I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
'I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly'
We had a similar example last week with the Lib Dem private polling saying they were 'competitive' in seats like Solihull and a week later they are polling 5%.
Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.
Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%
SLAB might as well give up and go home.
Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.
I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...
There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.
Mundell probably holds...
See this is a misconception.
There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.
This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.
This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
David Cameron has issued an ultimatum to the broadcasters over the TV debates, saying he will only take part in one contest featuring at least seven party leaders
Hmm, obviously he keeps shifting position in order to ensure the debates don't happen while trying not to be blamed for it on account of cowardice (and surely the broadcasters won't like the idea of not getting their own exclusive debate to broadcast), but I'm really unclear what his problem with the format that was eventually proposed was - he got other left wing and regional parties who will potentially harm Labour's chances more than his involved, and a head to head with Ed M which though I don't think he would win as easily as many might think, would still be expected to work in his favour.
What was the problem with that from his perspective?
I think he thinks he has nothing to gain from a debate (he leads Milliband), and could potentially lose.
IMHO, the broadcasters ought to stage the debate with the chicken standing in for Cameron.
Why not do something just before the official campaign starts? Get together and say they want him and Miliband in a 1v1 debate. I can't see how he riggles out of that.
Cammo going to get some crap over this debate offer, presumably thinks time is right to get it nailed down now rather than drag on further. Might that be as feels stronger with recent polling?
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?
Not at all. The worrying that about his situation though is that how it has ended will overshadow the despicable actions of a great many police officers involved in the whole affair.
"No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum."
Even in the Borders, the SNP topped the list vote for Holyrood 2011.
As no-one is actually voting for independence in GE 2015, it is entirely possible that Labour voters will now vote SNP to defeat Mundell, with anti-Toryism proving stronger than pro-unionism- which is not at immediate risk.
The Ashcroft poll has made the seat into a Tory/SNP battle which has made clear who those wishing to defeat the Tory should rationally vote for.
Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.
Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%
SLAB might as well give up and go home.
Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.
I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...
There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.
oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.
I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.
Mundell probably holds...
See this is a misconception.
There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.
This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.
This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.
Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
Nick Palmer has always been unfailingly polite about all Labour leaders.
Cammo going to get some crap over this debate offer, presumably thinks time is right to get it nailed down now rather than drag on further. Might that be as feels stronger with recent polling?
Looks like Montie is nicking my copy!!
Tim Montgomerie ن@montie·16 secs16 seconds ago With Tories slowly moving ahead in polls Cameron would be mad to give Miliband opportunity for momentum. Right decision to kill elxn debates
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
Nick Palmer has always been unfailingly polite about all Labour leaders.
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
In Norwich North, note the high UKIP share. These poor kippers are going to hear an awful lot about the idea of going to bed with Nigel and waking up with Ed. Which is the sort of night that I wouldn't wish on anyone.
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
The Labour leadership must rule out a pact with the Tories after this poll.It's a case of damage limitation.Ian Davidson who has done so much to reveal the blacklisting of workers would be a loss,as would Katy Clarke.This is self-harm by the Scots to remove people of this quality. Electoral registration will decide things in the English marginals.There is not long to correct the Tories gerrymandering of the electoral registration.Voter registration will decide these.
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
Remember you have on here, Labour supporters, who in all honesty, say Blair is a Tory.
R5 running with the story that Cameron has told them (not BBC has learned), that he wants one debate, 7 leaders, must be this month. High stakes from Cameron, could blow up in his face.
Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.
Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%
SLAB might as well give up and go home.
Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.
I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...
There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.
oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.
I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.
Edinburgh is inevitably similar to London in that way - lots of rich / well paid / educated people making the stats look good but also meaning a lot of inequality.
Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted May2015@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
I think so. There is much that is obscure about tonight's perfformance.
Tim Montgomerie ن@montie·40 secs41 seconds ago Enjoying @May2015 giving @MSmithsonPB a thoroughly deserved kicking twitter.com/May2015NS/status/573233597307596801 …
Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted May2015@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.
Aren't they both just working through Lord A's polls, so they would be similar?
I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.
George Galloway @georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
I wonder if Gordon will now donate £2,000 to each of those candidates.
I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.
For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).
I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).
The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:
I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.
For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).
I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).
The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:
I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.
Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...
George Galloway @georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...
@michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
Remember you have on here, Labour supporters, who in all honesty, say Blair is a Tory.
I'm probably also loosely Labour-supporting (at least vs Con) but I'd vote for almost any Tory over Tony Blair. However, he probably does still have some genuine loyalty to Labour.
1 debate is still 1 debate too many. But having it before the official start of the campaign will reduce the impact and see off this pointless concept once and for all.
I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.
Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...
He has an election to try and win in the first place...I would have thought he might care about that? But then maybe not, chillaxing could well be more appealing.
I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.
Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...
He has an election to try and win in the first place...I would have thought he might care about that? But then maybe not, chillaxing could well be more appealing.
The broadcasters will have to be fair through the election campaign. They may try and get revenge afterwards but as long as Cam get's back into Maggie's Den I doubt he'll care...
Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.
Mundell probably holds...
See this is a misconception.
There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.
This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.
This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.
Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
And do you think the surge in SNP support is based upon nationalism rather than upon which party is likely to get the most for Scotland ?
Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.
Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.
Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%
SLAB might as well give up and go home.
Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
I'm on the SNP at 50/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Posts like yours are exquisite torture.
Before dumping all my life savings on it I have to keep reminding myself the Edinburgh North and Leith is more than just Leith. The North part of the name encompasses some of the most snobbish high class bits of Edinburgh.It's a weird constituency.
I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.
For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).
I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).
The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:
In 2010, the LDs had a lot of swing voters and previous non-voter support, courtesy of Clegg's debate performances. It's not unreasonable to see that kind of voter drifting to UKIP. Indeed, the Lib Dems made (and make) great play of not being the other two and many of their former voters backed them mainly in opposition to someone else.
Similarly, Labour's 2010 score was far closer to their true core vote whereas the Tories' was bulked out by a lot of swing voters who've since moved on. To compare like with like, you'd need baselines where the two parties were at similar positions support-wise (maybe the Tories in 2013, for example). That said, I don't think there's much doubt that many of UKIP's recruits since 2010 were formerly core Con voters.
I'm intrigued as to why you think UKIP will poll 17.5% when they're currently well below that and falling. Election coverage may help but not all publicity is good publicity.
Toby Perkins MP @tobyperkinsmp 2m2 minutes ago Just when you think @SunPolitics couldn't possibly get more ridiculous. This: "David Cameron throws down TV debates gauntlet"
How can anyone defend the way he has acted over the debates?
Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.
I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.
Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories
Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar 1,004 20-22nd Feb
The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
Of course it doesn't . Why don't you simply go to his website and study the figures ?
Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.
Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet
Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.
Mundell probably holds...
See this is a misconception.
There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.
This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.
This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.
Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
And do you think the surge in SNP support is based upon nationalism rather than upon which party is likely to get the most for Scotland ?
Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.
I'd call putting a Labour government in place a very expensive vote.
Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.
Comments
'Ashcroft is one of the pollsters untested at a General Election, yes? '
As was Angus Red in 2010.
1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
1,004 20-22nd Feb
'I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly'
We had a similar example last week with the Lib Dem private polling saying they were 'competitive' in seats like Solihull and a week later they are polling 5%.
Spurs win (yay!!!) but so do the 6 above them....
I think he was a victim of this country's libel system tbh. Yes yes I know he kind of made his own bed but I believe him over the copper tbh.
"No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum."
Even in the Borders, the SNP topped the list vote for Holyrood 2011.
As no-one is actually voting for independence in GE 2015, it is entirely possible that Labour voters will now vote SNP to defeat Mundell, with anti-Toryism proving stronger than pro-unionism- which is not at immediate risk.
The Ashcroft poll has made the seat into a Tory/SNP battle which has made clear who those wishing to defeat the Tory should rationally vote for.
I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.
Tim Montgomerie ن@montie·16 secs16 seconds ago
With Tories slowly moving ahead in polls Cameron would be mad to give Miliband opportunity for momentum. Right decision to kill elxn debates
Electoral registration will decide things in the English marginals.There is not long to correct the Tories gerrymandering of the electoral registration.Voter registration will decide these.
https://t.co/OasFxSXUB4
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/573241301598126080
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/573243024995696640
Tim Montgomerie ن@montie·40 secs41 seconds ago
Enjoying @May2015 giving @MSmithsonPB a thoroughly deserved kicking https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/573233597307596801 …
Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted
May2015@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago
If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.
If he is invited and doesnt turn up he should be empty chaired
Aren't they both just working through Lord A's polls, so they would be similar?
George Galloway @georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago
I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...
We know how he likes to outdo Blair.
For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).
I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).
The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:
Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats
Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft
Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming
I agree with Dave!
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.
Career in ruins
Reputation in ruins
Lost a fortune
but it was Mitchell who was the victim of the crime !!!
And the criminals were police.
Isn't this sort of thing only meant to happen in thugocracies and banana republics ???
Similarly, Labour's 2010 score was far closer to their true core vote whereas the Tories' was bulked out by a lot of swing voters who've since moved on. To compare like with like, you'd need baselines where the two parties were at similar positions support-wise (maybe the Tories in 2013, for example). That said, I don't think there's much doubt that many of UKIP's recruits since 2010 were formerly core Con voters.
I'm intrigued as to why you think UKIP will poll 17.5% when they're currently well below that and falling. Election coverage may help but not all publicity is good publicity.
Just when you think @SunPolitics couldn't possibly get more ridiculous. This: "David Cameron throws down TV debates gauntlet"
How can anyone defend the way he has acted over the debates?
Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie
So, so partisan: @campbellclaret - who did not let Blair debate - attacks Cameron for not debating! https://twitter.com/campbellclaret
Alastair Campbell ✔ @campbellclaret
@David_Cameron bottling because he has no record to defend and no vision of the future. If @Ed_Miliband is as bad as he says why so scared?
One man's word against another.
.@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.