No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.
You are absolutely right- but this level of economic analysis is just too nuanced for the electorate I'm afraid. Expect 6 weeks of Bill and Ben soundbite politics. The Tories have 2 soundbites- Labour will wreck the economy, and do you want Miliband as PM? Labour has two- the Tories will destroy public services and will increase VAT. It is likely this will fall down to a straight fight between the economy vs public services as the VAT claims and attacks on Miliband fall away.
Totally agree with this. The public have been shown time and time again to not understand nor care about the reality of the economic situation...so it will be soundbites and bulls##t /
Fact. Who's bull##t is best is also rather irrelevant, as it comes down more to whose bulls##t people are in the mood for.
@MaxPB "People's net pay has increased more than prices. "
Whose pay specifically? Remembering of course that we are talking about average pay across a wide variety of sectors. This is probably not a concern of yours, but I can assure you it matters to most of the population.
No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
On that I actually disagree with you. It should be true - cuts are cuts are cuts after all - but for far far too many people it seems they either believe Labour are going to end austerity, which they're not, or they think Labour austerity will be automatically better because Labour are nicer than the Tories.
If Grexit happens it will be sudden, brutish and chaotic. It won't be an elegant withdrawal from the dancefloor with all the loose ends carefully tied before they pull the plug (if you pardon the mixed metaphors!)
I think it was Schauble who quipped the most likely route is a Greccident -whereby they fall out of the Euro pretty much by accident. In my view the likely trigger would be a run on Greek banks. If depositors suddnely lost faith (and god knows how anyone can have any faith at all in the Greek state/bank mutual aid society) then the banks would collapse PDQ! The Greek state is utterly incapable of rescuing them and the ECB utterly unwilling.
If the likes of Osborne and Balls were less about politics and more about doing the right thing...they would be doing this. Osborne flew this kite and that was it.
"Economist Andrew Sentance tells the BBC that he would have like to have seen changes to national insurance. He accepts it would have been difficult for the chancellor to do something ahead of the general election, but says tax reforms should be high on the agenda for the next government."
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start. Osborne isn't afraid to get dirty and Tories pay Lynton for a reason, so only a matter of time before we get the Tories pushing stuff like the "Death Tax" like last time.
The Tories have form on fibbing about VAT, though. They say they will not raise it and then they do. It's perfectly reasonable to point that out.
A damp squib of a budget that won't shift many votes at all.
There'll be predictably fawning coverage from Murdoch, Dacre and Co, and a short term improvement in the Tories YouGov position.
But Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags on May 8th.
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
Seriously?
what a muppet.
ONS agree with Ed
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
Ah, you just ignored what my original point was regarding and debated a point I had not made.
They will make a politician out of you yet.
PS. Re Tunisia - horrible news but it is a sad fact that security will be higher after such an event and the terrorists will look elsewhere for a target for a while in all probability.
Not that on an emotional level that will make you feel any better.
Completely moving to a different subject the one thing that I have not heard discussed is whether Cameron might refresh his top team should he be returned.
Could this have been Osborne's last budget come what may? If so where might he go? Will Hammond lead the party into the referendum negotiations. Will Theresa May remain Home Secretary? What job can Michael Gove look forward to for his loyalty. How will Cameron placate the right of the party? Who will be the rising stars?
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start.
Labour really are bereft of all ideas. Blair saw to that. Labour are the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support public services, and the Tories the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support the market- but both would equally swop position if that meant clinging onto power- ergo's Osborne's adoption of plan B and losing any grip of his borrowing targets.
This election though does matter to one very important constituent that doesn't vote. The badger. And for that I'm going with the Ed's.
The vilest thing I remember from the last campaign was that Labour attack ad where the family was in the car and the girl had cancer or some such. Their entire Scottish campaign is already also based on Lies, lies and more lies (Mainly about the constitution)
Labour will be well up to matching Lynton come this GE campaign.
A damp squib of a budget that won't shift many votes at all.
There'll be predictably fawning coverage from Murdoch, Dacre and Co, and a short term improvement in the Tories YouGov position.
But Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags on May 8th.
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
@MaxPB "People's net pay has increased more than prices. "
Whose pay specifically? Remembering of course that we are talking about average pay across a wide variety of sectors. This is probably not a concern of yours, but I can assure you it matters to most of the population.
It's not just about pay rates, though, is it? If you're in one of the 2m jobs created since 2010, you might see it differently.
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Those sorts of words are just so much pablum to me unfortunately, whether or not there is any truth to them, as they form the base of any lazy partisan attack from the parties (depending on who is attacking who) and so they could be 100% true and have no impact on me due to overuse by spin doctors.
Fortunately for Labour they don't have to have an impact on me personally and I agree that Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags, more simply because people feel it is time for a change. 1 term which really has only been mildly crappy with some good bits doesn't seem like 'time for a change' territory to me, but it just feels like the Tories are not getting any benefit from any good news, or at least not enough, and a lot of people do believe that even though they will be cutting severely, Labour cuts do not hurt as bad as Tory cuts, and that's all Labour need.
If we get an Ed Miliband minority Govt (in line with the polls), when will the economic crisis points come? Presumably the better state of UK Govt finances will give the incoming Govt some breathing space and interest rate rises seem to be 12 to 18 months away. So being able to spend and borrow more in 15/16 and 16/17 delays the crunch time until 17/18? Or is it sooner? Of course a French meltdown may bring the crisis about sooner.
I was having an interesting chat with Fat Steve last night at the PB drinks about one of the most curious and striking features of the current political landscape, which is that Labour aren't behaving at all like a party which thinks it might be in government in a few weeks' time. Miliband's budget response further reinforces that. It was the kind of response which makes a bit of sense if you are certain you are miles behind, but which makes no sense at all if you are trying to present yourself as a serious alternative government.
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start.
Labour really are bereft of all ideas. Blair saw to that. Labour are the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support public services, and the Tories the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support the market- but both would equally swop position if that meant clinging onto power- ergo's Osborne's adoption of plan B and losing any grip of his borrowing targets.
This election though does matter to one very important constituent that doesn't vote. The badger. And for that I'm going with the Ed's.
No matter how strongly Miliband might perform, the fundamental problem for Labour remains that they can't launch a proper attack on the Tories' extreme spending cuts when they've got almost equally extreme plans. "Labour cuts are better than Tory cuts" is simply not going to wash for any voters except the most mindlessly tribal; cuts are cuts are cuts.
I think the fundamental problem for Labour is that they're trying to have it both ways. They're criticising because the deficit hasn't come down but also criticising 'too far too fast'; they pledge to reduce the deficit but oppose every cut (and make precious few alternative proposals); they want to appear populist and prudent at the same time.
There is no overarching strategy that each announcement is linked to and so they then find themselves tied in knots by their own announcements when facing a competent interviewer.
You are absolutely right- but this level of economic analysis is just too nuanced for the electorate I'm afraid. Expect 6 weeks of Bill and Ben soundbite politics. The Tories have 2 soundbites- Labour will wreck the economy, and do you want Miliband as PM? Labour has two- the Tories will destroy public services and will increase VAT. It is likely this will fall down to a straight fight between the economy vs public services as the VAT claims and attacks on Miliband fall away.
Totally agree with this. The public have been shown time and time again to not understand nor care about the reality of the economic situation...so it will be soundbites and bulls##t (like this Tories will raise VAT claim that has been made up out of thin air and Tories will go banging on about cutting deficit that people will think they mean debt).
People are certainly not going to be studying graphs like this,
Out of the red and into the black – Britain is back paying its way in the world.
The budget deficit is forecast to be £75bn next financial year. That's a long way from being in the black and paying our way, particularly when you consider that the current account deficit is forecast to be more than 4% too.
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start. Osborne isn't afraid to get dirty and Tories pay Lynton for a reason, so only a matter of time before we get the Tories pushing stuff like the "Death Tax" like last time.
The Tories have form on fibbing about VAT, though. They say they will not raise it and then they do. It's perfectly reasonable to point that out.
After the 2010 election... ''Today a series of ministers raised concerns that they were discovering new spending commitments on their department's books. The business secretary, Vince Cable, accused the previous Labour government of hiding the scale of public debt. "I fear that a lot of bad news has been hidden and stored up for the new government. The skeletons are starting to fall out of the cupboard." '' http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/16/george-osborne-cut-spending-blanchflower
As for Osborne - oh dear. Good riddance in May to the worst chancellor in my lifetime. He can enjoy Balls trashing his record in the emergency budget in the autumn from the Opposition benches.
Brown was a worse Chancellor than Osborne.
Damned with the faintest of faint praise springs to mind.
"Better than Brown" is indeed like "dryer than water."
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start.
Labour really are bereft of all ideas. Blair saw to that. Labour are the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support public services, and the Tories the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support the market- but both would equally swop position if that meant clinging onto power- ergo's Osborne's adoption of plan B and losing any grip of his borrowing targets.
This election though does matter to one very important constituent that doesn't vote. The badger. And for that I'm going with the Ed's.
The badger cull that Labour rejected, this Government introduced, and has failed to do anything useful whatsoever. It's one of those specialist sectors of voters - if you're on an animal protection mailing list you'll have had mailings about it for more than a year; if you're not, you're probably not aware of it.
Mr. Me, a fair point. Politicians and often delinquent media are complicit in this, or in 'mistaking' deficit for debt (admittedly, some people are stupid enough to do that through idiocy rather than deviousness, but still).
However, Labour cannot [legitimately, at least] attack the Coalition for cutting too far, too fast, and then for cutting too little, too slowly.
Mr. kle4, are you suggesting PB Tories are like Cylons?
Looking through the OBR forecasts. Table 1.1. The OBR have Net Trade as a drag on GDP growth in every year of the forecast. Meanwhile household consumption is forecast to grow at a higher rate than GDP overall for 2015-17.
I have to hand it to Labour HQ for throwing in the VAT claim. Really dirty, dark art politics. They could have said too that the Tories are proposing an amnesty for all paedos if they get elected for a 2nd term, but heh, give them time.
Well they just repeating the same tactic they used last time, which was oldie perks were going to get slashed...Scare the crap out of oldies might not be able to heat their homes etc. Then after forcing Cameron to say he wouldn't, then of course they paint him as protecting the wealthy OAPs.
They also got caught out with dirty campaign over health stuff. Sending out leaflets whiched scared cancer patients.
I imagine we will get loads more of that. I think it is going to get very dirty and this made up "Tory secret plan" with VAT rises and slashing the NHS is just the start.
Labour really are bereft of all ideas. Blair saw to that. Labour are the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support public services, and the Tories the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support the market- but both would equally swop position if that meant clinging onto power- ergo's Osborne's adoption of plan B and losing any grip of his borrowing targets.
This election though does matter to one very important constituent that doesn't vote. The badger. And for that I'm going with the Ed's.
@paulwaugh: .@edballsmp, perhaps remembering his and EdM's CVs, hastily adds:"Too many tweets make a *Tory* Treasury special adviser..."
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh · 1h 1 hour ago There were twice as many mentions of Agincourt (2) as NHS in Budget. What happened to PM's 'top priority in 3 letters: N-H-S'?
Instead of a bit here and a bit there, why not take all the money you plan to give away and see how much you can reduce fuel duty with it.
Not freeze, reduce. 10bp off. Or whatever 6 billion equates to. Leave everything else. Just say that if you vote for us there's a f8ck of a lot more where that came from.
Ed's telling a lie about people being worse off under this Govt., in spite of numbers given by the Chancellor. Maybe he just couldn't re-write his script whilst on his feet.....
Trust fund and Bullingdon. Oh dear....
Seriously?
what a muppet.
ONS agree with Ed
The ONS shout "bullingdon"? You do surprise me - can you point out where?
or are you just talking crap again ;-)
No on the official measure of whether you are better off.
GO is talking crap and inventing new measures
Again, please provide evidence for this assertion. You have said this many times today and not backed it up with any evidence. Is it just more bullshit as usual from you?
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Those sorts of words are just so much pablum to me unfortunately, whether or not there is any truth to them, as they form the base of any lazy partisan attack from the parties (depending on who is attacking who) and so they could be 100% true and have no impact on me due to overuse by spin doctors.
Fortunately for Labour they don't have to have an impact on me personally and I agree that Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags, more simply because people feel it is time for a change. 1 term which really has only been mildly crappy with some good bits doesn't seem like 'time for a change' territory to me, but it just feels like the Tories are not getting any benefit from any good news, or at least not enough, and a lot of people do believe that even though they will be cutting severely, Labour cuts do not hurt as bad as Tory cuts, and that's all Labour need.
We need to remember that Labour got 29% of the vote last time and 250 odd seats with Gordon Brown. All Ed needs to do is bring over a few of the public sector workers that went walkabout at the last GE. A 32% strategy. That is why Labour's vote is remaining stubbornly stable despite being bereft of an ideas and with Ed's poor ratings. It can win fighting the 2010 election game plan again because Brown has gone.
The bottom line is that the Tory brand is just too toxic to bring in the kind of winning coalition of voters that the Tories need to win a majority. Cameron tried his best. The only people I can think of that can transcend the Tory brand are Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
I can't see how this budget is going to drive forward Kellner's decisive 36/31 vote split for the Tories. Miliband's performance was certainly much better than expected. The Tory's problem with banging on about the Miliband factor is that he is now performing better. He's starting to look like a leader of sorts which is saying something considering the low point he came from.
Interestingly, Ashcroft's focus-group report the other day also reported a few people saying they thought Miliband had been coming across stronger in recent weeks.
Have to admit I've not really been seeing it myself.
His budget response was by far the best I have seen from him.
Might have to drop the IC from EICIPM at this rate!
Why do we still think Ed is crap?
Ed is most definitely not crap! He is merely misunderstood, and I put it to you that is the chief reason why he is so maligned and ridiculed by the evil right-wing media.
I am certain you will agree with me that Ed is magnificently charismatic and eloquent. He is an inspiring and refreshing standard bearer for the social democratic tradition in our great nation. Yes, indeed: One Nation. Nay, his performance this afternoon must surely have been amongst the greatest (if not the greatest) Post-Budget Responses ever given by a leader of the Labour Party, or indeed of any party leader! Such magnificence, such poise, such alacrity. Wow! And his wonderful repertoire of jokes would put even Harry Hill to shame!
He is articulate, passionate, an accomplished orator, and I think a real progressive alternative to the smarmy Bullingdon posh-boy Cameron.
Roll on May 7th!
Free pint if Labour hose up in Ilford North
After 6pm (?) that will be cheaper than yesterday - I hope everyone out chewing the fat appreciates it and raises a glass to George tonight.
Instead of a bit here and a bit there, why not take all the money you plan to give away and see how much you can reduce fuel duty with it.
Not freeze, reduce. 10bp off. Or whatever 6 billion equates to. Leave everything else. Just say that if you vote for us there's a f8ck of a lot more where that came from.
Because then the Climate Change cult would have a fit.......
One of the demographics that the Tories currently have a problem with is youngish couples privately renting who are struggling to afford to buy their first home. I'd have thought that the promise of £6000 in assistance from the government would be welcomed by this group.
Does this only apply for couples who put 10% down? Can someone put 90% down and still claim the £6k? And is there an age limit?
America's Sweethearts - aka the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders - are far and away the best cheer leading squad in US sports. The daughter of a friend is a cheerleader with the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are nowhere near as professional as the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. I've seen enough cheer leading performances Live and on TV to say the Cowboys squad is the best and most professional.
While failing to find information about the new rail franchise for the South-West I found out about a consultation on increasing the speed limit for armoured vehicles. Thoughts?
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Those sorts of words are just so much pablum to me unfortunately, whether or not there is any truth to them, as they form the base of any lazy partisan attack from the parties (depending on who is attacking who) and so they could be 100% true and have no impact on me due to overuse by spin doctors.
Fortunately for Labour they don't have to have an impact on me personally and I agree that Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags, more simply because people feel it is time for a change. 1 term which really has only been mildly crappy with some good bits doesn't seem like 'time for a change' territory to me, but it just feels like the Tories are not getting any benefit from any good news, or at least not enough, and a lot of people do believe that even though they will be cutting severely, Labour cuts do not hurt as bad as Tory cuts, and that's all Labour need.
We need to remember that Labour got 29% of the vote last time and 250 odd seats with Gordon Brown. All Ed needs to do is bring over a few of the public sector workers that went walkabout at the last GE. A 32% strategy. That is why Labour's vote is remaining stubbornly stable despite being bereft of an ideas and with Ed's poor ratings. It can win fighting the 2010 election game plan again because Brown has gone.
The bottom line is that the Tory brand is just too toxic to bring in the kind of winning coalition of voters that the Tories need to win a majority. Cameron tried his best.
Sounds about right. The Tories have lost some, gained some, but not enough given Labour's task is much easier. Not inevitable, mostly due to Scotland, but still easier.
While failing to find information about the new rail franchise for the South-West I found out about a consultation on increasing the speed limit for armoured vehicles. Thoughts?
AR-15 and Kalashnikov full metal jacket bullets go faster?
Mr. Me, a fair point. Politicians and often delinquent media are complicit in this, or in 'mistaking' deficit for debt (admittedly, some people are stupid enough to do that through idiocy rather than deviousness, but still).
However, Labour cannot [legitimately, at least] attack the Coalition for cutting too far, too fast, and then for cutting too little, too slowly.
Mr. kle4, are you suggesting PB Tories are like Cylons?
Labour are without doubt providing a particularly inept Opposition, which is a shame, because there is plenty to oppose in the current government's record and less than entirely honest portrayal of that record.
Thinking about it, had the Lib Dems decided not to enter Coalition with the Conservatives, but to provide supply and confidence instead, they would have been better placed to provide credible opposition than a Labour party entirely unable to face up to their failures in office.
Perhaps they would have provided better service to the country by keeping the government honest from the opposition benches, than in having a few seats around the Cabinet table. All speculation on my part, though.
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Those sorts of words are just so much pablum to me unfortunately, whether or not there is any truth to them, as they form the base of any lazy partisan attack from the parties (depending on who is attacking who) and so they could be 100% true and have no impact on me due to overuse by spin doctors.
Fortunately for Labour they don't have to have an impact on me personally and I agree that Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags, more simply because people feel it is time for a change. 1 term which really has only been mildly crappy with some good bits doesn't seem like 'time for a change' territory to me, but it just feels like the Tories are not getting any benefit from any good news, or at least not enough, and a lot of people do believe that even though they will be cutting severely, Labour cuts do not hurt as bad as Tory cuts, and that's all Labour need.
We need to remember that Labour got 29% of the vote last time and 250 odd seats with Gordon Brown. All Ed needs to do is bring over a few of the public sector workers that went walkabout at the last GE. A 32% strategy. That is why Labour's vote is remaining stubbornly stable despite being bereft of an ideas and with Ed's poor ratings. It can win fighting the 2010 election game plan again because Brown has gone.
The bottom line is that the Tory brand is just too toxic to bring in the kind of winning coalition of voters that the Tories need to win a majority. Cameron tried his best.
Sounds about right. The Tories have lost some, gained some, but not enough given Labour's task is much easier. Not inevitable, mostly due to Scotland, but still easier.
Labour's 32-33% strategy would have probably been enough to secure a slender majority, but for the Scottish indy vote which rather threw a spanner in the proverbial. It is probably sufficient to make it the largest party, just. I can still see the Tories getting more votes though.
BTW- and something that I thought I'd never say, Danny Alexander seems to be a good sort, in the Alistair Darling mould of integrity and niceness. I think he knows his number is up mind, and probably resigned to his fate.
As for Osborne - oh dear. Good riddance in May to the worst chancellor in my lifetime. He can enjoy Balls trashing his record in the emergency budget in the autumn from the Opposition benches.
The £1 miIIion pension Iimit is going to make more GPs retire.
Three weeks ago 3 were interviewed on R4 saying they had maxed out their £1.25m pension pots and wouId be standing down as it wouId aII be at marginaI rate now.
SoIution:pay GPs West European average and spend the savig on hiring 20% more.
Comments
Brown was worse than every other Chancellor ever in the history of time, probably in any country on any planet.
"People's net pay has increased more than prices. "
Whose pay specifically? Remembering of course that we are talking about average pay across a wide variety of sectors.
This is probably not a concern of yours, but I can assure you it matters to most of the population.
"Economist Andrew Sentance tells the BBC that he would have like to have seen changes to national insurance. He accepts it would have been difficult for the chancellor to do something ahead of the general election, but says tax reforms should be high on the agenda for the next government."
There'll be predictably fawning coverage from Murdoch, Dacre and Co, and a short term improvement in the Tories YouGov position.
But Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags on May 8th.
The saddest thing was that Osborne showed absolutely no understanding of just how tough it still is for ordinary folk out there. By contrast Ed Miliband looked like he genuinely "gets it".
Time for a change.
They will make a politician out of you yet.
PS. Re Tunisia - horrible news but it is a sad fact that security will be higher after such an event and the terrorists will look elsewhere for a target for a while in all probability.
Not that on an emotional level that will make you feel any better.
Could this have been Osborne's last budget come what may? If so where might he go? Will Hammond lead the party into the referendum negotiations. Will Theresa May remain Home Secretary? What job can Michael Gove look forward to for his loyalty. How will Cameron placate the right of the party? Who will be the rising stars?
Labour really are bereft of all ideas. Blair saw to that. Labour are the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support public services, and the Tories the capitalist, managerial party that are slightly more inclined to support the market- but both would equally swop position if that meant clinging onto power- ergo's Osborne's adoption of plan B and losing any grip of his borrowing targets.
This election though does matter to one very important constituent that doesn't vote. The badger. And for that I'm going with the Ed's.
Labour will be well up to matching Lynton come this GE campaign.
Never mind... keep trying.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GKg8G9sMWUY
Fortunately for Labour they don't have to have an impact on me personally and I agree that Cameron and Osborne will be packing their bags, more simply because people feel it is time for a change. 1 term which really has only been mildly crappy with some good bits doesn't seem like 'time for a change' territory to me, but it just feels like the Tories are not getting any benefit from any good news, or at least not enough, and a lot of people do believe that even though they will be cutting severely, Labour cuts do not hurt as bad as Tory cuts, and that's all Labour need.
hah OGH has finally been unmasked. Are there any other items that are going to come out of the closet that we can talk about?
Remember folks, you could be a secretTory and not even know it!
http://zombiesofthecorn.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/09/zombie1.jpg
http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1679119/Tories-wont-rule-out-20-VAT-rise.html
After the 2010 election...
''Today a series of ministers raised concerns that they were discovering new spending commitments on their department's books. The business secretary, Vince Cable, accused the previous Labour government of hiding the scale of public debt. "I fear that a lot of bad news has been hidden and stored up for the new government. The skeletons are starting to fall out of the cupboard." ''
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2010/may/16/george-osborne-cut-spending-blanchflower
However, Labour cannot [legitimately, at least] attack the Coalition for cutting too far, too fast, and then for cutting too little, too slowly.
Mr. kle4, are you suggesting PB Tories are like Cylons?
They said Ed Miliband must approve my articles before publication.
@paulwaugh: .@edballsmp, perhaps remembering his and EdM's CVs, hastily adds:"Too many tweets make a *Tory* Treasury special adviser..."
There were twice as many mentions of Agincourt (2) as NHS in Budget. What happened to PM's 'top priority in 3 letters: N-H-S'?
Instead of a bit here and a bit there, why not take all the money you plan to give away and see how much you can reduce fuel duty with it.
Not freeze, reduce. 10bp off. Or whatever 6 billion equates to. Leave everything else. Just say that if you vote for us there's a f8ck of a lot more where that came from.
ONS or other independent body will do.
CONHOME or the Daily Mail does not count
The bottom line is that the Tory brand is just too toxic to bring in the kind of winning coalition of voters that the Tories need to win a majority. Cameron tried his best. The only people I can think of that can transcend the Tory brand are Theresa May and Boris Johnson.
America's Sweethearts - aka the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders - are far and away the best cheer leading squad in US sports. The daughter of a friend is a cheerleader with the Atlanta Hawks. The Hawks are nowhere near as professional as the Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders. I've seen enough cheer leading performances Live and on TV to say the Cowboys squad is the best and most professional.
Of course, I'm not a fan....
The Labour squad is pretty much as expected.
Thinking about it, had the Lib Dems decided not to enter Coalition with the Conservatives, but to provide supply and confidence instead, they would have been better placed to provide credible opposition than a Labour party entirely unable to face up to their failures in office.
Perhaps they would have provided better service to the country by keeping the government honest from the opposition benches, than in having a few seats around the Cabinet table. All speculation on my part, though.
The tax-free personal allowance to rise from £10,600 in 2015-6 to £10,800 in 2016-7 and £11,000 in 2017-8
BTW- and something that I thought I'd never say, Danny Alexander seems to be a good sort, in the Alistair Darling mould of integrity and niceness. I think he knows his number is up mind, and probably resigned to his fate.
Or are you that tribal.
Three weeks ago 3 were interviewed on R4 saying they had maxed out their £1.25m pension pots and wouId be standing down as it wouId aII be at marginaI rate now.
SoIution:pay GPs West European average and spend the savig on hiring 20% more.