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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The great methodology divide: All the CON leads are from ph

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  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    I think it is a bit of both. He came to power, and both he and Dave fully expected the "normal" recovery from a recession, without realizing it wasn't a "normal" one.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·7 secs7 seconds ago
    I shall be releasing another batch of marginal seats polling at the @ConHome conference at around 5pm tomorrow

    https://twitter.com/LordAshcroft/status/572481167041159168
    perhaps that's when he'll have the data up by mistake.... hoorar for that SNP night. I got £100 on somewhere I've never heard of but began with C and the odds were better than evens despite a circa 19% SNP lead.....

    Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintollich FILL YER BOOTS
    Haven't all boots been filled on this? It's like one of the most secure SNP seats in Scotland.
    Yes, mine are
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Smarmeron said:

    @MP_SE
    Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
    Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.

    I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
    Jim Murphy will add 1000 to any number, from any party, at any time.
  • TheWatcherTheWatcher Posts: 5,262

    Smarmeron said:

    @MP_SE
    Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
    Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.

    I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
    It's all meaningless, as there's currently a shortage of bricks and cement. Long lead times on both according to my friendly builder, particularly in the South East where many of the manufacturing plants have been mothballed or shut down
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited March 2015
    A few moves on that market SPIN put up earlier, mostly the way I would have expected, but not "Lab LD and SNP" which I would say is a good value buy at 26

    You are getting Shadsys most likely outcome (Lab minority) and probably the only outcome that genuinely has a chance of MU 100
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514

    Smarmeron said:

    @MP_SE
    Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
    Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.

    I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
    It's all meaningless, as there's currently a shortage of bricks and cement. Long lead times on both according to my friendly builder, particularly in the South East where many of the manufacturing plants have been mothballed or shut down
    It;s been like that for the last year. Then chuck in skilled labour shortages.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
    We need Avery and a yellow box!

    It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.

    The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
    UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
    You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
    Yes. Because there is a lack of entry to the market and very difficult step ups. There is no-one with a million pound house in Kent who did not earn that million points from property price inflation. It infests the entire market. The first step is very hard. The next step is even harder. And so on.

    But this doesn't matter until there is a NEED to sell. Gen X retirement, with a lack of Final Salary Schemes will enforce this, there will be hundreds of thousands desperate to sell to move to cheaper areas so they can live off the Equity. This is inevitable in the UK.

    There aren't enough immigrants and renters on £40k a year to afford getting onto the property ladder without a price crash. Price will adjust to incomes. And incomes are not very good.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    Tell me it isn't so? The infallible market forces would have spotted the niche and invested heavily....surely?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Smarmeron said:

    @MP_SE
    Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
    Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.

    I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
    It's all meaningless, as there's currently a shortage of bricks and cement. Long lead times on both according to my friendly builder, particularly in the South East where many of the manufacturing plants have been mothballed or shut down
    When 400k per year are retiring without Final Salary Schemes and needing to liquidate their equity, it will be a buyers market and prices will drop until mortgages allow the purchase.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
    We need Avery and a yellow box!

    It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.

    The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
    UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
    You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
    Yes. Because there is a lack of entry to the market and very difficult step ups. There is no-one with a million pound house in Kent who did not earn that million points from property price inflation. It infests the entire market. The first step is very hard. The next step is even harder. And so on.

    But this doesn't matter until there is a NEED to sell. Gen X retirement, with a lack of Final Salary Schemes will enforce this, there will be hundreds of thousands desperate to sell to move to cheaper areas so they can live off the Equity. This is inevitable in the UK.

    There aren't enough immigrants and renters on £40k a year to afford getting onto the property ladder without a price crash. Price will adjust to incomes. And incomes are not very good.
    Property guys will buy the houses and rent them, probably 6 tenants to a room in the SE. There won't be an easing on house prices until more are built.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    Tell me it isn't so? The infallible market forces would have spotted the niche and invested heavily....surely?

    The issue goes back to 2009-11 when construction fell off a cliff and a big chunk of supply capacity was lost. The nation hasn't opted to put that capacity back, government as much as the private sector.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    edited March 2015
    One thing that didn't seem to get mentioned with Ed uni fees wheeze last week. If pensions become even less attractive to those with dosh, could they not go looking to expand their buy to let empires? That was the criticism of letting people cash in pension pots, why wouldn't it be the case if you can't get the tax relief on adding to it?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    You may have a point, but the coalition ripped the arse out of the sector, so surely they had a plan?
    (nearly made a massive typo, and offered you a pint, I may need a lie down to recover from the shock)
  • MTimTMTimT Posts: 7,034
    Some interesting articles on some of the presumed candidates in next year's US presidential primaries. The Examiner looks at Walker vs the GOP Establishment, and concludes as have many that Walker has shot to the front of the pack before he was ready. But, in a way, they are describing Walker as being to the GOP what Major was to the Tories - someone who could connect with and have credibility with the middle class and blue collar workers.

    http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/scott-walker-is-headed-for-trouble-with-the-gop-establishment/article/2560898?

    The second article is from the Huff Post, generally democratic-friendly, on Hillary. It addresses the received wisdom that Hillary has a lock on both the nomination and the election, concluding that it will be a war of attrition and the election is wide open, particularly if a politician-weary electorate doesn't turn out in the usual droves. On the nomination, the author notes, as have I on several occasions, that "Hillary Clinton ... looks careworn, like maybe she'd just rather not do this."

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/robert-kuttner/is-hillary-a-sure-thing-in-2016_b_6780726.html?ncid=edlinkushpmg00000090
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
    We need Avery and a yellow box!

    It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.

    The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
    UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
    You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
    Yes. Because there is a lack of entry to the market and very difficult step ups. There is no-one with a million pound house in Kent who did not earn that million points from property price inflation. It infests the entire market. The first step is very hard. The next step is even harder. And so on.

    But this doesn't matter until there is a NEED to sell. Gen X retirement, with a lack of Final Salary Schemes will enforce this, there will be hundreds of thousands desperate to sell to move to cheaper areas so they can live off the Equity. This is inevitable in the UK.

    There aren't enough immigrants and renters on £40k a year to afford getting onto the property ladder without a price crash. Price will adjust to incomes. And incomes are not very good.
    Property guys will buy the houses and rent them, probably 6 tenants to a room in the SE. There won't be an easing on house prices until more are built.
    So when 400k a year are desperate to liquidate their property it will somehow be filled with 2.4m a year in multi-occupancy lets? Is Nige aware of this huge increase in immigration?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    You may have a point, but the coalition ripped the arse out of the sector, so surely they had a plan?
    (nearly made a massive typo, and offered you a pint, I may need a lie down to recover from the shock)

    There was no plan in 2010 , Labour didn't have one.

    On the other hand 3 years in I will give the Coalition full credit for having a national infrastructure programme. It might not be hugely ambitious but at least there is one.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
    We need Avery and a yellow box!

    It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were suggesting UK housing is 30% overvalued and that was nearly two years ago.

    The BOE is terrified of putting interest rates up. They are attempting to prop up way too many zombie businesses and over indebted households. Encouraging the young to buy into housing now is beyond reckless. Interest rates can only go one way and that is up. The electorate will not be so forgiving when that happens.
    UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
    You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
    Yes. Because there is a lack of entry to the market and very difficult step ups. There is no-one with a million pound house in Kent who did not earn that million points from property price inflation. It infests the entire market. The first step is very hard. The next step is even harder. And so on.

    But this doesn't matter until there is a NEED to sell. Gen X retirement, with a lack of Final Salary Schemes will enforce this, there will be hundreds of thousands desperate to sell to move to cheaper areas so they can live off the Equity. This is inevitable in the UK.

    There aren't enough immigrants and renters on £40k a year to afford getting onto the property ladder without a price crash. Price will adjust to incomes. And incomes are not very good.
    Property guys will buy the houses and rent them, probably 6 tenants to a room in the SE. There won't be an easing on house prices until more are built.
    So when 400k a year are desperate to liquidate their property it will somehow be filled with 2.4m a year in multi-occupancy lets? Is Nige aware of this huge increase in immigration?
    I'm sure he read last weeks papers.

    But you're looking at it the wrong way. Property guys keep breaking up large properties so your £400k house may end up as 4 £100k pokey flats. UK housing stock quality has been deteriorating over time.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    Telegraph in Scotland has something about Unionists being urged to vote against SNP - can't read the details on Twitter. Not sure who is behind this.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    I think you might be gilding the lilly a bit by calling it a "plan".
    But the simple facts are that the market has the sole objective of maximising profit, And as long as there is a housing crisis, the laws of supply and demand will ensure a handsome return.
    A point I continually labour on here,. The market has its uses, but it is not a panacea.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited March 2015
    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?
  • Soaraway crossover!

    Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn·19s19 seconds ago
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Dair said:


    Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong.
    Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.

    Cutting down on your waffling drool, let's look at this nonsense.

    Scotland exports around 200% of it's domestic consumption (see various threads here and Google to confirm). Wales and NI, I don't intend to research but given the economies, I suspect net exporter but it's not my concern. The United Kingdom imports £6bn of food every year (see UK Government Accounts).

    So from the known facts, England is a net importer of at least £6bn probably much higher (because of Scotland, Wales and NI) It's going to be somewhere around £8bn that England MUST import to keep it's population fed.

    Now, you might not thing that makes them reliant. I am absolutely certain it does. In an earlier thread someone posted the correlation of English imports and Irish exports and this is unsurprising to anyone who goes to supermarkets or McDonalds and see the "British and Irish" wording on food sourcing.

    So despite being near the peak of international farming productivity (see World Bank) England is utterly dependent on importing food and predominantly sources this from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.
    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    3 point Tory lead on 2 polls on the same day. Crossover now happening?
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    Too slow yourself! ;-)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph in Scotland has something about Unionists being urged to vote against SNP - can't read the details on Twitter. Not sure who is behind this.

    Labour members are encouraging people to vote Tory. It;s making things worse for them
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    I am the Harry Kane to your John Terry
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    Too slow yourself! ;-)
    My Basil reference cost me.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    isam said:

    A few moves on that market SPIN put up earlier, mostly the way I would have expected, but not "Lab LD and SNP" which I would say is a good value buy at 26

    You are getting Shadsys most likely outcome (Lab minority) and probably the only outcome that genuinely has a chance of MU 100

    More I think about it, this is a great bet

    You are effectively laying the Conservatives to get a majority or go it alone

    You lose
    26 points on a Con Maj
    26 points on a Con Min
    1pt on a Con LD Coalition
    1pt on a Lab Maj
    1pt on a Lab Min

    You Win
    24pts on a Lab LD Coalition
    24pts on a Lab SNP Coalition
    74pts on a Lab LD SNP Coalition

  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    Tory oo 35% just 1% below their 2010 score and UKIP on 15%. They just need a few % from UKIP to win based on this poll
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    I am the Harry Kane to your John Terry
    Gee thanks.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    All over for Ed. The string of "bad news" for the Tories has ended and the latent longing for Conservative Majority government is beginning to burst all over the cross-tabs.
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    Crossover and Labour isn't Twerking with its wrecking ball only launched today
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.

    You have to remember when reading posts from Nats that the "vast bulk" of Scots voted Yes...
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    I think you might be gilding the lilly a bit by calling it a "plan".
    But the simple facts are that the market has the sole objective of maximising profit, And as long as there is a housing crisis, the laws of supply and demand will ensure a handsome return.
    A point I continually labour on here,. The market has its uses, but it is not a panacea.

    Compared to what was there previously it's the whole genome of humanity.

    As for your comment the market on supply and demand in housing in the Uk is mostly influenced by land availability and price. This is a joint stitch up between the govt which makes it hard to get land and private sellers who want their asset to inflate. The government is as culpable as the private sector on this. Nul points all round.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    Kleenex shares soar on tomorrows market?
    :)
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    I am the Harry Kane to your John Terry
    Gee thanks.
    I'm just remembering how comforting you were when Liverpool blew a 3 goal lead at Crystal Palace.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    Scott_P said:

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.

    You have to remember when reading posts from Nats that the "vast bulk" of Scots voted Yes...
    LOL. I forgot that. In their eyes 45% is a huge majority.
  • It does 'feel' like the blues are edging up finally to nearer 35% and reds in the 31-32%....

    Tight but the glacial drift is encouraging... remind me what ICM showed too?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    isam said:

    isam said:

    A few moves on that market SPIN put up earlier, mostly the way I would have expected, but not "Lab LD and SNP" which I would say is a good value buy at 26

    You are getting Shadsys most likely outcome (Lab minority) and probably the only outcome that genuinely has a chance of MU 100

    More I think about it, this is a great bet

    You are effectively laying the Conservatives to get a majority or go it alone

    You lose
    26 points on a Con Maj
    26 points on a Con Min
    1pt on a Con LD Coalition
    1pt on a Lab Maj
    1pt on a Lab Min

    You Win
    24pts on a Lab LD Coalition
    24pts on a Lab SNP Coalition
    74pts on a Lab LD SNP Coalition

    Looks a horrible set of outcomes from here. But then I'm not expecting any coalitions whatever.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Squirrel down....I repeat squirrel down...

    http://www.moosedenied.com/images/2008-07/squirrel.jpg
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Dair said:

    dr_spyn said:

    Telegraph in Scotland has something about Unionists being urged to vote against SNP - can't read the details on Twitter. Not sure who is behind this.

    Labour members are encouraging people to vote Tory. It;s making things worse for them
    I do hope so. I have a couple of Scottish Tory gains in my book!
  • It does 'feel' like the blues are edging up finally to nearer 35% and reds in the 31-32%....

    Tight but the glacial drift is encouraging... remind me what ICM showed too?

    Con 36, Lab 32
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    Dair said:


    Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong.
    Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.

    Cutting down on your waffling drool, let's look at this nonsense.

    Scotland exports around 200% of it's domestic consumption (see various threads here and Google to confirm). Wales and NI, I don't intend to research but given the economies, I suspect net exporter but it's not my concern. The United Kingdom imports £6bn of food every year (see UK Government Accounts).

    So from the known facts, England is a net importer of at least £6bn probably much higher (because of Scotland, Wales and NI) It's going to be somewhere around £8bn that England MUST import to keep it's population fed.

    Now, you might not thing that makes them reliant. I am absolutely certain it does. In an earlier thread someone posted the correlation of English imports and Irish exports and this is unsurprising to anyone who goes to supermarkets or McDonalds and see the "British and Irish" wording on food sourcing.

    So despite being near the peak of international farming productivity (see World Bank) England is utterly dependent on importing food and predominantly sources this from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.
    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.
    He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky facts.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Hold the tissues, the Yougov is out early.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,514
    Seems like chucking the kitchen sink of NHS, HSBC and 2nd jobs hasn't done Ed any good...not to say there isn't more muck that will fly.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,300
    edited March 2015
    Double chinned millionaire Tory unleashes another benefits raid on Scotland's deprived families...wonderful headline from Daily Record on IDS.

    Aren't Tories supposed to be chinless baby eaters?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    saddened said:

    Dair said:


    Your claims about how much England relies upon Scotland and Ireland for food - outlandishly wrong.
    Your claims about the cost of food imports post Brexit - wrong.

    Cutting down on your waffling drool, let's look at this nonsense.

    Scotland exports around 200% of it's domestic consumption (see various threads here and Google to confirm). Wales and NI, I don't intend to research but given the economies, I suspect net exporter but it's not my concern. The United Kingdom imports £6bn of food every year (see UK Government Accounts).

    So from the known facts, England is a net importer of at least £6bn probably much higher (because of Scotland, Wales and NI) It's going to be somewhere around £8bn that England MUST import to keep it's population fed.

    Now, you might not thing that makes them reliant. I am absolutely certain it does. In an earlier thread someone posted the correlation of English imports and Irish exports and this is unsurprising to anyone who goes to supermarkets or McDonalds and see the "British and Irish" wording on food sourcing.

    So despite being near the peak of international farming productivity (see World Bank) England is utterly dependent on importing food and predominantly sources this from Scotland, Ireland and Wales.
    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.
    He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky facts.
    RT pwned him there all right .

    True comrades like Dair, Che, Hugo and Rev Stu only deal in stats on tractors and turnips mind you.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Seems like chucking the kitchen sink of NHS, HSBC and 2nd jobs hasn't done Ed any good...not to say there isn't more muck that will fly.

    not to mention scaring people away with scrapping of pension relief to double the uni fees from when labour was in power!!
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    Roger said:

    Izzy

    "I remember Blair and Thatcher, Roger, but who was this Peach guy?"

    You remember....let me guess you were eleven going on sixteen Arthur Scargill was just a voodoo doll on Alderman Roberts fireplace....you had a picture of Keith Joseph on your wall and another of Ted Heath covered in dart holes

    Have we met?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064

    Smarmeron said:

    @MP_SE
    Housing is overvalued, and policy has been geared to keeping it that way.
    Ozzie gets proclaimed as a genius by many on here...but if you look closely at his economics, they vary little from the policies of Brown. Asset inflation and domestic consumption.

    I await a party who says stop....this is madness....instead if Tories say 100,000 for a scheme, Labour says 200,000 and Lib Dem's says 300,000.
    It's all meaningless, as there's currently a shortage of bricks and cement. Long lead times on both according to my friendly builder, particularly in the South East where many of the manufacturing plants have been mothballed or shut down
    It;s been like that for the last year. Then chuck in skilled labour shortages.
    A mate of mine who is an electrician was saying that they have a massive backlog of houses due to a shortage of cement. The brick shortage has got so bad that the company he works for has resorted to importing them from China but they also have no cement. Worse still cement manufacturing is basically dead because of carbon dioxide emissions during the production of cement.

    It is a complete and utter joke. The demand for new housing is there but the basic raw materials are all in short supply. Even the labour shortage has begun to ease now that so many young people have done apprenticeships in the trades but builders are importing almost all of the basic building materials from timber to bricks and mortar.
  • GeoffM said:

    Roger said:

    Izzy

    "I remember Blair and Thatcher, Roger, but who was this Peach guy?"

    You remember....let me guess you were eleven going on sixteen Arthur Scargill was just a voodoo doll on Alderman Roberts fireplace....you had a picture of Keith Joseph on your wall and another of Ted Heath covered in dart holes

    Have we met?
    I'm disappointed in you Geoff.

    Ted Heath is the greatest Tory PM in history, he took us into the EU Middlesbrough out of Yorkshire.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411
    Do yougovs only get released early when the Tories are in the lead :) ?
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Pulpstar said:

    Do yougovs only get released early when the Tories are in the lead :) ?

    Obviously, PB Hodges are late to react.
  • It does 'feel' like the blues are edging up finally to nearer 35% and reds in the 31-32%....

    Tight but the glacial drift is encouraging... remind me what ICM showed too?

    Con 36, Lab 32
    Where ICM leads...
  • Hengists_GiftHengists_Gift Posts: 628
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:

    Dair said:

    MP_SE said:

    Smarmeron said:

    @Roger
    Sounds like a vote winner? 20% discount on the value of a new home paid for by the magic money tree. As long as no one points out where the magic money actually comes from.
    We need Avery and a yellow box!

    It won't be a vote winner if the homes are 20% overvalued to begin with. The OECD were
    UK property'd overvalue is meaningless while the Boomers are the retirees. Once Gen X replaces the Boomers as the retirees without Final Salary pensions and reliant on their property for day to day living, the housing bubble will finally burst. And by burst we're talking a 60% drop in house prices, just to pay for Gen X retirement.
    You think with 300,000 people coming in to the country each year and only 100,000 houses being built, prices are going to fall off a cliff ?
    Yes. Because there is a lack of entry to the market and very difficult step ups. There is no-one with a million pound house in Kent who did not earn that million points from property price inflation. It infests the entire market. The first step is very hard. The next step is even harder. And so on.

    But this doesn't matter until there is a NEED to sell. Gen X retirement, with a lack of Final Salary Schemes will enforce this, there will be hundreds of thousands desperate to sell to move to cheaper areas so they can live off the Equity. This is inevitable in the UK.

    There aren't enough immigrants and renters on £40k a year to afford getting onto the property ladder without a price crash. Price will adjust to incomes. And incomes are not very good.
    1) Given its only in recent years that a large number of final salary pensions schemes are closing its quite likely that a large number of Gen Xrs (those aged between 35 and 50) will already be enroled in them. Closing FSPS's usually means they will get no new members but all those who previously have qualified for them keep their benefits in full.

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-1535150/Final-salary-pensions-The-facts.html

    2) Any reduction will be offset by the slowing of release of properties by Boomers living longer

    3) In reality the generation that will be retiring to precipitate the wholesale sell off of properties that you envisage would more likely be Generation Y (those 35 and under) and that's only if they do not compensate for the lack of Final Salary pensions by investing more in whatever pensions they do take out.

    I really don't see your scenario damaging the housing market for at least 40 years if at all
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited March 2015
    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gov? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Alanbrooke
    This might come as a shock to many on here, but if anyone actually has a credible plan for our economy that improves on "suck it and see" they will get my vote. Even if they were the Earl of Sutherland with the England rugby crest tattooed on his nether regions.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    As I said last week, it does appear, on Anthony's graph, that crossover may have occurred with YouGov;

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/yougov-voting-intention

    This week should clarify one way or another.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gove? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.

    It actually tells you in the tweet giving you todays poll.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gov? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.

    January 2012 according to the Sun. Ed needs a pasty tax.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    This might come as a shock to many on here, but if anyone actually has a credible plan for our economy that improves on "suck it and see" they will get my vote. Even if they were the Earl of Sutherland with the England rugby crest tattooed on his nether regions.

    Smarmy./ its the least worst alternative.. and I'll give you a clue.. Ed isn't the man to lead us out of our economic woes.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108


    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.

    I have no inclination to go read up on how Ireland's £6.5bn of food exports work out towards the UKs £6bn of food imports. I'll stick to Scotland.

    Scotland has 8.3% of the UK population. So exports : -

    45% more than it consumes in cereals.
    20% more than it consumes in pork.
    8% more than it consumes in dairy.
    141% more than it consumes in lamb.
    274% more than it consumes in beef.
    Imports some fruit and veg.

    I would be pretty certain that beef is by far the most productive and best cash generator in farming. I've also made no account of the English "joke" that Scots don't eat fruit or veg.

    Overall, I'm pretty confident of Scotland's produce. I'd love it to be as strong as Irelands Kerry Food Groups and Origin Green but that's the sort of thing an independent nation can go for. Instead of the UK starving Scotland of CAP funds.

  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gov? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I got the general direction of traffic correct with The Good Lord and Populus.

    YouGov is a surprise though.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118

    isam said:

    isam said:

    A few moves on that market SPIN put up earlier, mostly the way I would have expected, but not "Lab LD and SNP" which I would say is a good value buy at 26

    You are getting Shadsys most likely outcome (Lab minority) and probably the only outcome that genuinely has a chance of MU 100

    More I think about it, this is a great bet

    You are effectively laying the Conservatives to get a majority or go it alone

    You lose
    26 points on a Con Maj
    26 points on a Con Min
    1pt on a Con LD Coalition
    1pt on a Lab Maj
    1pt on a Lab Min

    You Win
    24pts on a Lab LD Coalition
    24pts on a Lab SNP Coalition
    74pts on a Lab LD SNP Coalition

    Looks a horrible set of outcomes from here. But then I'm not expecting any coalitions whatever.
    Off current Oddschecker bold types its 2.64pts of value
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gove? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.

    It actually tells you in the tweet giving you todays poll.
    Thanks I was too busy being amazed at the actual figs.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,064
    Dair said:


    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.

    I have no inclination to go read up on how Ireland's £6.5bn of food exports work out towards the UKs £6bn of food imports. I'll stick to Scotland.

    Scotland has 8.3% of the UK population. So exports : -

    45% more than it consumes in cereals.
    20% more than it consumes in pork.
    8% more than it consumes in dairy.
    141% more than it consumes in lamb.
    274% more than it consumes in beef.
    Imports some fruit and veg.

    I would be pretty certain that beef is by far the most productive and best cash generator in farming. I've also made no account of the English "joke" that Scots don't eat fruit or veg.

    Overall, I'm pretty confident of Scotland's produce. I'd love it to be as strong as Irelands Kerry Food Groups and Origin Green but that's the sort of thing an independent nation can go for. Instead of the UK starving Scotland of CAP funds.

    Scotland has a higher calorie intake per capita than England and Wales.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gove? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.

    It actually tells you in the tweet giving you todays poll.
    Thanks I was too busy being amazed at the actual figs.
    Always here to help.
  • Too slow TSE... Monday polls are the new gold standard day. Ignore Friday ones!

    I am the Harry Kane to your John Terry
    Gee thanks.
    I'm just remembering how comforting you were when Liverpool blew a 3 goal lead at Crystal Palace.
    Golden Rule:

    Any Spurs fan taking the mick out of any other team's fleeting failings shall be entirely without blame or comeback for they spend their entire life in varying spasms torn between pain and 'this time it'll be different hope' - for a spurs fan is paying for their sins from an earlier life..
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Should have stuck to strawberries Dair - you would have found a stat there to wow the board.

    Instead you got raspberries ....
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    saddened said:



    He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky facts.

    The fact that Scotland is 8.3% of the UK Population?

    Here's his numbers again

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,688
    edited March 2015
    Dair said:


    Sad that you try and squirm out of this.

    Once again here is your exact quote.

    "at the moment the vast bulk of England's food is produced in Ireland and Scotland."

    And the actual numbers

    Scotland produces

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.

    Ireland is even worse - accounting for a heady 2.9% of total UK food supply in 2012.

    So much for 'the vast bulk'

    These are the real figures not your plucked out of the air generalisations that you hope no one will bother to check. In short you are a liar.

    I have no inclination to go read up on how Ireland's £6.5bn of food exports work out towards the UKs £6bn of food imports. I'll stick to Scotland.

    Scotland has 8.3% of the UK population. So exports : -

    45% more than it consumes in cereals.
    20% more than it consumes in pork.
    8% more than it consumes in dairy.
    141% more than it consumes in lamb.
    274% more than it consumes in beef.
    Imports some fruit and veg.

    I would be pretty certain that beef is by far the most productive and best cash generator in farming. I've also made no account of the English "joke" that Scots don't eat fruit or veg.

    Overall, I'm pretty confident of Scotland's produce. I'd love it to be as strong as Irelands Kerry Food Groups and Origin Green but that's the sort of thing an independent nation can go for. Instead of the UK starving Scotland of CAP funds.

    All of which is completely irrelevant. You made a claim - one of a number - which I have shown to be utterly false. Making another, completely different, claim has no bearing on the discussion. Like all of your numbers so far particularly those related to trade and the EU you have been shown to be talking out of your backside.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    Dair said:

    saddened said:



    He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky facts.

    The fact that Scotland is 8.3% of the UK Population?

    Here's his numbers again

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.
    But in fairness Dair, there are a lot of fat bastards in Scotland who eat more than their share.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @SquareRoot
    And Ozzie is? Another five years of him sitting on his bum looking vacantly into space and cribbing from the Brown play book of fantasy economics might work, but I am not as confident as you that it is by any means certain.
    Under the headlines and flag waving, we are heading towards the rocks while our economics are being decided by the financial equivalent of the "billiard ball of fate" on the executives desk.
    I repeat, I will vote for anybody that at least peers over the bow to check if the result is insane or not.
  • YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?

    That lot adds up to 95%. Do people think that might be a bit high?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,041
    Dair said:

    saddened said:



    He'd have gotten away with it if it wasn't for those pesky facts.

    The fact that Scotland is 8.3% of the UK Population?

    Here's his numbers again

    12% of the UK cereal crop
    10% of the UK pig production
    9% of the UK dairy herd
    20% of the UK sheep production
    30% of the UK Beef production
    4% of the UK fruit and veg.
    You forgot: 80% of the UK comments on PB!
  • coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127

    When were the Tories last 3% ahead with you gove? Must be some while back.. Meantime GIN1138 needs to switch to Bombay Sapphire.. His predictions are in the Ed is crap range at the moment.

    I hope and pray its a genuine movement and not a blip. Hopefully the closer we get reality of an ED Govt will prove to horrible to contemplate...

    Why anyone thinks Yvette would make a good Labour leader is beyond me.. She really squawked in the HOC today.

    It actually tells you in the tweet giving you todays poll.
    Thanks I was too busy being amazed at the actual figs.
    Always here to help.
    Amazed at actual figures that just show its still neck and neck with
    the parties level taking into account M O E for most of the last
    30 polls? You are easily amazed

    This Youguv poll and the barmy Ashcroft polls which even Dan Hodges
    dismisses as too daft to laugh at still all see Mili junior easily
    taking over in just a few weeks so its surprising
    to see so much tragic deluded PB Tory happiness about them.

    Still when youve been as electorally unsuccesful as the Blues
    these last 23 years I guess any tiny ray of hope is something to
    cling on to



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    RobD said:

    You forgot: 80% of the UK comments on PB!

    What percentage of UK turnip production comes from Scotland...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,937
    3% lead with YouGov eh?

    The soufflé is rising nicely..... Another 1 in 200 of the voters switching to the blues each week up to the election will easily see us as largest party by votes and seats.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025

    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?

    That lot adds up to 95%. Do people think that might be a bit high?
    Well since the SNP have been hovering around 4% of the UK figure it does seem to be yes. Although a lot more of what used to be others are now getting a name check.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,386
    How do we stand with EICIPM vs EMWNBPM with today's polls?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Best polls for Tories for a while.

    We have been here before will it last more than a day this time?
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    edited March 2015
    Just watching benefits britain. I don want to have a winge and just call them all lazy sods, though its clear a few are.

    One of them was, frankly depressing. A woman with a very small child. She obviously is a good mother and cares deeply about her child, but she seems to have no idea about how to budget her inexplicably small income.

    One scene is her telling us how physically hungry she gets sometimes, she says her stomach is eating itself from the inside, and she even feinted due to hunger.

    The next scene is her pondering over a ready prepared £3 salmon frozen dinner, and her complaining she couldnt afford it, and then goes to buy some packeted offers.

    Now whats frustrating is that no one needs to be in the position. If she is that short of money, dont waste £2 on some pasta sauces which will make two meals. Buy a gigantic 3kg bag of pasta for £3. Buy some cheese sauce granules for about £2 and youll have enough food to feed you for ten days.

    The same with potatoes, buy a big 25kg bag of potatoes, again, thats another ten days of food.

    Yes, these foods are boring, but you will not feel hungry eating them. Get some cheap offcuts of pork, which can be had for eye wateringly low prices compared to other meats, fry them up with these.

    Its as if no one has explained to her how to cook her own food.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,133

    Tom Newton Dunn ‏@tnewtondunn
    YouGov/Sun poll tonight: 3 point Tory lead, biggest since Jan '12. CON 35%, LAB 32%, UKIP 15%, LD 7% GN 6%. Genuine movement or just a blip?

    OF COURSE it's just a blip!
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited March 2015
    Come on Sunil, off your arse and show us your Elbow for the week so far............
    And the month.......
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,025
    A very good polling day for the Tories. One of a few Mondays that have been favourable. It will start to get more significant if they can hold those sorts of leads through the week.
  • Best polls for Tories for a while.

    We have been here before will it last more than a day this time?

    It already has! Haven't you noticed BJO ..... the Tories are winning poll after poll after poll?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,411

    Best polls for Tories for a while.

    We have been here before will it last more than a day this time?

    It already has! Haven't you noticed BJO ..... the Tories are winning poll after poll after poll?
    Still confident of the sub 284.5 bet ?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,312

    Smarmeron said:

    @Alanbrooke
    I think you might be gilding the lilly a bit by calling it a "plan".
    But the simple facts are that the market has the sole objective of maximising profit, And as long as there is a housing crisis, the laws of supply and demand will ensure a handsome return.
    A point I continually labour on here,. The market has its uses, but it is not a panacea.

    Compared to what was there previously it's the whole genome of humanity.

    As for your comment the market on supply and demand in housing in the Uk is mostly influenced by land availability and price. This is a joint stitch up between the govt which makes it hard to get land and private sellers who want their asset to inflate. The government is as culpable as the private sector on this. Nul points all round.
    So what's the best way of increasing land supply? I'd go for deregulating cities, but that probably wouldn't be enough.

  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456
    edited March 2015
    notme said:

    Just watching benefits britain. I don want to have a winge and just call them all lazy sods, though its clear a few are.

    One of them was, frankly depressing. A woman with a very small child. She obviously is a good mother and cares deeply about her child, but she seems to have no idea about how to budget her inexplicably small income.

    One scene is her telling us how physically hungry she gets sometimes, she says her stomach is eating itself from the inside, and she even feinted due to hunger.

    The next scene is her pondering over a ready prepared £3 salmon frozen dinner, and her complaining she couldnt afford it, and then goes to buy some packeted offers.

    Now whats frustrating is that no one needs to be in the position. If she is that short of money, dont waste £2 on some pasta sauces which will make two meals. Buy a gigantic 3kg bag of pasta for £3. Buy some cheese sauce granules for about £2 and youll have enough food to feed you for ten days.

    The same with potatoes, buy a big 25kg bag of potatoes, again, thats another ten days of food.

    Yes, these foods are boring, but you will not feel hungry eating them. Get some cheap offcuts of pork, which can be had for eye wateringly low prices compared to other meats, fry them up with these.

    Its as if no one has explained to her how to cook her own food.

    absolutely agree, people have forgotten how to cook from scratch, our local farm does a huge sack of potatoes for under £5, could feed a family for a week, you can buy three whole chickens for £10, shoulder of pork £2.99 a kilo, Lidl do bags of penne pasta for 29p and tomato passata for 35p, there is no need for people to be hungry in UK if they can be arsed to cook
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Best polls for Tories for a while.

    We have been here before will it last more than a day this time?

    It already has! Haven't you noticed BJO ..... the Tories are winning poll after poll after poll?
    No I haven't noticed a consecutive 2 days of Tory leads

    Did i miss something?
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108


    All of which is completely irrelevant. You made a claim - one of a number - which I have shown to be utterly false. Making another, completely different, claim has no bearing on the discussion. Like all of your numbers so far particularly those related to trade and the EU you have been shown to be talking out of your backside.

    Ah so on top of your lie about UK BoP you now think Scotland providing 30% of UK Beef from 8.3% of the population is irrelevant. I actually feel sorry for you Kippers, you are doomed to either get what you don't want or get what you DO want and end up in penury.

    But hey, keep making up numbers and lying about what you wait the previous day. I'm sure every Kipper will believe you. Shame they are already Kippers and aren't adding to your deranged mob.
  • 3% lead with YouGov eh?

    The soufflé is rising nicely..... Another 1 in 200 of the voters switching to the blues each week up to the election will easily see us as largest party by votes and seats.

    Yep, the tide seems at last to be turning but as I mentioned on an earlier thread today much more is needed and soon to push the Blues over the 300 seat mark and into a position to form the next government.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited March 2015
    Breaking from the Pragmatic Communist Party.

    World production is finite, debt is infinite.
    We are looking for a new constitution to take into account this amazing fact.
    Please help?
  • coolagornacoolagorna Posts: 127

    Best polls for Tories for a while.

    We have been here before will it last more than a day this time?

    It already has! Haven't you noticed BJO ..... the Tories are winning poll after poll after poll?
    No I haven't noticed a consecutive 2 days of Tory leads

    Did i miss something?


    No you didnt miss anything

    Poll after poll after poll in PB Tory language = 1 Ashcroft Poll
    which no one takes seriously given their weird fluctuations and
    a single You Guv poll

    Labour were ahead or level in all polls for the previous five days!!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    GIN1138 said:

    How do we stand with EICIPM vs EMWNBPM with today's polls?

    The last seven days polls clearly EICIPM


    Todays polls still EICIPM but could be start of an EMNBPM trend IMO.

    Rest of week will be important Methinks
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    kjohnw said:

    notme said:

    Just watching benefits britain. I don want to have a winge and just call them all lazy sods, though its clear a few are.

    One of them was, frankly depressing. A woman with a very small child. She obviously is a good mother and cares deeply about her child, but she seems to have no idea about how to budget her inexplicably small income.

    One scene is her telling us how physically hungry she gets sometimes, she says her stomach is eating itself from the inside, and she even feinted due to hunger.

    The next scene is her pondering over a ready prepared £3 salmon frozen dinner, and her complaining she couldnt afford it, and then goes to buy some packeted offers.

    Now whats frustrating is that no one needs to be in the position. If she is that short of money, dont waste £2 on some pasta sauces which will make two meals. Buy a gigantic 3kg bag of pasta for £3. Buy some cheese sauce granules for about £2 and youll have enough food to feed you for ten days.

    The same with potatoes, buy a big 25kg bag of potatoes, again, thats another ten days of food.

    Yes, these foods are boring, but you will not feel hungry eating them. Get some cheap offcuts of pork, which can be had for eye wateringly low prices compared to other meats, fry them up with these.

    Its as if no one has explained to her how to cook her own food.

    absolutely agree, people have forgotten how to cook from scratch, our local farm does a huge sack of potatoes for under £5, could feed a family for a week, you can buy three whole chickens for £10, shoulder of pork £2.99 a kilo, Lidl do bags of penne pasta for 29p and tomato passata for 35p, there is no need for people to be hungry in UK if they can be arsed to cook
    I felt depressed watching it. It's *really* easy to do this basic cooking. Even if all you have is a hotplate. As i said, its not exciting, but it is deeply nutritious. We lived on the cheap cuts of meat, chips, beans, and eggs. My mum made them exciting, but she was on substantially less income than what people have now. Food was never wasted.

    I dont know if its just she cant be arsed. Surely a survival instinct will kick in? Its as if she is a passive victim in her life, not an active participant.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Dair said:


    All of which is completely irrelevant. You made a claim - one of a number - which I have shown to be utterly false. Making another, completely different, claim has no bearing on the discussion. Like all of your numbers so far particularly those related to trade and the EU you have been shown to be talking out of your backside.

    Ah so on top of your lie about UK BoP you now think Scotland providing 30% of UK Beef from 8.3% of the population is irrelevant. I actually feel sorry for you Kippers, you are doomed to either get what you don't want or get what you DO want and end up in penury.

    But hey, keep making up numbers and lying about what you wait the previous day. I'm sure every Kipper will believe you. Shame they are already Kippers and aren't adding to your deranged mob.
    Yes it is irrelevant. It's a single food product that you are cherry picking. That's like saying that the proportion of whisky that Scotland produces is equivalent to the proportion of all production in the UK.

    Forget about beef that isn't even all meat let alone all food.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108

    Dair said:


    All of which is completely irrelevant. You made a claim - one of a number - which I have shown to be utterly false. Making another, completely different, claim has no bearing on the discussion. Like all of your numbers so far particularly those related to trade and the EU you have been shown to be talking out of your backside.

    Ah so on top of your lie about UK BoP you now think Scotland providing 30% of UK Beef from 8.3% of the population is irrelevant. I actually feel sorry for you Kippers, you are doomed to either get what you don't want or get what you DO want and end up in penury.

    But hey, keep making up numbers and lying about what you wait the previous day. I'm sure every Kipper will believe you. Shame they are already Kippers and aren't adding to your deranged mob.
    Yes it is irrelevant. It's a single food product that you are cherry picking. That's like saying that the proportion of whisky that Scotland produces is equivalent to the proportion of all production in the UK.

    Forget about beef that isn't even all meat let alone all food.
    Yeah so irrelevant when I go to Sainsburys there is a whole aisle of Beef against a split isle for Pork and Lamb. But it isn't just Beef. Almost every quoted item was higher than the 8.3% population share.
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