politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets
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@JohnRentoul: Good friend @rob_marchant explains why EdM should have ruled out an SNP pact (too late now, of course) http://t.co/z6ZIvsXddy0
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+Jezza.bigjohnowls said:
Apart from this one
Roads petition breaks a million
M6 Toll Road
Ministers are mulling plans for "pay-as-you-drive" scheme
More than one million people have signed an online petition against plans to introduce road charging in the UK.
The petition, which is the most popular on the Downing Street website, calls for the scrapping of "planned vehicle tracking and road pricing policy"
In other words, the most important issue in the UK is Man + Car.
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You're defending the notorious kiddie fiddler Cyril Smith? Really? Disgusting.MarkSenior said:
Smearing someone who is dead and unable therefore to defend themselves . What a pusillanimous little SH1TE you areTCPoliticalBetting said:I thought and hoped this was a Clarkson free thread. Has he actually murdered anyone or committed Cyril Smith levels of abuse?
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Mahoosive self awareness bypass.MarkSenior said:
Smearing someone who is dead and unable therefore to defend themselves . What a pusillanimous little SH1TE you areTCPoliticalBetting said:I thought and hoped this was a Clarkson free thread. Has he actually murdered anyone or committed Cyril Smith levels of abuse?
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Like Jimmy Savile, you mean?MarkSenior said:
Smearing someone who is dead and unable therefore to defend themselves .TCPoliticalBetting said:I thought and hoped this was a Clarkson free thread. Has he actually murdered anyone or committed Cyril Smith levels of abuse?
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Mr. T, disagree on Clarkson's petition being about cars/roads. It's about people who feel they get very little from the BBC despite funding it (not unlike bin collection being the only thing people often feel they get from the council) and are pissed off Top Gear might cease altogether.
There's an added layer of loathing political correctness.0 -
@Morris_Dancer
Swinging a punch at someone because your dinner is not on the table is frowned upon these days.
I know you don't do "modern" history, but it has been so for quite a while .0 -
test0
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If you move outside of London, you pretty much need a car, which is one of the reasons why London-centric decision making or power brokers is a problem.Smarmeron said:@chestnut
It kind of makes sense, the majority of the country would become housebound if they lost their car.
The rest of the country doesn't have a dozen tube lines and hundreds of bus routes that run 24 hours a day.
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Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
You know what really annoys me about twitter images, you can't easily zoom in to see them at their original size. Always have to drag the image into the address bar in order to do it. GrrFrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph got a big splash....
https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/5757750326616555520 -
It might not be that straight forward..trying to read the text and it seems this was setup by a Ibrahim Taguri....the question is what other politicians or parties have taken some dodgy donations from this sting operation?TheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
Yeh, nothing from you since March 8th.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. K, most peculiar. Have you checked your inbox? [Top right of your Vanilla profile].
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Danny was toast years ago...TheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg
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Not true - I feel I also get a limited amount of street lighting, which is just as well given the current incidence of potholes and also er..... um ..... well yes that's about it really.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. T, disagree on Clarkson's petition being about cars/roads. It's about people who feel they get very little from the BBC despite funding it (not unlike bin collection being the only thing people often feel they get from the council) and are pissed off Top Gear might cease altogether.
There's an added layer of loathing political correctness.0 -
Mr. K, ahem, that's the thing I was referring to
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I knowGIN1138 said:
Danny was toast years ago...TheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
The Telegraph will be publishing the story on their website at 10pm0
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Read the story, and it's not what headline would like the reader to believe.FrancisUrquhart said:Telegraph got a big splash
Alexander wasn't on the receiving end of the donation...0 -
You worked out the difference between a freeze and a cap?Smarmeron said:@Tykejohnno
Calling some on here thick is the most I can get away with, but if it is any consolation, have a look at some of the things I get called.
As for stopping people replying? nope, it destroys the entertainment.
You appear to be coagulating nicely though.0 -
Am I correct in thinking when the DUP talk about "UK border controls" they're not referring to the Channel, but to the totally open Ireland/Northern Ireland border?Pulpstar said:
Seem quite left wing - all the right wing issues (Sodomy in Ulster etc) tend to be devolved.TheScreamingEagles said:Interesting, very interesting, the DUP says
We’ll back the party that scraps the bedroom tax - In a hung parliament, Northern Ireland’s DUP will back whoever prioritises defence, social justice and beefs up UK border controls
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/11/tories-labour-democratic-unionist-support
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It's not very realistic, surely she's chunkier than that?dr_spyn said:Pass the mind bleach. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/fury-sexist-sun-depict-first-5314278
Daily Record v The Sun's use of mocked up photo of Sturgeon and wrecking ball and tartan bikini.
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DUP lay out its demand for providing support for the next government:
http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/general-election-2015/dup-lays-out-postpoll-pact-demands-31059776.html0 -
Dan Dan the dead in the water manTheScreamingEagles said:The Telegraph will be publishing the story on their website at 10pm
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My village used to have a regular (empty) bus every couple of hours, it now has a community taxi once a week.chestnut said:
If you move outside of London, you pretty much need a car, which is one of the reasons why London-centric decision making or power brokers is a problem.Smarmeron said:@chestnut
It kind of makes sense, the majority of the country would become housebound if they lost their car.
The rest of the country doesn't have a dozen tube lines and hundreds of bus routes that run 24 hours a day.0 -
Mr. Lilburne, sexist? Bah. People just love claiming offence and throwing accusations of bigotry.
I blame the French for this.
Edited extra bit: goodnight, everyone.0 -
At least it wasn't Eck in the swimwear!JohnLilburne said:
It's not very realistic, surely she's chunkier than that?dr_spyn said:Pass the mind bleach. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/fury-sexist-sun-depict-first-5314278
Daily Record v The Sun's use of mocked up photo of Sturgeon and wrecking ball and tartan bikini.0 -
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
More crucially for him, will this scandal impact on whatever new job he no doubt was lining up for after May in any case?TheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
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She looks fandabidozi to me in thatTheWatcher said:
At least it wasn't Eck in the swimwear!JohnLilburne said:
It's not very realistic, surely she's chunkier than that?dr_spyn said:Pass the mind bleach. http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/fury-sexist-sun-depict-first-5314278
Daily Record v The Sun's use of mocked up photo of Sturgeon and wrecking ball and tartan bikini.
Even better than her schoolboy outfit0 -
Can we get back on thread. Failure to follow instructions will lead to banning
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Thread Header: "CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets"
In fact Sporting have had the Tories 10 seats ahead of Labour for some time, but as I pointed out yesterday, they evidently can't be bothered to update their prices on their PB.com advertising ..... sloppy.0 -
I'm not seeing on the Telegraph site yet.0
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Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Lilburne, sexist? Bah. People just love claiming offence and throwing accusations of bigotry.
I blame the French for this.
he he...!0 -
Danny Alexander has been virtually certain to lose his Inverness seat by a considerable measure for quite some time now. One only has to look at the bookies' odds to realise the impossible mountain he has to climb.Pulpstar said:
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
We not allowed to talk about Danny and the dodgy donation?MikeSmithson said:Can we get back on thread. Failure to follow instructions will lead to banning
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It's also likely that the winning party will receive a post-war low share of the vote, below the current record set in 2005. In that context it's actually to be expected that the winner will be relatively poorly regarded compared to precedent. The converse would be surprising.Cyclefree said:
There is always "no precedent" for something happening until it happens and then, bang, there's your precedent.chestnut said:
A brief flick through the history of previous leaders that are polling as poorly as Ed explains the increasing confidence of Tories.Cyclefree said:On thread: I do wonder whether there's a lot of counting chickens on the Tory side.
Even assuming a slight Tory lead - and probably to add to all the excitement we'll find that Labour are 5% ahead tonight - it still likely means that Labour will form the next government. So no real change from what has been likely for the last 3 years or so.
It sometimes feels as if the Tories think that because they find EdM unimaginably awful they simply cannot imagine how anyone can possibly vote Labour. That lack of imagination about why (a) people might not vote Tory - despite what the Tories think of as their own superior competence; and/or (b) people might vote Labour is a big failing.
It tends to turn into a "But the voters cannot be / won't be that stupid, surely!" rant, which is not tremendously attractive.
No one, Lab or Con, has been so poorly rated and won.
There isn't a big enough tribe to support such a lowly regarded leader.
Just because no-one has been so poorly rated and won does not mean that this might not happen - for the first time - this time.
Electoral laws are hardly the laws of physics.0 -
New LD candidate for Bent Central needed?
Alexander doesn't seem to be in the shit as much as the wanabee MP.
no comments on Telegraph website.0 -
You are not following this. The CON lead has fluctuated a fair bit between 8 and 10 over past two days. Indeed it has now edged back to 8. The panel above is being updated in real time.peter_from_putney said:Thread Header: "CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets"
In fact Sporting have had the Tories 10 seats ahead of Labour for some time, but as I pointed out yesterday, they evidently can't be bothered to update their prices on their PB.com advertising ..... sloppy.
Your comments about SPIN are wrong.
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I wondered exactly the same thing.FrancisUrquhart said:
We not allowed to talk about Danny and the dodgy donation?MikeSmithson said:Can we get back on thread. Failure to follow instructions will lead to banning
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CHELSEA
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Was he being lined up for Top Gear?kle4 said:
More crucially for him, will this scandal impact on whatever new job he no doubt was lining up for after May in any case?TheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
'Star in a reasonably priced taxi' with Clegg replacing The Stig.0 -
It was TSE sir he made us do it by mentioning one of front pagesMikeSmithson said:Can we get back on thread. Failure to follow instructions will lead to banning
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Till election night.TheScreamingEagles said:Looks like Danny is ok
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2VEbbWEAAQ3ao.jpg0 -
The Lib Dems have history on dodgy donations.. Who was the donor?0
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Chelsea out......0
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Telegraph expose sounding very, very bad for the Lib-Dems...0
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This is ridiculous: how could anyone believe that someone would actually want to give the LibDems money?0
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That should have had the alarm bells ringing when the guy talked about giving £100k....rcs1000 said:This is ridiculous: how could anyone believe that someone would actually want to give the LibDems money?
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They had a lawyer on BBC early and it is a little bit more complex than being reported (it appears the old hippies didn't do the divorce properly and in full), but its still nuts.SeanT said:This new divorce settlement law is just fecking nuts. Can we argue about THAT rather JC?
You have sex 30 years ago, have a baby, break up, she takes the child. But the woman can come back 30 years later and make claims on money you made long long after you last saw her?
WTF. Just, WTF.0 -
Reflection on tonights Yougov result.MikeSmithson said:0 -
If the Tories are only 8 seats ahead of Labour and the SNP are expected to get 35-40 seats it doesn't look too bad for the left. The most worrying thing is the Tory momentum, if slight, and how this talk of a Labour/SNP deal could bother people. It's very easy to say that Miliband should rule out a deal with the SNP. But what if a majority isn't possible otherwise? Are we supposed to go without a government? Or would we have a grand coalition with Cameron as the incumbent remaining as Prime minister?0
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I think they half-dodged a bullet in truth. It read terribly for Taguri, but Danny Alexander and Lord Fox both stay well within the lines. Lord Fox even "urged some of the guests to put their head “above the parapet” by donating above the £7,500 limit", which can hardly be said to suggest he was advising people to get around the limit. And Danny Alexander doesn't seem to have done anything beyond being wheeled out to butter up a donor a bit.GIN1138 said:Telegraph expose sounding very, very bad for the Lib-Dems...
So the story is bad, but the party can keep the damage limited mostly to a single person. They tough it out for now, and if the story catches on they can ditch him and kill it in its tracks. It has no legs beyond Taguri.
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https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/575782961490100224
I presume this has focus group'ed the c##p out of it, because the obviously people are going to be firing incoming.0 -
Could be. We often seem to see a Wed/Thu Lab Swing-Back with YouGov...compouter2 said:
Reflection on tonights Yougov result.MikeSmithson said:
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That simply isn't so - I checked their website prices before my post at 10:02pm and I've checked it again just now at 10:22pm. On both occasions they were showing the Tories 10 seats ahead of Labour.MikeSmithson said:
You are not following this. The CON lead has fluctuated a fair bit between 8 and 10 over past two days. Indeed it has now edged back to 8. The panel above is being updated in real time.peter_from_putney said:Thread Header: "CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets"
In fact Sporting have had the Tories 10 seats ahead of Labour for some time, but as I pointed out yesterday, they evidently can't be bothered to update their prices on their PB.com advertising ..... sloppy.
Your comments about SPIN are wrong.
Contrary to your claim, their PB.com continurs to show the Tories only 8 seats ahead - this is NOT being updated in real time!0 -
Polly will go ballistic!FrancisUrquhart said:https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/575782961490100224
I presume this has focus group'ed the c##p out of it, because the obviously people are going to be firing incoming.
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Er...when are we ever "back on thread"?0
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@FrankBooth
Only coalitions with the Conservatives are allowed because the country needs stability!
If anybody else has a chance to do so, it is immoral.0 -
@paulwaugh: It's official. No10 spksmn, asked if PM now rules out head to head TV debate with Miliband:"Yes. Final offer means final offer"0
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Indeed. Absolutely bonkers. I am slightly mollified by this:SeanT said:This new divorce settlement law is just fecking nuts. Can we argue about THAT rather JC?
You have sex 30 years ago, have a baby, break up, she takes the child. But the woman can come back 30 years later and make claims on money you made long long after you last saw her?
WTF. Just, WTF.
the £1.9m payout she had hoped to secure was too high an amount.
"It is obvious, even at this stage, that an award approaching that size is out of the question," [Lord Wilson} said.
"Her claim may even be dismissed.
But it defies reason, I would suggest, to say it is even reasonable, given all the money was made after the divorce, that
"But there is, in our opinion, a real prospect that she will secure a comparatively modest award, perhaps of a size which would enable her to purchase a somewhat more comfortable, mortgage-free home.
presumably because
Lord Wilson said Ms Wyatt, who lived in Lowestoft, Suffolk, Sunderland and the Forest of Dean, had raised her son through "16 years of real hardship".
Um, without wishing to be mean about it, if she wanted not to live in that hardship the pair could have remained married, she could have married someone wealthier, or even she could have earned more wealth herself. Why now, after all this time, does she deserve a mortgage free home? It's not as though the child needs a home to be raised in now either.
Insanity, pure insanity. No time limit at all on claims, no matter how weak the case may be? Sure it says the claim might be dismissed, but it would seem fairer on all parties not to drag out such ridiculously weak cases in the courts and instead set that time limit.
http://m.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-gloucestershire-318323920 -
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell
At least #Everton are still in Europe, the last remaining British team...
English prem,what a joke.0 -
@MarqueeMark
Plot? Plot? Wherefore art thou plot?0 -
Paul Waugh @paulwaugh
It's official. No10 spksmn, asked if PM now rules out head to head TV debate with Miliband:"Yes. Final offer means final offer"
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I got stuck into the 1-3 from Skybet recently.peter_from_putney said:
Danny Alexander has been virtually certain to lose his Inverness seat by a considerable measure for quite some time now. One only has to look at the bookies' odds to realise the impossible mountain he has to climb.Pulpstar said:
LOLTheScreamingEagles said:Lib Dem Scandal on the front page of the Telegraph. I reckon this means Danny Alexander is going to lose his seat in May
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_2QTmCU8AAoYfa.jpg0 -
BBC better dust off the old empty seat....Scott_P said:@paulwaugh: It's official. No10 spksmn, asked if PM now rules out head to head TV debate with Miliband:"Yes. Final offer means final offer"
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@SunPolitics: YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%0
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Damn, Mirror doesn't even defend itself against |Gascoigne.
You know, I'm a Rangers fan, loved Gazza playing for us, thought he was an amazing player. But always got disappointed since. This might not explain things to everyone. But I think it explains it enough for me.
The Labour rag should be shut down and the Labour Party needs to accept it's culpability for it's party rag.0 -
Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 7s 7 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%0 -
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%0
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I don't take notice of polls!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Tonights YG - EICIPM0
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Oh my.
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Redherd incoming....0
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Basil???0
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Gold standard status revoked.0
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On the face of it, it does not seem that unreasonable for someone who fathers a child to share his money with said child and the person who brought it up for him.SeanT said:
I know, and, yep, it's still nuts.FrancisUrquhart said:
They had a lawyer on BBC early and it is a little bit more complex than being reported (it appears the old hippies didn't do the divorce properly and in full), but its still nuts.SeanT said:This new divorce settlement law is just fecking nuts. Can we argue about THAT rather JC?
You have sex 30 years ago, have a baby, break up, she takes the child. But the woman can come back 30 years later and make claims on money you made long long after you last saw her?
WTF. Just, WTF.
It is the reductio ad absurdam of feminist-driven jurisprudence. Sleep with a man, have a baby, take child, then 30 years later demand a chunk of the money he earned BY HIMSELF decades after he last saw you.
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Boo! Come on YouGov, Labour need to panic to make this interesting, and while they won't like such slender leads, and both effectively being pretty much tied with each other it seems, they do still know that could be enough. They shouldn't be resting on that, but after so long in the lead, and still having leads this close to the end date, they need a whole weak of being behind to make this entertaining.GIN1138 said:Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 7s 7 seconds ago
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead by one: CON 34%, LAB 35%, LD 7%, UKIP 14%, GRN 5%0 -
If we go up 3% more we are on 37!!0
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Time to wake Basil up and get him back to work:
http://slummysinglemummy.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/04/crying-squirrel1.jpg0 -
Front page of the FT will cheer you upScrapheap_as_was said:Redherd incoming....
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I've dumped to zero on Lab seats & votes on the basis Ed is definitely the PM or there is a Labour minority Gov't if that's the case.0
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Unintentionally hilarious moment on the News before, from some museum spokesman speaking out against "selfie sticks" (some kind of metal rods which people hold out with a phone on to take pictures of themselves).
"We're worried that these metal rods might poke someone in the eye - or, even worse, damage a painting"0 -
And she couldn't make a claim 20 years ago because? A time limit does not seem unreasonable to me, given the child no longer needs bringing up.SouthamObserver said:
On the face of it, it does not seem that unreasonable for someone who fathers a child to share his money with said child and the person who brought it up for him.SeanT said:
I know, and, yep, it's still nuts.FrancisUrquhart said:
They had a lawyer on BBC early and it is a little bit more complex than being reported (it appears the old hippies didn't do the divorce properly and in full), but its still nuts.SeanT said:This new divorce settlement law is just fecking nuts. Can we argue about THAT rather JC?
You have sex 30 years ago, have a baby, break up, she takes the child. But the woman can come back 30 years later and make claims on money you made long long after you last saw her?
WTF. Just, WTF.
It is the reductio ad absurdam of feminist-driven jurisprudence. Sleep with a man, have a baby, take child, then 30 years later demand a chunk of the money he earned BY HIMSELF decades after he last saw you.0 -
:-)Tykejohnno said:
Ian Birrell @ianbirrell
At least #Everton are still in Europe, the last remaining British team...
English prem,what a joke.0 -
I think it was all down to Justine Thornton, or Miliband, or whatever we call her, doing human.0
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Justine Thornton becomes new Labour leader!
LAB go 15% clear!!0
