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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some interesting poll findings
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some interesting poll findings
As we await the next batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling at 5pm, here’s some appetising hors d’oeuvre from other pollsters appear that go against what most people perceive to be true.
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3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.
Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go
The deal for Greece remains exactly what it was: maturity extensions, coupon reductions, and repayments linked to GDP. And in return, they need to run a budget surplus and enact structural reforms.
Apparently it makes you go bland.
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/572796636268793857
It's Prime Ministers Evasions. He wriggled, blustered and then flew off at tangent.
A bit like a woodpecker with a weasel on its back might be your preferred metaphor?
To most other people he looks as though he is soiling his underwear.
Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?
Or was it the usual why wont you 100% agree to all the debates in the exact format as laid down by the broadcasters? Which Cameron always doesn't give a solid answer to, and so far has rewarded him with much favourable terms.
What was the first question Ed raised at PMQs?
*Innocent Face*
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/what-if-hillary-clinton-drops-out-115715.html?hp=t4_r#.VPcO4kswwpF
Even more amazing, the New York Times is wondering if Hillary has a death wish and notes that the Clintons love to live on the line between defiance and self-destruction:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/opinion/frank-bruni-hillary-and-bill-clinton-secrecy-and-state-department-emails.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
Party appears to be mainly over on that one, but I've managed to get Tory votes, Tory seats at an average of over evens in the electoral bias market which has complemented the Tory Seats, Labour votes long odds in the fixed odds markets.
Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
Yes....probably just me.
"The broadcaster have made a date 30th April, you and me to debate head to head, I will be there, will you?"
Cameron blustered without answering saying he was happy to debate here and now but didn't answer yes or no
Miliband said "Ok lets change the date to whenever you like, will you debate you vs me, if its all about leadership, you should be up for it"
And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc
There will be no debates.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31717179
Watch out for rattled cages and contributions from conspiracy theorists. Is this being kicked into long grass or will it open up a can of worms?
I deduce from your blustering that you are D. Cameron, and I therefore claim my tax free account in Panama!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11325064/Murder-link-to-Margaret-Thatcher-aide-accused-of-raping-teenage-boy.html
Clegg has talked about this before Christmas as well.
As some point the ticking time bomb is going to go off, when that is who knows.
Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.
http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-31715672
But yeah, by the time I retire in the 2050's (If ever), I think it's quite likely I'll be voting for the equivalent of UKIP, wanting the world to go back to how it was in the simple, good old days of 2015.
If of course you can provide any evidence that you ACTUALLY speak for other people.. then fine....
Actually, nothing plays well for Labour since on any subject imaginable they are more inept than any alternative imaginable.
Southam reckons he wants a big state. He should vote Conservative. A small state under the Tories will be bigger than a big state would be under an economy-destroying government run by Unite's sockpuppets in the HoC.
Went through a whole range of "Cameron has screwed this up" "it's going to kill him in the polls" "he's going to be empty-chaired" until he finally realised that Cameron had played it well - either a debate that favoured him or nothing.
But there are II types of people that understand Roman numerals.
Wibbling on about Thatcher turning in her grave. Strange man.
http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/02/23/898/
I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
But Cameron is not going to commit to a time for any debates either. He wants them earlier - which is quite legitimate - so he is not going to agree a time or omit other parties just to please Ed Miliband.
Personally I think these 'debates' are not debates at all and are invariably shallow and a corruption of democracy.
Is it all about Iain Dale showing how re rubs shoulders with famous people?
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/03/04/clintons_email_server_traced_to_home-based_service_125817.html
6.9 If a candidate takes part in an item about his/her particular constituency, or electoral area, then candidates of each of the major parties must be offered the opportunity to take part. (However, if they refuse or are unable to participate, the item may nevertheless go ahead.)
Now I take it that the 'item' in this case would be the debates. If no other debates take place then the Sky debate becomes the 'item'.
http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/broadcasting/broadcast-codes/broadcast-code/elections/
Mr Cameron said: “we’re having a debate now,” before suggesting that he would not take part in any contest after the “short campaign” which begins when Parliament is dissolved at the end of March.
Why should anyone change their vote ? Surely, you vote on what you believe in.
Before anyone jumps up and reminds me of my 2005 and 2010 votes, I voted Lib Dem in 2005 because of Iraq [ Blair was a Tory - I had found out by then ] and in 2010 I voted for them again to keep the Tories out. Obviously, hugely betrayed.
In 2015, I will be voting Labour regardless of the wasted vote !
The best example I can think of is the 18-34 year old age cohort, who placed the Conservatives third in the October 1974 general election. The same age cohort voted heavily in favour of EU membership in 1975.
Move forward 41 years, and the same age cohort puts the Conservatives first, UKIP and Labour vying for second, and is strongly in favour of leaving the EU.
Or you could look at the 18-29 year olds who marginally favoured George McGovern in 1972, and heavily favoured Mitt Romney in 2012.
From a distance the results look almost identical, as does the Ashcroft polling?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/sherwood/
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/broxtowe/
I'd have thought that given your continued contact with the electorate etc. these prices should be the other way around? 10/3 on the Tories in Sherwood looks fair.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies
The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....
Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....
tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'
Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James
Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork
And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....
Why should anyone change their vote? Is the fact that the party has changed beyond all recognition not reason enough, or should we spend our whole lives doing the same as a we did 40 years ago regardless.
Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius
Apologies if not...
The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.
Sir Menzies [...] asked why "one in five schools do not have a permanent head".
As Mr Blair's backbenchers pointed at the leaderless Lib Dems, the PM didn't miss the open goal gifted by Sir Menzies: "It can be difficult to find a permanent head of an organisation when the post is vacant - particularly if it is a failing organisation."
http://www.theguardian.com/news/blog/2006/jan/11/mercilessonmi
Also, he wasn't just negotiating with "the eurogroup" but the IMF too.
Shameful.
That's the benchmark we should use to see how the big two are doing in the marginal seats.
The job of an MP is to represent Kensington.
Neither Portillo or Rifkind had any interest - I only once saw Rifkind in 10 years of living here - he arrived late and left early from the annual Mayor's Service at St. Mary Abbot's
Labour 24%
Conservatives 58%
Liberal Democrat 2%
Green 3%
UKIP 6%
Other 7%
Thank you for voting
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"Pensioners...
"Declare your interest!"
I was away from PB at the time due to being unwell but when I came back he had left us.
At least we've got FPTP which mitigates it, far worse in PR-nations where all that matters is being on the party list and forget about constituencies.
Counter-terror police investigating large-scale fraud linked to UK extremists travelling to Syria have arrested two men on suspicion of money-laundering.
The arrests are linked to reports of vulnerable and elderly victims being 'cold called' over the phone by a suspect impersonating a police officer, who informs them their bank account has been compromised, Scotland Yard said.
Victims are then tricked into transferring money to an account under the control of the suspect, with one pensioner losing around £150,000.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2979381/Counter-terror-police-arrest-two-men-cold-call-scam-targeting-elderly-victims.html