politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last budget of the 2010-2015 parliament
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He should approve. The change in the personal allowance is a flat rate bonus and so disproportionately benefits low earners. The difference between inflation and earning is a percentage figure and in reality falls heaviest on the "stretched middle" (since the well off did well out of asset inflation from QE*).Indigo said:
I suspect that @bigjohnowls is simply comparing the inflation rate over the past six years with the rate of increase in average earnings, which until recently was comfortably below inflation - hence a squeeze on living standards.OblitusSumMe said:
Clearly brand new and invented by GO, you are sounding desperate.Indigo said:
Bollardsbigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measuresReal household disposable income (RHDI) per capita is the most up to date and comprehensive measure of living standards, used by the OECD, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and its use welcomed by the UK Statistics Authority, as it takes into account employment levels, the effects of tax and benefits, as well as inflation.
This ignores the effect of the increases in the personal allowance that Osborne has paid for by borrowing money. You might say that the magic money tree has been used to ensure that there hasn't been a decline in living standards.
* remembering that QE was started by G Brown Esq.The distributional analysis for all the Coalition budget changes show that it is the second richest decile who have benefited most from the Chancellor of the Coalition government. The only decile worse off than the poorest decile is the richest decile - but given how well they've done out of asset inflation I'm sure the richest decile can cope.0 -
Alan: JEO is muddling up bankers and "financial advisers"...Alanbrooke said:
I assume the rest of your friends are retired or under seven.JEO said:
Many of my friends are bankers and they work longer hours than anyone I know.Alanbrooke said:
Bankers think George is great, no surprise, they don't actually work for a living.Charles said:@alanbrooke
I sat next to someone at supper last night who is not a fan of politicians as a whole.
But he said George had popped over for lunch last week and was really very impressive. Absolutely on top of his brief and everyone else's as well: and really answered the questions, thoughtfully and in detail. He was very very impressed.
...He then contrasted him explicitly with a number of other (former) Cabinet rank politicians who we both knew very well... decidedly in George's favour.
/trollalanbrooke
But when Richard Nabavi says Osborne is a failure, then you know the Tories are struggling0 -
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings0 -
Is there any evidence for it, though?SouthamObserver said:
I am certainly no EdM fan, but thought he did very well today. The VAT thing is very clever.bigjohnowls said:Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 16m16 minutes ago Hounslow, London
COMMENT EM keeps it short and delivers his best Budget reply, better speech than GO - for what that's worth.
Wow if Boulton who usually comes over as a massive Tory is saying that shows how some people on here really need to get real.
Or don't you need evidence these days to denounce someone?0 -
Abolishing class 2 NI for C2s who are self employed.chestnut said:
Tax cut aimed at 5 million people - lots of C2s.Grandiose said:Never thought I'd see the day
"class 2 NI" currently trending...
And further inspection shows that the tax allowance increase is indeed £200 extra this year, this April, over and above previously announced.
Have people noticed the billions worth of tax avoidance measures are not confined to ahem, alleged inheritance scams?
And if anywhere in the country needs an enterprise zone, its Blackpool. Well done.
The help to buy ISA (for first time buyers only) has limitations and only comes in this Autumn. And then it has to be saved up. It hardly seems likely to create a bubble.0 -
Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely. And in Germany, public opinion is increasingly pointing in the direction of allowing Greece to go.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.0 -
Ed Balls too scared to debate Danny Alexander...
@elashton: Danny Alexander tries to get Ed Balls to agree to a three-way TV debate with George Osborne. Balls refuses. http://t.co/sUqxPcaKlP0 -
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings0 -
Grexit would SURELY strengthen the Euro ?rcs1000 said:Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely. And in Germany, public opinion is increasingly pointing in the direction of allowing Greece to go.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.
Combine with potentially Ed being PM and sterling is a sell
? 0 -
The evidence is the last two times the Tories were returned to power after a GE in which they stated they were not going to raise VAT.Charles said:
Is there any evidence for it, though?SouthamObserver said:
I am certainly no EdM fan, but thought he did very well today. The VAT thing is very clever.bigjohnowls said:Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 16m16 minutes ago Hounslow, London
COMMENT EM keeps it short and delivers his best Budget reply, better speech than GO - for what that's worth.
Wow if Boulton who usually comes over as a massive Tory is saying that shows how some people on here really need to get real.
Or don't you need evidence these days to denounce someone?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8192095.stm
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/lamont-in-new-storm-over-vat-on-fuel-bills-1.765713
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Happy to admit: I was wrong. When are you sending me my humble pie?Hengists_Gift said:Mr Casino Royale if you are out there what have you to say for yourself?
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The economy was in good order, yes sleaze was overtaking the government and in any case people were sick to death of the Cons after so long but...MarkHopkins said:SouthamObserver said:
As I said earlier, it reminded me very much of the Ken Clarke 97 budget.antifrank said:The waters will close over this budget soon enough. For a supposedly highly political chancellor, George Osborne seems by and large to have gone for the moral high ground.
There aren't many votes there.
The 97 Tory Gov had already lost their economic competence due to the ERM fiasco, and they were very tired, and faced Tony Blair.
Not really much comparison to today.
...the comparison, which I think is valid, is that if the economy is in such good shape then not only what was all the fuss about but it also gives an opportunity to look at other factors, such as a nice, rather than nasty party running the country.0 -
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
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Anyone who thinks a Conservative-led government in the next parliament would increase VAT is welcome to bet with me at Evens on the matter, void if it's not a Conservative Chancellor.
I can't vouch for a Labour government, though. They'll be desperate, so might well be forced into it.0 -
Like the eurozone crisis I'm back after 2 weeks.
Did I miss anything?0 -
Danny Alexander would be better off looking for a job from 8/5/15Scott_P said:Ed Balls too scared to debate Danny Alexander...
@elashton: Danny Alexander tries to get Ed Balls to agree to a three-way TV debate with George Osborne. Balls refuses. http://t.co/sUqxPcaKlP0 -
No humble pie needed!Casino_Royale said:
Happy to admit: I was wrong. When are you sending me my humble pie?Hengists_Gift said:Mr Casino Royale if you are out there what have you to say for yourself?
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A hilariously facile analysis.Hengists_Gift said:
Where Cameron and Blair are most similar is their almost complete disregard for domestic policy other than Health and Education and a few symbolic hobby horses, their unwelcome politically driven meddling in our political system and their utterly derelict and often disastrous foreign policy.Flightpath said:
Where Cameron and the tories agreed with Blair was the reform of Education Welfare and Pensions... all of which Blair (with postman Johnson in the lead) backed away from. They have also privatised the Royal Mail which Blair ran away from. Nothing soft focus Left. It was Blair who tried to tack Right but was ultimately defeated.Indigo said:
But Cameron is a soft-focus rather amateurish Blair, at least in approach and manner, so Bolton must have really despised Blair as a person if that's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
My take is he broadly agreed with Tony Blair's approach, that soft centre left, which Cameron has tried to drag the Tories closer to. But he hates professional politicians and the spin machine...so Cameron's doesn't tick the boxes for that.Plato said:Mr Boulton doesn't seem to be a Tory in his Sunday Times column.
FrancisUrquhart said:
Erhhh you are proving your point really....Hunter and Campbell had a big falling out and have massive history, hence the over the top reactions. Between Boulton and Campbell it is personal, because of very close relationships. Plenty of people are Labour supporters and hate the way Campbell operates.bigjohnowls said:
You would have thought Alistair Campbell might know wouldn't you 3 mins in.TGOHF said:
Adam Boulton who is married to Anji Hunter - Tony Blair's director of Government Relations ?bigjohnowls said:Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 16m16 minutes ago Hounslow, London
COMMENT EM keeps it short and delivers his best Budget reply, better speech than GO - for what that's worth.
Wow if Boulton who usually comes over as a massive Tory is saying that shows how some people on here really need to get real.
Yes massive Tory..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gkHwU4DRA8
Another good example Charlie Whelan and Mandleson...Both Labour through and through, but friendly fire doesn't come close to it.
I personally think old fat head does an ok job on balance. He was certainly quite keen on Tony Blair and let that show, but he doesn't do a bad job these days.
But he has all that history and inside knowledge of what a nasty operation was run by some during Labour's time in governemnt. Hence, he dislike for Brown and his followers.0 -
On topic off topic
Ed Miliband could make British exporters INCREDIBLY competitive when you think about it
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Didn't a certain George Osborne increase VAT while being chancellor ?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyone who thinks a Conservative-led government in the next parliament would increase VAT is welcome to bet with me at Evens on the matter, void if it's not a Conservative Chancellor.
I can't vouch for a Labour government, though. They'll be desperate, so might well be forced into it.0 -
Interesting stuff, thanks. Of course capital controls are a bit problematic in the EU (one of 'four pillars' is free movement of capital), and even more so in the Eurozone. Would be very messy indeed, I suspect.rcs1000 said:Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely.
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Danny Alexander should be better off trying to debate the local SNP candidate.Scott_P said:Ed Balls too scared to debate Danny Alexander...
@elashton: Danny Alexander tries to get Ed Balls to agree to a three-way TV debate with George Osborne. Balls refuses. http://t.co/sUqxPcaKlP0 -
Watch my lipsbigjohnowls said:
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
"It is the preferred measure of the OECD"
Not sure how it can be any clearer, its an international measurement, used to compare all countries, just because it doesn't suit your narrative doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.0 -
Not surprised. I was puzzled when you originally wrote that as I could not believe that the Greek version of the socialist workers party would agree to the structural reform. But spot on for understanding what the IMF would do.rcs1000 said:Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.
That said I am struggling to understand why Grexit would be so terrible for our economy as Osborne portrayed it. Surely a quick Grexit and realignment with an outbreak of economic sense may bring round to their senses the socialists in France? A far more dangerous situation. Afterall we have a very large International Aid budget which could be diverted to Greece as food etc whilst they sort themselves out.0 -
Said Ed would have a good day today and he did.
As for Osborne - oh dear. Good riddance in May to the worst chancellor in my lifetime. He can enjoy Balls trashing his record in the emergency budget in the autumn from the Opposition benches.0 -
@TelePolitics: Budget 2015: Ed Miliband claims Tories have a 'secret plan' to cut the NHS http://t.co/624mHtNa3k0
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My overall impression of this budget is that it confirms my view that Chancellors have very little room to manoeuvre because of the enormity of the public debt and the drain the public sector puts on the public coffers. Unless politicians are willing to slaughter one or more of their sacred cows (EU, Climate Change, Aid, Welfare state, NHS) that situation is not going to change for decades to come....0
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Only one chancellor wants to change the measure because the official ONS one doesnt suit their narrative.Indigo said:
Watch my lipsbigjohnowls said:
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
"It is the preferred measure of the OECD"
Not sure how it can be any clearer, its an international measurement, used to compare all countries, just because it doesn't suit your narrative doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.
Fortunately the voters are best paced to work out if they are better off or not and they get to vote in 49 days0 -
The government increased VAT and also increased tax allowances. Transferring taxes from earnings to spending. No VAT on childrens clothes and food. Still VAT on fish and chips but not pasties though.Speedy said:
Didn't a certain George Osborne increase VAT while being chancellor ?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyone who thinks a Conservative-led government in the next parliament would increase VAT is welcome to bet with me at Evens on the matter, void if it's not a Conservative Chancellor.
I can't vouch for a Labour government, though. They'll be desperate, so might well be forced into it.0 -
Brown was a worse Chancellor than Osborne.BenM said:Said Ed would have a good day today and he did.
As for Osborne - oh dear. Good riddance in May to the worst chancellor in my lifetime. He can enjoy Balls trashing his record in the emergency budget in the autumn from the Opposition benches.0 -
Mr. Speedy, I got my first race tip of 2015 wrong. 1/3 of my pre-season tips was wronger than the Thirteenth Earl of Wrongcaster, but 2/3 are looking reasonable (although the German race being cancelled will harm Hamilton's prospects as he now needs 13/18 wins rather than 13/19).0
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You've gotta hand it to the Greeks, they know how to get a good dealrcs1000 said:
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door. 0 -
From a hilariously facile internet caricature that is praise indeed!Flightpath said:
A hilariously facile analysis.Hengists_Gift said:
Where Cameron and Blair are most similar is their almost complete disregard for domestic policy other than Health and Education and a few symbolic hobby horses, their unwelcome politically driven meddling in our political system and their utterly derelict and often disastrous foreign policy.Flightpath said:
Where Cameron and the tories agreed with Blair was the reform of Education Welfare and Pensions... all of which Blair (with postman Johnson in the lead) backed away from. They have also privatised the Royal Mail which Blair ran away from. Nothing soft focus Left. It was Blair who tried to tack Right but was ultimately defeated.Indigo said:
But Cameron is a soft-focus rather amateurish Blair, at least in approach and manner, so Bolton must have really despised Blair as a person if that's true.FrancisUrquhart said:
..Plato said:Mr Boulton doesn't seem to be a Tory in his Sunday Times column.
FrancisUrquhart said:
Erhhh you are proving your point really....Hunter and Campbell had a big falling out and have massive history, hence the over the top reactions. Between Boulton and Campbell it is personal, because of very close relationships. Plenty of people are Labour supporters and hate the way Campbell operates.bigjohnowls said:
You would have thought Alistair Campbell might know wouldn't you 3 mins in.TGOHF said:
Adam Boulton who is married to Anji Hunter - Tony Blair's director of Government Relations ?bigjohnowls said:Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 16m16 minutes ago Hounslow, London
COMMENT EM keeps it short and delivers his best Budget reply, better speech than GO - for what that's worth.
Wow if Boulton who usually comes over as a massive Tory is saying that shows how some people on here really need to get real.
Yes massive Tory..
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1gkHwU4DRA8
Another good example Charlie Whelan and Mandleson...Both Labour through and through, but friendly fire doesn't come close to it.
I personally think old fat head does an ok job on balance. He was certainly quite keen on Tony Blair and let that show, but he doesn't do a bad job these days.
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Black baby????TGOHF said:
Have they factored in the Telegraph story that the new royal baby could be born on election day ?peter_from_putney said:Sporting's GE Seats market remains suspended - clearly awaiting the betting market's overall response to today's budget.
Black swan ? 0 -
...and cut or froze child benefit and tax credits.Flightpath said:
The government increased VAT and also increased tax allowances. Transferring taxes from earnings to spending. No VAT on childrens clothes and food. Still VAT on fish and chips but not pasties though.Speedy said:
Didn't a certain George Osborne increase VAT while being chancellor ?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyone who thinks a Conservative-led government in the next parliament would increase VAT is welcome to bet with me at Evens on the matter, void if it's not a Conservative Chancellor.
I can't vouch for a Labour government, though. They'll be desperate, so might well be forced into it.
Let's not avoid Osborne's culpability by attempting to paint an incomplete picture. The bottom income decile has been spanked by the Tories.
Again.0 -
It was a very political budget; it was just more subtle than many other political ones. What Osborne was setting out was the narrative that the government has followed the right path but that we are a long way from the destination. In other words, Labour don't have a frigging clue and it's nowhere near safe to let them near the sweet tin again. Had he gone for big money giveaways, it would have completely undermined both messages.antifrank said:The waters will close over this budget soon enough. For a supposedly highly political chancellor, George Osborne seems by and large to have gone for the moral high ground.
There aren't many votes there.0 -
OblitusSumMe said:Richard_Nabavi said:
Your recollection is wrong, because Labour's proposal included a very much bigger raid on pension contributions.OblitusSumMe said:My recollection is that when Labour proposed this tax increase on pensions to fund a cut in tuition fees the reaction of many Tories on here was it would be a disaster, typical of Labour's assault on people saving for themselves, etc, etc.
Pensions are seen as a source of tax revenue by Chancellors from both Labour and Conservatives, perhaps because the tax paid is remote from people's day-to-day budgets, and this is a deplorable way for government to behave when it should be looking out for the long-term wealth of the nation. With the annuity freedom proposal one unfortunately suspects that Osborne is keen on it because the Treasury forecasts it will result in a higher tax take.
I'm glad that you at least are able to criticise it, even though others are ignoring it completely.
I am not sure those figures. My NHS pension is actuarily calculated as 23 times pension to calculate the pension pot. That works out as £43 478 annual pension.Richard_Nabavi said:
Your recollection is wrong, because Labour's proposal included a very much bigger raid on pension contributions.OblitusSumMe said:My recollection is that when Labour proposed this tax increase on pensions to fund a cut in tuition fees the reaction of many Tories on here was it would be a disaster, typical of Labour's assault on people saving for themselves, etc, etc.
FWIW I think the latest change is a mistake, for two reasons. Firstly we need to stop messing around with pensions - it's counter-productive to have something so long-term being fiddled with every year - and secondly because the limit is already extremely unfair to those on defined-contribution schemes, who will now be allowed (on current annuity rates) a maximum pension of only around £30K per year, compared with £50K per year in defined-benefit (i.e. largely public-sector nowadays) schemes. This is on a like-for-like comparison of inflation-linked pensions.
I have a SIPP that I took out when the pension pot was bigger, so I need to take that into account too.
I may need to freeze my pension by opting out of Superannuation in some years time, or retire early.
From the political point of view this change probably mostly affects public sector employees at the top end of their scales. Entrepeneurs can keep their money in a company and pay it out as dividends.0 -
I think this is one critisicm by Ed that is unfair
Deploying a familiar refrain, Mr Miliband said the Tory party was the “political wing of the tax avoidance industry”
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That would be very newsworthy.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Black baby????TGOHF said:
Have they factored in the Telegraph story that the new royal baby could be born on election day ?peter_from_putney said:Sporting's GE Seats market remains suspended - clearly awaiting the betting market's overall response to today's budget.
Black swan ?0 -
Highly predictable attack, and silly to go on it. Osborne has predicted this, as has everyone else for that matter.Scott_P said:@TelePolitics: Budget 2015: Ed Miliband claims Tories have a 'secret plan' to cut the NHS http://t.co/624mHtNa3k
It'll be easily sidestepped. Osborne has created a lot of headroom in his last budget for additional spending pledges. The NHS will get a tasty chunk.
He might also do something on defence as well.0 -
I guess when the IMF comes calling in 2-3 years time after the 2 Eds go on a spending spree we cant afford, and the government is forced to cut 30% of everything in one year, we wont see you for dust.bigjohnowls said:
Only one chancellor wants to change the measure because the official ONS one doesnt suit their narrative.Indigo said:
Watch my lipsbigjohnowls said:
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
"It is the preferred measure of the OECD"
Not sure how it can be any clearer, its an international measurement, used to compare all countries, just because it doesn't suit your narrative doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.
Fortunately the voters are best paced to work out if they are better off or not and they get to vote in 49 days0 -
Really?BenM said:Let's not avoid Osborne's culpability by attempting to paint an incomplete picture. The bottom income decile has been spanked by the Tories.
Again.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/mar/18/budget-2015-george-osborne-pre-election-windfall-inheritance-tax-live-updates
14:100 -
Grexit won't happen unless there is a way to guarantee a smooth long term slide of the new greek currency or a one off devaluation that is not that big (lets say more than 25%).Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting stuff, thanks. Of course capital controls are a bit problematic in the EU (one of 'four pillars' is free movement of capital), and even more so in the Eurozone. Would be very messy indeed, I suspect.rcs1000 said:Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely.
The greeks are afraid of an uncontrollable slide or a very big devaluation (greater than 50%).
Looking at the figures Greece is in deep deflation, consumer demand is depressed, it's budget deficit is not that big and it's money supply is slumping, so in theory a new currency would not be devalued that much because there is a scarcity of money to begin with.
The problem is that someone has to guarantee that the theory will hold, the last idea that popped in my head is either a return to Bretton Woods or a return to private banks having control of the printing press.0 -
Polling suggests the economy is the Conservatives' strong suit. It can do them no harm for the media to focus on the economy for a couple of days.david_herdson said:
It was a very political budget; it was just more subtle than many other political ones. What Osborne was setting out was the narrative that the government has followed the right path but that we are a long way from the destination. In other words, Labour don't have a frigging clue and it's nowhere near safe to let them near the sweet tin again. Had he gone for big money giveaways, it would have completely undermined both messages.antifrank said:The waters will close over this budget soon enough. For a supposedly highly political chancellor, George Osborne seems by and large to have gone for the moral high ground.
There aren't many votes there.0 -
I suspect you're right. Every other Eurozone country - except France, of course - has taken their medicine now, and liberalised their labour markets. (Italy has only just done this, but still...) They've all dramatically pared government spending back.Pulpstar said:
Grexit would SURELY strengthen the Euro ?rcs1000 said:Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely. And in Germany, public opinion is increasingly pointing in the direction of allowing Greece to go.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.
Combine with potentially Ed being PM and sterling is a sell ?
In other words, the opportunity for a cyclical snap back once the existential fear of Grexit is taken away is very strong.0 -
Nah Labour's plans are tighter than that - this is one of the reasons the SNP has found their left flank so easy to attack.Indigo said:
I guess when the IMF comes calling in 2-3 years time after the 2 Eds go on a spending spree we cant afford, and the government is forced to cut 30% of everything in one year, we wont see you for dust.bigjohnowls said:
Only one chancellor wants to change the measure because the official ONS one doesnt suit their narrative.Indigo said:
Watch my lipsbigjohnowls said:
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
"It is the preferred measure of the OECD"
Not sure how it can be any clearer, its an international measurement, used to compare all countries, just because it doesn't suit your narrative doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.
Fortunately the voters are best paced to work out if they are better off or not and they get to vote in 49 days0 -
Bottom three deciles.Richard_Nabavi said:
Really?BenM said:Let's not avoid Osborne's culpability by attempting to paint an incomplete picture. The bottom income decile has been spanked by the Tories.
Again.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/mar/18/budget-2015-george-osborne-pre-election-windfall-inheritance-tax-live-updates
14:100 -
So far I can see nothing from Osborne that is going to swing the election to the Conservatives. Now that we seem over it, what about the black swan event of a Grexit that some have mentioned? Is that likely or even possible to happen before the GE?0
-
I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
IMO opinion the two winners today are Osborne and Miliband. Both performed well considering the pressure of the situation, and both are probably much closer to being PM than they were yesterday.0 -
It'll be fudged past the election by the Greeks and Germans.TCPoliticalBetting said:So far I can see nothing from Osborne that is going to swing the election to the Conservatives. Now that we seem over it, what about the black swan event of a Grexit that some have mentioned? Is that likely or even possible to happen before the GE?
0 -
Why you think EICIPM?Indigo said:
I guess when the IMF comes calling in 2-3 years time after the 2 Eds go on a spending spree we cant afford, and the government is forced to cut 30% of everything in one year, we wont see you for dust.bigjohnowls said:
Only one chancellor wants to change the measure because the official ONS one doesnt suit their narrative.Indigo said:
Watch my lipsbigjohnowls said:
Nevertheless its the official measure.Indigo said:
Those figures are gross (ie. pre-tax), and don't take into account that very large increase in the personal allowance on actual take home pay.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
Do you want to bring VAT in too?
CPI 13.2%%
Earnings 7.8%
Worse off by 5.4% on the official measure
Bullshit as much as you want
"It is the preferred measure of the OECD"
Not sure how it can be any clearer, its an international measurement, used to compare all countries, just because it doesn't suit your narrative doesn't mean we shouldn't use it.
Fortunately the voters are best paced to work out if they are better off or not and they get to vote in 49 days
Arent there only modest differences with the Tories looking for ideological cuts to the Public Services to fund more top rrate tax cuts
The OBR think the Tories have the biggest unexplained black hole BTW
MMT?
0 -
Net pay? I thought not.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings0 -
I think you over-estimate the intelligence of SYRIZA. This is a government who's first acts were:Speedy said:
Grexit won't happen unless there is a way to guarantee a smooth long term slide of the new greek currency or a one off devaluation that is not that big (lets say more than 25%).Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting stuff, thanks. Of course capital controls are a bit problematic in the EU (one of 'four pillars' is free movement of capital), and even more so in the Eurozone. Would be very messy indeed, I suspect.rcs1000 said:Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely.
The greeks are afraid of an uncontrollable slide or a very big devaluation (greater than 50%).
Looking at the figures Greece is in deep deflation, consumer demand is depressed, it's budget deficit is not that big and it's money supply is slumping, so in theory a new currency would not be devalued that much because there is a scarcity of money to begin with.
The problem is that someone has to guarantee that the theory will hold, the last idea that popped in my head is either a return to Bretton Woods or a return to private banks having control of the printing press.
1. To cancel the sale of the land of the former Athens airport. Land that was to be developed, and built on. It would have generated revenue for the government, and valuable jobs.
2. To re-employ a bunch of civil servants
3. To discourage tourism (Greece's number one revenue source)
4. To increase pensions and the minimum wage
5. And to cancel the agreed privatisations of the Port of Pireaus ("because it was not being run for the workers") and the state electricity company
They are Chavez-ian at heart. They believe the government can spend and that all will be well.
If Greece were run by economically sensible people, who planned an executed Grexit as you describe, then it would almost certainly be the best thing for the country.
But leaving the Euro to build a socialist paradise is not going to turn out well.0 -
Not a sign of any spanking of anyone, except the top decile.BenM said:
Bottom three deciles.Richard_Nabavi said:
Really?BenM said:Let's not avoid Osborne's culpability by attempting to paint an incomplete picture. The bottom income decile has been spanked by the Tories.
Again.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2015/mar/18/budget-2015-george-osborne-pre-election-windfall-inheritance-tax-live-updates
14:10
I know you can't understand this. It just doesn't compute, does it? By definition in your world view it is a universal truth that Tories are evil bastards who rob the poor to give freebies to the rich. Mere facts won't shake your prejudice.0 -
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.0 -
Child benefit changes affected people with an income of £50k or above.BenM said:
...and cut or froze child benefit and tax credits.Flightpath said:
The government increased VAT and also increased tax allowances. Transferring taxes from earnings to spending. No VAT on childrens clothes and food. Still VAT on fish and chips but not pasties though.Speedy said:
Didn't a certain George Osborne increase VAT while being chancellor ?Richard_Nabavi said:Anyone who thinks a Conservative-led government in the next parliament would increase VAT is welcome to bet with me at Evens on the matter, void if it's not a Conservative Chancellor.
I can't vouch for a Labour government, though. They'll be desperate, so might well be forced into it.
Let's not avoid Osborne's culpability by attempting to paint an incomplete picture. The bottom income decile has been spanked by the Tories.
Again.
The cap of 1% increase is related to inflation of less than 1 %.
At its 2014 conference in Manchester, Ed Balls said the 1% cap would be extended for a further year if Labour were in power.0 -
Don't book a summer holiday in Greece, that's all I'm going to say...TCPoliticalBetting said:
Not surprised. I was puzzled when you originally wrote that as I could not believe that the Greek version of the socialist workers party would agree to the structural reform. But spot on for understanding what the IMF would do.rcs1000 said:Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.
That said I am struggling to understand why Grexit would be so terrible for our economy as Osborne portrayed it. Surely a quick Grexit and realignment with an outbreak of economic sense may bring round to their senses the socialists in France? A far more dangerous situation. Afterall we have a very large International Aid budget which could be diverted to Greece as food etc whilst they sort themselves out.0 -
Mr. Pulpstar, but then it wouldn't really be a black swan, would it?
Surely the black swan is a sudden, unexpected, chaotic departure of Greece from the eurozone?0 -
I know the plans, I just don't believe them. I don't believe GO's either, but that is because I doubt he will cut as much as he says. Labour cant even announced new tax plans without pre-spending them half a dozen times, and that is before they get into office and get a line of shroud-wavers on their doorstep. Miliband has all the fiscal continence of a geriatric rabbit on diuretics, as soon as he is in office they will be hosing cash up the wall.Pulpstar said:Nah Labour's plans are tighter than that - this is one of the reasons the SNP has found their left flank so easy to attack.
0 -
Well put. I did read that the Germans were rapidly losing patience and were ready to see Greece ejected from the euro, but that the Americans were extremely concerned about the utter carnage that would result from Greece being left without money and without a serious government. Will the Troika and the creditor nations just have to grin an bear it or will the dam finally burst?rcs1000 said:
I think you over-estimate the intelligence of SYRIZA. This is a government who's first acts were:Speedy said:
Grexit won't happen unless there is a way to guarantee a smooth long term slide of the new greek currency or a one off devaluation that is not that big (lets say more than 25%).Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting stuff, thanks. Of course capital controls are a bit problematic in the EU (one of 'four pillars' is free movement of capital), and even more so in the Eurozone. Would be very messy indeed, I suspect.rcs1000 said:Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely.
The greeks are afraid of an uncontrollable slide or a very big devaluation (greater than 50%).
Looking at the figures Greece is in deep deflation, consumer demand is depressed, it's budget deficit is not that big and it's money supply is slumping, so in theory a new currency would not be devalued that much because there is a scarcity of money to begin with.
The problem is that someone has to guarantee that the theory will hold, the last idea that popped in my head is either a return to Bretton Woods or a return to private banks having control of the printing press.
1. To cancel the sale of the land of the former Athens airport. Land that was to be developed, and built on. It would have generated revenue for the government, and valuable jobs.
2. To re-employ a bunch of civil servants
3. To discourage tourism (Greece's number one revenue source)
4. To increase pensions and the minimum wage
5. And to cancel the agreed privatisations of the Port of Pireaus ("because it was not being run for the workers") and the state electricity company
They are Chavez-ian at heart. They believe the government can spend and that all will be well.
If Greece were run by economically sensible people, who planned an executed Grexit as you describe, then it would almost certainly be the best thing for the country.
But leaving the Euro to build a socialist paradise is not going to turn out well.
0 -
What part of the official measure dont you understand.MaxPB said:
Net pay? I thought not.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
You produce the net pay figures but dont forget to include tax credits if you wish.
I will stick to the official ONS measure which shows what I said it did.
ie people are worse off since 2010
I Thank you
0 -
I remember the last election when on polling day 4 events happened that influenced the outcome.TCPoliticalBetting said:So far I can see nothing from Osborne that is going to swing the election to the Conservatives. Now that we seem over it, what about the black swan event of a Grexit that some have mentioned? Is that likely or even possible to happen before the GE?
1.The first Greek Bailout of Death.
2.Dow Jones flash crash.
3.Many young people unable to vote due to lack of ballots or long cues.
4.Bad weather.
All of the above either scared people or prevented some demographics to vote, favouring the Tories and the incumbent government.
This time if someone tries to replicate the above with a Grexit, the results might be very unpredictable, either one of the top 3 parties could benefit (Tories, Labour and UKIP).0 -
No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.0
-
If Grexit happens it will be sudden, brutish and chaotic. It won't be an elegant withdrawal from the dancefloor with all the loose ends carefully tied before they pull the plug (if you pardon the mixed metaphors!)0
-
No, but as I've pointed out it leaves the SNP with a great line to attack Labour from the left withDanny565 said:No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
0 -
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
0 -
I don't underestimate anyone.rcs1000 said:
I think you over-estimate the intelligence of SYRIZA. This is a government who's first acts were:Speedy said:
Grexit won't happen unless there is a way to guarantee a smooth long term slide of the new greek currency or a one off devaluation that is not that big (lets say more than 25%).Richard_Nabavi said:
Interesting stuff, thanks. Of course capital controls are a bit problematic in the EU (one of 'four pillars' is free movement of capital), and even more so in the Eurozone. Would be very messy indeed, I suspect.rcs1000 said:Some of the most knowledgeable and thoughtful economists I know now believe that capital controls - preventing people from extracting Euros from banks and taking them abroad - are now likely.
The greeks are afraid of an uncontrollable slide or a very big devaluation (greater than 50%).
Looking at the figures Greece is in deep deflation, consumer demand is depressed, it's budget deficit is not that big and it's money supply is slumping, so in theory a new currency would not be devalued that much because there is a scarcity of money to begin with.
The problem is that someone has to guarantee that the theory will hold, the last idea that popped in my head is either a return to Bretton Woods or a return to private banks having control of the printing press.
1. To cancel the sale of the land of the former Athens airport. Land that was to be developed, and built on. It would have generated revenue for the government, and valuable jobs.
2. To re-employ a bunch of civil servants
3. To discourage tourism (Greece's number one revenue source)
4. To increase pensions and the minimum wage
5. And to cancel the agreed privatisations of the Port of Pireaus ("because it was not being run for the workers") and the state electricity company
They are Chavez-ian at heart. They believe the government can spend and that all will be well.
If Greece were run by economically sensible people, who planned an executed Grexit as you describe, then it would almost certainly be the best thing for the country.
But leaving the Euro to build a socialist paradise is not going to turn out well.
However I tend to look at the details not the headlines.
For example I looked at the detail of the former Athens Airport land sale and I discovered that only one offer was made for the land and with money that was to be borrowed from the greek government, so the sale was a sham anyway.0 -
One of the demographics that the Tories currently have a problem with is youngish couples privately renting who are struggling to afford to buy their first home. I'd have thought that the promise of £6000 in assistance from the government would be welcomed by this group.TCPoliticalBetting said:So far I can see nothing from Osborne that is going to swing the election to the Conservatives. Now that we seem over it, what about the black swan event of a Grexit that some have mentioned? Is that likely or even possible to happen before the GE?
0 -
...
0 -
@BJO:bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
The PDF of the focus group contained a typo. It did not say "stronger", it said "stranger".0 -
Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Danny- I think the main improvement with Miliband is that he looks like he is actually enjoying being leader now instead of the rabbit caught in the headlights that accidentally stumbled into the leadership.
As too does Osborne who has truly come to grips with the dark arts of politics. Osborne is not going to go away until he gets his shot at the top job, even if that takes decades- you can see it in him. He just loves being at the centre of it all far too much.0 -
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.Danny565 said:No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.0 -
They are level over the last 10 days at around the midway point of about 33.5.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories.
1 point swing to Con from now plus 1.5% polling error swing for shy Tory/unregistered and demotivated Labour grosses up to a 5 point lead.
It's certainly feasible without any great movement from where we are.
0 -
' know you can't understand this. It just doesn't compute, does it?'
Trouble is, it doesn't compute with enough people. Labour's branding of themselves and the tories is taken as gospel by much of the nation.
And by some of the wealthy, patrician, wet tories too.
0 -
Maybe. But the major shortages are in the South East and London. Does £6k overcome the London problem? I doubt it. The problem is a supply that is too low and a demand that is too high. Providing more funds to the demand part does not help.OblitusSumMe said:
One of the demographics that the Tories currently have a problem with is youngish couples privately renting who are struggling to afford to buy their first home. I'd have thought that the promise of £6000 in assistance from the government would be welcomed by this group.TCPoliticalBetting said:So far I can see nothing from Osborne that is going to swing the election to the Conservatives. Now that we seem over it, what about the black swan event of a Grexit that some have mentioned? Is that likely or even possible to happen before the GE?
0 -
LOLrcs1000 said:
@BJO:bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
The PDF of the focus group contained a typo. It did not say "stronger", it said "stranger".
Still a serious drag on LAB.
But signs of improvement IMO
Wonder why Dave is avoiding the Ed to head debate.0 -
Beer goggle eyes?bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
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Agree with much of that. They both did well. I guess GO's pitch is to the currently undecided. A giveaway would have been too obvious and reckless. This set the right tone for a don't let Labour ruin it campaign. Ed, though, responded very strongly and pressed all the right anti-Tory buttons. Where I think the Tories have an edge is that it is hard to see why the vast majority of those who voted for them last time would not vote for them again. And if they get 35% or so they are probably the largest party in the Commons and the biggest part of the next government.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
IMO opinion the two winners today are Osborne and Miliband. Both performed well considering the pressure of the situation, and both are probably much closer to being PM than they were yesterday.
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Number killed in terrorist attack (or as the BBC will report is "attack by militants") is rising.
Nineteen people, including 17 foreign tourists, have been killed after gunmen targeted a museum in the Tunisian capital, the Prime Minister says.0 -
FWIW they used some mealy mouthed bullsh1t phrase "we have no current plans" rather than stated they are not going to raise.SouthamObserver said:
The evidence is the last two times the Tories were returned to power after a GE in which they stated they were not going to raise VAT.Charles said:
Is there any evidence for it, though?SouthamObserver said:
I am certainly no EdM fan, but thought he did very well today. The VAT thing is very clever.bigjohnowls said:Adam Boulton @adamboultonSKY 16m16 minutes ago Hounslow, London
COMMENT EM keeps it short and delivers his best Budget reply, better speech than GO - for what that's worth.
Wow if Boulton who usually comes over as a massive Tory is saying that shows how some people on here really need to get real.
Or don't you need evidence these days to denounce someone?
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/8192095.stm
http://www.heraldscotland.com/sport/spl/aberdeen/lamont-in-new-storm-over-vat-on-fuel-bills-1.765713
But past performance is no evidence for future performance. If you are going to make a specific accusation it should be at least tangentially related to the facts0 -
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Why do we still think Ed is crap?bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance this afternoon must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) Post-Budget Responses ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy Bullingdon posh-boy Cameron.
Roll on May 7th! 0 -
Free pint if Labour hose up in Ilford NorthSunil_Prasannan said:
Why do we still think Ed is crap?bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance this afternoon must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) Post-Budget Responses ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy Bullingdon posh-boy Cameron.
Roll on May 7th! 0 -
The NHS was the one line of attack that Osborne didn’t shut down, and it will be the main line of attack in an aggressive campaign from Labour. Labour will try to scare voters about the prospect of the Tories being in charge of the NHS as the Tories try to scare voters about the prospect of a Labour Chancellor. The result of the election may end up hinging simply on which is the least scary prospect.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/labours-aggressive-election-campaign-was-evident-in-milibands-budget-response/
I thought Ed hates lies and spin and personal attacks...I think he is going to give as good as gets in the GE in terms of muck throwing.0 -
You are absolutely right- but this level of economic analysis is just too nuanced for the electorate I'm afraid. Expect 6 weeks of Bill and Ben soundbite politics. The Tories have 2 soundbites- Labour will wreck the economy, and do you want Miliband as PM? Labour has two- the Tories will destroy public services and will increase VAT. It is likely this will fall down to a straight fight between the economy vs public services as the VAT claims and attacks on Miliband fall away.david_herdson said:
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.Danny565 said:No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.
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We wanted to visit some relatives there (not seen in 20 years) in Sept. May have to delay the booking.rcs1000 said:
Don't book a summer holiday in Greece, that's all I'm going to say...TCPoliticalBetting said:
Not surprised. I was puzzled when you originally wrote that as I could not believe that the Greek version of the socialist workers party would agree to the structural reform. But spot on for understanding what the IMF would do.rcs1000 said:Re the General Election and potential Grexit:
I'm sure many of you will remember my sanguine views that the Greek Euro issue would be solved by extending the maturities on Greek debt, slashing the interest that needed to be paid, and tying repayments to increases in Greece's GDP. I further said that Greece would no longer be required to run a 4% primary budget surplus, and the troika would be happy with 1.5-2.0%.
Well. That's not looking too likely right now. The Greeks have been offered all the baubles I mentioned above (which, btw, are equivalent to a 40% haircut, only without calling it a haircut), but are baulking at the quid pro quo: structural reforms.
The IMF has come out and said that Greece is the least co-operative and helpful "client" in the 70 year history of the organisation. Which is quite an achievement, when you consider some of the dubious other states that have turned up at the IMF's door.
The chances of disorganised Grexit are growing once more.
That said I am struggling to understand why Grexit would be so terrible for our economy as Osborne portrayed it. Surely a quick Grexit and realignment with an outbreak of economic sense may bring round to their senses the socialists in France? A far more dangerous situation. Afterall we have a very large International Aid budget which could be diverted to Greece as food etc whilst they sort themselves out.
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Damned with the faintest of faint praise springs to mind.Sean_F said:
Brown was a worse Chancellor than Osborne.BenM said:Said Ed would have a good day today and he did.
As for Osborne - oh dear. Good riddance in May to the worst chancellor in my lifetime. He can enjoy Balls trashing his record in the emergency budget in the autumn from the Opposition benches.
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Totally agree with this. The public have been shown time and time again to not understand nor care about the reality of the economic situation...so it will be soundbites and bulls##t (like this Tories will raise VAT claim that has been made up out of thin air and Tories will go banging on about cutting deficit that people will think they mean debt).tyson said:
You are absolutely right- but this level of economic analysis is just too nuanced for the electorate I'm afraid. Expect 6 weeks of Bill and Ben soundbite politics. The Tories have 2 soundbites- Labour will wreck the economy, and do you want Miliband as PM? Labour has two- the Tories will destroy public services and will increase VAT. It is likely this will fall down to a straight fight between the economy vs public services as the VAT claims and attacks on Miliband fall away.david_herdson said:
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.Danny565 said:No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.
People are certainly not going to be studying graphs like this,
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/files/2015/03/Screen-Shot-2015-03-18-at-13.07.00-545x413.png
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/budget-2015-in-six-graphs/0 -
So that's still a no then? The rest of it is bullshit. People's net pay has increased more than prices.bigjohnowls said:
What part of the official measure dont you understand.MaxPB said:
Net pay? I thought not.bigjohnowls said:
It is an inconvenient truth but nevertheless trueMaxPB said:
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?bigjohnowls said:
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.Floater said:
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?bigjohnowls said:
ONS agree with EdFloater said:
Seriously?MarqueeMark said:Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
what a muppet.
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/lms/labour-market-statistics/march-2015/statistical-bulletin.html#tab-6--Average-Weekly-Earnings
You produce the net pay figures but dont forget to include tax credits if you wish.
I will stick to the official ONS measure which shows what I said it did.
ie people are worse off since 2010
I Thank you0 -
It's that which may do it for Labour. No clear plan.david_herdson said:
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.Danny565 said:No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.0 -
Osborne and Miliband's performances won't matter a fraction. How the media decide to carve the post-budget narrative will be key to swinging any voters.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
IMO opinion the two winners today are Osborne and Miliband. Both performed well considering the pressure of the situation, and both are probably much closer to being PM than they were yesterday.
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Excellent response by Ed Miliband,possibly stung by the below the belt personal attack on his mum's tax affairs which, considering the way Cameron and Osborne's family fortunes were made,could rebound in spades.
There was nothing I could see to move the polls the Tories way although the supine Dacre/Murdoch.Barclay Bros Tory press will do their best to big it up.The fact that the NHS was not mentioned heightens suspicion that the McKinsey's plan for co-payments is on the agenda and the 2010 lie on increasing VAT will be repeated.0 -
I don't think the Athens Airport process went as you think it did. There were five or six bidders involved until a very late stage, and IIRC indicative bids had been submitted. People who knew they were going to lose backed out.Speedy said:I don't underestimate anyone.
However I tend to look at the details not the headlines.
For example I looked at the detail of the former Athens Airport land sale and I discovered that only one offer was made for the land and with money that was to be borrowed from the greek government, so the sale was a sham anyway.
And the winning bid was financed, again IIRC, by the Chinese not by the Greek government.0 -
Ed stood up without soiling himself. Big deal.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Beer goggle eyes?bigjohnowls said:
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.Danny565 said:
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.tyson said:I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!0 -
"Brown was a worse Chancellor than Osborne."
Don't think that slogan is a voter winner :-)
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You are absolutely right- but this level of economic analysis is just too nuanced for the electorate I'm afraid. Expect 6 weeks of Bill and Ben soundbite politics. The Tories have 2 soundbites- Labour will wreck the economy, and do you want Miliband as PM? Labour has two- the Tories will destroy public services and will increase VAT. It is likely this will fall down to a straight fight between the economy vs public services as the VAT claims and attacks on Miliband fall away.
Totally agree with this. The public have been shown time and time again to not understand nor care about the reality of the economic situation...so it will be soundbites and bulls##t (like this Tories will raise VAT claim that has been made up out of thin air and Tories will go banging on about cutting deficit that people will think they mean debt).
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
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Labour seem to be re-running their 2010 campaign, which lost.FrancisUrquhart said:The public have been shown time and time again to not understand nor care about the reality of the economic situation...
The theme is the same - Tories cutting too far, too fast, more borrowing.
It's a bit unclear why they expect a different outcome.
They are desperately trying to drum up a calamity in the NHS, but what evidence is there for the alternative 'fewer cuts' strategy that ordinary people want to pay more in tax to plug the gap?
Most people are cynical enough to know that bankers, mansion tax etc will not pay for it all and they opted against Labour in 2010 when they tried the same strategy.
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Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.tyson said:
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/election_2010/8614075.stm
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start. Osborne isn't afraid to get dirty and Tories pay Lynton for a reason, so only a matter of time before we get the Tories pushing stuff like the "Death Tax" like last time.0 -
11 Ways Tony Blair was more Socialist than Ed Miliband: http://www.buzzfeed.com/jonstone/sorry-but-he-isnt-clement-attlee-mk-2
See, I'm not the only one who thinks Labour's platform this year is further to the Right than any of New Labour's 0
