@Ishmael_X "Because he can do very, very straightforward risk/reward calculations. "
So all the guff he spouted before the last election was just self serving spin?
The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us, we admire him for having the good sense to do so
The wacky world of PB, where if a politician lies to us we are surprised.
Nick had the decency to apologise over his tuition fee debacle, even though it's not done him much credit. The list is growing a mile long with Dave.
I'm not particularly defending Dave, I'm simply questioning the faux outrage from the partisan crowd that their man would never do the same if it gave him a short term advantage.
ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!
Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
So you defend his behaviour OK think that says a fair bit about you
"His behaviour" you make it sound like he's committed a crime. He is simply politicking for what he views as the most favourable outcome.
ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!
Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
So you defend his behaviour OK think that says a fair bit about you
By that measure given Ed's record you must consider yourself pond slime.
One word in defence of Cameron. He said from the start he wanted TV debates before short campaign. Broadcasters simply ignored him.
The debates did dominate the campaign last time. Though arguably that was a good thing - maybe not for those already politically inclined, but for those who were less engaged.
But let's not pretend the schedule the broadcasters created this time was motivated by a pure desire for democracy to triumph.
ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!
Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
So you defend his behaviour OK think that says a fair bit about you
Don't know what you are talking about. The Prime Minister has put forward positive and constructive proposals for a 7-way debate.
And lighten up, it's not my fault that ed is crap and that Baxter turns out to be not a prediction, and broken anyway.
ed miliband having a debate with himself! The chair would win hands down!!! I think things would have been so different if the right brother had won the leadership!!! RIP Ed!!!
Yet cowardly Cam is Frit of EIC
EIC is frit of annihilation on May 7 and desperate for anything which might turn things round.
You seriously defend Cowardly Cam over his behaviour re the debates?
I am convinced he is motivated by an altruistic desire to spare ed embarrassment.
So you defend his behaviour OK think that says a fair bit about you
Don't know what you are talking about. The Prime Minister has put forward positive and constructive proposals for a 7-way debate.
And lighten up, it's not my fault that ed is crap and that Baxter turns out to be not a prediction, and broken anyway.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
I could see them winning 58. Tactical voting will kill them in Gordon.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
I could see them winning 58. Tactical voting will kill them in Gordon.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
Yeah, for my final SNP bets, I skipped the constituencies and went straight for the 7/1 on 0-5 SLAB seats.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
I don't rule this out (and your point about the dangers of using 2010 weighting in Scotland is important, though "discredited" is slightly over-egging it). Though Orkney & Shetland is going to be a big ask for the SNP.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
I could see them winning 58. Tactical voting will kill them in Gordon.
;-)
Nicola wouldn't mind that result at all
You don't think Eck would love the idea of the "martyr that took on the Unionist attack while everyone else made it" role ?
Margaret Curran on News24 told the message #VoteSNPGetTory isn't working "well I think the message is starting to get across when I'm out on the doorstep".
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
I could see them winning 58. Tactical voting will kill them in Gordon.
;-)
Nicola wouldn't mind that result at all
You don't think Eck would love the idea of the "martyr that took on the Unionist attack while everyone else made it" role ?
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
But this is small fry compared to predictions for the SNP. The PSA’s experts think the party will win 3.8 to 4.7 per cent of the GB-wide vote in May. That would translate into a high-40s/mid-50s vote share in Scotland. If the SNP win that many votes, they will almost certainly win at least 40 seats, and maybe more than 50.
No one thinks the SNP surge will fade, which would mean 40 or 50 – not 29 – seats.
Yet the PSA’s experts predict the party will win just 29. One forecaster recently summarised the way people predict the SNP as “That number looks high. Let’s half it.”
That seems to be what’s happening here. Academics and journalists don’t think the SNP surge will fade before May. But they still can’t believe the party will go from winning 6 seats in 2010 to 40 or 50 in 2015. Understandably – nothing like that has ever happened before in the history of British elections.
On the evidence that we currently have, why would we think that the SNP are likelier to get fewer than 50 seats than more than that number?
It seems to me that the full set is becoming a realistic possibility.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
Yeah, for my final SNP bets, I skipped the constituencies and went straight for the 7/1 on 0-5 SLAB seats.
That bet looks more like 6/4 to me.
Edit: now cut to 4/1. Probably still value.
I got on that at 40 to 1. Someone on here got on at 120 to 1.
This Ashcroft 8,000 poll... does the lack of much talk of it on here indicate its good for Labour & UKIP and bad for the Conservatives?
I was out last night and so only browsed PB quickly, thought I saw 17/18% UKIP? Could be wrong
I don't know what it said. I do think Ashcroft polling is a joke, whatever it says.
Difficult to say as Ashcroft hasn't applied his usual turnout and spiral of silence stuff to it.
It looks fairly consistent with a 0-1% Labour lead [i.e. in line with the industry during the fieldwork period], and I would say it is relatively good for UKIP and poor for LD.
OT. For the first time today I heard something positive about UKIP. Their first MP Douglas Carswell's father was the person Dr Nicolas Carrigan played by James Macavoy in the film 'The Last King of Scotland' was based on. I never read the book but thought it an excellent film and apparently quite an accurate portrayal of Carswell senior so clearly junior will have inherited a few good genes.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
For 8 years he's produced a Balanced Budget AND public appreciation for the government has stayed incredibly high. No electioral sweeties, no segmented bribes. But still very popular, services rated well.
But hey, someone calling him a financial illiterate on a message board is meaningful.
OT. For the first time today I heard something positive about UKIP. Their first MP Douglas Carswell's father was the person Dr Nicolas Carrigan played by James Macavoy in the film 'The Last King of Scotland' was based on. I never read the book but thought it an excellent film and quite an accurate portrayal so clearly Carswell will have inherited a few good genes.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
For 8 years he's produced a Balanced Budget AND public appreciation for the government has stayed incredibly high. No electioral sweeties, no segmented bribes. But still very popular, services rated well.
But hey, someone calling him a financial illiterate on a message board is meaningful.
As meaningful as basing a country's future on a fictitious oil price.
Ms Cyclefree I've had an electric "power-assist" bike for 8-9 years. Very useful for a senior citizen in an area with a few sharp, if short, hills. Sadly balance is a bit dodgy now so haven't got the same degree of confidence.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
OT. For the first time today I heard something positive about UKIP. Their first MP Douglas Carswell's father was the person Dr Nicolas Carrigan played by James Macavoy in the film 'The Last King of Scotland' was based on. I never read the book but thought it an excellent film and quite an accurate portrayal so clearly Carswell will have inherited a few good genes.
Rumblings in the UKIP ranks he's a Sweaty and not a pure bred Englishman.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
Interesting facts about oor Eck. UHe has never lost a constituency election and always increased his majority in every one. In Aberdeenshire East in 2011 he got 65 per cent of the vote in a seat which is at least half of the Gordon Westminster seat. Salmond is going in by a landslide ie at least 50 per cent of the vote.
Ms Cyclefree I've had an electric "power-assist" bike for 8-9 years. Very useful for a senior citizen in an area with a few sharp, if short, hills. Sadly balance is a bit dodgy now so haven't got the same degree of confidence.
When my balance went completely kaput following an ear operation, the otologist prescribed me a wii fit + balance board + snowboarding game.
Half an hour every morning.
Remarkably, it worked. £40 or so off gumtree IIRC. Might be worth trying - if it doesn't work, you can always flog it on for around the same price.
Ms Cyclefree I've had an electric "power-assist" bike for 8-9 years. Very useful for a senior citizen in an area with a few sharp, if short, hills. Sadly balance is a bit dodgy now so haven't got the same degree of confidence.
When my balance went completely kaput following an ear operation, the otologist prescribed me a wii fit + balance board + snowboarding game.
Half an hour every morning.
Remarkably, it worked. £40 or so off gumtree IIRC. Might be worth trying - if it doesn't work, you can always flog it on for around the same price.
Interesting thought, Mr P. Weather's improving now, too!
OT. For the first time today I heard something positive about UKIP. Their first MP Douglas Carswell's father was the person Dr Nicolas Carrigan played by James Macavoy in the film 'The Last King of Scotland' was based on. I never read the book but thought it an excellent film and apparently quite an accurate portrayal of Carswell senior so clearly junior will have inherited a few good genes.
Yeah, I heard that as well.
I really liked Carswell. Very conflicted thoughts about what he did.
Interesting facts about oor Eck. UHe has never lost a constituency election and always increased his majority in every one. In Aberdeenshire East in 2011 he got 65 per cent of the vote in a seat which is at least half of the Gordon Westminster seat. Salmond is going in by a landslide ie at least 50 per cent of the vote.
Interesting is he can play the ukulele or can pull his upper lip over his head. That's just spin.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
That's probably about one of the few things could make me think about it.
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
Off topic: India has f*cked-up big time banning that interview with the racist, and then threatening to sue the BBC for showing it in the UK. Spattered all over the news, all over the world.
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
But you do think its OK to use phrases such as "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
It's just occurred to me - if a Labour minority gets in with Ed propped up by Nicola then both the Labour and Conservatives could utterly tear themselves apart in the next 5 years.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
That's probably about one of the few things could make me think about it.
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
One is a 30 minute entertainment.
The other is potentially a five year horror show. Ed's fun value would be close to zero after a week. After a month...a year? It's not worth a life-time of being on blood pressure meds.
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
But you do think its OK to use phrases such as "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
@JackW Be careful your ARSE doesn't leak Jack? It seems to be an affliction you blues are prone to.
I'm a Coalitionista and not one of "you blues" and may I also correct you further that my ARSE has not suffered a leak since Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister when the whole nation got the sh*ts.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
That's probably about one of the few things could make me think about it.
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
I don't think the country can afford to pay for that comedy.
OK, so is Lord Ashcroft (or anyone else) going to do any more Scottish constituency polls?
I can't see Alan Bown investing north of the border. Maybe if things get really bad [which of course they already are] UNITE will sponsor a few...
More seriously, I'd expect someone to pay for Jim Murphy and Alex Salmond's seats to be re-polled at some stage. Whether we get any new constituencies - no idea. Berwickshire etc., Rutherglen, Glenrothes would all be welcome.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
That's probably about one of the few things could make me think about it.
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
I don't think the country can afford to pay for that comedy.
Oh don't be ridiculous Eagles, we're burning about £200million a day, we'll have spent Eurostar by Sunday, what's afford got to do with it ?
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
That's probably about one of the few things could make me think about it.
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
One is a 30 minute entertainment.
The other is potentially a five year horror show. Ed's fun value would be close to zero after a week. After a month...a year? It's not worth a life-time of being on blood pressure meds.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
The point is that people are voting SNP to put a range of extreme lefty MPs in Westminster. Assuming the SNP really do gain all the seats being projected then the SNP want to press the sort of extreme lefty policies onto a Labour minority govt. On top of this the SNP will find endless reasons to vote on English only matters. Will English voters sleepwalk into letting this happen?
@JackW Be careful your ARSE doesn't leak Jack? It seems to be an affliction you blues are prone to.
I'm a Coalitionista and not one of "you blues" and may I also correct you further that my ARSE has not suffered a leak since Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister when the whole nation got the sh*ts.
@Flightpath It doesn't matter if the MP's Scotland votes in are SNP, Labour, or the Martian Colonists Party. They will be legally elected representatives to the UK parliament. If you don't like our constitution, write one.
They should just move the 2v2 debate to between the two leaders 7 way and make it a Finance Nominee 7 way. Swinney running rings round Balls and Osbourne would be a sight to behold.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
More likely Swinney gets strung up by the Balls and dissected by the Osbornes.
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
You've said something nice about Ozzy.
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
Even on the Brookometre GO ranks ahead of Balls and Swinney's somewhere behind Puff the Magic Dragon
So I reckon the Tory slogan of vote Tory or You'll get SNP a coalition in Westminster might work on you.
The point is that people are voting SNP to put a range of extreme lefty MPs in Westminster. Assuming the SNP really do gain all the seats being projected then the SNP want to press the sort of extreme lefty policies onto a Labour minority govt. On top of this the SNP will find endless reasons to vote on English only matters. Will English voters sleepwalk into letting this happen?
If the Tories and Labour are close on seats with the SNP cleaning up in Scotland why wouldn't there be very quick Commons approval of EV4EL?
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
But you do think its OK to use phrases such as "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
Which makes your views worthless to me.
"You knew, and you did f*** all" applies to the Labour council and local MP's such as McShane as it does to SY plod.
If the SNP get a landslide victory in Scotland then there'd be no point in Labour trying to run a minority government as if they're 50 odd seats off a majority, the only way they could realistically pass anything would be through the SNP. It'd have to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
But you do think its OK to use phrases such as "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
Which makes your views worthless to me.
"You knew, and you did f*** all" applies to the Labour council and local MP's such as McShane as it does to SY plod.
Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?
Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
You forgot crossover.
Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
Always good to have the view from the kebab shop.
Oh you are the one who said "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
His behaviour's not that much different than Ed's. I just don't have your blindspot to my own side, nor do I try to take the moral high ground while standing in a swamp.
But you do think its OK to use phrases such as "Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you"
Which makes your views worthless to me.
"You knew, and you did f*** all" applies to the Labour council and local MP's such as McShane as it does to SY plod.
What do they say about bad pennies
truth hurt does it? Read what Mcshane had to say about it.
If the SNP get a landslide victory in Scotland then there'd be no point in Labour trying to run a minority government as if they're 50 odd seats off a majority, the only way they could realistically pass anything would be through the SNP. It'd have to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
They'd get EV4EL through and would then be in a position to govern. The one problem would be the budget, but the SNP would have to vote with the Tories for that not to pass.
Without the EU fallopian tubes will wither and ovaries will explode.
I exaggerate, but only a little:
"Across in the House of Lords a debate is ongoing over how women's economic empowerment might be affected if the UK were to leave the EU. Baroness Crawley - the former chairwoman of the Women's National Commission, and now Labour peer, warns that "Farage is a feminist issue". She argues that leaving the EU would hurt women's economic empowerment. "The EU is not only the UK's largest economic market, it's also the union that helped establish standards for working men and women for their rights at work," she tells peers. "I would not want to see women in the UK miss out on future rights for work by leaving the European Union.""
If the SNP get a landslide victory in Scotland then there'd be no point in Labour trying to run a minority government as if they're 50 odd seats off a majority, the only way they could realistically pass anything would be through the SNP. It'd have to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
They'd get EV4EL through and would then be in a position to govern. The one problem would be the budget, but the SNP would have to vote with the Tories for that not to pass.
That's all very well if Labour are ahead on seats but if they're a couple behind... well...
Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?
Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
You forgot crossover.
Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
Hi all. Back in Blighty again after a brief break. Anything happened while I was away?
Scottish Labour facing slaughter, brave Sir Dave running away from the debates. UKIP appearing to come out of hibernation. Lib Dems looking screwed, except where they aren't.
You forgot crossover.
Maybe because it didn't happen, unless you exclude all the labour leads.
Tories currently 1 point ahead - 5 day weighted av. poll of polls. New Statesman website.
Part-ELBOW of the five polls so far this week suggests Tories only 0.7% ahead
Are you going to include the 8k megapoll ?
Fieldwork was 20-27th Feb so belongs with last week's (and month's) data. Still not sure whether this is a proper VI poll as there isn't a table amongst the 62 tables(!) in that PDF for final published VI.
@JackW Be careful your ARSE doesn't leak Jack? It seems to be an affliction you blues are prone to.
I'm a Coalitionista and not one of "you blues" and may I also correct you further that my ARSE has not suffered a leak since Gordon Brown's tenure as Prime Minister when the whole nation got the sh*ts.
So, mixing blue an yellow makes you a Greenie!
I consider that "Greenie" comment verges on the defam-a-tory
If the SNP get a landslide victory in Scotland then there'd be no point in Labour trying to run a minority government as if they're 50 odd seats off a majority, the only way they could realistically pass anything would be through the SNP. It'd have to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
They'd get EV4EL through and would then be in a position to govern. The one problem would be the budget, but the SNP would have to vote with the Tories for that not to pass.
That's all very well if Labour are ahead on seats but if they're a couple behind... well...
Labour could lead a minority government with far fewer seats than the Conservatives. They did so in 1924 after the December 1923 election, where they got 191 seats against the Conservatives' 258.
If Lab+SNP is ahead of the Conservatives, that is what I expect to happen, even if Labour are on c250 and the Conservatives are on c290.
@ScotTories: Lib Dem vote has collapsed. Only the Scottish Conservatives can keep Ed Miliband out of No10 and stand up to the SNP. http://t.co/8zKxTKQETb
If the SNP get a landslide victory in Scotland then there'd be no point in Labour trying to run a minority government as if they're 50 odd seats off a majority, the only way they could realistically pass anything would be through the SNP. It'd have to be a Labour/SNP coalition.
They'd get EV4EL through and would then be in a position to govern. The one problem would be the budget, but the SNP would have to vote with the Tories for that not to pass.
That's all very well if Labour are ahead on seats but if they're a couple behind... well...
The Tories will find it much more difficult because the SNP would undoubtedly vote against a Tory budget.
Comments
I think yes!
One word in defence of Cameron. He said from the start he wanted TV debates before short campaign. Broadcasters simply ignored him.
The debates did dominate the campaign last time. Though arguably that was a good thing - maybe not for those already politically inclined, but for those who were less engaged.
But let's not pretend the schedule the broadcasters created this time was motivated by a pure desire for democracy to triumph.
And lighten up, it's not my fault that ed is crap and that Baxter turns out to be not a prediction, and broken anyway.
http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/boris-johnson-is-londons-choice-to-replace-david-cameron-if-election-ends-in-deadlock-10088067.html
I bet we'd get debates with Boris too.
So far Ashcroft has polled 24 - that's over 40% of the total seats in Scotland. And we have the SNP ahead in 21 of them, tied in one, 1% behind in one and 7% behind in one where 10% were "others" i.e. Greens who may be easily persuaded to vote SNP.
And this is all with discredited 2010 weighting.
;-)
(Foolishly, there was me thinking we'd moved on from the days of Press barons and TV Execs exerting undue influence, clearly not)
I was out last night and so only browsed PB quickly, thought I saw 17/18% UKIP? Could be wrong
That bet looks more like 6/4 to me.
Edit: now cut to 4/1. Probably still value.
The 2v2 will never pass a legal challenge. It would also mean all the debates are over with 3 weeks left for the campaign.
2193 Lab
370 LD
285 SNP
28 PC
1113 UKIP
373 Green
21 BNP
42 Other
500 WNV
83 RTS
1128 DK
ABs over-represented, C2s under-represented.
What a joke.
Unweighted is
Con 1986
Lab 2088
LD 384
UKIP 1132
The man's a financial illiterate and that's against some weak opposition.
It looks fairly consistent with a 0-1% Labour lead [i.e. in line with the industry during the fieldwork period], and I would say it is relatively good for UKIP and poor for LD.
285 SNP
Says it all really.
But hey, someone calling him a financial illiterate on a message board is meaningful.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bob_Astles
PS - I've heard nothing but good stuff about Douglas Carswell's father, some of his work, saved many lives.
Edit: Just had a google, and you are right.
Sadly balance is a bit dodgy now so haven't got the same degree of confidence.
Apart from the mahoosive underspend obviously
Where is the real Alanbrooke and what have you done with him?
0.345 Lab
0.058 LD
0.045 SNP
0.004 PC
0.175 UKIP
0.059 Green
0.003 BNP
0.007 Other
That's just ignoring Others/DNV etc
Yeah good for Labour & UKIP, makes sense
Green LD SNP etc same as they are usually
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/dumfriesshire-clydesdale-and-tweeddale/winning-party
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/ayr-carrick-and-cumnock/winning-party
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/edinburgh-west/winning-party
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/fife-north-east/winning-party
Interesting facts about oor Eck. UHe has never lost a constituency election and always increased his majority in every one. In Aberdeenshire East in 2011 he got 65 per cent of the vote in a seat which is at least half of the Gordon Westminster seat. Salmond is going in by a landslide ie at least 50 per cent of the vote.
Half an hour every morning.
Remarkably, it worked. £40 or so off gumtree IIRC. Might be worth trying - if it doesn't work, you can always flog it on for around the same price.
Con 31
Lab 32
UKIP 16
Lib Dem 7
30.8
32.4
16.3
6.5
Pre 1 dp
If you apply Don't know/spiral of silence adjustments then its probably
Con 32
Lab 32
UKIP 14
Lib Dem 9
Something along those lines.
I really liked Carswell. Very conflicted thoughts about what he did.
Lets have one debate with at least 7 parties before the manifestos are out sums up Cowardly Cameron,
Those PB Tories who defend his behaviour should be ashamed.
40 hours 40 minutes 40 seconds
There is a precedent for a man losing an argument with an empty chair.
Mr. K, good to see you on. I had just left when, some days ago, you asked what my pen name was. It's Thaddeus White:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Thaddeus-White/e/B008C6RU98/
'I think Cowardly Cameron will turn up if the broadcasters stick to their 3 debate plan but offer Clegg the empty chair where Cameron refuses it.'
So just like the Cowardly Blair that chickened out of the TV debates, the PB Kinnocks should be ashamed.
"Yeah, the party that gets your kids raped in front of you" aren't you.
So i was already aware that Camerons behaviour would be OK by you.
"Ed Miliband agrees to debate himself"
Well I saw it done in Amsterdam once but that involved a girl as well.
Be careful your ARSE doesn't leak Jack? It seems to be an affliction you blues are prone to.
https://betting.betfair.com/politics/general-election-2015-betting/general-election-2015-labour-still-the-value-as-polls-point-towards-a-dead-heat-050315-171.html?rfr=798967&mpch=ads
But then again the Nats and Labour together could just be one of the best bits of entertainment in ages like the Thick of It only better.
Out Streisand-effecting Streisand by a large margin.
Not wanting to be a nitpicker, but "the racist" should really be the rapist?
Which makes your views worthless to me.
May need a few VAT's before the mist's clear enough to come up with a guess.
The other is potentially a five year horror show. Ed's fun value would be close to zero after a week. After a month...a year? It's not worth a life-time of being on blood pressure meds.
Uncannily accurate which is worrying because i believe you are more of an EWNBPM man than an EICIPM man.
More seriously, I'd expect someone to pay for Jim Murphy and Alex Salmond's seats to be re-polled at some stage. Whether we get any new constituencies - no idea. Berwickshire etc., Rutherglen, Glenrothes would all be welcome.
Some decent policies might.
It doesn't matter if the MP's Scotland votes in are SNP, Labour, or the Martian Colonists Party.
They will be legally elected representatives to the UK parliament.
If you don't like our constitution, write one.
From a basic reading, it also applied to the Thatcher Government as well.
http://www.itv.com/loosewomen/the-most-hated-man-in-britain
I exaggerate, but only a little:
"Across in the House of Lords a debate is ongoing over how women's economic empowerment might be affected if the UK were to leave the EU. Baroness Crawley - the former chairwoman of the Women's National Commission, and now Labour peer, warns that "Farage is a feminist issue". She argues that leaving the EU would hurt women's economic empowerment. "The EU is not only the UK's largest economic market, it's also the union that helped establish standards for working men and women for their rights at work," she tells peers. "I would not want to see women in the UK miss out on future rights for work by leaving the European Union.""
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-31735291
Roll out the huskies Jeeves.
If Lab+SNP is ahead of the Conservatives, that is what I expect to happen, even if Labour are on c250 and the Conservatives are on c290.
@ScotTories: Lib Dem vote has collapsed. Only the Scottish Conservatives can keep Ed Miliband out of No10 and stand up to the SNP. http://t.co/8zKxTKQETb
Winning here :-)