politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from ph
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from phone polls – all but one of the LAB leads are from online surveys
The latest Ashcroft weekly phone poll is out and show a move back to CON and a 5% decline in the LAB vote. The figures and trend are in the chart above.
Comments
-
That is all very well, you say, but what if the leaders were holiday destinations? Well, I am glad you asked. Mr Cameron, according to our groups, would be “somewhere suave, like Monaco”, or quite possibly “an offshore island to store your money in”.
Mr Farage would simply be “Blighty!”, probably Margate or Southend because “they adore him down there” or (the view from Muswell Hill) “Benidorm.
Somewhere tacky and loud with egg and chips”. Mr Clegg would be somewhere “nice and inoffensive”, or possibly, since he must feel beleaguered, a distant location like the Caribbean “where people don’t know him so he won’t get hassled all the time”.
Mr Miliband? A place “where the traffic is terrible, because he doesn’t have any sense of direction.” Alternatively “the Moon, his own little world,” or more charitably “somewhere misunderstood – a really nice place but no-one goes there.”0 -
Ashcrofts so far this year:
11th Jan: Con +6
18th Jan: Con +1
25th Jan: Tie
1st Feb: Tie
8th Feb: Con +3
15th Feb: Lab +1
22nd Feb: Lab +4
1st Mar: Con +30 -
Bloody interesting re phone pollsters. Mike I rate them more than on liners. For my own betting something like 60:40 trust ratio.
Could be current sitn is narrow tory lead: a point or so.0 -
FPT
This is one of them "untested" pollsters at a GE, right?
0 -
Yougov also produce Conservative leads from time to time.0
-
YesSunil_Prasannan said:FPT
This is one of them "untested" pollsters at a GE, right?
0 -
"Ipsos" should be Ipsos MORI (no hyphen!).0
-
ELBOW of just the YouGov polls last week gives a Tory lead of 0.2%...Sean_F said:Yougov also produce Conservative leads from time to time.
0 -
If the telephone pollsters were polling weekly, we'd probably see a dead heat.Purseybear said:Bloody interesting re phone pollsters. Mike I rate them more than on liners. For my own betting something like 60:40 trust ratio.
Could be current sitn is narrow tory lead: a point or so.0 -
Tories more likely to, er, have phones? 0
-
Lord A = Harry Kane.0
-
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?0 -
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft? Labour were +1 aheadIshmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?0 -
Worth noting that Ipsos has the Tories level on 8/10 or 9/10 to vote. It also had them in front on that measure in January.
0 -
OGH has said so I think. The point was there was a properly branded ICM poll and a Ld A on the same day, with con 30/36 respectively.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft?Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?0 -
No, I think Mike was wrong, to say it was part of the Lord A weekly polling series.Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?
I think it was not, as Mike said it did not ask the VI question first, and Lord A's weekly polls asks VI first.0 -
13 telephone polls is a reasonable sample. We can probably say with some confidence that with the telephone companies, crossover has now taken place.0 -
They haveSean_F said:
13 telephone polls is a reasonable sample. We can probably say with some confidence that with the telephone companies, crossover has now taken place.
@TSEofPB: The Tories have achieved an average lead with the phone pollsters http://t.co/lVNuhfNC470 -
time to change my avatar then...Sean_F said:
13 telephone polls is a reasonable sample. We can probably say with some confidence that with the telephone companies, crossover has now taken place.0 -
Ipsos MORIchestnut said:Worth noting that Ipsos has the Tories level on 8/10 or 9/10 to vote. It also had them in front on that measure in January.
https://www.ipsos-mori.com/Assets/Docs/Polls/feb2015web4_Qs11_15.pdf0 -
The blues might just be ahead in terms of percentage of votes, but it's so close, that it would be very difficult to call.
Still miles behind in terms of what they need for a majority and probably struggling to get most seats on these numbers although the fundamentals have probably changed enough that they won't need quite as much as an 11% or so lead for a majority.
On balance still more upside for the Tories in the campaign, so I would probably go with most seats and most votes, but short of a majority, if predicting the outcome at this point.0 -
But Ashcroft that week put Labour +1Ishmael_X said:
OGH has said so I think. The point was there was a properly branded ICM poll and a Ld A on the same day, with con 30/36 respectively.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft?Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?0 -
Ashcroft - the gold standard of whores drawers.
0 -
Playing around with http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
I'm inputting Con 32.7; Lab 33.3 (30 Scotland) Lib Dem 7.8 (5 Scotland); SNP (40 Scotland, 3.4% overall)
yields
Con 277
Lab 273
LD 25
SNP 48
0 -
Please note, that graph doesn't include the latest AshcroftTheScreamingEagles said:
They haveSean_F said:
13 telephone polls is a reasonable sample. We can probably say with some confidence that with the telephone companies, crossover has now taken place.
@TSEofPB: The Tories have achieved an average lead with the phone pollsters http://t.co/lVNuhfNC470 -
I reckon it might be the Tories [but not by enough]. It's very tight and depends hugely on LD/UKIP/SNP performance.Peter_the_Punter (FPT) said:
And a 1% lead would give which Party most seats, SeanF?Sean_F said:
Rightly, he says look at the trend.Hengists_Gift said:
Ashcroft's pollster is up and down more than a tart's drawers! In fact thats what I will refer to Ashcroft's polls as. 'The Tart's Drawers'.TheScreamingEagles said:Ashcroft regains Gold Standard status
Con 34 (+2) Lab 31 (-5) LD 7 (NC) UKIP 14 (+3) Greens 7 (-1)
Since the start of the year, Lord A has produced 4 Conservative leads, 2 Labour leads, and 2 ties. That's an average Conservative lead of 1%, so far this year. That is out of line with internet panels, but in line with other telephone surveys. An average of all 13 telephone surveys this year puts the Conservatives 1% ahead.0 -
In 2010 phone polls were more accurate than the online ones, although 3 of the worst pollsters (Angus Reid, BPIX and One Poll) are no longer publishing polls. In addition, most of the inaccuracy related to the Lib Dems.
If you look at the 2010 polls in terms of who was closest to the Con - Lab gap (clearly the most important feature of the polls) the phone polls gave an average Con lead of 8.4%, the online polls gave an average Con lead of 8.2%. Not much difference, but the online polls were closest. Excluding Angus Reid - which was a huge outlier - and the online performance improves to give a gap of 7.4%, just 0.1% out!
The problem that we have is that we now have new pollsters and changes in methodology so it is difficult to be confident about reading past performance into the future.
There are lots of reasons to think one method is likely to be more accurate than the other - we will only find out which is correct on May 8th.
One last point - if there is a difference in likelihood to vote this may be less of an issue for Labour in marginal seats, where the campaign is fought hard, than in 'safe' seats. If so it could help maintain the efficiency of the Labour vote.0 -
-
I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. They are suffering from over exposure. With the major parties largely tied together and no one really sure how to model the rise of smaller parties its like trying to navigate ones way through a snowstorm......0
-
Sunil utters a cough that sounds suspiciously like "Literary Digest 1936"Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Any ideas about the relative demographics of those responding by phone, and those more likely to respond online?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1936#Campaign0 -
"Ukip MEP Diane James quit her election campaign for North West Hampshire yesterday due to ‘personal reasons’ relating to a sick family member."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-announces-its-contender-for-fareham-mp-1-6608081
Isn't she a councillor in Surrey?0 -
Surely it is obvious why online polls will favour Labour. Online use declines with each age group; Tory core support is over age 55. Nevertheless, I'd be amazed if pollsters do not adjust for this discrepancy.0
-
The telephone companies are currently finding lower levels of support for UKIP than the internet panels (11%, as opposed to 16% on average). That works to the advantage of the Conservatives.Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Any ideas about the relative demographics of those responding by phone, and those more likely to respond online?
I would surmise the reason is that internet panels will tend to attract people who are most strongly committed to politics.0 -
We have had far too many polls in this Parliament and I speak as a poll anorak, LOL!Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. They are suffering from over exposure. With the major parties largely tied together and no one really sure how to model the rise of smaller parties its like trying to navigate ones way through a snowstorm......
0 -
Isn't that because the Kippers are all busy spamming the Telegraph comments section, whilst still on dial-up internet?Sean_F said:
The telephone companies are currently finding lower levels of support for UKIP than the internet panels (11%, as opposed to 16% on average). That works to the advantage of the Conservatives.Smarmeron said:@Sean_F
Any ideas about the relative demographics of those responding by phone, and those more likely to respond online?0 -
That doesn't really fit with UKIP voters being old codgers who don't know how to use email though does it?hardpawn said:Surely it is obvious why online polls will favour Labour. Online use declines with each age group; Tory core support is over age 55. Nevertheless, I'd be amazed if pollsters do not adjust for this discrepancy.
0 -
Yes, and ICM had Con+4 with 36%. OGH point was that the Ld A result cast doubt on the ICM one.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But Ashcroft that week put Labour +1Ishmael_X said:
OGH has said so I think. The point was there was a properly branded ICM poll and a Ld A on the same day, with con 30/36 respectively.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft?Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?0 -
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
@Sunil_Prasannan
And as a good "scientist", you know that accurate measurements needs to be backed up with knowing what the hell you are actually measuring?
0 -
You will like my post at 4.33pmTGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
ELBOW includes all the week's polls (albeit weighted indirectly by sample size), the more, the merrier we say! It would be interesting to see if (during the final week of polling) we are more accurate than using the more traditional simple averageskieran said:In 2010 phone polls were more accurate than the online ones, although 3 of the worst pollsters (Angus Reid, BPIX and One Poll) are no longer publishing polls. In addition, most of the inaccuracy related to the Lib Dems.
If you look at the 2010 polls in terms of who was closest to the Con - Lab gap (clearly the most important feature of the polls) the phone polls gave an average Con lead of 8.4%, the online polls gave an average Con lead of 8.2%. Not much difference, but the online polls were closest. Excluding Angus Reid - which was a huge outlier - and the online performance improves to give a gap of 7.4%, just 0.1% out!
The problem that we have is that we now have new pollsters and changes in methodology so it is difficult to be confident about reading past performance into the future.
There are lots of reasons to think one method is likely to be more accurate than the other - we will only find out which is correct on May 8th.
One last point - if there is a difference in likelihood to vote this may be less of an issue for Labour in marginal seats, where the campaign is fought hard, than in 'safe' seats. If so it could help maintain the efficiency of the Labour vote. 0 -
WaverleyanotherDave said:"Ukip MEP Diane James quit her election campaign for North West Hampshire yesterday due to ‘personal reasons’ relating to a sick family member."
http://www.portsmouth.co.uk/news/politics/ukip-announces-its-contender-for-fareham-mp-1-6608081
Isn't she a councillor in Surrey?0 -
I like your posts whatever time of day or night I read 'em ducky !TheScreamingEagles said:
You will like my post at 4.33pmTGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
"Jihadi John's mother screamed 'that's my son' when she saw first beheading video - but did not report him
Ghania Emwazi realised that the the knife-wielding executioner who appeared in video showing murder of US journalist James Foley was her son Mohammed "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11444736/Mother-of-Mohammed-Emwazi-knew-he-was-Jihadi-John-from-the-outset.html0 -
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5720530136548474880 -
Taking only those polls with a conservative lead, whatever nebulous and ever changing category they might fall into at point x, we have crossover. OK guys.0
-
I think 11% is closer to the result that UKIP will get than 16% is.isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
That's still 3.6m votes.0 -
That's a very modest overall shift.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5720530136548474880 -
Important context for the Ashcroft polls, I'd argue.Sunil_Prasannan said:Ashcrofts so far this year:
11th Jan: Con +6
18th Jan: Con +1
25th Jan: Tie
1st Feb: Tie
8th Feb: Con +3
15th Feb: Lab +1
22nd Feb: Lab +4
1st Mar: Con +3
0 -
Hardly a white knuckle ride is it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
All that matters is that team Blue enjoys a lead in the Gold Standard of polls (typically defined as the poll with the largest Tory lead).JWisemann said:Taking only those polls with a conservative lead, whatever nebulous and ever changing category they might fall into at point x, we have crossover. OK guys.
0 -
No ever since the Sun hijacked Yougov before the last election Add the proliferation of Comres, Populus and Ashcroft polls and its getting rather pointless much like the US polling.TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
As for you absurd 'peak kipper ramblings' UKIP have peaked three times so far since the middle of 2012 and every time their vote share has remained higher once it has peaked than it was prior to the increase and it has then increased in the run up to the next election from that new base. Last year around at this time they were on a rough average of around 12. Now they are on 14. Thats hardly bad news for UKIP. The polls treatment of UKIP has nothing to do with my disaffection.
I could go on about how each of the sampling methods (phone/internet) excludes at least 9 million people or how panel based polling is questionable because panels are volunteer based and therefore have their own agenda for joining a polling panel (so the polls from them are not random per se) or indeed how the increasing regional variations in polling could undermine the national weighting approach of pollsters or indeed how many of the weighting systems do not handle step changes in voter opinion very well but I will not labour such points or about the validity of seemingly heavily weighted polls to get the right answer but I will not labour these points. Simply put I am increasingly sceptical about the integrity of polling simply because the circumstances have changed and the pollsters lack the wherewithal to adapt in a practical way.0 -
-
Damn! Which of you beat me to adding Ashcroft to the Wiki table? 0
-
If I was a football hooligan I be singing "Are You Angus Reid in Disguise"0
-
Lefties more likely to have social interactions online/ join social organisations?Sunil_Prasannan said:Tories more likely to, er, have phones?
0 -
UKIP going down or down?isam said:
Hardly a white knuckle ride is it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
@Alanbrooke
That's my entirely unscientific analysis as well.0 -
Sorry got my respectivelys in a twist.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But Ashcroft that week put Labour +1Ishmael_X said:
OGH has said so I think. The point was there was a properly branded ICM poll and a Ld A on the same day, with con 30/36 respectively.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft?Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?
Given the confusion and pointless obscurantism on who is actually polling, the bouncy castle effect and the November Hallam error corrected in February, I'd like to see his Lordship taken out of the averages.0 -
Decided to take some Con-Lib Dem coalition at 6.4 with Betfair - was my least green of all the sensible options, but 6.4 looks to me about the right price to buy at - definitely NOT 4-1 as it is at the bookies.0
-
Try chanting it out loud. It sadly doesn't work with three syllables..Roger said:If I was a football hooligan I be singing "Are You Angus Reid in Disguise"
0 -
Anyone remember the old PB adage?
"The poll with the lowest Labour score is the correct one".0 -
Looks as though they are higher now than they were at the start to meSunil_Prasannan said:
UKIP going down or down?isam said:
Hardly a white knuckle ride is it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
Ishmael, I always calculate the weekly figures I use for ELBOW from the available data in His Lordship's tables (normally tables 2 and 3), never use his "published" figures (table 4).Ishmael_X said:
Sorry got my respectivelys in a twist.Sunil_Prasannan said:
But Ashcroft that week put Labour +1Ishmael_X said:
OGH has said so I think. The point was there was a properly branded ICM poll and a Ld A on the same day, with con 30/36 respectively.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Do we know for certain that it was the 15 Feb Ashcroft?Ishmael_X said:
WHAT?TheScreamingEagles said:
The 15 Feb Ashcroft Monday poll was a ICM phone poll (we know this from OGH). ICM phone has been tested in a previous GE.
Are you seriously saying that Lord A is arbitrarily switching polling companies to produce what purports to be a uniform series of polls?
Given the confusion and pointless obscurantism on who is actually polling, the bouncy castle effect and the November Hallam error corrected in February, I'd like to see his Lordship taken out of the averages.0 -
How about compared with November? December? January?isam said:
Looks as though they are higher now than they were at the start to meSunil_Prasannan said:
UKIP going down or down?isam said:
Hardly a white knuckle ride is it?Sunil_Prasannan said:
Sam did you see this graph?isam said:
You always claim "peak kipper" but are never prepared to bet that it is the case... obviously you would have lost a fortune so far had backed your opinion, but isn't it a bit embarrassing to make claims then refuse to back them up?TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
0 -
An interesting site - look at the two Rother Valley and Rotherham - areas where there has been recent voting (albeit for the PCC) since the UKIP surge.Pulpstar said:Playing around with http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
I'm inputting Con 32.7; Lab 33.3 (30 Scotland) Lib Dem 7.8 (5 Scotland); SNP (40 Scotland, 3.4% overall)
yields
Con 277
Lab 273
LD 25
SNP 480 -
Rather annoyingly, my father (an old school norman tebbit-type tory) has decided to return to the tory fold, after flirting with UKIP over the past year.
It's particularly annoying, because living in the unexpectedly marginal Solihull, I was trying to convince him to actually vote UKIP in order to deprive the tories of a vote, increasing the chances of the LD's holding on and the country returning a labour led government.
For full disclosure, I'm a member of the green party.
FPTP rocks!0 -
Everyone earlier who were supposing that the DUP may take ministerial seats, you can take 100-1 with Shadsy on a DUP-Tory coalition. They will offer confidence & supply at the most though, so don't waste your money.0
-
And another six in Wales..
"Six arrested after Carmarthen school child abuse claims" (Beeb)0 -
Swingback! Thanks for confirming Rod's thesis, I'm off to lump on the 6.8 Con Maj.Pong said:Rather annoyingly, my father (an old school norman tebbit-type tory) has decided to return to the tory fold, after flirting with UKIP over the past year.
It's annoying, because living in Solihull, I was trying to convince him to actually vote UKIP to deprive the tories of a vote, increasing the chances of the LD's holding on and the country returning a labour led government.
For full disclosure, I'm a member of the green party.
FPTP rocks!0 -
He saw through your fiendish left-wing plot.Pong said:Rather annoyingly, my father (an old school norman tebbit-type tory) has decided to return to the tory fold, after flirting with UKIP over the past year.
It's annoying, because living in Solihull, I was trying to convince him to actually vote UKIP to deprive the tories of a vote, increasing the chances of the LD's holding on and the country returning a labour led government.
For full disclosure, I'm a member of the green party.
FPTP rocks! 0 -
Your old man sounds very sensible. I'd urge everyone in Solihull to boot out Burt !Pong said:Rather annoyingly, my father (an old school norman tebbit-type tory) has decided to return to the tory fold, after flirting with UKIP over the past year.
It's particularly annoying, because living in Solihull, I was trying to convince him to actually vote UKIP in order to deprive the tories of a vote, increasing the chances of the LD's holding on and the country returning a labour led government.
For full disclosure, I'm a member of the green party.
FPTP rocks!0 -
His lordship appears to have produced another of his bouncy polls. – what larks..!0
-
Kind of blows Chuka Umunna's theory out the water.isam said:
That doesn't really fit with UKIP voters being old codgers who don't know how to use email though does it?hardpawn said:Surely it is obvious why online polls will favour Labour. Online use declines with each age group; Tory core support is over age 55. Nevertheless, I'd be amazed if pollsters do not adjust for this discrepancy.
I hope that the father is stripped of his British citizenship along with his mother if she has it as well. I am sure Guardianistas will argue that they will enrich our society so should be allowed in.isam said:"Jihadi John's mother screamed 'that's my son' when she saw first beheading video - but did not report him
Ghania Emwazi realised that the the knife-wielding executioner who appeared in video showing murder of US journalist James Foley was her son Mohammed "
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/islamic-state/11444736/Mother-of-Mohammed-Emwazi-knew-he-was-Jihadi-John-from-the-outset.html
0 -
I've got those both backed for UKIP; with no loss should Labour win.weejonnie said:
An interesting site - look at the two Rother Valley and Rotherham - areas where there has been recent voting (albeit for the PCC) since the UKIP surge.Pulpstar said:Playing around with http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
I'm inputting Con 32.7; Lab 33.3 (30 Scotland) Lib Dem 7.8 (5 Scotland); SNP (40 Scotland, 3.4% overall)
yields
Con 277
Lab 273
LD 25
SNP 480 -
JJ
"Try chanting it out loud. It sadly doesn't work with three syllables.."
Let's hope MORI come out with some unbelievable numbers then0 -
An interesting new market from SPIN:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5052257/uk-general-election-name-the-government
0 -
UKIPs two year poll moving average reminds me of the higher highs signal in technical analysis. Place your money accordingly.Hengists_Gift said:
No ever since the Sun hijacked Yougov before the last election Add the proliferation of Comres, Populus and Ashcroft polls and its getting rather pointless much like the US polling.TGOHF said:
... ever since they clearly showed peak Kipper ?Hengists_Gift said:I don't get too excited about the polls anymore. ..
As for you absurd 'peak kipper ramblings' UKIP have peaked three times so far since the middle of 2012 and every time their vote share has remained higher once it has peaked than it was prior to the increase and it has then increased in the run up to the next election from that new base. Last year around at this time they were on a rough average of around 12. Now they are on 14. Thats hardly bad news for UKIP. The polls treatment of UKIP has nothing to do with my disaffection.
I could go on about how each of the sampling methods (phone/internet) excludes at least 9 million people or how panel based polling is questionable because panels are volunteer based and therefore have their own agenda for joining a polling panel (so the polls from them are not random per se) or indeed how the increasing regional variations in polling could undermine the national weighting approach of pollsters or indeed how many of the weighting systems do not handle step changes in voter opinion very well but I will not labour such points or about the validity of seemingly heavily weighted polls to get the right answer but I will not labour these points. Simply put I am increasingly sceptical about the integrity of polling simply because the circumstances have changed and the pollsters lack the wherewithal to adapt in a practical way.
0 -
Amazingly, Labour's vote share in Rother Valley was 6% lower in 2010 than in 1983. That points to a massive level of disaffection with the party in that area.Pulpstar said:
I've got those both backed for UKIP; with no loss should Labour win.weejonnie said:
An interesting site - look at the two Rother Valley and Rotherham - areas where there has been recent voting (albeit for the PCC) since the UKIP surge.Pulpstar said:Playing around with http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
I'm inputting Con 32.7; Lab 33.3 (30 Scotland) Lib Dem 7.8 (5 Scotland); SNP (40 Scotland, 3.4% overall)
yields
Con 277
Lab 273
LD 25
SNP 48
0 -
Spotted any obvious ricks >?Richard_Nabavi said:An interesting new market from SPIN:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5052257/uk-general-election-name-the-government0 -
We should get TNS, either tomorrow or Wednesday, which will presumably show a large Labour lead.0 -
It appears that the tide may at last be turning in favour of the Tories but it's probably too little, too late. They're now where they needed to be about 2-3 months ago. We'll be postal voting in little more than 8 weeks' time.0
-
Really? Considering the demographic and industrial changes over the last 30 years it would look very stable.Sean_F said:
Amazingly, Labour's vote share in Rother Valley was 6% lower in 2010 than in 1983. That points to a massive level of disaffection with the party in that area.Pulpstar said:
I've got those both backed for UKIP; with no loss should Labour win.weejonnie said:
An interesting site - look at the two Rother Valley and Rotherham - areas where there has been recent voting (albeit for the PCC) since the UKIP surge.Pulpstar said:Playing around with http://may2015.com/category/seat-calculator/
I'm inputting Con 32.7; Lab 33.3 (30 Scotland) Lib Dem 7.8 (5 Scotland); SNP (40 Scotland, 3.4% overall)
yields
Con 277
Lab 273
LD 25
SNP 480 -
It sounds like Labour aren't interested in a coalition with anyone in this article from a few days ago.Pulpstar said:If you want as good an indicator to the likely result as any though, note who is absolutely WORST PRICE on Labour Minority @ 7-2.
That's right, @Shadsy of this parish - as big a steer as any you'll find that that's the most likely result.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/feb/26/ed-balls-plays-down-prospect-of-labour-deal-with-snp0 -
"and even then the GE score will be lower than that " ?Eastwinger said:Anyone remember the old PB adage?
"The poll with the lowest Labour score is the correct one".0 -
one things for sure - secondjobsgate doesn't seem do have done them any damageGreenwich_Floater said:The blues might just be ahead in terms of percentage of votes, but it's so close, that it would be very difficult to call.
Still miles behind in terms of what they need for a majority and probably struggling to get most seats on these numbers although the fundamentals have probably changed enough that they won't need quite as much as an 11% or so lead for a majority.
On balance still more upside for the Tories in the campaign, so I would probably go with most seats and most votes, but short of a majority, if predicting the outcome at this point.0 -
O/T England and Sunderland footballer, Adam Johnson arrested for having sex with a child. Source - Radio 5Live0
-
Even Sunil's elbow is clearly showing a Kipper decline.
0 -
I spent half an hour churning the figures earlier, nothing obvious tbh.Pulpstar said:
Spotted any obvious ricks >?Richard_Nabavi said:An interesting new market from SPIN:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5052257/uk-general-election-name-the-government
The calculation is slightly different if you have a credit account though.0 -
That would appear to be the case. Probably helped having a Labour man accused too, although Straw came out of it massively better than Rifkind.kjohnw said:
one things for sure - secondjobsgate doesn't seem do have done them any damageGreenwich_Floater said:The blues might just be ahead in terms of percentage of votes, but it's so close, that it would be very difficult to call.
Still miles behind in terms of what they need for a majority and probably struggling to get most seats on these numbers although the fundamentals have probably changed enough that they won't need quite as much as an 11% or so lead for a majority.
On balance still more upside for the Tories in the campaign, so I would probably go with most seats and most votes, but short of a majority, if predicting the outcome at this point.0 -
Perhaps better expressed as Rifkind had massively further to fall than Straw....Greenwich_Floater said:
That would appear to be the case. Probably helped having a Labour man accused too, although Straw came out of it massively better than Rifkind.kjohnw said:
one things for sure - secondjobsgate doesn't seem do have done them any damageGreenwich_Floater said:The blues might just be ahead in terms of percentage of votes, but it's so close, that it would be very difficult to call.
Still miles behind in terms of what they need for a majority and probably struggling to get most seats on these numbers although the fundamentals have probably changed enough that they won't need quite as much as an 11% or so lead for a majority.
On balance still more upside for the Tories in the campaign, so I would probably go with most seats and most votes, but short of a majority, if predicting the outcome at this point.0 -
Which GE did the adage prove to be true?TGOHF said:
"and even then the GE score will be lower than that " ?Eastwinger said:Anyone remember the old PB adage?
"The poll with the lowest Labour score is the correct one".
Presumably not 20100 -
@Pong inboxPong said:
I spent half an hour churning the figures earlier, nothing obvious tbh.Pulpstar said:
Spotted any obvious ricks >?Richard_Nabavi said:An interesting new market from SPIN:
http://www.sportingindex.com/spread-betting/politics/british/mm4.uk.meeting.5052257/uk-general-election-name-the-government
The calculation is slightly different if you have a credit account though.0 -
He's a rare thing. Iraqi army appears to be taking territory from the beautiful young men murderous mad bastards:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-316996320
