politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 prospects for Clegg, Salmond, and Farage are all

rottenborough said:

I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?

You're not being thick, it's a question I would like to know the answer to. When you get an ISA you have to give them you're NI number. I'm not sure that's true with other accounts, but presumably something will have to be put in place to work out how much interest any one person's earned from any number of accounts.

OblitusSumMe said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

Interesting moves on transport in the South-West in The Budget on P.47:

"1.167 The Secretary of State for Transport will shortly set out details of the new franchise for
the Great Western Route, which will introduce the new £3 billion Intercity Express
trains, more frequent services and faster journey times. "

It sounds to me like electrification will either be extended into Devon and Cornwall, so the Hitachi Super Express trains (or similar) can operate there (expensive) or they'll purchase a new fleet of Class 220/221 Voyagers. Both would require some signalling/infrastructure tweaks.

Interestingly, there are still ongoing discussions going on about £7bn of infrastructure upgrades too from what I read. I imagine that includes the back-up route from Exeter-Plymouth.

"1.168 Transport: The government has asked the South West Peninsula Task Force
on rail to consider improvements to the Exeter to Salisbury line as part of its work.
The government also encourages the relevant local authorities and Local Enterprise
Partnership to develop a business case for investment in the North Devon Link road,
to form the basis of a future application to the Local Growth Fund."

Probably a bit more duelling of track, and more frequent services. Could help with marginal seats in North Devon, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Mid Dorset, Taunton etc. all of which aren't far away.

About a third (I think) of the terrible IEP trains are going to be dual-mode: i.e. they operate on electric power or diesel for when they're away from the knitting, so electrification might not be needed past Bristol.

But note the 'Great Western route' might just mean the London-Bristol-South Wales route, not the spur off past Exeter into Cornwall.

I'd said on here they might actually announce something concrete on the Dawlish problem at the budget - I was wrong.

The thing I found most interesting about the Network Rail options paper on Dawlish was that they made clear that the line has more problems than just Dawlish. It's vulnerable all the way up the Exe estuary, and it has been flooded in Somerset and north of Exeter too in recent years.

So the work on the Waterloo line to Salisbury will be helpful as it provides a less vulnerable route out of Devon.

The Dartmoor route interests me. It's very hard to make a case purely on the basis of a diversionary route, but clearly it opens up the prospect of supporting greater development in Okehampton, Crediton and especially Tavistock. Together with the weekending crowd, there probably is value in reinstatement. Presumably Tavistock to Exeter journey times would be substantially less direct than via Plymouth?

Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.

I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.

RochdalePioneers said:

Robert_Of_Sheffield said:

So Labour are accusing the Conservatives of having secret plans for massive spending cuts. Historically, how well does this kind of accusation work?

To me, it has always smacked of desperation. It's always possible to accuse your opposite numbers of having secret plans, and near impossible for them to prove you wrong, so I''d expect undecided voters to dismiss the accusation as 'just what you'd expect them to say', unless they're already leaning your way.

It probably wouldn't work. Except that
a) The Tories told us they wouldn't raise VAT. And then did
b) The Tories are trying to deny there have been massive spending cuts this parliament despite the gutting of funding to real things that people use, and
b) The Tories are planning massive spending cuts after the election. They've dulled the impact slightly since the autumn statement by selling our things and promising not to have quite as big a surplus, but as noone believes these forecasts anyway (as Osborne has consistently missed them by a country mile) we're back to intent.

Believe me, on the doorstep, people have felt the cuts that the Tories try and claim haven't happened this parliament. They're worried what is to come. So yes, it works.

Can you give examples?

whilst I (on what would be classed as a very good salary) have less money in my pocket I haven't noticed a reduction in services (and please bear in mind I do have children all with special needs - which were not well served by the State even at the height of Labours spendfest)

My team live in a variety of areas and earn a variety of salaries and no none sees a huge difference in the services they use. The lowest paid have obviously seen an improvement in how much tax this government has taken off them - unlike the last Labour government thanks to that master of the universe Gordon Brown.

Other than spend more money via the same tax 5 or 6 times with no guarantee of improved outcomes) what do you think Labour are offering us?

They are clowns who have learnt nothing from their last period in office and they need longer to "learn lessons" ( i think that is the preferred Labour term for doing nothing after getting things really wrong).

On it being dull: worth noting a 'giveaway' could have cut both ways. If austerity must be done, I'd guess people would prefer the Conservatives to do it. If they want a party to spend a lot, they'll vote Labour.

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.

“The campaign the Tories are fighting — simplistic, repetitive, dull, muscular, negative — is all Crosby and so was yesterday’s budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent watchdog, said the measures will have no ‘material impact on the economy’. It was a political statement designed to persuade people that the economy was broken and is now fixed, or at least nearly fixed. It offered no solution to the housing crisis. No answer to Britain’s productivity weaknesses. No explanation of how the still historically large deficit will eventually be closed.” – Tim Montgomerie, The Times (£)

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

£10 Farron special

I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)

First taker gets it.

You think it will be highest, or won't be? Because I think it will be, so am happy to take the bet if you want the other side. But if I've just misunderstood you then sadly no bet.

We're on the same side of this one

Interesting suggestion - the only one I can see beating it is Orkney and Shetland - but the Scottish situation is sufficiently fluid that that's a bit of a coin toss.

Lennon said:

Pulpstar said:

Quincel said:

Pulpstar said:

£10 Farron special

I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)

First taker gets it.

You think it will be highest, or won't be? Because I think it will be, so am happy to take the bet if you want the other side. But if I've just misunderstood you then sadly no bet.

We're on the same side of this one

Interesting suggestion - the only one I can see beating it is Orkney and Shetland - but the Scottish situation is sufficiently fluid that that's a bit of a coin toss.

You can have Orkney and Shetland if you like.

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details.

The OBR explicitly excluded them from the numbers. if you include them the 'rollercoaster' disappears, but the Lib Dems didn't want them in the numbers

Dadge said:

OldKingCole said:

Roger, there are some people who vote according to whether the country is to be governed in the interets of all, or of the fortunate. The present Conservative party comes across as very definitely governing in the interests of the latter.
IMHO the problem for the LD’s is that they used to be tjhought of as being in the "interests of all” camp but keeping company with the Tories is ruining that perception!

Indeed. The LDs have lost half their supporters to Labour not because they went into coalition with the Tories but because they've allowed the Tories to behave as if they have a majority.

Spot on.

@rcs1000

You may have looked at this - I haven't but philosophically it strikes me as a good idea:

from PwC: legislation will be included in the Finance Bill to make sure that all sums which arise to investment fund managers for their services are charged to income tax

If they are going after tax treatment of carried interest that could potentially have a huge impact on a bunch of things. (Doesn't affect me one way or the other)

DavidL said:

Casino_Royale said:

DavidL said:

The hyperbole on both sides is designed to hide the fact that the British public are not really getting a choice of policies at all. They are simply getting a choice of leadership.

..and values.

Edit: How did I do that!

Purseybear said:

Plato said:

I was very pleased at the Budget. They don't change much bar the mood music - it seemed to spike Labour's guns which suits me fine.

TGOHF said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.

I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.

Will be interesting to see how this works out - the bedwetters who want cheap giveaways as they watch the polls vs the steady as she goes Crosbyites.

There's a lot of times the past two years when Cameron and Osborne have been accused of making mistakes only to find they have played blinders.

p.s. Cons May 2015 = Bibi Netanyahu all over again?

Yet they are at best level with the crappiest leader in the history of crappiness!!

Mr Financier, there’s a lot of that with which I agree, especially "Increasing technology will continue to eliminate jobs - often those in the middle - whilst there will be jobs for the innovators and creators and the sweepers-up/". Somewhere I’ve got Eric Schmidt’s book on the future, in which he talks about the average worker doing presentations for their clients who will be in other countries. (Or something like that). You have, mate, I thought, never been to Tilbury!

I suggest, incidentally that part of Wales problem is the result of the 30’s. A lot of the brightest and best, and often the good average, left, seeing little or no hope, especially in the coalfields. Rather like Ireland, which has only prospered, I suggest, because of a tax regime which encouraged high earning companies to come, and then didn’t manage it properly.

JackW said:

First.

Like all three in their seats.

JackW - as I live and breathe ... how are you my dear old thing?

Front page of BBC Ed Balls says there was nothing in a "pretty empty" Budget that Labour would reverse, as the pre-election battle over the economy steps up a gear.

"Balls 'won't reverse any of Budget'"

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31956459

Interesting approach - re-run of Ed Osborne and George Balls.

Scott_P said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details.

The OBR explicitly excluded them from the numbers. if you include them the 'rollercoaster' disappears, but the Lib Dems didn't want them in the numbers

Then the political mistake is to have kept to that profile. Just as Osborne made his "1930s" mistake in the autumn statement. Basic political errors of presentation.

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see electionforecast gives the Tories a 34% chance of taking Bath, and the Lib Dems holding by a 3% margin (35% LD and 32% Tory)

This is still my favoured black swan at 7/2. Like Harrogate and Winchester, a posh Spa town/city with an incumbent standing down that might easily fall.

A constitutency poll might be nice, although might also flatter the LDs if not everyone has realised Don Foster is standing down yet.

"The phantom incumbency"

Yep I thought Foster standing down could make it a deep Tory gain and have a cheeky fiver on this at 6s

electionforecast and electoralcalculus.co.uk disagree. They may agree on the Lib.Dems being about 67% likely to hold Bath. But look at their different probabilities of the Tories winning it.

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

I see electionforecast gives the Tories a 34% chance of taking Bath, and the Lib Dems holding by a 3% margin (35% LD and 32% Tory)

This is still my favoured black swan at 7/2. Like Harrogate and Winchester, a posh Spa town/city with an incumbent standing down that might easily fall.

A constitutency poll might be nice, although might also flatter the LDs if not everyone has realised Don Foster is standing down yet.

"The phantom incumbency"

Yep I thought Foster standing down could make it a deep Tory gain and have a cheeky fiver on this at 6s

electionforecast and electoralcalculus.co.uk disagree. They may agree on the Lib.Dems being about 67% likely to hold Bath. But look at their different probabilities of the Tories winning it.

I assume you'll be filling your boots on Labour at 150-1 with William Hills then ?

On the effect of the cuts, I was at a Bus Passenger Advisory Panel meeting in Essex recently. Until relatively recently, apparently, the County had a database of planned road closures which it could, and did, communicate to bus operators. That central advice has now been scrapped, as a cost saving measure, and the bus operators present were saying, in response to passenger rep complaints that “they just didn’t know” when service disruption might occur. There were other similar issues, none big in themselves, but enough to leave the passenger reps somewhat dismayed.

How do Labour explain a million people in the public sector losing their jobs and the vast majority of the population not noticing, how much was that costing the country?

Pulpstar said:

@Rural_Voter You'll also want to pile on Labour in Cambridge and get on the Tories in Westmorland at the bookies.

Or a pink tie with yellow spots

So, Ed Balls says he will not reverse flagship budget measures.

"Ed Balls, what is he good for , absolutely nothing .... say it again"

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

@Rural_Voter You'll also want to pile on Labour in Cambridge and get on the Tories in Westmorland at the bookies.

Or a pink tie with yellow spots

My point is if you've been placing bets entirely off the back of Electoral Calculus then you're heading to the poorhouse come May 7th.

Pulpstar said:

bigjohnowls said:

Pulpstar said:

@Rural_Voter You'll also want to pile on Labour in Cambridge and get on the Tories in Westmorland at the bookies.

Or a pink tie with yellow spots

My point is if you've been placing bets entirely off the back of Electoral Calculus then you're heading to the poorhouse come May 7th.

Agreed

Betting post: Dan Jarvis (next Labour leader) was on Betfair for 23/1 this morning. Only small sums being offered, so I took what I could.

He had very positive write-up in Newstatesman recently. Ex-army - serious service in Afghanistan, safe seat in Barnsley (where he won the nomination through hard door-step work and much to many people's surprise as not local or a former miner etc etc). Brought up kids on his own when wife died. If Labour lose and there is a huge searching of hearts about a fresh energetic leader who can connect and has had a life outside of the bubble, then he might appear through the muddle.

So, my next Lab leader bets are on Alistair Darling (cash now lost), Liz Kendall and Dan Jarvis (both outsiders who have shown no interest in running as yet). Long shot stuff.

chestnut said:

The press front pages are pretty supportive of the budget, while even the left wing element are having difficulty drumming up a truly negative theme.

Who would have thunk Tory press supports Tory budget.

Mirror, Guardian, and the i don't.

What a turn up

Monksfield said:

OblitusSumMe said:

JosiasJessop said:

About a third (I think) of the terrible IEP trains are going to be dual-mode: i.e. they operate on electric power or diesel for when they're away from the knitting, so electrification might not be needed past Bristol.

But note the 'Great Western route' might just mean the London-Bristol-South Wales route, not the spur off past Exeter into Cornwall.

I'd said on here they might actually announce something concrete on the Dawlish problem at the budget - I was wrong.

The thing I found most interesting about the Network Rail options paper on Dawlish was that they made clear that the line has more problems than just Dawlish. It's vulnerable all the way up the Exe estuary, and it has been flooded in Somerset and north of Exeter too in recent years.

So the work on the Waterloo line to Salisbury will be helpful as it provides a less vulnerable route out of Devon.

The Dartmoor route interests me. It's very hard to make a case purely on the basis of a diversionary route, but clearly it opens up the prospect of supporting greater development in Okehampton, Crediton and especially Tavistock. Together with the weekending crowd, there probably is value in reinstatement. Presumably Tavistock to Exeter journey times would be substantially less direct than via Plymouth?

Have you seen the Network Rail study? It's quite comprehensive.

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Artist said:

The DUP may be in the debate, but Lib Dems not.



"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."

http://labourlist.org/2015/03/new-debates-schedule-leaders-face-first-grilling-next-week-but-no-miliband-v-cameron/

I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?

Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way

If you look at probable votes, UKIP >>> Lib Dems
If you look at probable seats, SNP >>> Lib Dems

I can't see an argument as to why the Lib Dems should dine at the same table as Labour and the Tories.

In fact the only one i can think of is that there is a subconscious institutional bias (I've noted it on the radio recently) towards the status quo from the BBC in particular - it is always Conservative, Labour and then Lib Dem viewpoint considered in that order.

Their heads will explode come May 7th.

I think the lib dems can fairly say they should have the chance to defend their record in govt

If it were about democracy and common sense the uk wide debates would be con, lab, lib dem & Ukip. The national parties in Wales Scotland and NI would get regional debates and maybe join the greens and the rest of the ofcom minors in a challengers debate if they're lucky

Morris_Dancer said:

Welcome back, Mr. Tabman.

Edited extra bit: and my condolences on your loss.

Thanks you Mr D - it's good to be back.

Pulpstar said:

TGOHF said:

rottenborough said:

I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?

Is the change not more about HMRC paperwork ? - if you are PAYE you now don't need to be doing a tax return to pay the extra tax of £5.82 of savings interest from your current account.

The savings change is the best part of the budget, costs the treasury tuppence, ha'penny and makes cash ISAs pointless.

It costs about £1bn per year, which is more than the Treasury brings in by the change to the Pension rules on lifetime allowances.

Finally, we have the ICM tables.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_march15.pdf

Adjusting for the squeeze question, the Conservatives lead Labour 38/36 in England, and in England and Wales.

I note no UKIP candidate selected for Barnsley Central yet.

@Tabman - Just to add to the chorus of "welcome back"
@Pulpstar - Just to confirm I'm No for the bet - was a theoretical 'the only one which could possibly beat is...'

Sean_F said:

Finally, we have the ICM tables.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_march15.pdf

Adjusting for the squeeze question, the Conservatives lead Labour 38/36 in England, and in England and Wales.

Labour heavily hurt by the turnout filter.

chestnut said:

The press front pages are pretty supportive of the budget, while even the left wing element are having difficulty drumming up a truly negative theme.

Are you expecting a big, sustained Budget bounce in the polls?

I don't have a definite view myself. We should see whatever sort of bounce there is in YouGov tonight, and then potentially a bit more in Friday's Populus. By the middle of next week we should see if there's been a lasting effect. My guess is a short-term moderate bounce which subsides back to the even split, but who knows? Anecdotally, the number of constituents who've written to me about any aspect of it is one, a sole trader (he asked if we'd promise to keep 20% corporation tax - I said no, I couldn't promise that throughout the Parliament, and he said OK, that's honest, I'll vote for you, but please don't make it 25%).

JackW said:

chestnut said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31956459

Labour accept Tory budget.

Going back to the last Conservative budget in 1997 seems a bit odd, even for the two Eds ?!?

It was a good one, though.

Richard_Nabavi said:

JackW said:

chestnut said:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31956459

Labour accept Tory budget.

Going back to the last Conservative budget in 1997 seems a bit odd, even for the two Eds ?!?

It was a good one, though.

You mean the Conservatives might have lost another forty seats in 1997 otherwise ?

BTW .... in the picture of you on the last thread were you in the custody of Inspector Clouseau ?

isam said:

JEO said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Artist said:

The DUP may be in the debate, but Lib Dems not.



"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."

http://labourlist.org/2015/03/new-debates-schedule-leaders-face-first-grilling-next-week-but-no-miliband-v-cameron/

I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?

Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way

Given UKIP are now classified as a major party, they surely have grounds to be in whatever 'debate' the big three are in.

Difficult to see how the beeb can justify a three way QT style thing given ofcom

UKIP's lawyers could scupper the debates....

Sean_F said:

Finally, we have the ICM tables.

http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_march15.pdf

Adjusting for the squeeze question, the Conservatives lead Labour 38/36 in England, and in England and Wales.

I think that's the first time I've seen UKIP pick up more ex-Labour voters than ex-Tory voters.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

JEO said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Artist said:

The DUP may be in the debate, but Lib Dems not.



"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."

http://labourlist.org/2015/03/new-debates-schedule-leaders-face-first-grilling-next-week-but-no-miliband-v-cameron/

I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?

Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way

Given UKIP are now classified as a major party, they surely have grounds to be in whatever 'debate' the big three are in.

Difficult to see how the beeb can justify a three way QT style thing given ofcom

UKIP's lawyers could scupper the debates....

I think UKIP should just go along with what ever happens. I don't particularly like the idea of Farage being up against a QT audience without being able to get a few shots at the other leaders. Probably best to let the BBC do what it wants and maybe score a few points from it looking anti-UKIP.

MarqueeMark said:

isam said:

JEO said:

isam said:

TGOHF said:

Artist said:

The DUP may be in the debate, but Lib Dems not.



"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."

http://labourlist.org/2015/03/new-debates-schedule-leaders-face-first-grilling-next-week-but-no-miliband-v-cameron/

I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?

Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way

Given UKIP are now classified as a major party, they surely have grounds to be in whatever 'debate' the big three are in.

Difficult to see how the beeb can justify a three way QT style thing given ofcom

UKIP's lawyers could scupper the debates....

Ins't Farage on the previous interview programme ?