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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited March 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some interesting poll findings

As we await the next batch of Lord Ashcroft marginals polling at 5pm, here’s some appetising hors d’oeuvre from other pollsters appear that go against what most people perceive to be true.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • adamandcatadamandcat Posts: 76
    1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    2
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    buckle my shoe
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    LOL!

    3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

    Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Weird, I never saw anything in PMQ's saying there'd be an empty chair. Where is OGH getting that from?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    Fpt
    Indigo said:

    madasafish said:

    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.


    I remember thinking when the subject first came up that it was obvious Cameron was working from a script delivered by gaming theory...
    I remember thinking of clever way Varofakis played his hand at the EU, and how it was almost a model of trying to get the best out of a poor hand (In the end it may transpire that his hand was just too weak regardless of the skill of the player) and wishing Cameron would play our EU negotiations with a similar flair. The fact that his hasn't, and yet he has played the TV debates to perfection is.... interesting.
    Wait: Greece got nothing.

    The deal for Greece remains exactly what it was: maturity extensions, coupon reductions, and repayments linked to GDP. And in return, they need to run a budget surplus and enact structural reforms.

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Charles said:

    LOL!

    3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

    Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go

    Mike said the debates wouldn't happen. Told us to bet accordingly.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Tissue_Price said:

    buckle my shoe

    3
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Weird, I never saw anything in PMQ's saying there'd be an empty chair. Where is OGH getting that from?

    Presumably Ed will be debating with himself.

    Apparently it makes you go bland.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Charles said:

    LOL!

    3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

    Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go

    It's ok Charles, he traded out at the weekend, to minimal fanfare!

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/572796636268793857
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited March 2015
    Tissue_Price said:

    buckle my shoe

    Arf - Bravo. ; )
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Don't take too much notice of the Yougov question. People like to think they're consistent when they're anything but.
  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

    Just avoided the question
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    @FrancisUrquhart
    It's Prime Ministers Evasions. He wriggled, blustered and then flew off at tangent.
    A bit like a woodpecker with a weasel on its back might be your preferred metaphor?
    To most other people he looks as though he is soiling his underwear.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2015
    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Fascinating Prospect..EdM having a debate with himself..he would probably lose it.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 23,387
    I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    edited March 2015
    isam said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

    Just avoided the question
    What was the question...Oi Chubby Chunks when are me and you doing some mud wrestling then?

    Or was it the usual why wont you 100% agree to all the debates in the exact format as laid down by the broadcasters? Which Cameron always doesn't give a solid answer to, and so far has rewarded him with much favourable terms.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Please note, I didn't watch PMQs, only saw what people said on twitter.

    What was the first question Ed raised at PMQs?

    *Innocent Face*
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

    If Milliband debates with any empty chair he will still come second.

  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @FrancisUrquhart
    It's Prime Ministers Evasions. He wriggled, blustered and then flew off at tangent.
    A bit like a woodpecker with a weasel on its back might be your preferred metaphor?
    To most other people he looks as though he is soiling his underwear.

    Smarmy...That's your opinion. You don't speak for "most other people".. you only speak for yourself.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    Would Labour want to be lumbered with the other small parties if Cameron is empty chaired? On the one hand the chance to speak directly to a massive prime time audience is something that can't be ignored, but the presence of three left leaning anti-austerity parties must make it a far less appealing scenario than the original format. Cameron would still look very bad for missing it, but Labour may not benefit.
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    US Presidential Primaries. Even politico.com is now wondering if Hillary might not run.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/03/what-if-hillary-clinton-drops-out-115715.html?hp=t4_r#.VPcO4kswwpF

    Even more amazing, the New York Times is wondering if Hillary has a death wish and notes that the Clintons love to live on the line between defiance and self-destruction:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/03/04/opinion/frank-bruni-hillary-and-bill-clinton-secrecy-and-state-department-emails.html?ref=opinion&_r=1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    Tissue_Price said:

    Charles said:

    LOL!

    3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

    Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go

    It's ok Charles, he traded out at the weekend, to minimal fanfare!

    https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/572796636268793857
    Alot of people in various betting markets didn't seem to twig that if you back both Conservative Most Seats, Labour most votes and Conservative Most Seats, Conservative most votes then if the Tories get most seats you'll err win money.

    Party appears to be mainly over on that one, but I've managed to get Tory votes, Tory seats at an average of over evens in the electoral bias market which has complemented the Tory Seats, Labour votes long odds in the fixed odds markets.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SquareRoot
    Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
    Yes....probably just me.
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 357
    Artist said:

    Would Labour want to be lumbered with the other small parties if Cameron is empty chaired? On the one hand the chance to speak directly to a massive prime time audience is something that can't be ignored, but the presence of three left leaning anti-austerity parties must make it a far less appealing scenario than the original format. Cameron would still look very bad for missing it, but Labour may not benefit.

    The last thing Milliband needs is to be in a debate with Farage and the smaller parties. He needs Cameron alone and Cameron is not going to play.

    There will be no debates.

  • isamisam Posts: 42,632
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    isam said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

    Just avoided the question
    What was the question...Oi Chubby Chunks when are me and you doing some mud wrestling then?

    Or was it the usual why wont you 100% agree to all the debates in the exact format as laid down by the broadcasters? Which Cameron always doesn't give a solid answer to, and so far has rewarded him with much favourable terms.
    From memory, Miliband said in response to Cameron saying he was a better leader

    "The broadcaster have made a date 30th April, you and me to debate head to head, I will be there, will you?"

    Cameron blustered without answering saying he was happy to debate here and now but didn't answer yes or no

    Miliband said "Ok lets change the date to whenever you like, will you debate you vs me, if its all about leadership, you should be up for it"

    And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    Tin foil hat time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31717179

    Watch out for rattled cages and contributions from conspiracy theorists. Is this being kicked into long grass or will it open up a can of worms?
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Smarmeron said:

    @SquareRoot
    Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
    Yes....probably just me.

    Broaching the subject of vote rigging is never going to be a win for Labour. Zero credibility on the matter.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    JohnO said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Weird, I never saw anything in PMQ's saying there'd be an empty chair. Where is OGH getting that from?

    Presumably Ed will be debating with himself.

    Apparently it makes you go bland.
    That's what happens to master debaters.

  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    isam said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    isam said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    What exactly did Cameron say in regards to debating Miliband? My feed cut out.

    Just avoided the question
    What was the question...Oi Chubby Chunks when are me and you doing some mud wrestling then?

    Or was it the usual why wont you 100% agree to all the debates in the exact format as laid down by the broadcasters? Which Cameron always doesn't give a solid answer to, and so far has rewarded him with much favourable terms.
    From memory, Miliband said in response to Cameron saying he was a better leader

    "The broadcaster have made a date 30th April, you and me to debate head to head, I will be there, will you?"

    Cameron blustered without answering saying he was happy to debate here and now but didn't answer yes or no

    Miliband said "Ok lets change the date to whenever you like, will you debate you vs me, if its all about leadership, you should be up for it"

    And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc
    I expect that'll have swung a lot of waverers in JCRs across the land.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Bond_James_Bond
    I deduce from your blustering that you are D. Cameron, and I therefore claim my tax free account in Panama!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    edited March 2015
    dr_spyn said:

    Tin foil hat time.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-31717179

    Watch out for rattled cages and contributions from conspiracy theorists. Is this being kicked into long grass or will it open up a can of worms?

    It isn't actually a new story out of the blue...

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/crime/11325064/Murder-link-to-Margaret-Thatcher-aide-accused-of-raping-teenage-boy.html

    Clegg has talked about this before Christmas as well.


    As some point the ticking time bomb is going to go off, when that is who knows.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    Al 'The Hague' Campbell on Radio 5 Live now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    TheWatcher said:

    Al 'The Hague' Campbell on Radio 5 Live now.

    Gotta plug that book.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    This is a right wing take on Rahm Emanuel's hiccup in getting re-elected as Chicago's mayor, and its implications for the direction of the Democratic party and Hillary's chances.

    Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,338
    This poll from Wales implies that Ed has a Welsh problem as well.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-31715672
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    I've stayed as a liberal-lefty-question-the-worldy-type-swing-voter throughout my 20's. No sign of change yet.

    But yeah, by the time I retire in the 2050's (If ever), I think it's quite likely I'll be voting for the equivalent of UKIP, wanting the world to go back to how it was in the simple, good old days of 2015.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Smarmeron said:

    @SquareRoot
    Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
    Yes....probably just me.

    Smarmy.. I think you are deliberately misunderstanding me.
    If of course you can provide any evidence that you ACTUALLY speak for other people.. then fine....
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    edited March 2015
    Smarmeron said:

    @Bond_James_Bond
    I deduce from your blustering that you are D. Cameron, and I therefore claim my tax free account in Panama!

    Tax dodging doesn't play well for Labour either given that Miliband is himself a tax dodger.

    Actually, nothing plays well for Labour since on any subject imaginable they are more inept than any alternative imaginable.

    Southam reckons he wants a big state. He should vote Conservative. A small state under the Tories will be bigger than a big state would be under an economy-destroying government run by Unite's sockpuppets in the HoC.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    Shame that he doesn't come back as himself - we've all made some duff predictions - you'd think he could laugh his off..
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    LOL!

    3 tweets from OGH and one by Paul Waugh don't "the great and the good" make.

    Even more so since we all know that OGH has called this one completely wrong from the get-go

    Mike said the debates wouldn't happen. Told us to bet accordingly.
    He eventually got there.

    Went through a whole range of "Cameron has screwed this up" "it's going to kill him in the polls" "he's going to be empty-chaired" until he finally realised that Cameron had played it well - either a debate that favoured him or nothing.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    I feel sorry for all the politico journos who are now his new obsession, getting tweeted round the clock.
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 9,244
    isam said:


    . . .
    And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc

    There are only I0 types of people who understand binary: those that do and those that don't.
    But there are II types of people that understand Roman numerals.
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    If the other debates don't go ahead, I don't think Ofcom rules will allow the Sky head to head to go ahead either.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262
    edited March 2015
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    TheWatcher said:

    Al 'The Hague' Campbell on Radio 5 Live now.

    Gotta plug that book.
    He's still in deep denial about Iraq, and reckons the world would be a safer place with Blair and Bush in charge.

    Wibbling on about Thatcher turning in her grave. Strange man.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Elections in Wales blog has done some analysis of the EU Parliament elections in Wales by local authority.

    http://blogs.cardiff.ac.uk/electionsinwales/2015/02/23/898/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    I feel sorry for all the politico journos who are now his new obsession, getting tweeted round the clock.
    Which comment is this :) ?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
    hell no!

    I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Eastwinger said:

    Artist said:

    Would Labour want to be lumbered with the other small parties if Cameron is empty chaired? On the one hand the chance to speak directly to a massive prime time audience is something that can't be ignored, but the presence of three left leaning anti-austerity parties must make it a far less appealing scenario than the original format. Cameron would still look very bad for missing it, but Labour may not benefit.

    The last thing Milliband needs is to be in a debate with Farage and the smaller parties. He needs Cameron alone and Cameron is not going to play.

    There will be no debates.

    I doubt there will be any debates and you are right that Miliband is not talking about debating with the other parties.
    But Cameron is not going to commit to a time for any debates either. He wants them earlier - which is quite legitimate - so he is not going to agree a time or omit other parties just to please Ed Miliband.
    Personally I think these 'debates' are not debates at all and are invariably shallow and a corruption of democracy.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Hengists_Gift said:

    If the other debates don't go ahead, I don't think Ofcom rules will allow the Sky head to head to go ahead either.

    Not true - just have to allocate time - not format dependant.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''.
    I'm always bewildered by this kind of remark. By all accounts Hitler, Stalin, Blair, Farage, Rolf Harris, and Anthony Wedgewood Benn all came / come over as thoroughly nice blokes on meeting them. All of them were / are anything but nice, covering there the full spectrum from severely misguided to malevolent to downright homicidal. So this sort of remark amounts to little more than an assertion that while you might not judge a book by its cover, it is worth mentioning that it has a nice cover. If it's not saying that, why make it at all?

    Is it all about Iain Dale showing how re rubs shoulders with famous people?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    What does tim 'twitter' as?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    Where can you see this "libellous" comment ?
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    The details of Hillary's setting up and running her own private email account for use as Secretary of State make it look more premeditated that the aim was to provide her with control over which of her official communications could be accessed under Freedom of Information requests:

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2015/03/04/clintons_email_server_traced_to_home-based_service_125817.html
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    If the other debates don't go ahead, I don't think Ofcom rules will allow the Sky head to head to go ahead either.

    Not true - just have to allocate time - not format dependant.
    Says nothing about time here:

    6.9 If a candidate takes part in an item about his/her particular constituency, or electoral area, then candidates of each of the major parties must be offered the opportunity to take part. (However, if they refuse or are unable to participate, the item may nevertheless go ahead.)

    Now I take it that the 'item' in this case would be the debates. If no other debates take place then the Sky debate becomes the 'item'.

    http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/broadcasting/broadcast-codes/broadcast-code/elections/
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,789
    MTimT said:

    This is a right wing take on Rahm Emanuel's hiccup in getting re-elected as Chicago's mayor, and its implications for the direction of the Democratic party and Hillary's chances.

    Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/

    The Economist went to the trouble of endorsing Emmanuel (they love his schools policy) but made it clear he had an uphill struggle, so the writer is arguably a bit disingenuous when he says it's amazing. Clearly there is an issue of the left feeling that their leaders aren't leftish enough, as there is in Britain, but they'll rally round Hillary rather more than they would with most centrists.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11449437/David-Cameron-rules-out-TV-debate-with-Ed-Miliband-a-week-before-election.html

    Mr Cameron said: “we’re having a debate now,” before suggesting that he would not take part in any contest after the “short campaign” which begins when Parliament is dissolved at the end of March.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SandyRentool said:

    I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)

    I have never understood this point that is often raised. I have always been a democratic socialist and still am. Yes, I have gone on the property ladder, pay tax at a high rate etc. etc. but still vote Labour.

    Why should anyone change their vote ? Surely, you vote on what you believe in.

    Before anyone jumps up and reminds me of my 2005 and 2010 votes, I voted Lib Dem in 2005 because of Iraq [ Blair was a Tory - I had found out by then ] and in 2010 I voted for them again to keep the Tories out. Obviously, hugely betrayed.

    In 2015, I will be voting Labour regardless of the wasted vote !
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    surbiton said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    Where can you see this "libellous" comment ?
    its been removed.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5
  • smacssmacs Posts: 1
    Ed Milliband versus a empty chair - I think the chair may win! - certainly the chair would have more charisma
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    edited March 2015
    surbiton said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)

    I have never understood this point that is often raised. I have always been a democratic socialist and still am. Yes, I have gone on the property ladder, pay tax at a high rate etc. etc. but still vote Labour.

    Why should anyone change their vote ? Surely, you vote on what you believe in.

    Before anyone jumps up and reminds me of my 2005 and 2010 votes, I voted Lib Dem in 2005 because of Iraq [ Blair was a Tory - I had found out by then ] and in 2010 I voted for them again to keep the Tories out. Obviously, hugely betrayed.

    In 2015, I will be voting Labour regardless of the wasted vote !
    Society can change; but also one's own beliefs can change, as one experiences different things. These can lead one to move to the right or left of where one was (or where society's mid-point was) when young.

    The best example I can think of is the 18-34 year old age cohort, who placed the Conservatives third in the October 1974 general election. The same age cohort voted heavily in favour of EU membership in 1975.

    Move forward 41 years, and the same age cohort puts the Conservatives first, UKIP and Labour vying for second, and is strongly in favour of leaving the EU.

    Or you could look at the 18-29 year olds who marginally favoured George McGovern in 1972, and heavily favoured Mitt Romney in 2012.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    NickPalmer said:

    MTimT said:

    This is a right wing take on Rahm Emanuel's hiccup in getting re-elected as Chicago's mayor, and its implications for the direction of the Democratic party and Hillary's chances.

    Perhaps some ideologically-influence and self-serving alarmism, but also some kernels of truth.

    http://thefederalist.com/2015/03/03/rahm-emanuels-chicago-run-off-should-terrify-hillaryland/

    The Economist went to the trouble of endorsing Emmanuel (they love his schools policy) but made it clear he had an uphill struggle, so the writer is arguably a bit disingenuous when he says it's amazing. Clearly there is an issue of the left feeling that their leaders aren't leftish enough, as there is in Britain, but they'll rally round Hillary rather more than they would with most centrists.
    Nick, why are you a bigger price (2/5) to retake Broxtowe than Leonie Mathers (a fresh candidate) is to regain Sherwood (2/7)?

    From a distance the results look almost identical, as does the Ashcroft polling?

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/sherwood/
    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/broxtowe/

    I'd have thought that given your continued contact with the electorate etc. these prices should be the other way around? 10/3 on the Tories in Sherwood looks fair.
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    Bond_James_Bond said:

    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''.
    I'm always bewildered by this kind of remark. By all accounts Hitler, Stalin, Blair, Farage, Rolf Harris, and Anthony Wedgewood Benn all came / come over as thoroughly nice blokes on meeting them. All of them were / are anything but nice, covering there the full spectrum from severely misguided to malevolent to downright homicidal. So this sort of remark amounts to little more than an assertion that while you might not judge a book by its cover, it is worth mentioning that it has a nice cover. If it's not saying that, why make it at all?

    Is it all about Iain Dale showing how re rubs shoulders with famous people?
    Mr Bond, no, although who knows. I think Iain Dale comes across as a decent bloke - but too decent for the good of his own politics. He says nice things about Yasmin Alibhai-Brown for instance who I think is loathsome. He gives far too much leniency to Labour figures who I think in reality hate his guts.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Hengists_Gift said:

    TGOHF said:

    Hengists_Gift said:

    If the other debates don't go ahead, I don't think Ofcom rules will allow the Sky head to head to go ahead either.

    Not true - just have to allocate time - not format dependant.
    Says nothing about time here:

    6.9 If a candidate takes part in an item about his/her particular constituency, or electoral area, then candidates of each of the major parties must be offered the opportunity to take part. (However, if they refuse or are unable to participate, the item may nevertheless go ahead.)

    Now I take it that the 'item' in this case would be the debates. If no other debates take place then the Sky debate becomes the 'item'.

    http://stakeholders.ofcom.org.uk/broadcasting/broadcast-codes/broadcast-code/elections/
    Yes but they are not debates about a specific constituency or electoral area.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    JohnO said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    What does tim 'twitter' as?
    I think its this:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

    The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....

    Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....

    tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'

    Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James

    Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork

    And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    surbiton said:

    SandyRentool said:

    I've definitely moved further to the left. If my current self was voting in the 1987 election, I wouldn't be voting SDP. (But not quite SWP either!)

    I have never understood this point that is often raised. I have always been a democratic socialist and still am. Yes, I have gone on the property ladder, pay tax at a high rate etc. etc. but still vote Labour.

    Why should anyone change their vote ? Surely, you vote on what you believe in.

    Before anyone jumps up and reminds me of my 2005 and 2010 votes, I voted Lib Dem in 2005 because of Iraq [ Blair was a Tory - I had found out by then ] and in 2010 I voted for them again to keep the Tories out. Obviously, hugely betrayed.

    In 2015, I will be voting Labour regardless of the wasted vote !
    I voted Labour in 1974, the party of the working class.

    Why should anyone change their vote? Is the fact that the party has changed beyond all recognition not reason enough, or should we spend our whole lives doing the same as a we did 40 years ago regardless.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,792
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
    Is an unfortunate caption.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    rcs1000 said:

    Wait: Greece got nothing.

    Which funnily enough, is exactly what Cameron is going to get from his renegotiation, however at least Varofakis looked like he was trying to make a fight, hence his popularity of 80%+, Dave doesn't hence his is rather less ;)
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Smarmeron said:

    @SquareRoot
    Prime minister who claims television debates are essential for a healthy democracy, declines debates unless he gets to make sure they are rigged in his favour?
    Yes....probably just me.

    Is a healthy democracy just the two main parties that won't get two thirds of the votes between them, or should it include the other parties as well?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
    "Jihadi unmasked
    Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,313
    CarlottaVance said:

    JohnO said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    What does tim 'twitter' as?
    I think its this:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

    The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....

    Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....

    tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'

    Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James

    Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork

    And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....
    Thanks and a kind fellow poster had already directed me to it. My life has been enriched.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    I *think* this is Tim's Twitter?

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Apologies if not...
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    TGOHF said:

    surbiton said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    Where can you see this "libellous" comment ?
    its been removed.
    I always miss the fun! People get banned when I'm not looking, Libellous tweets evaporate before I can read them.....without getting OGH into trouble, can you give us a clue?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    CarlottaVance said:

    JohnO said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Has Tim's libellous comment been removed... Deary me...

    What does tim 'twitter' as?
    I think its this:

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies

    The spiel sounds familiar.....3,000+ tweets and fewer than 80 followers.....bless.....

    Perhaps like the Oscars & BAFTA we should have an 'In Memoriam thread.....

    tim 'he rode a horse, shopped in Morrisons, COULSON!!!!!!!!'

    Comical 'its a victory for Eck' James

    Mick 'SHRIEK!!! You don't understand! Its all about GOTV!' Pork

    And then there was Yellow Box Avery, who at least added to the sum of human knowledge, rather than subtracted from it.....
    It sounds familiar. Thankfully, it's no longer being posted here.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,936
    GIN1138 said:

    I *think* this is Tim's Twitter?

    https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius

    Apologies if not...

    He mentioned "Samantha and the kids" today, so very likely?
  • FlightpathFlightpath Posts: 4,012
    edited March 2015
    Charles said:

    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
    hell no!

    I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
    And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
    The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    edited March 2015
    Definition of echo chamber...3400 tweets, 79 followers. Seems like not many people want to be his friend or listen to his words of wisdom.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
    "Jihadi unmasked
    Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"
    I always thought there was something dodgy about him.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Definition of echo chamber...3400 tweets, 79 followers. Seems like not many people want to be his friend or listen to his words of wisdom.

    Not if you have to listen to the same point being made ad nauseam.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sean_F said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
    "Jihadi unmasked
    Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"
    I always thought there was something dodgy about him.
    I still can't believe how stupid his question at his first PMQs as acting leader was.

    Sir Menzies [...] asked why "one in five schools do not have a permanent head".

    As Mr Blair's backbenchers pointed at the leaderless Lib Dems, the PM didn't miss the open goal gifted by Sir Menzies: "It can be difficult to find a permanent head of an organisation when the post is vacant - particularly if it is a failing organisation."

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/blog/2006/jan/11/mercilessonmi
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    Indigo said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Wait: Greece got nothing.

    Which funnily enough, is exactly what Cameron is going to get from his renegotiation, however at least Varofakis looked like he was trying to make a fight, hence his popularity of 80%+, Dave doesn't hence his is rather less ;)
    Number of cards held by the Greeks: zero
    Also, he wasn't just negotiating with "the eurogroup" but the IMF too.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    Flightpath said:

    Charles said:

    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
    hell no!

    I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
    And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
    The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.
    A perfect example of what is wrong with politics today. Party before constituency or country.
    Shameful.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    @GOsborneGenius Looks like a very angry twitter account, definitely close to certain that's Tim.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    geoffw said:

    isam said:


    . . .
    And Cameron didn't say yes or no etc

    There are only I0 types of people who understand binary: those that do and those that don't.
    But there are II types of people that understand Roman numerals.
    There are two types of people in this world. Those who can extrapolate from incomplete data
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    WRT Lord Ashcroft, his polls have given an average lead of 1% to the Conservatives this year, equivalent to a swing of 3% from Con to Lab.

    That's the benchmark we should use to see how the big two are doing in the marginal seats.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Pulpstar said:

    @GOsborneGenius Looks like a very angry twitter account, definitely close to certain that's Tim.

    Hope he doesn't get himself into trouble on there... No OGH to keep him in check and we all know what can happen when he get's carried away....

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Flightpath said:

    Charles said:

    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
    hell no!

    I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
    And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
    The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.
    The local party should be thinking about their fellow constituents, not the party.

    The job of an MP is to represent Kensington.

    Neither Portillo or Rifkind had any interest - I only once saw Rifkind in 10 years of living here - he arrived late and left early from the annual Mayor's Service at St. Mary Abbot's
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Election 2015: Who do you think would be the best party of government for the construction industry?

    Labour 24%
    Conservatives 58%
    Liberal Democrat 2%
    Green 3%
    UKIP 6%
    Other 7%

    Thank you for voting

    Construction News: http://www.cnplus.co.uk/?cm_ven=ExactTarget&cm_cat=CN_Pro_EM1_04032015&cm_pla=All+Subscribers&cm_lm=shellyjfellows@yahoo.co.uk&WT.tsrc=email&WT.mc_id=CN_Pro_EM1_04032015&&
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GOsborneGenius Looks like a very angry twitter account, definitely close to certain that's Tim.

    Hope he doesn't get himself into trouble on there... No OGH to keep him in check and we all know what can happen when he get's carried away....

    He's not posting on here so far as I can work out... :?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    Tissue_Price said:

    Sean_F said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    @BuzzFeedUKPol: Shocking news about Sir Menzies Campbell: http://t.co/qSxKhjKLI5

    can't open twitter - what does it say?
    "Jihadi unmasked
    Former LibDem Leader Sir Menzies Campbell MP"
    I always thought there was something dodgy about him.
    I still can't believe how stupid his question at his first PMQs as acting leader was.

    Sir Menzies [...] asked why "one in five schools do not have a permanent head".

    As Mr Blair's backbenchers pointed at the leaderless Lib Dems, the PM didn't miss the open goal gifted by Sir Menzies: "It can be difficult to find a permanent head of an organisation when the post is vacant - particularly if it is a failing organisation."

    http://www.theguardian.com/news/blog/2006/jan/11/mercilessonmi
    Then there was the classic Dennis Skinner heckle...

    "Pensioners...

    "Declare your interest!"
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    @GOsborneGenius Looks like a very angry twitter account, definitely close to certain that's Tim.

    Hope he doesn't get himself into trouble on there... No OGH to keep him in check and we all know what can happen when he get's carried away....

    He's not posting on here so far as I can work out... :?
    Didn't he "depart" when someone posted his personal information?

    I was away from PB at the time due to being unwell but when I came back he had left us.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    Sean_F said:

    WRT Lord Ashcroft, his polls have given an average lead of 1% to the Conservatives this year, equivalent to a swing of 3% from Con to Lab.

    That's the benchmark we should use to see how the big two are doing in the marginal seats.

    I suspect the marginals will show a slightly higher swing from Con to Lab than the national picture - Say 3.5% to 4%.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Flightpath said:

    Charles said:

    Flightpath said:

    SquareRoot said:

    I only caught the last three mins of PMQ's

    Dave seemed to be needling poor old Ed Balls.. was there a punch up?

    Sadly it says much for Iain Dale's perspicacity these days that he thinks Ed Balls ''has a great sense of humour and in reality is a thoroughly nice guy''. His column does make one good point - ''Whoever wins Kensington should be someone who you could imagine in ten years’ time leading the Conservative Party and then the country.''
    hell no!

    I want an MP who will care about the constituency, not some favorite of David Cameron he wants to help up the greasy pole.
    And then you will be complaining about the poor quality of some future PM/leader candidate list...
    The issue is not one of being a 'friend'... it is rather one of the executive coming from the legislature. There are enough thick tory backbenchers as it is who will rather grandstand and make the party unelectable. A seat like Kensington offers a good opportunity for the local party to actually think about the party. I do not think that is too selfish.
    A perfect example of what is wrong with politics today. Party before constituency or country.
    Shameful.
    That's party politics for you. Same in any democracy in the world.

    At least we've got FPTP which mitigates it, far worse in PR-nations where all that matters is being on the party list and forget about constituencies.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,620
    Crickey...ISIS funded by little old ladies shocker.

    Counter-terror police investigating large-scale fraud linked to UK extremists travelling to Syria have arrested two men on suspicion of money-laundering.

    The arrests are linked to reports of vulnerable and elderly victims being 'cold called' over the phone by a suspect impersonating a police officer, who informs them their bank account has been compromised, Scotland Yard said.

    Victims are then tricked into transferring money to an account under the control of the suspect, with one pensioner losing around £150,000.

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2979381/Counter-terror-police-arrest-two-men-cold-call-scam-targeting-elderly-victims.html
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