the manifesto, linked to the LTEP natch.

    He'll turn a strategic weakness for the Tories into a strength. That would be pure Osborne as well.
    Indeed, the spending rises pencilled in for 2018/19 and 2019/20 would easily be able to cover a real terms spending increase for the NHS and possibly even meeting the 2% military spending target by the end of spending period. Neutralise Labour's strong point and appeal to traditional Tory values with phantom numbers that Labour have no answer to. Sounds like an Osborne ploy.
    That's my view. There was an awful lot of cash he didn't pledge to spend on Wednesday. He might want to match the £30bn pa projected NHS "funding gap" in its entirety (or at least a fair chunk of it) with the savings from the fiscal consolidation.

    He'll say Labour could never afford to do it. So the NHS will be better off in Tory hands.

    I don't think he'll commit to the 2% target for defence, because it's too expensive, but I do expect some sort of additional pledge on defence. Perhaps on army numbers.
    On the 2% target I think he will make it an aspiration to be above the target by the end of the spending period and make no mention of the in between years where there will be no pledge to maintain 2%. It will give him the headlines without committing real money.
    The cost to the military in providing humanitarian assistance around the world and for training foreign troops should be paid for out of the Aid budget.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    Will Self the ISIS apologist.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @iainmartin1: Privately educated Will Self sneering at comprehensive boy @sajidjavid over the minimum wage. Classic @bbcquestiontime
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Tabman said:

    Ave_it said:

    Maybe we'll have printz back soon!

    And ColinW (also known as ColinC) :lol:

    Bring back Rik and Jack W!

    Whatever happened to Mike Smithson???
    Martin Day would be unbearable at this time for the lib dems for a comeback ;-)

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years.
    The worry may be that it doesn't have to cut through for everyone, just a few. So long as Labour bafflingly hold on to the 'no cuts' crowd, and the 'maybe the Labour cuts won't be as bad because Labour don't get an erection from hurting people unlike the Tories' crowd, that few should be enough.

    AKA the 35% strategy. Not sure it works without Scotland delivering ca. 50 seats. I believe Labour are campaigning mainly on the NHS because they realise that as well. Ed Miliband hasn't been seen since yesterday afternoon because I don't think he wants to be associated with any kind of campaigning on economic issues.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024

    Scott_P said:

    This was a good day for Ed Balls...

    @OliverCooper: Twice as many people want George Osborne to be Chancellor (40%) as want Ed Balls (20%). Britain wants a man with a plan. #bbcqt

    So... twice as many people want Osborne to be Chancellor as Balls. No one want Miliband to be PM. Everyone hates Clegg. 55% of Scotland want to stay in the union 100% of English people want EVEL. The Green leader cannot walk and chew gum at the same time and UKIP have just lost 2 more candidates on the same day.
    To be honest if only Cameron were the most popular of the party leaders I'd be tempted to put a bet on the Tories to win.
    Yeah, to be honest despite my insistence upon being pessimistic about Tory fortunes, there are polls like that which suggest they really should be doing a lot better as individually and on important measures they seem to do great in some places, and yet that stubborn brand problem remains one of the biggest factors in, remarkably, making even a most seats win very hard for them.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    Tabman said:

    Ave_it said:

    Maybe we'll have printz back soon!

    And ColinW (also known as ColinC) :lol:

    Bring back Rik and Jack W!

    Whatever happened to Mike Smithson???
    I think he's gone Labour!!!! :lol:
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    Roger said:

    Kjohn

    "every attack line from labour has now failed"

    Well every news bulletin managed to contain the snippet that depending on the fraction of a percent you use will determine whether we're talking about Osborne taking spending back to the early sixties or the early thirties!

    This was usually followed by Danny Alexander mentioning "Cathy Come Home". Not exactly a great sell for us Ken Loach fans

    Those dates mean nothing to most people. Ditto that film title. 'Cathy? Was she on the X Factor?'
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Self the ISIS apologist.

    The woman in the audience claiming Islamist extremism has nothing to do with Islam... Noone called her out on those comments. Disgraceful attitude, nothing to do with Islam, nothing to see here, move along...
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Iain Martin @iainmartin1

    I don't want to be abusive, but Will Self is such a pillock. @bbcquestiontime

  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Dair said:

    Just checked the dates.

    First Survation Scotland VI published today was 10th to 16th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 28
    19pts

    Second Survation Scotland VI was 12th to 17th March.
    SNP 47, Labour 26
    21pts

    Correction the first poll was 6th to 10th of March so no overlap, Labour just slipping week to week.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 97,024
    MaxPB said:

    kle4 said:

    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years.
    The worry may be that it doesn't have to cut through for everyone, just a few. So long as Labour bafflingly hold on to the 'no cuts' crowd, and the 'maybe the Labour cuts won't be as bad because Labour don't get an erection from hurting people unlike the Tories' crowd, that few should be enough.

    AKA the 35% strategy. Not sure it works without Scotland delivering ca. 50 seats.
    Granted, that does make it even riskier than it was before, when it was foolish to rely on it, but pretty achievable. Serves them right for being complacent in the heartlands I guess even if, amazingly, it is still possible for them to win without, and still more likely than a Tory win.

    Now you mention it, I hadn't noticed Ed M has been so low key since yesterday. Come on Ed, you really aren't that bad, stop listening to the spin doctors telling you to stay away.
  • perdixperdix Posts: 1,806
    Tabman said:

    Just got in and turned on QT to see the disgusting Shirley Williams is on.

    I loathe that woman, the demise of social mobility lies squarely at her door, yet she she will grandstand like some grandee we should all admire. She destroyed the hopes of bright working class kids but the BBC wheel her out so she can feel important.

    I would happily shoot her.

    I too mourn the passing of Grammar Schools but the prize for the person who closed the most goes to one Margaret Thatcher.

    I believe it was the Local Authorities in Thatcher's time who were responsible for the grammar school closures.

  • TabmanTabman Posts: 1,046
    Pulpstar said:

    Will Self the ISIS apologist.

    He was owned by the young Iranian woman.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Pulpstar said:

    @isam - Grays in Essex Question Time :D

    Aker on ?

    Hope so, though more likely they'll get Russell Brand on, that's his manor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,448
    SMukesh said:

    MaxPB said:

    SMukesh said:

    SMukesh said:

    Roger said:

    Been listening to a lot of radio news to-day. Seemed to be going much better for Labour. Not exactly coming apart for George but the gloss is being replaced with some pretty searching questions.

    If yesterday was St George's day today was definitely Balls.

    In my view,George and Cameron have totally lost it.

    I suspect Labour will hammer on spending cuts till they are pretty close to a majority.
    Are Labour planning to reverse the cuts? Balls said he agreed with the budget.

    It is not this budget that`s the problem for Con.

    It is the fact that George is having to make spending cuts twice as deep in the next Parliament that is going to scare the horses.

    George was crazy to make his intent clear in the Autumn statement and Labour will and must exploit it to the full.
    Again, Labour's Tory cuts mantra hasn't cut through for 5 years, why would it suddenly do so now? People just don't believe Labour on the economy. It is why Ed Balls accepted the budget measures and Ed Miliband has not been seen or heard while it is all still in the news. He will pop up next week some time and make a speech about the NHS and completely ignore the economy because Labour can't win on the economy.
    Mate.Do you guys even live in the real world?

    If it was all going so swimmingly and Labour`s campaign wasn`t working,why did your genius chancellor had to row back from his supposed austerity measures in the autumn statement?
    I'm not a Tory. If I were it would be a very unhappy marriage...

    Also, in the real world Labour are the least trusted party on the economy and Osborne has a 20 point lead on economic competence over Balls. The cuts message isn't cutting through. If it was Labour would be 10 points up in the polls and Osborne would have taken a penny off the basic rate yesterday. The reason behind Osborne reducing the final year surplus isn't because of Labour's Tory cuts crap, it is because of Labour's highly effective NHS campaigning. That extra money is all going to be spent on the NHS to neutralise Labour's strongest campaigning tool.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012

    The most curious thing about the LibDem alternative budget stunt - apart from how it got past the inevitable 'Err, wouldn't that make us look a bit silly?' objection - is that Danny A actually had a seriously good announcement to make today about clamping down on tax avoidance and evasion, which has been thrown away.

    Oh well.

    But it sums up their 5 wasted years as a coalition partner. Once gain they trash their own government. They the LDs are a wing of government. They think they can get re elected by behaving as if the last 5 years have been like a plot out of Dallas. They think the electorate will behave like Pam and wake up on polling day to see a reanimated Clegg walk through the door who did not run over by a Tory SUV. It was all a dream.

    Who are they kidding?
    As a wing of government that might want to have influence in government they need to bank such influence as they have had and get on with supporting themselves and the govt in the election.
    They have thrown away the opportunity that coalition gave them. The rump of their support don't care. They deserve oblivion - not for being libdems but for wasting whatever it is they stand for. They are pointless.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Shirley Williams advocating prefabs. Has Hitler been bombing for six years to create a housing problem?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,740
    £1300 a month for a bedsit ?

    Croydon must be cheaper than Hammersmith lol
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,808


    Paul Waugh @paulwaugh

    Sajid Javid to Will Self: "I have worked for the minimum wage actually" Maybe Self has no idea about Sajid's upbringing #bbcqt

    Why do the bbc keep bringing this prat on.

    Er. How? The minimum wage was introduced in 1998. By this time Sajid was about 29 years old. According to his wiki page after university (approx. age 21) he "immediately" went to work for Chase bank, followed by a stellar career at Deutshe bank and then politics.

    So, when exactly did this MP work for the minimum wage?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Matt has seen a leaked copy of the Labour blank sheet of paper manifesto

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/matt/
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Pulpstar said:

    £1300 a month for a bedsit

    I'd love to see a panellist call a questioner a fantasist or liar
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 125,116
    edited March 2015
    Tykejohnno But he also brings an interesting perspective and is not afraid to speak his mind
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Denbigshire Rhyl South West

    Labour 474
    Conservative 131
    Plaid Cymru 62
    Independent 52
    Liberal Democrats 26


This discussion has been closed.