politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some interesting poll findings

2

LOL!

3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go

Fpt

Indigo said:

madasafish said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.

I remember thinking when the subject first came up that it was obvious Cameron was working from a script delivered by gaming theory...

I remember thinking of clever way Varofakis played his hand at the EU, and how it was almost a model of trying to get the best out of a poor hand (In the end it may transpire that his hand was just too weak regardless of the skill of the player) and wishing Cameron would play our EU negotiations with a similar flair. The fact that his hasn't, and yet he has played the TV debates to perfection is.... interesting.

Wait: Greece got nothing.

The deal for Greece remains exactly what it was: maturity extensions, coupon reductions, and repayments linked to GDP. And in return, they need to run a budget surplus and enact structural reforms.

Tissue_Price said:

buckle my shoe

3

What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

Tissue_Price said:

buckle my shoe

Arf - Bravo. ; )

FrancisUrquhart said:

What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

Just avoided the question

I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)

Please note, I didn't watch PMQs, only saw what people said on twitter.

What was the first question Ed raised at PMQs?

*Innocent Face*

Smarmeron said:

@FrancisUrquhart
It's Prime Ministers Evasions. He wriggled, blustered and then flew off at tangent.
A bit like a woodpecker with a weasel on its back might be your preferred metaphor?
To most other people he looks as though he is soiling his underwear.

Smarmy...That's your opinion. You don't speak for "most other people".. you only speak for yourself.

US Presidential Primaries. Even politico.com is now wondering if Hillary might not run.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/what-if-hillary-clinton-drops-out-115715.html?hp=t4_r#.VPcO4kswwpF

Even more amazing, the New York Times is wondering if Hillary has a death wish and notes that the Clintons love to live on the line between defiance and self-destruction:

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/opinion/frank-bruni-hillary-and-bill-clinton-secrecy-and-state-department-emails.html?ref=opinion&_r=1

@SquareRoot
Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
Yes....probably just me.

Artist said:

Would Labour want to be lumbered with the other small parties if Cameron is empty chaired? On the one hand the chance to speak directly to a massive prime time audience is something that can't be ignored, but the presence of three left leaning anti-austerity parties must make it a far less appealing scenario than the original format. Cameron would still look very bad for missing it, but Labour may not benefit.

The last thing Milliband needs is to be in a debate with Farage and the smaller parties. He needs Cameron alone and Cameron is not going to play.

There will be no debates.

Smarmeron said:

@SquareRoot
Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
Yes....probably just me.

Broaching the subject of vote rigging is never going to be a win for Labour. Zero credibility on the matter.

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

isam said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

Just avoided the question

What was the question...Oi Chubby Chunks when are me and you doing some mud wrestling then?

Or was it the usual why wont you 100% agree to all the debates in the exact format as laid down by the broadcasters? Which Cameron always doesn't give a solid answer to, and so far has rewarded him with much favourable terms.

From memory, Miliband said in response to Cameron saying he was a better leader

"The broadcaster have made a date 30th April, you and me to debate head to head, I will be there, will you?"

Cameron blustered without answering saying he was happy to debate here and now but didn't answer yes or no

Miliband said "Ok lets change the date to whenever you like, will you debate you vs me, if its all about leadership, you should be up for it"

And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc

I expect that'll have swung a lot of waverers in JCRs across the land.

dr_spyn said:

Tin foil hat time.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31717179

Watch out for rattled cages and contributions from conspiracy theorists. Is this being kicked into long grass or will it open up a can of worms?

It isn't actually a new story out of the blue...

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11325064/Murder-link-to-Margaret-Thatcher-aide-accused-of-raping-teenage-boy.html

Clegg has talked about this before Christmas as well.


As some point the ticking time bomb is going to go off, when that is who knows.

TheWatcher said:

Al 'The Hague' Campbell on Radio 5 Live now.

Gotta plug that book.

This is a right wing take on Rahm Emanuel's hiccup in getting re-elected as Chicago's mayor, and its implications for the direction of the Democratic party and Hillary's chances.

Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/

I've stayed as a liberal-lefty-question-the-worldy-type-swing-voter throughout my 20's. No sign of change yet.

But yeah, by the time I retire in the 2050's (If ever), I think it's quite likely I'll be voting for the equivalent of UKIP, wanting the world to go back to how it was in the simple, good old days of 2015.

Smarmeron said:

@Bond_James_Bond
I deduce from your blustering that you are D. Cameron, and I therefore claim my tax free account in Panama!

Tax dodging doesn't play well for Labour either given that Miliband is himself a tax dodger.

Actually, nothing plays well for Labour since on any subject imaginable they are more inept than any alternative imaginable.

Southam reckons he wants a big state. He should vote Conservative. A small state under the Tories will be bigger than a big state would be under an economy-destroying government run by Unite's sockpuppets in the HoC.

SquareRoot said:

Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

I feel sorry for all the politico journos who are now his new obsession, getting tweeted round the clock.

Elections in Wales blog has done some analysis of the EU Parliament elections in Wales by local authority.

http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/02/23/898/

Flightpath said:

SquareRoot said:

I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''

hell no!

I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.

SquareRoot said:

Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

What does tim 'twitter' as?

The details of Hillary's setting up and running her own private email account for use as Secretary of State make it look more premeditated that the aim was to provide her with control over which of her official communications could be accessed under Freedom of Information requests:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/03/04/clintons_email_server_traced_to_home-based_service_125817.html

MTimT said:

This is a right wing take on Rahm Emanuel's hiccup in getting re-elected as Chicago's mayor, and its implications for the direction of the Democratic party and Hillary's chances.

Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.

http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/

The Economist went to the trouble of endorsing Emmanuel (they love his schools policy) but made it clear he had an uphill struggle, so the writer is arguably a bit disingenuous when he says it's amazing. Clearly there is an issue of the left feeling that their leaders aren't leftish enough, as there is in Britain, but they'll rally round Hillary rather more than they would with most centrists.

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

surbiton said:

SandyRentool said:

I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)

I have never understood this point that is often raised. I have always been a democratic socialist and still am. Yes, I have gone on the property ladder, pay tax at a high rate etc. etc. but still vote Labour.

Why should anyone change their vote ? Surely, you vote on what you believe in.

Before anyone jumps up and reminds me of my 2005 and 2010 votes, I voted Lib Dem in 2005 because of Iraq [ Blair was a Tory - I had found out by then ] and in 2010 I voted for them again to keep the Tories out. Obviously, hugely betrayed.

In 2015, I will be voting Labour regardless of the wasted vote !

Society can change; but also one's own beliefs can change, as one experiences different things. These can lead one to move to the right or left of where one was (or where society's mid-point was) when young.

The best example I can think of is the 18-34 year old age cohort, who placed the Conservatives third in the October 1974 general election. The same age cohort voted heavily in favour of EU membership in 1975.

Move forward 41 years, and the same age cohort puts the Conservatives first, UKIP and Labour vying for second, and is strongly in favour of leaving the EU.

Or you could look at the 18-29 year olds who marginally favoured George McGovern in 1972, and heavily favoured Mitt Romney in 2012.

Bond_James_Bond said:

Flightpath said:

SquareRoot said:

I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''.

I'm always bewildered by this kind of remark. By all accounts Hitler, Stalin, Blair, Farage, Rolf Harris, and Anthony Wedgewood Benn all came / come over as thoroughly nice blokes on meeting them. All of them were / are anything but nice, covering there the full spectrum from severely misguided to malevolent to downright homicidal. So this sort of remark amounts to little more than an assertion that while you might not judge a book by its cover, it is worth mentioning that it has a nice cover. If it's not saying that, why make it at all?

Is it all about Iain Dale showing how re rubs shoulders with famous people?

Mr Bond, no, although who knows. I think Iain Dale comes across as a decent bloke - but too decent for the good of his own politics. He says nice things about Yasmin Alibhai-Brown for instance who I think is loathsome. He gives far too much leniency to Labour figures who I think in reality hate his guts.

JohnO said:

SquareRoot said:

Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

What does tim 'twitter' as?

I think its this:

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....

Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....

tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'

Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James

Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork

And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

can't open twitter - what does it say?

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

can't open twitter - what does it say?

"Jihadi unmasked
Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"

I *think* this is Tim's Twitter?

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

Apologies if not...

CarlottaVance said:

JohnO said:

SquareRoot said:

Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

What does tim 'twitter' as?

I think its this:

https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....

Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....

tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'

Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James

Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork

And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....

It sounds familiar. Thankfully, it's no longer being posted here.

Charles said:

Flightpath said:

SquareRoot said:

I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''

hell no!

I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.

And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

can't open twitter - what does it say?

"Jihadi unmasked
Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"

I always thought there was something dodgy about him.

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

can't open twitter - what does it say?

"Jihadi unmasked
Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"

I always thought there was something dodgy about him.

I still can't believe how stupid his question at his first PMQs as acting leader was.

Sir Menzies [...] asked why "one in five schools do not have a permanent head".

As Mr Blair's backbenchers pointed at the leaderless Lib Dems, the PM didn't miss the open goal gifted by Sir Menzies: "It can be difficult to find a permanent head of an organisation when the post is vacant - particularly if it is a failing organisation."

http://www.theguardian.com/news/blog/2006/jan/11/mercilessonmi

Flightpath said:

Charles said:

Flightpath said:

SquareRoot said:

I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''

hell no!

I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.

And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.

A perfect example of what is wrong with politics today. Party before constituency or country.
Shameful.

Pulpstar said:

@GOsborneGenius Looks like a very angry twitter account, definitely close to certain that's Tim.

Hope he doesn't get himself into trouble on there... No OGH to keep him in check and we all know what can happen when he get's carried away....

Election 2015: Who do you think would be the best party of government for the construction industry?

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Liberal Democrat 2%
Green 3%
UKIP 6%
Other 7%

Thank you for voting

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Tissue_Price said:

Sean_F said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

Charles said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

can't open twitter - what does it say?

"Jihadi unmasked
Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"

I always thought there was something dodgy about him.

I still can't believe how stupid his question at his first PMQs as acting leader was.

Sir Menzies [...] asked why "one in five schools do not have a permanent head".

As Mr Blair's backbenchers pointed at the leaderless Lib Dems, the PM didn't miss the open goal gifted by Sir Menzies: "It can be difficult to find a permanent head of an organisation when the post is vacant - particularly if it is a failing organisation."

http://www.theguardian.com/news/blog/2006/jan/11/mercilessonmi

Then there was the classic Dennis Skinner heckle...

"Pensioners...

"Declare your interest!"

Sean_F said:

WRT Lord Ashcroft, his polls have given an average lead of 1% to the Conservatives this year, equivalent to a swing of 3% from Con to Lab.

That's the benchmark we should use to see how the big two are doing in the marginal seats.

I suspect the marginals will show a slightly higher swing from Con to Lab than the national picture - Say 3.5% to 4%.

Crickey...ISIS funded by little old ladies shocker.

Counter-terror police investigating large-scale fraud linked to UK extremists travelling to Syria have arrested two men on suspicion of money-laundering.

The arrests are linked to reports of vulnerable and elderly victims being 'cold called' over the phone by a suspect impersonating a police officer, who informs them their bank account has been compromised, Scotland Yard said.

Victims are then tricked into transferring money to an account under the control of the suspect, with one pensioner losing around £150,000.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2979381/Counter-terror-police-arrest-two-men-cold-call-scam-targeting-elderly-victims.html