politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The last budget of the 2010-2015 parliament

Cabinet celebrates the Budget ‘in the traditional manner’ http://t.co/YuqJjv7bKf pic.twitter.com/cQrQMZGOdb
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I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first0 -
First
After the disqualified cheat TSE.0 -
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first0 -
off to a good start...
@IsabelHardman: Labour MP criticises a 'vacuous soundbite' at PMQs but unfortunately mis-quotes it0 -
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
It doesn't matter. No-one pays any attention to PMQs on Budget Day.Pulpstar said:Whats Ed going to go on in PMQs ?
I can't actually think of a decent topic for him - NHS maybe ?
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What was the reaction to that budget like on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
Well, many Tory supporters of this parish do keep confidently reminding us that Osborne's budgets can be gamechangers.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
I think you can't say we're all in it together and cut the higher rate of tax.Pulpstar said:
What was the reaction to that budget like on here ?TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
NHS it is (though sidetracked by lots of very unfunny quips about kitchens)0
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As far as I'm concerned, the 2012 budget was the straw that broke the camel's back. At some point in the parliament, the emphasis was going to have to shift from Labour's problem to the Tories' (/the Coalition's) solution, about which the public were always going to be less favourable. It was simply the marker for that change.Polruan said:
Well, many Tory supporters of this parish do keep confidently reminding us that Osborne's budgets can be gamechangers.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
George Osborne has been responsible for two out of the three major sustained polling shifts in the last decade. (one in favour of the Tories, one in favour of Labour)Polruan said:
Well, many Tory supporters of this parish do keep confidently reminding us that Osborne's budgets can be gamechangers.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
Science: Terminator 2-inspired 3D printing process is created:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-31918215
Looks rather cool.0 -
A very combative PMQ's today.
Is there a general election in the wind ?? ...0 -
Dave is really enjoying making jokes about Ed's kitchens.0
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listened to PMQs on radio.
Ed really came across as poorly.
Not that Dave came across much better mind.
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I note looking back at that that George Galloway won the Bradford by election at the very height of Labour's polling. I'm on George.TheScreamingEagles said:
George Osborne has been responsible for two out of the three major sustained polling shifts in the last decade. (one in favour of the Tories, one in favour of Labour)Polruan said:
Well, many Tory supporters of this parish do keep confidently reminding us that Osborne's budgets can be gamechangers.TheScreamingEagles said:
That's my fear.david_herdson said:
Shamelessly political budgets are usually disastrous for those delivering them; they usually fall apart within 48 hours and sometimes (see G Brown) within 48 minutes.TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first
I was looking at the polling throughout this parliament, and the 2012 budget was what really buggered the Tories.0 -
@BBCAllegra: Angus Robertson, SNP leader in Commons grinning + pulling at suit pocket in ref to Miliband / Salmond pocket poster as PM raises SNP-Lab rel0
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Surely raising the tax allowance more than expected is must be odds-on?
Labour will complain it's a political budget anyway, so what's to lose?0 -
Using that to fund abolition of IHT on primary residence would be a neat trick.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Second week in a row where they can't stop advertising the SNP as their greatest fear on both sides of the house.
Lovely.0 -
Interesting article, even if I don't agree with it all:
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/why-arent-the-tories-running-away-with-the-election/0 -
Afternoon all
Before this ludicrous pointless piece of political anachronism and theatre enthralls us all there was an interesting piece in yesterday's City AM from that well-known left-winger Ryan Bourne:
http://www.cityam.com/211701/osborne-likes-think-unthinkable-now-he-should-abolish-budget0 -
@ThescreamingEagles I have no sound so let me know if I'm going to need to call the bank manager when he mentions tax 500 times0
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That or extra council bands on high value homes. IHT is makework for lawyers and tax accountants. Quite sure you could get a revenue neutral thing going quite easily.Polruan said:
Using that to fund abolition of IHT on primary residence would be a neat trick.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
FPT
Many thanks for that. I entirely agree with the conclusion!david_herdson said:
The sort of products I was meaning were more like capital-protected bonds, which have a variable return based on the stock market but which guarantee the investment back (presumably the risk to the seller is sold on through market instruments somehow), such as these:Carnyx said:[snipped]
Yes, but it is difficult to handle the capital risk at that sort of age (70s and up) when people ought to be moving out of shares and into more liquid assets anyway, so inflation/interest remains an issue. And those products can be difficult to sell quickly, especially for an elderly person without his own computer. I've just had to help out an elderly relative who held a non-trivial chunk of his savings in an asset trust's shares in an ISA - it turned out to be impossible to sell them immediately; one had to instruct the ISA company in writing and then wait till the following Monday for them to actually do it; and they wouldn't accept any other instructions such as 'do not sell if below xp'. We were lucky that the market didn't tank in the week or so we were waiting.
http://www.moneysupermarket.com/savings/structured-products/
Now, I grant you that you're locking your capital up for a fairly serious period of time in many of these, which won't be right for everyone and even for those who it is right in part, they'll no doubt want to keep some savings more liquid, but the basic premise stands that they can form part of a balanced savings portfolio for those with money put aside.
Ultimately, the whole question of savings usually comes back to the point that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. People complaining about the lack of high returns need to recognise that they will only *ever* exist if they come with high risk because there is simply nothing that can reliably produce them otherwise.0 -
Danny must be enjoying his time on those green benches. Tic toc !0
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We should rename PMQ,S ..Milibashing...0
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This PMQs is interesting. There doesn't seem to be any issue that Labour can land punches on right now. The Tories have peaked at just the right time on all their deliverables - apart from polling results!0
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The youth unemployment stats really have changed massively under this Government. It makes it difficult for Labour MPs to gain any traction on unemployment - one of the areas they would once have expected to really be hammering the Government in the election campaign.0
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Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.0
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I've only listened half the time - but I can't think of a moment when Labour seemed on the front foot.Patrick said:
This PMQs is interesting. There doesn't seem to be any issue that Labour can land punches on right now. The Tories have peaked at just the right time on all their deliverables - apart from polling results!
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You could see a consultation on new council tax bands, but given the lead time of getting it done, it's hard to see even a chancellor with Osborne's taste for unfunded tax cuts claiming it could be quantified and implemented quickly enough to fund a cut in IHT before about 2020. Mechanically there are also issues as you'd have an increase in council revenues and a decrease in central government revenues, so would then have to adjust funding models to match the two up - not trivial. So CGT makes more sense.Pulpstar said:
That or extra council bands on high value homes. IHT is makework for lawyers and tax accountants. Quite sure you could get a revenue neutral thing going quite easily.Polruan said:
Using that to fund abolition of IHT on primary residence would be a neat trick.TheScreamingEagles said:
That said, a consultation on council tax revaluation would be a high-quality trap for Labour, as it'll almost certainly end up being seen as too difficult/unpopular and have to be scrapped - wouldn't look good for a Labour government to abandon a project designed to tax the rich.0 -
What's Watson asking a question on :innocent face: ?0
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Pulpstar said:
Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
I really can't see any circumstances that the Tories hold that seat. 6,500 LibDems for Labour to steal. Would need a massive UKIP bite into Labour's vote here.Pulpstar said:Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
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No mentions of tax in first minute
Its a disaster for Pulpstar0 -
Here we go !0
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"Britain is walking tall again" seems to be the tagline for this Budget.
Just to piss off John Bercow...0 -
Marathon not a sprint though :Obigjohnowls said:No mentions of tax in first minute
Its a disaster for Pulpstar0 -
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from austerity to prosperity....0
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LOLMarqueeMark said:
"Britain is walking tall again" seems to be the tagline for this Budget.
Just to piss off John Bercow...0 -
What a racket - who is in the chair ? Let the chap speak .
"Northern Powerhouse" - ching.0 -
vote Labour and ruin it!!SimonStClare said:0 -
Was that an "Order, order" ?0
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choose life...0
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It is almost never worth purchasing a structured "capital protected" product from a bank or financial adviser. It is much better rolling your own by investing in a regular bank fixed term bond and adding on a index tracker on the side - that way you capture any and all rise in the market rather than being guillotined by the terms of a capital-protected product.Carnyx said:
FPT
Many thanks for that. I entirely agree with the conclusion!david_herdson said:
The sort of products I was meaning were more like capital-protected bonds, which have a variable return based on the stock market but which guarantee the investment back (presumably the risk to the seller is sold on through market instruments somehow), such as these:Carnyx said:[snipped]
Yes, but it is difficult to handle the capital risk at that sort of age (70s and up) when people ought to be moving out of shares and into more liquid assets anyway, so inflation/interest remains an issue. And those products can be difficult to sell quickly, especially for an elderly person without his own computer. I've just had to help out an elderly relative who held a non-trivial chunk of his savings in an asset trust's shares in an ISA - it turned out to be impossible to sell them immediately; one had to instruct the ISA company in writing and then wait till the following Monday for them to actually do it; and they wouldn't accept any other instructions such as 'do not sell if below xp'. We were lucky that the market didn't tank in the week or so we were waiting.
http://www.moneysupermarket.com/savings/structured-products/
Now, I grant you that you're locking your capital up for a fairly serious period of time in many of these, which won't be right for everyone and even for those who it is right in part, they'll no doubt want to keep some savings more liquid, but the basic premise stands that they can form part of a balanced savings portfolio for those with money put aside.
Ultimately, the whole question of savings usually comes back to the point that if it looks too good to be true, it probably is. People complaining about the lack of high returns need to recognise that they will only *ever* exist if they come with high risk because there is simply nothing that can reliably produce them otherwise.0 -
I think you need to choose your start and end dates carefully for that to work. Spain's employment has risen by 1.2m in the last two years for example.Plato said:Xlibris1 @Xlibris1
UK has seen the largest rise in employment of any G7 country; more young people have got into work than rest of the EU put together0 -
Still awaiting ICM data tables, but the part-ELBOW for polls so far this week excluding ICM puts Labour 0.8% ahead, compared with "0.0% growth" for week-ending 15th March!0
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@SimonStClare
"If so, that is an astonishing statistic."
For a given definition of "employment" it probably has some validity.
The definition, and the differences, are part of the Tories problem.
But few on here are capable of noticing.0 -
When is the Budget being announced?0
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Strange the ST didn't poll support for inheritance tax cuts.0
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I'm feeling Leftie Pain right now. Lots of it.Smarmeron said:
@SimonStClare
"If so, that is an astonishing statistic."
For a given definition of "employment" it probably has some validity.
The definition, and the differences, are part of the Tories problem.
But few on here are capable of noticing.0 -
Spain isn't in the G7!rcs1000 said:
I think you need to choose your start and end dates carefully for that to work. Spain's employment has risen by 1.2m in the last two years for example.Plato said:Xlibris1 @Xlibris1
UK has seen the largest rise in employment of any G7 country; more young people have got into work than rest of the EU put together0 -
Still think whilst this is spiky rhetoric the budget is going to be a bit dull.0
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Peak waffle ?Sunil_Prasannan said:When is the Budget being announced?
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Well spotted!Richard_Nabavi said:
Spain isn't in the G7!rcs1000 said:
I think you need to choose your start and end dates carefully for that to work. Spain's employment has risen by 1.2m in the last two years for example.Plato said:Xlibris1 @Xlibris1
UK has seen the largest rise in employment of any G7 country; more young people have got into work than rest of the EU put together0 -
OoohPulpstar said:Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
I'm hoping to buy a factory there next month. I shall instruct the workforce accordingly :-)0 -
What was that 1975 statistic??0
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YORKSHIRE!0
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You're right: I was conflating the first half of the claim with the second.Richard_Nabavi said:
Spain isn't in the G7!rcs1000 said:
I think you need to choose your start and end dates carefully for that to work. Spain's employment has risen by 1.2m in the last two years for example.Plato said:Xlibris1 @Xlibris1
UK has seen the largest rise in employment of any G7 country; more young people have got into work than rest of the EU put together
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being answered by GO just nowSmarmeron said:@SimonStClare
"If so, that is an astonishing statistic."
For a given definition of "employment" it probably has some validity.
The definition, and the differences, are part of the Tories problem.
But few on here are capable of noticing.
Yorkshire rules apparently0 -
More than the WHOLE OF FRANCE just in Yorkshire. Blimey.DaemonBarber said:
being answered by GO just nowSmarmeron said:@SimonStClare
"If so, that is an astonishing statistic."
For a given definition of "employment" it probably has some validity.
The definition, and the differences, are part of the Tories problem.
But few on here are capable of noticing.
Yorkshire rules apparently0 -
Well a former MP for Wolverhampton South West ended up sitting as an MP for the Ulster Unionists.Alanbrooke said:
OoohPulpstar said:Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
I'm hoping to buy a factory there next month. I shall instruct the workforce accordingly :-)
Just saying.0 -
I'm telling you now, the election will be decided by Pudsey.TheScreamingEagles said:YORKSHIRE!
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What, this little chap?Pulpstar said:
I'm telling you now, the election will be decided by Pudsey.TheScreamingEagles said:YORKSHIRE!
http://www.bbcchildreninneedshop.co.uk/pudsey-bear.html
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I shall be campaigning in a slew of West Yorkshire seats.Pulpstar said:
I'm telling you now, the election will be decided by Pudsey.TheScreamingEagles said:YORKSHIRE!
Mark my words, a world of pain awaits Labour in West Yorkshire.0 -
More so than the last Labour one with all its traps ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first0 -
Now you've jinxed the tread.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well a former MP for Wolverhampton South West ended up sitting as an MP for the Ulster Unionists.Alanbrooke said:
OoohPulpstar said:Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
I'm hoping to buy a factory there next month. I shall instruct the workforce accordingly :-)
Just saying.
Isam will be posting Enoch Powell for the next 4 hours, thereby undermining my 24hr sponsored sledgeathon on Osborne.0 -
Oliver Cooper @OliverCooper
80% of jobs created since 2010 have been full-time and just 20% part-time. Under Labour, 46% of net new jobs were part-time. #Budget20150 -
I'm looking at http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5077288/the-2015-budget can't quite believe they are all "0" so far, especially "minutes"0
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ooh, that's gotta hurt...Floater said:
More so than the last Labour one with all its traps ?TheScreamingEagles said:I'm expecting the post shamelessly political budget of all time.
Oh and first0 -
No access to TV right now!Pulpstar said:
Peak waffle ?Sunil_Prasannan said:When is the Budget being announced?
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Every metric really is moving in George's favour....0
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As someone once said "Imagine my shock, that someone obsessed with race and religion moved to Northern Ireland to be happy"Alanbrooke said:
Now you've jinxed the tread.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well a former MP for Wolverhampton South West ended up sitting as an MP for the Ulster Unionists.Alanbrooke said:
OoohPulpstar said:Wolverhampton SW is a very very vulnerable marginal iirc.
I'm hoping to buy a factory there next month. I shall instruct the workforce accordingly :-)
Just saying.
Isam will be posting Enoch Powell for the next 4 hours, thereby undermining my 24hr sponsored sledgeathon on Osborne.0 -
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-31874987Sunil_Prasannan said:
No access to TV right now!Pulpstar said:
Peak waffle ?Sunil_Prasannan said:When is the Budget being announced?
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Growth forecasts aren't stellar.0
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Steve Fisher retweeted
Fraser Nelson @FraserNelson 2m2 minutes ago
Growth was good last year, will be okay in years to come. But overall? The slowest recovery in history #Budget2015
Prof Fisher says slowest recovery in history0 -
Told you - dullsville.0
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Didn't realise it was right after PMQs, thanks!DecrepitJohnL said:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/business-31874987Sunil_Prasannan said:
No access to TV right now!Pulpstar said:
Peak waffle ?Sunil_Prasannan said:When is the Budget being announced?
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Every metric George has chosen to highlight is moving in George's favour....MarqueeMark said:Every metric really is moving in George's favour....
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A new unionist pound coin. Nice, but unexpected!0
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Should have been based on the Battle of WaterlooCasino_Royale said:A new unionist pound coin. Nice, but unexpected!
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Sounds like a ploy to up the SNP vote to meTheScreamingEagles said:
Should have been based on the Battle of WaterlooCasino_Royale said:A new unionist pound coin. Nice, but unexpected!
OH WAIT0 -
National Debt was soaring in 2010
Now it has .......
Gone up significantly0 -
From Previous Thread (with apologies);-
Well said. The idea that the Left has a monopoly over concern for the disadvantaged is nonsense on stilts and not borne out by evidence from history.Charles said:
There is nothing left wing about "concern for the disadvantaged"Roger said:After the last slew of polls I'm getting the distinct impression that there are just too many who share the left wing values of concern for the disadvantaged for the Tories to win however competently they run the economy.
I'm a Tory & take some fairly practical steps to help in the limited way that I can.
The difference it seems to me is that the Left (or some of them) seem to think that the only way to respond to human suffering is by state intervention . And (a) that's simply not true; and (b) can rapidly lead to a belief in a large state as a value in itself irrespective of whether it achieves its intended purpose. It seems to me that that is the cul de sac into which the Left has got itself. It sees a large powerful state as an end in itself. The equivalent on the right is to want a small state almost regardless of what the effects might be.Polruan said:
Charles, I don't think the point here is about individual actions and I hope that it would be an isolated view on the left that anyone more right wing is by definition a selfish bastard (though I suppose in this forum it's likely the extremes are over-represented, meaning that there could be more lefties holding that extreme view and more of the right who actually are selfish bastards).Charles said:
There is nothing left wing about "concern for the disadvantaged"Roger said:After the last slew of polls I'm getting the distinct impression that there are just too many who share the left wing values of concern for the disadvantaged for the Tories to win however competently they run the economy.
I'm a Tory & take some fairly practical steps to help in the limited way that I can.
It's more that left-wing politics can be characterised as responding to human suffering by trying to intervene directly and immediately to relieve it, whereas right-wing responses often focus more on "incentivising" those who are suffering to take steps themselves to address the problem, and managing the overall economy in a way that is intended to benefit all, including the disadvantaged, in the longer term.
....
Surely the better view is to have a state do those things which cannot be effectively done by people either indiviidually or collectively and do them really well, rather than do lots of things not very well or badly?
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Also - a thank you to Fat Steve for organising the PB drinks last night. A nice venue and nice to chat with some PB'ers I had not met and see again others.0
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Will George commend the budget to the house though ?
That's the big unanswered question.
Perhaps he'll have second thoughts.0 -
A surplus for first time in 18yrs?0
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Spending crashing to the days of penury and squalor of 2000.
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