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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The GE2015 prospects for Clegg, Salmond, and Farage are all dependent on tactical voting either for or against
One of those attending the PB party on Tuesday, a long standing lurker who has never posted, told me that one of his favourite bets at the moment was the then 50/1 he’d got that Farage, Salmond and Clegg would all fail to be elected at the election.
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Like all three in their seats.
I'd be delighted if Salmond lost
What a thing to wake up to!
If Clegg does "stay alive", a by-election surely follows soon enough. Wonders what's the point.
3150 minutes
To me, it has always smacked of desperation. It's always possible to accuse your opposite numbers of having secret plans, and near impossible for them to prove you wrong, so I''d expect undecided voters to dismiss the accusation as 'just what you'd expect them to say', unless they're already leaning your way.
a) The Tories told us they wouldn't raise VAT. And then did
b) The Tories are trying to deny there have been massive spending cuts this parliament despite the gutting of funding to real things that people use, and
b) The Tories are planning massive spending cuts after the election. They've dulled the impact slightly since the autumn statement by selling our things and promising not to have quite as big a surplus, but as noone believes these forecasts anyway (as Osborne has consistently missed them by a country mile) we're back to intent.
Believe me, on the doorstep, people have felt the cuts that the Tories try and claim haven't happened this parliament. They're worried what is to come. So yes, it works.
"1.167 The Secretary of State for Transport will shortly set out details of the new franchise for
the Great Western Route, which will introduce the new £3 billion Intercity Express
trains, more frequent services and faster journey times. "
It sounds to me like electrification will either be extended into Devon and Cornwall, so the Hitachi Super Express trains (or similar) can operate there (expensive) or they'll purchase a new fleet of Class 220/221 Voyagers. Both would require some signalling/infrastructure tweaks.
Interestingly, there are still ongoing discussions going on about £7bn of infrastructure upgrades too from what I read. I imagine that includes the back-up route from Exeter-Plymouth.
"1.168 Transport: The government has asked the South West Peninsula Task Force
on rail to consider improvements to the Exeter to Salisbury line as part of its work.
The government also encourages the relevant local authorities and Local Enterprise
Partnership to develop a business case for investment in the North Devon Link road,
to form the basis of a future application to the Local Growth Fund."
Probably a bit more duelling of track, and more frequent services. Could help with marginal seats in North Devon, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Mid Dorset, Taunton etc. all of which aren't far away.
2010 Total Public Spending = £673bn
Positively hacking it away. The rate of increase has been reduced, no real cuts have been made.
I suspect the Tories will be in distant second place, but it would be hilarious to see Salmonds face as all Scotland goes SNP, but his own seat turns blue...
But note the 'Great Western route' might just mean the London-Bristol-South Wales route, not the spur off past Exeter into Cornwall.
I'd said on here they might actually announce something concrete on the Dawlish problem at the budget - I was wrong.
Personally I think Salmond and Clegg will make it and Farage will fail.
Did we get a Survation poll yesterday or was OGH just tweeting stuff from the last one?
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/osborne-gets-the-post-budget-front-pages-he-hoped-for/
He said he wasn't sure. He thought Labour had a better front bench team but the Tories had a better leader. He didn't rate Labour's leader at all. He voted Lib Dem last time but wouldn't again.
He's in advertising so unlikely to have a social conscience and is as far away from a media trot as it's possible to be. As we wound up the conversation he said his wife was probably going to vote Labour this time so in all likelihood he'd do the same............
This person earns well into a six figure salary and I know not everyone is as hooked on the minutiae of politics as we are on here. But I think if I was a politician and he's as typical as I suspect then you might as well just throw your tea leaves in the air
Because statistically none of these things happened! Yes, that'll work to win voters to the conservatives, call people liars and idiots....
Ross Hawkins retweeted
Tim Gatt@TimGatt·14 mins14 minutes ago
MT @rosschawkins I almost spilt my coffee when I saw front page of Sun Chancellor tells BBC // http://youtu.be/kmC6GaqKl9Y
IMHO the problem for the LD’s is that they used to be tjhought of as being in the "interests of all” camp but keeping company with the Tories is ruining that perception!
Can anyone conceive that GO wouldn't get positive headlines from the Telegraph, Mail and Sun 49 days before a General Election?
You forgot how the mirror slavishly spins the Labour line but that doesn't count of course.
"Sounds like he is a sandwich short of a picnic and surprising he has a job at all. Name one even remotely competent person on their front bench."
I can't and that was my point. He's far from a sandwich short of a picnic but with such odd notions picked up from God knows where how do politicians possibly get through
I think both the Lib Dems and Tories must have come to some arrangement not to make too many spending commitments in the budget, so they can credibly beef up their manifestos with their preferred spending pledges.
Undoubtedly, much of the spending Labour were planning hasn't happened, but such cuts don't mean much to the general public since the future spending plans were just politicians' promises, in which they place little credence. If the jam tomorrow never materialises, that's only what was cynically expected.
What counts is actual spending on the ground, impacting the general public, and there I've noticed no deterioration despite all the panic-mongering. The NHS did their normal excellent job treating my father's cancer and my nephew's meningitis, my benefits have always been paid on time, and none of the other services I get from the government have been noticeably affected either.
You're free to tell me how blind I've been, of course, free to list a hundred cuts affecting me I've completely missed, but I'm not convinced effectively telling voters they're naive idiots if they don't agree with the Labour line is a winning strategy. It may work on some people, but others would rather believe their own eyes than any politician, no matter how often their eyes have deceived them in the past.
All 3 0.3592
Clegg, Salmond 0.1715
Salmond, Farage 0.1870
Salmond 0.0892
Clegg, Farage 0.0860
Clegg 0.0410
Farage 0.0447
None 0.0214
How does creating 2 million jobs remotely fit with your narrative? The fortunate already have jobs. The very fortunate don't need them.
How does the top 1% paying 27% of all tax remotely fit your narrative?
How does granting rights of gay marriage to bring about equality in our society fit your narrative?
How does meeting our pledge to international aid targets fit your narrative? The fortunate are those who shout loudest against this policy.
How does ring-fencing the funding for the NHS fit your narrative? The fortunate already had BUPA.
Today's Conservative Party - working together with the LibDems - have five years of Government they should be rightly proud of. Proud that it has been one of the most redistributive in decades. Certainly far more than the last Labour Govt.
Different story when he is sober.
If I were betting on this, which I'm not, I'd probably go for all three or Farage + Salmond.
'Labour's plans steadier'
Posted at 07:46
I think people will see George Osborne's plans as "pretty scary", Ed Balls says.
He says the Labour plan is steadier and more balanced. His party will cut debt and get a budget surplus, but in a different way. Instead of just spending cuts, Labour will save money in some areas, but will also make tough decisions on taking some benefits away, put the top rate of income tax up and deal with insecure employment and zero hours contracts."
Roger has a point that startling percentages of the population are simply oblivious to politics but surely even they might notice the absurdity of these comments.
Nasty Tories cut public spending.
Nice Labour only save money.
Nasty Tories cut benefits.
Nice Labour make some "tough decisions" on benefits.
This is what our politics have come to and it is frankly depressing.
Roger - had to break it to you dahling.
Someone earning well into six figures is in no way typical
"Roger, there are some people who vote according to whether the country is to be governed in the interets of all, or of the fortunate. The present Conservative party comes across as very definitely governing in the interests of the latter. "
That would be my reading of it too. But the point of my story is that even someone as attuned to modern culture as he has to be doesn't even seem to have made that simple extrapolation.
It seems to me that most pepople follow politics with less than one ear and getting your message accross to them is near impossible
They should and will use it mercilessly to scare waverers to turn up and vote this Tory government out.
George focussing the entire budget on defence from Labour indicates the Labour campaign is working so far.
The reforms to the education system give kids from poor backgrounds the chance to break through and do something positive with their lives. The collapse of social mobility under the last government should be something they hang their heads in shame about.
The welfare reforms are about encouraging people to re-enter the workforce, which has massive psychological benefits. Someone (@notme?) described people he knew who had benefited from starting work. They may have been slower that ideal, but it could be transformational for the country.
Labour is content to leave people on (marginally more generous) handouts and are not too bothered about their education. That's absolutely NOT governing in the "interests of all"
Yup, right where they they want it...
A typical Labour voter in your own words.
Roger leave the Dark side behind come over to the Right you know you need to.
This is still my favoured black swan at 7/2. Like Harrogate and Winchester, a posh Spa town/city with an incumbent standing down that might easily fall.
A constitutency poll might be nice, although might also flatter the LDs if not everyone has realised Don Foster is standing down yet.
The answer will be borrowing.
"So, the last five years was for nothing? You're just going to do the same thing that helped create the mess?"
An election losing strategy.
Economic ratings and leadership ratings will come home to roost.
Fear of c*cking it up all over again on the one hand vs more nastiness on the other.
The actual declared plans of the main parties grow ever closer. Yesterday's budget at least halved the gap between what the Tories said in the Autumn statement just a few months ago and what can be inferred from Ed Balls' occasional mumbling. Some are now suggesting that it is as low as £7bn a year which is less than 1% of public spending.
The hyperbole on both sides is designed to hide the fact that the British public are not really getting a choice of policies at all. They are simply getting a choice of leadership.
Yep I thought Foster standing down could make it a deep Tory gain and have a cheeky fiver on this at 6s
Our politics in a nutshell ...
The 45p rate or the 50p rate of taxation?
The 45p rate shows the Tories value people who get on. The 50p rate shows Labour are determined that we're all in it together. Tories claim that the lower rate actually brings in more tax, Labour are financing their plans on the extra money it brings in.
Neither can show any scientific proof, but both want their version to be true, Therefore it is true.
Politics of the schoolyard.
Nasty, fair, better, scary, reckless (TPD copyright)
I'll go Evens Westmorland and Lonsdale recording the biggest Lib Dem majority against any other specified constituency ! (% terms)
First taker gets it.
There are many people who would avoid work if they could. Managing ones life without doing so has been been the aim of many across all classes. Bertie Wooster was a prime example! However for many others the opportunities are, or were, just not there.
PoliticsHome@politicshome·1 min1 minute ago
First TV leaders' debate to take place next week, broadcasters say http://polho.me/1GsNTPK
A more or less non-partisan question. Nottingham is developing a tram network, largely with government funding, and clearly fancy building lots more, since all public transport networks gain exponentially from more links. They are largely dependent on government funding for this. Should they feel encouraged by Osborne talking about support for strategic transport planning and developing cities? Or is this actually about something else?
At present,the debate has turned out so far to be on how deep the Tory cuts will be-a scary prospects for a lot of people.That's why George focused almost his entire budget on trying to shoot Labour's fox and didn't quite succeed.
The closest was all three at 6/4, the 9/2 about Clegg and Farage was, if I remember correctly, absolutely horrendous value, about 11-12% wrong
And, on the economy generally, the Conservatives have a clear lead.
So the work on the Waterloo line to Salisbury will be helpful as it provides a less vulnerable route out of Devon.
Obviously neither party will give that undertaking, so why is any politician allowed to change the subject? I'm no Paxman but a decent interviewer could make any of them look like Natalie Bennett on a bad day if they tried.
Best prices are 2/5 2/5 and 1/7 which is 5/4 so a decent bet
Anyone got any debates pending - could be an interesting definition poser.
Labour accept Tory budget.
That man is a disgrace to our parliament .. but he is (in true socialist fashion) coining it in nicely.
Must have learnt something from Tony.
His defence is to call it 'empty'. What is empty of course are the coffers, left by him.
But the real issue is spending, to what extent will Balls commit to restraining spending. If he does not then he cannot commit to reducing the deficit, not without further raising taxes.
Increasing technology will continue to eliminate jobs - often those in the middle - whilst there will be jobs for the innovators and creators and the sweepers-up/
The UK has rewarded itself far too generously for years and now as it has priced itself out of many markets and certainly in the making many things (people will always buy the cheapest at the same quality -hence the rise of Aldi and Lidl), well-paid jobs for all in the UK will be much harder to find.
The problem is compounded by the UK's low availability of the skill sets that are required to be able to compete in the global marketplace. The Welsh statistics that about 50% of its adult population have numeracy and literacy skills no greater than those of a 9- 11 year old reveals the massive extent of the problem. Why should Italy make the latest P&O liner - and not the UK - because we have lost both manufacturing facility and required skill sets.
The only answer is to revolutionise our education system and remove it from the dead hands of the LAs who often are very satisfied if the pupils come out as average in a nation which have been rapidly slipping down the global education league.
This is something that both the LDs and Labour will not countenance - are we going condemn many our children to a lifestyle of mediocrity for the sake of political ideology?
Are you sure - I've worked the tissue out to
All 3 0.3592
Clegg, Salmond 0.1715
Salmond, Farage 0.1870
Salmond 0.0892
Clegg, Farage 0.0860
Clegg 0.0410
Farage 0.0447
None 0.0214
That's using best bookie prices and removing the over-round, or do bookies never put over-round on a very short priced favourite
If voters break down roughly like this;
1. 70% vote the same way they always do
2. 10% vote according to what will benefit them most at that moment
3. 10% vote on the merit of the various prospectuses
4. 10% vote for random reasons such as candidates colour of logo wife/husbands preference
then devising a campaign to win you the election without wasting your resourses shouldn't be too difficult. Ignore 1 and 4 because they're out of reach so concentrate on 2 and 3.
'2' needs research. Find out what bribes will be the most effective and make sure they're believable. Ideally filter it down to one or two HUGE bribes (think Osborne). Then giant posters 'FREE CHILDCARE' (or whatever it is).......possibly dancing girls with pom poms for the PPB's. Think DFS sale.....
'3' is more difficult than '2'. These are the thinkers. Not easily fooled. You need smart and articulate presenters to deliver the message. Ideally able to pose as members of your party. Might require appointing one or two actors to the Lords. Keep te team small but all media interviews to be undertaken by this crack team. Keep the riffraff as far away from a studio as possible.....
to be cont....
So whichever way you want to look at it the nation needs to cut spending or raise taxes or both since growth alone cannot pay for such a massive increase.
Growth did not pay for it in the first place and on top of that the banking collapse presided over by Brown wiped out a good chunck of the economy's ability to pay as well.
So faced with that, why not try to answer your own question - how deep should cuts be and/or how high should tax rises be if you do not agree with the current budget plans?
I would have thought that it would be quite hard to win people to tactical voting across the traditional political divides when it could make a difference to the incumbent in Number 10. Also, in the Holyrood elections it is possible for people to vote tactically Unionist with their constituency vote, and for their true political preference in the list vote.