politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take the 4-1 on the former Lord Mayor of London gaining Bas

kle4 said:

Floater said:

richardDodd said:

The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

Then Blair got made Middle East peace ambassador - what a sick joke.

Does he still hold that position does anyone know?

FT is saying this morning that he's standing down.

William Hill have a Grant Shapps market up

Will Grant Shapps Be Tory Party Chairman On The Day Of The General Election?

Yes 1/6

No 7/2

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/7348176/Will-Grant-Shapps-Be-Tory-Party-Chairman-On-The-Day-Of-The-General-Election?.html

TheScreamingEagles said:

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

OFCOM confirms the Greens not a major party

http://media.ofcom.org.uk/news/2015/major-parties-statement/

Does that mean they aren't invited to the debates that aren't happening ?

It means one Green PPB, which means my bet on the Greens outpolling the Lib Dems might just be a loser after all.

Damn you OFCOM, damn you to hell.

The Greens are of course quite useless but it is still a bizarre decision. Its a significant if misguided movement and they have a bona fide MP.

Sean_F said:

Casino_Royale said:

logical_song said:

ThomasNashe said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/577407923703398401/photo/1

If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.

Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!

I think it would be Minority Con with DUP and LD C&S. The "bedroom tax" would need to be changed, and a concession given on electoral reform for locals.

However, it'd probably hang together until after the EU referendum. Tories would match (and with the DUP outvote) the Lefties: SNP + Labour + Green + SDLP + PC combined.

I think that if Peter Kellner's vote shares were to pan out (Con 36%, Lab 31%) then the Conservatives would probably be over 300 seats.

The forecasts look a bit generous in terms of votes, but a bit poor in the translation of votes to seats for the Tories to me.

F1: blimey. Mercedes all the way down to 3.5 to win every race this season [Ladbrokes]. Although I tipped that pre-season (at 17), I think that's far too short. Reliability, weather, etc all make it still fairly unlikely.

Police watchdog to investigate alleged corruption in Met Police over child sex offences from 1970s to 2000s

Tick tick tick....

If you want a 5% return by Wednesday, William Hill have it at 1/20 that George Osborne will say Long Term Economic Plan during the budget

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5462109/2015-March-Budget.html

TGOHF said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

William Hill have a Grant Shapps market up

Will Grant Shapps Be Tory Party Chairman On The Day Of The General Election?

Yes 1/6

No 7/2

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/e/7348176/Will-Grant-Shapps-Be-Tory-Party-Chairman-On-The-Day-Of-The-General-Election?.html

Might be worth a tickle - expect a drip drip over the week by the Beeb-Guard to derail the budget.

I wholeheartedly condemn any reporting of the fact that Grant Shapps has been exposed as a liar and as someone who is prepared to threaten legal action to reinforce his lies. It is outrageous that this has been revealed and shows clear bias. I am sure all other reasonable people of whatever political persuasion feel the same.

Eagle

"Scotland doesn't do racism, it hasn't got the time, as we're too busy engaged in Sectarianism"

Very good!

logical_song said:

Casino_Royale said:

logical_song said:

ThomasNashe said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/577407923703398401/photo/1

If that turns out to be correct, it's really hard to see how a government of any sort can be formed.

Continuing minority Con-LD coalition, or grand Con-Lab coalition. Someone has to govern!

I think it would be Minority Con with DUP and LD C&S. The "bedroom tax" would need to be changed, and a concession given on electoral reform for locals.

However, it'd probably hang together until after the EU referendum. Tories would match (and with the DUP outvote) the Lefties: SNP + Labour + Green + SDLP + PC combined.

That would make sense from the Tories' point of view. However, how would the public view C&S from the LDs - isn't that practically as bad as a coalition, but without any of your policies being implemented? Isn't it still 'propping up the Tories'?

It's a point worthy of debate. As Antifrank has pointed out, a post GE Lib Dems is likely to lean a little more to the Left.

My view is that if the Lib Dems hold the balance of power, and are offered something they really want, they'll agree to prop up until it's passed. They'll want influence and to be seen as responsible. But they might not want to sully themselves with another coalition.

That'd leave them free to vote against any other Tory legislation they didn't like too.

The alternative is they do pitch for a 2nd coalition, on condition they take control of a major government department and its policy. I think transport, welfare, or education would be their gambits. But the Tories wouldn't play ball on education.

I see the latter as less likely.

SouthamObserver said:

I wholeheartedly condemn any reporting of the fact that Grant Shapps has been exposed as a liar and as someone who is prepared to threaten legal action to reinforce his lies. It is outrageous that this has been revealed and shows clear bias. I am sure all other reasonable people of whatever political persuasion feel the same.

Reasonable people of any political persuasion will feel that this ludicrous attack by the Guardian on Grant Shapps (who correctly declared his interest in the Register of Interests at the time, so is certainly not a 'liar' as you call him) is as daft as the attacks on Danny Alexander, by the Telegraph a few days ago, or on Harriet Harman, by the Mail over the Paedophile Information Exchange.

TheScreamingEagles said:

If you want a 5% return by Wednesday, William Hill have it at 1/20 that George Osborne will say Long Term Economic Plan during the budget

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5462109/2015-March-Budget.html

You betting on his tie?

1/3 on Election looks pretty good too. Can't see how he'd avoid saying that at some point.

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If you want a 5% return by Wednesday, William Hill have it at 1/20 that George Osborne will say Long Term Economic Plan during the budget

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5462109/2015-March-Budget.html

You betting on his tie?

1/3 on Election looks pretty good too. Can't see how he'd avoid saying that at some point.

I like betting on ties, I'm tempted to go for Blue

OldKingCole said:

Floater said:

foxinsoxuk said:

OldKingCole said:

Isn’t he also a former Chair of Basildon Hospital which has had it’s problems over the past few years?

He wrote this piece on his family origins in the Guardian:

http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2009/jan/31/family-life-grandparents-son

It sounds as if his Grandfather was another Romanian refugee done good, despite the difficulties with his passport.

Luder does seem to have been effective at turning around Basildon Hospital, which does seem to have improved over the last five years:

http://www.theguardian.com/healthcare-network/2014/nov/14/basildon-hospital-turned-around-clare-panniker

Several years ago I needed to be hospitalised and because of where I lived at the time was given a choice of Chelmsford or Basildon hospitals.

Comments from people we knew made it clear to choose "anything but Basildon".

Mind you, I was not impressed by Chelmsford, especially the cleanliness of the ward.

If Basildon has been turned around that is great news.

Mind you, my local hospital is now Colchester .... which has its own problems.

Been very impressed with Chelmsford, especially, except for one person the last time I went, the courtesy and general attitude of the staff. That’s mostly out-patients admittedly; haven’t been “in” for several years.

In general the staff were lovely - my main issue was cleanliness - put it this way they showed me to one bed and when we were left for a moment I looked at my wife and said "this room is disgusting I am not staying here" - I was then moved elsewhere whether by coincidence or otherwise.

oh - and the staff did tend to ignore an elderly lady with Dementia, but she did call out a lot even overnight.

Experience with A and E was not too bad.

Fracture clinic was ok too - but it seemed strange to me to put that where it is as its a bloody long haul on crutches through the building ! then you get sent somewhere else to wait (opposite end) - and then back again when you are called.

The place could have been laid out better that's for sure (ps this is new build not some legacy of the Victorian age)

stodge said:

Pulpstar said:

Ante-post horses: If anyone can get on with Racebets, the 16-1 on Don Poli for the King George chase is probably worth a small each way punt.

Ladbrokes 5-2 on Vautour is crazily skinny but he'll probably go off on Boxing day around this price.

Would they travel to Kempton to take on Coneygree and Silvinianco Conti or stay in Ireland for the Lexus at Leopardstown ? No guarantees it'll be decent ground at Kempton.

As for Vautour, the bookies' pockets are lined with the cash of punters who backed doubtful stayers in the King George. I wouldn't go anywhere near 5/2.

Good point about the Lexus ^^;

stodge said:

Pulpstar said:

Ante-post horses: If anyone can get on with Racebets, the 16-1 on Don Poli for the King George chase is probably worth a small each way punt.

Ladbrokes 5-2 on Vautour is crazily skinny but he'll probably go off on Boxing day around this price.

Would they travel to Kempton to take on Coneygree and Silvinianco Conti or stay in Ireland for the Lexus at Leopardstown ? No guarantees it'll be decent ground at Kempton.

As for Vautour, the bookies' pockets are lined with the cash of punters who backed doubtful stayers in the King George. I wouldn't go anywhere near 5/2.

There's a popular misconception that Kempton is a speedster's track.

In fact it is much more of a genuine stayer's track, as the times and the nature of the successful horses there indicate. I don't why that is. You'd think a flat 3m would be easier than a hilly 3m2f, but the fact is you need a real good stayer to win over the King George distance, Desert Orchid being the stand-out example.

I wouldn't touch the Ante Post market at this stage.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

If you want a 5% return by Wednesday, William Hill have it at 1/20 that George Osborne will say Long Term Economic Plan during the budget

http://sports.williamhill.com/bet/en-gb/betting/g/5462109/2015-March-Budget.html

You betting on his tie?

1/3 on Election looks pretty good too. Can't see how he'd avoid saying that at some point.

I like betting on ties, I'm tempted to go for Blue

I'm hoping for a Kipper tie.

Jonathan said:

Quite frankly I can't see what the Tories see in him.

I'm not a great fan myself, but I think that what the party sees in him is that he is a very effective party chairman. The canvassing and campaigning are much more professional now than they were in 2009/10.

Jonathan said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

SouthamObserver said:

I wholeheartedly condemn any reporting of the fact that Grant Shapps has been exposed as a liar and as someone who is prepared to threaten legal action to reinforce his lies. It is outrageous that this has been revealed and shows clear bias. I am sure all other reasonable people of whatever political persuasion feel the same.

Reasonable people of any political persuasion will feel that this ludicrous attack by the Guardian on Grant Shapps (who correctly declared his interest in the Register of Interests at the time, so is certainly not a 'liar' as you call him) is as daft as the attacks on Danny Alexander, by the Telegraph a few days ago, or on Harriet Harman, by the Mail over the Paedophile Information Exchange.

Shapps/Green should never have used the word "never". He opened himself to this charge.

Quite frankly I can't see what the Tories see in him.

Indeed, he should have told the truth.

First, Grant Shapps a throwback to the Tory 1980's loadsamoney Harry Enfield if ever there was one. Could the Tories not have found a woman or an safe pair of hands for this role, instead of someone as grating as Shapps with his ridiculous name? Reality TV beckons for him.

Second, the betting markets. The liquidity on the most seats market on betfair is quite astonishing- people are putting on serious cash for the Tories. Long gone are the Betfair days where I set off a new thread on here on the London Mayoral market after I popped a tenner on Boris and singlehandedly set his odds plummeting. Mike came out with a thread speculating on a new spectacular poll.

stodge said:

Pulpstar said:

Ante-post horses: If anyone can get on with Racebets, the 16-1 on Don Poli for the King George chase is probably worth a small each way punt.

Ladbrokes 5-2 on Vautour is crazily skinny but he'll probably go off on Boxing day around this price.

Would they travel to Kempton to take on Coneygree and Silvinianco Conti or stay in Ireland for the Lexus at Leopardstown ? No guarantees it'll be decent ground at Kempton.

As for Vautour, the bookies' pockets are lined with the cash of punters who backed doubtful stayers in the King George. I wouldn't go anywhere near 5/2.

As for Conti, I don't think he'll win the King George this year. Cheltenham isn't his track and 3-1 SP for him this year was a crazy SP. If Vautour runs, he beats Conti. 2014 King George was packed full of "Doubtful stayers" !

Putin returns ....

Apparently he went to the moon in a red London double-decker bus, met Elvis and Shergar and came back on a B52 bomber.

Nothing too odd about that whatsoever.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-31904882

Peter_the_Punter said:

Yes, Dave was presumably aware that he was a bit of a chancer when he made the appointment and clearly thought his other qualities outweighed the risk.

I can't see Dave dumping him now over anything so trivial as fibbing to the House, or getting his dates mixed up. As long as he remembers what's coming up on May 7th, he'll be fine and the 1/6 with William Hill looks about right.

Yeah, this is complete froth, synthetic indignation by the Guardian, with a lavish dollop of snobbery. It's about as feeble a partisan attack as you'll ever get.

@Peter_the_punter Thought the 26.0 on Don Poli for the King George was too good to be true on Betfair, forgot about the bloody Lexus ;p

Richard_Nabavi said:

Jonathan said:

Quite frankly I can't see what the Tories see in him.

I'm not a great fan myself, but I think that what the party sees in him is that he is a very effective party chairman. The canvassing and campaigning are much more professional now than they were in 2009/10.

Canvassing and campaigning are all about making a sales pitch, and getting the customer to buy in.

A bit of professionalism helps.

stodge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

There's a popular misconception that Kempton is a speedster's track.

In fact it is much more of a genuine stayer's track, as the times and the nature of the successful horses there indicate. I don't why that is. You'd think a flat 3m would be easier than a hilly 3m2f, but the fact is you need a real good stayer to win over the King George distance, Desert Orchid being the stand-out example.

I wouldn't touch the Ante Post market at this stage.

The reason is quite simple - it's a flat track and they go fast from the start. The King George is a championship race and run at a decent pace irrespective of ground. The doubtful stayer is found out by the pace rather than by the track.

The faster pace also tests the jumping and there's no time to recover from a blunder. I like it as a jumps track and relish the contrast to Cheltenham. Aintree isn't unlike it albeit the other way round while Sandown is in some respects nearer to Cheltenham than Kempton.

Desert Orchid was of course an exception to every rule - truly one of the greats. He was also so much better right-handed - his race against Panto Prince in the Victor Chandler remains one of my all-time jumping highlights.

Scrubbing jumps from races favours the stayer I reckon.

It is worth remembering that the last assault on the Cons by the BBC and Guardian amounted to literally nothing, in fact it got Labour in a massive tangle over what kind of tax avoidance is acceptable.

There really is very little in it and Shapps is has a Teflon like quality.

Ian Luder's wife Lin used to do IT support at my old office. Was quite good pals with her. Was a shock when it was suddenly announced she was to be Lady Mayor!

MikeK said:

The Mayoral infighting spreads:

PoliticsHome ‏@politicshome 32m32 minutes ago
Zac Goldsmith has been warned off mounting a late bid for London Mayor by a potential rival http://polho.me/1Fr81mW

Not infighting... just two candidates for the same post in a free and fair election

Unless you'd prefer a system in which we don't bother with elections?

Pulpstar said:

We've had some decent contenders for feeble partisan attacks recently though - Does it top two kitchens Miliband ?

That was funnier, especially since it was the helpful intervention of Jenni Russell which gave it legs.

Pulpstar said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Yes, Dave was presumably aware that he was a bit of a chancer when he made the appointment and clearly thought his other qualities outweighed the risk.

I can't see Dave dumping him now over anything so trivial as fibbing to the House, or getting his dates mixed up. As long as he remembers what's coming up on May 7th, he'll be fine and the 1/6 with William Hill looks about right.

Yeah, this is complete froth, synthetic indignation by the Guardian, with a lavish dollop of snobbery. It's about as feeble a partisan attack as you'll ever get.

We've had some decent contenders for feeble partisan attacks recently though - Does it top two kitchens Miliband ?

Kitchengate was really funny though. It plays into everything I loathe about the current Labour leadership. They are just as white, public school/Oxford educated as the Cons, but they claim to be "of the people", a nice reminder to anyone who read about the story that Labour are the same as the Cons, worse because they claim not to be.

SouthamObserver said:

I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.

You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian are partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.

@NCPoliticsUK: Populus:

CON 34 (+5)
LAB 34 (+2)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 15 (-3)
GRN 5 (-1)

Fieldwork 13th-15th
N=2,013
Tabs http://t.co/J31Ayb88qw
#GE2015

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.

You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.

The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.

Scott_P said:

@NCPoliticsUK: Populus:

CON 34 (+5)
LAB 34 (+2)
LIB 8 (=)
UKIP 15 (-3)
GRN 5 (-1)

Fieldwork 13th-15th
N=2,013
Tabs http://t.co/J31Ayb88qw
#GE2015

Getting some crazy swings...I think it was all kitchen-gate that did it :-)

@pppolitics: Government denies long-term drop in unemployment directly related to number of jobs Grant Shapps has.

@PopulusPolls: Latest Populus VI: Lab 34 (+2), Con 34 (+5), LD 8 (-), UKIP 15 (-3), Greens 5 (-1), Others 5 (-2). Tables here: http://t.co/BzqFMky96x

Off topic. Is Sunderland going to dump on Poyet or will he dump first? Innocent face.

MaxPB said:

Pulpstar said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.

You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.

Are there any non partisan news organisations though ?

Of course not, but I haven't said that anywhere. It's SO who thinks that the Guardian and BBC are acting only on a non-partisan basis. It's pretty blatant that the Telegraph, Sun, Mail and others are lined up behind the Tories which is what made kitchengate so funny. It was a blatantly partisan story from the Mail given legs by Ed's utter stupidity.

As I say, the Guardian is clearly partisan.

kle4 said:

Floater said:

richardDodd said:

The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

Then Blair got made Middle East peace ambassador - what a sick joke.

Does he still hold that position does anyone know?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11474157/Tony-Blair-had-no-credibility-in-Middle-East-process-where-all-sides-would-roll-their-eyes-at-mention-him-says-US-official.html

SO will always say the BBC is non-partisan, non-bias, gets things about right, no matter how many BBC employees actually come out and say themselves that the BBC have a problem with bias. It isn't a Labour vs Tory bias, it is a liberal left metro elite worldview bubble view bias.

UKIP down 3. Has Farage dropped the ball?

(well, someone had to....)

Dear All,

Quick question on the Betfair Next Government Market which has been puzzling me for some time.

The 8 options are:
Con or Lab Minority
Con or Lab Majority
Con-Lib-Dem Coalition or Lab-Lib-Dem Coalition
Con-UKIP Coalition
Any Other Government/Coalition

My puzzle concerns what will be the winning bet in the event of a minority coalition government. For example if the results are something like this:
Cons: 290
Lab: 260
SNP: 45
Lib-Dem : 30
PC/Green/Respect: 4
UKIP: 3
NI: 18 (including 9 DUP)

Then a possibility, IMHO a strong possibility, would be a minority coalition involving either of the two main parties and the Lib Dems supported for C&S by either UKIP/DUP (in the case of Con-Lib Dem) or SNP +other leftists (in the case of Lab-Lib-Dem). I define a coalition as being a government where there are Lib-Dem ministers as well as those from the relevant major party.

My question is, if that is the case, what would be the winning Betfair bet: would it be
1. The coalition options
2. The minority govt. options (presumably unlikely)
3. The any other government/coalition option.

If anyone has any idea I would be very grateful.

Thank you in advance.

SouthamObserver said:

MaxPB said:

SouthamObserver said:

I am loving the way that any negative reporting of the Tories has now become an assault on them by the BBC and the Guardian.

You keep pretending that neither the BBC or the Guardian aren't partisan organisations. It just makes you look stupid.

The Guardian is certainly partisan. And preachy. And generally not that good. I never buy it. I think that PB posters and others who routinely claim the BBC is pro-Labour and anti-Tory are utterly ridiculous.

When I was at University in the 1960's I chose the Guardian as my newspaper because the news articles did not seem biased for or against any one party and comment and opinion was kept separate.

As time has gone by the Guardian has become more selective in its choice of news and articles have become slanted. In particular news articles are slanted against political parties other than Labour. In particulatr at present the Guardian slants news articles against UKIP, Conservative and Lib Dems.

I feel very let down by the Guardian tainting news with such opinion. However, because of a 50 year loyalty I continue to buy it but prefer the Financial Times coverage where news is not slanted even though editorials tend to favour Labour.

Floater said:

kle4 said:

Floater said:

richardDodd said:

The biggest lie of recent years and made in the HOC was Blairs when he said he had seen incontrovertible evidence of WMD...He hadn't...and a lot of people paid for his lie with their lives.

Then Blair got made Middle East peace ambassador - what a sick joke.

Does he still hold that position does anyone know?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/tony-blair/11474157/Tony-Blair-had-no-credibility-in-Middle-East-process-where-all-sides-would-roll-their-eyes-at-mention-him-says-US-official.html

And in other surprising news today....