Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest batch of Ashcroft marginals polling finds

135

Comments

  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Sunil_Prasannan


    'Ashcroft is one of the pollsters untested at a General Election, yes? '

    As was Angus Red in 2010.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

    Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

    SLAB might as well give up and go home.

    Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
    Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
    I'm on the SNP at 50/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Posts like yours are exquisite torture.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited March 2015
    @DavidL

    'I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly'

    We had a similar example last week with the Lib Dem private polling saying they were 'competitive' in seats like Solihull and a week later they are polling 5%.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Pong said:

    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

    Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

    SLAB might as well give up and go home.

    Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
    Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
    That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

    I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

    There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Can the blues make it a hattrick of poll leads with YouGov today?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
    Marginals poll, not a National poll.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
    See this is a misconception.

    There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

    This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

    This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
    No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
    And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928
    Sean_F said:

    kle4 said:

    Cameron plays yet more games:

    David Cameron issues TV debate ultimatum

    David Cameron has issued an ultimatum to the broadcasters over the TV debates, saying he will only take part in one contest featuring at least seven party leaders


    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/11450542/David-Cameron-issues-TV-debate-ultimatum.html

    Hmm, obviously he keeps shifting position in order to ensure the debates don't happen while trying not to be blamed for it on account of cowardice (and surely the broadcasters won't like the idea of not getting their own exclusive debate to broadcast), but I'm really unclear what his problem with the format that was eventually proposed was - he got other left wing and regional parties who will potentially harm Labour's chances more than his involved, and a head to head with Ed M which though I don't think he would win as easily as many might think, would still be expected to work in his favour.

    What was the problem with that from his perspective?
    I think he thinks he has nothing to gain from a debate (he leads Milliband), and could potentially lose.

    IMHO, the broadcasters ought to stage the debate with the chicken standing in for Cameron.

    Why not do something just before the official campaign starts? Get together and say they want him and Miliband in a 1v1 debate. I can't see how he riggles out of that.
  • @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

  • So no debates then....

    Spurs win (yay!!!) but so do the 6 above them....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    They have multiple candidates in one seat?? ;)
  • Cammo going to get some crap over this debate offer, presumably thinks time is right to get it nailed down now rather than drag on further. Might that be as feels stronger with recent polling?
  • Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    He didn't really do himself any favours. Saying that, the way an officer lied about witnesses was pretty disgusting.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Will they put his face on their campaign leaflets?
  • @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

  • @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Will they put his face on their campaign leaflets?
    There's space as they're not putting Ed Miliband's face on their campaign leaflets.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,587

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    Not at all. The worrying that about his situation though is that how it has ended will overshadow the despicable actions of a great many police officers involved in the whole affair.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
    Whats happened with him now ?

    I think he was a victim of this country's libel system tbh. Yes yes I know he kind of made his own bed but I believe him over the copper tbh.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
    Really? The same firm are filleting The Mirror, and James Price, his QC, is very highly regarded.
  • frpenkridgefrpenkridge Posts: 670
    Haile Selassie chucked money out of his car window in his final days as emperor.
  • JPJ2JPJ2 Posts: 380
    David Herdson,

    "No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum."

    Even in the Borders, the SNP topped the list vote for Holyrood 2011.

    As no-one is actually voting for independence in GE 2015, it is entirely possible that Labour voters will now vote SNP to defeat Mundell, with anti-Toryism proving stronger than pro-unionism- which is not at immediate risk.

    The Ashcroft poll has made the seat into a Tory/SNP battle which has made clear who those wishing to defeat the Tory should rationally vote for.

  • PongPong Posts: 4,693

    Pong said:

    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

    Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

    SLAB might as well give up and go home.

    Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
    Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
    That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

    I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

    There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

    oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.

    I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    antifrank said:

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
    I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
    See this is a misconception.

    There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

    This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

    This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
    No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
    And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

    Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,963
    edited March 2015



    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
    Really? The same firm are filleting The Mirror, and the QC is very highly regarded.
    http://www.pressgazette.co.uk/plebgate-case-blunder-will-not-cost-andrew-mitchell-legal-team-vow-continue-libel-fight-sun
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    JohnO said:

    antifrank said:

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
    I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
    Nick Palmer has always been unfailingly polite about all Labour leaders.
  • Pulpstar said:

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
    Whats happened with him now ?

    I think he was a victim of this country's libel system tbh. Yes yes I know he kind of made his own bed but I believe him over the copper tbh.
    Paid out 80k to the copper.
  • Cammo going to get some crap over this debate offer, presumably thinks time is right to get it nailed down now rather than drag on further. Might that be as feels stronger with recent polling?

    Looks like Montie is nicking my copy!!

    Tim Montgomerie ن‏@montie·16 secs16 seconds ago
    With Tories slowly moving ahead in polls Cameron would be mad to give Miliband opportunity for momentum. Right decision to kill elxn debates
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,291
    antifrank said:

    JohnO said:

    antifrank said:

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    106 candidates accepted the money. Presumably most of them will feel honour bound to be respectful in their comments about him in future.
    I can't imagine Broxtowe would not be on that list. Has Nick accepted the cash?
    Nick Palmer has always been unfailingly polite about all Labour leaders.
    Indeed he has.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
    Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    In Norwich North, note the high UKIP share. These poor kippers are going to hear an awful lot about the idea of going to bed with Nigel and waking up with Ed. Which is the sort of night that I wouldn't wish on anyone.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

    And does he pay UK tax...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    edited March 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
    Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
    8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @TelePolitics: David Cameron issues 'final offer' over TV debates http://t.co/2zTptVnsfC
  • volcanopetevolcanopete Posts: 2,078
    The Labour leadership must rule out a pact with the Tories after this poll.It's a case of damage limitation.Ian Davidson who has done so much to reveal the blacklisting of workers would be a loss,as would Katy Clarke.This is self-harm by the Scots to remove people of this quality.
    Electoral registration will decide things in the English marginals.There is not long to correct the Tories gerrymandering of the electoral registration.Voter registration will decide these.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Who is that short person with Toby?

    https://t.co/OasFxSXUB4
  • @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
    Remember you have on here, Labour supporters, who in all honesty, say Blair is a Tory.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    R5 running with the story that Cameron has told them (not BBC has learned), that he wants one debate, 7 leaders, must be this month. High stakes from Cameron, could blow up in his face.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/573241301598126080

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/573243024995696640
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Pong said:

    Pong said:

    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

    Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

    SLAB might as well give up and go home.

    Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
    Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
    That's what I found so astonishing. Based on the westminster constituency yes % breakdown, I was fairly confident that Edinburgh SW would underwhelm SNP expectations - Especially given the fairly low levels of deprivation.

    I had the more affluent labour seats with decent majorities, like Edinburgh S, W & SW & East renfrewshire as *difficult* for the SNP to breach 30%. How wrong was I...

    There's plenty of deprived council estates in Edinburgh (though not to the Glasgow extent) between the posh areas.

    oh yes, i'm sure - I don't know Edinburgh at all.

    I was largely relying on the SIND stats/constituency data.
    Edinburgh is inevitably similar to London in that way - lots of rich / well paid / educated people making the stats look good but also meaning a lot of inequality.

  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited March 2015
    HANDBAGS!!!!

    Tim Montgomerie ن‏@montie·40 secs41 seconds ago
    Enjoying @May2015 giving @MSmithsonPB a thoroughly deserved kicking https://twitter.com/May2015NS/status/573233597307596801


    Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted
    May2015‏@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago
    If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015
    Cameron's behavior Re. the debate's is quite outrageous, to be honest. But the thing is, it looks like he's actually going to get away with it! :smiley:
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Ishmael_X said:

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
    Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
    8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
    I think so. There is much that is obscure about tonight's perfformance.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Camerons position on the debates is completely unacceptable.

    If he is invited and doesnt turn up he should be empty chaired
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    Camerons position on the debates is completely unacceptable.

    If he is invited and doesnt turn up he should be empty chaired

    No broadcaster is going to "empty chair" the Prime Minister...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    HANDBAGS!!!!

    Tim Montgomerie ن‏@montie·40 secs41 seconds ago
    Enjoying @May2015 giving @MSmithsonPB a thoroughly deserved kicking twitter.com/May2015NS/status/573233597307596801 …


    Tim Montgomerie ن retweeted
    May2015‏@May2015NS·50 mins50 minutes ago
    If you like your politics news to be derivative, uncredited and shameless, make sure you're following @MSmithsonPB.


    Aren't they both just working through Lord A's polls, so they would be similar?

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    News from Bradford

    George Galloway ‏@georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago
    I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
    I wonder if Gordon will now donate £2,000 to each of those candidates.

    We know how he likes to outdo Blair.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

    For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

    I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

    The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

    Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
    Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
    LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
    UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
    Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
    SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

    Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Barnesian said:

    I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

    For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

    I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

    The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

    Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
    Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
    LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
    UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
    Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
    SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats

    EICIPM!!
  • @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

    And does he pay UK tax...
    If I was a candidate, I wouldn't touch Blair's money with a bargepole.


  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.

    Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    News from Bradford

    George Galloway ‏@georgegalloway 45s45 seconds ago
    I'm not sure my current New Labour opponent is going to last much longer in the contest than her predecessor. Watch this space...

    Christ no - lol
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340


    Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

    Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

    The Chiltern Firehouse is so last year. The Clove Club is where it's at in early 2015. Though I may be a fortnight out of date now.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    Pulpstar said:

    Am I the only person who thinks Andrew Mitchell has been hard done by ?

    No, his legal team didn't inspire much confidence either.
    Whats happened with him now ?

    I think he was a victim of this country's libel system tbh. Yes yes I know he kind of made his own bed but I believe him over the copper tbh.
    Well, he shouldn't have called the copper a f*cking pleb.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    antifrank said:


    Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

    Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

    The Chiltern Firehouse is so last year. The Clove Club is where it's at in early 2015. Though I may be a fortnight out of date now.
    Lord A going to be giving it a good rating on TripAdvisor then :-)
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Has Blair explained why he's donating money to the Labour campaign? Presumably to strengthen his position if Labour lose? He can say well we tried it Ed's way and I backed him. Now let's go back to doing things my way.
    I know it sounds unlikely and I'm not saying it's true but I heard Blair was a Labour Party supporter, so maybe he wants them to win.
    Remember you have on here, Labour supporters, who in all honesty, say Blair is a Tory.
    I'm probably also loosely Labour-supporting (at least vs Con) but I'd vote for almost any Tory over Tony Blair. However, he probably does still have some genuine loyalty to Labour.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @michaelsavage: BREAKING: Tony Blair has donated £1,000 to every Labour candidate in one of the party's 106 battleground target seats.

    Doesn't Blair work for some fairly unsavoury regimes? Hope it doesn't get used against any of the candidates. *innocent face*

    And does he pay UK tax...
    If I was a candidate, I wouldn't touch Blair's money with a bargepole.


    Pecunia non olet.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    1 debate is still 1 debate too many. But having it before the official start of the campaign will reduce the impact and see off this pointless concept once and for all.

    I agree with Dave!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    GIN1138 said:

    I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.

    Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...

    He has an election to try and win in the first place...I would have thought he might care about that? But then maybe not, chillaxing could well be more appealing.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    edited March 2015
    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 6s 6 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    They should invite Clegg (and Farage?) and empty-chair Cameron
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Plunging Baby Eaters falling apart - Yougov Tie.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Tonights YG EICIPM
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    GIN1138 said:

    I can't imagine whatever happens the broadcasters are going to be very happy with Cameron. Lets say he does get his way, could it be short term gain, long term pain as BBC, Sky, C4 etc pile into him for basically screwing up what would have been a nice little earner.

    Probably, but by all accounts Cameron will be quitting in 2017/2018 anyway, so I doubt he'll care much...

    He has an election to try and win in the first place...I would have thought he might care about that? But then maybe not, chillaxing could well be more appealing.
    The broadcasters will have to be fair through the election campaign. They may try and get revenge afterwards but as long as Cam get's back into Maggie's Den I doubt he'll care...

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
    See this is a misconception.

    There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

    This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

    This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
    No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
    And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

    Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
    And do you think the surge in SNP support is based upon nationalism rather than upon which party is likely to get the most for Scotland ?

    Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Chanel 5's Farage lovers......hatchet job of the highest order.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Can't wait for SeanT to come and tell us that Cameron still really really wants the debates and this is all a negotiating tactic.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736


    Lord Ashcroft ✔ @LordAshcroft

    Just had dinner at the Chiltern Firehouse. Didn't bump into @David_Cameron but it was overrated and underwhelming

    Perhaps he thought it was a debate so chickened out.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    GIN1138 said:

    Just For Fun

    YouGov Prediction:

    Con/Lab Tie!

    Hmmmmm....

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,538
    The last 5 Yougov polls have 1% Con lead, tie, 3% Con lead, 2% Con lead, tie.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    GIN1138 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Just For Fun

    YouGov Prediction:

    Con/Lab Tie!

    Hmmmmm....

    He shoots.....he scores!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Well done Gin again ;-)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133
    GIN1138 said:

    Sun Politics @SunPolitics · 6s 6 seconds ago

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 8%, UKIP 14%, GRN 6%

    Broken sleazy Tories on the slide?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    antifrank said:

    Alistair said:

    Pong said:

    Hmm. So the gordon brown factor in Kirkcaldy was about 8%. I had overestimated his local popularity slightly.

    Edinburgh South West is the real shock of the polls - the SNP @ 40% vs Lab 27% & Con 19%

    SLAB might as well give up and go home.

    Edinburgh South West was 38% Yes at the referendum
    Edinburgh North & Leith was 40% Yes and at longer SNP odds to Edinburgh South West
    I'm on the SNP at 50/1 in Edinburgh North & Leith. Posts like yours are exquisite torture.
    Before dumping all my life savings on it I have to keep reminding myself the Edinburgh North and Leith is more than just Leith. The North part of the name encompasses some of the most snobbish high class bits of Edinburgh.It's a weird constituency.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    Sean_F said:

    The last 5 Yougov polls have 1% Con lead, tie, 3% Con lead, 2% Con lead, tie.

    There's definitely been a move towards Conservative with YouGov over the past week or so...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Re Andrew Mitchell:

    Career in ruins
    Reputation in ruins
    Lost a fortune

    but it was Mitchell who was the victim of the crime !!!

    And the criminals were police.

    Isn't this sort of thing only meant to happen in thugocracies and banana republics ???
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Well done Gin again ;-)

    Indeed very good at this Gin
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    UKIP supporter "piss off back to your own country" followed by "I hope there are no racists in UKIP".....tv journalism at it's highest.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    Barnesian said:

    I find table 1, Page 2 of Ashcroft's National Poll very surprising.

    For instance, of the GE10 LDs, 17% said they'd vote UKIP compared with 12% going to the Greens. Also the Labour core vote at 83% is much higher than the 72% Tory core (because only 8% of Lab are going UKIP compared with 20% of Tory).

    I have adjusted the assumptions of switching behaviour in my model and checked them against the individual constituencies polled. (I don't use "swing" parameters as I consider it old-fashioned and unsuited to what is happening).

    The result, which is only a feasible scenario based on current polling and is therefore not a forecast, is as follows:

    Con 33.5% share, 266 seats
    Lab 33.5% share, 280 seats
    LD 6.8% share, 25 seats
    UKIP 17.5% share, 2 seats
    Grn 4.7% share, 1 seat
    SNP 3.6% share, 55 seats

    In 2010, the LDs had a lot of swing voters and previous non-voter support, courtesy of Clegg's debate performances. It's not unreasonable to see that kind of voter drifting to UKIP. Indeed, the Lib Dems made (and make) great play of not being the other two and many of their former voters backed them mainly in opposition to someone else.

    Similarly, Labour's 2010 score was far closer to their true core vote whereas the Tories' was bulked out by a lot of swing voters who've since moved on. To compare like with like, you'd need baselines where the two parties were at similar positions support-wise (maybe the Tories in 2013, for example). That said, I don't think there's much doubt that many of UKIP's recruits since 2010 were formerly core Con voters.

    I'm intrigued as to why you think UKIP will poll 17.5% when they're currently well below that and falling. Election coverage may help but not all publicity is good publicity.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Toby Perkins MP ‏@tobyperkinsmp 2m2 minutes ago
    Just when you think @SunPolitics couldn't possibly get more ridiculous. This: "David Cameron throws down TV debates gauntlet"

    How can anyone defend the way he has acted over the debates?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Tim Montgomerie ن ✔ @montie

    So, so partisan: @campbellclaret - who did not let Blair debate - attacks Cameron for not debating! https://twitter.com/campbellclaret


    Alastair Campbell ✔ @campbellclaret

    @David_Cameron bottling because he has no record to defend and no vision of the future. If @Ed_Miliband is as bad as he says why so scared?

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Re Andrew Mitchell:

    Career in ruins
    Reputation in ruins
    Lost a fortune

    but it was Mitchell who was the victim of the crime !!!

    And the criminals were police.

    Isn't this sort of thing only meant to happen in thugocracies and banana republics ???

    Apparently the judge thought the policeman was too thick to make up the insult "pleb".

    One man's word against another.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago
    .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Ishmael_X said:

    DavidL said:

    I think this shows some of the problem for constituency polls. Even if they are balanced and reliable they tend to go out of date fairly quickly and reflect the national polling at the time they have taken.

    Since most of these polls were taken there has clearly been a movement in favour of the Tories

    Not in the 8,000 strong Ashcroft National Poll which was carried out only last week .
    Ashcroft national polls are c. 1,000 strong.

    1,003 27th Feb-1st Mar
    1,004 20-22nd Feb
    The one carried out last week and published today was over 8,000
    Nope. And cranking up the sample size beyond what is adequate doesn't improve accuracy.
    8,000 figure comes from 1,000-strong samples in eight marginals?
    Of course it doesn't . Why don't you simply go to his website and study the figures ?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Artist said:

    Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago
    .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.

    Do we really though ?

  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Will Scottish voters please think about my Scottish Tories vs The Pandas bet

    Still highly winnable. Will Berwickshire go SNP or Tory though.

    Mundell probably holds...
    See this is a misconception.

    There seems to be an idea that the Labour Party hierarchy and their vocal social media posters can issue a command and their vote will jump on for the Tories.

    This isn't feasible in Scotland. Labour voters will not vote Tory. If anything, the publicity of the poll will drive Labour voters in Mundells constituency into the arms of a welcoming SNP.

    This isn't West Central Scotland where Sectarianism is in play. Labour voters outside that area are not bound by allegiance to the Union/Queen/Northern Ireland.
    No, it's the rural, conservative Borders, which overwhelmingly voted No at the referendum.
    And which elected SNP MPs in 1974 and 1997.

    Not exactly, given that the seat was only created in 2005. In the two elections it has had, the SNP have polled 9.1 and 10.8%. Given the surge the SNP has had since then, I wouldn't write them off by any means but the idea that it's a hotbed of nationalism seems a little far-fetched. Nor can I see an enormous amount of pro-SNP tactical voting for a party which finished fourth last time coming from one which finished second.
    And do you think the surge in SNP support is based upon nationalism rather than upon which party is likely to get the most for Scotland ?

    Voting SNP is effectively a free vote in Scotland.
    I'd call putting a Labour government in place a very expensive vote.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    These lesbians seem conflicted about UKIP.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,844
    Artist said:

    Nick Clegg @nick_clegg · 14m 14 minutes ago
    .@David_Cameron The British public want the debates so let's get on with it. Stop holding them to ransom by trying to dictate the terms.

    Oh no we don't.
This discussion has been closed.