Focusing on one poll earns you a deserved obloquy – politicalbetting.com
Focusing on one poll earns you a deserved obloquy – politicalbetting.com
Our latest voting intention sees cross over. Labour move ahead by 4. Their first lead since March 2025 & highest share since Nov 24? LAB 28% (+4)?? REF 24% (-2)?? CON 22% (nc)?? LIB DEM 12% (+1)?? GREEN 8% (-3)?? SNP 2% (nc)N = 2061| Dates 24-27/7| Change w 22/7
1
Comments
Interesting no 10 have said Burnham has no plans to scrap council tax or stamp duty
Lots of wasted discussion on previous thread if so
For instance I do think a lot of people don't yet know how shady Farage's money is and SKS isn't good enough Green vote now has a reason to return back to Labour..
Sure, it can probably be actually defined, but like any loose term with the passage of time it has become a couple of basic ideological points and some slogans. No one will live up the legacy of William Henry Harrison, who could definitively state he left the country in just as good a state as it was when he took up office.
Though "no plans" covers a lot of sins. If he said he was going to scrap stamp duty it might cause a temporary housing market collapse.
August will be full of such examples.
https://bsky.app/profile/ucl-targ.bsky.social/post/3mrn3bqov322k
Participants Needed:
Aged 18–24, living in the UK, and gamble at least once per month?
Take part in a 30-minute interview exploring young adults' experiences with gambling and receive a £10 voucher.
More information here:
https://qualtrics.ucl.ac.uk/jfe/form/SV_e2HPr85eHlnglOm
Back to the drawing board.
The discussion isn't wasted as I expect they might still try to bring it in at some point. But they'll have to work out what to do about the transition period.
Even flying the kite has probably made people who were thinking of moving think twice for a year or two, especially if there’s going to be a stamp duty bill involved.
Andy Burnham will host President Zelensky at No10, with him portraying himself as a local Manchester lad and DJ as the former actor and comedian Zelensky had a crash course on becoming a President in a now war torn country invaded by Russia for a second time and is leading that country which is now been under constant daily attack since then with whole cities which have been decimated by that invasion.
Now I was no a fan of Boris Johnson and I didn't vote for him in the Conservative leadership contest, but to give him credit for his biggest legacy and that was his unconditional support before and after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. He took all the right decisions when he realised due to UK intelligence that there was going to be an imminent invasion of Ukraine by Russia and he instigated some incredible vital military support in the run up to the invasion.
I followed flightrader24 closely in the six weeks leading up to the invasion and I noted the constant RAF flights in and out of Kyiv in the build up to the invasion where we made a real effort to support Ukraine's build up of their defences while too many of our European neighbours were caught napping and didn't believe it would happen so didn't do nearly enough to step up and support them at that time. But on this occasion both US and UK military intelligence called it right when other EU/NATO countries got it wrong.
I am going to make a prediction, Burnham won't win the next GE for the Labour party and for the simple fact that the UK economy will implode domestically and neither he or his government will turn out to be fit for purpose to deal with either the domestic or the global issues we currently face and in large part it will be due to dissent on his backbenches no matter how big the Labour majority is as Westminster, Starmer has already learnt the hard way!
Both Johnson and Burnham are quirky maverick politicians who were too quick in rewarding their supporters with key Cabinet posts due to loyalty rather than merit, but when the going gets tough even with a large majority it will be interesting to see if Burnham gets the chance to make the right call on the timing of the next GE. He can't make big changes to last Labour manifesto without calling another GE to get his own mandate to do this. If he thinks the large majority of MPs he inherited are going to be like herding cats, that is going to be nothing compared to trying to herd the current disgruntled electorate in the direction of voting for another Labour majority if he gets badly wrong.
Reform are also down a little since Burnham entered No10, the Tories and LDs little changed. Indeed the Reform lead over the Tories has been slashed to almost nothing, so Kemi might have something to thank him for
I cannot even picture who would lead Reform other than Farage - I cannot imagine the Tory also-rans would be happy to go back to Tice.
This one may be an outlier, and it may be a brief bounce. But it may both or neither. What it is, is extraordinarily timely and, if an outlier, rather co-incidental.
All polls await the next one. This one, as far as it goes, tends to provide evidence to confirm the thesis that Reform is finished and Labour have handed themselves an opportunity after two years of dry desert. This is not trivial, either politically or for betting purposes.
Getting back into parliament was one. Then the leadership. Getting a poll bounce to put Labour back in contention is another one.
Next up is holding that bounce until the big announcement of his plans.
Nixon was also probably the highest IQ US President there has been since WW2 for all his faults
(e - typo)
The bit that surprises me is the empty seat
1) Do an awful lot of cocaine
and/or
2) Spend a lot of time with a hooker.
FYI, further proof that Rupert Lowe is unfit to be an MP.
To help proper small businesses, use cash.
https://x.com/RupertLowe10/status/2081422488265756965
Working out how you might managed a transition would be a big part of it, and that's not something you could do in a rush. In comparison, before vs after is a much smaller problem.
Carter (businessman and nuclear engineer) Clinton (Rhodes scholar) and Obama are somewhere up there.
Because Nixon and Harding were awful presidents but they also had achievements - Harding in getting federal finances under control and limited civil rights; Nixon - sex equality, EPA and arms control.
https://news.sky.com/story/world-cup-critics-consumed-by-hate-fifas-gianni-infantino-says-13567364
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0_iOV-Jo-4
Wot no Dry Roast?
https://x.com/AllisonMorris1/status/2081713513953640882
Factors to weigh:
Labour have got their act together, and in tennis terms, are on serve until the next election. Opposition generally is amazingly short of ideas, and being in government with the right leader can be a plus.
Polling. Reform's trend is ghastly.
The people, the leaders and their friends and what they get up to. The dodgy plutocrats.
The upper limit of their possible voter base.
The comedy by-election. and the previous by-election fails.
The £5million, and Farage exposed as one who dishes it out but can't take it.
The split between the welfarist Clacton pensioner voter relying on the state, and the libertarian wealthy who run the show, and the useless buffoons at local political level.
Tories look as if they will neither collapse, nor triumph. The right of centre is split in contesting the same seats. The Labour/LD split is across different seats.
And anyone who does leak will be subject to prosecution under the official secrets act.
On this recent poll conservatives need just one third of reform to achieve 30%
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_P_NAYxEAcY
(Parenthetically, if you haven't seen Oliver Stones "Nixon", it's well worth a watch)
https://youtu.be/j9iY2lxEZfw?si=EsWoDSkAgKKf1Rm3
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_(film)
https://news.sky.com/story/politics-latest-andy-burnham-keir-starmer-labour-12593360
Wankers.
Labour has drawn level with Reform UK in polling following the takeover of Andy Burnham as party leader and prime minister.
A survey carried out by YouGov on behalf of Sky News and The Times shows the government drawing level with Nigel Farage's party.
Reform has dominated public opinion for a significant chunk of this parliament.
Today's results come as Labour gained a slight boost after Burnham came to power, and Farage's party fell in popularity.
It is the first time that Labour has been in a position other than behind Reform UK since 14 April 2025.
The results were as follows:
Burnham was clear just now he is not scrapping stamp duty
The world cup itself was fine
Think Labour will have a sustained, solid, 10% lead by September... But will it all fall apart in the autumn, like El Gord's did?
The "split" (Con-Ref vs Lab,LD,Green) not much changed at 46-48 so the country nicely split, polarised, divided (or add any other suitable word).
The social care debate it seems is already about who will pay for it rather than what the shape of the new system will be. Let's not forget the current system is funded by local authorities so there will be considerable financial changes/challenges IF the new system is to be funded centrally and authorities have to sacrifice 60-70% of their budget (so much for devolution).
Once again, I raise the banner for both social care for children and for family carers - this has to be a comprehensive offering covering care in all its form, not just residential care for the elderly and the financial obligations/responsibilties of the family need to be clearly laid out in terms of assets, charges on property and future inheritance issues.
Another aspect is the blocking of hospital beds by elderly patients requiring respite care in a residential facility rather than hospital care - we need a care system which frees up hospital space and increases residential care home capacity.
The problem selling all this is not everyone will need or get care - some will require it for many years, others may never need it.
The argument for some form of insurance to cover care hits that obstacle, barrier, iceberg (or add any other suitable word).
Are the ECHR and Net Zero the only ways to get human rights and green policies (obviously unconnected to Green policies)?
In fact, he would be far better off doing it well in advance in a general election in hope of the benefits smothering the controversies by the time the votes were cast. The other way around, as Theresa May and Stanley Baldwin could explain to you, tends to be sub-optimal in electoral terms.
The USA's trade deficit, weak border control, freeloading of other NATO countries.
Trump's problems include his solutions generally being misconceived and incompetently applied.
Together with all the self-pitying, uncouth, thuggish, corrupt behaviour with negative effects on both short and long term.
If the science is correct about CO2 and climate change, net zero (meaning that we do not net add to the CO2 in the atmosphere) is the only available solution SFAICS.
Kemi is, IMO, speaking with forked tongue. She is not technically opposed to net zero, she is opposed to the timetable of 2050. She may well be right of course that this can't be done. But her manner of speaking about it constantly gives comfort and cover to denialists. I don't think she ever emphasises the importance of achieving net zero. The denialists may be right of course, though I doubt it.
Kemi mirrors Reform. Nowhere in their official documentation are they climate denialists. But their words and actions uniformly are contemptuous of efforts towards net zero in any time scale. They too are forked tongued.
The week of small feelgood announcements was a smart way to buy some time, but you can't do that indefinitely.
http://www.conservativemanifesto.com/1987/1987-conservative-manifesto.shtml
We will legislate in the first Session of the new Parliament to abolish the unfair domestic rating system and replace rates with a fairer Community Charge.
This will be a fixed rate charge for local services paid by those over the age of 18, except the mentally ill and elderly people living in homes and hospitals. The less-well-off and students will not have to pay the full charge but everyone will be aware of the costs as well as the benefits of local services.
Until the moment they realised that it would cost them more...