politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds

@Sunil_Prasannan


'Ashcroft is one of the pollsters untested at a General Election, yes? '

As was Angus Red in 2010.

MarkSenior said:

DavidL said:

I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .

Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
1,004 20-22nd Feb

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

SLAB might as well give up and go home.

Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West

I'm on the SNP at 50/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Posts like yours are exquisite torture.

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

SLAB might as well give up and go home.

Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West

That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidL said:

I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .

Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
1,004 20-22nd Feb

The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000

Marginals poll, not a National poll.

Sean_F said:

kle4 said:

Hengists_Gift said:

Cameron plays yet more games:

David Cameron issues TV debate ultimatum

David Cameron has issued an ultimatum to the broadcasters over the TV debates, saying he will only take part in one contest featuring at least seven party leaders

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11450542/David-Cameron-issues-TV-debate-ultimatum.html

Hmm, obviously he keeps shifting position in order to ensure the debates don't happen while trying not to be blamed for it on account of cowardice (and surely the broadcasters won't like the idea of not getting their own exclusive debate to broadcast), but I'm really unclear what his problem with the format that was eventually proposed was - he got other left wing and regional parties who will potentially harm Labour's chances more than his involved, and a head to head with Ed M which though I don't think he would win as easily as many might think, would still be expected to work in his favour.

What was the problem with that from his perspective?

I think he thinks he has nothing to gain from a debate (he leads Milliband), and could potentially lose.

IMHO, the broadcasters ought to stage the debate with the chicken standing in for Cameron.

Why not do something just before the official campaign starts? Get together and say they want him and Miliband in a 1v1 debate. I can't see how he riggles out of that.

Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

They have multiple candidates in one seat??

another_richard said:

Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.

another_richard said:

Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

He didn't really do himself any favours. Saying that, the way an officer lied about witnesses was pretty disgusting.

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.

106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.

TheScreamingEagles said:

another_richard said:

Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.

Whats happened with him now ?

I think he was a victim of this country's libel system tbh. Yes yes I know he kind of made his own bed but I believe him over the copper tbh.

Haile Selassie chucked money out of his car window in his final days as emperor.

another_richard said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

SLAB might as well give up and go home.

Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West

That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.

I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

Mundell probably holds...

See this is a misconception.

There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.

No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.

And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.

JohnO said:

antifrank said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.

106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.

I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?

Nick Palmer has always been unfailingly polite about all Labour leaders.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Cammo going to get some crap over this debate offer, presumably thinks time is right to get it nailed down now rather than drag on further. Might that be as feels stronger with recent polling?

Looks like Montie is nicking my copy!!

Tim Montgomerie ن‏@montie·16 secs16 seconds ago
With Tories slowly moving ahead in polls Cameron would be mad to give Miliband opportunity for momentum. Right decision to kill elxn debates

In Norwich North, note the high UKIP share. These poor kippers are going to hear an awful lot about the idea of going to bed with Nigel and waking up with Ed. Which is the sort of night that I wouldn't wish on anyone.

Ishmael_X said:

MarkSenior said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

MarkSenior said:

DavidL said:

I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .

Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
1,004 20-22nd Feb

The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000

Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.

8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?

The Labour leadership must rule out a pact with the Tories after this poll.It's a case of damage limitation.Ian Davidson who has done so much to reveal the blacklisting of workers would be a loss,as would Katy Clarke.This is self-harm by the Scots to remove people of this quality.
Electoral registration will decide things in the English marginals.There is not long to correct the Tories gerrymandering of the electoral registration.Voter registration will decide these.

edmundintokyo said:

FrankBooth said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.

I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.

Remember you have on here, Labour supporters, who in all honesty, say Blair is a Tory.

Pong said:

another_richard said:

Pong said:

Alistair said:

Pong said:

Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

SLAB might as well give up and go home.

Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West

That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.

I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.

Edinburgh is inevitably similar to London in that way - lots of rich / well paid / educated people making the stats look good but also meaning a lot of inequality.

Cameron's behavior Re. the debate's is quite outrageous, to be honest. But the thing is, it looks like he's actually going to get away with it!

Camerons position on the debates is completely unacceptable.

If he is invited and doesnt turn up he should be empty chaired

Scrapheap_as_was said:

HANDBAGS!!!!

Tim Montgomerie ن‏@montie·40 secs41 seconds ago
Enjoying @May2015 giving @MSmithsonPB a thoroughly deserved kicking twitter.com/May2015NS/status/573233597307596801 …


Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted
May2015‏@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago
If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.

Aren't they both just working through Lord A's polls, so they would be similar?

News from Bradford

George Galloway ‏@georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago
I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...

I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats

Barnesian said:

I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats

EICIPM!!

FrancisUrquhart said:

I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.

Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...

Tykejohnno said:

Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

The Chiltern Firehouse is so last year. The Clove Club is where it's at in early 2015. Though I may be a fortnight out of date now.

antifrank said:

Tykejohnno said:

Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

The Chiltern Firehouse is so last year. The Clove Club is where it's at in early 2015. Though I may be a fortnight out of date now.

Lord A going to be giving it a good rating on TripAdvisor then :-)

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

foxinsoxuk said:

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

And does he pay UK tax...

If I was a candidate, I wouldn't touch Blair's money with a bargepole.

Pecunia non olet.

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.

Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...

He has an election to try and win in the first place...I would have thought he might care about that? But then maybe not, chillaxing could well be more appealing.

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

Plunging Baby Eaters falling apart - Yougov Tie.

Tonights YG EICIPM

david_herdson said:

another_richard said:

david_herdson said:

Dair said:

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

Mundell probably holds...

See this is a misconception.

There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.

No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.

And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.

And do you think the surge in SNP support is based upon nationalism rather than upon which party is likely to get the most for Scotland ?

Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.

Can't wait for SeanT to come and tell us that Cameron still really really wants the debates and this is all a negotiating tactic.

GIN1138 said:

Just For Fun

YouGov Prediction:

Con/Lab Tie!

Hmmmmm....

GIN1138 said:

GIN1138 said:

Just For Fun

YouGov Prediction:

Con/Lab Tie!

Hmmmmm....

He shoots.....he scores!

GIN1138 said:

Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 6s 6 seconds ago

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

Broken sleazy Tories on the slide?

Sean_F said:

The last 5 Yougov polls have 1% Con lead, tie, 3% Con lead, 2% Con lead, tie.

There's definitely been a move towards Conservative with YouGov over the past week or so...

Tykejohnno said:

Well done Gin again ;-)

Indeed very good at this Gin

Barnesian said:

I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats

In 2010, the LDs had a lot of swing voters and previous non-voter support, courtesy of Clegg's debate performances. It's not unreasonable to see that kind of voter drifting to UKIP. Indeed, the Lib Dems made (and make) great play of not being the other two and many of their former voters backed them mainly in opposition to someone else.

Similarly, Labour's 2010 score was far closer to their true core vote whereas the Tories' was bulked out by a lot of swing voters who've since moved on. To compare like with like, you'd need baselines where the two parties were at similar positions support-wise (maybe the Tories in 2013, for example). That said, I don't think there's much doubt that many of UKIP's recruits since 2010 were formerly core Con voters.

I'm intrigued as to why you think UKIP will poll 17.5% when they're currently well below that and falling. Election coverage may help but not all publicity is good publicity.

Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie

So, so partisan: @campbellclaret - who did not let Blair debate - attacks Cameron for not debating! https://twitter.com/campbellclaret


Alastair Campbell ✔ @campbellclaret

@David_Cameron bottling because he has no record to defend and no vision of the future. If @Ed_Miliband is as bad as he says why so scared?

Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago
.@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.

Artist said:

Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago
.@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.

Do we really though ?

These lesbians seem conflicted about UKIP.