politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be Ed Miliband’s First Question in this week’s PM

SouthamObserver said:

Scotland-based PBers, I'd be interested to know how the death of Dave McKay has been covered. He may well have been the greatest player Spurs ever had. Hopefully, the tributes in the papers up there have been long and fulsome.

Telly was flooded with it last night , he was greatest Hearts ever as well. Not as big in the papers given the action on Rangers , all are full of the EGM and if there will be any board members left to sack or any left brave enough to face the crowd. Only 2 left and those are Ashley's henchmen, sacked on Friday for sure. Then it will be down to battle with Ashley to free the club.

@dr_spyn
Missed out the "to" reality, as well.
Caffeine deficiency!

TheWatcher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

My feed cut out...Did Ed fire 6 questions all on immigration?

Yes.

No, second half was on pressing for head-to-head debate.

Sunderland Central - must be one of the favourites for first declaration.

Ed didn't ask anything about the industrial scale hacking going on at the Daily Mirror? I am shocked I tell you, shocked.

CarlottaVance said:

Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?

Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.

So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......

The cap is the number of people with the requisite skills coming to the UK.

Tories in Hazel Grove @ 11/4 makes some appeal given the national movements since the good Lord polled in November:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/hazel-grove/
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/hazel-grove/winning-party

Two explosive incidents today at Chemistry Depts at Universities of Liverpool & Manchester - hope it is no more than an remote coincidence.

TheScreamingEagles said:

PB Tories always right.

You should learn from me.

Well done TSE, endorsed by yours truly and at a very handsome price too!

TheWatcher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ed didn't ask anything about the industrial scale hacking going on at the Daily Mirror? I am shocked I tell you, shocked.

And nothing on Housing, HSBC, or Tuition Fees. So many missed opportunities.

Whats there to go with on housing, both Labour and Conservatives are planning to brick over the country in double quick time ?

Indigo said:

Pulpstar said:

TheWatcher said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Ed didn't ask anything about the industrial scale hacking going on at the Daily Mirror? I am shocked I tell you, shocked.

And nothing on Housing, HSBC, or Tuition Fees. So many missed opportunities.

Whats there to go with on housing, both Labour and Conservatives are planning to brick over the country in double quick time ?

Unlike the Green Party who from all accounts plan to plywood it over

Ferrari got there first!

What was that about? Is Ed trying to revive UKIP on the basis that it will hurt the Tories more? TSE pointed out last night that in that poll at least UKIP were up 11% from 2010 and the Tories down 1% but it is a theory.

Maybe he was scared of bringing up health given the Furness story. But a PMQ not focussed on the NHS is a PMQ wasted for Ed. He has 3 left.

CarlottaVance said:

James Chapman tweets: Cameron asks how many MPs are going to put Ed M on their leaflets. Scot Nats all put their hands up

ROFL

hats off to the Nats !

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Putney, any thoughts/questions on the spread betting for F1? I don't dabble myself [if I win the prediction competition and the prize I may start], but quite enjoy our traditional pre-season chat about it.

To be honest, I haven't really boned up yet on the new season - tend to find all the seemingly endless practising in Spain a mite tedious.
I'll try to take a keener interest though ahead of the Oz GP.

Jo Coburn just name checked the wrong Miliband as Labour Leader.

Mr. Putney, fair enough (testing has been the same this year as last, except that there seems to be a shorter gap between its end and the first race).

dr_spyn said:

Jo Coburn just name checked the wrong Miliband as Labour Leader.

The fact that Cameron's name is David probably doesn't help that

antifrank said:

It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.

Doesn't want to give more publicity to the fact that his tuition fee cut only helps the highest paid graduates and will starve universities of funding. Having a clip of the PM on the evening bulletin saying that Labour only wants to help the best paid graduates wouldn't be very helpful. Better to avoid it and hope that people don't realise that it is a con and that journalists continue to not hold Labour to account on these stupid policies.

Mr. Eagles, whilst I hope Labour suffers a great defeat in the election, let's hope Miliband doesn't react the same way Samuel did at the comparable moment in history.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kleidion#Prisoners

[Also, I'm pleased to see you recognising Basil II's undoubted excellence].

Pulpstar said:

Sunderland Central - must be one of the favourites for first declaration.

Yes the Sunderland seats will rightly be amongst the favourites for 1st declaration but if you are looking for better value look at seats with no local elections this year .London seats , Scottish seats and my outsider Cheltenham are amongst this group .

GIN1138 said:

How many PMQ's left between now and dissolution? Can't be any more than 4?

Three but the 18th March precedes the budget and will be irrelevant

Indigo said:

weejonnie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?

Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.

So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......

The cap is the number of people with the requisite skills coming to the UK.

It's strange some people seem to be obsessed with letting in every last European unskilled labourer on the off chance that we might have a couple of street sweeping jobs going, and are happy to educate their children, tend their sicknesses, and distribute benefits to them and their family on the off chance that this happy employment might eventually come about.

Skilled jobs create other jobs which may or may not be as skilled as the spending power of these workers adds to demand. In the end if that demand is not met the economy fails to reach its potential and for good measure we get wage inflation which only benefits the strongest most bullying in society.
I think it was Charles who pointed out the other day that we are at or very close to realistic full employment. We have record numbers of people in work. Unemployment is falling despite immigration. Amazingly this is not creating inflation. Immigration, a lot of which is non permanent economic migration, is not denying jobs to those who want them. Economic migrants will return home as their own country's economies grow.
The real social disaster in Britain is all those who do not want work or are unemployable. Increasingly you can add to that those people who simply to put it politely do not like immigrants.

peter_from_putney said:

"I trusted my instincts

TSE - do you still take Labour to win the most seats at GE 2015?
Btw - has OGH expressed an opinion yet as regards the outcome .... a Labour win, of course, but by what extent?

I'm convinced the Tories will win the popular vote more than ever.

Now I'm unsure about Labour winning most seats due to a mixture of Scotland and I'm thinking the Lib Dems are going to be mullered which helps the Tories.

If I had to bet now I'd go for the Tories to be ahead of Labour on seats by around 30.

Jessica Parker @MarkerJParker · Feb 20
"#UKIP is run by dirty old men in anoraks." Cllr Tony Hooke (former UKIP Councillor)
http://www.dailyecho.co.uk/news/11271494._/

@paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.

Flightpath said:

Indigo said:

weejonnie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?

Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.

So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......

The cap is the number of people with the requisite skills coming to the UK.

It's strange some people seem to be obsessed with letting in every last European unskilled labourer on the off chance that we might have a couple of street sweeping jobs going, and are happy to educate their children, tend their sicknesses, and distribute benefits to them and their family on the off chance that this happy employment might eventually come about.

Skilled jobs create other jobs which may or may not be as skilled as the spending power of these workers adds to demand. In the end if that demand is not met the economy fails to reach its potential and for good measure we get wage inflation which only benefits the strongest most bullying in society.
I think it was Charles who pointed out the other day that we are at or very close to realistic full employment. We have record numbers of people in work. Unemployment is falling despite immigration. Amazingly this is not creating inflation. Immigration, a lot of which is non permanent economic migration, is not denying jobs to those who want them. Economic migrants will return home as their own country's economies grow.
The real social disaster in Britain is all those who do not want work or are unemployable. Increasingly you can add to that those people who simply to put it politely do not like immigrants.

Most people would regard static real wages as a bad thing, not a good thing.

Sean_F said:

Flightpath said:

Indigo said:

weejonnie said:

CarlottaVance said:

Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?

Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.

So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......

The cap is the number of people with the requisite skills coming to the UK.

It's strange some people seem to be obsessed with letting in every last European unskilled labourer on the off chance that we might have a couple of street sweeping jobs going, and are happy to educate their children, tend their sicknesses, and distribute benefits to them and their family on the off chance that this happy employment might eventually come about.

Skilled jobs create other jobs which may or may not be as skilled as the spending power of these workers adds to demand. In the end if that demand is not met the economy fails to reach its potential and for good measure we get wage inflation which only benefits the strongest most bullying in society.
I think it was Charles who pointed out the other day that we are at or very close to realistic full employment. We have record numbers of people in work. Unemployment is falling despite immigration. Amazingly this is not creating inflation. Immigration, a lot of which is non permanent economic migration, is not denying jobs to those who want them. Economic migrants will return home as their own country's economies grow.
The real social disaster in Britain is all those who do not want work or are unemployable. Increasingly you can add to that those people who simply to put it politely do not like immigrants.

Most people would regard static real wages as a bad thing, not a good thing.

Depends whether you've just suffered the worst economic crisis for 80 years, I guess.

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.

I think what the broadcasters have failed to see is that yes lots of people watched them and will watch them, but inside the bubble they seem a lot more important than they really are. In the broadcast bubble they biggest thing going and talk of who is / isn't in them is big big news, in the real world, totally different kettle of fish. What matters is stuff like jobs, NHS, etc, not which windbags are / aren't going to be in a debate and how many of these debates there might be.

A little joke for the mathematically minded:
√-1 2^3 ∑ π - it was delicious!

Mr Wifflestick

Indeed
i 8 sum pi
I ate some pie

Scott_P said:

@faisalislam: income gains most for richest under Brown... Lose most under coalition, accounting for rates of inflation by income: http://t.co/VveTFmdnz5

Top tax rate for the entire Labour 13 years was 45% and put to 50% only in the dying moments of Brown's premiership as a 'fuck you very much' for Dave. And now the cynical bastards decry Ozzy if he suggests going back to 45%, even if that raises more revenue. Hypocrites.

dr_spyn said:

Patrick said:

A little joke for the mathematically minded:
√-1 2^3 ∑ π - it was delicious!

There was a mathematician called Hall,
who had a hexagonal ball,

There was a young man from Devizes
Whose balls were of different sizes
One was so small it was no ball at all
But the other one won several prizes

Alex Wickham ‏@WikiGuido

But Survation say he's 102 RT @MrHarryCole: It's @LordAshcroft's birthday. A snapshot of his age is between 68 and 70.

Alanbrooke said:

CarlottaVance said:

James Chapman tweets: Cameron asks how many MPs are going to put Ed M on their leaflets. Scot Nats all put their hands up

ROFL

hats off to the Nats !

Yes... I wonder how many kippers will put Farage on their leaflets?

Sky News

Mohammed Emwazi's family being put into a safe house by counter terrorism officers
Kostandinos Erik Scurfield dies fighting IS for the British Army

Looks some immigrants assimilate better than others...

OldKingCole said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.

I think what the broadcasters have failed to see is that yes lots of people watched them and will watch them, but inside the bubble they seem a lot more important than they really are. In the broadcast bubble they biggest thing going and talk of who is / isn't in them is big big news, in the real world, totally different kettle of fish. What matters is stuff like jobs, NHS, etc, not which windbags are / aren't going to be in a debate and how many of these debates there might be.

Nevertheless, if a several way discussion is announced on BBC or ITV and Cameron isn’t there those lots of currently uninterested people will suddenly become so.

I don't disagree if we get to that stage...I was talking more about this false war....to the BBC or ITV or Sky etc this is all a huge deal, to the public it really isn't.

My point is how we get to the debates and what format they take wont register...it will register if Cameron is empty chaired, but that wont happen. Either the whole thing will get tied down in legal challenges and everybody falling out, or Cameron will turn up.

As currently laid out, I think Cameron has got a good deal out of his posturing. TBH, nobody can win a 7 way debate, and if Cameron doesn't think he can out argue Ed Miliband, well not sure he deserves another go in No. 10.

Smarmeron said:

"Output per hour in Britain is 29% lower than in US and 24% lower than in Germany and France, ONS says "
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2013/sep/18/productivity-gap-uk-g7-output

Never mind the quality, feel the width?

It's due to all the time wasted spent writing comments on PB. Mike's fault.

The Joseph Rowntree Charitable Trust said it stood by its funding.

"We believe (Cage) has played an important role in highlighting the ongoing abuses at Guantanamo Bay and at many other sites around the world, including many instances of torture," it said in a statement.

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/03/04/uk-mideast-crisis-jihadijohn-cage-idUKKBN0M00IS20150304

Disgraceful. To be conned into giving money to an organisation that isn't quite what it seems is one thing, but this is totally different. How much evidence do the people who run the Trust need? I can't image what Quaker Joseph would think.

@FrancisUrquhart
Cameron is not in a good place if he avoids the debates. Every time he prevaricates and wriggles in the media, it will be matched by his statements about the debates before the last election.
A new intern in an ad agency could assemble a pretty awkward campaign about it, just from YouTube alone.

Pulpstar said:

Tissue_Price said:

Pulpstar said:

England footballers would do well to remember this equation: b.4 √-1 √u (ru/4^2)

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_HJQAEVEAIhYzl.jpg:large

John Terry, Wayne Rooney and Adam Johnson walked into a bar...

Rolf Harris, Gary Glitter & Max Clifford walk into an Irish bar...

"..not Yewtree again."

SouthamObserver said:

Scotland-based PBers, I'd be interested to know how the death of Dave McKay has been covered. He may well have been the greatest player Spurs ever had. Hopefully, the tributes in the papers up there have been long and fulsome.

Afternoon, Mr O.

A fair chunk of the sports coverage in the National this morning. Should be on the website thenational.scot or national.scot or similar.

coolagorna said:

All the Tory commentators are agreed on todays PMQs

The most one sided of the entire parliament...and all in
favour of Mili junior being the winner by a country mile

Iain Dale reckons it was the most embarassing performance
by the PM he could remember

Not seen it myself so I cant judge yet but if correct thats the second week
running that Dave has been humiliated...little wonder he is
desperate to avoid any debates at all next month

For balance, here's a Labour commentator:

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/pmqs-review-confident-cameron-blusters-through-immigration-and-tv-debates

Basically, Miliband had the stronger arguments (as you'd expect, given that he picks the topic!) but Cameron looks like a winner and Ed, bluntly, doesn't.

anotherDave said:

seat prediction from political studies association. Lab 282, Con 278 SNP 29, LD 25, UKIP 6, Green 2

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B5Ik-gKDMpoza1hwUG5Oa3VnSlE/view?pli=1

Out of date already - most of these experts would be falling over themselves to change their prediction given the last few polls.

New Thread

coolagorna said:

All the Tory commentators are agreed on todays PMQs

The most one sided of the entire parliament...and all in
favour of Mili junior being the winner by a country mile

Iain Dale reckons it was the most embarassing performance
by the PM he could remember

Not seen it myself so I cant judge yet but if correct thats the second week
running that Dave has been humiliated...little wonder he is
desperate to avoid any debates at all next month

So humiliated that BBC presenter name checks David Miliband as leader of Labour Party, so much for the strong Red Ed brand.

Indigo said:

madasafish said:

Scott_P said:

@paulwaugh: One key lesson from TV debates fiasco. Tories have run rings round the broadcasters, playing em like a cheap fiddle.

I remember thinking when the subject first came up that it was obvious Cameron was working from a script delivered by gaming theory...

I remember thinking of clever way Varofakis played his hand at the EU, and how it was almost a model of trying to get the best out of a poor hand (In the end it may transpire that his hand was just too weak regardless of the skill of the player) and wishing Cameron would play our EU negotiations with a similar flair. The fact that his hasn't, and yet he has played the TV debates to perfection is.... interesting.

Wait: Greece got nothing.

The deal for Greece remains exactly what it was: maturity extensions, coupon reductions, and repayments linked to GDP. And in return, they need to run a budget surplus and enact structural reforms.