I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?
Redundant for most people.
That's what I thought. I'm sure the savings industry who bombard us with ISA adverts are delighted this morning.
I'd prefer to have money inside an ISA rather than rely on the personal savings allowance - less political risk to it being exempt from tax going forward, greater protection against circumstances changing (interest rates going up,becoming a 40% taxpayer with reduced allowance etc).
OBR highlights the non-sensical nature of Osborne's 'rollercoaster' public spending plans with swingeing cuts in the first two years followed by the biggest increases in public spending in the last 10 years occurring in the last year of the next parliament.
Public services face five-year 'rollercoaster', OBR chairman says
Such spending plans will cause immense difficulties for public sector organisations (or for any organsation for that matter)
When interviewed on Sky Osborne seemed to row back on such observations suggesting it would be 'evened out'. So exactly what are the Tories spending plans going to be and where are they going to cut (Osborne was not forthcoming about that either this morning)?
I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?
You're not being thick, it's a question I would like to know the answer to. When you get an ISA you have to give them you're NI number. I'm not sure that's true with other accounts, but presumably something will have to be put in place to work out how much interest any one person's earned from any number of accounts.
Listened to whole of budget with my finance remit but from political pov I'm wondering if it lost the tories the election.
Strange reaction I know but just think it was a bit anti-climax. Osborne shunned big giveaway in favour of tackling the national debt. But do Brits want another 5 yrs austerity? Last time we got to a great economic sitn from tories, 1997, we gave em the boot. Could same occur again?
May be wrong. Usually am about the tories. It may be genius e.g. if they're going after labours out of control spending. It could be very clever for media memes and all that.
Just feel a bit deflated by it. Don't ordinary pple want a bit back?
Interesting moves on transport in the South-West in The Budget on P.47:
"1.167 The Secretary of State for Transport will shortly set out details of the new franchise for the Great Western Route, which will introduce the new £3 billion Intercity Express trains, more frequent services and faster journey times. "
It sounds to me like electrification will either be extended into Devon and Cornwall, so the Hitachi Super Express trains (or similar) can operate there (expensive) or they'll purchase a new fleet of Class 220/221 Voyagers. Both would require some signalling/infrastructure tweaks.
Interestingly, there are still ongoing discussions going on about £7bn of infrastructure upgrades too from what I read. I imagine that includes the back-up route from Exeter-Plymouth.
"1.168 Transport: The government has asked the South West Peninsula Task Force on rail to consider improvements to the Exeter to Salisbury line as part of its work. The government also encourages the relevant local authorities and Local Enterprise Partnership to develop a business case for investment in the North Devon Link road, to form the basis of a future application to the Local Growth Fund."
Probably a bit more duelling of track, and more frequent services. Could help with marginal seats in North Devon, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Mid Dorset, Taunton etc. all of which aren't far away.
About a third (I think) of the terrible IEP trains are going to be dual-mode: i.e. they operate on electric power or diesel for when they're away from the knitting, so electrification might not be needed past Bristol.
But note the 'Great Western route' might just mean the London-Bristol-South Wales route, not the spur off past Exeter into Cornwall.
I'd said on here they might actually announce something concrete on the Dawlish problem at the budget - I was wrong.
The thing I found most interesting about the Network Rail options paper on Dawlish was that they made clear that the line has more problems than just Dawlish. It's vulnerable all the way up the Exe estuary, and it has been flooded in Somerset and north of Exeter too in recent years.
So the work on the Waterloo line to Salisbury will be helpful as it provides a less vulnerable route out of Devon.
The Dartmoor route interests me. It's very hard to make a case purely on the basis of a diversionary route, but clearly it opens up the prospect of supporting greater development in Okehampton, Crediton and especially Tavistock. Together with the weekending crowd, there probably is value in reinstatement. Presumably Tavistock to Exeter journey times would be substantially less direct than via Plymouth?
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?
Is the change not more about HMRC paperwork ? - if you are PAYE you now don't need to be doing a tax return to pay the extra tax of £5.82 of savings interest from your current account.
So Labour are accusing the Conservatives of having secret plans for massive spending cuts. Historically, how well does this kind of accusation work?
To me, it has always smacked of desperation. It's always possible to accuse your opposite numbers of having secret plans, and near impossible for them to prove you wrong, so I''d expect undecided voters to dismiss the accusation as 'just what you'd expect them to say', unless they're already leaning your way.
It probably wouldn't work. Except that a) The Tories told us they wouldn't raise VAT. And then did b) The Tories are trying to deny there have been massive spending cuts this parliament despite the gutting of funding to real things that people use, and b) The Tories are planning massive spending cuts after the election. They've dulled the impact slightly since the autumn statement by selling our things and promising not to have quite as big a surplus, but as noone believes these forecasts anyway (as Osborne has consistently missed them by a country mile) we're back to intent.
Believe me, on the doorstep, people have felt the cuts that the Tories try and claim haven't happened this parliament. They're worried what is to come. So yes, it works.
Can you give examples?
whilst I (on what would be classed as a very good salary) have less money in my pocket I haven't noticed a reduction in services (and please bear in mind I do have children all with special needs - which were not well served by the State even at the height of Labours spendfest)
My team live in a variety of areas and earn a variety of salaries and no none sees a huge difference in the services they use. The lowest paid have obviously seen an improvement in how much tax this government has taken off them - unlike the last Labour government thanks to that master of the universe Gordon Brown.
Other than spend more money via the same tax 5 or 6 times with no guarantee of improved outcomes) what do you think Labour are offering us?
They are clowns who have learnt nothing from their last period in office and they need longer to "learn lessons" ( i think that is the preferred Labour term for doing nothing after getting things really wrong).
On it being dull: worth noting a 'giveaway' could have cut both ways. If austerity must be done, I'd guess people would prefer the Conservatives to do it. If they want a party to spend a lot, they'll vote Labour.
Roger, there are some people who vote according to whether the country is to be governed in the interets of all, or of the fortunate. The present Conservative party comes across as very definitely governing in the interests of the latter. IMHO the problem for the LD’s is that they used to be tjhought of as being in the "interests of all” camp but keeping company with the Tories is ruining that perception!
How does the threshold at which you pay tax being raised to £11,000 remotely fit with your narrative? The fortunate get paid way more than this.
How does creating 2 million jobs remotely fit with your narrative? The fortunate already have jobs. The very fortunate don't need them.
How does the top 1% paying 27% of all tax remotely fit your narrative?
How does granting rights of gay marriage to bring about equality in our society fit your narrative?
How does meeting our pledge to international aid targets fit your narrative? The fortunate are those who shout loudest against this policy.
How does ring-fencing the funding for the NHS fit your narrative? The fortunate already had BUPA.
Today's Conservative Party - working together with the LibDems - have five years of Government they should be rightly proud of. Proud that it has been one of the most redistributive in decades. Certainly far more than the last Labour Govt.
Post of the year!
Mr Mark is spot on. I grow tired of the lazy lies from Labour. And, appropriately enough, I grow intolerant of UKIP's turgid attempts to put them in power. The Labour hearlands faithful are not going to be tempted by UKIPs appeals (Farage has foolishly said he would prop up the tories, purely to garner tory votes) - certainly not in the marginals where a split vote might lose them seats. And for all of what the polls say now, come election day will Labour's Scottish vote collapse as suggested? It deserves to - but will it after 4 weeks of electioneering? The seats up for real grabs may well turn out to be the LibDems ones. But in the end if people do not vote tory then its inevitable that we will get a Miliband/Balls government. This is why Labour have to misrepresent the Tories and pray on their bended knees every night to Saint Nigel.
If Tim M's against it probably means Osborne's played a blinder then. Like his friend Ashcroft he's so bitter about the Cameron project it clouds his vision.
If Tim M's against it probably means Osborne's played a blinder then. Like his friend Ashcroft he's so bitter about the Cameron project it clouds his vision.
“The campaign the Tories are fighting — simplistic, repetitive, dull, muscular, negative — is all Crosby and so was yesterday’s budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent watchdog, said the measures will have no ‘material impact on the economy’. It was a political statement designed to persuade people that the economy was broken and is now fixed, or at least nearly fixed. It offered no solution to the housing crisis. No answer to Britain’s productivity weaknesses. No explanation of how the still historically large deficit will eventually be closed.” – Tim Montgomerie, The Times (£)
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
Will be interesting to see how this works out - the bedwetters who want cheap giveaways as they watch the polls vs the steady as she goes Crosbyites.
I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)
First taker gets it.
You think it will be highest, or won't be? Because I think it will be, so am happy to take the bet if you want the other side. But if I've just misunderstood you then sadly no bet.
We're on the same side of this one
Interesting suggestion - the only one I can see beating it is Orkney and Shetland - but the Scottish situation is sufficiently fluid that that's a bit of a coin toss.
I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?
Is the change not more about HMRC paperwork ? - if you are PAYE you now don't need to be doing a tax return to pay the extra tax of £5.82 of savings interest from your current account.
The savings change is the best part of the budget, costs the treasury tuppence, ha'penny and makes cash ISAs pointless.
I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)
First taker gets it.
You think it will be highest, or won't be? Because I think it will be, so am happy to take the bet if you want the other side. But if I've just misunderstood you then sadly no bet.
We're on the same side of this one
Interesting suggestion - the only one I can see beating it is Orkney and Shetland - but the Scottish situation is sufficiently fluid that that's a bit of a coin toss.
Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details.
The OBR explicitly excluded them from the numbers. if you include them the 'rollercoaster' disappears, but the Lib Dems didn't want them in the numbers
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
Will be interesting to see how this works out - the bedwetters who want cheap giveaways as they watch the polls vs the steady as she goes Crosbyites.
Roger, there are some people who vote according to whether the country is to be governed in the interets of all, or of the fortunate. The present Conservative party comes across as very definitely governing in the interests of the latter. IMHO the problem for the LD’s is that they used to be tjhought of as being in the "interests of all” camp but keeping company with the Tories is ruining that perception!
Indeed. The LDs have lost half their supporters to Labour not because they went into coalition with the Tories but because they've allowed the Tories to behave as if they have a majority.
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
Will be interesting to see how this works out - the bedwetters who want cheap giveaways as they watch the polls vs the steady as she goes Crosbyites.
There's a lot of times the past two years when Cameron and Osborne have been accused of making mistakes only to find they have played blinders. I reckon my misgivings about the budget could prove wrong come May 7th.
p.s. Cons May 2015 = Bibi Netanyahu all over again?
You may have looked at this - I haven't but philosophically it strikes me as a good idea:
from PwC: legislation will be included in the Finance Bill to make sure that all sums which arise to investment fund managers for their services are charged to income tax
If they are going after tax treatment of carried interest that could potentially have a huge impact on a bunch of things. (Doesn't affect me one way or the other)
The hyperbole on both sides is designed to hide the fact that the British public are not really getting a choice of policies at all. They are simply getting a choice of leadership.
“The campaign the Tories are fighting — simplistic, repetitive, dull, muscular, negative — is all Crosby and so was yesterday’s budget. The Office for Budget Responsibility, an independent watchdog, said the measures will have no ‘material impact on the economy’. It was a political statement designed to persuade people that the economy was broken and is now fixed, or at least nearly fixed. It offered no solution to the housing crisis. No answer to Britain’s productivity weaknesses. No explanation of how the still historically large deficit will eventually be closed.” – Tim Montgomerie, The Times (£)
Monty complains but offers no solutions. Improvements in productivity will take time. Government cannot flick a switch and achieve improvements .A disciplined approach to the economy with steady improvements could make it happen.
Having closed the door on Labour's inadequate revenue sources, by using the lifetime pension allowance and a bank levy, the question to Labour will unremittingly be, "Where's the money coming from to pay for it all?"
The answer will be borrowing.
"So, the last five years was for nothing? You're just going to do the same thing that helped create the mess?"
An election losing strategy.
Economic ratings and leadership ratings will come home to roost.
Can I repeat yet again that Labour increased spending in real terms by 50% between 2000 and 2010. Its difficult to see where any of that left anyone any better off. Brown ran deficits to pay for it when he should have been paying down debt. This is why we are where we are now. Labour cannot credibly say they can repeat the process and spend more and borrow more in these circumstances.
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
Will be interesting to see how this works out - the bedwetters who want cheap giveaways as they watch the polls vs the steady as she goes Crosbyites.
There's a lot of times the past two years when Cameron and Osborne have been accused of making mistakes only to find they have played blinders.
p.s. Cons May 2015 = Bibi Netanyahu all over again?
Yet they are at best level with the crappiest leader in the history of crappiness!!
I had lunch with a friend yesterday and because it was budget day we slightly meandered into politics. I even asked him who he would be voting for. He's reasonably well off-his house is worth over a million-and he takes the Telegraph.
He said he wasn't sure. He thought Labour had a better front bench team but the Tories had a better leader. He didn't rate Labour's leader at all. He voted Lib Dem last time but wouldn't again.
He's in advertising so unlikely to have a social conscience and is as far away from a media trot as it's possible to be. As we wound up the conversation he said his wife was probably going to vote Labour this time so in all likelihood he'd do the same............
This person earns well into a six figure salary and I know not everyone is as hooked on the minutiae of politics as we are on here. But I think if I was a politician and he's as typical as I suspect then you might as well just throw your tea leaves in the air
Sounds like he is a sandwich short of a picnic and surprising he has a job at all. Name one even remotely competent person on their front bench.
Liz Kendall?
Small but perfectly formed, and a real star performer.
Mr Financier, there’s a lot of that with which I agree, especially "Increasing technology will continue to eliminate jobs - often those in the middle - whilst there will be jobs for the innovators and creators and the sweepers-up/". Somewhere I’ve got Eric Schmidt’s book on the future, in which he talks about the average worker doing presentations for their clients who will be in other countries. (Or something like that). You have, mate, I thought, never been to Tilbury!
I suggest, incidentally that part of Wales problem is the result of the 30’s. A lot of the brightest and best, and often the good average, left, seeing little or no hope, especially in the coalfields. Rather like Ireland, which has only prospered, I suggest, because of a tax regime which encouraged high earning companies to come, and then didn’t manage it properly.
I had lunch with a friend yesterday and because it was budget day we slightly meandered into politics. I even asked him who he would be voting for. He's reasonably well off-his house is worth over a million-and he takes the Telegraph.
He said he wasn't sure. He thought Labour had a better front bench team but the Tories had a better leader. He didn't rate Labour's leader at all. He voted Lib Dem last time but wouldn't again.
He's in advertising so unlikely to have a social conscience and is as far away from a media trot as it's possible to be. As we wound up the conversation he said his wife was probably going to vote Labour this time so in all likelihood he'd do the same............
This person earns well into a six figure salary and I know not everyone is as hooked on the minutiae of politics as we are on here. But I think if I was a politician and he's as typical as I suspect then you might as well just throw your tea leaves in the air
Sounds like he is a sandwich short of a picnic and surprising he has a job at all. Name one even remotely competent person on their front bench.
Liz Kendall?
Small but perfectly formed, and a real star performer.
Yep. I have money on her. Long shot, but who knows who might break through in the chaos of a Labour loss.
I wonder if the days of budgets being gamechangers are increasingly over. There was a time when people received news via a few outlets - papers, BBC and it was almost impossible to avoid the hoo haa and the minutiae of it all.
In these days of iplayer, internet and social media it's very easy for the whole thing to pass by whilst barely registering with many people. These days the impact of politics is very much about mood and in that context, both main parties struggle to inspire.
Front page of BBC Ed Balls says there was nothing in a "pretty empty" Budget that Labour would reverse, as the pre-election battle over the economy steps up a gear.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)
First taker gets it.
You think it will be highest, or won't be? Because I think it will be, so am happy to take the bet if you want the other side. But if I've just misunderstood you then sadly no bet.
We're on the same side of this one
Interesting suggestion - the only one I can see beating it is Orkney and Shetland - but the Scottish situation is sufficiently fluid that that's a bit of a coin toss.
You can have Orkney and Shetland if you like.
O and S has a small electorate. Are you evaluating the largest LD majority as % or absolute numbers?
I would suggest Yeovil may be the biggest in numbers but would still not fancy the bet.
Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details.
The OBR explicitly excluded them from the numbers. if you include them the 'rollercoaster' disappears, but the Lib Dems didn't want them in the numbers
Then the political mistake is to have kept to that profile. Just as Osborne made his "1930s" mistake in the autumn statement. Basic political errors of presentation.
Having closed the door on Labour's inadequate revenue sources, by using the lifetime pension allowance and a bank levy, the question to Labour will unremittingly be, "Where's the money coming from to pay for it all?"
The answer will be borrowing.
"So, the last five years was for nothing? You're just going to do the same thing that helped create the mess?"
An election losing strategy.
Economic ratings and leadership ratings will come home to roost.
Can I repeat yet again that Labour increased spending in real terms by 50% between 2000 and 2010. Its difficult to see where any of that left anyone any better off. Brown ran deficits to pay for it when he should have been paying down debt. This is why we are where we are now. Labour cannot credibly say they can repeat the process and spend more and borrow more in these circumstances.
Except everyone forgets how run-down the public sector was when Blair/Brown took office. They were elected, partly, to repair this and that's what they did.
I see electionforecast gives the Tories a 34% chance of taking Bath, and the Lib Dems holding by a 3% margin (35% LD and 32% Tory)
This is still my favoured black swan at 7/2. Like Harrogate and Winchester, a posh Spa town/city with an incumbent standing down that might easily fall.
A constitutency poll might be nice, although might also flatter the LDs if not everyone has realised Don Foster is standing down yet.
"The phantom incumbency"
Yep I thought Foster standing down could make it a deep Tory gain and have a cheeky fiver on this at 6s
electionforecast and electoralcalculus.co.uk disagree. They may agree on the Lib.Dems being about 67% likely to hold Bath. But look at their different probabilities of the Tories winning it.
electionforecast and electoralcalculus.co.uk disagree. They may agree on the Lib.Dems being about 67% likely to hold Bath. But look at their different probabilities of the Tories winning it.
I'd long assumed Bath was a goner this time. I played a small part in its capture.
I see electionforecast gives the Tories a 34% chance of taking Bath, and the Lib Dems holding by a 3% margin (35% LD and 32% Tory)
This is still my favoured black swan at 7/2. Like Harrogate and Winchester, a posh Spa town/city with an incumbent standing down that might easily fall.
A constitutency poll might be nice, although might also flatter the LDs if not everyone has realised Don Foster is standing down yet.
"The phantom incumbency"
Yep I thought Foster standing down could make it a deep Tory gain and have a cheeky fiver on this at 6s
electionforecast and electoralcalculus.co.uk disagree. They may agree on the Lib.Dems being about 67% likely to hold Bath. But look at their different probabilities of the Tories winning it.
I assume you'll be filling your boots on Labour at 150-1 with William Hills then ?
Labour are clearly betting on voters being completely stupid and believing what the Ed's say.
Would you not think that a large % of people would find it appealing if someone says you do not have to live within your income if you let me run your life? For many voters that has strong appeal. Before the Greek crisis really started they voted in a left wing govt that promised no cuts etc etc. When that Govt was forced to implement cuts and promise structural changes, the voters then voted in Syriza who promised no cuts, higher pay etc etc and we can see where that is going....
On the effect of the cuts, I was at a Bus Passenger Advisory Panel meeting in Essex recently. Until relatively recently, apparently, the County had a database of planned road closures which it could, and did, communicate to bus operators. That central advice has now been scrapped, as a cost saving measure, and the bus operators present were saying, in response to passenger rep complaints that “they just didn’t know” when service disruption might occur. There were other similar issues, none big in themselves, but enough to leave the passenger reps somewhat dismayed.
How do Labour explain a million people in the public sector losing their jobs and the vast majority of the population not noticing, how much was that costing the country?
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
Betting post: Dan Jarvis (next Labour leader) was on Betfair for 23/1 this morning. Only small sums being offered, so I took what I could.
He had very positive write-up in Newstatesman recently. Ex-army - serious service in Afghanistan, safe seat in Barnsley (where he won the nomination through hard door-step work and much to many people's surprise as not local or a former miner etc etc). Brought up kids on his own when wife died. If Labour lose and there is a huge searching of hearts about a fresh energetic leader who can connect and has had a life outside of the bubble, then he might appear through the muddle.
So, my next Lab leader bets are on Alistair Darling (cash now lost), Liz Kendall and Dan Jarvis (both outsiders who have shown no interest in running as yet). Long shot stuff.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?
Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way
If you look at probable votes, UKIP >>> Lib Dems If you look at probable seats, SNP >>> Lib Dems
I can't see an argument as to why the Lib Dems should dine at the same table as Labour and the Tories.
In fact the only one i can think of is that there is a subconscious institutional bias (I've noted it on the radio recently) towards the status quo from the BBC in particular - it is always Conservative, Labour and then Lib Dem viewpoint considered in that order.
Tim Montgomerie “We need more than this dull, simplistic budget”.
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
I thought this was another excellent budget from Osborne. Just a couple months from a general election, the temptation for a government is always to throw plenty of gimmicks that win over key constituencies at the expense of the nation overall. He's done a great job in challenging times.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
About a third (I think) of the terrible IEP trains are going to be dual-mode: i.e. they operate on electric power or diesel for when they're away from the knitting, so electrification might not be needed past Bristol.
But note the 'Great Western route' might just mean the London-Bristol-South Wales route, not the spur off past Exeter into Cornwall.
I'd said on here they might actually announce something concrete on the Dawlish problem at the budget - I was wrong.
The thing I found most interesting about the Network Rail options paper on Dawlish was that they made clear that the line has more problems than just Dawlish. It's vulnerable all the way up the Exe estuary, and it has been flooded in Somerset and north of Exeter too in recent years.
So the work on the Waterloo line to Salisbury will be helpful as it provides a less vulnerable route out of Devon.
The Dartmoor route interests me. It's very hard to make a case purely on the basis of a diversionary route, but clearly it opens up the prospect of supporting greater development in Okehampton, Crediton and especially Tavistock. Together with the weekending crowd, there probably is value in reinstatement. Presumably Tavistock to Exeter journey times would be substantially less direct than via Plymouth?
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?
Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way
If you look at probable votes, UKIP >>> Lib Dems If you look at probable seats, SNP >>> Lib Dems
I can't see an argument as to why the Lib Dems should dine at the same table as Labour and the Tories.
In fact the only one i can think of is that there is a subconscious institutional bias (I've noted it on the radio recently) towards the status quo from the BBC in particular - it is always Conservative, Labour and then Lib Dem viewpoint considered in that order.
Their heads will explode come May 7th.
I think the lib dems can fairly say they should have the chance to defend their record in govt
If it were about democracy and common sense the uk wide debates would be con, lab, lib dem & Ukip. The national parties in Wales Scotland and NI would get regional debates and maybe join the greens and the rest of the ofcom minors in a challengers debate if they're lucky
He had very positive write-up in Newstatesman recently. Ex-army - serious service in Afghanistan, safe seat in Barnsley (where he won the nomination through hard door-step work and much to many people's surprise as not local or a former miner etc etc). Brought up kids on his own when wife died. If Labour lose and there is a huge searching of hearts about a fresh energetic leader who can connect and has had a life outside of the bubble, then he might appear through the muddle.
Having a leader who can turn up at the Cenotaph sporting his hard won campaign medals would go a long way to helping Labour reach the voters other leaders wouldn't.
b) The Tories are trying to deny there have been massive spending cuts this parliament despite the gutting of funding to real things that people use, and
2015 Total Public Spending = £731bn 2010 Total Public Spending = £673bn
Positively hacking it away. The rate of increase has been reduced, no real cuts have been made.
It's the gift that keeps on giving on the doorstep. Never mind the massive cuts to front line services that you have seen with your own two eyes. Never mind the obr yesterday saying the squeeze in the next parliament will be far bigger than the cuts seen so far. Never mind that you're struggling to make ends meet and your school can't afford to hire teachers and police patrols have been cut as your chief constable has had his budget decimated or that your council has more than half it's funding taken away your library and sure start centre both closed and your hospital has declared a capacity cricis due to lack of money.
Because statistically none of these things happened! Yes, that'll work to win voters to the conservatives, call people liars and idiots....
Labour are the ones taking people for idiots.
As to NHS and "lack of money" YOUR party was going to cut their budget and the tories ring fenced it, remember that?
The rest of your propaganda spiel is just as laughable.
what will Labour do differently? (other than hose money up the wall).
An unfortunate reality is that one day we will have to live within our means - not something that comes easily to Labour so I fear your supporters are going to get the shock of their lives if we do get a Labour government - either that or we get the IMF back in.
I may be being thick, or have missed something, but where does the new Personal Savings Allowance leave cash ISAs?
Is the change not more about HMRC paperwork ? - if you are PAYE you now don't need to be doing a tax return to pay the extra tax of £5.82 of savings interest from your current account.
The savings change is the best part of the budget, costs the treasury tuppence, ha'penny and makes cash ISAs pointless.
It costs about £1bn per year, which is more than the Treasury brings in by the change to the Pension rules on lifetime allowances.
@Tabman - Just to add to the chorus of "welcome back" @Pulpstar - Just to confirm I'm No for the bet - was a theoretical 'the only one which could possibly beat is...'
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
The press front pages are pretty supportive of the budget, while even the left wing element are having difficulty drumming up a truly negative theme.
Are you expecting a big, sustained Budget bounce in the polls?
I don't have a definite view myself. We should see whatever sort of bounce there is in YouGov tonight, and then potentially a bit more in Friday's Populus. By the middle of next week we should see if there's been a lasting effect. My guess is a short-term moderate bounce which subsides back to the even split, but who knows? Anecdotally, the number of constituents who've written to me about any aspect of it is one, a sole trader (he asked if we'd promise to keep 20% corporation tax - I said no, I couldn't promise that throughout the Parliament, and he said OK, that's honest, I'll vote for you, but please don't make it 25%).
Whilst musing on absent members of the Ancient and Most Odd Order of the PB Bar Chart Fraternity do we know whether @bookvalue still haunts our proceedings as a lurker or has he departed for a normal life among the masses ?
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
Listened to whole of budget with my finance remit but from political pov I'm wondering if it lost the tories the election.
Strange reaction I know but just think it was a bit anti-climax. Osborne shunned big giveaway in favour of tackling the national debt. But do Brits want another 5 yrs austerity? Last time we got to a great economic sitn from tories, 1997, we gave em the boot. Could same occur again?
May be wrong. Usually am about the tories. It may be genius e.g. if they're going after labours out of control spending. It could be very clever for media memes and all that.
Just feel a bit deflated by it. Don't ordinary pple want a bit back?
Yes - but we can't afford it and a giveaway budget would have been seen as hypocritical. At least that is how I would have spun it on the doorstep.
Cash ISAs are still useful as you can transfer between cash and share ISAs freely without losing ISA status (the rules have recently changed on this) allowing better portfolio management.
Investment managers - the policy is to ensure annual management fees are subject to income tax, whilst carry and co-invest retain their original tax characteristics. This mainly impacts on the private equity industry (not hedge funds). The legislation has been redrafted since December as it did not meet those policy objectives initially.
Finance Bill due to be published on 24 March, debated 25 March, Royal Assent 26 March. Almost all remaining commons debates are on the Budget or Finance Bill.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?
Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way
Given UKIP are now classified as a major party, they surely have grounds to be in whatever 'debate' the big three are in.
Difficult to see how the beeb can justify a three way QT style thing given ofcom
UKIP's lawyers could scupper the debates....
I think UKIP should just go along with what ever happens. I don't particularly like the idea of Farage being up against a QT audience without being able to get a few shots at the other leaders. Probably best to let the BBC do what it wants and maybe score a few points from it looking anti-UKIP.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
I find that hard to believe - why wouldn't Clegg turn up for that ?
Farage should say to the greens SNP and DUP that he will swerve the challengers debate if they sit out of the seven way
Given UKIP are now classified as a major party, they surely have grounds to be in whatever 'debate' the big three are in.
Difficult to see how the beeb can justify a three way QT style thing given ofcom
UKIP's lawyers could scupper the debates....
That show wouldn't be a debate between the leaders but a Q&A w an audience... Impossible to see how it can include Clegg and not Farage unless he is getting a half hour show of his own that the others don't
Best way for Ukip to play it is to not accept the invitation to the challengers debate as part if a deal where the other challengers don't attend the 7 way
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
Comments
Public services face five-year 'rollercoaster', OBR chairman says
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/mar/18/public-services-face-five-year-rollercoaster-obr-chairman-says
Such spending plans will cause immense difficulties for public sector organisations (or for any organsation for that matter)
When interviewed on Sky Osborne seemed to row back on such observations suggesting it would be 'evened out'. So exactly what are the Tories spending plans going to be and where are they going to cut (Osborne was not forthcoming about that either this morning)?
Strange reaction I know but just think it was a bit anti-climax. Osborne shunned big giveaway in favour of tackling the national debt. But do Brits want another 5 yrs austerity? Last time we got to a great economic sitn from tories, 1997, we gave em the boot. Could same occur again?
May be wrong. Usually am about the tories. It may be genius e.g. if they're going after labours out of control spending. It could be very clever for media memes and all that.
Just feel a bit deflated by it. Don't ordinary pple want a bit back?
I agree that it lacks a vision. On top of Montgomerie’s view I would add that this may be as bad a budget as his omnishambles budget of 2012. Osborne has his plans exposed by the OBR as a roller coaster because his reductions in spending and the “£5billion” clawed back from tax evasion have little back up details. We now enter a period of a few days when either Osborne comes forward with the detail or his budget provides ammunition for his opponents.
whilst I (on what would be classed as a very good salary) have less money in my pocket I haven't noticed a reduction in services (and please bear in mind I do have children all with special needs - which were not well served by the State even at the height of Labours spendfest)
My team live in a variety of areas and earn a variety of salaries and no none sees a huge difference in the services they use. The lowest paid have obviously seen an improvement in how much tax this government has taken off them - unlike the last Labour government thanks to that master of the universe Gordon Brown.
Other than spend more money via the same tax 5 or 6 times with no guarantee of improved outcomes) what do you think Labour are offering us?
They are clowns who have learnt nothing from their last period in office and they need longer to "learn lessons" ( i think that is the preferred Labour term for doing nothing after getting things really wrong).
It'll be interesting to see how this plays out.
The Labour hearlands faithful are not going to be tempted by UKIPs appeals (Farage has foolishly said he would prop up the tories, purely to garner tory votes) - certainly not in the marginals where a split vote might lose them seats. And for all of what the polls say now, come election day will Labour's Scottish vote collapse as suggested? It deserves to - but will it after 4 weeks of electioneering?
The seats up for real grabs may well turn out to be the LibDems ones.
But in the end if people do not vote tory then its inevitable that we will get a Miliband/Balls government. This is why Labour have to misrepresent the Tories and pray on their bended knees every night to Saint Nigel.
Christian Adams (@Adamstoon1)
18/03/2015 18:27
The @Telegraph #Budget2015 #Budget cartoon pic.twitter.com/NkTORVAzHR
p.s. Cons May 2015 = Bibi Netanyahu all over again?
You may have looked at this - I haven't but philosophically it strikes me as a good idea:
from PwC: legislation will be included in the Finance Bill to make sure that all sums which arise to investment fund managers for their services are charged to income tax
If they are going after tax treatment of carried interest that could potentially have a huge impact on a bunch of things. (Doesn't affect me one way or the other)
This is why we are where we are now. Labour cannot credibly say they can repeat the process and spend more and borrow more in these circumstances.
Small but perfectly formed, and a real star performer.
I suggest, incidentally that part of Wales problem is the result of the 30’s. A lot of the brightest and best, and often the good average, left, seeing little or no hope, especially in the coalfields. Rather like Ireland, which has only prospered, I suggest, because of a tax regime which encouraged high earning companies to come, and then didn’t manage it properly.
In these days of iplayer, internet and social media it's very easy for the whole thing to pass by whilst barely registering with many people. These days the impact of politics is very much about mood and in that context, both main parties struggle to inspire.
"Balls 'won't reverse any of Budget'"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-31956459
Interesting approach - re-run of Ed Osborne and George Balls.
"This would be followed by the debate Downing St announced Cameron had agreed to earlier in the week: a seven person debate on April 2nd featuring Cameron and Miliband, but also the leaders of UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the DUP. It does not seem that the Lib Dems have agreed to appear."
http://labourlist.org/2015/03/new-debates-schedule-leaders-face-first-grilling-next-week-but-no-miliband-v-cameron/
I would suggest Yeovil may be the biggest in numbers but would still not fancy the bet.
"Ed Balls, what is he good for , absolutely nothing .... say it again"
You may also recall my sometime sparring partner and collaborator Graham - sadly he is no longer with us (and at a very young age).
He had very positive write-up in Newstatesman recently. Ex-army - serious service in Afghanistan, safe seat in Barnsley (where he won the nomination through hard door-step work and much to many people's surprise as not local or a former miner etc etc). Brought up kids on his own when wife died. If Labour lose and there is a huge searching of hearts about a fresh energetic leader who can connect and has had a life outside of the bubble, then he might appear through the muddle.
So, my next Lab leader bets are on Alistair Darling (cash now lost), Liz Kendall and Dan Jarvis (both outsiders who have shown no interest in running as yet). Long shot stuff.
Edited extra bit: and my condolences on your loss.
Mirror, Guardian, and the i don't.
What a turn up
If you look at probable seats, SNP >>> Lib Dems
I can't see an argument as to why the Lib Dems should dine at the same table as Labour and the Tories.
In fact the only one i can think of is that there is a subconscious institutional bias (I've noted it on the radio recently) towards the status quo from the BBC in particular - it is always Conservative, Labour and then Lib Dem viewpoint considered in that order.
Their heads will explode come May 7th.
Not a prayer the SNP will swerve the 8? way
The challengers debate will be the best entertainment I reckon.
If it were about democracy and common sense the uk wide debates would be con, lab, lib dem & Ukip. The national parties in Wales Scotland and NI would get regional debates and maybe join the greens and the rest of the ofcom minors in a challengers debate if they're lucky
As to NHS and "lack of money" YOUR party was going to cut their budget and the tories ring fenced it, remember that?
The rest of your propaganda spiel is just as laughable.
what will Labour do differently? (other than hose money up the wall).
An unfortunate reality is that one day we will have to live within our means - not something that comes easily to Labour so I fear your supporters are going to get the shock of their lives if we do get a Labour government - either that or we get the IMF back in.
JohnO and I are old enough to remember when the PBLib Dems were more than just Mark Senior
http://www.icmunlimited.com/data/media/pdf/2015_guardian_march15.pdf
Adjusting for the squeeze question, the Conservatives lead Labour 38/36 in England, and in England and Wales.
However I must reprimand you severely as sightings of pandas in Scotland are more common than an appearance from one of my favourite yellow perilists.
Yes, the departmental spending plans *are* like a roller coaster, and no they do not make sense.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CAdCMj_WEAAa0uE.png
@Pulpstar - Just to confirm I'm No for the bet - was a theoretical 'the only one which could possibly beat is...'
Those were the days ....
I don't have a definite view myself. We should see whatever sort of bounce there is in YouGov tonight, and then potentially a bit more in Friday's Populus. By the middle of next week we should see if there's been a lasting effect. My guess is a short-term moderate bounce which subsides back to the even split, but who knows? Anecdotally, the number of constituents who've written to me about any aspect of it is one, a sole trader (he asked if we'd promise to keep 20% corporation tax - I said no, I couldn't promise that throughout the Parliament, and he said OK, that's honest, I'll vote for you, but please don't make it 25%).
BTW .... in the picture of you on the last thread were you in the custody of Inspector Clouseau ?
Cash ISAs are still useful as you can transfer between cash and share ISAs freely without losing ISA status (the rules have recently changed on this) allowing better portfolio management.
Investment managers - the policy is to ensure annual management fees are subject to income tax, whilst carry and co-invest retain their original tax characteristics. This mainly impacts on the private equity industry (not hedge funds). The legislation has been redrafted since December as it did not meet those policy objectives initially.
Finance Bill due to be published on 24 March, debated 25 March, Royal Assent 26 March. Almost all remaining commons debates are on the Budget or Finance Bill.
Best way for Ukip to play it is to not accept the invitation to the challengers debate as part if a deal where the other challengers don't attend the 7 way