I can't see the Lib Dems getting over 30 seats and losing Orkney. If they lose Orkney, sub 25 beckons imo.
I've just had a look at the Orkney and Zetland seat over the last 3 elections. Now this is going to depend on whether you think Carmichael has a personal vote or not.
But. In 2001, the Libs won the seat with less than 7000 total votes. The SNP were on 2400 and the Lab and Cons on about 3500 each, since then, the SNP vote dipped in 2005 and rose a little to 2010. So let's imagine what has happened to the Lab and Tory votes.
I see a scenario where the Libs swept up both Labour and Tory votes not on personal vote but on national swing to the Liberals. A swing that has now reversed significantly. I suggest that it is not personal vote but lending of Tory and Labour votes that gave an abnormally high Liberal vote in 2005 and 2010 while Wallace built a personal vote, Carmichael was lent votes due to Liberal overall performance.
As such I can see almost the entire Labour vote going to the SNP, while the Tories get a still "lend" votes to the Liberals (who return to historic norms + Tory lend) and the SNP clean up with the Labour vote and significant Liberal share.
That could mean a result of SNP 9000, Liberal 7500, Tory 2000, Labour 1500. This is not outwith the historic shares and the apparent 2015 movement. The 11k in 2010 was a historical aberration. It was "lent" votes from the SNP and Labour and Tories.
While your result is possible, I think Carmicheal will hold his seat because:
1. The LibDems held both Orkney and Shetland in the Scottish parliament election, despite being wiped out everywhere else 2. The 'yes' for independence was simply not that high in O&S - I think it was c. 35-38%, which means Carmicheal has a large number of unionist voters he can borrow from
It was not so very long ago that we did have such challenge and robust discussion. Think of the Anti-Nazi league and similar outfits who made sure that the BNP and people like them did not get the oxygen they needed. We failed to do the same re Islam/Islamism/Jihadism for all sorts of reasons - and it has been disastrous. This Cohen article sums it up very well. http://www.standpointmag.com/features-january-february-2015-great-betrayal-liberals-appease-islam-nick-cohen-the-left
It is not robust discussion which is missing. It is courage.
But we just need to do it - and be prepared to ignore the noises off. If Ed Davey were serious, he would have stood up for my Lib Dem candidate when he was being attacked by fellow Lib Dem members over the Jesus and Mo cartoons. All it takes is for some politicians to show a bit of bravery.
At the moment we are outsourcing our moral compass and courage to the likes of Marf. It is pathetic that the nation of Orwell and Wilkes and the Tolpuddle Martyrs and the Chartists and Paine and Burke and Wilberforce is reduced to quivering jelly in the face of narcissistic liars and psychos whose whole moral and factual edifice can be pulled apart in minutes, if only those questioning them spent more than a few minutes doing the basic research. Pretty much everything Cage says is a lie and a demonstrable one. But no journalist ever says that to them.
"Do not be afraid" as a middle-aged man once said to the unarmed masses in the face of what we thought was the invincible Communist state.
The ANL would never have stood up to muslim fascists. Never. Moreover if someone were a Mussolini fascist (the original fascist) and did not have a racist bone in their body, the ANL would have been all over them.
Let's take a more extreme example. Adam Johnson. Do you think there is a single person in public life who would put their head above the parapet and point out that this is (possibly) not the crime that public opinion deems it to be? There is nothing in that situation where anyone can consider facts or the details of the case and question anything other than "this sick fucking paedo needs strung up" and get any response other than "you're a paedo too, lynch him".
The same applies to challenging anyone who can pull a race card or a gender card or any other interest group of "who can scream the loudest" in the court of public opinion. There is a reason why even UKIP can't stand up for a PPC that thinks it might have been a good idea of Mohammed Emwazi had killed himself when he was a depressed student.
Osborne's budget cont....I did read a while back that Maurice Saatchi and a team were working on something that he thought would be an election winning policy. As it hasn't been unveiled yet the budget seems the likely moment.
If there is a Tory to be afraid of it's him. He's smarter than the lot of them put together.
Are you sure it wasn't the rise in the higher rate threshold?
Osborne's budget cont....I did read a while back that Maurice Saatchi and a team were working on something that he thought would be an election winning policy. As it hasn't been unveiled yet the budget seems the likely moment.
If there is a Tory to be afraid of it's him. He's smarter than the lot of them put together.
I agree. Osborne is excellent, the best Tory since Thatcher.
@Roger Nothing half baked about the policy. It basically removes the need for developers to contribute to the increased demand on local amenities, and shoves the bill onto the existing residents. It is a fully formed and wrapped Con con trick that no one will be smart enough to notice.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
I can't see the Lib Dems getting over 30 seats and losing Orkney. If they lose Orkney, sub 25 beckons imo.
I've just had a look at the Orkney and Zetland seat over the last 3 elections. Now this is going to depend on whether you think Carmichael has a personal vote or not.
But. In 2001, the Libs won the seat with less than 7000 total votes. The SNP were on 2400 and the Lab and Cons on about 3500 each, since then, the SNP vote dipped in 2005 and rose a little to 2010. So let's imagine what has happened to the Lab and Tory votes.
I see a scenario where the Libs swept up both Labour and Tory votes not on personal vote but on national swing to the Liberals. A swing that has now reversed significantly. I suggest that it is not personal vote but lending of Tory and Labour votes that gave an abnormally high Liberal vote in 2005 and 2010 while Wallace built a personal vote, Carmichael was lent votes due to Liberal overall performance.
As such I can see almost the entire Labour vote going to the SNP, while the Tories get a still "lend" votes to the Liberals (who return to historic norms + Tory lend) and the SNP clean up with the Labour vote and significant Liberal share.
That could mean a result of SNP 9000, Liberal 7500, Tory 2000, Labour 1500. This is not outwith the historic shares and the apparent 2015 movement. The 11k in 2010 was a historical aberration. It was "lent" votes from the SNP and Labour and Tories.
While your result is possible, I think Carmicheal will hold his seat because:
1. The LibDems held both Orkney and Shetland in the Scottish parliament election, despite being wiped out everywhere else 2. The 'yes' for independence was simply not that high in O&S - I think it was c. 35-38%, which means Carmicheal has a large number of unionist voters he can borrow from
Remember that constituents in Orkney and Zetland have had to put up with the UK Governments complete and utter failure to address Oil and Gas Industry concerns over the Supplementary Charge. Maybe changes in the budget will help this but a lot will still ask "why did you wait".
"The ANL would never have stood up to muslim fascists. Never. Moreover if someone were a Mussolini fascist (the original fascist) and did not have a racist bone in their body, the ANL would have been all over them."
Complete rubbish. The ANL were about the only pressure group from the 70's that were prepared to face down the fascists. They could get numbers onto the street that no other organization could. Where do you get your information from? It's clear from your post that you know nothing about them.
"The ANL would never have stood up to muslim fascists. Never. Moreover if someone were a Mussolini fascist (the original fascist) and did not have a racist bone in their body, the ANL would have been all over them."
Complete rubbish. The ANL were about the only pressure group from the 70's that were prepared to face down the fascists. They could get numbers onto the street that no other organization could. Where do you get your information from? It's clear from your post that you know nothing about them.
I don't recall a single ANL march against a pro-Sharia mosque or cleric.
@DavidL If the poll is viable, it would be to the Tories advantage to have him all over the media. If he isn't, then it would be reasonable to assume it was a pile of utter horse manure.
I'm all in pretty much on Labour - I don't think they stand a chance though. I hate backing EdM in a big way, and I hate everything Labour have done in the last 40 years. I hate, d
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Embrace your inner peasant - you'll fit right in then.
You're quite right. The theme is that we, the electorate, aren't up to it. This very theme comes from all those idiots that cold-call and are thrown into disarray when you answer.
I get emails from my bank (NatWest) generally proposing how fun it might be to get a free hat or some other crap. I don't want fun from my bank - I want banking. I've no idea of how they deliver fun, but I can assure you that they have no concept of banking worth delivering.
Remember that constituents in Orkney and Zetland have had to put up with the UK Governments complete and utter failure to address Oil and Gas Industry concerns over the Supplementary Charge. Maybe changes in the budget will help this but a lot will still ask "why did you wait".
Orkney was 33% 'yes', Shetland was 36%.
Two-thirds of the constituency is pro-union. The SNP is unlikely to overcome this.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Tend to agree Richard. I get quite a few e-mails from the Tories and my normal response, as someone sympathetic to their cause, is: seriously??
I think the idea that this election is going to be won and lost on social media and the internet is more than somewhat oversold.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
I got the same e-mail. GIven the summaries of all the policy speeches are linked in the e-mail I think you are making too much out of it. You just can't stand Farage which is fair enough.
However, he is the party leader and it is for him to set the tone for the parties members and supporters in his set speeches. Now not everyone would have been able to watch him on Friday. So sending his speech video out is fair enough in my book.
Whether we like it or not in the post Obama age (especially with two of his advisers involved in the election) the cult of personality is going to pervade the campaign using every medium of communication they can think of.
There again in politics whether it be Churchill, Thatcher or Blair personality counts in the communications age.
The versions of the new poster will get more coverage than the original.
Labour isn't twerking
Social Media 1 - 0 Satchi
Err, do you understand how social media works because this poster going virl would be a huge win for both the Tories and Saatchi.
Not if there's photochopped versions with Call Me Dave's face on it (and there will be). The point of Ad Agencies is to control the media image. Saatchi is no longer capable of this. The Tory party gophers came up with a much better and less risky "poster" with Miliband and Salmond "you're worst nightmare just got worst".
There is a lot of failure to get the new paradigm amongst the establishment. "Funded by UK Government" is a good example of this, it was begging for parody and got what it asked for.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Politicians are needy. And people who join political parties are often equally insecure, and see (like with religion) buying into a belief system as a way of becoming more relevent (or important) themselves.
People who are comfortable and secure don't need the crutch of a label.
Right: I think I've insulted 99.3% of pb.com posters now. I can get back to trying to write a python to javascript "compiler"...
@MaxPB In this case it might be a win, but since the Tories on here would claim a live streaming of Cameron and Osborne having carnal relations with a goat would be a clear Tory win, I will reserve judgement for a while.
@DavidL If the poll is viable, it would be to the Tories advantage to have him all over the media. If he isn't, then it would be reasonable to assume it was a pile of utter horse manure.
There was more than one such poll unless I am becoming more delusional than normal. I found it....surprising.
I am a great fan of Osborne who I think has done an incredible job in terrible circumstances but I can well recognise that there are several things about him that are going to wind up more than the usual suspects intensely.
In fairness I have always thought he recognised this himself which is why he backed DC.
For UKIP it is not fair enough, it';s a vanity project for Nige and if Rabid Kippers like Tyndall with his incessant ramblings against fact and logic can't stand Farage, it's no wonder Peak Kipper was 6 months ago.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Tend to agree Richard. I get quite a few e-mails from the Tories and my normal response, as someone sympathetic to their cause, is: seriously??
I think the idea that this election is going to be won and lost on social media and the internet is more than somewhat oversold.
There is a very select number of people who really really go big on the whole twitter thing and are all over it for Question Time or a latest political announcement. I doubt very few of those people are swing voters.
I can't see the Lib Dems getting over 30 seats and losing Orkney. If they lose Orkney, sub 25 beckons imo.
I've just had a look at the Orkney and Zetland seat over the last 3 elections. Now this is going to depend on whether you think Carmichael has a personal vote or not.
But. In 2001, the Libs won the seat with less than 7000 total votes. The SNP were on 2400 and the Lab and Cons on about 3500 each, since then, the SNP vote dipped in 2005 and rose a little to 2010. So let's imagine what has happened to the Lab and Tory votes.
I see a scenario where the Libs swept up both Labour and Tory votes not on personal vote but on national swing to the Liberals. A swing that has now reversed significantly. I suggest that it is not personal vote but lending of Tory and Labour votes that gave an abnormally high Liberal vote in 2005 and 2010 while Wallace built a personal vote, Carmichael was lent votes due to Liberal overall performance.
As such I can see almost the entire Labour vote going to the SNP, while the Tories get a still "lend" votes to the Liberals (who return to historic norms + Tory lend) and the SNP clean up with the Labour vote and significant Liberal share.
That could mean a result of SNP 9000, Liberal 7500, Tory 2000, Labour 1500. This is not outwith the historic shares and the apparent 2015 movement. The 11k in 2010 was a historical aberration. It was "lent" votes from the SNP and Labour and Tories.
While your result is possible, I think Carmicheal will hold his seat because:
1. The LibDems held both Orkney and Shetland in the Scottish parliament election, despite being wiped out everywhere else 2. The 'yes' for independence was simply not that high in O&S - I think it was c. 35-38%, which means Carmicheal has a large number of unionist voters he can borrow from
Remember that constituents in Orkney and Zetland have had to put up with the UK Governments complete and utter failure to address Oil and Gas Industry concerns over the Supplementary Charge. Maybe changes in the budget will help this but a lot will still ask "why did you wait".
It is impressive how weak minded people are so easily persuaded by a little simplistic propaganda by our military industrial complex.
Germany is cutting defence spending this year as are Italy, Russia, Hungary, Bulgaria and of course ourselves. To what purpose do people propose we rearm?
Anyway foreign policy is not the Conservatives strength, and is particularly off putting for younger voters who tend to be a little more savvy.
I think I have read that Putin plans to double expenditure on his military. The Germans are more interested in making money than military activity. They don't even let their troops go out on patrol at night.
@FrancisUrquhart Social media is a lot more persuasive and ubiquitous than most people realise. Very few now don't plug into it in some form or another, even the "grey voters" tend to have access, if only for contact with the grandchildren.
"Nothing half baked about the policy. It basically removes the need for developers to contribute to the increased demand on local amenities, and shoves the bill onto the existing residents."
I just heard snippets. Is it the long lost vote winner? It didn't seem to grab anyone's attention.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Tend to agree Richard. I get quite a few e-mails from the Tories and my normal response, as someone sympathetic to their cause, is: seriously??
I think the idea that this election is going to be won and lost on social media and the internet is more than somewhat oversold.
There is a very select number of people who really really go big on the whole twitter thing and are all over it for Question Time or a latest political announcement. I doubt very few of those people are swing voters.
On the plus side you can do your bit for the team without getting wet or cold or having to walk miles. I think it is mostly harmless.
This election is in many ways quite boring. People are going round in circles about dead heat opinion polls here and the general public is uninterested and even unaware.
I wonder if it is because so many people no longer watch the TV news or read a paper, instead getting their news online from sources of their choice, perhaps reading a story or two in each and if it is interesting looking on more than one site for the story for balance.
I now find it hard to believe that as little as a decade ago, I spent half an hour of the few precious hours after work watching the drivel on BBC or ITV news hearing how the Prime Minister did this or the leader of the opposition did that and then hearing guest shills with vested interests maundering on about whatever the news Editor decided was important.
You have probably hit a nail on the head there. This site is now entering its boring stage as everyone goes on about polls and methodologies and odds and betting strategies and models.
For UKIP it is not fair enough, it';s a vanity project for Nige and if Rabid Kippers like Tyndall with his incessant ramblings against fact and logic can't stand Farage, it's no wonder Peak Kipper was 6 months ago.
You really need to take your head out of your nether orifice because the only thing you seem to be able to produce is excrement combined with an extremely fetid flatulence......
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
Politicians are needy. And people who join political parties are often equally insecure, and see (like with religion) buying into a belief system as a way of becoming more relevent (or important) themselves.
People who are comfortable and secure don't need the crutch of a label.
Right: I think I've insulted 99.3% of pb.com posters now. I can get back to trying to write a python to javascript "compiler"...
The crutch of a label?
I used to think "two lost souls swimming in a fishbowl" was the worst metaphor ever.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
We certainly do. I miss Avery and his contributions.
Not sure if this is on topic or off but sometimes I do wonder at the way in which party leaders try to communicate with their supporters. Now I am no great fan of any party even the one I currently support so criticism is easy but sometimes they make it too easy.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
I find Steven Woolfe's emails quite interesting. Usually a summary of what he has been up to and links to relevant articles. Not everyone has the time to go over the week's updates on what the party has been up to so having it summarised in an email is quite useful.
For UKIP it is not fair enough, it';s a vanity project for Nige and if Rabid Kippers like Tyndall with his incessant ramblings against fact and logic can't stand Farage, it's no wonder Peak Kipper was 6 months ago.
Hmm. How many times did you get it wrong there. Let me count them
1. I am not a rabid kipper as anyone on here from whatever party will tell you. 2. Everything I have said on here regarding the EU and our relationship with it has been factually correct and consistent. It is you who have tried - and failed - to find inconsistencies in my postings. This appears to be because you are too thick to understand basic English. 3. It is not that I 'can't stand Farage'. I simply think he is the wrong person to lead UKIP. His ego is too big and he has driven out many very committed and knowledgeable Eurosceptics because - it appears - he thought they were a threat to his position. 4. It is you who have failed to provide facts:
Your claims about the £15 billion cost of EFTA membership - wrong. Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong. Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.
As I said yesterday, every single posting you have made regarding the UK's relationship with the EU has been factually incorrect. It is no wonder with a mind like that you find it unbelievable that anyone else might actually be telling the truth.
Return to your rock and crawl under it Dair. It is all that you are good for.
This election is in many ways quite boring. People are going round in circles about dead heat opinion polls here and the general public is uninterested and even unaware.
I wonder if it is because so many people no longer watch the TV news or read a paper, instead getting their news online from sources of their choice, perhaps reading a story or two in each and if it is interesting looking on more than one site for the story for balance.
I now find it hard to believe that as little as a decade ago, I spent half an hour of the few precious hours after work watching the drivel on BBC or ITV news hearing how the Prime Minister did this or the leader of the opposition did that and then hearing guest shills with vested interests maundering on about whatever the news Editor decided was important.
You have probably hit a nail on the head there. This site is now entering its boring stage as everyone goes on about polls and methodologies and odds and betting strategies and models.
Its the phoney war right now. None the parties have published their manifestos. The Tories have not had their last budget. The real campaign hasn't begun. All we are getting are fringe policies from the big two who are just limbering up with some gentle sparring. Lets see what its like at the end of the month......
@DavidL If the poll is viable, it would be to the Tories advantage to have him all over the media. If he isn't, then it would be reasonable to assume it was a pile of utter horse manure.
There was more than one such poll unless I am becoming more delusional than normal. I found it....surprising.
I am a great fan of Osborne who I think has done an incredible job in terrible circumstances but I can well recognise that there are several things about him that are going to wind up more than the usual suspects intensely.
In fairness I have always thought he recognised this himself which is why he backed DC.
Osborne is a perceptive man, to be fair. For instance, he had the self-awareness to realise that he wouldn't be as charismatic or attractive a figurehead for the Conservatives as David Cameron back in 2005.
"I remember Blair and Thatcher, Roger, but who was this Peach guy?"
You remember....let me guess you were eleven going on sixteen Arthur Scargill was just a voodoo doll on Alderman Roberts fireplace....you had a picture of Keith Joseph on your wall and another of Ted Heath covered in dart holes
For those of you into modern history, I've just started a biography by Marc Morris of Edward I. Only read the first chapter, but the writing style's very easy to read.
dr spyn Well Ed is only the 4th most influential person in Doncaster according to the local paper after the head of the Council, the Mayor and Louis Tomlinson from One Direction
For UKIP it is not fair enough, it';s a vanity project for Nige and if Rabid Kippers like Tyndall with his incessant ramblings against fact and logic can't stand Farage, it's no wonder Peak Kipper was 6 months ago.
You really need to take your head out of your nether orifice because the only thing you seem to be able to produce is excrement combined with an extremely fetid flatulence......
Wouldn't the capital insertion have a detrimental effect on the flatulent flow?
"I remember Blair and Thatcher, Roger, but who was this Peach guy?"
You remember....let me guess you were eleven going on sixteen Arthur Scargill was just a voodoo doll on Alderman Roberts fireplace....you had a picture of Keith Joseph on your wall and another of Ted Heath covered in dart holes
I do remember, now I come to think of it, Auberon Waugh setting up the Blair Peach Joke Club. Can't remember any of the actual jokes though.
I often wonder why we bother. My local MP is Karen Buck - I cannot imagine a better advert against democracy.
There's a real danger that the average turnip in your garden has less influence politically than she does. I think we can all agree that this is abhorrent.
I've nothing against Mrs Buck personally, I'm merely conveying my thoughts upon reading what she's written, and reflecting on her record.
It is impressive how weak minded people are so easily persuaded by a little simplistic propaganda by our military industrial complex.
Germany is cutting defence spending this year as are Italy, Russia, Hungary, Bulgaria and of course ourselves. To what purpose do people propose we rearm?
Anyway foreign policy is not the Conservatives strength, and is particularly off putting for younger voters who tend to be a little more savvy.
I think I have read that Putin plans to double expenditure on his military. The Germans are more interested in making money than military activity. They don't even let their troops go out on patrol at night.
I've read that its going up by 33% - but other sources say 5%ish - so you pay your money... It would seem Russian modernisation plans are spread over the next 5 years or so. But its spending is still just about half of UK France and Germany combined The question is can it afford it? The FT says the falling oil price, sanctions and recession are slowing down Putin's spending drive. There may be a difference between Kremlin propaganda and what's actually happening.
@MaxPB In this case it might be a win, but since the Tories on here would claim a live streaming of Cameron and Osborne having carnal relations with a goat would be a clear Tory win, I will reserve judgement for a while.
Because it is a subject where the Tories are basically bulletproof any shopped versions are just going to reinforce the message, like the one with Ed Balls in the Miley Cyrus position. If this poster goes viral it will be a win for the Tories because it will get their message of being strong on the economy to people who wouldn't normally see it and in a way that people are more receptive to than the original while also taking the piss out of Labour, reinforcing the general Tory message that Labour are a bunch of jokers.
It might seem like a lot from one poster but that is the power of social media. Idiots like Zoella have bought million pound houses on the back of it.
@MaxPB There will be winners and losers for all the "party posters". But the press barons, ad execs, and politicians will not be in control of how it pans out.
Mr. Urquhart, it's an indefensibly oppressive measure. Why should people without even televisions be forced to fund a television network?
The Telly Poll Tax is flawed in a number of ways, but if implemented it will just blast everybody and make up for those...fair it ain't, but BBC will fight tooth and nail for any other funding mechanism.
R5 was already pumping out the propaganda this afternoon that nobody, I state nobody, wants anything other than a small tweak to current funding arrangement, in order to make sure those watching iPlayer pay and the way to do that is Telly Poll Tax.
I am sure those without tellys going to love stumping up £140+, and I would suggest a massive proportion of those are very very poor.
I often wonder why we bother. My local MP is Karen Buck - I cannot imagine a better advert against democracy.
There's a real danger that the average turnip in your garden has less influence politically than she does. I think we can all agree that this is abhorrent.
I've nothing against Mrs Buck personally, I'm merely conveying my thoughts upon reading what she's written, and reflecting on her record.
I'm afraid to say in north London she is almost certainly safe.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
I can see why the Cons are chasing the aspirational, but there is something else that needs to be looked, at and thats private rented sector. Have assured shorthold tenancies had their day?
I have no beef with the private rental sector, however reform of the existing rules does seem to be due. Landlords and tenants have to weave through a system that gives neither very much stability, with letting agents creaming off wherever possible.
For a landlord its difficult to evict a non paying tenant swiftly, and for a tenant a six month tenancy and then a rolling tenancy, at which point the landlord can evict you without any reason (though the process is quite protracted).
How about creating a new statutory class of tenancy that gives longer periods, however, the flip side is that non payment of rent, or breaking of tenancy agreement results in much swifter eviction. Security for the tenancy and reassurance for the landlord.
It could even be a condition of LHA, that housing benefit is only payable to tenancy on this type of tenancy.
A good tenant gets security, a non paying tenant gets evicted easier.
And letting agents get put against a wall and a bullet through their heads.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
We certainly do. I miss Avery and his contributions.
Avery was always good crack, his views on Russsia were certainly worth a read; shame he isnt about now to give us his thoughts on the Vladlands of Eastern Europe.
Mr. Urquhart, it's an indefensibly oppressive measure. Why should people without even televisions be forced to fund a television network?
The Telly Poll Tax is flawed in a number of ways, but if implemented it will just blast everybody and make up for those...fair it ain't, but BBC will fight tooth and nail for any other funding mechanism.
R5 was already pumping out the propaganda this afternoon that nobody, I state nobody, wants anything other than a small tweak to current funding arrangement, in order to make sure those watching iPlayer pay and the way to do that is Telly Poll Tax.
I am sure those without tellys going to love stumping up £140+, and I would suggest a massive proportion of those are very very poor.
Very few people in the UK are very very poor. However, the poorer you are the more likely you watch even more TV than normal. A progressive system would charge them more......
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong. Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.
Cutting down on your waffling drool, let's look at this nonsense.
Scotland exports around 200% of it's domestic consumption (see various threads here and Google to confirm). Wales and NI, I don't intend to research but given the economies, I suspect net exporter but it's not my concern. The United Kingdom imports £6bn of food every year (see UK Government Accounts).
So from the known facts, England is a net importer of at least £6bn probably much higher (because of Scotland, Wales and NI) It's going to be somewhere around £8bn that England MUST import to keep it's population fed.
Now, you might not thing that makes them reliant. I am absolutely certain it does. In an earlier thread someone posted the correlation of English imports and Irish exports and this is unsurprising to anyone who goes to supermarkets or McDonalds and see the "British and Irish" wording on food sourcing.
So despite being near the peak of international farming productivity (see World Bank) England is utterly dependent on importing food and predominantly sources this from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
I trust there will be much name calling of certain Traitorous Pig Dogs and perhaps a chart or two suggesting UKIP can't win there? She'll surely do rather better than Geoff thingy who was their candidate in the by-election!
Mr. Urquhart, it's an indefensibly oppressive measure. Why should people without even televisions be forced to fund a television network?
The Telly Poll Tax is flawed in a number of ways, but if implemented it will just blast everybody and make up for those...fair it ain't, but BBC will fight tooth and nail for any other funding mechanism.
R5 was already pumping out the propaganda this afternoon that nobody, I state nobody, wants anything other than a small tweak to current funding arrangement, in order to make sure those watching iPlayer pay and the way to do that is Telly Poll Tax.
I am sure those without tellys going to love stumping up £140+, and I would suggest a massive proportion of those are very very poor.
We are not very poor, but very careful about spending and so we only stream as per the rules and don't watch live telly. £140 would be a kick in the teeth. I accept that I watch some BBC programming but there must be a middle way.
"The ANL would never have stood up to muslim fascists. Never. Moreover if someone were a Mussolini fascist (the original fascist) and did not have a racist bone in their body, the ANL would have been all over them."
Complete rubbish. The ANL were about the only pressure group from the 70's that were prepared to face down the fascists. They could get numbers onto the street that no other organization could. Where do you get your information from? It's clear from your post that you know nothing about them.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
@MaxPB In this case it might be a win, but since the Tories on here would claim a live streaming of Cameron and Osborne having carnal relations with a goat would be a clear Tory win, I will reserve judgement for a while.
Because it is a subject where the Tories are basically bulletproof any shopped versions are just going to reinforce the message, like the one with Ed Balls in the Miley Cyrus position. If this poster goes viral it will be a win for the Tories because it will get their message of being strong on the economy to people who wouldn't normally see it and in a way that people are more receptive to than the original while also taking the piss out of Labour, reinforcing the general Tory message that Labour are a bunch of jokers.
It might seem like a lot from one poster but that is the power of social media. Idiots like Zoella have bought million pound houses on the back of it.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Huzzah.
She's a top egg. Hopefully she can push Mark Reckless into third place.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 secs7 seconds ago I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow
perhaps that's when he'll have the data up by mistake.... hoorar for that SNP night. I got £100 on somewhere I've never heard of but began with C and the odds were better than evens despite a circa 19% SNP lead.....
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Good luck to her! We need more PBers in Parliament!
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Best of luck to Mrs B
She was at the Birmingham event that you were at a couple of years ago.
@MaxPB There will be winners and losers for all the "party posters". But the press barons, ad execs, and politicians will not be in control of how it pans out.
Without a doubt, that's what makes it interesting to watch. There are so few pictures of Ed out there where he looks graceful that any Labour poster will be, err, vandalised accordingly.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Best of luck to Mrs B
She was at the Birmingham event that you were at a couple of years ago.
Yes I remember her, and her posts are always worth a read as she's not afraid to say what she thinks. Good candidate.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.
The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.
The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
When interest rates finally return to historical norms of 3-5%, there is going to be a lot of people in big big trouble.
For UKIP it is not fair enough, it';s a vanity project for Nige and if Rabid Kippers like Tyndall with his incessant ramblings against fact and logic can't stand Farage, it's no wonder Peak Kipper was 6 months ago.
You really need to take your head out of your nether orifice because the only thing you seem to be able to produce is excrement combined with an extremely fetid flatulence......
Wouldn't the capital insertion have a detrimental effect on the flatulent flow?
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 secs7 seconds ago I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow
perhaps that's when he'll have the data up by mistake.... hoorar for that SNP night. I got £100 on somewhere I've never heard of but began with C and the odds were better than evens despite a circa 19% SNP lead.....
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath may be the bet. If this set includes Scotland.
I suspect this batch won't have any Scottish seats and he'll release those as another Scottish set.
@MP_SE Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way. Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 secs7 seconds ago I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow
perhaps that's when he'll have the data up by mistake.... hoorar for that SNP night. I got £100 on somewhere I've never heard of but began with C and the odds were better than evens despite a circa 19% SNP lead.....
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintollich FILL YER BOOTS
@MP_SE Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way. Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.
I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
@MP_SE Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way. Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.
I'm never sure if he keeps property prices high because a drop would royally screw banks balance sheets or because he lacks the imagination to do anything different.
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.
The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
Just heard that PB regular @MrsB, Pru Bray, is the LD candidate in Rochester & Strood. Very smart woman who has attended PB events but I fear that this venture is a lost cause.
Good luck to her! We need more PBers in Parliament!
Excellent news. Goodbye Mr Pig-dog; Rochester and Strood nailed on LD gain!
@Roger Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from. We need Avery and a yellow box!
It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.
The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 secs7 seconds ago I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow
perhaps that's when he'll have the data up by mistake.... hoorar for that SNP night. I got £100 on somewhere I've never heard of but began with C and the odds were better than evens despite a circa 19% SNP lead.....
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintollich FILL YER BOOTS
Haven't all boots been filled on this? It's like one of the most secure SNP seats in Scotland.
Comments
1. The LibDems held both Orkney and Shetland in the Scottish parliament election, despite being wiped out everywhere else
2. The 'yes' for independence was simply not that high in O&S - I think it was c. 35-38%, which means Carmicheal has a large number of unionist voters he can borrow from
The versions of the new poster will get more coverage than the original.
Labour isn't twerking
Let's take a more extreme example. Adam Johnson. Do you think there is a single person in public life who would put their head above the parapet and point out that this is (possibly) not the crime that public opinion deems it to be? There is nothing in that situation where anyone can consider facts or the details of the case and question anything other than "this sick fucking paedo needs strung up" and get any response other than "you're a paedo too, lynch him".
The same applies to challenging anyone who can pull a race card or a gender card or any other interest group of "who can scream the loudest" in the court of public opinion. There is a reason why even UKIP can't stand up for a PPC that thinks it might have been a good idea of Mohammed Emwazi had killed himself when he was a depressed student.
Nothing half baked about the policy. It basically removes the need for developers to contribute to the increased demand on local amenities, and shoves the bill onto the existing residents.
It is a fully formed and wrapped Con con trick that no one will be smart enough to notice.
Today was a case in point.
An email from Nigel Farage entitled "Did you see my speech this weekend?"
The body of the email was okay with links to the various policy speeches but the whole thing was dominated by a big picture of Farage and a 'click here to watch my speech' message.
It just comes over as needy and self serving. What people really should be interested in are the policies - and there were plenty of speeches explaining them - but instead the email just perpetuates that cult of personality which is so distasteful in politics and is a legitimate criticism of UKIP in particular.
I have been getting similar emails from the Tories "I had to email you about this Richard" says Cameron; "Your friends need to see this Richard" says Priti Patel.
Not as bad as the Farage email but still patronising and annoying.
I am sure Labour and the Lib Dems are doing the same thing. They treat the electorate like children and probably drive away more support than they attract.
"The ANL would never have stood up to muslim fascists. Never. Moreover if someone were a Mussolini fascist (the original fascist) and did not have a racist bone in their body, the ANL would have been all over them."
Complete rubbish. The ANL were about the only pressure group from the 70's that were prepared to face down the fascists. They could get numbers onto the street that no other organization could. Where do you get your information from? It's clear from your post that you know nothing about them.
As well as the most trusted on the economy of course.
I pointed this out last night, social media spoofs will always beat the Ad men for impact.
Poor CR classified ginger rodents.
If the poll is viable, it would be to the Tories advantage to have him all over the media.
If he isn't, then it would be reasonable to assume it was a pile of utter horse manure.
You're quite right. The theme is that we, the electorate, aren't up to it. This very theme comes from all those idiots that cold-call and are thrown into disarray when you answer.
I get emails from my bank (NatWest) generally proposing how fun it might be to get a free hat or some other crap. I don't want fun from my bank - I want banking. I've no idea of how they deliver fun, but I can assure you that they have no concept of banking worth delivering.
Two-thirds of the constituency is pro-union. The SNP is unlikely to overcome this.
I think the idea that this election is going to be won and lost on social media and the internet is more than somewhat oversold.
However, he is the party leader and it is for him to set the tone for the parties members and supporters in his set speeches. Now not everyone would have been able to watch him on Friday. So sending his speech video out is fair enough in my book.
Whether we like it or not in the post Obama age (especially with two of his advisers involved in the election) the cult of personality is going to pervade the campaign using every medium of communication they can think of.
There again in politics whether it be Churchill, Thatcher or Blair personality counts in the communications age.
There is a lot of failure to get the new paradigm amongst the establishment. "Funded by UK Government" is a good example of this, it was begging for parody and got what it asked for.
People who are comfortable and secure don't need the crutch of a label.
Right: I think I've insulted 99.3% of pb.com posters now. I can get back to trying to write a python to javascript "compiler"...
In this case it might be a win, but since the Tories on here would claim a live streaming of Cameron and Osborne having carnal relations with a goat would be a clear Tory win, I will reserve judgement for a while.
I am a great fan of Osborne who I think has done an incredible job in terrible circumstances but I can well recognise that there are several things about him that are going to wind up more than the usual suspects intensely.
In fairness I have always thought he recognised this himself which is why he backed DC.
"I don't recall a single ANL march against a pro-Sharia mosque or cleric."
It folded as an organization long before anyone had heard of Sharia. After Blair Peach and Thatcher social consciences went out the window
The Star, Sheffield @SheffieldStar 6m6 minutes ago
41 Child Sex Complaints - here is the front page of The Star in Doncaster tomorrow:
The Germans are more interested in making money than military activity. They don't even let their troops go out on patrol at night.
Social media is a lot more persuasive and ubiquitous than most people realise.
Very few now don't plug into it in some form or another, even the "grey voters" tend to have access, if only for contact with the grandchildren.
"Nothing half baked about the policy. It basically removes the need for developers to contribute to the increased demand on local amenities, and shoves the bill onto the existing residents."
I just heard snippets. Is it the long lost vote winner? It didn't seem to grab anyone's attention.
Edit and no ****** dogs either!
This site is now entering its boring stage as everyone goes on about polls and methodologies and odds and betting strategies and models.
I used to think "two lost souls swimming in a fishbowl" was the worst metaphor ever.
PS: relevant.
Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
We need Avery and a yellow box!
1. I am not a rabid kipper as anyone on here from whatever party will tell you.
2. Everything I have said on here regarding the EU and our relationship with it has been factually correct and consistent. It is you who have tried - and failed - to find inconsistencies in my postings. This appears to be because you are too thick to understand basic English.
3. It is not that I 'can't stand Farage'. I simply think he is the wrong person to lead UKIP. His ego is too big and he has driven out many very committed and knowledgeable Eurosceptics because - it appears - he thought they were a threat to his position.
4. It is you who have failed to provide facts:
Your claims about the £15 billion cost of EFTA membership - wrong.
Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong.
Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.
As I said yesterday, every single posting you have made regarding the UK's relationship with the EU has been factually incorrect. It is no wonder with a mind like that you find it unbelievable that anyone else might actually be telling the truth.
Return to your rock and crawl under it Dair. It is all that you are good for.
Only the yellow boxes have gone, his shade abideth.
(as funny as that seems now)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Death_of_Blair_Peach
If not, apologies.
"I remember Blair and Thatcher, Roger, but who was this Peach guy?"
You remember....let me guess you were eleven going on sixteen Arthur Scargill was just a voodoo doll on Alderman Roberts fireplace....you had a picture of Keith Joseph on your wall and another of Ted Heath covered in dart holes
For those of you into modern history, I've just started a biography by Marc Morris of Edward I. Only read the first chapter, but the writing style's very easy to read.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/ed-miliband/11444049/Ed-Miliband-only-fourth-most-influential-person-in-Doncaster-local-newspaper-concludes.html
I bet it is...forcing another 500,000 to stump up £140 a year.
There's a real danger that the average turnip in your garden has less influence politically than she does. I think we can all agree that this is abhorrent.
I've nothing against Mrs Buck personally, I'm merely conveying my thoughts upon reading what she's written, and reflecting on her record.
But its spending is still just about half of UK France and Germany combined The question is can it afford it? The FT says the falling oil price, sanctions and recession are slowing down Putin's spending drive.
There may be a difference between Kremlin propaganda and what's actually happening.
The name of the hamster in "The Young Ones"?
It might seem like a lot from one poster but that is the power of social media. Idiots like Zoella have bought million pound houses on the back of it.
Ozzie should announce that the Beeb will be gifted to "Rupert" in lieu of a knighthood.
That should get the votes flooding in.
"Auberon Waugh setting up the Blair Peach Joke Club. Can't remember any of the actual jokes though."
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKu4DaPi-qY
There will be winners and losers for all the "party posters".
But the press barons, ad execs, and politicians will not be in control of how it pans out.
R5 was already pumping out the propaganda this afternoon that nobody, I state nobody, wants anything other than a small tweak to current funding arrangement, in order to make sure those watching iPlayer pay and the way to do that is Telly Poll Tax.
I am sure those without tellys going to love stumping up £140+, and I would suggest a massive proportion of those are very very poor.
I have no beef with the private rental sector, however reform of the existing rules does seem to be due. Landlords and tenants have to weave through a system that gives neither very much stability, with letting agents creaming off wherever possible.
For a landlord its difficult to evict a non paying tenant swiftly, and for a tenant a six month tenancy and then a rolling tenancy, at which point the landlord can evict you without any reason (though the process is quite protracted).
How about creating a new statutory class of tenancy that gives longer periods, however, the flip side is that non payment of rent, or breaking of tenancy agreement results in much swifter eviction. Security for the tenancy and reassurance for the landlord.
It could even be a condition of LHA, that housing benefit is only payable to tenancy on this type of tenancy.
A good tenant gets security, a non paying tenant gets evicted easier.
And letting agents get put against a wall and a bullet through their heads.
Scotland exports around 200% of it's domestic consumption (see various threads here and Google to confirm). Wales and NI, I don't intend to research but given the economies, I suspect net exporter but it's not my concern. The United Kingdom imports £6bn of food every year (see UK Government Accounts).
So from the known facts, England is a net importer of at least £6bn probably much higher (because of Scotland, Wales and NI) It's going to be somewhere around £8bn that England MUST import to keep it's population fed.
Now, you might not thing that makes them reliant. I am absolutely certain it does. In an earlier thread someone posted the correlation of English imports and Irish exports and this is unsurprising to anyone who goes to supermarkets or McDonalds and see the "British and Irish" wording on food sourcing.
So despite being near the peak of international farming productivity (see World Bank) England is utterly dependent on importing food and predominantly sources this from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.
From Private Eye. http://www.chrisbeetles.com/gallery/cartoon/myself-i-dont-think-i-shall-ever-forget-serene-face-blair-peach-his-open-coffin-domi
http://www.chrisbeetles.com/gallery/cartoon/i-have-decided-institute-blair-peach-joke-prize-and-medal.html
She's a top egg. Hopefully she can push Mark Reckless into third place.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_Bgu9wXEAAEadY.jpg:large
and
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/B_BhOvjWwAM-Prq.jpg:large
The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
I suspect this batch won't have any Scottish seats and he'll release those as another Scottish set.
Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.