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I would urge major caution re Con moving into the lead.

Last night's YouGov was actually a Con lead of 2 but lead was reported as 3 because Con rounded up and Lab down.

Last Tuesday YouGov had a Con lead of 2. Then Wed was a tie and Thur a Lab lead of 1.

OK, we had Ashcroft yesterday with a Con lead of 3. But we know Ashcroft is volatile and in any case Populus had a Lab lead of 2.

It MIGHT be that the Con position (vs Lab) is MARGINALLY improving - we saw that with the full ELBOW for last week and Con is off to a good start this week.

But forget any idea that Con is anything remotely like 3 ahead - if anything we are talking about a very MARGINAL improvement.

Plato said:

IIRC you mentioned in the past being on a Grand Jury - I''m only familiar with them as TV show scenarios - do they tend to indite or not? The Good Wife series claims that for example Chicago ones would indite a ham sandwich.

MTimT said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

F##k me...

Former CIA director General David Petraeus pleads guilty to mishandling classified materials, US government says

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-31716031

That's to do with him banging his biographer.

Nothing more.

I wonder if Hillary will be charged with mishandling classified materials for having exclusively used her personal email for all her State Department work? Not! Double standards.

I have not actually been on one, but if memory serves correctly, Grand Juries do indict most of the time as they are not called unless the DA is almost certain there is a case to answer. Recently, in cases of cops killing members of the public, this has turned around a bit as DA's have developed sloping shoulders, seeking to place the 'blame' for not bringing cops to trial on the Grand Jury.

Just saying

@MSmithsonPB: @LKnavesmire I trade and moved out of my LAB most seats position over the weekend. I'll go back to either CON or LAB when price is right

MikeL said:

I would urge major caution re Con moving into the lead.

Last night's YouGov was actually a Con lead of 2 but lead was reported as 3 because Con rounded up and Lab down.

Last Tuesday YouGov had a Con lead of 2. Then Wed was a tie and Thur a Lab lead of 1.

OK, we had Ashcroft yesterday with a Con lead of 3. But we know Ashcroft is volatile and in any case Populus had a Lab lead of 2.

It MIGHT be that the Con position (vs Lab) is MARGINALLY improving - we saw that with the full ELBOW for last week and Con is off to a good start this week.

But forget any idea that Con is anything remotely like 3 ahead - if anything we are talking about a very MARGINAL improvement.

There's been definite crossover with the phone pollsters.

Note this graph doesn't include yesterday's Ashcroft

@TSEofPB: The Tories have achieved an average lead with the phone pollsters http://t.co/lVNuhfNC47

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Giant story coming up.

Hope it's not about giants.

Mike's on holiday.

So it will be giant.

Cabinet level resignation at least.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just saying

@MSmithsonPB: @LKnavesmire I trade and moved out of my LAB most seats position over the weekend. I'll go back to either CON or LAB when price is right

At a loss, one assumes.

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Giant story coming up.

Hope it's not about giants.

Wonder what that's about.

Back to high profile tax dodgers maybe?

GIN1138 said:

Tissue_Price said:

Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes

Giant story coming up.

Hope it's not about giants.

Wonder what that's about.

Back to high profile tax dodgers maybe?

Fingers at the ready on betfair's PMQs market...

MikeL said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

MikeL said:

I would urge major caution re Con moving into the lead.

Last night's YouGov was actually a Con lead of 2 but lead was reported as 3 because Con rounded up and Lab down.

Last Tuesday YouGov had a Con lead of 2. Then Wed was a tie and Thur a Lab lead of 1.

OK, we had Ashcroft yesterday with a Con lead of 3. But we know Ashcroft is volatile and in any case Populus had a Lab lead of 2.

It MIGHT be that the Con position (vs Lab) is MARGINALLY improving - we saw that with the full ELBOW for last week and Con is off to a good start this week.

But forget any idea that Con is anything remotely like 3 ahead - if anything we are talking about a very MARGINAL improvement.

There's been definite crossover with the phone pollsters.

Note this graph doesn't include yesterday's Ashcroft

@TSEofPB: The Tories have achieved an average lead with the phone pollsters http://t.co/lVNuhfNC47

OK, thanks. But we can't ignore the online pollsters.

Anthony did an analysis of house effects a while back and from memory YouGov and Populus are pretty near the centre.

I'm a Con supporter but I'm just bored with people on here cheerleading for their own party / cherry picking data.

You have to look at all the data and in my view the Con position is at best only improving marginally.

I'm hanging fire until the next ICM and Ipsos Mori polls.

@ anorak

On the same scale as Midwest, those states belong to the West, but that also includes California, Oregon and Washington, plus the Mountain West. Most people would probably term those states as the Southwest, although that is not an official USG term. When we talk of southwestern cuisine, it would be those states, i.e. not including California which has its own weird and wonderful cuisine.

The USG cuts up the country up in many different ways for many different purposes. FYI you might find this site interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States

Eagle

"Never misunderestimate the stupidity of a man when sex is involved."

Not a nice story

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/magazine-31698154

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Just saying

@MSmithsonPB: @LKnavesmire I trade and moved out of my LAB most seats position over the weekend. I'll go back to either CON or LAB when price is right

I'm being greedy when others are fearful on this topic.

I should have a short post up this evening about the Scottish seats in advance of relevant constituency polling from Lord Ashcroft tomorrow.

Look forward to it.

GIN1138 said:

Hengists_Gift said:

Any news of the Ashcroft marginals yet?

Tomorrow.

I think we're due a TNS as well, which might burst the Tory bubble given their recent results.

Looks like it's just some nonsense;

http://order-order.com/2015/03/03/milimetres-mystery-of-miraculously-massive-miliband/

Perhaps Guido's 'Giant story' is related to story on the photo of suddenly very tall EdM and Toby Perkins? Got to be the funniest I've read on there for months, worthy of Thick of It....

MTimT said:

@ anorak

On the same scale as Midwest, those states belong to the West, but that also includes California, Oregon and Washington, plus the Mountain West. Most people would probably term those states as the Southwest, although that is not an official USG term. When we talk of southwestern cuisine, it would be those states, i.e. not including California which has its own weird and wonderful cuisine.

The USG cuts up the country up in many different ways for many different purposes. FYI you might find this site interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States

Lots of confusion over "southwest":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States
I'm going with this (especially I was introduced to it by Breaking Bad):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Corners

JohnLilburne said:

GIN1138 said:

Hengists_Gift said:

Any news of the Ashcroft marginals yet?

Tomorrow.

I think we're due a TNS as well, which might burst the Tory bubble given their recent results.

I find TNS, Survation and Opinium are largely ignored (unless they show Con leads of course)

GIN1138 said:

Looks like it's just some nonsense;

http://order-order.com/2015/03/03/milimetres-mystery-of-miraculously-massive-miliband/

From the build-up I thought it was something like Theresa May joining UKIP.

@tnewtondunn: The second interesting daily @YouGov poll in a row just in. Movement for two different parties. Result on http://t.co/U0QFiRQF8U at 10.30pm.

Plato said:

I've stood on Four Corners - it's hemmed in by Native American jewelry shacks staffed by most unfriendly victim-feeling owners. A most disappointing experience.

If you want to try it - Death Valley is marvellous.

Anorak said:

MTimT said:

@ anorak

On the same scale as Midwest, those states belong to the West, but that also includes California, Oregon and Washington, plus the Mountain West. Most people would probably term those states as the Southwest, although that is not an official USG term. When we talk of southwestern cuisine, it would be those states, i.e. not including California which has its own weird and wonderful cuisine.

The USG cuts up the country up in many different ways for many different purposes. FYI you might find this site interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States

Lots of confusion over "southwest":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States
I'm going with this (especially I was introduced to it by Breaking Bad):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Corners

I'm visiting SF and Yosemite in the summer, as it happens. Maybe a drive to Death Valley could be arranged...

TheScreamingEagles said:

@tnewtondunn: The second interesting daily @YouGov poll in a row just in. Movement for two different parties. Result on http://t.co/U0QFiRQF8U at 10.30pm.

Doesn't sound like a Tory lead to me.

UKIP down will be one of the movements.

If they get YouGov in this early, I wonder why they make us wait until half ten?

Wouldn't it have more impact on the "agenda" if they released it around 8pm?

Mind you, it wouldn't be the first time that a journalist had overhyped a poll.

antifrank said:

Casino_Royale said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@tnewtondunn: The second interesting daily @YouGov poll in a row just in. Movement for two different parties. Result on http://t.co/U0QFiRQF8U at 10.30pm.

Doesn't sound like a Tory lead to me.

I disagree. If it was "as you were", that wouldn't be interesting.

It sounds more likely to be a UKIP fall and Lib Dem rise, if I were being forced to guess right now.

Yep. A UKIP-LibDem crossover would be newsworthy....

Tissue_Price said:

Or, hedging my bets for a mega-move

C 37 (+2) L 32 (-) LD 7 (-) UKIP 12 (-3) GRN 6 (-)

#cookingwithgas

GIN1138 said:

If they get YouGov in this early, I wonder why they make us wait until half ten?

Wouldn't it have more impact on the "agenda" if they released it around 8pm?

Well they've got to write their copy. But I suspect their poll release time may creep earlier as we get nearer to the election.

richardDodd said:

Plato..I taught my first wife to drive an automatic car in Death Valley.. seemed quite apt.

Was it directly linked to the subsequent spousal vacancy?

@MSmithsonPB: @SunPolitics @tnewtondunn @YouGov Why not Tweet it now? The S Times give us their YouGov data at about 9pm

@tnewtondunn: @MSmithsonPB @SunPolitics @YouGov we hold back to keep the results exclusive for the paper's 1st edition.

I was planning to publish my AV thread this evening, but I'm going to hold it back until tomorrow, as Tom Newton Dunn's tweet means we've got too much excitement on our hands.

Plato said:

I liked SF - if you're driving check out the rules, IIRC you can't turn right so go round in a big square to get to your destination.

I had three days in Yosemite and was bored stiff - 24hrs was enough for me. I wish I'd given more to Los Angeles and SF. Don't miss LA out if you haven't been or Sea World in San Diego - it's superb fun.

I highly recommend Hearst Castle [as in Citizen Kane] it's mind blowing.

Anorak said:

Plato said:

I've stood on Four Corners - it's hemmed in by Native American jewelry shacks staffed by most unfriendly victim-feeling owners. A most disappointing experience.

If you want to try it - Death Valley is marvellous.

Anorak said:

MTimT said:

@ anorak

On the same scale as Midwest, those states belong to the West, but that also includes California, Oregon and Washington, plus the Mountain West. Most people would probably term those states as the Southwest, although that is not an official USG term. When we talk of southwestern cuisine, it would be those states, i.e. not including California which has its own weird and wonderful cuisine.

The USG cuts up the country up in many different ways for many different purposes. FYI you might find this site interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States

Lots of confusion over "southwest":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States
I'm going with this (especially I was introduced to it by Breaking Bad):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Corners

I'm visiting SF and Yosemite in the summer, as it happens. Maybe a drive to Death Valley could be arranged...

The Pacific Coast Highway run down from SF is superb. Big Sur is worth dawdling through. Spend a bit of time (and a lot of cash!) at Ventana Lodge.

Also, the aquarium at Cannery Row in Monterey is superb.

Europhile watch. All MPs ranked by euroscepticism based upon how they've voted. Brooks Newmark worse than Ken Clarke:

http://www.brugesgroup.com/mpwatch/index.live

JonnyJimmy said:

Anorak said:

MarqueeMark said:

Flightpath said:

MarkHopkins said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Six spaceport locations remain in play for the UK:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31711083

We should have it in England. Scotland could well go its own way in the next decade or two.

Most are in Scotland, who (as you say) could go their own way and take the spaceport with them.

Perhaps we should choose the Welsh one. Hmmm. What if they decide to go independent?

Perhaps its safest to pick the English one. Cornwall. Is Cornwall safe?

'Spaceport'? Is this serious?
'low cost rocket planes' ?? Yes we have heard all that before. Tell that to Richard Branson.
Low cost, with all the options in the far extremes of the country?

Since the 'spaceport' will be no more than a glorified converted RAF runway I do not think there is much for Scotland to take away should it choose.
I've been to Stornaway, the Outer Hebrides have some lovely windswept beaches. Is anyone at all seriously suggesting we launch rockets or 'rocket planes' from there?

You will be telling me next there is an election looming.

If it is Campbeltown, it will be RAF Macrihanish.

An interesting place. The runway is absolutely vast. Was rumoured to be a stop-off point for the top-secret Aurora spy plane. Also B-2 stealth bombers went through there after 9/11. And plenty of special forces training around and abouts.

The tin-foil hat brigade linked the Mull of Kintyre Chinook disaster to activities at Macrihanish. Who knows. If it is being put forward as a space port, that rather suggests its military status may have been downgraded.

Given there's an absolutely splendid and much-used links at the end of the runway, the tin-foil hat brigade are being whackier then usual. The UK is not like the Mid-West, where you can put a runway in the centre of a thousand square miles of desert.

Leuchars is right next to a not too shabby links course as well.. Did they just pick the airbase sites for the golf nearby?

It was strongly rumoured that GCHQ, moved to Cheltenham because the director at the time was a bit of a lover of the nags, and the Americans had coincidentally pulled out of the hospital there, leaving it vacant at just the right time.

Paul_Mid_Beds said:

Corking is a phrase used where, for example, a few cyclists in a road race block the side roads at traffic light junction, allowing the bulk of the riders to ride safely through it, red or green without slowing down or stopping.

Is TN-D a keen cyclist?

Is that even legal, surely the cyclists would be going through a red light?

Can anyone explain the complete silence from labour and hacked off over the revelation of the extent of Mirror Group papers phone hacking

TheScreamingEagles said:

I was planning to publish my AV thread this evening, but I'm going to hold it back until tomorrow, as Tom Newton Dunn's tweet means we've got too much excitement on our hands.

Well we have got five hours to kill...

Anorak said:

Plato said:

I've stood on Four Corners - it's hemmed in by Native American jewelry shacks staffed by most unfriendly victim-feeling owners. A most disappointing experience.

If you want to try it - Death Valley is marvellous.

Anorak said:

MTimT said:

@ anorak

On the same scale as Midwest, those states belong to the West, but that also includes California, Oregon and Washington, plus the Mountain West. Most people would probably term those states as the Southwest, although that is not an official USG term. When we talk of southwestern cuisine, it would be those states, i.e. not including California which has its own weird and wonderful cuisine.

The USG cuts up the country up in many different ways for many different purposes. FYI you might find this site interesting: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_regions_of_the_United_States

Lots of confusion over "southwest":
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Southwestern_United_States
I'm going with this (especially I was introduced to it by Breaking Bad):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four_Corners

I'm visiting SF and Yosemite in the summer, as it happens. Maybe a drive to Death Valley could be arranged...

If you make it down to Laguna, I'll invite you over for a drink

Andrew Neil ‏@afneil 8s8 seconds ago
High Court: between June 2002 and mid-2006, Mirror Group journalists made nearly 10,000 phone hacking calls to Orange’s voicemail platform.

@Big_G_NorthWales

Hacked Off, the campaign for a "free and accountable" press, said the Trinity Mirror apology confirmed what it had always believed - that phone hacking was "not confined to the News of the World".

It said the move was "four years late and fails to deal with the issue of corporate responsibility, cover-ups and a continuing rejection of effective regulation and fair remedy".

MTimT said:

@ Plato: The Empty Quarter does not get up to Death Valley temperatures (although Lac Abbe in Djibouti does), but it has incredible sand dunes, daily temperatures of 50+C, and so dry that you have no sensible sweating, just waking up to the fact that your arms have gone white with a crust of salt.

Back in the late 80s before the first gulf war I worked in the Empty Quarter looking at sand dune and sabkha deposits. The hottest air temperature we records was 59 deg C. But that was not in the shade.