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edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the debates

Latest @LadPolitics odds on whether a debate involving at least Dave & Ed will take place

http://t.co/hyfbkvi3BO pic.twitter.com/2iLMfALAAz

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  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,734
    edited March 2015
    Just spotted the latest person to confirm for the debates,

    http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-620/h--/q-95/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/2/28/1425144955964/5d9210db-2b5c-4be8-b1e1-f95f9dabbd22-620x372.jpeg
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited March 2015
    He gets it

    @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    Tom Lubbock @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    All about the budget - needs to address income tax, not pasties.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    Tom Lubbock @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    All about the budget - needs to address income tax, not pasties.
    The Times have an excellent story on the budget.

    Labour absolutely bricking it.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband is prepared to take part in a head to head debate on his own says @LucyMPowell #wato

    How bizarre - Talking to oneself is not a debate; it’s a psychosis…!
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    FPT:
    dugarbandier said:



    the UK is also making hefty profits selling arms to those fans of discreet non-youtube beheading in Saudi, aren't they?

    Indigo said:



    I think we should speak softly there, our intelligence partners talk about Londistan for a reason.

    Oh, I couldn't agree with you both more -we are up to our necks. I was simply stating it is hard to be grateful for a few headline grabbing nasties like Abu Hamza falling foul of the US legal system when that same country arguably created and undoubtedly sustains the entire organism that means this happens.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited March 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    But it's not as easy of Cameron deciding on April 7th that infact he is "up" for a debate afterall.

    There has to planning and preparation.

    I would think we'll hear from the Broadcasters within the next week one way or another whether the debates are happening - Can't see this "will it won't it" situation going much beyond mid-March.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Richard Rogers retweeted
    UKIPSupporter ‏@SuffolkCoast15 26m26 minutes ago
    @Nigel_Farage just reached an audience of thousands of women who watch @loosewomen and I feel he probably won over many brilliant move
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    It would be ironic if after all the wriggling, his spin doctors and pollsters informed him that the debates were his only chance of power, and that he needed to get into them fast.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    Just what I need now; a @loosewoman. :D
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)

    Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,095
    MikeK said:

    Richard Rogers retweeted
    UKIPSupporter ‏@SuffolkCoast15 26m26 minutes ago
    @Nigel_Farage just reached an audience of thousands of women who watch @loosewomen and I feel he probably won over many brilliant move

    Whoohoo!

    But sadly, now watch the MSM smear machine swing into action and some future confected UKIP race scandal to be discussed at length on the same show.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    lol!

    One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)

    Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
    You forgot crossover.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    @Cyclefree FPT

    Why is my good name being sullied in connection with this ancient miscreant?

    Anyway, important information.....

    Most of the firms are NRNB for Cheltenham now. The Champion Hurdle is the straight eight and they'll pay out 1/4 odds on the first three even if one withdraws. The New One is going backwards and the Fly won't beat Jezki around Cheltenham. It's been specifically trained all year for this one race. It may not beat Faugheen and Arctic Fire is a real danger at big odds but I cannot see Jezki being out of the first three and it may well win again. (Personally I think Faugheen's jumping is less than totally convincing but I may be proved wrong.)

    Back it at 89/2 now. It will be shorter on the day.

    You going?

  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    He's unlikely to be in a winning position but could be around 290-300 seats estimate. If so even with LDs onside he'd barely have a majority. The awkward squad would have him over a barrel.

    I don't envisage it being that different for Miliband. 75% of his candidates against trident renewal being an obvious one to watch.
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    Just what I need now; a @loosewoman. :D


    Glad to see you have fully recovered after your short break MrK ; )
  • Hengists_Gift
    Hengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    And all the legal wrangles from left out parties and delaying tactics from Labour (who presumably will be in a 'winning' position) will start . The election will have taken place before those can be sorted out. The debates will not take place now. This is all just posturing for the media.

    Cameron can't just change his mind, snap his fingers and think everyone's going to jump? Its more likely he'll get two fingered salutes and a good deal of raucous laughter aimed at him.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    lol!

    One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.

    What are you thoughts on Shadsy's odds on the debates, I've been staring at them for the past hour trying to work what to do.
  • Eastwinger
    Eastwinger Posts: 356
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    lol!

    One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.

    What are you thoughts on Shadsy's odds on the debates, I've been staring at them for the past hour trying to work what to do.
    He's got them spot on.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,734
    edited March 2015
    You have to commend BBC on managing to do a 10 mins special report on R5 in regards to just how bad the state of the Ambulance Service in Wales without one single mention of who actually runs the show...it really is rather impressive.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Cyclefree FPT

    Why is my good name being sullied in connection with this ancient miscreant?

    Anyway, important information.....

    Most of the firms are NRNB for Cheltenham now. The Champion Hurdle is the straight eight and they'll pay out 1/4 odds on the first three even if one withdraws. The New One is going backwards and the Fly won't beat Jezki around Cheltenham. It's been specifically trained all year for this one race. It may not beat Faugheen and Arctic Fire is a real danger at big odds but I cannot see Jezki being out of the first three and it may well win again. (Personally I think Faugheen's jumping is less than totally convincing but I may be proved wrong.)

    Back it at 89/2 now. It will be shorter on the day.

    You going?

    Thanks Peter, I backed The New One ante-post last year at 6s so Jezki at 9-2 is a nice compliment to that.

    Faugheen has looked great but he hasn't ran against the calibre of the Fly, Jezki or The New One. Doubt he will be able to dominate at any rate.
  • JWisemann
    JWisemann Posts: 1,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)

    Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
    You forgot crossover.
    Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    lol!

    One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.

    What are you thoughts on Shadsy's odds on the debates, I've been staring at them for the past hour trying to work what to do.
    I don't think the debates will happen, never have done, but I'm not sure I'd want to bet on it.


    If you've been looking at it that long, it's definitely 'no bet'.
  • JWisemann
    JWisemann Posts: 1,082
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    TGOHF said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    He gets it

    Tom Lubbock @tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely

    All about the budget - needs to address income tax, not pasties.
    The Times have an excellent story on the budget.

    Labour absolutely bricking it.
    Except it isn't a Conservative budget and presumably the Lib Dems won't sign off on anything that will give the Tories any partisan advantage in their mutual battlegrounds
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    lol!

    One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.

    What are you thoughts on Shadsy's odds on the debates, I've been staring at them for the past hour trying to work what to do.
    I don't think the debates will happen, never have done, but I'm not sure I'd want to bet on it.


    If you've been looking at it that long, it's definitely 'no bet'.
    Yep the Champion Hurdle is an easier puzzle laying a decent favourite who is a bit short in the betting.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    If we can't have the debates then something similar to this wouldn't be a bad idea.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JZlP5qQVtE
  • JonnyJimmy
    JonnyJimmy Posts: 2,548
    Just noticed Shadsy has adjusted his GE most votes market; Con tighten to 4/11 (from 2/5), Lab ease out to 9/4 from 2/1.

    Also has Lab O/U back up at 269.5, SNP 41.5

    And he appears to have put constituency markets back up
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    @Cyclefree FPT

    Why is my good name being sullied in connection with this ancient miscreant?

    Anyway, important information.....

    Most of the firms are NRNB for Cheltenham now. The Champion Hurdle is the straight eight and they'll pay out 1/4 odds on the first three even if one withdraws. The New One is going backwards and the Fly won't beat Jezki around Cheltenham. It's been specifically trained all year for this one race. It may not beat Faugheen and Arctic Fire is a real danger at big odds but I cannot see Jezki being out of the first three and it may well win again. (Personally I think Faugheen's jumping is less than totally convincing but I may be proved wrong.)

    Back it at 89/2 now. It will be shorter on the day.

    You going?

    Thanks Peter, I backed The New One ante-post last year at 6s so Jezki at 9-2 is a nice compliment to that.

    Faugheen has looked great but he hasn't ran against the calibre of the Fly, Jezki or The New One. Doubt he will be able to dominate at any rate.
    Jezki was my best winner of the Festival last year, but I'm not putting him up out of sentiment.

    It's an easier race this year - no depth, and questions over all the leading candidates, except Jezki.

    Btw, I meant 9/2 of course...although 89/2 would be nice!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Having said all this I backed "Our Connor" last year in the Champ >< - hopefully nothing like that happens this time.

    SPs:

    Faugheen 5-6
    Jezki 9-4
    TNO 9-2
    Hurricane Fly 8s
    Arctic Fire 8s

    Something like that. Going to be some enormous bets on Faugheen I reckon.


  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    SimonStClare said:

    @BBCNormanS: Ed Miliband is prepared to take part in a head to head debate on his own says @LucyMPowell #wato

    How bizarre - Talking to oneself is not a debate; it’s a psychosis…!

    Meh, its what he's been doing for the last five years.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    FrankBooth said:

    If we can't have the debates then something similar to this wouldn't be a bad idea.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JZlP5qQVtE

    Wasn't Thatcher recently vindicated on this?
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    Apparently broadcasters are discussing going ahead with the debates, sending out formal invites and empty chairing anyone who does not want to attend. They are not happy being dictated to by the current PM, as if they agreed to Camerons ultimatum, it could set a precedent for future elections. In a democracy it is not up to the current PM to decide what debates take place.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    JWisemann said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)

    Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
    You forgot crossover.
    Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
    When this graph is updated either today or tomorrow;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    We should see crossover confirmed...
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @BannedinParis
    Twatter is not always the best source for quotations.....but you all knew that didn't you?

    "Asked how voters will be able to judge Mr Cameron if the debate takes place before the Conservative manifesto is published, Grant Shapps says "people will have a pretty good idea by the end of this month what the different parties want to do". Lucy Powell says Ed Miliband would turn up to the "head-to-head" debate alone, but says he does not want to."
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Pulpstar said:

    Having said all this I backed "Our Connor" last year in the Champ >< - hopefully nothing like that happens this time.

    SPs:

    Faugheen 5-6
    Jezki 9-4
    TNO 9-2
    Hurricane Fly 8s
    Arctic Fire 8s

    Something like that. Going to be some enormous bets on Faugheen I reckon.


    The bookies will take Faugheen on, and Annie Power, but not Un De Seaux.

    I'd have TNO much bigger than that, and Jezki a shade shorter.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Clint Eastwood talked to an empty chair (representing President Obama) at the Republican National Convention and ended up looking like a right berk. I hope someone has mentioned this to Ed.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    hucks67 said:

    In a democracy it is not up to the current PM to decide what debates take place.

    It's up to Sky and the BBC then, is it?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @Shadsy has gone top price in every single Labour seat for Edinburgh. In the case of Edinburgh SouthWest forming a massively arbable 82% book with Hills on SNP/Labour.

    That tells you all you need to know.
  • MarkHopkins
    MarkHopkins Posts: 5,584
    RobD said:

    FrankBooth said:

    If we can't have the debates then something similar to this wouldn't be a bad idea.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JZlP5qQVtE

    Wasn't Thatcher recently vindicated on this?
    Yes.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    glw said:

    Clint Eastwood talked to an empty chair (representing President Obama) at the Republican National Convention and ended up looking like a right berk. I hope someone has mentioned this to Ed.

    Nobody will be empty-chaired. It would be insulting.

    There is a possibility of minor debates. Ed v Nick is the obvious one, although I understand they don't get on, so maybe even that is a problem.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Huck 67..In a democracy it is up to the PM to decide if he,or anyone else, wishes to take part in a TV debate.Thats the meaning of the word
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    hucks67 said:

    Apparently broadcasters are discussing going ahead with the debates, sending out formal invites and empty chairing anyone who does not want to attend. They are not happy being dictated to by the current PM, as if they agreed to Camerons ultimatum, it could set a precedent for future elections. In a democracy it is not up to the current PM to decide what debates take place.

    Frankly I'd rather watch the Kardashians.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Having said all this I backed "Our Connor" last year in the Champ >< - hopefully nothing like that happens this time.

    SPs:

    Faugheen 5-6
    Jezki 9-4
    TNO 9-2
    Hurricane Fly 8s
    Arctic Fire 8s

    Something like that. Going to be some enormous bets on Faugheen I reckon.


    The bookies will take Faugheen on, and Annie Power, but not Un De Seaux.

    I'd have TNO much bigger than that, and Jezki a shade shorter.
    Haha Yes just seen the prices on Un De Sceaux. I'm annoyed at missing out on him when he was announced for the Arkle as I was following him but didn't have a clue where Mullins would run him. 8-13 is too short for a 16 runner race now at any rate.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    @Shadsy has gone top price in every single Labour seat for Edinburgh. In the case of Edinburgh SouthWest forming a massively arbable 82% book with Hills on SNP/Labour.

    That tells you all you need to know.

    Personally I think he's gone a bit too far. But arb away regardless!
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Pulpstar said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Having said all this I backed "Our Connor" last year in the Champ >< - hopefully nothing like that happens this time.

    SPs:

    Faugheen 5-6
    Jezki 9-4
    TNO 9-2
    Hurricane Fly 8s
    Arctic Fire 8s

    Something like that. Going to be some enormous bets on Faugheen I reckon.


    The bookies will take Faugheen on, and Annie Power, but not Un De Seaux.

    I'd have TNO much bigger than that, and Jezki a shade shorter.
    Haha Yes just seen the prices on Un De Sceaux. I'm annoyed at missing out on him when he was announced for the Arkle as I was following him but didn't have a clue where Mullins would run him. 8-13 is too short for a 16 runner race now at any rate.
    For fun you could do the forecast. I think they will run Vibrato Valtat for second place.
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited March 2015
    The broadcasters couldn't sell a Clegg/Miliband debate, the leader of the opposition versus the leader of the junior partner of the coalition doesn't have a ring to it. There'd be nothing for Labour to gain from it either due to the current massive swings in Lib/Lab seats.

    Instead of a head to head, go back to a four party debate with the Conservatives invited. It'd then be up to Cameron whether he'd want to see his three main rivals given the opportunity to set out their stall a week before the election on prime time TV without him.
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @MikeK

    'Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?'

    Yes, Farage U-turn on his 50,000 annual immigration cap.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Smarmeron said:

    @BannedinParis
    Twatter is not always the best source for quotations.....but you all knew that didn't you?

    "Asked how voters will be able to judge Mr Cameron if the debate takes place before the Conservative manifesto is published, Grant Shapps says "people will have a pretty good idea by the end of this month what the different parties want to do". Lucy Powell says Ed Miliband would turn up to the "head-to-head" debate alone, but says he does not want to."

    He'd lose.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Re the debates - didn't the broadcasters originally say they would go ahead even if anyone doesn't turn up.

    I agree they won't put an empty chair as that would look childish but I would have thought they would simply say "1st debate is on ITV on 2nd April - as scheduled - seven people invited - if anyone doesn't turn up we will remove their lectern".

    Why wouldn't they do that? I think it'll happen. And Cameron will probably attend.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Tissue_Price said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @Shadsy has gone top price in every single Labour seat for Edinburgh. In the case of Edinburgh SouthWest forming a massively arbable 82% book with Hills on SNP/Labour.

    That tells you all you need to know.

    Personally I think he's gone a bit too far. But arb away regardless!
    Improved my odds on the SNP ;)
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    So if there aren't going to be debates or if it's one maximum, I ask again, what sort of election campaign do people think we'll have or would people like to see? Cameron said the debates sucked the life out of the campaign last time. Fine. So what sort of campaign does he want?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    I have been in Israel for the last 8 days, and the only new thing I saw was a battery powered bicycle. These apparently are normal bikes with a strengthened back wheel on which was attached the battery, motor and power brake attachments. They are everywhere in Tel-Aviv, the cyclists heaven, as they ride without effort among the crowded pavements.

    I haven't seen one back in London yet, although no doubt they will appear.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Artist said:



    Instead of a head to head, go back to a four party debate with the Conservatives invited. It'd then be up to Cameron whether he'd want to see his three main rivals given the opportunity to set out their stall a week before the election on prime time TV without him.

    But then you'd have legal challenges, certainly from the SNP and probably from the Greens.

    Broadcasters would win, I suspect, but not before time ran out...
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    glw said:

    Clint Eastwood talked to an empty chair (representing President Obama) at the Republican National Convention and ended up looking like a right berk. I hope someone has mentioned this to Ed.

    Nobody will be empty-chaired. It would be insulting.

    There is a possibility of minor debates. Ed v Nick is the obvious one, although I understand they don't get on, so maybe even that is a problem.
    It's more than insulting: it's highly risky.

    Let's say the Beeb empty-chairs Cameron.

    And, somehow, Cameron still ends up as Prime Minister. And probably thoroughly irritated with the Beeb.

    Remind me, when's the Charter renewal due?
  • hucks67
    hucks67 Posts: 758
    richardDodd said:

    Huck 67..In a democracy it is up to the PM to decide if he,or anyone else, wishes to take part in a TV debate.Thats the meaning of the word

    Cameron is a chicken for being too afraid to face Miliband. It should never be up to a PM to decide on debates.

    The debates should happen as the broadcasters have suggested.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited March 2015
    FrankBooth said:

    So if there aren't going to be debates or if it's one maximum, I ask again, what sort of election campaign do people think we'll have or would people like to see? Cameron said the debates sucked the life out of the campaign last time. Fine. So what sort of campaign does he want?

    Very similar to most of the other campaigns before 2010.

    Leaders doing lot's of morning pressers, touring the country in "battle buses" pitching up at market towns, schoolsandhospitals and key marginals for an hour or two, running the gauntlet in Scotland at least once and no doubt being interviewed by Paxman, Newsnight, doing Question Time, etc...
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    JWisemann said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Pulpstar said:

    MikeK said:

    FPT.

    Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away? ;)

    Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
    You forgot crossover.
    Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
    http://may2015.com/

    Tories currently 1 point ahead - 5 day weighted av. poll of polls. New Statesman website.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    weejonnie said:



    He'd lose.


    Well, yes. Exactly.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    Charles said:

    Peter_the_Punter said:

    glw said:

    Clint Eastwood talked to an empty chair (representing President Obama) at the Republican National Convention and ended up looking like a right berk. I hope someone has mentioned this to Ed.

    Nobody will be empty-chaired. It would be insulting.

    There is a possibility of minor debates. Ed v Nick is the obvious one, although I understand they don't get on, so maybe even that is a problem.
    It's more than insulting: it's highly risky.

    Let's say the Beeb empty-chairs Cameron.

    And, somehow, Cameron still ends up as Prime Minister. And probably thoroughly irritated with the Beeb.

    Remind me, when's the Charter renewal due?
    Absolutely.

    You can't have a major publicly-funded organisation insulting the PM. But it's academic. Won't happen.
  • Meic
    Meic Posts: 1
    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Cognitive dissonance on the SNP:

    SNP

    But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.

    No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.

    Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”

    That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    edited March 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remembers 1918.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remember 1918.
    JackW does.
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Huck 67.. So you are seriously suggesting the PM of the country of whatever hue,should scurry around to a TV studio when called upon to do so..really..
    You are in the wrong country old boy.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    hucks67 said:

    richardDodd said:

    Huck 67..In a democracy it is up to the PM to decide if he,or anyone else, wishes to take part in a TV debate.Thats the meaning of the word

    Cameron is a chicken for being too afraid to face Miliband. It should never be up to a PM to decide on debates.

    The debates should happen as the broadcasters have suggested.
    The media should report the political weather.

    They shouldn't seek to shape it.

    Offering a debate is fine.

    If the parties can't agree a format, then the broadcasters shouldn't impose one.

    (I can see merit in agreeing a clear set of rules in 2016 for the debates in 2020 so that there are no shenanigans in future)
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    Cognitive dissonance on the SNP:

    SNP

    But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.

    No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.

    Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”

    That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    john_zims said:

    @MikeK

    'Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?'

    Yes, Farage U-turn on his 50,000 annual immigration cap.

    Not a U-turn, just an expansion of how immigration would be treated if UKIP had a say. Sensible checks and balances in play, similar to how Australia does it now.
  • Charles
    Charles Posts: 35,758
    edited March 2015
    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Cognitive dissonance on the SNP:

    SNP

    But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.

    No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.

    Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”

    That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
    swingback....

    :lol:
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remember 1918.
    JackW does.
    You mean 1818, surely?
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2015
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remembers 1918.
    Indeed:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Irish_UK_election_1918.png/350px-Irish_UK_election_1918.png

    Dark Green = SF GAIN
  • shadsy
    shadsy Posts: 289
    @Pulpstar
    I wouldn't place too much faith in Ladbrokes' Scottish seat odds, given the truly abysmal mess I've made of those markets so far.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    What will be this years "Mrs Duffy" moment I wonder?

    Have a feeling if/when it happens it will involve Clegg possibly coming face to face with a student...
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11418931/Top-Labour-official-reveals-why-she-now-supports-Ukip.html

    Why I dumped Miliband's Labour for Ukip: Harriet Yeo
    Harriet Yeo, the former chair of Labour’s ruling body, writes for The Telegraph about why she felt she had to support Ukip at the election
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    I’ve read some very odd comments regarding the debates, but the claim it is undemocratic for an elected PM not to do the bidding of a commercial broadcaster must be one of the daftest.
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    shadsy said:

    @Pulpstar
    I wouldn't place too much faith in Ladbrokes' Scottish seat odds, given the truly abysmal mess I've made of those markets so far.

    If it's any consolation, we're all kicking ourselves that we didn't pile in bigtime during August and September...
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    hucks67 said:

    richardDodd said:

    Huck 67..In a democracy it is up to the PM to decide if he,or anyone else, wishes to take part in a TV debate.Thats the meaning of the word

    Cameron is a chicken for being too afraid to face Miliband. It should never be up to a PM to decide on debates.

    The debates should happen as the broadcasters have suggested.
    This is a ritual conducted according to exact rules. Your playing of the chicken card is correct - here is Hague doing exactly that in 2001:

    Earlier, Mr Hague said Mr Blair's stance showed the prime minister was "a real chicken" who did not dare face the debate "because he knows that without his spin doctors he'd lose".

    The PM's correct response is to ignore the chicken card.

    It's like that thing in fantasy/historical novels where the bloke with an army of 5,000 which has run out of food and arrows says to the bloke with an army of 50,000, which hasn't, "tell you what, let's settle this by single combat".
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    shadsy said:

    @Pulpstar
    I wouldn't place too much faith in Ladbrokes' Scottish seat odds, given the truly abysmal mess I've made of those markets so far.

    You said that about the Indyref but you came up smiling at the end.
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    Tissue_Price said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remembers 1918.
    Indeed:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Irish_UK_election_1918.png/350px-Irish_UK_election_1918.png

    Dark Green = SF GAIN
    Or the early 1880's? - Irish Parliamentary Party
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Meic said:

    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!

    Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    politics.co.uk ‏@Politics_co_uk 5h5 hours ago
    Cameron won't debate because he has no record to defend http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/03/05/cameron-won-t-debate-because-he-has-no-record-to-defend …

    Why would a leader regarded by both his supporters and his detractors as prime ministerial try to avoid TV debates?
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,609
    Tissue_Price said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.

    I see no one remembers 1918.
    Indeed:

    https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Irish_UK_election_1918.png/350px-Irish_UK_election_1918.png

    Dark Green = SF GAIN
    Not entirely true, they had a few seats before...
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053

    Vote UKIP For Change ‏@englishbrand 5h5 hours ago
    Over 13 years one immigrant came into the UK every minute http://dailym.ai/1w4JbqS

    #Labour are a very dangerous security threat to Britain.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    100,000 before next weeks PMQs

    https://www.change.org/p/david-cameron-take-part-in-the-leaders-tv-debates?utm_source=action_alert&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=255311&amp;alert_id=aMmpRHpcVW_9EVXBrZZnFYhCTplW4dtHOaUG2D+8v+353Lh4eqluP4=
  • welshowl
    welshowl Posts: 4,464
    edited March 2015
    MikeK said:

    politics.co.uk ‏@Politics_co_uk 5h5 hours ago
    Cameron won't debate because he has no record to defend http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/03/05/cameron-won-t-debate-because-he-has-no-record-to-defend …

    Why would a leader regarded by both his supporters and his detractors as prime ministerial try to avoid TV debates?

    Because he thinks he has more downside risks than upside possibilities if he does them. He may be right he may be wrong but what matters, in that sense, is what he believes.
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    MikeK said:

    politics.co.uk ‏@Politics_co_uk 5h5 hours ago
    Cameron won't debate because he has no record to defend http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/03/05/cameron-won-t-debate-because-he-has-no-record-to-defend …

    Why would a leader regarded by both his supporters and his detractors as prime ministerial try to avoid TV debates?

    Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "David Cameron: 'I've unblocked the log-jam'"

    and it is running down his legs and filling his shoes :)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    shadsy said:

    @Pulpstar
    I wouldn't place too much faith in Ladbrokes' Scottish seat odds, given the truly abysmal mess I've made of those markets so far.

    I'm hoping to have quite a few losers with you actually on those markets, so may we both smile come May :)
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    bigjohnowls said:

    Meic said:

    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!

    Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
    EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
  • Smarmeron
    Smarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Ishmael_X
    "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "

    So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Meic said:

    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!

    Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
    EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
    You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "

    So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us, we admire him for having the good sense to do so
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    bigjohnowls said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Meic said:

    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!

    Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
    EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
    You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
    I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    ukipwebmaster retweeted
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 2h2 hours ago
    Farage accuses Cameron of sabotaging the #tvdebates in @loosewomen appearance http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-03-05/farage-accuses-cameron-of-sabotaging-tv-debates/ …
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    Stereotomy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "

    So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us, we admire him for having the good sense to do so

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us we are surprised.
  • Indigo
    Indigo Posts: 9,966
    Alanbrooke said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "

    So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us, we admire him for having the good sense to do so

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us we are surprised.
    This is cast-iron no-ifs no-buts Dave we are talking about here, a model of integrity, but the others aren't much better...

    Q: How do you know when a politician is lying
    A: His lips are moving.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Alanbrooke said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Ishmael_X
    "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "

    So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us, we admire him for having the good sense to do so

    The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us we are surprised.
    Nick had the decency to apologise over his tuition fee debacle, even though it's not done him much credit. The list is growing a mile long with Dave.
  • Cyclefree
    Cyclefree Posts: 25,709
    MikeK said:

    I have been in Israel for the last 8 days, and the only new thing I saw was a battery powered bicycle. These apparently are normal bikes with a strengthened back wheel on which was attached the battery, motor and power brake attachments. They are everywhere in Tel-Aviv, the cyclists heaven, as they ride without effort among the crowded pavements.

    I haven't seen one back in London yet, although no doubt they will appear.

    The Cyclefree family have had one for the last two years. Marvellous. Often to be seen out and about in in North and Central London. The dog loves running beside it, as well.

  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Meic said:

    ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!

    Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
    EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
    You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
    I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
    So you defend his behaviour OK think that says a fair bit about you
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