politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be Ed Miliband’s First Question in this week’s PM
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TTv7UoK8oJYnigel4england said:
The same 'business elite' that told us we would all be in tatters by now if we didn't join the Euro?Richard_Nabavi said:
Ignoring the views of the 'business elite' as you call them (I would prefer the phrase 'people who actually know what they are talking about') is an experiment which has been tried in many countries, most recently by François Hollande. We may be about to see the experiment repeated here under Ed Miliband.Indigo said:I believe it's that sort of view that the views of the business elite trump the views of the voters that has cost the Conservatives so heavily.
The results are always the same.
I would sooner trust the judgement of Roland Rat than that of Roland Rudd.0 -
What did you think about the end to Dexter? I liked it, but I know a lot of fans were furious.Plato said:Carrying on the TV theme - I have to give Top Marks to Dexter's depiction of the Four Horsemen. Just superbly done.
The attention to detail, the Miami sunshine and shock was fantastically gruesome.Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.0 -
@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.0 -
Well said. The debate has shifted hugely over the last 20 years. I hope and believe it will do so again over the next 20 years, and by 2035 we will have left.Sean_F said:
It's perfectly rational for the leaders of some mutlinational businesses to favour ever-closer union with the rest of the EU. Particularly if they come from another EU member state and have no real ties to this country. Their aim, indeed their fiduciary duty, is to maximise the profitablility of their company.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ignoring the views of the 'business elite' as you call them (I would prefer the phrase 'people who actually know what they are talking about') is an experiment which has been tried in many countries, most recently by François Hollande. We may be about to see the experiment repeated here under Ed Miliband.Indigo said:I believe it's that sort of view that the views of the business elite trump the views of the voters that has cost the Conservatives so heavily.
The results are always the same.
But, I see no reason why I should have to share the same aims.0 -
Southam indicated yesterday that whilst he could not vote for Gordon he will be voting Labour this time although he reckons Ed will be rather crap.Scott_P said:
If you couldn't bring yourself to vote for Gordo, why on Earth would you vote for Ed?Millsy said:What distinguishes the two YouGov polls this week is that the Tories have better 2010 voter retention than Labour
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I found it a bit wet. How did he get back to shore? I'd rather he was exposed in the final show myself.
I liked the finale of House, MD with the motorcycle exit. Smallville was APPALLING. Ditto Lost.
Danny's wedding in Boston Legal was wonderfully sweet. I thought Buffy's was superb. X-Files - hmmpf.
Covert Affairs was neat, White Collar fitting.Anorak said:
What did you think about the end to Dexter? I liked it, but I know a lot of fans were furious.Plato said:Carrying on the TV theme - I have to give Top Marks to Dexter's depiction of the Four Horsemen. Just superbly done.
The attention to detail, the Miami sunshine and shock was fantastically gruesome.Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.0 -
Can't see Edinburgh East going anything but SNP - I might be wrong but that's betting. Not really tempted to lay off here, reckon it'll go exactly the same way the Scottish vote does nationally.Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.0 -
The UK is more than just an economy with a balance sheet. Some Conservatives seem to forget this.Sean_F said:
If UKIP won an election, they would almost certainly consider having immigration controls with the EU as being more of a priority than a free market in services.Richard_Nabavi said:
Because we would have as an absolute priority a free market in services, which isn't really practical without free movement of labour, and because there is no realistic prospect of a special exception being made by our EU friends compared with Switzerland, Norway etc.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Nabavi, obviously?
I fail to see why a trade treaty necessitates total freedom of movement.0 -
Looks like a purple Nuremberg... chanting, deity worship.Scott_P said:@JamesTapsfield: Message to steven woolfe from farage at Ukip immigration announcement venue? http://t.co/ic8OB81BYV
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That's a useful anecdote for two reasons:Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
1) It shows that there's still some life in Scottish Labour.
2) Scottish Labour clearly haven't given up on a seat that looks very challenging for them in the post-referendum world - but that is ambiguous, because they might not have fully appreciated the scale of the challenge that they're facing, so they may be wasting resources that could more usefully have been invested elsewhere.
Personally I wouldn't lay off, because energy isn't going to be enough to win back all that many votes in a change election, but you will know the seat far better than I ever will.0 -
The interesting thing is will the lessons of the Scottish Indy ref by learnt by both sides in the EU referendum?Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
OUT need to learn to put the sunny optimistic case
IN need to stop fearmongering and come up with a positive case that it represents our long term future
To be honest, so far, I haven't been impressed by either, although I am a BOO'er. OUT needs to start putting in the groundwork now in order to win in 2017.0 -
I am using my vote to do what I can to prevent a majority Tory government and in my nominally marginal constituency that means voting Labour. I fundamentally disagree with the idea of shrinking the size of the state and for me that is the biggest, most important long-term issue. My Labour vote will be cast solely on that basis and with deep regret there is not a party out there right now that I can lend positive support to.Floater said:
Southam indicated yesterday that whilst he could not vote for Gordon he will be voting Labour this time although he reckons Ed will be rather crap.Scott_P said:
If you couldn't bring yourself to vote for Gordo, why on Earth would you vote for Ed?Millsy said:What distinguishes the two YouGov polls this week is that the Tories have better 2010 voter retention than Labour
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Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with our EU friends, which brings me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, the bigger the extent of change in those issues which Kippers get excited about, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.0 -
On PMQs Miliband must go with phone hacking at The Mirror. He made a big thing about it and now it's been discovered happening on an industrial scale at another Newspaper group. Maybe it will brush over the public but I can't imagine the media will ever respect him again if he ignores it.
Regarding business leaders and the EU, I'm surprised looking at Mori's veracity index that business leaders have never been well trusted. However I suspect they're probably considered less competent or public spirited than they were 10 years ago.0 -
I'd have thought her personal efforts may lead her to losing by perhaps 7 or 8 points rather than 13 or 14...0
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You did it again.Richard_Nabavi said:wouldn't make much difference to immigration.
Look at TTIP:Chapter IV, Articles 24 to 28 would allow free movement of business managers, and other employees of a corporation, for temporary work purposes among all countries party to the agreement.[26] Article 1(2) makes it clear, however, that no more general free movement of workers and citizens is allowed.
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Fearmongering won it (just about) in Scotland. Alex Salmond was never credible on the currency issue.Casino_Royale said:
The interesting thing is will the lessons of the Scottish Indy ref by learnt by both sides in the EU referendum?Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
OUT need to learn to put the sunny optimistic case
IN need to stop fearmongering and come up with a positive case that it represents our long term future
To be honest, so far, I haven't been impressed by either, although I am a BOO'er. OUT needs to start putting in the groundwork now in order to win in 2017.
But, it won't be enough in the longer term to keep Scotland in the Union.0 -
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.0 -
It is not a case of ignoring them. It is a case of listening to them, analysing them and then coming to a reasoned conclusion - in this case the conclusion that they are scaremongering. As has already been pointed out the same people said exactly the same things about membership of the single currency with a number if big multinationals at the time saying they would pull out of the UK if we did not join. If course they did not in spite of their threats being seized upon by the Euro fanatics.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ignoring the views of the 'business elite' as you call them (I would prefer the phrase 'people who actually know what they are talking about') is an experiment which has been tried in many countries, most recently by François Hollande. We may be about to see the experiment repeated here under Ed Miliband.Indigo said:I believe it's that sort of view that the views of the business elite trump the views of the voters that has cost the Conservatives so heavily.
The results are always the same.
So your definition if these businessman as 'people who actually know what they are talking about' has already been proved to be inaccurate.0 -
Perhaps Miliband will lead on this?
Ed Balls, the shadow chancellor, has just put out this statement about George Osborne’s Today interview.
George Osborne was asked six times whether he discussed allegations of tax evasion at HSBC with Lord Green, the bank’s former chairman, and six times he refused to answer.
What has George Osborne got to hide? People will draw their own conclusions from his total failure to answer.
The chancellor also struggled to explain why, since the government received these files in May 2010, only one person has been prosecuted out of 1100 names.
David Cameron and George Osborne must now come clean about their discussions with Lord Green - both while he was a Tory minister and before they appointed him.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/blog/live/2015/mar/04/nigel-farage-announces-ukips-immigration-policy-politics-live-blog0 -
The performance of our business leaders over the years might lead some to doubt that they actually have that much wisdom to share with the rest of us.FrankBooth said:On PMQs Miliband must go with phone hacking at The Mirror. He made a big thing about it and now it's been discovered happening on an industrial scale at another Newspaper group. Maybe it will brush over the public but I can't imagine the media will ever respect him again if he ignores it.
Regarding business leaders and the EU, I'm surprised looking at Mori's veracity index that business leaders have never been well trusted. However I suspect they're probably considered less competent or public spirited than they were 10 years ago.
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I agree.Casino_Royale said:I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.
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A further thought: what is described can be interpreted as being down to Ms Gilmore alone, not SLAB as a party (or the local SLAB party for that matter). So it is difficult to interpret. Is that circular letter from SLAB or her at the HoC?antifrank said:
That's a useful anecdote for two reasons:Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
1) It shows that there's still some life in Scottish Labour.
2) Scottish Labour clearly haven't given up on a seat that looks very challenging for them in the post-referendum world - but that is ambiguous, because they might not have fully appreciated the scale of the challenge that they're facing, so they may be wasting resources that could more usefully have been invested elsewhere.
Personally I wouldn't lay off, because energy isn't going to be enough to win back all that many votes in a change election, but you will know the seat far better than I ever will.
(I note BTW that she is blatantly breaching the principle under which MPs keep out of MSP business, too. Part of the current SLA attempt to conflate Westminster and Holyrood. Not a great help to rational political debate.)
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I've looked at what I can lay off for and it's not worth it so I am letting this one ride.antifrank said:
That's a useful anecdote for two reasons:Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
1) It shows that there's still some life in Scottish Labour.
2) Scottish Labour clearly haven't given up on a seat that looks very challenging for them in the post-referendum world - but that is ambiguous, because they might not have fully appreciated the scale of the challenge that they're facing, so they may be wasting resources that could more usefully have been invested elsewhere.
Personally I wouldn't lay off, because energy isn't going to be enough to win back all that many votes in a change election, but you will know the seat far better than I ever will.
I believe that Gilmore was picked out for praise in that leaked e-mail criticising crappy Glasgow SLab MPs for their appalling contact rate.0 -
I was at a debate where Lord Layard predicted that the UK would become "the poor man of Europe" outside the Euro.Richard_Tyndall said:
It is not a case of ignoring them. It is a case of listening to them, analysing them and then coming to a reasoned conclusion - in this case the conclusion that they are scaremongering. As has already been pointed out the same people said exactly the same things about membership of the single currency with a number if big multinationals at the time saying they would pull out of the UK if we did not join. If course they did not in spite of their threats being seized upon by the Euro fanatics.Richard_Nabavi said:
Ignoring the views of the 'business elite' as you call them (I would prefer the phrase 'people who actually know what they are talking about') is an experiment which has been tried in many countries, most recently by François Hollande. We may be about to see the experiment repeated here under Ed Miliband.Indigo said:I believe it's that sort of view that the views of the business elite trump the views of the voters that has cost the Conservatives so heavily.
The results are always the same.
So your definition if these businessman as 'people who actually know what they are talking about' has already been proved to be inaccurate.0 -
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree.Casino_Royale said:I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!0 -
Global Britain have been doing this for many years. They just don't get much publicity for it.Sean_F said:
Fearmongering won it (just about) in Scotland. Alex Salmond was never credible on the currency issue.Casino_Royale said:
The interesting thing is will the lessons of the Scottish Indy ref by learnt by both sides in the EU referendum?Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
OUT need to learn to put the sunny optimistic case
IN need to stop fearmongering and come up with a positive case that it represents our long term future
To be honest, so far, I haven't been impressed by either, although I am a BOO'er. OUT needs to start putting in the groundwork now in order to win in 2017.
But, it won't be enough in the longer term to keep Scotland in the Union.0 -
OTOH Edinburgh East has an almost Glasgow size "Yes" vote (49%) and her majority is far smaller than alot of the Glasgow ones.Alistair said:
I've looked at what I can lay off for and it's not worth it so I am letting this one ride.antifrank said:
That's a useful anecdote for two reasons:Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
1) It shows that there's still some life in Scottish Labour.
2) Scottish Labour clearly haven't given up on a seat that looks very challenging for them in the post-referendum world - but that is ambiguous, because they might not have fully appreciated the scale of the challenge that they're facing, so they may be wasting resources that could more usefully have been invested elsewhere.
Personally I wouldn't lay off, because energy isn't going to be enough to win back all that many votes in a change election, but you will know the seat far better than I ever will.
I believe that Gilmore was picked out for praise in that leaked e-mail criticising crappy Glasgow SLab MPs for their appalling contact rate.
So she'll probably do better than the average Glasgow MP in terms of swing against her, but even 'hard working' Willie Bain had a 25% swing or so against him.
12.5 odd% is needed in Edinburgh East, which looks a very tough ask to stop given the 49% Yes vote there. If she can keep the margin of victory to less than 10 pts she'll have done very well.0 -
But it was much closer than the polls a year earlier suggested it should have been, and very much a pyrrhic victory.Sean_F said:
Fearmongering won it (just about) in Scotland. Alex Salmond was never credible on the currency issue.Casino_Royale said:
The interesting thing is will the lessons of the Scottish Indy ref by learnt by both sides in the EU referendum?Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
OUT need to learn to put the sunny optimistic case
IN need to stop fearmongering and come up with a positive case that it represents our long term future
To be honest, so far, I haven't been impressed by either, although I am a BOO'er. OUT needs to start putting in the groundwork now in order to win in 2017.
But, it won't be enough in the longer term to keep Scotland in the Union.
NO could have put it to bed for 20 years had they fought a much better campaign.0 -
What voting indication have you given to Labour canvassers?Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.0 -
Mr. Urquhart, not seen Gotham since the mid-season break (I think it's back on Channel 5 next week, the different airing times makes things irritating) but I rather like it. The Penguin's creepy as hell.
I suspect they're just mixing monster-of-the-week approach with longer arcs.0 -
Jo Coburn might as well be talking to empty seats because she's barely allowing people to speak on the DP.
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Once you heard teh bollox she had to offer you would be increasing your stake pdqAlistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.0 -
The Benefit pledge such as it was is dead, it requires a treaty change that the Polish President has said is out of the question and that Poland will veto.Casino_Royale said:
So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?Richard_Nabavi said:
I agree.Casino_Royale said:I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
As a Conservative I feel my party is completely incoherent on this issue. The public are not going to stand for 1m immigrants every 3-4 years. We cant change that significantly while we are in the EU, and yet we don't want to leave the EU. If we sit there with our fingers in our ears for another 5-10 years the public is going to be so pissed off it will elect the kippers or their successors and it will be done in a far less business friendly way that we would like, and it will be our own fault for fiddling while Rome burns. There are no good solutions, but sitting there hoping the problem goes away is just being part of the problem0 -
This seems as good a point as any to draw attention for the benefit of the daytime crowd to a post I put up last night on the Scottish constituencies:malcolmg said:
Once you heard teh bollox she had to offer you would be increasing your stake pdqAlistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/mapping-snp-surge-return-to-scottish.html
The point that I regard as central is as follows:
"Of those 41 seats where the SNP are odds-on favourites, the price is longer than 1/2 in 19 of those seats. On present polling it is my firm belief that there is a better than two in three chance that we will see more than 22 SNP MPs elected in May. I make it at least an 80% chance from this point that the SNP will exceed 22 seats in May and possibly higher. So there must be some value in those relatively longer priced seats where the SNP are favourites as well if I am correct."
So I have been increasing my stake on the SNP, just as you suggest.0 -
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.0 -
I was in middle of feeding my baby so was unable to give her any time. If she hadn't been crying (my baby - not Gilmore) I'd have totally invited her in for a cup of tea and told her where it was going wrong for SLab.Dair said:
What voting indication have you given to Labour canvassers?Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.0 -
The 1-3 on the SNP in Inverness was very tasty yesterday.antifrank said:
This seems as good a point as any to draw attention for the benefit of the daytime crowd to a post I put up last night on the Scottish constituencies:malcolmg said:
Once you heard teh bollox she had to offer you would be increasing your stake pdqAlistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/mapping-snp-surge-return-to-scottish.html
The point that I regard as central is as follows:
"Of those 41 seats where the SNP are odds-on favourites, the price is longer than 1/2 in 19 of those seats. On present polling it is my firm belief that there is a better than two in three chance that we will see more than 22 SNP MPs elected in May. I make it at least an 80% chance from this point that the SNP will exceed 22 seats in May and possibly higher. So there must be some value in those relatively longer priced seats where the SNP are favourites as well if I am correct."
So I have been increasing my stake on the SNP, just as you suggest.0 -
The 76% of the population that want immigration cut disagree with you, and if we ignore them are going to vote kipper next time...edmundintokyo said:
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.0 -
Are the Tories shedding their nasty image, no quartering and disembowelling. I cannot believe they would be as nice as you predict.Casino_Royale said:
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
So no change to Tory policy on Scotland then.Casino_Royale said:
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
What's brought that post on :O ?Casino_Royale said:
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
Fundamentally disagree. Scotland's heart says YES. Scotland's head said NO. Which means the union is gone already in a certain sense. Scotland already feels and regards itself as 'other' to the rest of the UK. You can't row back from that. And the head will gradually start to justify what the heart wants and then accept it.Casino_Royale said:
But it was much closer than the polls a year earlier suggested it should have been, and very much a pyrrhic victory.Sean_F said:
Fearmongering won it (just about) in Scotland. Alex Salmond was never credible on the currency issue.Casino_Royale said:
The interesting thing is will the lessons of the Scottish Indy ref by learnt by both sides in the EU referendum?Sean_F said:
In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, that is fair enough. I have no problem with an honest debate (although I think the result would be a strong majority in favour of staying in). What I object to is the simplistic idea that we can retain all of the advantages of the single market without having to concede anything.Sean_F said:Independence is bound to be a bumpy ride. The Irish discovered that in 1922. I think that Alex Salmond should have made that clear during the Scottish referendum campaign. You have to decide if the pros outweigh the cons.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
OUT need to learn to put the sunny optimistic case
IN need to stop fearmongering and come up with a positive case that it represents our long term future
To be honest, so far, I haven't been impressed by either, although I am a BOO'er. OUT needs to start putting in the groundwork now in order to win in 2017.
But, it won't be enough in the longer term to keep Scotland in the Union.
NO could have put it to bed for 20 years had they fought a much better campaign.0 -
OT
Denmark spent 9% of it's GDP in February defending it's Euro peg.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-bond-purchase-program-forces-danes-to-intervene-in-currency-markets-14254049660 -
Worse A&E figures.....the facts are that the English, coalition run, NHS had the best Winter - followed not far behind by the Scottish NHS, with Labour run Wales a distant third - but I see you are innured to SNP hypocrisy over NHS shroud waving......malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
Scotland-based PBers, I'd be interested to know how the death of Dave McKay has been covered. He may well have been the greatest player Spurs ever had. Hopefully, the tributes in the papers up there have been long and fulsome.0
-
I'll give you an honest answer: I don't know.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
On EU migration, the government can't do much except at the margins - tightening up benefits rules is a good idea, and will help a little bit, but no-one thinks it will make much impact on the overall numbers. One would hope that the current massive disparity between job creation in the UK and in the rest of Europe will fade and that this will ameliorate the problem in time, but it's hard to see anything more that can be done within the EU. Those who think that leaving the EU will solve the problem will have the opportunity to vote to leave, if we have a Conservative government.
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.0 -
I'm trying to work out if SLab have you as a potential voter in which case the work you see from them will be very different to what others in your constituency will be. Have you been canvassed before she doorstepped you?Alistair said:
I was in middle of feeding my baby so was unable to give her any time. If she hadn't been crying (my baby - not Gilmore) I'd have totally invited her in for a cup of tea and told her where it was going wrong for SLab.Dair said:
What voting indication have you given to Labour canvassers?Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
In Glasgow I've never been canvassed by Labour (and the SNP have me as a hard SNP so I get one call per election a couple days before and left alone otherwise). It's why Murphy's talking shit about the 200k "target" voters in Glasgow - SLab have no idea who they are - no database of supporter, swing, opposition voters at all.0 -
In the words of Nicomo Cosca "Heads, spikes, walls. They never go out of fashion."Casino_Royale said:
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
On topic - the best bet in this market is "No bet". Many possible winners and a 167% overround.0
-
Has anyone actually polled whether the voters think the sun will grow to engulf the earth? In any case wanting something doesn't mean it's the only thing that drives your vote, and no, 76% are not going to vote kipper.Indigo said:
The 76% of the population that want immigration cut disagree with you, and if we ignore them are going to vote kipper next time...edmundintokyo said:
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.0 -
The father of Mohammed Emwazi has been reported as saying there was no proof his son was the Islamic State (Isis) executioner and claiming that a number of “false rumours” were circulating.
Jassem Emwazi told the Kuwaiti newspaper Al-Qabas: “There is nothing that proves what is being circulated in the media, especially through video clips and footage, that the accused is my son Mohammed, who is being referred to as the alleged executioner of Daesh (Isis).”
The paper said it spoke to the father of Kuwait-born Emwazi at a secret location. It was his fullest media interview since it emerged that his son was the jihadi who appeared in the videos depicting the killings of several western hostages.
“I have a message to the Kuwaiti people that many of the rumours are false,” he said. “Because I felt that some people have believed it, I have assigned a lawyer to defend me and to prove … that what is being said is untrue.”
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/04/mohammed-emwazi-father-proof-son-isis-executioner0 -
I am struggling to understand the SNP odds against price in Edinburgh North & Leith. There's a massive LD vote to cannibalise for the SNP and the Stockbridge stockbrokers seem to perfectly fit the SNP Tartan Tory model who would have solidly voted No at the referendum but want the best possible deal for Scotland at Westminster and will now vote SNP for the first time ever.Pulpstar said:
The 1-3 on the SNP in Inverness was very tasty yesterday.antifrank said:
This seems as good a point as any to draw attention for the benefit of the daytime crowd to a post I put up last night on the Scottish constituencies:malcolmg said:
Once you heard teh bollox she had to offer you would be increasing your stake pdqAlistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/mapping-snp-surge-return-to-scottish.html
The point that I regard as central is as follows:
"Of those 41 seats where the SNP are odds-on favourites, the price is longer than 1/2 in 19 of those seats. On present polling it is my firm belief that there is a better than two in three chance that we will see more than 22 SNP MPs elected in May. I make it at least an 80% chance from this point that the SNP will exceed 22 seats in May and possibly higher. So there must be some value in those relatively longer priced seats where the SNP are favourites as well if I am correct."
So I have been increasing my stake on the SNP, just as you suggest.0 -
Thanks Richard, appreciate your honesty. That makes two of us. I'm not sure I know either. I would be interested in exploring further non-EU control measures though. Although I'm not sure what they'd be.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll give you an honest answer: I don't know.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
On EU migration, the government can't do much except at the margins - tightening up benefits rules is a good idea, and will help a little bit, but no-one thinks it will make much impact on the overall numbers. One would hope that the current massive disparity between job creation in the UK and in the rest of Europe will fade and that this will ameliorate the problem in time, but it's hard to see anything more that can be done within the EU. Those who think that leaving the EU will solve the problem will have the opportunity to vote to leave, if we have a Conservative government.
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.0 -
For you, I'm sure we could make an exception.malcolmg said:
Are the Tories shedding their nasty image, no quartering and disembowelling. I cannot believe they would be as nice as you predict.Casino_Royale said:
We'd put you up against a wall for a start. Then put your head on a spike at the head of the Royal Mile so that the crows could peck at you.malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
It turns out if you stop students entering the country to take low-end courses, you also stop them from subsequently leaving.Richard_Nabavi said:The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.
0 -
Even if there is no difference in job prospects compared to our EU partners, the access we provide to free healthcare and free education is going to look attractive to those in countries that charge for it. I don't think accession countries are going to let us do anything meaningful about benefits because they see people coming to the UK and sending benefit money back to their families as a way to boost their economy. I think we need to tie more things to a period of residency.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks Richard, appreciate your honesty. That makes two of us. I'm not sure I know either. I would be interested in exploring further non-EU control measures though. Although I'm not sure what they'd be.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll give you an honest answer: I don't know.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
On EU migration, the government can't do much except at the margins - tightening up benefits rules is a good idea, and will help a little bit, but no-one thinks it will make much impact on the overall numbers. One would hope that the current massive disparity between job creation in the UK and in the rest of Europe will fade and that this will ameliorate the problem in time, but it's hard to see anything more that can be done within the EU. Those who think that leaving the EU will solve the problem will have the opportunity to vote to leave, if we have a Conservative government.
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.0 -
Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?
Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.
So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......0 -
Probably, as Fox says, the failure lies with administration, rather than policy.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks Richard, appreciate your honesty. That makes two of us. I'm not sure I know either. I would be interested in exploring further non-EU control measures though. Although I'm not sure what they'd be.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll give you an honest answer: I don't know.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
On EU migration, the government can't do much except at the margins - tightening up benefits rules is a good idea, and will help a little bit, but no-one thinks it will make much impact on the overall numbers. One would hope that the current massive disparity between job creation in the UK and in the rest of Europe will fade and that this will ameliorate the problem in time, but it's hard to see anything more that can be done within the EU. Those who think that leaving the EU will solve the problem will have the opportunity to vote to leave, if we have a Conservative government.
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.
0 -
Only canvassed by the Greens at the Euros previously. From what I gather from other people who live in Edinburgh East Gilmore is personally covering as many houses as she can.Dair said:
I'm trying to work out if SLab have you as a potential voter in which case the work you see from them will be very different to what others in your constituency will be. Have you been canvassed before she doorstepped you?Alistair said:
I was in middle of feeding my baby so was unable to give her any time. If she hadn't been crying (my baby - not Gilmore) I'd have totally invited her in for a cup of tea and told her where it was going wrong for SLab.Dair said:
What voting indication have you given to Labour canvassers?Alistair said:@Pulpstar @antifrank
*** Scottish Betting Anecdote alert ***
Sheila Gilmore - Lab - Edinburgh East is cranking up the contact rate. She has already personally canvased me (along with the rest of Edinburgh East from what I can gather) and I have just got a letter from her saying that if I want a personal home visit on Saturday I just need to give her a call.
She's willing to talk anything Westminster, Scottish Parliament Local council issues.
I know Edinburgh East was a high Yes vote but I'm thinking of laying off my bet here.
In Glasgow I've never been canvassed by Labour (and the SNP have me as a hard SNP so I get one call per election a couple days before and left alone otherwise). It's why Murphy's talking shit about the 200k "target" voters in Glasgow - SLab have no idea who they are - no database of supporter, swing, opposition voters at all.0 -
That's a one way bet over some timescale. Don't need a brain the size of a planet to spot a George Soros type opportunity there.Richard_Tyndall said:OT
Denmark spent 9% of it's GDP in February defending it's Euro peg.
http://www.wsj.com/articles/ecb-bond-purchase-program-forces-danes-to-intervene-in-currency-markets-14254049660 -
It's post like that that deny a problem exists that infuriate the public so much. It is 4-5 times higher than in the 1990s and housing and infrastructure pressures in London and the South-East are acute. Neither do they like the rapid social change that has been concentrated in certain areas.edmundintokyo said:
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.
We have around 400 million years actually, since you ask. The sun is constantly getting hotter and hotter and at that point life on Earth becomes unviable. Unless we all get wiped out by a giant asteroid impact before then (such a strike is rather likely)0 -
Then the government's competence is fully at fault and should be heavily criticised.Sean_F said:
Probably, as Fox says, the failure lies with administration, rather than policy.Casino_Royale said:
Thanks Richard, appreciate your honesty. That makes two of us. I'm not sure I know either. I would be interested in exploring further non-EU control measures though. Although I'm not sure what they'd be.Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll give you an honest answer: I don't know.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
On EU migration, the government can't do much except at the margins - tightening up benefits rules is a good idea, and will help a little bit, but no-one thinks it will make much impact on the overall numbers. One would hope that the current massive disparity between job creation in the UK and in the rest of Europe will fade and that this will ameliorate the problem in time, but it's hard to see anything more that can be done within the EU. Those who think that leaving the EU will solve the problem will have the opportunity to vote to leave, if we have a Conservative government.
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.0 -
I find MOTW timing really irritating at times. X-Files did it a lot and I found it annoying. Supernatural does it too often and has lost it's way IMHO. It's renewed for S11 and I'm barely watching it now after being a huge fan for almost a decade.
I'm trying out American Horror Story this week.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Urquhart, not seen Gotham since the mid-season break (I think it's back on Channel 5 next week, the different airing times makes things irritating) but I rather like it. The Penguin's creepy as hell.
I suspect they're just mixing monster-of-the-week approach with longer arcs.0 -
Immigration. He'll waste all 6.0
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Miliband going on immigration...wonder why not going on Mirror hacking?
Not sure what Ed gets out of this? Trying to get the UKIP voters dander up?0 -
Looks like a Labour MP has pipped Miliband to the 'Osborne refused to answer 6 times question....'0
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PB Tories always right.
You should learn from me.0 -
TSE you are a star!0
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Quite surprised Labour don't canvass in Edinburgh, the history of Glasgow explains why my experience is what it is. But with the tighter nature of the Edinburgh battlegrounds I expected Labour would have some sort of doorstep infrastructure in place to manage to hit people at most elections.Alistair said:
Only canvassed by the Greens at the Euros previously. From what I gather from other people who live in Edinburgh East Gilmore is personally covering as many houses as she can.
They really are fucked if they are reliant on candidates and have no infrastructure even in places like Edinburgh. The SNP (allegedly) have the best voter database in the UK and obviously the largest ground game.0 -
Spreadex's mid-spread price for Tory sears has edged up this morning to 284, just ahead of Sporting's spread.0
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It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.0
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I think that's pretty sensible don't you?CarlottaVance said:Q: You say there won’t be a cap. But you also expect net migration to be below 50,000. Aren’t you trying to have it both ways?
Farage says there is an obsession with floors, ceilings etc. He thinks, if you talk about caps, the public will not believe you. Ukip has not abolished the cap. But it has a plan to deal with immigration. It wants to turn an issue that is divisive and make it positive.
So that's clear then - the cap's still there, just don't talk about it because you won't be believed......0 -
Opportunism innit.antifrank said:It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.
0 -
All the Tory hands going up when Cameron asked who was putting Miliband on their leaflets was quite classic.0
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Someone suggested that the latest EdM strategy might be trying to minimize the number of kippers going home to the Tories, presumably by banging on about the Conservative failures in areas that kippers care about, ie. immigration.antifrank said:It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.
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Immigration??
The man is mad.0 -
I've been trying to work out what makes EdM sound so juvenile - literally. It's the register of his voice. It's all at the top of his chest and makes him sound like a shouty teenager and not a statesman. Why hasn't he had a voice coach to fix this - it'd really help with his public speaking.0
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Yes we saw all those emergency closures , panics, etc. Keep on kidding yourself.CarlottaVance said:
Worse A&E figures.....the facts are that the English, coalition run, NHS had the best Winter - followed not far behind by the Scottish NHS, with Labour run Wales a distant third - but I see you are innured to SNP hypocrisy over NHS shroud waving......malcolmg said:
Tory gnashing of teeth due to the good ratings in Scotland for NHS, what would it be like if the Tories were running Scotland ( hard to even imagine mind you) , not pretty for sure.CarlottaVance said:
Bit rich of a Nat to complain of others' shroud waving over the NHS considering exactly that dominated the final weeks of the SNP's independence campaign.....malcolmg said:
Jenny Marra's girning face on the news every night whinging about a non crisis is enough to finish them off. Last night it was about a handful of people having to wait 12 hours in A&E.Dair said:
Health is a dead issue for Labour in Scotland but they don't seem to understand it.anotherDave said:
ScotlandanotherDave said:Yesterday's YouGov tables are out. They asked a 'most important issues' question too.
1. Most important issues facing the country: immigration (50%), economy (46%), health (42%)
2. Most important issues facing my family: economy (43%), health (38%), pensions (29%)
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/ss0m2jmr6y/YG-Archive-Pol-Sun-results-030315.pdf
As with yesterday's Mori (first question), when compared to other UK regions Scotland has the highest numbers citing the economy, and the lowest numbers citing health/nhs.
Perhaps Labour need to be talking more about the economy?
NHS contact is rated 96% good or excellent.
Scotland is covered in shiny new hospitals and clinics.
Labour spent the referendum claiming the NHS was safe with a No vote.
NHS Wales is such an easy target for the massive SNP ground game.
But they keep going, trying to manufacture a "crisis" no-one believes, insulting to the intelligence of Scots and the achievements of staff.0 -
Labour need to just focus relentlessly on a few issues - the NHS being the most obvious. It's their issue, and it matters hugely with the public. Instead, they hop from issue to issue.antifrank said:It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.
0 -
British infrastructure is fine - and more people make it better, because you can spend more money on it. Areas people want to live in are seeing pressure on housing from both domestic and international migration, but they'd be able to cope fine if it weren't for Britain's Stalin-Meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning policies. They could be fixed given the political will, but ultimately the kind of voters who actually vote generally quite like gradually increasing house prices.Casino_Royale said:
It's post like that that deny a problem exists that infuriate the public so much. It is 4-5 times higher than in the 1990s and housing and infrastructure pressures in London and the South-East are acute. Neither do they like the rapid social change that has been concentrated in certain areas.edmundintokyo said:
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.
We have around 400 million years actually, since you ask. The sun is constantly getting hotter and hotter and at that point life on Earth becomes unviable. Unless we all get wiped out by a giant asteroid impact before then (such a strike is rather likely)0 -
6 is ridiculous, the LOTO should get no more than 3TheWatcher said:Immigration. He'll waste all 6.
0 -
Miliband sounds like he's totally lost his self-control.0
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James Chapman tweets: Cameron asks how many MPs are going to put Ed M on their leaflets. Scot Nats all put their hands up0
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No, I didn't bet on this. I try not to bet where other people are privy to better information than I am.DavidL said:
Sour grapes?antifrank said:It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.
0 -
They spend all their time in London getting the expenses claims up , no chance they could build an infrastructure at home and fill their boots. Their only goal is to milk it for as long as possible. They still think they can fly up a few weeks before the election and weigh the votes.Dair said:
Quite surprised Labour don't canvass in Edinburgh, the history of Glasgow explains why my experience is what it is. But with the tighter nature of the Edinburgh battlegrounds I expected Labour would have some sort of doorstep infrastructure in place to manage to hit people at most elections.Alistair said:
Only canvassed by the Greens at the Euros previously. From what I gather from other people who live in Edinburgh East Gilmore is personally covering as many houses as she can.
They really are fucked if they are reliant on candidates and have no infrastructure even in places like Edinburgh. The SNP (allegedly) have the best voter database in the UK and obviously the largest ground game.0 -
Danny Fink did a great analysis of this behaviour a few days ago - he's baffled.Sean_F said:
Labour need to just focus relentlessly on a few issues - the NHS being the most obvious. It's their issue, and it matters hugely with the public. Instead, they hop from issue to issue.antifrank said:It doesn't speak well of Labour's organisation that Ed Miliband is not leading on tuition fees, given that this was this week's chosen topic for Labour.
0 -
Missed the cricket this morning, thank god for the itv highlights later
Aussies becoming the first side to make 500 in an ODI will be worth watching0 -
This PMQs is a riot!0
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So complacency, Kippers win in 2025, messy EU exit....edmundintokyo said:
British infrastructure is fine - and more people make it better, because you can spend more money on it. Areas people want to live in are seeing pressure on housing from both domestic and international migration, but they'd be able to cope fine if it weren't for Britain's Stalin-Meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning policies. They could be fixed given the political will, but ultimately the kind of voters who actually vote generally quite like gradually increasing house prices.Casino_Royale said:
It's post like that that deny a problem exists that infuriate the public so much. It is 4-5 times higher than in the 1990s and housing and infrastructure pressures in London and the South-East are acute. Neither do they like the rapid social change that has been concentrated in certain areas.edmundintokyo said:
Demographic trends come and go, but even if they didn't that's not a particularly fast rate of increase.Casino_Royale said:
I don't think the British public are simply going to shrug and accept a million extra people every 4 years ad infinitum.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, a few % of GDP is a lot, but I accept your point. I've never argued that we can't prosper outside the EU - in fact, ironically it's partly because of the EU (and Peter Mandelson in particular) that we now have world trade agreements which to an extent have made the single market less significant because trade is now easier globally.Sean_F said:In the same way, I object to arguments that leaving the EU would be like unleashing the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse.
In reality, we're talking about a few per cent of GDP in either direction.
However, we would still enter a trade treaty with out EU friends, which brngs me back to my original point: yes, leaving the EU would not unleash the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse, but equally it wouldn't usher in a new era of being free of treaty-based restrictions on what we can do, and wouldn't make much difference to immigration. Basically not much would change. And, to the extent that things which Kippers get excited about would change, the bigger the economic damage. In practice we'd sign straight back in to much of what we'd just left.
Obviously it won't happen ad infinitum, not least because the sun will grow to engulf the earth, before collapsing into a white dwarf.
We have around 400 million years actually, since you ask. The sun is constantly getting hotter and hotter and at that point life on Earth becomes unviable. Unless we all get wiped out by a giant asteroid impact before then (such a strike is rather likely)0 -
Dave evasive on immigration and bottling debates... Not a good look0
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I think you may be over-estimating my influence on British politics.Indigo said:
So complacency, Kippers win in 2025, messy EU exit....edmundintokyo said:
British infrastructure is fine - and more people make it better, because you can spend more money on it. Areas people want to live in are seeing pressure on housing from both domestic and international migration, but they'd be able to cope fine if it weren't for Britain's Stalin-Meets-Mary-Whitehouse planning policies. They could be fixed given the political will, but ultimately the kind of voters who actually vote generally quite like gradually increasing house prices.0 -
Miss Plato, over-used, it can be deeply irritating.
I thought Farscape was good at blending (after the initial few episodes) the two. There was a three parter about the political situation of a neutral power between the Peacekeepers and Scarrans, which nicely developed the cold war between the latter two whilst focusing primarily on the third party.0 -
I believe when HMG chose to pass control over Justice and Home Affairs to the EU last year, they passed over non-EU immigration too. So the EU is relevant here.Richard_Nabavi said:
The bigger puzzle to me is non-EU immigration, where the rules have been tightened up hugely (initially by Labour, and further tightened by this government). Obviously leaving the EU is irrelevant to this part of the argument, and to be honest I don't understand why the numbers haven't dropped.Casino_Royale said:So, what do you suggest we do about it? Or do you think all measures that can be taken have been taken?
I'm hoping for a Nabavi perspective, so please don't just quote Cameron's manifesto pledges on benefit access back at me!
0 -
Barry Gardiner 'my father died of cancer...'
Accidental, but unfortunate...0 -
Could be a while; they’ve played England in this round and quite possibly this World Cup!isam said:Missed the cricket this morning, thank god for the itv highlights later
Aussies becoming the first side to make 500 in an ODI will be worth watching0
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