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SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TNS poll has the Tories ahead whilst their appears to be progress on the debates

Latest @TNS_UK poll out

Con 33 (+5) Lab 32 (-3) LD 7 (+1) UKIP 17 (-1) Greens 4 (-3)

http://t.co/6OZfbbWkwQ

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited March 2015
    Game, set and match for Cam?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    edited March 2015
    FPT

    So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.

    Now the rest are left squealing.

    Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @GIN1138
    You think?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,577
    Where is the win for Clegg in this?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,678
    Third!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,577
    edited March 2015
    Scott_P said:

    FPT

    So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.

    Now the rest are left squealing.

    Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?

    Not quite. He didn't want it during the actual election period. But that was probably all part of the bluffing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Smarmeron said:

    @GIN1138
    You think?

    Other than sevensome being April 2nd rather than March 26th, looks like Cam has got everything he wanted...

    Assuming this is the final word on the matter of course.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    "their"?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Scott_P said:

    FPT

    So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.

    Now the rest are left squealing.

    Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?

    Cameron: I'll be in the same studio as Weak Ed but I refuse to talk to him on camera
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Debates

    Clue is in the Title
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Scott_P
    So Scott, what has actually been agreed?
    Dave can take part in the seven way, then what?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    antifrank said:

    "their"?

    Auto-correct (but corrected now)

    I shall exile myself to conhome for a week as penance.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    rottenborough said:

    Not quite. He didn't want it during the actual election period. But that was probably all part of the bluffing.

    Well, he didn't want the debates to distract from the campaign, which of course they couldn't do if they happened before, but Easter weekend nobody is going to be thinking campaign anyway.

    Least worst option in that respect.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    edited March 2015
    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    FPT

    So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.

    Now the rest are left squealing.

    Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?

    Cameron: I'll be in the same studio as Weak Ed but I refuse to talk to him on camera
    No different than the arrangement for the 2005 election;

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4492727.stm

    Seemed to work OK that time...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    bigjohnowls said:

    Debates

    Clue is in the Title

    All the leaders are going to mass debate together.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    GIN1138 said:

    Freggles said:

    Scott_P said:

    FPT

    So the broadcasters came to Cameron with an offer of everything he wanted, he accepted it, and announced it.

    Now the rest are left squealing.

    Lucky for them Dave isn't any good at this negotiation lark, eh?

    Cameron: I'll be in the same studio as Weak Ed but I refuse to talk to him on camera
    No different than the arrangement for the 2005 election;

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/vote_2005/frontpage/4492727.stm

    Seemed to work OK that time...
    Decent format but not a debate. Cluck cluck
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    rottenborough said:

    Where is the win for Clegg in this?

    Included in the final leaders debate
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    More importantly what does this mean for debate betting?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Big_G_NorthWales
    "Nick" I agree with Dave should be worth a snigger, either that, or with nothing to lose he will kick him in the nutz.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Fair play to Cameron if this final reported set up is true, he'll have done well out of this.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    MaxPB said:

    More importantly what does this mean for debate betting?

    The terms were that Dave and Ed has to appear in at least one debate together.

    So if you backed there would be debate(s) then you should be a winner.

    If you, like me, backed there would be no debates, well we're losers.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,577
    MaxPB said:

    More importantly what does this mean for debate betting?

    Over to you Ed M...
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    How has a weighting (rather than a reallocation) made so much difference to the TNS figures? How can you conduct a survey that accidentally but consistently over-targets non-Tory 2014 voters?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    A Labour source told the BBC there had been no formal proposal for a new TV election format and they had accepted the three debates proposal made last month.

    "Based on the broadcasters' proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th," a spokesman said.

    "If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled. David Cameron is still running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband."

    The Liberal Democrats said it was "welcome news" that the Conservatives had "finally agreed" to take part in "at least" one debate.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,492
    Grandiose said:

    How has a weighting (rather than a reallocation) made so much difference to the TNS figures? How can you conduct a survey that accidentally but consistently over-targets non-Tory 2014 voters?

    In 2014, the Tories finished third, with less than 30% of the vote, back in 2010 they came first with around 37% of the vote.

    So previously TNS were down weighthing the Tories and boosting Lab and UKIP
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    Smarmeron said:

    A Labour source told the BBC there had been no formal proposal for a new TV election format and they had accepted the three debates proposal made last month.

    "Based on the broadcasters' proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th," a spokesman said.

    "If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled. David Cameron is still running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband."

    The Liberal Democrats said it was "welcome news" that the Conservatives had "finally agreed" to take part in "at least" one debate.

    UKIP also say they've had no new offer.
    I will be disappointed if Dave isn't empty chaired to be honest
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    edited March 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    More importantly what does this mean for debate betting?

    The terms were that Dave and Ed has to appear in at least one debate together.

    So if you backed there would be debate(s) then you should be a winner.

    If you, like me, backed there would be no debates, well we're losers.
    :burnsexcellent:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    a) debate - definition, meaning, audio pronunciation, synonyms and more. What is debate? (a) serious discussion of a subject in which many people take part.

    b) interview A formal meeting in person, especially one arranged for the assessment of the qualifications of an applicant.

    c) Head to Head definition Involving two parties confronting each other.

    Simple really Cowardly Cameron is running scared of 3*a)

    Cowardly Cameron wants b) despite saying originally he wanted 3*a) including one c)

    Cowardly Cameron says Ed is weak and Lab policies are rubbish but still wants to avoid c) as he is a chicken.

    Simples
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Freggles
    That was never on the cards, though it would be fairly obvious he wasn't there.
    The phrase "have signed up for" could prove awkward for Dave as the election progresses, depending if the others had signed contracts, other than them using it as a figure of speech.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,966
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Where is the win for Clegg in this?

    Included in the final leaders debate
    As are all 7 parties if cowardly Cameron has anything to do with it. (one debate Dave)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Top Gear cleared over Pike's Peak pun

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-31922773

    How can it take over a year to come to decision on this?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    Refreshing to see leftists on here moan at how unfair it all is. They don't like it up em.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Freggles said:

    Smarmeron said:

    A Labour source told the BBC there had been no formal proposal for a new TV election format and they had accepted the three debates proposal made last month.

    "Based on the broadcasters' proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th," a spokesman said.

    "If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled. David Cameron is still running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband."

    The Liberal Democrats said it was "welcome news" that the Conservatives had "finally agreed" to take part in "at least" one debate.

    UKIP also say they've had no new offer.
    I will be disappointed if Dave isn't empty chaired to be honest
    You are most certainly in for a disappointment as this is never going to happen.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    edited March 2015
    Somebodies telling porkies about the debates....

    Prime Minister has said he was made formal offer as PM on Saturday. James Harding can confirm or deny.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @bigjohnowls
    No John. we are missing the strategic "win" for Dave, last week he was definitely not doing the debates, this week he is.
    It shows his strength and resolve.
    (like cast iron it is)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrancisUrquhart
    Yes, someone is.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Freggles said:

    Smarmeron said:

    A Labour source told the BBC there had been no formal proposal for a new TV election format and they had accepted the three debates proposal made last month.

    "Based on the broadcasters' proposals we have accepted and plan to attend all three debates on April 2nd, 16th and the 30th," a spokesman said.

    "If the Tories have confirmed they are to attend one of these debates then that is progress. It is one down, two to go. But no-one should be fooled. David Cameron is still running scared of a head-to-head televised debate with Ed Miliband."

    The Liberal Democrats said it was "welcome news" that the Conservatives had "finally agreed" to take part in "at least" one debate.

    UKIP also say they've had no new offer.
    I will be disappointed if Dave isn't empty chaired to be honest
    I think that's how this is going to end up. The Conservatives have backed themselves into a corner, and will either have to be empty chaired or do a big u-turn. They are playing the public for fools when they come out with lines like the one tweeted by David Jack above. It's a play that simply is not sustainable.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    Is anyone here yet?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Can't fault Dave's chutzpah: “The other parties have got to stop running away from this, and accept the deal"

    Wow. That is pretty ballsy of him. No one was run as hard or as much as him, and everyone knows that. That he might have managed to get a good deal for himself doesn't change that, but again, fair play to him for seeing the funny side, if that comment is anything to go by,
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    The country where you can choose your tax rate

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31907670

    Just a LOL read...including...

    ''Now then.'' The tax boss asks Mr Kante to brief him about my case. Both men pore over a calculator and come up with a figure of 236,160 francs ($380, £260).

    ''Hmm, I would like to have seen a rounder figure,'' says Mr Kantako eventually. ''And the pound is strong - I think we would like 300,000 francs ($485, £327) from you.'' He gives me the same open look as you get when buying almost anything in Mali. As much as to say: "That's my offer what's yours?"

    ''Oh, and we'll want that in cash,'' he says, "but you will be given a receipt."
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    MaxPB said:

    Is anyone here yet?

    Sure you are in the right pub :-)
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "Earlier this month Mr Cameron rejected taking part in a head-to-head with Labour's Ed Miliband and said his "final offer" was to participate in a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP and Plaid Cymru before the end of March."
    Is his new offer the final final one?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    bigjohnowls said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    rottenborough said:

    Where is the win for Clegg in this?

    Included in the final leaders debate
    As are all 7 parties if cowardly Cameron has anything to do with it. (one debate Dave)
    No - there will be a three way final programme to include David Cameron, Ed Miliband AND Nick Clegg who has been reported as delighted with the new format
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,584
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Is anyone here yet?

    Sure you are in the right pub :-)
    Shooting star Liverpool street?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    MaxPB said:

    Is anyone here yet?

    I've decided to brave the PB hordes (or horde).

  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Smarmeron said:

    "Earlier this month Mr Cameron rejected taking part in a head-to-head with Labour's Ed Miliband and said his "final offer" was to participate in a seven-way debate with the leaders of Labour, the Lib Dems, UKIP, the Green Party, the SNP and Plaid Cymru before the end of March."
    Is his new offer the final final one?

    The only difference is the date.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Big_G_NorthWales
    Of course, some might reasonably ask why the leader of a "minor" party should get star billing?
    And indeed, might complain very loudly.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Eastwinger
    Right.......but he was adamant last week? why the change of heart do you think?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Shooting star Liverpool street?

    Nothing worse than being Mr no mates until everybody decides to arrive fashionably late
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Smarmeron said:

    @Eastwinger
    Right.......but he was adamant last week? why the change of heart do you think?

    I take it you never negotiation deals with anybody then...The change in date is here nor there, it is basically a few days different.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @taffys
    The style thing is to make it look like you are in someone else's company, then reluctantly leave that group to join the newcomers.
    ( and hope no one notices the puzzled looks on the faces of the crowd you are leaving when you wish them farewell)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    MaxPB said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    MaxPB said:

    Is anyone here yet?

    Sure you are in the right pub :-)
    Shooting star Liverpool street?
    Isn't it the Seven Stars? ;-)

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrancisUrquhart
    It was a few days last week as well.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Cyclefree said:

    MaxPB said:

    Is anyone here yet?

    I've decided to brave the PB hordes (or horde).

    Good for you Ms Cyclefree, I'm sure you'll be made most welcome. - word of advice, don't accept a lift home from JohnO :)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelegraphNews: Leaders' debate: Nigel Farage accuses the broadcasters of "dancing to David Cameron's tune" http://t.co/rHOEKBpqf2 http://t.co/LW0g2Rz9f8

    Nige claiming Dave has managed to negotiate something in his favour...

    Gone a bit off message then
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Smarmeron said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales
    Of course, some might reasonably ask why the leader of a "minor" party should get star billing?
    And indeed, might complain very loudly.</blockquote

    It seems David Cameron and Nick Clegg have agreed the final programme but Ed Miliband is prevaricating which is more of a problem for him. The debates and their format as now proposed are very different and it will be interesting to see if any party decides to mount a legal challenge but it wont be the conservatives or lib dems

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,752
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    MaxPB said:

    More importantly what does this mean for debate betting?

    The terms were that Dave and Ed has to appear in at least one debate together.

    So if you backed there would be debate(s) then you should be a winner.

    If you, like me, backed there would be no debates, well we're losers.
    Hang on to those betting slips. Still plenty of time for UKIP's lawyers to scupper it.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Smarmeron said:

    @bigjohnowls
    No John. we are missing the strategic "win" for Dave, last week he was definitely not doing the debates, this week he is.
    It shows his strength and resolve.
    (like cast iron it is)

    No. He was always doing a debate, singular. He won. Deal with it.

    TNS by the way.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    There is an episode of Yes minister where Jim Hacker wants to do something Sir Humphrey doesn't want him to.

    So Hacker announces it to the press.... Sir Humphrey couldn't contradict him.

    Cameron announces on TV that he has agreed to the new debate format formally presented by the broadcasters at the weekend.

    Now Ed and the broadcasters can either agree they have been agreed, or run away crying.

    Right now Ed is looking for his hanky...

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "The only proposal that we are aware of from the broadcasters was for 3 debates, 2 of which UKIP were invited to..."

    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "...We intend to turn up for those two debates."
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Big_G_NorthWales
    For a start, Nick has shot the Lib Dems in the foot if he comes across as toadying to Dave?
    As for the rest of them, the can say they agreed to the previous format and Dave said no, so they don't have to accommodate his change of mind.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Scott_P said:

    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "The only proposal that we are aware of from the broadcasters was for 3 debates, 2 of which UKIP were invited to..."

    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "...We intend to turn up for those two debates."

    That reminds me of UKIP carnival of colour during the Euros :-)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,941
    Philip Johnstone on how an Osborne giveaway budget is unlikely to have much impact. Contrary to received wisdom the Lamont budget of 1992 or the Jenkins budgets of 1970 had little impact with the Tories on 38-40% from 1990 until 3 months before polling day and Labour trailing from 1967 until Spring 1http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/11475648/Budget-memo-to-George-Osborne-Giveaways-dont-always-work.html970
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ishmael_X
    What about TNS? Have I missed something important?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    SNP also not happy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Sam, Justine, Miriam..please please please please...just don't....whatever the spin doctors say...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31917478
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "The only proposal that we are aware of from the broadcasters was for 3 debates, 2 of which UKIP were invited to..."

    @ChrisMasonBBC: UKIP: "...We intend to turn up for those two debates."

    That reminds me of UKIP carnival of colour during the Euros :-)
    Winston McKenzie did a brilliant job - he'll go far in UKIP...!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Sam, Justine, Miriam..please please please please...just don't....whatever the spin doctors say...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31917478

    Seconded.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Smarmeron said:

    @Big_G_NorthWales
    For a start, Nick has shot the Lib Dems in the foot if he comes across as toadying to Dave?
    As for the rest of them, the can say they agreed to the previous format and Dave said no, so they don't have to accommodate his change of mind.

    And then there was one debate but David Cameron and Nick Clegg can say they accepted the new broadcast proposals leaving the rest with the problem - that's politics
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    Con lead with TNS isn't a result I expected to see.

    I can't make tonight's gathering, and hope you all have a good time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Scott_P said:

    SNP also not happy.

    As far as I can tell they only have two modes in any case, insofar as official responses go - 'not happy' and 'smugly satisfied'.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Big_G_NorthWales
    Politics yes Jim, but not as we know it.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F

    "It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros"
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The TNS is a real turn up for the books.

    Their Wisdom index has Tory largest party and the sample suggests that around a quarter of under 35's don't know if they are registered to vote. London is the worst region for that.

    The biggest VI saying they aren't registered are Labour, seven times as many as the Tories.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    (Just For Fun) Tonight's YouGov prediction:

    Con Lead 3%
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @chestnut
    Yes, that was a smart move, along with the above inflation increase in election spend.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
    So it sounds like little has changed. The broadcasters are still planning three debates, Cameron has agreed to the first one, and will have to decide whether he will turn up or not for the second and third.

    It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited March 2015
    chestnut said:

    The TNS is a real turn up for the books.

    Their Wisdom index has Tory largest party and the sample suggests that around a quarter of under 35's don't know if they are registered to vote. London is the worst region for that.

    The biggest VI saying they aren't registered are Labour, seven times as many as the Tories.

    But have those people not registered then been excluding from the headline voting intention figures?

    Surely they should be. Or at least the vast majority of them - say 80% - if we assume 20% do subsequently register.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    That looks good for Cameron.

    Under the initial proposal there was NO programme on 26 March.

    Whereas now they have specifically referred to 26 March.

    Which means, by definition, they have now confirmed that they have changed their original proposal.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @MikeL
    Six days time? I can foresee some tooth sucking and diary searching.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,451
    Smarmeron said:

    @Sean_F

    "It appears as though TNS big move from to CON one might be partly due to methodology change. No mention now weighting back to 2014 Euros"

    Or simply reversion to the mean, which we've seen with Populus, ICM, and Ashcroft this week.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,809
    Smarmeron said:

    @MikeL
    Six days time? I can foresee some tooth sucking and diary searching.

    Nine days time - Thursday next week.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    JEO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
    So it sounds like little has changed. The broadcasters are still planning three debates, Cameron has agreed to the first one, and will have to decide whether he will turn up or not for the second and third.

    It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
    The debate offer has changed to 7 way debate on 2nd April agreed by David Cameron, a Challenger debate with SNP - UKIP - Greens and Plaid on the 16th April and a three way programme with David Cameron, Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg on the 30th April. David Cameron and Nick Clegg are reported to have agreed to this new offer from the broadcasters
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Sean_F
    Whatever....A change in methodology usually makes previous polls bad for comparison.
    But you might wish to differ.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Well it sounds like Cameron and Clegg have shafted everybody else and that the TV stations have crawled up Dave's backside (when toenails was on sick leave as well).

    Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    JEO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
    So it sounds like little has changed. The broadcasters are still planning three debates, Cameron has agreed to the first one, and will have to decide whether he will turn up or not for the second and third.

    It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
    The proposals to which Cam has agreed for April 16th and 30th are not debates.

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Eastwinger
    And Cam gets to dictate terms to the lesser mortals?
    That is going to look good for a Prime Minister who is rumoured to be aloof and out of touch.
  • DoubleCarpetDoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    Israel links - polls close 8pm UK

    A few links which may be useful:

    http://www.iba.org.il/liveProgram.aspx?scode=1868217 (TV, Hebrew)

    http://www.mako.co.il/mako-vod-live-tv/VOD-efacf0702f3fd31006.htm (TV, Hebrew)

    http://www.i24news.tv/en/tv/livehome (TV, English)

    http://bechirot.gov.il/election/English/pages/default.aspx (Official results, currently crashing)

    http://www.haaretz.com/news/israel-election-2015/1.647304 (Liveblog)

    http://www.jpost.com/Israel-Elections/Election-Live-Blog-Follow-the-latest-updates-394059 (Liveblog)

    http://knessetjeremy.com/2015/03/17/2015-knesset-jeremy-election-phase-2-prediction-analysis/ (Knesset Jeremy on what will happen after voting closes, and forming a new government)

    Thanks

    DC
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,595
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Well it sounds like Cameron and Clegg have shafted everybody else and that the TV stations have crawled up Dave's backside (when toenails was on sick leave as well).

    Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system

    The danger for labour is that if they attempt to block the new proposals it will be seen as a big win for David Cameron
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Smarmeron said:

    @Eastwinger
    And Cam gets to dictate terms to the lesser mortals?
    That is going to look good for a Prime Minister who is rumoured to be aloof and out of touch.

    Seems unlikely to have that much impact IMO. All sides have complained about things and tried to get the best format for themselves, and Cameron has whinged and changed his demands the most. That specifically may have damaged him a bit, but if he managed to get his way, then it just means he played the game the best is all, and I don't see how it makes him look any worse. If anything if he gets his way it makes his earlier tantrums about the matter retroactively seem more justified than they were.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    Smarmeron said:

    @Eastwinger
    And Cam gets to dictate terms to the lesser mortals?
    That is going to look good for a Prime Minister who is rumoured to be aloof and out of touch.

    Get real, the broadcasters aren't stupid. They know that they don't have much of a program without the PM being included. They obviously have to compromise to get any kind of a show for the viewers.

    I can understand why Labour aren't happy about it but they are not the ones holding the cards.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,027
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Well it sounds like Cameron and Clegg have shafted everybody else and that the TV stations have crawled up Dave's backside (when toenails was on sick leave as well).

    Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system

    The danger for labour is that if they attempt to block the new proposals it will be seen as a big win for David Cameron
    SNP, UKIP and Adam Boulton unhappy at the new proposals too.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Big_G_NorthWales
    Nope, no one else will decide before next week, and then with one thing and another, it might cause a conflict with a prior arrangement.
    ("prior" as in "maximum convenience")
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Eastwinger said:

    JEO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
    So it sounds like little has changed. The broadcasters are still planning three debates, Cameron has agreed to the first one, and will have to decide whether he will turn up or not for the second and third.

    It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
    The proposals to which Cam has agreed for April 16th and 30th are not debates.

    Yes, it seems like Cameron has agreed to attend the first debate, and in addition two other events, but has not agreed to the second and third debates. I suspect the second and third debates will still go ahead without him. So we may well get a separate event with Cameron preceding a debate with everyone else on the 16th and the 30th.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Well it sounds like Cameron and Clegg have shafted everybody else and that the TV stations have crawled up Dave's backside (when toenails was on sick leave as well).

    Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system

    The danger for labour is that if they attempt to block the new proposals it will be seen as a big win for David Cameron
    Well i don't expect them to be blocked but frankly its a disgrace. All the TV stations should be severely censured for this. TV ststions must not be allowed to hijack election campaigns again!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    JEO said:

    Eastwinger said:

    JEO said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: At last! Broadcasters statement: 'We welcome David Cameron’s willingness to participate in the first TV debate on April 2nd...'

    @paulwaugh: But add: "The broadcasters are continuing to work with all political parties on progs scheduled for March 26, April 16 and April 30"

    They offered it to Cameron, who agreed it and announced it.

    I better get that empty chair with Cameron written in big letters on the front back out of the garage.
    So it sounds like little has changed. The broadcasters are still planning three debates, Cameron has agreed to the first one, and will have to decide whether he will turn up or not for the second and third.

    It seems like the second one can just go ahead with the other six parties. The third debate is more questionable, as the broadcasters will be unable to go ahead with just Miliband. The most likely outcome is the broadcasters extending an invite to Clegg and Farage for that debate. That will be very dangerous for David Cameron, as a Clegg, Farage and Miliband final debate may well be seen as the main event.
    The proposals to which Cam has agreed for April 16th and 30th are not debates.

    Yes, it seems like Cameron has agreed to attend the first debate, and in addition two other events, but has not agreed to the second and third debates. I suspect the second and third debates will still go ahead without him. So we may well get a separate event with Cameron preceding a debate with everyone else on the 16th and the 30th.
    I think we can be confident that the 2nd and 3rd debates under the original format won't happen.

  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Eastwinger said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Eastwinger
    And Cam gets to dictate terms to the lesser mortals?
    That is going to look good for a Prime Minister who is rumoured to be aloof and out of touch.

    Get real, the broadcasters aren't stupid. They know that they don't have much of a program without the PM being included. They obviously have to compromise to get any kind of a show for the viewers.

    I can understand why Labour aren't happy about it but they are not the ones holding the cards.

    Our elections aint that scumbag Cameron's toy!
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    Well it sounds like Cameron and Clegg have shafted everybody else and that the TV stations have crawled up Dave's backside (when toenails was on sick leave as well).

    Frankly the whole affair has become so sordid now I doubt I will bother with any of it and i suspect neither will most voters. I have no interest in watching dumb & dumber do their solo acts or the minority sects spend however long talking nonsense about the other parties and making deranged assertions about what will never happen and 7 was always too many to have any sensible sort of debate in 2 hours. I'll be boycotting the lot and hope that in future Ofcom and the Electoral Commission are allowed to step in and take control of this because all this is doing is bringing further disrepute upon our electoral system

    The danger for labour is that if they attempt to block the new proposals it will be seen as a big win for David Cameron
    Well i don't expect them to be blocked but frankly its a disgrace. All the TV stations should be severely censured for this. TV ststions must not be allowed to hijack election campaigns again!
    The TV stations should make an announcement on plans for debates in future elections now, including the precise criteria for inclusion in each one. If candidates choose not to turn up, they don't turn up. That will prevent one party from messing the whole thing about so much in future.
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