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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » CON moves back to a 10 seat lead on the SPIN spread markets
Clearly the run of bad polls for Labour is taking its toll and adding to Tory confidence. We are now on three consecutive Tory leads. If we get to four then it will be the best for the blue team since the 2012 budget.
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10% next week
Welcome back, Ave It. Good to see you on.
I would talk about the Grand Prix but it looks like there is no motor discussion on this thread!
Apart from Hodge's hypocrisy and self-righteousness, what really irks me is that, having gone through the Islington experience, she - of all people - should have understood how things can go wrong and how even senior/experienced and - let us be charitable - well-meaning people can get things wrong.
That understanding can and should have informed her approach to similar scandals elsewhere. Not in the sense of letting other people off the hook but in the sense of trying to come up with changes/improvements which have a real chance of making things better, informed by her own experiences. But that would require her to accept that she did wrong and really really learn from what went wrong. And that level of what I would call repentance - rather than remorse - which is superficial requires a level of self-knowledge and humility, which seems entirely absent in her.
And it is a pity because the lashing of HSBC turned into a performance rather than into something potentially useful.
People make mistakes. It's whether they learn from them and how they react to them which is measure of them. On that measure, Hodge has failed. The hypocrisy is merely the icing on the cake.
Some poor sods who answer the phone and do the mail are going to be deluged by nutters.
Even assuming a slight Tory lead - and probably to add to all the excitement we'll find that Labour are 5% ahead tonight - it still likely means that Labour will form the next government. So no real change from what has been likely for the last 3 years or so.
It sometimes feels as if the Tories think that because they find EdM unimaginably awful they simply cannot imagine how anyone can possibly vote Labour. That lack of imagination about why (a) people might not vote Tory - despite what the Tories think of as their own superior competence; and/or (b) people might vote Labour is a big failing.
It tends to turn into a "But the voters cannot be / won't be that stupid, surely!" rant, which is not tremendously attractive.
Or did I make the same mistake as @Ave_it?
"Some poor sods are going to be deluged by nutters"
But it does mean there will be fewer on PB?
It's an ill wind as they say?
I know an old joke on that theme, but I will spare everyone for the moment.
Which recorded them...........
Great
Gene pool?
No one, Lab or Con, has been so poorly rated and won.
There isn't a big enough tribe to support such a lowly regarded leader.
Well he launched into how crap Ed is, how he doesn't want anything to do with SNP or the EU, how we need a strong leader to stand up to Russia and definitely not scrap trident and that it was great news Osborne was cutting beer tax and that petrol prices where down....but he finished his rant with well as I told the UNITE bloke on the phone I am a working man, a union man, so who do you think I will vote for, not the f##king Tories.
It doesn't require a majority to win an election, a plurality leading to a majority coalition is a type of win. The only type most PR nations ever face.
Saudi Evens
Bahrain 6-4
Cash payers only.
The PM is the one who won.
Just because no-one has been so poorly rated and won does not mean that this might not happen - for the first time - this time.
Electoral laws are hardly the laws of physics.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/scotland/top-stories/rangers-director-chris-graham-in-mohammed-tweet-probe-1-3716522
Sometimes it is safer to troll under an assumed name.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/tories-creep-ahead-of-labour-for-the-first-time-in-three-years-in-latest-poll-of-polls-10101519.html
Smarmeron said:
@TCPoliticalBetting
Clarkson is selfish, full of his own importance and expects everything handed to him on a silver platter. And you think he "may" be a Tory?
#beardefecation
@Smarmeron
Says you who calls someone thick on here and then tells them not to bother posting to you because they not up to your standard.
The BBC put a quiz up about entrepreneurs. But you could only win if you were a "dishonest".
http://www.businesszone.co.uk/blogs/chrisgoodfellow/deputy/take-bbc-kids-quiz-suggests-entrepreneurs-are-dishonest
It was subsequently removed after complaints; the fact that it went up at all tells you what is wrong with the BBC.
Seems rather pertinent.
Both Cameron and Clegg deserve credit accordingly.
And does this mean no-one ever wins an election in countries with PR?
And - hang on - don't you like to say that UKIP won the Euros, when they got a full 10% fewer votes than did the Conservatives in 2010?
Calling some on here thick is the most I can get away with, but if it is any consolation, have a look at some of the things I get called.
As for stopping people replying? nope, it destroys the entertainment.
You appear to be coagulating nicely though.
What enrages the lefties beyond belief is that Clarkson is funny, and they have thought since the 80s that they own comedy. Their picture of the future is Ben Elton yelling FATCHAA at an audience in Hampstead, forever.
Oh, and that people in white vans with England flags in the window are the sort of people who find Clarkson funny.
And, Smarmie, "Clarkson may be a tory" is in this context a concession - it doesn't, to anyone who knows how the English language works, imply a doubt on the part of the speaker. cf for example "ed miliband may be leader of the Labour party, but he's as much use as the tits on a bull". Don't, for God's sake, try to be clever at other peoples' expense.
I will stick to being clever with you then, the exchange rate is superb.
We’ll back the party that scraps the bedroom tax - In a hung parliament, Northern Ireland’s DUP will back whoever prioritises defence, social justice and beefs up UK border controls
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/mar/11/tories-labour-democratic-unionist-support
I will take your inane rambling under advisement Tyke.
The BBC are out to get Clarkson IMHO.. frankly I couldn't give a toss if they do. Bring it on, it just means the demise of the BBC will be even quicker. Clarkson will just move to another platform taking his team with him.
The BBC are far too busy spouting equality lefty bi/gay transgender whatever to realise what is going on in the real world..
In the latest News, the BBC has stopped quoting how many signatures Clarkson petition has on the front page , you have to hit the link to find out... and that number is miles behind,... tick tock.
But given how rubbish EdM appears to be - and I don't think he is quite as all rubbish as that - Labour have been in the lead for quite a long time and are in with a pretty good chance of forning the next government. That may be down to the Labour brand, hatred of the Tories, a desire not to have austerity, inertia, whatever. But - especially given that the much predicted implosion post-defeat and Brown's departure didn't happen - to be in that position is no mean feat.
Hubris and complacency will - if they are not careful - be the Tories' undoing. They seem to me to have more of a mountain to climb. They need to avoid any Sheffield rally moments too. The ability of the Tories to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory should not be underestimated.
I fear some PBers are determined to be banned.
No.
The Beeb could recruit a new team from the denizens of PB?
Think of the chemistry that could be achieved?
(possibly advanced nuclear fission as well with the right choices)
Obviously it is, as you say, a bit previous to be getting previous about things. On the other hand, I look at miliband these days and I think "is there enough popcorn in the world to see us through till May?"
Fission is "easy". It's fusion that's the hard one.
Pleeeeease don't tell on me.
Fish in a barrel.
Did people think the Pub Landlord character secretly reflected his views or something?
I hope it is another Tory lead. They've had a few and confidence is up a bit as we see, but I wouldn't count it as sustained yet, so we haven't really seen proper Tory overconfidence or Labour panic, despite spread markets and the like. Labour need to be behind for a bit longer before they start to get entertainingly panicked, or the Tories entertainingly gloating (even though, as Cyclefree points out, they have reason to remain cautious about their chances even so)
#aveit
Any sort of coming together of the minds on PB would take an infinite energy input, and thus not be viable.
http://i100.independent.co.uk/article/jeremy-clarkson-is-a-legend-and-its-the-bbcs-fault-anyway
@GdnPolitics: Mandelson undermines Ed Miliband stance on mansion tax and TV debates http://t.co/AWUjKzge0q
If labour do the same in May I will quite happily say they've won as well.
Few seriously welcome it, but like it or not, our politics become more "presidential" every election.
Better by twitter > e-mail.
Daily Record v The Sun's use of mocked up photo of Sturgeon and wrecking ball and tartan bikini.
F1: I think Sauber will make a Van Der Garde decision [or it might be their appeal] late tonight, so tomorrow we may know just what they're doing regarding their drivers in Australia.
Sort of reminds me of the quiz question "What was the tallest mountain before Everest was discovered?"
(Actually Everest is neither the tallest (bottom to top - Mauna Kea) or highest (furthest away from the centre of the earth - Chimborazo) mountain on earth (and is dwarfed by olympus mons on Mars)) It IS the highest above sea level.
Move over Bojo! The next Conservative leader in waiting?