politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds

SystemSystem Posts: 11,704
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds

politicalbetting.com is proudly powered by WordPress
with "Neat!" theme. Entries (RSS) and Comments (RSS).

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • Options
    peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,875
    First .....again!
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    2
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,292
    Finds what?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Find nothing... By the looks of it...
  • Options
    JWisemannJWisemann Posts: 1,082
    18% swing Con - Greens
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    distinctly uninteresting so far.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,068
    Amazed the Libdem numbers haven't moved more. These numbers are dynamite.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Have people got them then? I could have sworn I signed up but have nothing in my inbox.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    With the election just weeks away why is Lord A still not polling with named candidates !!
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Those polls aren't "as of today" - Con will already be ahead in High Peak / Norwich North.
  • Options
    EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 351
    Labour won't win Norwich North.
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.
  • Options
    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    20% swings.. wowsers.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900
    Latest LARGER EICIPM
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900
    TGOHF said:

    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.

    Voters want EICIPM?
  • Options
    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    bigjohnowls said:

    TGOHF said:

    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.

    Voters want EICIPM?
    Ed plus Nicola - still short...
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Edinburgh SW being 13 percent SNP lead makes any Edinburgh seat with SNP odds against an immense bet.
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    TGOHF said:

    Ed is stuffed.

    Looks like Farage ain't in either

    Why do you think Farage won't get in out of interest?
  • Options
    philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    TGOHF said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TGOHF said:

    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.

    Voters want EICIPM?
    Ed plus Nicola - still short...
    Have to get a box to stand on in that case.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    TGOHF said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TGOHF said:

    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.

    Voters want EICIPM?
    Ed plus Nicola - still short...
    How is Dave getting to 323 on these numbers
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    Where are the Tories at in D&G?
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Betfair have only suspended Edinburgh South West, all the other Edinburgh seats are open.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    @MSmithsonPB: In quite a few Ashcroft LAB - CON marginals LAB in front with all giving voting intention. CON holding on greater certainty to vote
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,061
    surbiton said:

    I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.

    If Murphy is committed to the Scottish parliament why is he standing?

  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Casino_Royale said:

    Where are the Tories at in D&G?

    Level.
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tories worth a bet in D&G?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf
  • Options
    SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    '56 of Scotland's 59 seats could go to the SNP'


    Bah! - a mere flesh wound says Ed.
  • Options
    peterbusspeterbuss Posts: 109
    How many seat(s) did Ashcroft predict the yellows would have?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Tissue_Price said:

    Tories worth a bet in D&G?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf

    Yes
  • Options
    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,883
    Time for Labour to take the nuclear option and rule out any deal with the SNP if this is the true state of play.

    Good results for Labour in High Peak and Norwich North, these are very far down their target list.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    edited March 2015
    Is The Good Lord handing down this information to the Masses right now? You know like GOD giving the Ten Commandments to Moses?
  • Options
    calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    surbiton said:

    I believe Kennedy will hold on. Murphy will win also - by 5%.

    I think they are both toast - the SNP will now unleash their ground forces in both seats. I wouldn't be surprised if Murphy gives some serious consideration to standing down on the basis of keeping himself for Holyrood 2016 - he's already stated he won't be both an MP and MSP by May 2016, at least he would get a list seat in Holyrood.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/campaign-state-play-plus-latest-marginals/
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Increased my stake on Edinburgh North&Leith and dabbled with Edinburgh South
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,900
    TGOHF said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    TGOHF said:

    How do Lab get near 272 ? nats are crucifying them.

    Voters want EICIPM?
    Ed plus Nicola - still short...
    I would prefer a left wing coalition to one with EICIPM governing alone myself. SNP will hopefully result in a more radical Government
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Charlie Kennedy is getting a 10% personal boost, still behind 5%
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Where are the Tories at in D&G?

    Level.
    Great. On them at 9/1 I think.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,990
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?

    Right after a majority voted against independence?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Tories worth a bet in D&G?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/03/Dumfries-Galloway-Feb-15-Full-tables-LAM124A.pdf

    Yes
    was 6/1 before betfair suspended the market.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Where are the Tories at in D&G?

    Level.
    Great. On them at 9/1 I think.
    Oh no sorry tha\ts in their own seat, they are 4% behind in Dumfries and Galloway
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    I've taken a punt of Conservatives in Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Tories Most Seats really should shorten on this - another 5 or so on the SNP line
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/campaign-state-play-plus-latest-marginals/

    Ed Miliband is Elmer Fudd!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    antifrank said:

    Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.

    This polling is good news for my Livingston & Stirling bets I reckon.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.

    I am glad I listened to your wise advice and didn't lay off Edinburgh East.

    Edinburgh North & Leith price now looks mental though.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    I've taken a punt of Conservatives in Berwickshire Roxburgh and Selkirk

    Might go SNP xD
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    Artist said:

    Time for Labour to take the nuclear option and rule out any deal with the SNP if this is the true state of play.

    Good results for Labour in High Peak and Norwich North, these are very far down their target list.

    It's worth bearing in mind that the polling in the Tory marginals is 3-4 weeks old. If there's been a swing to the Conservatives since then, they would all be holds.

  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Wabbits!
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/03/campaign-state-play-plus-latest-marginals/

    Ed Miliband is Elmer Fudd!
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    edited March 2015
    So the state of play for the last few months is still holding it seems, Labour doing just enough to win were it not for the collapse in Scotland muddying the waters.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    And good show everyone who was saying pile on SNP in Aberdeenshire West & Kincardine back when they were still better than evens.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    @keiranpedley: Key quote from @LordAshcroft tonight 'some of the results from my polling ... were very close, and some of them are now several months old'
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    Blinking Norah. I've recently tried to temper my optimism about the SNP, but this polling makes that very hard to do.

    This polling is good news for my Livingston & Stirling bets I reckon.
    Undeniably. All my squeamishness yesterday seems to have been just faint-hearted nonsense. Though I stand by what I said about the chances of the SNP getting more than 22 seats being better than two in three.
  • Options
    JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,017
    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Just stuck a few more tweets in
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    I'm wading through the tables as we speak.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    UDI from the SNP on the 8th of May?

    Right after a majority voted against independence?
    I don't doubt some small numbers in their ranks might want to go that route regardless of the result of the IndyRef, but cooler heads should make them see that it isn't necessary. If the SNP get that kind of dominance in Westminster seats, there's a good chance the Union is dead anyway, though not a certainty - but given how everything has worked out so well for the SNP since the IndyRef failure, I cannot be optimistic that the dominance will reduce quickly, which is needed for the Union side to pick themselves up.
  • Options
    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,648
    Ashcroft saying that based on all his old marginal polls, Labour will gain 41 seats from the Tories. Given how the landscape and polls have moved since then, and accounting for named candidates, I expect the true current figure to be around 30 gains.

    Not good enough. Tories need to claw back at least another 10.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    If I read the understanding of those at the presentation, Lord A thinks the polling has moved to the Tories since the last time he polled, so the Lab gains in the past, are no longer Lab gains.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Ashcroft points out that swing to SNP is actually higher in "no" areas, it would #GE2015
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.
  • Options
    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    All Edinburgh markets have now been suspended by Betfair. Sorry if you missed out.
  • Options
    frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    I can't see the wood for the trees.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited March 2015
    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont Votes
    Doing so gives roughly

    Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
    This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Alistair said:

    All Edinburgh markets have now been suspended by Betfair. Sorry if you missed out.

    Hah Can't get on for more than tuppence with them now.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    MarkSenior said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont Votes
    Doing so gives roughly

    Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
    This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
    SNP 6 !!!
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,061
    Pulpstar said:

    This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.

    Interesting. Could the SNP demand Miliband go as a price for propping up Labour? I've no idea where we are headed, maybe another 2015 general election. The bizarre thing is as you state that on these kind of numbers the knives could be out for all three party leaders. The mood of late has suggested that if Cameron could head up another coalition then his party would back him. But would they? He's never had much cash in the bank.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can get 2/1 on the SNP in Ross Skye & Lochaber with William Hill, for those who believe that the odds will change when the bookies wake up.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    FrankBooth said:

    Pulpstar said:

    This really is the sort of polling that could see all 3 leaders out - the SNP simply will not prop up the Conservatives but if Ed ends up on 260 seats he is surely toast.

    Interesting. Could the SNP demand Miliband go as a price for propping up Labour? I've no idea where we are headed, maybe another 2015 general election. The bizarre thing is as you state that on these kind of numbers the knives could be out for all three party leaders. The mood of late has suggested that if Cameron could head up another coalition then his party would back him. But would they? He's never had much cash in the bank.
    Farron and Nigel Dodds could hold the power.
  • Options
    EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Delighted to see it looks as though David Mundell will repel the Yessers. If Ashcroft has a TIE then he should be able to hold on.
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Pulpstar said:

    MarkSenior said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont Votes
    Doing so gives roughly

    Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
    This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
    SNP 6 !!!
    NO !!!!!!! The 6 also includes Plaid , BNP and Some Other Party hence the mostly .
  • Options
    SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!
  • Options
    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Removing the DK/WNV/Refused from Q1. I make it

    Lab 34%
    Con 30%
    UKIP 18%
    Grn 6%
    LD 6%
    SNP 4%
    Other 1%
  • Options
    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,967
    MarkSenior said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont Votes
    Doing so gives roughly

    Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
    This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
    The reallocation of don't knows would usually narrow the gap by c2%.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    Well Carmichael seems safe enough on these numbers.

    I err think....
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    I don't think you'd shed too many tears if these polls eventuated as reality on 8 May.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Is it possible to move the Pandas out of Scotland somehow perhaps? Nullify the bet?
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    antifrank said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    I don't think you'd shed too many tears if these polls eventuated as reality on 8 May.
    I wouldn't. I'm so glad you delurked from your sabbatical last summer.
  • Options
    Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    SquareRoot said:

    Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!

    Don't know about his stance but here's a tweet of his:

    LAB & CON currently on 272 seats each according to Lord Ashcroft polling

    Here's what Ashcroft says:

    And of the 59 Conservative-held seats I have polled in which Labour are the principal challengers, I have found Labour ahead in……forty-one. That – and this is not a forecast – would give Labour and the Conservatives 272 seats each in the House of Commons.

    But some of the results from my polling in those 41 seats were very close, and some of them are now several months old.

    "currently."
  • Options
    Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    What when England and Wales will move even closer to withdrawing from the EU and rUK will have to put up strong border controls to ensure immigrants to Scotland under Scotland's liberal immigration policy are not just using it as an access route to rUK?

    And thats not even mentioning the finacial settlements.

    Divorces almost invariably get messy!
  • Options
    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    Sean_F said:

    MarkSenior said:

    JohnLilburne said:

    Is there a national VI figure somewhere in those 100+ pages of tables or are we waiting for that to be released later?

    There is although he does not give figures excluding Dont Knows/Wont Votes
    Doing so gives roughly

    Con 30 Lab 34 LD 7 UKIP 17 Green 7 Others ( mostly SNP 6 )
    This is from the 8,000 sample fieldwork 20-27th Feb .
    The reallocation of don't knows would usually narrow the gap by c2%.
    Not in this case , it would boost the Lib Dems a touch and perhaps the Conservatives by less than half a % . See Table 1 Page 2
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    Just For Fun

    YouGov Prediction:

    Con/Lab Tie!
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,002
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,061
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.
  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    Hengists_Gift said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    What when England and Wales will move even closer to withdrawing from the EU and rUK will have to put up strong border controls to ensure immigrants to Scotland under Scotland's liberal immigration policy are not just using it as an access route to rUK?

    And thats not even mentioning the finacial settlements.

    Divorces almost invariably get messy!
    It is not going to be easy but if it is the will of the Scots then it has to be respected just as an exit from Europe would have to be respected if a referendum voted to leave
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
    Yeah, I think he does, there's enough tactical unionist votes out there.
  • Options
    scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Mundell and Murphy to go?

    On my look at the Ashcroft data the SNP are slightly ahead in both seats. What are the odds against a Nat clean sweep?
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 92,048
    edited March 2015
    FrankBooth said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.
    What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    SquareRoot said:

    Mike Smithson is tweeting as tho this poll is a result. Its nonsense. Def showing his anti tory stance!!

    Even worse is people are on their way to the pay out window to collect their winnings, it's utter nonsense.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,584
    Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.
  • Options
    nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    kle4 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.
    What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.
    I won't be, the way they have carried on I am sick to death of the grasping ponces.
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,061
    kle4 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.
    What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.
    The SNP are cannier than that. They know that 'the people' are tired of politicians squabbling and playing games so they'll largely behave themselves I'm sure whilst perhaps subtly doing the odd thing to undermine the union.
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,920
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.

    Welcome to my world!

  • Options
    Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 60,369
    kle4 said:

    FrankBooth said:

    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    If this is anywhere near the result in Scotland a second referendum would be a necessity and if the Scots decide to go alone that should be an acceptable position and both sides waive a fond farewell to each other but grow closer together through cooperation on both sides of the new border

    Not sure why. They aren't even campaigning in the election for another referendum. The possible gridlock worries me but I do think it would be a truly wonderful thing for Alex Salmond, who Cameron claimed post-referendum he had bagged stuffed and on his wall, to hand Dave his P45.
    What worries me is the SNP justifiably holding everyone else over a barrel if they get this result, leading to much more intense anti-Scotland positioning from the others and basically cementing SNP dominance, making independence virtually inevitable even if not everyone now voting for them wants that. It feels like sleepwalking toward independence, and though we'll get by together as friendly nations, I shall be very sad it just sort of petered out the way it seems it will now.
    Excellent analysis of the situation to come if SNP take anything like the seats projected
  • Options
    SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @TheScreamingEagles
    Cameron is DIRE?

    (Dave Is Re Elected)
  • Options
    compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ok, I'm prepared to say the Tories will win the most votes and most seats.

    ARF!
This discussion has been closed.