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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » February 2015 Issues Index
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » February 2015 Issues Index
Those who are more likely to mention the NHS include those aged 55+ (51%), ABC1s (45%) and those in the South East outside of London (56%) compared with Londoners (34%), C2DEs (36%) and those aged 18-34 (24%).
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And a couple for the horsey followers on here.....
Newcastle
2.20 Seventeen Black ew 5/1
4.20 Snowed In ew 5/1
Would make a nice ew double.
Off to the London Racing Club's pre-Festival Review Nite tonite. Any glimpses of wisdom will be dutifully reported here tomorrow.
Now, back to the NHS folks. Sorry for the interruption.
With regards to the election, I like the consistency of this data set but you can't force it to answer questions that weren't asked.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-31699607
Are you sure?
“Disregarding certain convictions for buggery etc.
Effect of disregard
95 - Effect of disregard on police and other records
(1)The Secretary of State must by notice direct the relevant data controller to delete details, contained in relevant official records, of a disregarded conviction or caution.”
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/ukpga/2012/9/part/5/chapter/4/enacted
I thought of headlining it "Osborne's magnificent stewardship of the economy is responsible for the economy no longer being the major issue"
But I thought, that might give Alanbrooke a seizure.
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/03/exclusive-75-labour-ppcs-oppose-trident-renewal
You cannot have the NHS without a decent economy to pay for it.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11446252/Campaign-Calculus-Only-Ed-Miliband-can-stop-Labour-now.html
The only anomaly is that Callaghan was rated higher than Thatcher, although that was probably just straightforward 1970s working class sexism. I can remember a thoughtful voter in a TV vox observing that he "couldn't see how Mrs Fatcha could evah git in."
Miliband is going to lose the popular vote although he could still end up as PM off coming second.
#Taxi4Clegg
All I would point is that these are quite heavy bets for me and like many punters I go in heaviest when I think I've spotted an opposable favorite. That's what is behind these two bets, so naturally betting 'without' doesn't appeal to me on this occasion.
We'll soon know if I'm wrong!
http://www.electoralcommission.org.uk/__data/assets/pdf_file/0019/164017/20131017-Political-party-profiles-2012-PDF.pdf
6/5 Nigel Farage/UKIP
7/4 Nick Clegg/ Liberal Democrats
5/1 The Voters
10/1 The Media
20/1 David Cameron
100/1 "You're all Ungrateful B***ards"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/mar/03/tory-minister-inhuman-inflexibility-benefit-sanctions
What the feck was her party doing whilst it was going on?
Curse of the new thread ... FPT
According to the Casey Report, Rotherham authorities are still in denial. It never happened.
Listening to R5L recently, it appears that offences remain unreported because people still don't believe the people in charge will act.
Who is to blame? The perpetrators obviously, but also the authorities.
If the UK were to announce that burglary was no longer a crime if committed by men between say, thirty and fifty years of age, only a small proportion of that population would take advantage - most would not. But if a householder reported a crime, it would be ignored, it would never have taken place. And the numbers would increase despite the official count being nil.
That's what happened in Rotherham and Oxford and Rochdale etc. Because of PC considerations, a section of the population were allowed to commit a crime and have it ignored. Is it any wonder that it the numbers increased? Yes, only a small section of that group would take advantage, and other groups would carry on as before, but the authorities were guilty of encouraging the increase.
But I'm not sure how this jail term for people looking the other way can work. Wouldn't you have to prove they knew? Proving someone ignored something is bound to be difficult. First they have to acknowledge a crime took place, then they would have to admit they deliberately ignored it.
Documentary evidence can easily disappear from locked offices.
Evens Betfair Sportsbook
6-4 Corals
3-1 Skybet
10-1 Bar
My phone is available for hacking and I'll only charge £2 a day to read the full contents. How many detectives were occupied in the celebrity cases? How many were investigating the Rotherham scandal?
1. What would you say is the most important issue facing Britain today?
2. What do you see as the main/other important issues facing Britain today?
Just looking at their first response, the NHS doesn't seem like a vote swayer.
Immigration 18% (Con 21%, Lab 10%, LD 8%, UKIP 64%)
Economy 15% (Con 31%, Lab 16%, LD 27%, UKIP 3%)
NHS 12% (Con 8%, Lab 15%, LD 12%, UKIP 3%)
Unemployment 8% (Con 3%, Lab 13%, LD 13%, UKIP 2%)
p.10, table 3
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/issues-index-tables-feb-2015.pdf
LD voters top issue is the Economy, UKIP voters top issue is immigration.
(Green voters are not broken out in the tables.)
These are the voters Lab/Con need to attract.
Students who go on to earn only a low salary https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/gxsjii6bmt/TimesRedBoxResults_150302_tuition_fees_W.pdf
Never again. I'd rather eat Pritt than try to make them again!
No Difference
No Difference
To the "Average/low" salary question; and better off to the high salary option.
Overall, the Conservatives need to get the NHS down, and the economy up, in terms of salience.
The Welsh NHS may be dreadful, but the voters will never be persuaded that Labour are bad on the NHS, anymore than they'll be persuaded that the Conservatives are bad on Defence, despite tons of contrary evidence in both cases.
Let's hope your second pin was luckier.
Blowed if I can remember what else she's done.
She's a bit like Robert Palmer or Peter Gabriel. I'd never heard of either of them before, respectively, Johnny and Mary in 1980 and Sledgehammer in 1986, but everyone else seemed to be quite clear that they were already famous.
There's actually quite a few like that. Nigel Havers, for example. One day he just appeared and he'd been famous for ever. Or Alan Rickman before Die Hard.
Edit: it was Man at the Top (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0073342/?ref_=nm_flmg_act_16) but in the trivia it says that "Nanette Newman has indicated in interviews that her nude scenes were provided by a body double". Fooled me!
Q. "..would you say that immigration is good or bad, or does it have no impact on each of the following?"
Ecomomy +36% / -40%
NHS +26% / -55%
Ability to find a job +8% / -35%
p.48
http://comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/02/ITV-News-Index_23rd-February-2015.pdf
Economy 24% (higher than any other UK region)
NHS 6% (lower than any other UK region)
p.6
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/issues-index-tables-feb-2015.pdf
Am feeling bloody minded for some reason.
Let us know what reply you get.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-31711083
We should have it in England. Scotland could well go its own way in the next decade or two.
If employment wasn't down, growth not booming and finances not in better order then it would be top again like 2008.
I await Ed's outrage and call for a full investigation of all those in important positions at the paper during that time, including his own spin doctor.
And BBC special about this to come I'm sure?
"One journalist hacked phones of 100 celebrities every day for 18 months"
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/mar/03/phone-hacking-widespread-mirror-titles-court-told
No?
Do IM prompt on that question?
"Exact vote tie in any seat 33/1"
It doesn't specify that it means a dead heat for first place. Does that mean if any two parties tie for votes anywhere in the list for any seat, then the vote is a winner?
If so that sounds like value, though I haven't given it any statistical analysis..
People want to have all the kudos of being in charge - the title, the status, the big team, the money etc. Well, they have to learn that with that goes responsibility. So if something goes wrong, the buck stops with them.
says Martin Baxter in today's Daily Telegraph.
If your footie club is owned by a spiv only interested in the money not the sport then don't stand for it - you can make positive change.
A good day.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/teams/rangers/11447097/Derek-Llambias-to-quit-Rangers-as-Dave-King-declares-victory.html
Most are in Scotland, who (as you say) could go their own way and take the spaceport with them.
Perhaps we should choose the Welsh one. Hmmm. What if they decide to go independent?
Perhaps its safest to pick the English one. Cornwall. Is Cornwall safe?
Cornwall would be a little safer if the brainless clown Clegg hadn't thrown an unwanted minority status at them.
http://enormo-haddock.blogspot.co.uk/2015/03/testing-thoughts.html
Remember, Alonso won't be in Oz. Unfortunately, I couldn't see a classified market, so there was no way to take advantage.
And of course, any new ways to get rich are being ruthlessly shut down (such as a complete moratorium on fracking).
The last thing, the very last thing labour want is for Wales to become prosperous. Oh dear me no. Where would labour be without all that subsistence, poverty and poor health and educational outcomes?
Labour has nothing to say on either the Economy or Immigration. The Tories can at least talk about the Economy....it's not on the verboten list for them.
"Common sense suggests that the gap between Labour's support and their leader's ratings will shrink when voters are face to face with a ballot paper. But this could happen in two ways. Either support for Miliband goes up as Labour supporters swallow their doubts, or else Labour votes go down as Miliband-sceptics put their crosses elsewhere. No-one knows for sure, but the historical record suggests the latter possibility is more likely."
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/11446252/Campaign-Calculus-Only-Ed-Miliband-can-stop-Labour-now.html
Do we have this historical record anywhere?
I notice that the NHS has slipped this month. It might slip again in coming months as worries about a winter A&E crisis fade.
One other comment is that certain issues will have more resonance with certain segments of the population e.g. education will be a much higher priority of parents of school age children
If it is actually a tie, no matter how many recounts you have it will be a tie in the end.
The chance of it actually being a tie is approximately n/2001, where n is the number of constituencies with a projected majority <=1000 (i.e. close enough that random variance might land you on 0). You could use n/1001 with a <=500 threshold, or whatever you think best.
By my model n = 57 so the chance of it being a tie is about 1 in 35. So the 33/1 isn't too bad...
'low cost rocket planes' ?? Yes we have heard all that before. Tell that to Richard Branson.
Low cost, with all the options in the far extremes of the country?
Since the 'spaceport' will be no more than a glorified converted RAF runway I do not think there is much for Scotland to take away should it choose.
I've been to Stornaway, the Outer Hebrides have some lovely windswept beaches. Is anyone at all seriously suggesting we launch rockets or 'rocket planes' from there?
You will be telling me next there is an election looming.
03/03/2015 07:45
Thesaurus and chai latte at the ready. Time to put quill to parchment. I feel a column coming on.
But it doesn't make him wrong.
Anyway, I rather like chai latte
This leftward lurch of the SNP, driven that way by the exodus of lefty labourites post referendum, is surely significant.
Was the only purpose behind the Scottish Independence Movement the far left anti nuclear campaign?
A lot of people must have had different motives than that but since the referendum was still lost, well do they happily go along with the new improved washes lefter than left SNP?
An interesting place. The runway is absolutely vast. Was rumoured to be a stop-off point for the top-secret Aurora spy plane. Also B-2 stealth bombers went through there after 9/11. And plenty of special forces training around and abouts.
The tin-foil hat brigade linked the Mull of Kintyre Chinook disaster to activities at Macrihanish. Who knows. If it is being put forward as a space port, that rather suggests its military status may have been downgraded.
Shows you can't tell.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EkzxGr4Yx8U
10/02/2015 13:44
Always use the pretentious alternative. For example, instead of saying “I have a hangover”, try “J’ai la gueule de bois”. #GaneshStyleTips
He has all the scandal hit papers covered with his advisors...Mirror, News International, Telegraph.
Meet Team Miliband – the 'poisonous and dysfunctional' political pack behind Ed's campaign for No.10 http://specc.ie/1iPjNMF