politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Bas
Comments
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A Tory clean sweep of the borders makes the partition of Scotland "inevitable".Pulpstar said:
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !Theuniondivvie said:
Scottish Tory surges?Richard_Nabavi said:
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?Pulpstar said:
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
Oh, I see what you mean.
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.
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Epic Fail as the kids like to say,
Anti-capitalist protesters occupy wrong building
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/03/anti-capitalist-protesters-occupy-wrong-building/0 -
At the moment I think that there are probably better chances of the Tories having 3 than the Lib Dems.Theuniondivvie said:Hell, I'm beginning to fear for the SNP's GE chances if Daleodamus is predicting great things.
'I've Revised My General Election Predictions For Scotland & It Means a Minority Government Looms Ever More Likely
The detailed seat breakdown is listed below but this is how I now predict the parties will end up on May 7th in Scotland…
SNP 42
Labour 11
LibDem 3
Conservative 3'
http://tinyurl.com/k4d4tgw
But neither are likely.0 -
@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
Not impossible, but I'd see that as the ceiling until the whole set up changes, i.e. independent Scottish Tory & Labour parties. Ruth Davidson has the makings but she's only edging them past their 2010 figures. Imagine where they'd be if they'd chosen a duffer.Pulpstar said:
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !Theuniondivvie said:
Scottish Tory surges?Richard_Nabavi said:
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?Pulpstar said:
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
Oh, I see what you mean.
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.0 -
I don't know - just going on rumour and hearsay. Jones would still be bad, but not quite as gut-wrenchingly terrible as Strummer.SouthamObserver said:
Mick Jones, isn't it?ThomasNashe said:
I think the most troubling fact about Shapps with which lefties like me have to contend is that he's supposedly a cousin of the late, great Joe Strummer.JohnLilburne said:
Hmm, you do know he's Jewish? Would you refer to his "ridiculous name" if he was called Singh or Hussein?tyson said:First, Grant Shapps a throwback to the Tory 1980's loadsamoney Harry Enfield if ever there was one. Could the Tories not have found a woman or an safe pair of hands for this role, instead of someone as grating as Shapps with his ridiculous name?
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I think I would say wait and see what the result is...maybe Miliband shouldn't be so negative on chances of Labour getting the most seats :-)Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
So Confidence & Supply?
Miliband Rules Out SNP Ministers Coalition Deal
The Labour leader may have decided against Scottish [I THINK THEY MEANT SNP] ministers in his cabinet but the parties could still do a deal.
http://news.sky.com/story/1446026/miliband-rules-out-snp-ministers-coalition-deal0 -
Interesting that Dale has Conservatives taking West Aberdeen and Kincardine but not Dumfries and Galloway,
My betting position doesn't reflect this so I hope if it is to be three it is the other way round.0 -
I seem to recall people saying the BBC has a left wing bias and worldview -it really is hard to argue with that - especially when their own staff admit it.SouthamObserver said:
The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.MaxPB said:
You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.SouthamObserver said:I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.
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Not at all, just surprised at your inconsistencyTheScreamingEagles said:
As you told Pong, do you want a pat on the back?isam said:
UKIP were 7/2 thenTheScreamingEagles said:
No there were other Kippers defending him and trying to pass it off as a joke.isam said:
So one kipper rather than "some of the kippers"TheScreamingEagles said:
I'll let you guess who wrote thisisam said:
Who defended and praised him?TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes they did and yes I am.isam said:
Did they?TheScreamingEagles said:
Be nice to the Kippers today, Coburn's apologised for his vile smear, after some of the Kippers on here defended him and praised him.TGOHF said:
Farage book bounce.TheScreamingEagles said:@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (+2), Con 34 (+5), LD 8 (-), UKIP 15 (-3), Greens 5 (-1), Others 5 (-2). Tables here: http://t.co/BzqFMky96x
Are you on UKIP in Basildon South btw?
And what made you back UKIP in this seat?
"I notice that muslims seem to be well entrenched in Scotland. I don't trust any of them, and thats not racism for those ignorant to think so, but on the muslim majority in the UK response to terrorism in the world perpetrated by Jihadists and Islamists. Good luck to Coburn; UKIP tells it like it is. This is the modern world, for those with eyes to see. Unhappily many don't wish to see whats staring them in the face"
Mike told me about Ian Luder a few weeks ago.
Oh so you are on at 4/1 or so not any bigger price than that?
Looking back at it, I backed UKIP in this seat last October, when there were rumours Stephen Metcalfe was about to defect/a UKIP poll in the field in the seat, like they did with Reckless and Carswell.
https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/523104287438950400
Edit and going back further than that
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/basildon-south-and-east-thurrock/winning-party/bet-history/ukip/today
Surprised you don't remember/reference the biggest price you got on at
isam June 2014
South Basildon and East Thurrock
20/1 Ladbrokes
TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles June 2014
thanks
isam June 2014
Did you get on TSE? They have suspd it
TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles June 2014
I did, limited stakes
Well, not that surprised actually, but at least we now have proof you wriggle, squirm and spin rather than give an opponent any credit
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That little slip tells you all you need to know about Labour's chances in Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:So Confidence & Supply?
Miliband Rules Out SNP Ministers Coalition Deal
The Labour leader may have decided against Scottish [I THINK THEY MEANT SNP] ministers in his cabinet but the parties could still do a deal.
http://news.sky.com/story/1446026/miliband-rules-out-snp-ministers-coalition-deal0 -
Its a good day because he isn't talking about the economy.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
Shock news, Poyet sacked0
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Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to "strike deals with a minority Labour UK Government" and added she "cannot see for the life of me" why Mr Miliband would want to rule out a coalition with the SNP.
"I cannot see for the life of me why Labour wouldn't want to contemplate the possibility of working with the SNP to keep the Tories out of office."
Those two paragraphs put together don't make any sense whatsoever and they are within a few inches of each other.
Sky News putting words into Nicola's mouth here.0 -
All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.0
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The Met Office?!FrancisUrquhart said:All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
Never have trusted those weathermen.0 -
Ed has more Kitchens than the tories have Scottish Mp's :-)SquareRoot said:Have we ascertained how many kitchens man of the people Ed has???
Populus always had to be an outlier
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"There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
Those words could come back to haunt him
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Labour ruling out a COALITION changes nothing. If Labour + SNP gives a majority, Milliband will enter Downing Street.
The Daily Record and others will spin it for all it is worth, but the vast majority of those intending to vote SNP will not be fooled. It may even damage SLAB even further.0 -
Hopefully we'll get the latest Survation poll for Scotland this week. They produced this graph last time round:Pulpstar said:
47% crosstab for the SNP in Scotland. Decent poll for the Conservatives, indicates the 29% was an outlier.Scott_P said:@NCPoliticsUK: Populus:
CON 34 (+5)
LAB 34 (+2)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 15 (-3)
GRN 5 (-1)
Fieldwork 13th-15th
N=2,013
Tabs http://t.co/J31Ayb88qw
#GE2015
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/5684862589320929280 -
LOL....Peter_the_Punter said:
The Met Office?!FrancisUrquhart said:All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
Never have trusted those weathermen.0 -
I think it skews left, though I think they make the attempt (usually but not always successfully) to keep the presentation impartial. IIRC the website news is meant to manage that better than the actual broadcast stuff, but I generally get all my info online so couldn't say.Floater said:
I seem to recall people saying the BBC has a left wing bias and worldview -it really is hard to argue with that - especially when their own staff admit it.SouthamObserver said:
The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.MaxPB said:
You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.SouthamObserver said:I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.
But no, a lot of people will insist they are the worst thing since an unsliced loaf, and just goes a bit more extreme than the evidence warrants I feel, which is a shame.0 -
And, unsurprisingly, the Telegraph.Pulpstar said:Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said she would be willing to "strike deals with a minority Labour UK Government" and added she "cannot see for the life of me" why Mr Miliband would want to rule out a coalition with the SNP.
"I cannot see for the life of me why Labour wouldn't want to contemplate the possibility of working with the SNP to keep the Tories out of office."
Those two paragraphs put together don't make any sense whatsoever and they are within a few inches of each other.
Sky News putting words into Nicola's mouth here.
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'0 -
Ed no longer 'despicable'?0
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The most telling words from Sturg today was that she was urging voters in England to vote Green aka full communism.
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Ed has been bullied into this by Cameron. Not really leadership material is he?
But I think that a majority of those that remain in SLAB will be happy. I think they hate the SNP more than the Tories these days.0 -
Toby Young trots out the very obvious and easy Conservative attack line on Labour now:
If @Ed_Miliband thinks ruling out a *coalition* with the SNP is going to put this question to bed, he’s barking. What about a *deal*?0 -
Just heard the definitive verdict on Tony Blair's tenure as middle east special envoy.
RUBBISH!0 -
Quite. An arrangement will be made to the satisfaction of both parties if necessary I am sure. Ed M would not have ruled out a formal coalition if it would actually compromise his ability to strike a deal of some kind to keep out the Tories, I am sure. But it removes the most direct attack line. Obviously there is still the attack line Pulpstar quotes from Toby Young, but sticking to 'No Coalition, period', still plays better than 'I don't want a Coalition, period'.JPJ2 said:Labour ruling out a COALITION changes nothing. If Labour + SNP gives a majority, Milliband will enter Downing Street.
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The problem here is that Miliband has been forced into this by Cameron's pressure last week and English Labour MPs panicking. It simply reinforces the view that he is weak, weak, weak.chestnut said:
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
Sunderland get Dick in
(Now he knows what it is like to manage a big club in Britain)
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/mar/16/sunderland-sack-gus-poyet-dick-advocaat?CMP=share_btn_tw0 -
What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/10 -
Top man old Dickie A - wins trophies for fun.TheScreamingEagles said:Sunderland get Dick in
(Now he knows what it is like to manage a big club in Britain)
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2015/mar/16/sunderland-sack-gus-poyet-dick-advocaat?CMP=share_btn_tw
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Ed MIliband in Guiseley - Pudsey is THE seat of this GE I reckon
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Was he dumped .... on?TheScreamingEagles said:Shock news, Poyet sacked
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OK, you politically correct folk. I for one will use sceptic rather than denier in future ;-)CarlottaVance said:
It is also not the language of Science, but of faith.Morris_Dancer said:
The term 'denier' has clear connotations to Holocaust denial. It's an ugly term.
Few serious scientists use the term - "sceptic" is far more appropriate.
(although 'denier' is an accurate description of someone who is denying something)0 -
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?0 -
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the EnglishBond_James_Bond said:Quite.
My issue with the Tories is the unfunded, unsupported pledge to continue to feed more of my money to Scotland. They had not the slightest right to make any such pledge, given that the rest of the UK wasn't getting to vote on the matter. If Cameron wanted to tell Scotland they'll get more English money if they vote Yes then the only honest thing to do thereafter was give England a referendum on whether to endorse such an offer.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
All governments are guilty of this to one extent or another, its a natural by-product of democracy.Government's get judged on what they do, so while I'd ideally like a government that simply rolled back nonsense previous government's have done, they'd be pillored for not doing anything themselves.kle4 said:It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
I'd rather have a government that is economically competent and tinkering with small things, than being either economically incompetent or banning wholesale big things.
What's worse: saying what you can or can't do with your money, saying what you can or can't do personally, not saying you can't do anything but that you have to remove the colour red off a box of Marlboro cigarettes?0 -
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0 -
0
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Sorry I misread it as 35/34Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.
I'll go back to bed.0 -
@mattholehouse: Nicola Sturgeon says Ed Miliband has not ruled out working with SNP, merely ruled out a formal Coalition she didn't want. She is correct.0
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Barnett formula helps Wales and Northern Ireland. England is considerably above rUK in GVA average, Scotland is too but less so.0
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Yes, but my feeling is the Tories are particularly guilty of this at the moment, that it is something they do enthusiastically, not as part of the rough and tumble of politics.Philip_Thompson said:
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the EnglishBond_James_Bond said:Quite.
My issue with the Tories is the unfunded, unsupported pledge to continue to feed more of my money to Scotland. They had not the slightest right to make any such pledge, given that the rest of the UK wasn't getting to vote on the matter. If Cameron wanted to tell Scotland they'll get more English money if they vote Yes then the only honest thing to do thereafter was give England a referendum on whether to endorse such an offer.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
All governments are guilty of this to one extent or another, its a natural by-product of democracy.?kle4 said:It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
Wouldn't we all, but neither is really on the table. Not-economically-disastrous is about the most we can hope for.Philip_Thompson said:
I entirely agree. We should have full English Votes for English Laws and the Barnett formula should be abolished. Let the Scottish Parliament have the same amount of taxes per capita to spend on devolved issues as the EnglishBond_James_Bond said:Quite.
The sooner the 86% leftist voters of Scotland are cut loose and made to fund socialism out of their own pockets, the better. Tough love, really.
Like the GDR they'll take 50 years of misery to come to their senses, but unlike the GDR there'll be no BRD waiting to let them back in.
I'd rather have a government that is economically competent and tinkering with small things, than being either economically incompetent or banning wholesale big things.kle4 said:It was my understanding that the modern Tory party, and particularly Cameron, are all about telling people what to do when it comes to small things, nannying little measures all over the place. If that's not the case, the image problem extends to more areas than I realised.
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Glad you don't mind a mild tease, Francis.FrancisUrquhart said:
LOL....Peter_the_Punter said:
The Met Office?!FrancisUrquhart said:All this Grant Shapps stuff pales into insignificance to the fact that the Met office are going to be probed over potential cover ups over child sex offences that have been going on for 35 years.
Never have trusted those weathermen.
Seriously though, I take this as a healthy sign. Time was when they would brush this kind of thing aside. Now they are at least taking matters a bit more seriously.
I have some anecdotal evidence on this from personal experience. Will relate it idc as I think it will interest you, but it's a little complicated and I am pressed for time just now.0 -
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0 -
@reporterboy: This no deal with SNP is disingenious. There needn't be SNP ministers, or coalition, to still do a deal with SNP for No. 10 and they know it0
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Evening Standard
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/sixtytwo-percent-of-voters-dislike-ed-miliband-poll-shows-10110770.html
"Ed Miliband suffered a new blow today as an exclusive poll revealed that he is the most disliked of all the main party leaders.
Research by Ipsos MORI found Mr Miliband arouses more antipathy than any other leader, including Nick Clegg, with some 62 per cent of the public saying they do not like him. His lack of popularity is in striking contrast with the public’s affection for the party he leads, because while only 30 per cent say they like him, 52 per cent like Labour — a huge 22-point gap.
"0 -
The options for next government increasingly seem to be shrinking to Lab minority, Lab/LD, Con/LD, Con minority. Yet you can make arbs with those options from a variety of bookies. You can get a combined evens or better from the first three - which are surely more than 50% likely?
Check T&Cs of bets, and as ever DYOR.0 -
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0 -
davidL
"Ed has been bullied into this by Cameron. Not really leadership material is he?"
Silly comment. He was 'bullied into it' by market researchers telling him it will lose him more votes than it'll gain him. Why do you think Cameron moved his top minister and friend Michael Gove?...........
For exactly the same reason0 -
Has the transfer window closed?FrancisUrquhart said:
A Cameron led Labour Party would walk it....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori have put up their data tables up on the like/dislike
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3541/Labour-are-the-most-popular-party-but-Miliband-trails-behind.aspx0 -
@paulwaugh: Of course, Miliband's precise words don't rule out Labour 'working' with the SNP in Parl. As Nicola Sturgeon just told SkyNews
@hugorifkind: Ed Miliband refusing to go into coalition with the SNP is a bit like that time I refused to leave my wife for Angelina Jolie.
@Mr_Eugenides: Once again, then, Ed Miliband is beclowned.0 -
Cyclefree
'Why he was ever made it in the first place is a mystery. All he seems to have done is unite all the various parties into loathing him."
He has not improved anyone's living standards or the prospects of peace a jot0 -
If they are +ve in the ICM then that will be news..DavidL said:
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0 -
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ? 0 -
The BBC ran with the Lib Dem donation story. Lord Ashdown was put up to to defend the Lib Dem's integrity on radio 4. The Lib Dems ran a quick damage-limitation exercise: announced an internal enquiry, pseudo-dropped the candidate implicated, etc, so the story just petered out as there was nothing new to say.FrancisUrquhart said:What is interesting, the Telegraph sting on Lib Dem's, BBC didn't run at all. It was fairly small beans, and Telegraph spin that he had anything to do with Alexander was poor, but the fact remains they had a guy in charge of funding raising advising people to make donations in a dodgy way. If the Tories had done that, BBC 100% would have run big with that, as they are with Shapps.
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@ScottyNational: Coalition : Dismay after Miliband rules out the coalition offer not made by the SNP against red lines not defined by the SNP.0
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Well it will be a start. Whilst I don't go nearly as far as OGH I am not sure that Sunil's 0.01% is going to cut it! (edited out a gross exaggeration).TGOHF said:
If they are +ve in the ICM then that will be news..DavidL said:
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0 -
1 extra Tory respondent in YouGov was all it took!Pulpstar said:
So there was in fact crossover last weekSunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each. ?
Final weekly ELBOW tallies:
4,348 Con =33.17%
4,347 Lab =33.16%
1,944 UKIP = 14.83%
969 LD = 7.39%
744 Green = 5.68%
Total weighted sample from 11 polls =13,1080 -
Interesting, then, that Shadsy has just cut Cameron PM at Queens Speech to 4/6, and cut Lab minority to 3/1 Fav in next government marketFrancisUrquhart said:
A Cameron led Labour Party would walk it....TheScreamingEagles said:Ipsos Mori have put up their data tables up on the like/dislike
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3541/Labour-are-the-most-popular-party-but-Miliband-trails-behind.aspx 0 -
LOLDavidL said:
Well it will be a start. Whilst I don't go nearly as far as OGH I am not sure that Sunil's 0.01% is going to cut it! (edited out a gross exaggeration).TGOHF said:
If they are +ve in the ICM then that will be news..DavidL said:
Right anyone wanting to bet that the tories will be up in all 4 polls then? Give you 50:1. Anyone? Anyone at all?Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.
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My view is Mundell out, John Lamont in and I have bet accordingly.Pulpstar said:
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !Theuniondivvie said:
Scottish Tory surges?Richard_Nabavi said:
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?Pulpstar said:
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
Oh, I see what you mean.
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.0 -
Ed Milliband rules out thing that was never going to happen.Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."0 -
New Thread0
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Iain Dale's former predictions were mostly "Safe Labour Hold"Pulpstar said:Interesting that Dale has Conservatives taking West Aberdeen and Kincardine but not Dumfries and Galloway,
My betting position doesn't reflect this so I hope if it is to be three it is the other way round.0 -
If the SNP can hose up in DCT then the rest of my Scottish book should be in good shape. So I won't be too disappointed with that.Alistair said:
My view is Mundell out, John Lamont in and I have bet accordingly.Pulpstar said:
According to election forecast Tories are taking a clean sweep of the borders !Theuniondivvie said:
Scottish Tory surges?Richard_Nabavi said:
But where would the betting interest in Scottish elections be in in the future if they don't make some kind of revival after May?Pulpstar said:
There are quite alot of us bettors that want Labour dead, buried and chucked in an iron casket box in the Clyde never to be seen or heard of again up in Scotland.
Oh, I see what you mean.
3 tricky seats to call, past Mundell holding I'm really not sure on these. And even Mundell is not a cert.0 -
Which applies equally to the Tories and SNP.Scott_P said:@reporterboy: This no deal with SNP is disingenious. There needn't be SNP ministers, or coalition, to still do a deal with SNP for No. 10 and they know it
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theuniondivvie accurately quotes the Telegraph as it continues its descent into tabloid journalism:
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?0 -
They'vw done that before when reporting/making stuff up on the SNPJPJ2 said:theuniondivvie accurately quotes the Telegraph as it continues its descent into tabloid journalism:
SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?
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I think it's sort of irrelevant. What the IndyRef appears to have done is to make Scottish Independence the most important issue for most of the 45% of people who voted for it. That being the case there is nothing that Labour can say that will win those voters back. Ruling out a deal with the SNP becomes purely about how it plays with English voters.chestnut said:
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This is why UKIP are keen on an EU referendum. As the only significant sized party advocating withdrawal from the EU they stand to gain massively if the electorate becomes polarised on the question of whether to stay or leave, even though the polls currently point to a heavy defeat in such a referendum.0 -
Note how the SNP polled just under 20% in Scotland in the 2010 GE, when support for Independence was at roughly one-third of the population - lots of voters in favour of Independence voted for Unionist parties. No more.OblitusSumMe said:
I think it's sort of irrelevant. What the IndyRef appears to have done is to make Scottish Independence the most important issue for most of the 45% of people who voted for it. That being the case there is nothing that Labour can say that will win those voters back. Ruling out a deal with the SNP becomes purely about how it plays with English voters.chestnut said:
This may attract some people back north of the border, thinking the SNP will be powerless, or alternatively it may stiffen resolve, "The English won't compromise, we need a mandate to leave"Scott_P said:@JBeattieMirror: Ed Miliband: "Labour will not go into coalition government with the SNP."
Finally ruled out
@JBeattieMirror: More Ed Miliband: "There will be no SNP ministers in any government I lead."
This is why UKIP are keen on an EU referendum. As the only significant sized party advocating withdrawal from the EU they stand to gain massively if the electorate becomes polarised on the question of whether to stay or leave, even though the polls currently point to a heavy defeat in such a referendum.0 -
>theuniondivvie accurately quotes the Telegraph as it continues its descent into tabloid journalism:
>SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
>I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?
Those are single quotes not speechmarks, which are used to refer to the concept or gist behind what she said not the literal words.
Perfectly acceptable.
(The journalistic practice not Sturgeon's proposal !)0 -
MattW
"Perfectly acceptable."
Not sure when this became-and who says it is-perfectly acceptable.
I suspect few people (if you are correct) would be other than deceived into believing that Sturgeon is being quoted, but I suppose that is precisely the Telegraph's dishonest purpose.0 -
Judging by its usage, almost everyone :-)0
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Hmm. Dishonest purpose?
ISM that it's a spot on summary of the SNP thought.0 -
Small round objects! I meant ISTM.0
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If anything, it is more sophisticated as it requires the reader to know the difference between the two.MattW said:>theuniondivvie accurately quotes the Telegraph as it continues its descent into tabloid journalism:
>SNP: 'We have right to dictate policy for all Britain'
>I don't believe that Sturgeon literally said that so why is it in quotes as the Telegraph headline?
Those are single quotes not speechmarks, which are used to refer to the concept or gist behind what she said not the literal words.
Perfectly acceptable.
(The journalistic practice not Sturgeon's proposal !) 0 -
So, we have ELBOW crossover?Sunil_Prasannan said:
YouGov/Sunday Times spoilt a potential Lab/Con ELBOW lead of 0.00% yesterday! (ended up 0.01% Tory lead!)Pulpstar said:
Yes down to the last 0.00%.DavidL said:
Zero?Greenwich_Floater said:What are the chances of all 4 polls coming out today showing a tory lead
If I was a layer - I be offering 3/1
To be a player - I would want 5/1
Wasn't Populus a draw?
33.52% each.0
