Categories
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the debates
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the debates
Latest @LadPolitics odds on whether a debate involving at least Dave & Ed will take place
http://t.co/hyfbkvi3BO pic.twitter.com/2iLMfALAAz
0
This discussion has been closed.
Comments
http://i.guim.co.uk/static/w-620/h--/q-95/sys-images/Guardian/Pix/pictures/2015/2/28/1425144955964/5d9210db-2b5c-4be8-b1e1-f95f9dabbd22-620x372.jpeg
@tmlbk: Pundits writing off debates arent thinking ahead. By April Cam likely to be in a 'winning' position, or not. If not debates likely
Labour absolutely bricking it.
How bizarre - Talking to oneself is not a debate; it’s a psychosis…!
Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?
There has to planning and preparation.
I would think we'll hear from the Broadcasters within the next week one way or another whether the debates are happening - Can't see this "will it won't it" situation going much beyond mid-March.
UKIPSupporter @SuffolkCoast15 26m26 minutes ago
@Nigel_Farage just reached an audience of thousands of women who watch @loosewomen and I feel he probably won over many brilliant move
It would be ironic if after all the wriggling, his spin doctors and pollsters informed him that the debates were his only chance of power, and that he needed to get into them fast.
But sadly, now watch the MSM smear machine swing into action and some future confected UKIP race scandal to be discussed at length on the same show.
One good toon better than a thousand words. Well done Marf.
Why is my good name being sullied in connection with this ancient miscreant?
Anyway, important information.....
Most of the firms are NRNB for Cheltenham now. The Champion Hurdle is the straight eight and they'll pay out 1/4 odds on the first three even if one withdraws. The New One is going backwards and the Fly won't beat Jezki around Cheltenham. It's been specifically trained all year for this one race. It may not beat Faugheen and Arctic Fire is a real danger at big odds but I cannot see Jezki being out of the first three and it may well win again. (Personally I think Faugheen's jumping is less than totally convincing but I may be proved wrong.)
Back it at 89/2 now. It will be shorter on the day.
You going?
I don't envisage it being that different for Miliband. 75% of his candidates against trident renewal being an obvious one to watch.
Glad to see you have fully recovered after your short break MrK ; )
Cameron can't just change his mind, snap his fingers and think everyone's going to jump? Its more likely he'll get two fingered salutes and a good deal of raucous laughter aimed at him.
Faugheen has looked great but he hasn't ran against the calibre of the Fly, Jezki or The New One. Doubt he will be able to dominate at any rate.
If you've been looking at it that long, it's definitely 'no bet'.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JZlP5qQVtE
Also has Lab O/U back up at 269.5, SNP 41.5
And he appears to have put constituency markets back up
It's an easier race this year - no depth, and questions over all the leading candidates, except Jezki.
Btw, I meant 9/2 of course...although 89/2 would be nice!
SPs:
Faugheen 5-6
Jezki 9-4
TNO 9-2
Hurricane Fly 8s
Arctic Fire 8s
Something like that. Going to be some enormous bets on Faugheen I reckon.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention
We should see crossover confirmed...
Twatter is not always the best source for quotations.....but you all knew that didn't you?
"Asked how voters will be able to judge Mr Cameron if the debate takes place before the Conservative manifesto is published, Grant Shapps says "people will have a pretty good idea by the end of this month what the different parties want to do". Lucy Powell says Ed Miliband would turn up to the "head-to-head" debate alone, but says he does not want to."
I'd have TNO much bigger than that, and Jezki a shade shorter.
That tells you all you need to know.
There is a possibility of minor debates. Ed v Nick is the obvious one, although I understand they don't get on, so maybe even that is a problem.
Instead of a head to head, go back to a four party debate with the Conservatives invited. It'd then be up to Cameron whether he'd want to see his three main rivals given the opportunity to set out their stall a week before the election on prime time TV without him.
'Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?'
Yes, Farage U-turn on his 50,000 annual immigration cap.
I agree they won't put an empty chair as that would look childish but I would have thought they would simply say "1st debate is on ITV on 2nd April - as scheduled - seven people invited - if anyone doesn't turn up we will remove their lectern".
Why wouldn't they do that? I think it'll happen. And Cameron will probably attend.
I haven't seen one back in London yet, although no doubt they will appear.
Broadcasters would win, I suspect, but not before time ran out...
Let's say the Beeb empty-chairs Cameron.
And, somehow, Cameron still ends up as Prime Minister. And probably thoroughly irritated with the Beeb.
Remind me, when's the Charter renewal due?
The debates should happen as the broadcasters have suggested.
Leaders doing lot's of morning pressers, touring the country in "battle buses" pitching up at market towns, schoolsandhospitals and key marginals for an hour or two, running the gauntlet in Scotland at least once and no doubt being interviewed by Paxman, Newsnight, doing Question Time, etc...
Tories currently 1 point ahead - 5 day weighted av. poll of polls. New Statesman website.
Well, yes. Exactly.
You can't have a major publicly-funded organisation insulting the PM. But it's academic. Won't happen.
SNP
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
You are in the wrong country old boy.
They shouldn't seek to shape it.
Offering a debate is fine.
If the parties can't agree a format, then the broadcasters shouldn't impose one.
(I can see merit in agreeing a clear set of rules in 2016 for the debates in 2020 so that there are no shenanigans in future)
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0a/Irish_UK_election_1918.png/350px-Irish_UK_election_1918.png
Dark Green = SF GAIN
I wouldn't place too much faith in Ladbrokes' Scottish seat odds, given the truly abysmal mess I've made of those markets so far.
Have a feeling if/when it happens it will involve Clegg possibly coming face to face with a student...
Why I dumped Miliband's Labour for Ukip: Harriet Yeo
Harriet Yeo, the former chair of Labour’s ruling body, writes for The Telegraph about why she felt she had to support Ukip at the election
Earlier, Mr Hague said Mr Blair's stance showed the prime minister was "a real chicken" who did not dare face the debate "because he knows that without his spin doctors he'd lose".
The PM's correct response is to ignore the chicken card.
It's like that thing in fantasy/historical novels where the bloke with an army of 5,000 which has run out of food and arrows says to the bloke with an army of 50,000, which hasn't, "tell you what, let's settle this by single combat".
Cameron won't debate because he has no record to defend http://www.politics.co.uk/blogs/2015/03/05/cameron-won-t-debate-because-he-has-no-record-to-defend …
Why would a leader regarded by both his supporters and his detractors as prime ministerial try to avoid TV debates?
Vote UKIP For Change @englishbrand 5h5 hours ago
Over 13 years one immigrant came into the UK every minute http://dailym.ai/1w4JbqS
#Labour are a very dangerous security threat to Britain.
https://www.change.org/p/david-cameron-take-part-in-the-leaders-tv-debates?utm_source=action_alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=255311&alert_id=aMmpRHpcVW_9EVXBrZZnFYhCTplW4dtHOaUG2D+8v+353Lh4eqluP4=
and it is running down his legs and filling his shoes
"Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "
So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?
ITV News @itvnews 2h2 hours ago
Farage accuses Cameron of sabotaging the #tvdebates in @loosewomen appearance http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-03-05/farage-accuses-cameron-of-sabotaging-tv-debates/ …
The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us we are surprised.
Q: How do you know when a politician is lying
A: His lips are moving.